On Point

Epizode

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  ep 384 | The week ahead - Earnings roll on as markets endure massive volatility 01.08.2026 15min

  It’ll be another busy week of corporate earnings releases too, with close to 140 more S&P 500 companies scheduled to report. A wide range of sectors will be represented, with some of the highlights likely to be Caterpillar, McDonald's,Disney, Uber and Republic Services. SpaceX will announce its inaugural result as a listed company, while we'll also hear from healthcare heavyweights Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk.
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  ep 383 | The OCR is headed higher, but is the economy? 28.07.2026 10min

  The dust has settled on the Reserve Bank’s July hike in the Official Cash Rate, the first in three years. There’s been plenty of debate about whether that was the right move or not, but developments since then (like stronger inflation and a rise in oil prices) suggest it probably was. However, we've also seen some early signs of recovery across the economy, which might put us in good stead to withstand higher borrowing costs.
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  ep 382 | The week ahead - Oil prices surge ahead of the Fed meeting 25.07.2026 16min

  A busy week looms, with monetary policy decisions due in the US, UK and Japan. Corporate earnings releases will also be closely watched, with some 180 S&P 500 companies scheduled to report. Tech will be very much in the spotlight as we hear from US heavyweights Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon, as well as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix in South Korea.
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  ep 381 | How the '87 crash shaped a generation 21.07.2026 10min

  The sharemarket crash of 1987 was a major global event, but it hit New Zealand harder than other countries. Our sharemarket fell much more than the likes of the US, UK and Japan, while the recovery took much longer. That scarred an generation and changed the fabric of how we invest, but are those bad memories beginning to fade?
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  ep 380 | The week ahead - Will strong earnings put markets in a better mood? 18.07.2026 14min

  A cooler US inflation reading and strong bank earnings releases weren't enough to offset the nervousness, for which there have been several catalysts. US crude oil prices are up, while hawkish comments from Fed officials pushed interest rates higher. Investors have also continued to sell chip stocks and tech exposures on the back of valuation concerns. With earnings season ramping up this week, will some strong results turn sentiment around?
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  ep 379 | Is America just built different? 08.07.2026 7min

  America has dominated the global economy for decades despite repeated predictions its best days are behind it. Is the strength of the United States due to its geographical advantages, entrepreneurial spirit or financial advantages? Let's discuss some of the reasons America has been able to repeatedly reinvent itself, and regularly prove more resilient than expected.
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  ep 378 | The week ahead - It's OCR week! Will the RBNZ hike or hold? 04.07.2026 12min

  It'll be a holiday-shortened week here in New Zealand, with markets closed for the Matariki holiday on Friday. The clear highlight will be the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decision on Wednesday, which is shaping up as a very interesting one. Market pricing implies a 76% chance of a hike, although oil prices have fallen back to well below the base case presented by the RBNZ in May, and inflation indicators in last week's ANZ Business Outlook survey were much softer as well.
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  ep 377 | How is the second half of 2026 shaping up? 30.06.2026 11min

  The first six months of the calendar year were volatile, punctuated by the conflict in Iran. Despite that, markets have performed very well. What might the second half bring, and does the recent retrenchment in oil prices clear the way for more strong gains?
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  ep 376 | The week ahead - Oil prices crash as the Strait of Hormuz reopens 27.06.2026 12min

  Oil prices fell 10% on the back of hopes for a sustained resolution in the Middle East grew. That saw US crude finish the week just below US$70, almost 40% below last month’s peak and the lowest since late February. Are we out of the woods when it comes to inflation and rising interest rate risk?
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  ep 375 | Deals and dots mean changes for central banks 22.06.2026 6min

  A few different balls are up in the air across the central banking world, and change is afoot. Recent declines in oil prices have seen the odds of OCR hikes change, while the Federal Reserve in the US has entered a new era with Kevin Warsh as Chair. We’ll get a useful sense check in a fortnight from the Reserve Bank, while the evolution of the Fed will be a longer-term theme to monitor.
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  ep 374 | Should we worry about rising government debt? 17.06.2026 7min

  Investors often ask us how worried they should be about rising government debt. It’s a very fair question, and Budget 2026 showed that New Zealand’s books remain under pressure. If you or I live beyond our means, borrow too much and can’t repay our debts, we’ll eventually run out of options. However, governments aren’t households and that’s an important distinction. How should investors think about what this means for their portfolios?
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  ep 373 | The week ahead - The Kevin Warsh era begins at the Fed 13.06.2026 14min

  Central banks will be in focus this week, with the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy decision the highlight on Thursday morning (NZ time). As well as being Kevin Warsh's inaugural meeting as Chair, we'll also get a fresh Summary of Economic Projections from the Fed. Monetary policy decisions are also due in Australia, Japan and the UK.
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  ep 372 | The SpaceX IPO is bigger than you think 09.06.2026 6min

  SpaceX is about to become one of the largest listed companies in the world, with an estimated valuation of almost US$1.8 trillion. Whether this valuation is justified is an area of intense debate right now. Some see an extraordinary growth story spanning launch services, satellite communications and artificial intelligence. Others are questioning whether a company that is not yet profitable should command such a lofty price tag. However, the more interesting story is what the SpaceX IPO tells us about the way financial markets themselves are evolving.
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  ep 371 | The week ahead - Tech stocks stumble as SpaceX prepares to debut 06.06.2026 14min

  It was a challenging end to the week on Wall Street, with the growth-heavy Nasdaq index falling 4.2% on Friday, its biggest daily decline since April last year. The S&P 500 index in the US fell 2.6% for the week, breaking a nine-week winning streak. Looking ahead, US inflation will be in the spotlight this week, with the CPI and PPI both due for release. These will come ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting, the first under new Chair Kevin Warsh.
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  ep 370 | Don't let your home bias be your downfall 02.06.2026 8min

  Wherever you go in the world, it’s very common for investors to have a home bias. People tend to anchor their portfolio with what they know, which is the local market. Kiwis will often have a healthy exposure to New Zealand shares, Australians usually start with what’s on the ASX, and Americans are renowned for not looking past their own borders. That can also feel like a safer approach, especially for newer investors. It’s not safer though, it’s much riskier.
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  ep 369 | The week ahead - Markets keep marching higher in May 30.05.2026 13min

  US shares had another great month with the S&P 500 index rising 5.1% in May. However, only three out of 11 sectors were up for the month, with a 15.9% gain from the dominant tech sector driving the overall market up. Other markets were strong too, with emerging market shares continued their stellar run and rising 9.5% in May. That sees them up 24.8% year-to-date and up 49.7% in the past 12 months! The local NZX 50 finished May 2.6% higher, its first positive month in three and the strongest since September 2025.
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  ep 368 | Why inflation expectations are so important right now 26.05.2026 7min

  We’ve seen a lot of economic releases over the last several weeks, but the most important of all were probably the two that covered inflation expectations. It might sound odd that what people think might happen trumps what’s actually happening across the economy, but right now that’s very much the case. Expectations matter because they influence behaviour, and behaviour drives outcomes. That’s especially so when it comes to inflation.
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  ep 367 | The week ahead - Will the RBNZ hike or hold the OCR? 23.05.2026 15min

  A massive week looms here in New Zealand. The RBNZ will deliver its latest policy decision on Wednesday and while there is only an outside chance of an OCR hike, markets expect the RBNZ to lay the groundwork for moves at the following meeting. A day later we'll get Budget 2026, which is shaping as a very challenging one to deliver in an election year.
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  ep 366 | The sharemarket that’s been crushing the US 17.05.2026 6min

  The US sharemarket has had a great run of late, rebounding strong from the March lows and hitting fresh highs. The S&P 500 is now up more than eight per cent in 2026 (including dividends), and we're only a third of the way through the year. That's impressive, especially given the volatility we've seen lately. However, while the S&P 500 is getting all the headlines there's another quietly outperforming it, and by a wide margin.
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  ep 365 | What might OCR hikes mean for markets? 13.05.2026 7min

  The Reserve Bank meets later this month, and there’s an outside chance the Official Cash Rate (OCR) will rise by 0.25%. If there’s no move this week, the focus will shift to the July meeting, where markets see an increase as almost certain. What might it mean for the economy, financial markets and investors?