The ACID Capitalist Podcast

Compute Is Revenue 29.05.2026 39min

Send us Fan Mail back in march i published a bullish substack essay into a collapsing tape. software stocks were getting butchered. hyperscalers accused of losing their minds. nvidia was falling like a broken momentum trade while missiles were raining down across iran and every idiot on television suddenly became a geopolitical strategist. but price was saying something else. software was no longer scarce. that was the whole point. once code starts writing code the scarcity moves upstream int...

what if the uk is already bankrupt. 08.05.2026 45min

Send us Fan Mail come to the acid capitalist summer camp in st barts 2nd to 6th august. https://hughhendry.com/acid-capital-retreat/ broadcasting from the caribbean as the acid capitalist, i try to make the uk’s sovereign problem legible without the institutional fog. no jargon. no costume. just the one signal that still cuts through the spin: price. i start with a ghost story of imperial infrastructure repurposed into luxury hospitality, then land the argument with brutal ratios that sound ...

the tape is calling bullshit 21.04.2026 32min

Send us Fan Mail the strangest part of the last few weeks is not the headlines about iran, the strait of hormuz, or "financial war". the strangest part is the price. while the front pages sound confident that risk should be melting stocks down, the s&p 500 and nasdaq act like they already know how this ends, and they keep moving higher. i dig into that uncomfortable moment every investor recognises: being right on your story but wrong in your p&l, and what to do when the tape gives th...

double voltage. the trade no one sees. 15.04.2026 21min

Send us Fan Mail it broke. the talks. iran, the us, all of it. the kind of weekend that’s supposed to matter. the market sells off. of course it does. and then it gets quickly bought back. clean. no hesitation. and by the time you’re ready to process it, it’s back at the all time high again. so now you’ve got a problem. because that isn’t noise. it’s instruction. price telling you what it doesn’t care about, and what you should stop caring about too if you want to invest like an adult rather ...

what if your real edge is disobedience. 01.04.2026 39min

Send us Fan Mail a senior rates trader with the closest seat to the federal reserve looks you in the eye and says the quiet part out loud: rates are impossible to predict. that single line detonates the whole religion of macro commentary, expert priesthood, and the endless chase for “signal” in GDP tweaks, inflation prints, and breathless basis point narratives. we follow that thread to a blunt standard for intellectual hygiene: if price did not move materially, the story is mostly theatre.&n...

𝚌𝚘𝚗𝚜𝚎𝚗𝚜𝚞𝚜 𝚑𝚊𝚕𝚕𝚞𝚌𝚒𝚗𝚊𝚝𝚒𝚘𝚗. 27.03.2026 44min

Send us Fan Mail fourteen basis points. that’s the kind of move that gets treated like prophecy on financial television, dressed up with solemn voices and “sticky inflation” metaphors. i'm not buying it. from an apocalypse now rant delivered with a trader’s eye, i lay out a brutal macro investing filter: markets don’t move because someone “figured it out” they move because people act, react, and mis-price risk inside a chaotic system. if you want clarity, you need distance from the noise and ...

fiat isn't a failure. it's a weapon. and bitcoin is the shield. 22.02.2026 1t 54min

Send us Fan Mail 𝚊 𝚑𝚊𝚛𝚍 𝚊𝚜𝚜𝚎𝚝 𝚜𝚕𝚊𝚖𝚖𝚎𝚍 𝚒𝚗𝚝𝚘 𝚊𝚗 𝚎𝚕𝚊𝚜𝚝𝚒𝚌 𝚠𝚘𝚛𝚕𝚍. 𝚠𝚑𝚊𝚝 𝚝𝚑𝚎 𝚑𝚎𝚕𝚕 𝚑𝚊𝚙𝚙𝚎𝚗𝚜 𝚗𝚎𝚡𝚝? 𝚒 𝚍𝚛𝚊𝚐 𝚢𝚘𝚞 𝚏𝚛𝚘𝚖 𝚛𝚊𝚒𝚗-𝚜𝚘𝚊𝚔𝚎𝚍 𝚋𝚛𝚒𝚝𝚒𝚜𝚑 𝚙𝚘𝚞𝚗𝚍 𝚗𝚘𝚝𝚎𝚜 𝚝𝚘 𝚊 𝚏𝚞𝚕𝚕-𝚝𝚑𝚛𝚘𝚝𝚝𝚕𝚎 𝚊𝚞𝚍𝚒𝚝 𝚘𝚏 𝚋𝚒𝚝𝚌𝚘𝚒𝚗'𝚜 𝚒𝚛𝚘𝚗𝚌𝚕𝚊𝚍 𝚜𝚝𝚛𝚞𝚌𝚝𝚞𝚛𝚎, 𝚐𝚘𝚕𝚍'𝚜 𝚝𝚒𝚖𝚎𝚕𝚎𝚜𝚜 𝚋𝚎𝚗𝚌𝚑𝚖𝚊𝚛𝚔, 𝚊𝚗𝚍 𝚝𝚑𝚎 𝚝𝚠𝚒𝚜𝚝𝚎𝚍 𝚎𝚌𝚘𝚗𝚘𝚖𝚒𝚌𝚜 𝚘𝚏 𝚜𝚌𝚊𝚛𝚌𝚒𝚝𝚢 𝚒𝚗 𝚊𝚗 𝚎𝚛𝚊 𝚑𝚞𝚛𝚝𝚕𝚒𝚗𝚐 𝚝𝚘𝚠𝚊𝚛𝚍 𝚊𝚋𝚞𝚗𝚍𝚊𝚗𝚌𝚎. 𝚒 𝚔𝚒𝚌𝚔 𝚘𝚏𝚏 𝚋𝚢 𝚏𝚕𝚒𝚙𝚙𝚒𝚗𝚐 𝚏𝚒𝚊𝚝 𝚘𝚗 𝚒𝚝𝚜 𝚑𝚎𝚊𝚍: 𝚗𝚘𝚝 𝚜𝚘𝚖𝚎 𝚖𝚘𝚛𝚊𝚕 𝚏𝚕𝚘𝚙, 𝚋𝚞𝚝 𝚊 𝚜𝚕𝚒𝚌𝚔 𝚊𝚍𝚊𝚙𝚝𝚒𝚟𝚎 𝚠𝚎𝚊𝚙𝚘𝚗 𝚝𝚑𝚊𝚝 𝚑𝚎𝚕𝚍 𝚜𝚘𝚌𝚒𝚎𝚝𝚒𝚎𝚜 𝚝𝚘𝚐𝚎𝚝𝚑𝚎𝚛 𝚝𝚑𝚛𝚘𝚞𝚐𝚑 𝚠𝚎𝚒𝚖𝚊𝚛'𝚜 𝚌𝚑𝚊𝚘𝚜, 𝟷𝟿𝟸𝟿'𝚜 𝚌𝚛𝚊𝚜𝚑, 𝟸𝟶𝟶𝟾'𝚜 𝚖𝚎𝚕𝚝𝚍𝚘𝚠𝚗, 𝚊𝚗𝚍 𝚝𝚑𝚎 𝚙𝚊𝚗𝚍𝚎𝚖𝚒𝚌'𝚜 𝚏...

10x ʀɪᴄʜᴇʀ ᴏʀ ᴅᴇᴀᴅ ☠️ 21.11.2025 36min

Send us Fan Mail A market story is only as good as the portfolio that can survive it. Hugh Hendry sat down in London to explore risk from first principles. Why playful, curious, even mischievous thinking can beat credentialed certainty, and how to build an allocation that thrives whether AI delivers a productivity super‑cycle or ushers in painful dislocation. The conversation tugs at the great plaster on the body politic : consumer sentiment scraping historic lows while prosperity narratives ...

What If Markets Reward Vision More Than Math? 12.11.2025 1t 15min

Send us Fan Mail A faster lap by going blind sounds reckless until you hear Lando Norris say he drives better with the delta display switched off. That’s the spark for a bigger idea we explore: acid capitalism, where imagination and shared beliefs move markets more than the neatest spreadsheet ever can. We start with the critique that more frequent shows dilute intrigue and use it to sharpen the mission: reduce noise, focus on decision design. From there we test how narrative beats decimals ...

What if AI cuts jobs faster than rates can fall? 08.11.2025 1t 2min

Send us Fan Mail Markets have a habit of choosing the path that hurts the most people, and this week they proved it. We open with a jolt: CarMax plunges 24%, the CEO is shown the door, and used‑car demand looks like a classic pull‑forward that left a hole in today’s sales. From there, we follow the thread across the macro tapestry: consumer sentiment hovering near crisis lows, layoffs announced at a pace that clashes with payroll prints, and a tech slide that turns “AI capex” from dream to do...

Is the Market Running Out of Money? 05.11.2025 1t 21min

Send us Fan Mail What if the cleanest read on market risk isn’t a sentiment index but the dollar itself? We connect the dots from DXY’s slide and rebound to the invisible gears of Eurodollar credit, showing how collateral breathes through trade invoices, repos, and leverage, and how that breath has begun to shorten. From port softness and a reported 17% drop in trucking volumes to tighter haircuts and slower factoring, we map the quiet contraction that can force risk assets to pay a toll in t...

A One-in-a-Thousand Market Moment 03.11.2025 1t 16min

Send us Fan Mail When logic fails, hedges break, and the models panic. Markets rarely behave. In this episode, Hugh Hendry unpacks why. Exploring what happens when models flash red and logic collapses in real time. From George Gammon’s CarMax hedge to the intricacies of dating, calculating sexual market value and the Fed’s confused dance with Treasury policy, Hugh dissects how a “Z-score of 3” moment becomes a one-in-a-thousand event that reshapes portfolios. He links collapsing used-ca...

What If Government Debt Isn’t Debt at All? 31.10.2025 1t 9min

Send us Fan Mail The Ricardian Equivalence, Treasury Debt, and the Modernity of Money Support the show ⬇️ Subscribe on Patreon or Substack for full episodes ⬇️ https://www.patreon.com/HughHendry https://hughhendry.substack.com https://www.instagram.com/hughhendryofficial https://blancbleustbarts.com https://www.instagram.com/blancbleuofficial ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Leave a five star review and comment on Apple Podcasts! 🧢 Hats & Merch 📸 Instagram 🐦 Twitter / X 📩 Substack 👂Listen and 🔥 Su...

Do Deficits Make You Rich? 30.10.2025 1t 31min

Send us Fan Mail Do Deficits Make You Rich? The uncomfortable truth: fiscal stimulus creates wealth, not consumer inflation. Sat pondering in a Caribbean bar, thinking about intelligence, the Fed, deficits, and why inflation lives in Wall Street not in your supermarket basket. When the government runs a deficit, it injects reserves into the system, an automatic overdraft with the banking system. Later it issues Treasuries that drain those reserves. Economists call it a swap. Net financial wea...

When America Pretends to Be Reckless 27.10.2025 54min

Send us Fan Mail In this acid breath of mine, I drift between the sublime and the sardonic. I trace how America, once the debtor, became the empire, how quantitative easing rewired the flow of wealth from the cautious creditor to the restless entrepreneur. China hoarded savings, America dis-saved, and the machine rolled on until an American administration was bold enough to call time. Gold gleams like a reflexive meme, Bitcoin hums like a ghost in the circuitry, but US equit...

Copper, Gold and Trading the Fuzzy Cloud 25.10.2025 53min

Send us Fan Mail I began with CPI, but as usual, I ended up somewhere between Beethoven and gold. The headline CPI 3%, core the same. The whisper was higher. The market calls it “Goldilocks.” Not too hot, not too cold. I call it “Never be a dick for a tick.” That’s how you survive this racket. Everyone obsesses over decimals while the system quietly breaks and remakes itself. The models are wrong, the Fed’s neutral rate misplaced, and shelter data a bad joke. Markets have music. Sometimes off...

The Quantum Crisis: Gold, China, and the Trust Deficit in Markets 23.10.2025 1t 28min

Send us Fan Mail Perhaps the best, most revealing of this daily series. This is macro analysis as cabaret. The Japanese call it, rakugoka (落語家), a man in kimono, I have no kimono, seated on a cushion performing poignant financial monologues. The entire performance relies on market imagination. If in a hurry, skip the first 15 to 30 mins. You can't miss what follows. American housing flickers, Kansas manufacturing hums, and in Asia the monetary plumbing begins to shake. I exp...

Did Gold Just Crash…or Reset? 23.10.2025 50min

Send us Fan Mail ʏᴇꜱᴛᴇʀᴅᴀʏ’ꜱ ᴛʀᴀᴅɪɴɢ ꜰᴇʟᴛ ʟɪᴋᴇ ᴀ ᴍɪʀᴀɢᴇ. ᴛʜᴇ ᴍᴀʀᴋᴇᴛ ʟᴏᴏᴋᴇᴅ ᴄᴀʟᴍ, ʏᴇᴛ ᴜɴᴅᴇʀ ᴛʜᴇ ꜱᴜʀꜰᴀᴄᴇ ᴛʜᴇʀᴇ ᴡᴀꜱ ꜱʜᴀᴋᴇꜱᴘᴇᴀʀᴇᴀɴ ᴅʀᴀᴍᴀ. ꜱᴛᴏᴄᴋꜱ ᴅɪᴇᴅ ɪɴ ᴘʟᴀɪɴ ꜱɪɢʜᴛ ᴡʜɪʟᴇ ᴛʜᴇ ɪɴᴅᴇx ʙᴀʀᴇʟʏ ʙʟɪɴᴋᴇᴅ. ɢᴏʟᴅ ᴛʀᴇᴍᴏʀꜱ ᴄᴏɴᴛɪɴᴜᴇᴅ ꜰᴏʟʟᴏᴡɪɴɢ ɪᴛꜱ ᴛʜʀᴇᴇ ꜱɪɢᴍᴀ ᴅᴀʏ,ᴛʜᴇ ᴋɪɴᴅ ᴏꜰ ᴍᴏᴠᴇ ᴛʜᴀᴛ ᴏɴʟʏ ᴠɪꜱɪᴛꜱ ᴏɴᴄᴇ ᴇᴠᴇʀʏ ꜰᴇᴡ ʏᴇᴀʀꜱ. ᴛʜᴇ ʙᴜꜱʜ ʙᴜʀɴᴇᴅ, ᴛʜᴇ ꜱᴏ-ᴄᴀʟʟᴇᴅ “2-ɪɴ-ᴛʜᴇ-ʙᴜꜱʜ” ꜰᴀɴᴛᴀꜱʏ ɢʀᴏᴡᴛʜ ꜱᴛᴏᴄᴋꜱ ᴡᴇʀᴇ ᴛᴏʀᴄʜᴇᴅ, ᴀɴᴅ ɪ ꜱᴀᴛ ʜᴇʀᴇ ᴡᴏɴᴅᴇʀɪɴɢ, ɪꜱ ᴛʜᴇ ᴍᴀʀᴋᴇᴛ ᴀʟɪᴠᴇ ᴏʀ ᴅᴇᴀᴅ? ɪ ᴋᴇᴘᴛ ᴄᴏᴍɪɴɢ ʙᴀᴄᴋ ᴛᴏ ꜱᴄʜʀᴏᴅɪɴɢᴇʀ’ꜱ ᴄᴀᴛ. ᴛʜᴀᴛ ᴘᴏᴏʀ ʙᴇᴀꜱᴛ ...

The Real Pulse of Money: Gold, Bonds, and the Hidden Trade 22.10.2025 1t 8min

Send us Fan Mail October 21st, no fanfare, just me and my thoughts. I have been on X all day, and only later realized gold had fallen sharply. Some people thought I had timed my comments to take gold down, as if I could move the market. It made me laugh. I start by questioning gold's 50 percent gain this year. If that rise is really fundamental, then there must be better trades no one is touching. That brings me to call options, far out on the horizon, like March 2027. I walk through the logi...

Acid Breath: Why Everything’s Going Up for the Wrong Reason 21.10.2025 1t 5min

Send us Fan Mail Creativity, Chaos, and the Signals That Matter Gold's ripping, stocks are ripping, but this isn't a hedge, it's a hallucination. In today's episode, I break down the paradox of rising fear assets and euphoria trades moving in sync. We bounce off China's Q3 GDP: if the US won't provide data, the Chinese will. And I revisit how creativity really works, not through structure, but through a blissful surrender. Then we take another stab at valuing gold in a...