Markets with Megan: A Quick Financial Markets Update

Episoder

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  29,000 Jobs: Is the Fed Off the Hook? | S3 E171 | 10-02-26 02.10.2026 3min

  The September jobs report came in much weaker than expected, and it could change the Federal Reserve’s next move. The U.S. economy added just 29,000 jobs in September, while the prior two months were revised lower by roughly 60,000 jobs. Unemployment ticked up to 4.2%, labor force participation increased, and wage growth came in around 3% year over year. So what does all of this mean for interest rates? Megan Horneman shares the latest employment data, where jobs are being gained and lost,...
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  Did 3 Reports Just Change Fed Plans? | S3 E170 | 10-01-26 01.10.2026 3min

  The Fed is getting mixed signals. This week’s economic data showed a cooling labor market, stubborn inflation, and renewed price pressures in manufacturing, all while the odds of an October rate hike have fallen sharply. In this episode of Markets with Megan, Megan Horneman breaks down the latest JOLTS report, PCE inflation, ISM manufacturing data, and what they could mean for the Fed’s next move. Could the Fed hold off until December? And what should investors be watching in tomorrow’s Se...
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  AI Spending Is Booming. Will the Fed Raise Rates? 25.09.2026 2min

  AI-related capital spending continues to support the U.S. economy, and the latest durable goods report reveals surprising strength beneath the headline numbers. But could stronger economic growth give the Federal Reserve another reason to raise interest rates? In today's Markets with Megan, Verdence Capital Advisors CIO Megan Horneman reviews August's durable goods orders, the surge in business investment, and what the latest economic data could mean for third-quarter GDP, inflation and the ...
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  Retail Sales Rebound | S3 E168 | 09-16-26 16.09.2026 2min

  Retail sales just flipped the script: after a weak July, August comes in with a sharp rebound, and the details matter if you care about where the U.S. economy is headed. We walk through the August retail sales report and why a 1.2% monthly gain grabs market attention, especially with gasoline station sales up 3.1% and “core” spending measures also showing strength. If you’ve been wondering whether the consumer is finally cracking, this data argues the spending story is not over yet. We...
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  Fed Hike Odds Jump After CPI | S3 E167 | 09-11-26 11.09.2026 5min

  Inflation came in hotter than expected, and the latest CPI report may have strengthened the case for a Fed rate hike next week. In this episode of Markets with Megan, Megan Horneman dissects the latest inflation data, including rising energy costs, hotter core CPI, and continued pressure on American households. She also explains why markets are rallying even as the odds of a Fed hike rise, and what investors should be watching heading into next week’s Fed meeting. Topics include: • The late...
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  PPI Report Builds Case For Rate Hike | S3 E166 | 09-10-26 10.09.2026 3min

  Inflation came in as expected. The problem? “As expected” is still too hot. The latest Producer Price Index showed inflation pressures continuing to build: 📈 Headline PPI: +5.4% year over year 📈 PPI excluding food, energy and trade: +4.7% ✈️ Airline prices: nearly +20% year over year ⚖️ Legal services: about +8% 🏥 Hospital inpatient care: +4.3% Those details matter because several feed into the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation gauge, and they’re not giving policymakers much reason to feel comf...
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  162,000 Jobs Added: What It Means for the Fed | S3 E165 | 09-04-26 04.09.2026 3min

  The August jobs report landed well above expectations, and it's the last one the Fed will see before its September meeting. The U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs last month against a forecast of just 55,000, with construction, AI-related hiring, and government payrolls all contributing. Megan Horneman breaks down what a beat this size means for interest rate policy. Wages grew three-tenths of a percent for the month, unemployment held at 4.1%, and the labor force added more than half a million...
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  Service Sector Warning: Prices Are Back | S3 E164 | 09-03-26 03.09.2026 2min

  The ISM Services Index ticked up in August, and the report's prices paid component jumped to its highest level since August 2022, back when the economy was still digging out of the post-pandemic inflation spike. Megan breaks down what's behind the rise in service sector activity and why the pricing data is worth watching heading into the Fed's next move. In this episode, Megan covers: 🔹 Why the ISM Services Index rose in August and what's driving the strength 🔹 The prices paid component's j...
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  The Fed's New Focus: Prices Over Jobs | S3 E163 | 08-28-26 28.08.2026 5min

  Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh delivered a notably hawkish speech at this year's Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, and it has real implications for where interest rates go next. Hear what he said about inflation, the labor market, and why the Fed isn't backing off even after a few better-than-expected readings this summer. Inflation has stayed above the Fed's 2% target for more than five years, and Warsh made clear that "better than expected" doesn't mean "good enough." With more than half of...
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  This Inflation Report Puts Pressure on the Fed | S3 E162 | 08-26-26 26.08.2026 4min

  The July PCE inflation report came in hotter than expected, with the Fed's preferred inflation gauge rising 0.2% month over month against a forecast of just 0.1%. Core PCE now sits at 3.3% year over year, unchanged from the prior month but still well above the Fed's 2% target. Megan breaks down what the data actually shows beneath the headlines. This matters because the Fed chairman speaks at Jackson Hole this week, and markets are watching closely for any hint of tone on where rates go next...
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  Why Are We Watching the Fed | S3 E161 | 08-19-26 19.08.2026 4min

  The Federal Reserve released the minutes from its July meeting, and Megan breaks down what they actually reveal about the committee's thinking heading into September. The minutes show risks to employment and growth skewed to the downside, while inflation risk is still seen as tilted to the upside, even with a general upbeat tone on the economy overall. A few committee members already favored raising rates rather than waiting, a reminder of what happened in 2022 when the Fed had to move aggre...
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  Retail Sales Miss, Confidence Drops Too | S3 E160 | 08-14-26 14.08.2026 4min

  Today's data on the consumer wasn't good. July retail sales fell 0.3%, missing expectations for a 0.2% gain, following a decline the month before. Megan Horneman breaks down what's behind the pullback and why the control group number, which feeds directly into GDP, matters even more than the headline. In this episode: - Why July retail sales fell 0.3% instead of rising as expected - What the control group reading tells us about GDP - Why restaurant spending rose 0.5% even as other categorie...
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  Markets Rally on CPI, Megan Isn't Sold | S3 E159 | 08-12-26 12.08.2026 3min

  July's Consumer Price Index is in, and markets are cheering. Headline CPI rose 0.1% for the month and 3.5% year-over-year, while core CPI came in at 0.2% monthly and 2.5% annually. Both numbers landed right where economists expected, and both ticked slightly lower than June. But as Megan explains, "as expected" isn't the same as "good news." In this episode, Megan covers: - Why July's in-line CPI report still isn't something to fully celebrate - How service sector inflation reversed course ...
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  Does Small Business Data Hint at a Fed Shift? | S3 E158 | 08-11-26 11.08.2026 2min

  The July NFIB Small Business Optimism Index just came in better than expected and it's now at its highest level since August 2025. Understand why this report matters, especially since small businesses make up nearly half of the private sector labor force. Underneath the headline number, the details tell an interesting story. Job openings, hiring plans, and capital expenditure intentions all jumped, painting a different picture than what showed up in last week's jobs report. With the CPI repo...
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  Wages Grow 3.2%. But Is That Enough? | S3 E157 | 08-07-26 07.08.2026 4min

  The July jobs report landed with a surprise this morning, and it wasn't the good kind. Economists expected the U.S. economy to add 80,000 jobs. Instead, it lost 23,000, and the prior two months were revised lower. Megan breaks down what happened underneath that headline number and what it means for the Fed's next move. Here's the part that confuses a lot of people: the unemployment rate actually fell to 4.1%, its lowest level in about a year, even as jobs disappeared. That's not necessarily g...
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  Supply Chains Behave While Prices Misbehave | S3 E156 | 08-05-26 05.08.2026 3min

  The July ISM Services report is in, and it's giving the Fed a mixed signal ahead of its September rate decision. Megan Horneman breaks down why the headline number came in slightly below expectations, what eased supply chain pressures actually tell us, and why the prices paid component just jumped back above 70 for the fourth time in five months. At the same time, the employment component fell back into contraction territory, something it's now done in 12 of the past 18 months. That combinat...
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  The 9.2% Number Hiding Inside Retail Sales | S3 E155 | 07-17-26 17.07.2026 4min

  June retail sales came in close to expectations, with headline growth slowing to 0.2% as gasoline station sales pulled the number down. But strip out food, energy and building materials, and the control group grew 0.5% on the month and is running at a 9.2% annualized pace over the past three months. Megan breaks down what that split actually tells us about the consumer. In this episode, Megan covers: 📊 Why headline retail sales growth slowed to 0.2% in June ⛽ How falling gasoline station sal...
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  Biggest PPI Drop Since 2023 | S3 E154 | 07-15-26 15.07.2026 3min

  The Producer Price Index for June came in much better than expected, with the headline number falling 0.3% instead of holding flat, the biggest monthly decline since October 2023. So what drove the drop? How does it compare to yesterday's CPI report? Why does the softer core reading still leave the Fed with a decision to make? This matters right now because the Fed is weighing whether to hold steady or move again in September, and this report cuts both ways. Energy prices did a lot of the wo...
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  CPI Surprise: Inflation Drops 0.4% | S3 E153 | 07-14-26 14.07.2026 4min

  This week's June CPI report brought a surprise most analysts did not expect. Headline inflation fell 0.4% on a month over month basis, driven almost entirely by a sharp drop in energy and commodity prices. On a year over year basis, headline inflation is still running at 3.5%, but that's down meaningfully from 4.2% a year ago. The timing matters. The Fed's new chairman is testifying before Congress this week, and his prepared remarks stayed hawkish on inflation even as this report showed real...
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  5 Questions Driving Markets This Summer | S3 E152 | 06-22-26 22.06.2026 3min

  With markets hitting record highs and a tentative U.S.-Iran ceasefire in place, investors are sitting with a lot of open questions heading into the second half of 2026. In this episode, Megan Horneman works through the five questions she's hearing most from investors right now, from energy prices to Fed policy to what Q2 earnings season might reveal. - What the U.S.-Iran interim ceasefire means for investors, and three key details still unresolved - Why gas prices haven't kept pace with the...