RenMac

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  RenMac Off-Script: The First Crack 24.07.2026 45Min.

  RenMac breaks down the case for a Fed hike next week — Neil Dutta's "Why Not Now?" call, with September already priced at 100% — as AI capex, rising oil, and tariffs push inflation the wrong way and Warsh weighs moving in his honeymoon. The team also discusses the momentum crash and why the bounce is better sold than endorsed, real yields zapping gold and duration, $100 oil as the Iran conflict shuts the Red Sea, tariff maneuvering after Section 122's expiry, rotation into banks and healthcare, and the week ahead in the July 29 FOMC and core PCE.
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  RenMac Off-Script: Memorandum of Misunderstanding 17.07.2026 40Min.

  RenMac breaks down the vicious unwind in the momentum trade, why a low headline VIX is masking the highest single-stock dispersion the team has ever measured, and how a cooler CPI print does little to stop the Fed conversation from tilting toward a September hike, with inflation, not growth, now owning the reaction function. The team also discusses rising Strait of Hormuz tensions and elevated oil, a looming 25% Brazil tariff, Korea's AI-driven rate hike, yen intervention risk, and the Washington theater around Fed leadership and congressional stock-trading rules.
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  RenMac Off-Script: Redistributing the Oxygen* 10.07.2026 57Min.

  Big Technology podcast host Alex Kantrowitz joins the RenMac Off-Script team to discuss whether the AI buildout has quietly become the load-bearing pillar of the U.S. economy and what breaks if it stalls. The team breaks down why the compute crunch is separating clear winners from losers, why the semiconductor tape is flashing classic top-of-cycle signals, and why the productivity boom needed to justify the capex simply isn't showing up in the data. They also explore how real rates rather than inflation are tightening financial conditions, why the Warsh Fed is tilting hawkish toward a possible hike, and how a populist revolt against data centers and the escalating China race are reshaping the policy backdrop.
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  RenMac Off-Script: State of the Fed Disunion 02.07.2026 38Min.

  RenMac is joined by banking and payments veteran Howard Mason and digs into a soft payroll report, Chair Warsh's price-stability regime shift, and firming real rates. The team questions how the Fed actually delivers on price stability while hawks fill the vacuum, and turns to a market cycle clock stuck in its worst zone, thinning semiconductor leadership, embers of private credit stress, the yen carry trade and the oil-and-gas round trip.
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  RenMac Off-Script: Flying Blind 26.06.2026 37Min.

  RenMac breaks down a hawkish shift from the Fed and why higher real yields are reshaping market leadership beneath the surface. The team discusses Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's economic agenda, the rotation away from the Mag 7, mounting stress in private credit, the outlook for Iran and oil prices, and why improving market breadth is encouraging—but not yet an all-clear signal
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  RenMac Off-Script: Warsh Lets the Hawks Fly 19.06.2026 36Min.

  RenMac breaks down new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first meeting — the most hawkish FOMC outcome on record by the move in the two-year yield — why falling oil won't pull the Fed off its tightening bias, and how rate hikes are now on the table as soon as July. The team also discusses the fragile Iran settlement, a firmer dollar, the Defense Production Act's reach into non-defense names, US-versus-ex-US equity leadership, and the week ahead in core PCE, Micron, and Fed speakers.
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  RenMac Off-Script: Rocket Man 12.06.2026 49Min.

  RenMac breaks down the SpaceX IPO frenzy, why history suggests caution around the most anticipated market debuts, and how stronger inflation and labor data are shifting the Fed conversation toward a more hawkish stance. The team also discusses private credit liquidity concerns, rising real rates, the Iran outlook, and whether market leadership is finally broadening beyond a handful of crowded trades
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  RenMac Off-Script: Small Ball 05.06.2026 32Min.

  RenMac small cap strategist Kevin Dempter joins Off-Script to discuss what's driving small cap outperformance since Liberation Day and whether the run has room to go. The team digs into the technical setup in regionals and biotech as potential breakout catalysts, the SpaceX IPO mechanics and where retail may get trapped, and how to distinguish a durable market super cycle from a dangerous earnings bubble given historically narrow leadership. They also tackle a stronger-than-expected payrolls print that reshuffled the Fed outlook, Neil Dutta's skepticism on AI-driven productivity gains, the FHFA/DNI reshuffle and what it means for Fannie and Freddie, and whether the Trump-China relationship has turned a corner on trade and Iran.
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  RenMac Off-Script: Shoot ‘em in the Back 29.05.2026 40Min.

  RenMac discusses the equity markets at all-time highs as signs of late-cycle stress accumulate beneath the surface and capital chases the parabola in tech. The team breaks down the historic tech-vs-healthcare disparity in their SERM excess-return model, the tops forming in payments, financials, and crypto, and the Bermuda Triangle of private credit, life insurance, and reinsurance that could become the next pressure point. They also explore Iran's fragile 60-day ceasefire, a global rate-hike cycle that may be doing the Fed's work and the wealth-effect grip on consumer spending.
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  RenMac Off-Script: Seeking Crypto Clarity 22.05.2026 50Min.

  Zach Pandl, Head of Research at digital asset manager Grayscale Investments, joins the RenMac Off-Script team to discuss the Clarity Act's path through Congress and how stablecoins are challenging banks' monopoly on digital payments. The team also digs into the AI boom's underappreciated reach across the U.S. economy, the breakout in real yields, narrowing market breadth, the Fed's increasingly narrow policy path, and geopolitical pressure points from the Strait of Hormuz to Cuba.
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  RenMac Off-Script: Around the World with Ozan 15.05.2026 50Min.

  RenMac welcomes Deutsche Bank Vice Chair of Global Macro Ozan Tarman for a deep dive on rising yields, “warflation,” and whether the bond vigilantes are back. The team debates whether the move above 4.50% in the 10-year marks a regime shift, why AI is still carrying equities despite mounting macro stress, and how Iran, Taiwan, and Trump’s China trip are reshaping global markets. They also unpack Kevin Warsh’s difficult Fed setup, crowded positioning across rates and FX, private credit risks, and why housing and consumer may be flashing warning signs beneath the surface.We also welcome you to download our report: RenMac BDC Primer
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  RenMac Off-Script: Fine… For Now 08.05.2026 34Min.

  RenMac breaks down a labor market that remains stable but uneven, with AI and data center investment continuing to drive hiring, manufacturing, and market leadership while housing, services, and consumer-sensitive sectors soften beneath the surface. The team discusses why slowing wage growth and rising gasoline prices leave the Fed stuck on hold, how semis and tech are entering historic “bubble” territory, and why private credit stress, Iran tensions, and China negotiations could become the next catalysts for volatility.
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  RenMac Off-Script: RenMac’s Breadth Problem 01.05.2026 40Min.

  RenMac breaks down a powerful market rally masking weak breadth and narrow leadership concentrated in AI, semis, and energy. The team explores a soft underlying growth backdrop, slowing wage gains alongside rising prices, and why the Fed remains on hold despite mounting tension within the committee. They also discuss higher oil expectations, pressure on consumers, risks from concentrated momentum and “bubble” conditions in tech, and how markets are navigating a disconnect between strong earnings and fragile macro fundamentals.
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  RenMac Off-Script: Burden Is On The Bears 24.04.2026 41Min.

  RenMac unpacks rising risks in the $2.1T private credit market, where opacity, refinancing pressure, and potential redemption “gates” could tighten financial conditions beneath the surface. The team discusses a speculative turn in equities driven by high beta and momentum, a Fed on hold despite slowing wage growth, and a labor market that remains stable but fragile. They also explore why inflation still matters more than growth for markets, how fiscal support may fade into a headwind, and what credit stress, positioning, and geopolitics signal for a late-cycle environment.
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  RenMac Off-Script: Can't Spell Allbirds w/o AI 17.04.2026 42Min.

  RenMac unpacks a market at new highs despite slowing growth, softening real consumption, and rising real rates acting as a drag beneath the surface. The team debates AI-driven speculative behavior, a fragile consumer distorted by nominal spending and gas prices, housing that likely needs job losses to reset, and why markets are dismissing oil, policy, and Fed risks that haven’t hit earnings yet.We also welcome you to access “deGraaf: Fading the Fads” report: https://start.renmac.com/4-17-2026-fading-the-fads
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  RenMac Off-Script: Clarida Gives RenMac Clarity 10.04.2026 1Std. 2Min.

  Former Fed Vice Chair Rich Clarida joins the RenMac Off-Script team to discuss the evolving Fed reaction function amid a potential transition to a Warsh-led regime and why markets are struggling to price policy. The team breaks down how Middle East developments and energy prices complicate rate cuts, why underlying inflation may be softer than headline data suggests, and how AI-driven productivity could create conflicting pressures on growth, inflation, and rates. They also explore rising fragility in equities, the role of real rates as the key market driver, and why the current rally lacks the breadth and conviction needed for a durable move higher.Here is the link to Richard Clarida's Spotify : https://open.spotify.com/album/51lgCHoPn3Os1PiCirwidr
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  RenMac Off-Script: Good Friday & Dark Crosses 03.04.2026 38Min.

  RenMac breaks down a noisy March payrolls report that’s sending the wrong signal to the Fed, why markets may be misreading a slowing nominal economy, and how rising real rates—not inflation fears—are driving the recent repricing in risk assets. The team explores the growing disconnect between resilient equities and weakening growth, the role of the Iran-driven oil shock in pushing inflation expectations higher, and why markets keep pushing out the timeline for resolution in the Strait of Hormuz. They also discuss why sentiment hasn’t fully cracked yet, what could trigger a sharper earnings reset in Q2, and why the real opportunity may come after positioning turns more bearish.
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  RenMac Off-Script: Strait Talk* 27.03.2026 49Min.

  Former U.S. National Security official Michael Allen joins the RenMac Off-Script team to discuss escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and why reestablishing control is critical to global energy markets and U.S. strategic credibility. The team breaks down how geopolitical decisions are increasingly driving market outcomes, why oil shocks constrain the Fed’s ability to ease, and how inflation dynamics are taking precedence over growth. They also explore cracks forming in credit and private markets, resilience in U.S. assets versus global stress, and how positioning, sentiment, and gamma dynamics could amplify volatility as markets navigate a fragile late-cycle environment.
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  RenMac Off-Script: Fear Factor(s) 20.03.2026 41Min.

  RenMac breaks down how quadruple witching and gamma dynamics could amplify near-term volatility as markets reprice a fragile macro environment. The team unpacks an oil-driven supply shock colliding with sticky inflation and softening growth, why central banks don’t look through energy shocks, and the cracks forming in credit and leveraged financials.
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  RenMac Off-Script: Escort No Shows & Stripper Wells* 12.03.2026 1Std. 4Min.

  Commodity Context founder Rory Johnston joins the RenMac Off-Script team to discuss escalating attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and why a prolonged disruption could remove up to 20% of global oil supply and push oil to $200. The team breaks down why markets may be underpricing the duration of the conflict, how refinery shortages in Asia could ripple through global energy markets, and why Russia may ultimately benefit from the crisis. They also discuss the limits of SPR releases and U.S. shale responses, cracks forming beneath the surface in equities, why gold and defensive sectors aren’t behaving like a typical risk-off environment, and how geopolitics could collide with Fed policy, inflation data, and consumer spending in the weeks ahead.