Moving Markets

Επεισόδια

• 
  Equities up, bond prices up, Fed hike expectations down 16.10.2026 11λ

  European markets closed in positive territory on Thursday as investors rotated out of AI and tech stocks into defensive sectors such as healthcare and materials, as well as buying up government bonds. The same story played out in the US where the Dow Jones was the star performer. Overnight comments from Fed Chair Warsh led to traders reducing their bets on an October hike from 25% to 15%. Warsh also made some encouraging comments about artificial intelligence which doubtless assisted the Asian equity market recovery this morning. As ever on a Friday, Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, joins the podcast to deliver his thoughts on currencies and metals this week. Tune in to find out what he thinks about gold, the Aussie dollar, the Brazilian real, and even the Mexican peso.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (06:16) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX & Precious Metals Sales Geneva (10:52) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
• 
  Hot US inflation, AI under pressure and iron ore's price divide 15.10.2026 12λ

  Markets were driven by three themes yesterday: hotter US inflation, rising expectations of Fed rate hikes, and a growing AI sell-off. These forces weighed on equities, even as market breadth in the S&P 500 remained broadly balanced, and triggered sharp swings in bonds and currencies. Europe held up well, but risk sentiment remains fragile heading into today, with technology stocks in Asia also under pressure. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, discusses iron ore, including why the same iron ore trades at sharply different prices in different locations around the world.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (07:18) - Iron ore: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research (11:56) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
• 
  Fed hopes, AI fears, and banks that fail to impress 14.10.2026 15λ

  Fed comments eased fears of prolonged policy tightening, helping equities recover from an uncertain start. Beneath the surface, however, AI-related stocks remained under pressure amid fresh concerns over China's technological ambitions, while US bank earnings failed to impress. Meanwhile, surging gas prices and renewed attacks in the Middle East reignited concerns ahead of today's US inflation report. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, discusses the implications for corporate bonds, while Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, examines the outlook for both US and European banks.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (05:54) - Bond Market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research (10:31) - US Financials update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research (14:20) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
• 
  Geopolitics drive markets while AI faces new challenges 13.10.2026 13λ

  Geopolitical developments remained firmly in focus on Monday, lifting oil prices and supporting energy stocks, while technology shares came under pressure. At the same time, investors digested hawkish central bank rhetoric and prepared for the start of a closely watched earnings season. In today’s show, Enrico Chinello from Next Generation Research discusses OpenAI’s revenue rate, intensifying competition within the AI industry, and the growing opposition to data centre expansion.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:32) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (07:34) - AI price wars: Enrico Chinello, Next Generation Research (12:35) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
• 
  SpaceX shocks telecoms, oil defies geopolitics, and earnings season begins 12.10.2026 11λ

  Markets rebounded on Friday as OpenAI's revenue outlook and Trump's ‘energy ceasefire’ with Russia eased supply concerns, weighing on oil despite geopolitical risks. SpaceX's move into mobile telecom sent US carriers sharply lower. Attention now turns to major US bank earnings, inflation data, and semiconductor results. In today’s show Markus Wachter from our Technical Analysis team explains why the US technology sector remains the only game in town, what levels the euro needs to defend, and what lies ahead for precious metals.(00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (01:19) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (07:27) - Technical Analysis update: Markus Wachter, Technical Analysis (10:25) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
• 
  The View Beyond: AI: Money for nothing? 10.10.2026 21λ

  Hyperscaler investment in AI infrastructure has reached unprecedented levels, with capital expenditure figures now dwarfing even those of the global oil and gas industry. As spending surges and supply tightness persists, investors are wondering how sustainable this boom is, and which segments of the AI value chain stand to benefit most?In this episode, Ayako Lehmann, Head of Webcasts & Video at Julius Baer, is joined by Enrico Chinello, research analyst in the Next Generation Research team, to examine the drivers behind hyperscaler spending, the impact on the AI value chain, and the outlook for key beneficiaries such as semiconductor manufacturers and equipment providers. The discussion covers the sustainability of current investment levels, the implications for free cash flow and financing habits among leading AI companies, and the risks and opportunities as the AI cycle continues to accelerate.(00:00) - Introduction (00:57) - Defining hyperscalers and their role (01:57) - The scale and acceleration of hyperscaler capital expenditure (03:52) - Risks of AI training losing steam and visibility on spending (04:19) - Market reactions to AI risk warnings and supply chain constraints (05:49) - Drivers of price inflation in memory and compute units (07:23) - FOMO and hyperscaler behaviour in capacity booking (08:01) - Who bears the cost of rising AI infrastructure spending? (08:32) - Duration of supply tightness and outlook for normalization (09:17) - Pricing power across semiconductors, memory, servers (11:07) - Who will benefit most in the AI value chain? (11:23) - Beyond semiconductors (13:04) - The sustainability of the AI spending boom and changing financing habits (14:33) - Free cash flow compression and outlook for returns (16:27) - Risks and what to monitor (18:10) - Pacing the frontier - what will be the impact? (20:31) - Closing remarks (21:22) - Legal information  Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
• 
  Markets shake off OpenAI fears and bond bulls return to the table 09.10.2026 14λ

  Markets stumbled after a newspaper report suggested that OpenAI's annualised revenues could fall well short of previous expectations. Overnight, however, sentiment improved as doubts emerged over the accuracy of the report. Meanwhile, a stronger-than-expected 30-year US Treasury auction helped drive yields lower, providing additional support for equities alongside easing oil prices. In today's episode, we are joined by Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, who shares his views on the US dollar, gold, and the emerging market currencies he believes offer the most compelling opportunities.(00:00) - Introduction: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (00:51) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (08:30) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX & Precious Metals Sales Geneva (13:27) - Closing remarks: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
• 
  Bond markets, the oil puzzle and electric vehicles 08.10.2026 13λ

  Markets are being driven by developments in bond markets on both sides of the Atlantic. In Europe, concerns over French public finances weigh on sentiment, while in the US, inflation worries and a well-received Treasury auction triggered sharp moves in yields. Other topics include the challenges facing European carmakers in China, the resilience of US equities, and SpaceX looking to tap the bond market. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, discusses the apparent disconnect between the recovery in Middle Eastern oil exports and persistently high oil prices, as well as the positive momentum in the electric vehicle market.(00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (00:48) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (07:08) - Energy markets/oil update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research (12:10) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
• 
  S&P 500 at record high as earnings loom and French risks persist 07.10.2026 14λ

  The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs in a broad-based rally, while lower bond yields and oil prices supported European equities. Overnight, renewed Middle East tensions pushed oil prices higher and weighed on Asian markets. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, notes that French fiscal risks are justified, but markets already reflect a fairly pessimistic outlook. The key question is whether the situation in France spills over to other eurozone countries. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, highlights the high hurdle for next week's US earnings season. Key areas to watch include bank earnings, hyperscaler capital expenditure, and signs of AI-driven productivity gains extending beyond the technology sector.(00:00) - Introduction: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (06:20) - Fixed income update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research (09:41) - Q3 earnings season preview: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research (13:37) - Closing remarks: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
• 
  Markets rally, France stumbles and the obesity revolution accelerates 06.10.2026 13λ

  Equity markets started the week on a strong note, with both European and US stock indices posting solid gains. France proved the notable exception, however, as French equities and government bonds came under pressure amid growing concerns about the government’s ability to rein in the budget deficit ahead of the 2027 elections. In today’s episode, we are joined by Dr Damien Ng from our Next Generation Research team, who shares his latest insights into the remarkable scientific advances and shifting landscape in the fight against obesity, one of the most significant healthcare themes of our time.(00:00) - Introduction: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (00:32) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (07:17) - Obesity drugs – Future Health: Damien Ng, Next Generation Research (12:22) - Closing remarks: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
• 
  Weak payrolls lift stocks, but yields stay elevated 05.10.2026 12λ

  Equity markets rallied on Friday after a surprisingly weak US jobs report fuelled hopes that the Federal Reserve may remain on hold for longer. However, enthusiasm was tempered by another rise in Treasury yields, with the US 10-year yield hovering near multi-decade highs. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain elevated, keeping investors focused on energy markets despite a coordinated release of emergency fuel reserves by G7 countries. In today's show, Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, shares his views on European equities, the euro, and what the current market environment means for investors.(00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (01:36) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (08:35) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (11:51) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
• 
  The View Beyond: Higher yields, risk or opportunity? 03.10.2026 17λ

  With the US 10-year treasury yield recently crossing the 5% threshold and the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance, bond investors are facing heightened volatility and a rapidly shifting landscape. Are higher yields a warning sign of greater risk, or do they present new opportunities for portfolio construction?In this episode, Rishabh Saksena, Co-Head of Global Asset Class Specialists at Julius Baer, is joined by Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research. Together, they dissect the drivers behind the recent surge in yields, the implications of monetary policy repricing, and the nuanced impact of a more hawkish Fed across the yield curve. The conversation covers duration preferences, the outlook for inflation and credit, the appeal of US investment-grade bonds, and the effects of increased bond issuance from sectors such as hyperscalers.This episode was recorded on September 28, 2026.(00:00) - Introduction (01:22) - What’s driving the move in yields? (02:42) - Investor concerns and opportunities in fixed income (03:45) - Why a hawkish Fed can support parts of the bond market (05:26) - Outlook for the Fed and interest rates into 2027 (06:23) - Duration preferences and the case for intermediate maturities (08:35) - Appetite for longer-dated bonds and portfolio construction trends (10:07) - Implications of a sustained 5%+ US treasury yield (11:48) - Inflation risks and expectations for 2027 (13:00) - Is corporate credit still attractive at current valuations? (14:24) - Impact of increased bond issuance from hyperscalers (15:48) - Key takeaways for fixed income investors (16:53) - Closing remarks (17:34) - Legal information Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
• 
  Yields surge, oil rallies, and all eyes turn to payrolls 02.10.2026 12λ

  Markets endured a turbulent start to the fourth quarter as a global bond sell-off pushed US Treasury yields to their highest level since 2002 and intensified concerns over French public finances. European equities came under pressure, while US stocks recovered late in the session. Oil prices surged on supply concerns and geopolitical tensions, adding to inflation worries ahead of today's closely watched US payrolls report. In today's show, Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, discusses the outlook for the US dollar, the euro and precious metals.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (07:03) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX & Precious Metals Sales Geneva (11:32) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
• 
  Sticky inflation meets resilient markets 01.10.2026 12λ

  European inflation surprised to the upside, driven by energy prices, while softer US inflation data offered some reassurance for markets. However, the bond market stress continued with Treasury yields rising, weighing on equities in their final stretch of the quarter. Asian markets opened Q4 positively, led by technology shares after Micron's strong revenue outlook. Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, shares his insights about Asia and what he expects from the region in the final innings of the year.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (05:24) - Asia update: Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong (11:33) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
• 
  Fed's Williams tempers October hike fears 30.09.2026 10λ

  Whilst the 30-year US Treasury bond yield rose for a sixth consecutive session, traders were calmed somewhat by comments from New York Federal Reserve President John Williams yesterday. Markets are now pricing in a 49% chance of a Fed rate hike in October, down from 71% on Monday. This didn't help US indices though: they all declined on the day. Asia saw stocks recover and there was encouraging factory activity data out of China. Today sees the release of the Fed's preferred measure of inflation - the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. Our Head of Fixed Income Research, Dario Messi, joined the podcast to explain what is driving higher yields, where he believes investors can find the best value now, and why he believes that a quality bias in credit portfolios is still warranted.(00:00) - Introduction: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (06:20) - Fixed income update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income (10:06) - Closing remarks: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
• 
  Yields up, AI accelerates, cities adapt 29.09.2026 11λ

  Rising oil prices and higher bond yields are keeping inflation concerns front and centre, pushing US Treasury yields to their highest level since 2007. The AI investment boom remains in focus, highlighted by NVIDIA's record buyback announcement and Anthropic's S-1 filing, a precursor to an eventual IPO. Policymakers continue to balance inflation and growth concerns, with Australia tightening policy further and China signalling fresh support for its slowing economy. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation, talks about the need of large cities to adapt to climate change, creating a very appealing structural growth outlook for the infrastructure and buildings value chains.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (06:00) - Adapting to a warmer world: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research (10:48) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content £Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
• 
  Oil rallies, bonds struggle and equities hold their ground 28.09.2026 11λ

  Global bond yields moved higher once again as oil prices rallied following President Trump’s rejection of Iran’s ceasefire proposal. Meanwhile, Chinese equities fell to their lowest level in a year amid fresh US restrictions on technology exports. In Europe, the financial sector remains firmly in focus as market speculation grows around a potential tie-up between UBS and another major bank. In today’s episode, we are joined by Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, who shares his latest views on market leadership, the strongest-performing sectors, and the outlook for precious metals.(00:00) - Introduction: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (01:10) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (07:11) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (10:32) - Closing remarks: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
• 
  The View Beyond: Can Trump-Xi talks shift market sentiment? 26.09.2026 27λ

  US-China relations are back in the spotlight, with investors watching whether talks between Presidents Trump and Xi can deliver meaningful progress and shift market sentiment. The discussions come as Chinese markets contend with trade uncertainty, tentative policy support and a challenging domestic growth backdrop.In this episode, Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, speaks with Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management, about the Trump-Xi talks, the outlook for Chinese equities and property, and sentiment towards Chinese AI stocks. They also discuss the longer-term AI investment story and the impact of rising oil prices and interest rates on global markets.(00:00) - Trump-Xi talks: Can they deliver for markets? (01:55) - US, Europe and China: A changing trade landscape (06:40) - What could drive a year-end rebound in Chinese equities? (11:17) - Property support: Technical rebound or real recovery? (16:00) - China AI stocks: Sentiment versus fundamentals (22:38) - Oil, rates and the global market outlook
• 
  Dollar strength, gold’s next move and painfully high yields 25.09.2026 11λ

  Rising government bond yields remain at the centre of investors' attention as expectations for further rate hikes in the US and Europe continue to build. Combined with a renewed rally in oil prices, higher yields are weighing on risk appetite and limiting the upside for equity markets. In today's episode, Tim Gagie, Head of FX & Precious Metals Advisory in Geneva, joins us to share his views on the US dollar, precious metals, and the key market themes investors should be watching.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:21) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (06:35) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX & Precious Metals Sales Geneva (10:57) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
• 
  US Treasury yields surge the most since last year’s tariff turmoil and what's next for gold? 24.09.2026 12λ

  US Treasury yields surge the most since last year's tariff turmoil and what's next for gold? Bond yields surged globally as stronger-than-expected economic data reinforced higher-for-longer rate expectations. US Treasury yields recorded their biggest jump since last year's tariff-related market turmoil, while Japan's 10-year yield rose above 3% for the first time since 1996. Brent oil moved back above USD 100 per barrel. The safe-haven USD was well bid, while European and US equities moved lower. Asian markets were mixed today, with Japan rising after a three-day holiday. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, discusses precious metals - from Fed policy to China's gold buying, he talks about what is likely to drive the gold and silver markets, and what is just noise.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (07:04) - Gold and silver: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research (11:47) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.