Poly Marks

Episoder

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  #31. HODL Me Closer, Tiny Senator 11.06.2026 45min

  Send us Fan Mail In Episode 31, the crew bounces between markets, politics, economics, and geopolitics, with a recurring theme: when should you hold a position versus panic-selling too early? The episode opens with discussion around the eye-popping valuation of SpaceX and whether retail investors are already too late to the party. That leads into a broader conversation about market bubbles, recession risks, and whether current optimism is masking deeper economic vulnerabilities. The hos...
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  #30. Buying the Dip(lomacy) 28.05.2026 43min

  Send us Fan Mail Episode 30 of the Poly Marks Podcast dives headfirst back into the Strait of Hormuz crisis, as the boys break down the latest rumors of a U.S.–Iran memorandum of understanding, whether the ceasefire is actually real, and why prediction markets still seem convinced that global shipping is about to normalize. Andrew explains why nearly half his portfolio is riding on Strait traffic not returning by the end of June, while the crew debates whether the market is dramatically under...
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  #29. He Said, Xi Said. 14.05.2026 56min

  Send us Fan Mail Episode 29 opens with crew breaking down Trump’s meeting with Xi Jinping, debating whether he’ll avoid sensitive topics like Iran and Taiwan while trying to land a trade and geopolitical win from a position they argue is weaker than expected. They analyze Polymarket phrase bets, the Strait of Hormuz crisis, China’s growing leverage, and how global energy flows are quietly reshaping the balance of power. From there, the conversation spirals through unresolved Iran tensio...
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  #28. The Snake, The Strait, and The Bubble 08.05.2026 52min

  Send us Fan Mail Episode 28 starts with a break down of Elon’s lawsuit against OpenAI and debate whether Sam Altman’s transformation from nonprofit steward to potential multi-billionaire CEO could become one of the biggest tech scandals in AI history. They discuss the odds of Elon winning, OpenAI’s IPO chances collapsing, Anthropic’s growing momentum, and whether the AI sector is quietly entering bubble territory. From there, the conversation pivots back to the Middle East: stalled peac...
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  #27. Frozen War, Hot Markets 23.04.2026 52min

  Send us Fan Mail Ep. 27 lands in a quieter—but no less uncertain—moment. With the Iran ceasefire dragging on, the guys question whether anything is actually improving, or if this is just a stalled negotiation dressed up as progress. The key debate centers on a simple market: will the U.S. and Iran meet diplomatically by April 30? Despite odds near 50/50, the group leans firmly no—arguing neither side has incentive to concede, and recent failed signals (like the Strait reopening attempt) only ...
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  #26. Blockade Squared 16.04.2026 59min

  Send us Fan Mail Ep. 26 opens with a rare mix of victory laps and bruised portfolios. Andrew nails the “US troops entering Iran” market after a dramatic pilot rescue mission inside Iranian territory, while the rest of the board is licking wounds from the surprise ceasefire announcement that nuked their long-held no-ceasefire positions. The ceasefire is technically holding—for now—but with immediate violations, a US blockade around Hormuz, and zero trust between parties, the guys debate whethe...
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  #25. Tankers, Tolls, and Trump's Timelines 02.04.2026 57min

  Send us Fan Mail This week on the Poly Marks Podcast, the boys break down Trump’s latest address on Iran and what it signals for the trajectory of the conflict. They explore the growing crisis in the Strait of Hormuz—where Iran is effectively taxing global shipping—and debate whether this represents a temporary disruption or a permanent shift in global power. From ceasefire timelines to boots-on-the-ground probabilities, the episode dives deep into prediction markets, highlighting where the o...
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  #24. Oil Up, Odds Down, Offramps Out 21.03.2026 46min

  Send us Fan Mail Ep. 24 is another full-blown Iran board, with the guys zeroing in on the biggest market-moving development so far: the Strait of Hormuz is still effectively shut, the Gulf is jammed with stranded ships, and the economic fallout is starting to look worse by the day. Andrew runs point on the situation, walking through Iran’s strikes on Qatari LNG infrastructure, the oil spike, trapped vessels, and the ugly reality that even if America wants the strait reopened, mines and fear c...
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  #23. Mine Games in the Strait 13.03.2026 48min

  Send us Fan Mail Ep. 23 is basically a full Iran panic board. The boys open on the Strait of Hormuz becoming the real story of the war: mines in the water, tankers refusing to run the gauntlet, insurance chaos, oil ripping past $100, and the dawning realization that even if America and Israel own the skies, reopening a mined shipping lane is a totally different problem. Andrew lays out the broader picture: Iranian missiles flying at every American-aligned target in the region, Gulf states get...
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  #22. Ayatollah, Assahola-in-the-ground 05.03.2026 1t

  Send us Fan Mail Ep. 22 is an all-Iran victory-lap episode—Joel openly admits nobody’s here for “pure alpha,” but the boys still take a bow because the big catalyst finally hit: U.S. + Israel strikes began late Feb 27 / early Feb 28, and the crew frames it as the moment their Khamenei-out positioning finally paid. They unpack the how-did-they-find-him lore (traffic/morality cameras, possible implants, Mossad “everywhere” narratives) and debate whether those leaks are real penetration vs. deli...
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  #21. Iran So Far Away 20.02.2026 46min

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  #20. Maple Market Maxxing 12.02.2026 50min

  Send us Fan Mail Episode 20 goes full Canada-maxxing. The boys open on the Liberal Majority by June 30 market. Andrew’s riding the NO, arguing Carney already shot his floor-crosser shot and the only real path left is a snap election. Joel agrees on no majority but doubts Carney risks calling an early vote while comfortably governing with NDP/Green support. The hedge debate kicks in: if you think majority odds hinge on an election, do you double down with a “Yes, election called” position—or j...
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  #19. Keir Today, Gone Tomorrow 09.02.2026 44min

  Send us Fan Mail Ep. 19 opens with Epstein spillover markets and Andrew’s spicy angle: betting Keir Starmer resigns (Feb 28 / Jun 30) after Labour’s U.S. ambassador pick Mandelson gets dragged into the newest Epstein-file drop and Starmer looks visibly rattled defending it in Parliament. The boys riff on how everyone lies about Epstein proximity, why the coverup might be the real career-killer, and whether the genie is finally out—public pressure, grandstanding, and “big scalp” fantasies incl...
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  #18. Strait Outta Hormuz 30.01.2026 48min

  Send us Fan Mail In Episode 18, the boys bounce from Middle East war markets to Midwest chaos. Andrew recaps the U.S. military buildup around Iran (tankers, Growlers, F-35s, “nuclear sniffer” vibes) and why the market is pricing a strike as soon-ish, even if Khamenei-out odds aren’t moving much. The crew pivots to an “alpha” angle: instead of betting regime change, they like the cleaner edge on “Khamenei leaves Iran” (cheap odds, multiple plausible endgames). Then it’s Gaza / Board of Peace c...
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  #17. Davos We Go Again 23.01.2026 43min

  Send us Fan Mail In Episode 17, Andrew hosts Matt and Joel for a whip-around of the week’s biggest prediction-market storylines. The guys debate Iran’s trajectory and whether the current “holding pattern” is just the calm before a wider escalation, with talk of carriers, air assets, and the “nothing ever happens” thesis making a comeback. They shift to Greenland and argue what “acquiring part of Greenland” really means—sovereignty vs. a Guantanamo-style jurisdiction deal—plus how any Denmark/...
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  #16. Marks Make Markets Move More Money 16.01.2026 47min

  Send us Fan Mail This week on The Poly Marks Podcast, the boys break down one of the wildest market weeks yet — as Iran strike odds explode, collapse, and reward traders on both sides. Matt and Andrew walk through how they both made money betting opposite outcomes, why timing matters more than conviction, and how crowd momentum can create short-lived but massive pricing errors. The conversation then moves to domestic politics, including Tim Walz–related markets, fraud allegations, and whether...
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  #15. Marked Down Dictators 08.01.2026 56min

  Send us Fan Mail This week on The Poly Marks Podcast, the boys take a victory lap as the Maduro-out market resolves, breaking down what happened, what didn’t resolve, and why market wording matters as much as outcomes. From Venezuela’s future and succession questions to rising tension around Iran, Cuba, and even Greenland, the conversation shifts from celebration to positioning. The crew debates timelines, risk management, and why stretching bets often beats chasing fast resolution. The episo...
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  #14. Kinetic Strike Out 02.01.2026 47min

  Send us Fan Mail This week on The Poly Marks Podcast, Joel hosts Matt and Andrew for a fast-moving recap of the week’s biggest markets: a reported kinetic strike in Venezuela that turns into a rules-and-resolution fight, the Supreme Court tariff case and what the justices’ questions might signal, plus rising tension around Iran and the growing sense that a wider conflict is being priced in. The boys finish north of the border with Canada recession odds, Carney/Parliament math, and what it all...
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  #13. Marking the Future 16.12.2025 47min

  Send us Fan Mail Welcome back to the Poly Marks Podcast — your weekly reminder that betting on the future is easier than predicting it. This week we hit three big themes: A wild media-merger market (HBO/Warner + Netflix vs Paramount vs NO DEAL) and why “IP” might be the real prize in the AI eraCanada vs the U.S. recession odds (and whether the numbers can be “juiced”)Early 2028 election positioning: who might announce a presidential run before 2027, and why a “sprinkle” can still be a good tr...
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  #12. The PolyMarket Meta War: Whales, UMA, and Angry Degens 08.12.2025 43min

  Send us Fan Mail In Episode 12 of the Poly Marks Podcast, the brothers get meta. Joel, Matt, and Andrew start with updates on their Venezuela and alien bets. From there, they pivot into Epstein file bets, what counts as “substantive information,” whether financial crimes count, and why almost-unanimous Congressional pressure makes Joel bullish that something will be released—even if it’s disappointingly redacted. We then dive deep into the weird mechanics of resolving PolyMarket markets...