Moving Markets

Geopolitics push oil higher while AI momentum powers US markets 02.06.2026 11min

Markets were mixed yesterday, with Middle East tensions driving a sharp rise in oil and weighing on sentiment. European equities edged lower, while all three major US indices reached fresh highs, supported by strong momentum in AI-linked names. Macro data showed a divided backdrop — resilient manufacturing in Asia, slowing growth and rising cost pressures in the Eurozone, modest but improving trends in Switzerland, and solid momentum in the US. Today, we were joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, who provided a deep-dive into cybersecurity, highlighting the sector’s remarkable rebound and why it is becoming increasingly mission critical, even more so in the age of AI.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (06:58) - What's behind the cybersecurity rebound?: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation (10:17) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets boosted by AI as they shrug off the lack of a deal 01.06.2026 11min

US equity indices closed the week at new record highs, topping off a winning month as tech stocks once again provided the momentum. Despite no agreement emerging between the US and Iran, and indeed continued strikes over the weekend, many of Asia’s key indices also saw gains this morning with the Kospi and Nikkei 225 soaring to new heights. It’s therefore timely that Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, joins the podcast today to discuss his thoughts on whether US equities are now overbought; why a previous laggard sub-sector might now help drive the IT sector even higher, and whether mega IPOs have historically lived up to their hype.(00:00) - Introduction: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (01:20) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (07:15) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (11:00) - Closing remarks: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The View Beyond: Waiting for the gold rally to resume 30.05.2026 19min

After a period of relative calm, gold has re-emerged as a focal point for investors amid geopolitics, shifting central bank strategies, and evolving global demand. How should investors interpret gold’s recent volatility, and what does the outlook hold as we move through 2026?In this episode of Julius Baer’s Moving Markets:The View Beyond, Ayako Lehmann is joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, and Chris Irwin, Head of FX and Precious Metals Trading Asia at Julius Baer, to discuss the drivers behind gold’s remarkable run, the impact of central bank activity, and the changing dynamics of investment demand. The conversation covers gold’s behaviour during recent global shocks, the significance of central bank buying (and selling), the evolving role of ETFs, and the influence of Asian and Indian markets. The episode concludes with an outlook for gold through the remainder of 2026, highlighting both the structural and cyclical forces at play.(00:00) - Introduction (01:21) - Lessons from recent events (03:08) - The role of geopolitics in gold’s long-term performance (04:15) - Central bank buying (06:16) - A multipolar world and central bank strategies (07:10) - Investment demand and the shifting role of ETFs (09:15) - US monetary policy (10:45) - Trading trends in the US and China (12:51) - China’s investment flows and retail participation (13:44) - India’s import tax hike and its impact on gold demand (15:57) - Outlook for gold in 2026 (18:28) - Closing remarks and legal information Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US equities at all-time highs, while oil plunges in May 29.05.2026 10min

US equities surged to record highs on optimism over a potential US–Iran ceasefire extension, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 all closing at all-time highs yesterday. Oil prices fell sharply and are on track for their steepest monthly decline since March 2020. US economic data was mixed, pointing to slowing growth and increasing pressure on household finances. Technology remained the primary market driver, with strong gains in AI and tech stocks contrasting with weak momentum in Bitcoin. Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory Geneva, highlights gold being at critical levels, the continued attractiveness of the AUD, and persistently low FX volatility.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (06:11) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva (09:41) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Oil swings and AI soars: US markets hit new highs 28.05.2026 11min

Oil prices are swinging on every twist in the Middle East, while AI continues to dominate global markets. Europe’s stocks are under pressure from high energy costs, but in the US, AI momentum is driving major indices to fresh record highs. In today’s episode, Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, dives into copper, and why electrification is set to shape markets for years to come.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (06:12) - Copper market update: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research (10:29) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

More chip makers join the USD 1 trillion market-cap club 27.05.2026 9min

Global equities extended their record rally as momentum in technology shares accelerated and geopolitical tensions eased. Micron and SK Hynix have joined the USD 1 trillion market-capitalisation club, fuelled by surging demand for AI chips. This milestone underscores the growing dominance of semiconductor companies in global markets, with ripple effects from Seoul to Silicon Valley. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why he expects this momentum to continue and shares compelling statistics on IPO returns ahead of the landmark SpaceX listing.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (05:47) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (08:33) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

AI rally meets weak consumers, and healthcare innovation 26.05.2026 13min

Despite US consumer confidence falling to a record low, the S&P 500 extended gains last week, driven by semiconductors, as AI enthusiasm remains strong and crowded. Global equities also advanced, led by Europe and Japan. Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Fed Chair, while Governor Waller emphasised inflation risks. Middle East tensions remain volatile, with shifting ceasefire prospects, US military action, and moves in oil, gold, and bonds. This week, focus turns to US PCE inflation, growth data, and key geopolitical meetings in Asia. Damian Ng, Next Generation Research, talks about why the recent outbreak of the Ebola virus demonstrates the need to invest in health system innovation, as well as covering key investment trends in healthcare.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (05:48) - Why Ebola demonstrates the need to invest in health system innovation: Damien Ng, Next Generation Research (12:05) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The View Beyond: From petrodollars to a new world order? 23.05.2026 16min

The petrodollar system has long been a cornerstone of global finance, underpinning the US dollar’s dominance for decades. But as energy markets shift, and talk of de-dollarisation grows louder, is this system now fading? And what could that mean for the future global order?In this episode of The View Beyond, Jan Bopp is joined by Julius Baer’s currency strategist, David Meier, and Norbert Rücker, Head of Macro and Next Generation Research, to explore the origins and evolution of the petrodollar system, the impact of the US shale oil revolution, and the practical realities of de-dollarisation. The discussion covers the shifting correlation between oil prices and the US dollar, the significance of Saudi Arabia’s move to accept multiple currencies, and why the US dollar’s dominance remains largely unchallenged despite headlines. The episode also examines the scale of non-dollar oil trade, the role of sanctions, and the structural factors underpinning reserve currency status.(00:00) - Introduction (00:53) - What is the petrodollar system and why has it mattered? (02:44) - Geopolitics and the petrodollar narrative (03:40) - Has the petrodollar system ended or evolved? (04:33) - The US shale oil revolution (05:02) - Oil prices and the US dollar (08:00) - Saudi Arabia and the rise of multi-currency oil trade (09:02) - Sanctions and non-dollar oil markets (09:59) - De-dollarisation or diversification - what’s really happening? (11:52) - Why less oil in dollars doesn’t weaken the dollar (13:46) - What could truly challenge the US dollar’s dominance? (15:33) - Closing remarks and legal disclaimer Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets steady despite weak data and geopolitical crosscurrents 22.05.2026 12min

Markets remained choppy as weak PMI data across Europe and the UK signalled slowing growth, while US data painted a mixed but still resilient picture. Oil prices were volatile amid shifting headlines around Iran, underlining ongoing geopolitical sensitivity. Equities in both Europe and the US ended modestly higher despite intraday swings, with pockets of strength in sectors like satellites and quantum computing following fresh investment momentum. Overnight, softer inflation in Japan supported Asian markets, while US yields edged lower and the dollar held firm. Today, we were joined by Bence Boldvai from our FX & Precious Metals team, who shared insights on key themes this week, including USD/JPY dynamics and his take on metals.Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Stocks rally as oil prices and bond yields retreat on peace hopes and AI boost 21.05.2026 14min

European and US stock markets rallied yesterday after President Trump hinted that the US administration is in the final stages of an agreement to end the war with Iran. The 10-year US Treasury shaved 9 basis points off the previous session’s yield. Asian markets were further boosted overnight by an impressive set of results from NVIDIA. Warnings did come in from the Fed though, in the form of the minutes of its last meeting, which revealed a heightened level of disagreement about where rates should go next and a majority of participants highlighting that rates will need to rise if inflation runs persistently above 2%. Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, Norbert Rücker, joins today’s podcast to discuss not only the outlook for oil and energy prices, but also to explain why he is so constructive on the theme of Clean Energy. Tune in to find out more.(00:00) - Introduction: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (00:49) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (08:11) - (Clean) energy update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research (13:33) - Closing remarks: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Bond sell-off rattles markets ahead of Nvidia earnings 20.05.2026 15min

US markets dipped amid rising long-term bond yields, with the 30-year Treasury hitting the highest level in almost two decades fuelled by inflation fears and potential Fed tightening. Geopolitical tensions and key upcoming catalysts, including Nvidia’s earnings and FOMC minutes, keep investors on edge. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, explains what is behind the recent surge in bond yields and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, discusses the implications for equity markets and outlines his key message for the second half of the year.(00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (00:49) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (06:13) - Fixed income strategy update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research (09:23) - Equity strategy outlook: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research (14:14) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets caught between peace hopes and rising tensions 19.05.2026 11min

Global equities are caught between hopes for a peace deal and rising Middle East tensions, with Brent fluctuating around USD 100 per barrel. In the US, strong market breadth contrasts with weakness in technology stocks, weighing on major equity indices. Japan and Switzerland posted stronger-than-expected Q1 growth, highlighting resilience despite geopolitical tensions and high oil prices. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, discusses India’s decision to double import duties on gold and silver.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (06:07) - The impact of India's new gold tariffs: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research (10:16) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Yields surge, oil climbs: is a market reality check coming? 18.05.2026 11min

Global markets are kicking off the week on the back foot as government bond yields surge to multi-year highs, reigniting concerns about stagflation. Oil prices climbed another 2% overnight, with no quick resolution in sight for the ongoing Middle East tensions. In today’s episode, we’re joined by Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, who shares his outlook on whether US 10-year Treasury yields could reach the 5% mark. He also explains why the rally in semiconductor stocks may be due for a pause – and why that might actually be a good thing.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (01:01) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (06:08) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (10:59) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The View Beyond: The AI story behind US equity highs 16.05.2026 28min

Despite geopolitical tensions, US equity markets have reached record highs, with artificial intelligence at the heart of this surge. What is driving these historic moves? How are investors positioning themselves to both capture the opportunities and manage the risks? In this episode of The View Beyond, Bernadette Anderko is joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research at Julius Baer, and Manuel Villegas, Co-Manager of the Julius Baer Next Generation Equity Fund. They explore the rapid development of AI, the unprecedented growth in data centre infrastructure, and the evolving dynamics of the global value chain. The discussion covers the shift from AI training to inference, the critical role of memory and hardware, bottlenecks in data centre buildout, and the implications of rising capital expenditure by hyperscalers. Their conversation also examines the international nature of the AI value chain, the impact of regulatory and supply constraints, and the outlook for investors as monetisation accelerates across the sector.(00:00) - Introduction (00:56) - AI's impact on the tech landscape (03:56) - Hardware vs. software (05:22) - Capturing the AI infrastructure super cycle (09:01) - Data centre bottlenecks and constraints (10:43) - Inflationary pressures (13:27) - The politics of data centre construction (14:52) - Hyperscaler earnings (18:16) - How AI investments are translating into tangible revenues (19:49) - Performance, positioning, and valuation (20:53) - Winners, sector rotation, and the importance of Asia's supply chain (23:16) - The global nature of the AI value chain (24:22) - Scenarios for cloud computing and AI (24:56) - View on sub sectors for remainder of 2026 (27:11) - Closing remarks and legal disclaimer Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US–China progress lifts markets, but rate concerns temper tech optimism 15.05.2026 11min

Markets were driven by headlines from the Trump–Xi summit in Beijing, where progress on trade and a surprise easing of US chip export restrictions to major Chinese tech firms lifted sentiment, particularly in technology. European equities closed higher and US indices reached fresh record highs, supported by strong earnings from Cisco, although gains in Asia faded as rising Treasury yields and renewed rate hike expectations weighed on sentiment. Corporate news was mixed, while Crypto-related stocks rallied following regulatory progress. Commodities showed divergence, with oil edging higher and metals softer. Overnight, Asian equities declined broadly, led by a sharp sell-off in South Korea. In today’s show, we are joined by Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, who shares insights on the British pound, precious metals, and ongoing volatility.(00:00) - Introduction: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (00:35) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (06:41) - FX & Metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva (10:57) - Closing remarks: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Risk-off mood deepens as inflation and oil jolt markets 13.05.2026 17min

Markets showed a broad risk-off tone on Tuesday, with equities weaker and bond yields moving higher. Oil prices surged as hopes for a US–Iran deal faded, stoking inflation concerns after stronger-than-expected US inflation data. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, explains the implications for bond markets and shares his view on UK gilts amid ongoing political turmoil. And Nenad Dinic, Equity Strategist, explains why he likes the Communications sector and highlights areas of strength and weakness within European equities.(00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (00:52) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (06:52) - Fixed income strategy update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research (10:59) - Equity strategy rating changes: Nenad Dinic, Equity Strategy Research (15:59) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US tech rally continues while Europe lags and oil climbs 12.05.2026 11min

European markets were weighed down by declines in the luxury sector yesterday, as concerns over weakening global demand dampened sentiment. In contrast, major US indices reached fresh record highs, led by strong gains in the technology sector. Meanwhile, oil prices are climbing again this morning amid signs that the Middle East ceasefire may be unravelling. Today, we are joined by Dr. Damien Ng from Next Generation Research, who will share his insights on the hantavirus outbreak and the role genomics and digital health tools are playing.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (06:21) - Genomics & digital health tools tackling the Hantavirus: Damien Ng, Next Generation Research (10:41) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US equities up for six weeks in a row 11.05.2026 11min

Strong earnings and resilient jobs data are prompting markets to rule out rate cuts this year. Semiconductor stocks continue to lead gains across the US and Asia, with South Korea and Japan hitting new highs, supported by AI investment. Inflation pressures reflected in China’s data release, rising oil prices amid a fragile Middle East ceasefire, and broader geopolitical risks remain in focus ahead of a busy week of data and events, including inflation releases from the US, Germany and Japan, the Trump–Xi meeting, the King’s Speech in the UK, and Kevin Warsh taking over the leadership at the Fed. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, outlines the relative weakness in oil and oil and gas stocks, the growing vulnerability of the US dollar, and why a pullback in semiconductor stocks may be healthy.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:51) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (06:17) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (11:07) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The View Beyond: Reading between China’s headline indices 09.05.2026 25min

Global equity markets have performed strongly, led by the AI-driven rally across the US, Japan, and Korea, while China’s headline indices have lagged in comparison. Yet beneath the surface, performance has been more nuanced, with parts of the market showing stronger momentum than index-level data suggests.In this episode, Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, speaks with Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management. They discuss why China’s markets have underperformed on the surface, whether traditional benchmarks are capturing the right parts of the economy, and how the AI and semiconductor cycle is shaping market performance. They also explore US-China relations, the outlook for the renminbi, dynamics in the property market, and the impact of oil prices and geopolitics on broader market conditions.(00:28) - China versus global markets and the underperformance question (01:54) - Are investors looking at the wrong indices (05:25) - AI cycle dynamics and China’s role in the semiconductor rally (08:18) - US-China relations and the geopolitical backdrop (13:25) - Renminbi outlook and China’s global positioning (16:30) - Property market rebound or false dawn (20:00) - Impact of oil prices and market implications

Risk‑off mood returns as oil rebounds and uncertainty lingers 08.05.2026 11min

Markets remained on edge as ongoing uncertainty around a potential US–Iran agreement drove a clear risk‑off tone. European equities moved broadly lower, while US indices pulled back after briefly touching record highs, weighed down by weakness in technology and semiconductors. Oil prices proved volatile but ultimately rebounded, with both Brent and WTI holding elevated levels, while gold edged higher. In fixed income, US yields ticked up as investors reassessed inflation risks linked to energy markets. Central banks painted a mixed picture, with Norway surprising to the upside on rates, while Sweden held steady. In Asia, markets were mostly weaker, though South Korea’s strong outperformance continued. Today we were joined by Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, who shared the latest insights on currencies and metals, discussing gold, the ongoing US dollar weakness, and the yen intervention.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (07:01) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva (10:53) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.