Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo

Epizode

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  A mild rise in tariffs in the US and its impact on SA agriculture 24.07.2026 5min

  The U.S. government has raised tariffs against several countries under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, on the Acts, Policies, and Practices of 60 Economies Related to the Failure of Each Economy to Impose and Effectively Enforce a Prohibition on the Importation of Goods Produced with Forced Labour[1]. The South African government, private sector, and organised agriculture made submissions to the U.S. authorities against this rise in tariffs. But that message and clarification didn't find a fertile ear.   •⁠ ⁠A rise in tariffs that South Africa faces in the U.S. from 10% to 12.5% is not ideal, but the agricultural sector could still do better given where we are coming from: a 30% tariff. Importantly, the US has raised tariffs for a range of countries, including some of South Africa's agricultural competitors, such as Australia, Peru, and Chile, which are also at these levels. Notably, oranges, fruit juices, and nuts are still exempt from these tariffs.   •⁠ ⁠The U.S. remains an important market for South Africa’s agriculture, accounting for about 4% of our agricultural exports of US$15.1 billion in 2025. The main exported products include citrus, berries, grapes, wine, fruit juices, apples, pears, apricots, and nuts.
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  South Africa’s consumer food price inflation continues to slow 22.07.2026 6min

  The figures released by Statistics South Africa this morning show that consumer food price inflation slowed to 1.4% in June 2026, from 1.6% in May. This is the lowest level since December 2010.
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  Will El Niño drought hit food prices in South Africa? Earlier rains and grain stocks offer hope 21.07.2026 3min

  The likely impact of the expected El Niño on South Africa’s agriculture and food prices in 2027 is a major point of discussion among analysts and economists in the country. By mid-2026, weather forecasts were signalling that the world was heading towards a severe El Niño. The El Niño weather phenomenon tends to have varying impacts on the many regions of the world. For southern Africa, it typically presents drought, which is negative for agricultural production. The arrival of the likely drought is due to coincide with South Africa’s 2026-27 summer crop season. In my work as an agricultural economist and visiting various farming regions across South Africa, I believe that in examining the likely impact of this El Niño on crop production and, subsequently, on consumer food price inflation, two major factors need to be considered. Listen to the podcast for more.
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  South Africa’s maize harvest process is roughly 14% behind last year’s pace 13.07.2026 10min

  The farmers have so far delivered 6.4 million tonnes of maize to commercial silos. This season is running 14% behind last season's pace. The delays in the start of the season and the longer rainfall period are among the key reasons for this. South Africa is poised to harvest an ample 17.25 million tonnes of maize, the largest harvest on record. Listen to the podcast for more.
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  Renewed strikes in the Middle East present risks to farming input costs 09.07.2026 8min

  On July 6, 206, I flagged in a note to the South African agribusinesses that we are beginning to see the benefits of the likely memorandum of understanding between Iran and the U.S. aimed at ending the war on agricultural input prices. Fertiliser and fuel prices have declined notably from the levels we saw as recently as May 2026. That said, uncertainty remains, and it increasingly appears that the talks may end or be paused without a deal given the renewed strikes in the region. This once again presents the immense risk and uncertainty surrounding ship movements in the Strait of Hormuz. Over the past few weeks, as the peace talks were progressing in a promising direction, we saw the benefits in the relief for fertiliser and fuel prices. The recent strikes introduce new risks to the likelihood of affordable fertiliser and fuel prices going forward, particularly if we see yet another holdup on ship movements in the region. There is considerable uncertainty now about how the neighbouring countries would react to these recent developments. From a South African perspective, we remain concerned that as the start of the 2026-27 season nears, the fuel and fertiliser prices mustn’t see another surge. South Africa is roughly three months away from the start of the 2026-27 summer crop season in mid-October 2026. Farmers typically place input orders well before the start of the season. Still, given that the current 2025-26 summer crop season is over a month late and maize harvest is still underway, the placement of input orders for the next season may also be slightly delayed. The combined cost of fuel and fertiliser typically accounts for around half of the input costs in field crops. Thus, we worry about the renewed war action, which presents risks to input prices. Having such a substantial share of input costs rising at a time when commodity prices were falling meant that some farmers would be in a tough financial corner. Already, the possibility of financial pressures led some people to question whether South African farmers would leave some land fallow for a season. Listen to the podcast for more.
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  South Africa’s consumer food price inflation is at its lowest level in 17 months 17.06.2026 7min

  South Africa’s consumer food price inflation continues to slow. The figures released by Statistics South Africa this morning show that the consumer food price inflation slowed to 1.6% in May 2026, down from 2.8% in March. This is the lowest level in 17 months. There was a broad deceleration across the various food products. At the core of moderating consumer food price inflation are lower prices for grains and oilseeds, fruit, and vegetables, driven by ample domestic and global supplies. We continue to believe that meat poses minimal risks to inflation, and meat price inflation has slowed in recent months. Base effects on meat prices, along with continued cattle slaughter, have helped ease price inflation. Poultry production conditions are also favourable.
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  South Africa’s farming fortunes are positive at the start of 2026 17.06.2026 10min

  The South African farming sector had a broadly positive start to 2026. This is notwithstanding the challenges posed by foot-and-mouth disease in cattle, African swine fever in the pig industry, and floods in the northeastern regions of South Africa at the start of the year. Still, higher economic activity across field crops and horticulture sufficiently supported growth in the sector. The figures released on June 9, 2026, by Statistics South Africa show that the country’s agricultural gross value added expanded by 3.9% quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted) in the first quarter of 2026, from a 0.4% in the last quarter of 2025. These robust growth figures also align with the strong trade figures for the first quarter. For example, in the first quarter of 2026, South Africa's agricultural exports totalled US$3.7 billion, up 11% from the same period a year ago, according to data from Trade Map. Better exports were a function of both higher export volumes across various products and higher commodity prices. Listen to the podcast for more context and the outlook for the year.
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  Recent floods are another headwind for South Africa’s agricultural growth 20.05.2026 7min

  We are likely in another year of mixed fortunes in South Africa’s agriculture. At an aggregate level, we believe that the sector is likely to see some growth this year. However, the subsector view will show significant divergence, as various parts of the sector face an array of pressures. One of these is the ongoing spread of animal diseases, which remains a big risk for livestock farmers. Another source of strain is the recent floods, which will put pressure on some industries. That said, conditions remain favourable for some subsectors. Listen to the note for broad reflections. Listen to the podcast for more information. Richard Humphries, Sam Mkokeli, Nelisiwe Tshabalala, and Aamanda Murimba produce this podcast.
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  South Africa’s agriculture starts the year with strong jobs gains, but there are risks ahead 12.05.2026 6min

  The South African agricultural sector continues to create more jobs. In the first quarter of 2026, farm jobs increased by 3% from the same period a year earlier to 960k jobs (up by 1% from the last quarter of 2025). This uptick in agricultural employment is unsurprising as the sector has generally enjoyed favourable production conditions in 2025 through to the start of this year. The industries that have faced challenges are beef, dairy, and pork producers due to foot-and-mouth disease, and the pork industry due to African swine fever. Other subsectors have generally experienced favourable production conditions, partly due to La Niña-induced rains and the expansion of agricultural activity. The provinces that have shown annual job growth are the Western Cape, Eastern Cape, Free State, North West, and Limpopo. The job gains in these provinces helped to overshadow the decline registered in other provinces of the country. But going into 2027, there are risks ahead. The higher input costs, fuel and fertiliser, because of the Middle East war, along with expected El Niño drought, are some of the risks that could weigh on the sector and on employment conditions from now on. Listen to the podcast for more information.
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  South Africa sees strong agricultural machinery sales in April, but the path ahead is uncertain 11.05.2026 7min

  Agricultural machinery sales remain robust in South Africa, supported by orders some farmers likely placed before the current global challenges. The farmers’ finances over the past few months were boosted by the ample harvest in the 2024-25 season, on the back of beneficial La Niña rains. Therefore, in our interpretation of these recent sales, we ought to be careful not to view the data as an indication that the agricultural sector is unaffected by rising input costs, lower agricultural commodity prices, and lingering uncertainty about the weather outlook heading into the 2026-27 season. In April, tractor sales totalled 548 units, up 4% from the same period a year ago, according to data from the South African Agricultural Machinery Association. The combine harvest sales amounted to 52 units, up by 13% from April 2025. This uptick in sales comes after a slight slump in March 2026 sales, a change from a 14-month period of strong tractor sales on the back of better harvests in the past few seasons. But the path ahead is uncertain. We explain more in here.
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  Two points about the uncertain weather outlook and its impact on South Africa’s agriculture over the coming months 03.05.2026 7min

  Firstly, there’s a growing likelihood that we’re entering the onset of an El Niño event. This will likely begin around October 2027, which is the start of the 2026-27 summer season. The South African Weather Service (SAWS) highlighted this in their report today, 1 May 2026. Depending on the severity of the El Niño, it will likely negatively affect agricultural activity in South Africa and across Southern Africa. Secondly, South Africa has experienced favourable rainfall at the start of the 2026-27 winter crop season. However, we may encounter below-normal rainfall later in the season, which could impact the production of wheat, barley, canola and oats this year. Overall, in the coming weeks and months, we’ll need to closely monitor weather developments. The outlook is concerning across the board.
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  Canola production in South Africa may reach a fresh high in 2026-27 28.04.2026 5min

  Many agricultural crops and value chains have shown dramatic progress in recent years. They should serve as an inspiration for further growth of this sector. I often write about South Africa's soybean success story, whose production increased from 67,700 tonnes in the 1993-94 production season to an expected record harvest of 2,8 million tonnes in 2025-26. This, in turn, has been driven by increased demand for high-protein foods, particularly poultry products. But soybeans aren't the only success story in South Africa's vegetable oils cluster. Canola is one of South Africa's agricultural success stories. Since South African farmers began commercial planting of the crop on 17,000 hectares in 1998-99, the area has increased to an estimated 174,515 hectares in 2025-26. For the 2026-27 season, the farmers plan to increase the area to 189,175 hectares. Like soybeans, the catalyst behind the increase in canola plantings, among other things, is a rise in domestic demand or usage for oils and oilcake. There has also been a switch in some areas from wheat to canola due to higher profitability in recent times. South Africa is now a net canola exporter, having shipped to countries such as Germany and Belgium in recent years. Canola is a winter crop. Hence, production is primarily in the Western Cape, a winter-rainfall region in South Africa. Considering the farmers' intentions to plant 189,175 hectares, up by 8% from the previous season. If we assume relatively favourable weather conditions and a decent yield, applying a five-year average yield of 1,89 tonnes per hectare, South Africa could harvest 357,541 tonnes, up 16% from the previous season. This could be a fresh high. Admittedly, it is still too early to tell with certainty where the canola crop harvest will be and whether farmers will successfully plant the area they intend to till. The key determinant will be the weather conditions, amongst other things. Placing the current weather forecasts aside, I think it's fair to say that canola is one of the success stories of South Africa's agriculture, alongside the soybean industry and many of our fruits. Listen to the podcast for more information.
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  Will the current rains distort grain quality in South Africa? 27.04.2026 8min

  We are late in the 2025-26 summer grains and oilseed season. Farmers in some regions have already started harvesting the crop. South Africa is set to have its largest grain harvest on record, about 20.8 million tonnes. But will the recent rains not cause quality issues? Or will they help supplement soil moisture ahead of the start of the 2026-27 season? Listen to the podcast for more.
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  Are cooling agricultural equipment sales in South Africa a temporary blip? 12.04.2026 7min

  Last week, the South African Agricultural Machinery Association released its monthly agricultural machinery sales report for March 2026. To some observers of the South African agricultural sector, the report signalled a change from the long period of strong tractor and combine harvesters sales to a much slower pace. Tractor sales declined for the first time in 14 months, down 8% year-on-year, to 618 units. At the same time, combine harvester sales fell by 22% from March 2025 to 29 units. While such a decline is not desirable, it is also not alarming, and we should be careful not to read too much into the state of the sector from a one-month slowdown in agricultural machinery sales. Moreover, the March 2026 tractor and combine harvest sales levels remain well above the long-term averages. Therefore, the base effects are also another factor to consider when interpreting these data. Indeed, the Middle East war and concerns about fuel prices have, to an extent, negatively impacted the sector, as reflected in the first-quarter results of the Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI). Listen to the podcast for more information.
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  The Western Cape farmers face an immediate challenge from the Middle East war 06.04.2026 6min

  In these times of conversations about the impact of high fuel and fertiliser prices on agriculture, the region of South Africa I find myself thinking about the most right now is the Western Cape. The Western Cape produces much of our winter crops: half of South Africa’s winter wheat, and the majority of our barley, canola and oats. Planting of these crops begins at the end of this month. Some farmers likely bought their fertiliser before the start of this war and benefited from better prices. But some may not have bought it then and will have to start planting at these higher fertiliser prices. As I have said before, fertiliser accounts for 35% of South African grain farmers’ input costs, and fuel accounts for about 13%, meaning roughly half of the input cost component is exposed to the challenges posed by the ongoing war in the Middle East. It is unclear how many farmers also managed to secure fuel before the recent hikes. But the core point is that South Africa is starting the 2026-27 winter crop season at a challenging time. Things would have been better if the previous winter crop season in 2025-26 had been excellent. But it was not. Farmers across the Western Cape had to replant their crops twice or more. There was a snail infestation that attacked the seedlings. Spraying and replanting meant farmers incurred even higher input costs than in normal seasons. What made things worse is that these commodities are traded on the global market, where their prices are determined. Farmers don’t have the market power to pass on costs directly to consumers. Therefore, they were strained from the previous season. We are now starting the 2026-27 season from that back foot. We will know how much area they intend to plant at the end of this month when the Crop Estimates Committee releases the farmers’ intentions-to-plant data. As bleak as these views are, from a consumer perspective, there should be no cause for concern in the near term. The world is awash with wheat, keeping prices under pressure. But the downside for farmers is that it weighs on their profitability, in a season when input costs are already higher due to the war. For example, the International Grains Council forecasts 2025-26 global wheat production at a record 842 million tonnes, up 5% year-on-year. This is due to ample harvests in the EU, Russia, the U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan, among others. It is partly these ample global supplies and lower global wheat prices that have led to calls to increase the domestic wheat import tariff. The wheat import tariff exists to provide some level of protection for domestic wheat producers while ensuring that consumer welfare is not sacrificed in the process. The key is to find some level of balance. At this time, when farmers are under pressure, we will be thinking more about this at the policy level. Ultimately, we are entering a stressful season for farmers, but consumers are getting a breather from ample global wheat supplies. -Wandile Sihlobo Presidential Envoy on Agriculture and Land
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  The African continent is at the heart of South Africa’s agricultural export success 30.03.2026 7min

  When we consider exports in South Africa’s agriculture, we typically overlook the importance of the African continent. Such an approach is wrong; the continent is central to our agricultural export success so far. In 2025, South Africa’s agriculture exported a record US$15.1 billion, up 10% from a year ago. Nearly half of these exports went to the African continent. Indeed, the continent’s prominence differs product by product. Still, there is no way we would have been able to enjoy this export success, where we are now ranked 32nd among global agricultural exporters and the only African country in the top 40, without the preferential access to the broader continent. As we continue to work to access more of Asia, the Middle East, and various parts of the world, it's equally important to take a step back and acknowledge the value this continent has played in our agricultural success journey. We discuss more in this podcast.
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  The Middle East remains a key potential export market for South Africa’s agriculture 26.03.2026 7min

  South Africa's agricultural exports to the Middle East, worth US$1.3 billion in 2025, or 8% of overall agricultural exports, are at risk from this crisis. Shipping costs are rising. Agricultural businesses that export to the Middle East will now be exploring whether other markets can absorb their products. South Africa's citrus, strawberry, and maize harvest seasons will soon begin across the country, and as the conflict in the Middle East drags on, trade interruptions will persist. While the conflict will impose major costs on businesses, South Africa must remain focused on its long-term agricultural export growth strategy, which targets the Middle East as a key market. In times of peace and reconstruction, this region would be a key agricultural export market. We believe there remains room to increase exports in peacetime.
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  Is it not too soon to be considering food price increases in South Africa? 18.03.2026 6min

  South Africa indeed transports much of its agriculture and food products by road. For example, 80% of South African staple grain products are transported by road. We see similar volumes in other commodities. Agricultural products are also processed in certain regions and then transported to various consumption points. This means that fuel price changes affect food prices through adjustments in distribution costs. Still, such fuel price changes in some products take a while to be passed through. Therefore, any sudden worry or urge to adjust prices is something to watch closely. There is still a lot we don’t know about this Middle Eastern war, including how long it will last. Indeed, all indications point to a potential notable increase in fuel prices this coming month. Still, it is probably fair to assume that we won’t see a sudden jump in most food products, as there are various adjustments the many role-players have to make and time lags. I typically don’t encourage unnecessary close monitoring of food price adjustments, but if we continue to see such headlines, it may be useful to pay attention to these things. We are already seeing worrying price increases in farm inputs in some regions of our country.
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  South Africa will likely miss its maize export forecast for the 2025-26 marketing year 16.03.2026 8min

  South Africa may miss its maize export forecast of 2.4 million tonnes for the 2025-26 marketing year, which ends in April. The exports so far are at 1.7 million tonnes as of the first week of March 2026. Given a softer weekly export pace, it is unlikely that the country will see strong enough momentum in the remaining weeks of the current marketing year to reach the 2.4 million tonnes seasonal forecast for maize exports. The challenge is the softer global demand, not supply availability. I discuss this issue further in the podcast and its implications for the sector and maize users. Listen to the podcast for more.
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  Why are South African farmers feeling downbeat about business conditions in the country? 12.03.2026 10min

  A day after we received robust agricultural GDP data, showing that the sector’s gross value added grew by 17.4% year-on-year in 2025, following a -8.4% year-on-year contraction in 2024, some may wonder why the sentiment indicators suggest a subdued mood. In data released on March 11, we learned that after rising for much of last year, the Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI) fell by 18 points in Q1 2026 to 49, the lowest level since Q3 2024. The current ACI level of 49 is just under the 50-neutral mark, suggesting that South African agribusinesses are becoming somewhat pessimistic about business conditions in the country. But this story requires some context; we provide it in this podcast.