Economic Indicators with Fexingo: GDP, CPI, PMI, and Reading the Macro Data

Επεισόδια

• How Job Openings Surged to 7.6 Million in April 2026 03.06.2026 7λ

  Lucas and Luna break down the surprise jump in job openings to 7.6 million in April 2026, the highest in nearly two years. They explore why this number jumped despite a flat unemployment rate and what it means for the Fed's interest rate path. The conversation connects JOLTS data to wage growth and inflation, using the latest CPI and average hourly earnings figures. Lucas argues that the job market is tighter than layoff headlines suggest, while Luna highlights the energy-cost distortion from the Iran conflict. This episode turns one data point into a clear read on the labor market's resilience heading into mid-2026. #JOLTS #JobOpenings #LaborMarket #FedPolicy #Inflation #CPI #WageGrowth #IranWar #EnergyCosts #Economics #MacroData #EconomicIndicators #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna #April2026 #RateOutlook #LaborPuzzle Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
• How JOLTS Surprise Reshapes the Fed Rate Outlook 02.06.2026 6λ

  Job openings surged to 7.6 million in April 2026, the highest in nearly two years, complicating the Federal Reserve's path forward. Lucas and Luna dig into the JOLTS data, unpacking why a hot labor market doesn't necessarily mean rate hikes ahead. They connect the dots to the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — core PCE at 3.3% — and explore how geopolitical shocks like the Iran war are distorting the numbers. With the yield curve still inverted and capacity utilization ticking up, the hosts ask whether the economy is sending mixed signals or just rebalancing. A must-listen for anyone trying to read the macro tea leaves mid-2026. #JOLTS #JobOpenings #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #CorePCE #Inflation #LaborMarket #EconomicIndicators #MacroData #YieldCurve #CapacityUtilization #IranWar #GeopoliticalRisk #Business #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
• What Producer Prices Signal About Fed Policy Better Than CPI 02.06.2026 8λ

  In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down why producer prices—specifically the producer price index—may be a more accurate leading indicator of Fed policy than the consumer price index. Using fresh data from June 2026, they explain how rising input costs at the factory level are filtering through to core inflation, even as CPI shows a slight cooldown. Lucas traces the transmission mechanism from PPI to CPI, highlighting recent energy inflation distortions from the Iran war, while Luna questions whether the Fed's focus on core PCE misses the pipeline pressure. A must-listen for investors and business leaders trying to read the macro tea leaves. #ProducerPrices #PPI #CPI #FedPolicy #Inflation #CoreInflation #EnergyInflation #IranWar #MonetaryPolicy #EconomicIndicators #MacroData #FOMC #SupplyChain #InputCosts #BusinessCycle #FexingoBusiness #EconomicsPodcast #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
• How Producer Prices Signal Fed Policy Better Than CPI 01.06.2026 6λ

  In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna explore why producer price index (PPI) data may offer a timelier signal of inflationary pressure than the consumer-focused CPI. With core PCE running at 3.3% annually and energy inflation stubbornly persistent due to the Iran conflict, the hosts examine how input costs for manufacturers—such as energy, raw materials, and logistics—are feeding into wholesale prices before reaching consumers. They reference April's PPI report showing a 0.5% month-over-month increase in final demand goods, and discuss how this pipeline pressure complicates the Fed's rate decision. Drawing on comments from Fed officials Kashkari and Goolsbee, the episode argues that PPI's predictive power is often overlooked in favor of lagging consumer price data. Tune in for a fresh take on inflation indicators and what they mean for your portfolio. #ProducerPriceIndex #PPI #Inflation #FederalReserve #CorePCE #EnergyInflation #IranWar #Manufacturing #SupplyChain #WholesalePrices #EconomicIndicators #MonetaryPolicy #Kashkari #Goolsbee #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #MacroData Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
• Why Real vs Nominal GDP Divergence Matters Now 01.06.2026 8λ

  In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the growing gap between nominal and real GDP growth. As of Q1 2026, nominal GDP hit $31.82 trillion while real GDP (chained 2017 dollars) reached $24.15 trillion. That $7.67 trillion spread reflects nearly four years of cumulative inflation. The hosts explain why nominal GDP captures total spending power in the economy—including inflation—while real GDP strips out price changes to show actual output. They explore how this divergence affects everything from tax revenue to corporate earnings to household purchasing power. With the Fed still fighting above-target core PCE inflation at 3.3% annually and the 10-year breakeven inflation rate at 2.38%, understanding which GDP measure to watch is critical for investors and policymakers. Lucas traces how nominal GDP growth outpaced real GDP growth through the post-pandemic recovery, and why the gap matters for your portfolio. Luna asks the smart questions about whether nominal GDP should get more attention in a high-inflation era. No jargon, no fluff—just a clear, data-driven conversation. #NominalGDP #RealGDP #GDP #Inflation #CorePCE #CPI #FederalReserve #MacroData #EconomicIndicators #BreakevenInflation #Investing #PortfolioStrategy #USEconomy #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna #MacroEconomics Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
• Why Nominal GDP Growth Matters for Your Portfolio 31.05.2026 6λ

  In this episode, Lucas and Luna explore the gap between nominal and real GDP growth, using the latest data (Q1 2026 nominal GDP at $31.82 trillion, real at $24.15 trillion) to explain why inflation-adjusted figures can paint a deceptive picture. They discuss how nominal growth signals corporate revenue potential, while real growth reveals actual economic expansion. With core PCE inflation stuck at 3.3% and energy costs elevated due to the Iran war, the hosts break down what investors should watch: nominal GDP as a proxy for top-line earnings growth, and real GDP for productivity trends. They also touch on capacity utilisation at 76.1% as a leading indicator. The episode includes a brief, organic listener-support mention. #NominalGDP #RealGDP #Inflation #CorePCE #CapacityUtilisation #GDPGrowth #FedPolicy #IranWar #EnergyInflation #PortfolioStrategy #Economics #MacroData #EarningsGrowth #Investing #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicIndicators #May2026 Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
• How the Iran War Is Distorting Inflation Data 31.05.2026 8λ

  On this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down how the ongoing Iran war is creating a distortion in core inflation readings. With the Fed's preferred PCE gauge showing core inflation at 3.3% annually, but energy prices adding $450 to the average household's annual costs, they examine whether stripping out energy prices still makes sense when the shock is prolonged. They also look at capacity utilisation hitting 76.1% — a level that historically signals pricing power — and ask whether the Fed is looking at the right numbers. A focused conversation on measurement, war, and the limits of core inflation in 2026. #IranWar #InflationData #CoreCPI #PCE #FederalReserve #EnergyPrices #CapacityUtilisation #EconomicIndicators #GDP #CPI #PMI #Economics #MacroData #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Podcast #LucasAndLuna #InflationMeasurement Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
• How the Jobs-Openings Puzzle Complicates the Fed Rate Outlook 30.05.2026 7λ

  This episode digs into the JOLTS data released on May 30, 2026, which shows job openings falling to 6.866 million, the lowest since early 2021. Lucas and Luna explore what this decline means for the Fed's rate path—especially with core inflation still running at 3.3 percent and the unemployment rate holding at 4.3 percent. They focus on the puzzle of falling openings without a spike in layoffs, the Beveridge curve shift, and why the Fed may need to see either higher unemployment or a sharper drop in openings to feel confident about cutting rates. The conversation also touches on how the Iran war's energy costs add a layer of uncertainty to the inflation outlook, and whether the labor market is signaling a soft landing or a slow-motion recession. #JOLTS #JobOpenings #BeveridgeCurve #FedRateOutlook #LaborMarket #Inflation #CoreInflation #Unemployment #EconomicIndicators #MonetaryPolicy #SoftLanding #EnergyInflation #IranWar #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna #FedWatch Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
• Wage Growth Isnt Keeping Pace with Core Inflation 30.05.2026 9λ

  Lucas and Luna dive into the April 2026 inflation and wage data, showing that while average hourly earnings rose to $37.40, core CPI climbed to 335.4 and core PCE hit a 3.3% annual rate. They explain why real wage growth has turned negative for most workers, how the Iran war energy shock is compounding the squeeze, and what this means for consumer spending and Fed policy. A data-driven look at the gap between headline wage numbers and actual purchasing power. #WageGrowth #CoreInflation #RealWages #AverageHourlyEarnings #CoreCPI #CorePCE #FederalReserve #IranWar #EnergyInflation #ConsumerSpending #LaborMarket #PurchasingPower #Inflation2026 #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicIndicators #WageSqueeze Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
• How Energy Inflation Is Distorting the Core CPI Picture 29.05.2026 5λ

  In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down why energy inflation is skewing the way we read core CPI and the Fed's preferred PCE gauge. With the Iran war pushing household energy costs up by nearly $450 annually, the hosts examine how stripping out food and energy might be masking persistent price pressures in other sectors. They explore the gap between core CPI (3.3% annual rate in April) and the headline number, discuss whether the Fed's focus on core measures is still valid during a geopolitical energy shock, and look at what the breakeven inflation rate of 2.39% signals about market expectations. Packed with specific data from the latest releases, this episode offers a practical guide to interpreting inflation reports when energy prices are anything but normal. #CoreCPI #EnergyInflation #IranWar #FederalReserve #PCEPriceIndex #InflationData #BreakevenInflation #ConsumerPrices #GeopoliticalShocks #FedPolicy #Kashkari #Goolsbee #EconomicIndicators #CPI #MacroData #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
• How Inventory Cycles Are Reshaping GDP in 2026 29.05.2026 8λ

  Business inventories have surged to $2.7 trillion, adding a volatile twist to GDP growth. Lucas and Luna break down how inventory accumulation boosted first-quarter growth to 1.6 percent annualized, why the build-up may reverse in coming quarters, and what the 76.1 percent capacity utilisation rate tells us about whether companies are producing ahead of demand or sitting on unsold goods. Drawing on the latest data through April 2026, they explain why inventory cycles are one of the most misunderstood components of GDP and how investors should read the signal without getting whipsawed. A practical look at the real economy behind the headlines. #GDP #InventoryCycle #CapacityUtilisation #BusinessInventories #SupplyChain #EconomicIndicators #MacroData #FederalReserve #IndustrialProduction #RealGDP #InventoryBuild #WholesaleInventories #RetailInventories #EconomicGrowth #2026Economy #BusinessCycle #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
• What Durable Goods Orders Tell Us About the Economy 28.05.2026 8λ

  Lucas and Luna dive into the durable goods orders report, which dropped a surprise 6.2% in April. But they explain why the headline number is misleading—transportation orders can swing wildly. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investment, actually rose 0.4%. They connect this to the Fed's dilemma: sticky services inflation versus cooling goods demand. With real GDP growth at 1.6% and capacity utilisation creeping up, is the economy sending mixed signals? They also touch on how business inventories are piling up, which could weigh on future production. This episode helps you see past the volatility in monthly data to the underlying trend. #DurableGoods #BusinessInvestment #CoreCapitalGoods #GDPGrowth #Inflation #FederalReserve #EconomicData #Manufacturing #Inventories #CapacityUtilisation #Economics #Podcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna #May2026 #DataAnalysis #MacroEconomics Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
• Core PCE vs CPI Which Inflation Number Matters More 28.05.2026 8λ

  Lucas and Luna break down the difference between the Consumer Price Index and the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index — and why the Fed prioritises Core PCE. With CPI at 332.4 and Core PCE at 129.3, they explain how each index is constructed, why they diverge, and what that means for the rate path ahead. Plus: a quick look at how breakeven inflation expectations have edged down to 2.39%, even as headline CPI remains sticky. If you've ever wondered why the Fed ignores the number you see in the news, this is your episode. #CPI #CorePCE #Inflation #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #MacroData #EconomicIndicators #BreakevenInflation #ConsumerPrices #PCEPriceIndex #CoreInflation #SubstitutionBias #FedPolicy #RealEconomy #EconomicsPodcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
• How Capacity Utilisation Leads GDP in Predicting the Cycle 27.05.2026 7λ

  Lucas and Luna explore why capacity utilisation, currently at 76.1 percent, may be a more reliable leading indicator of economic turning points than GDP itself. They discuss the latest industrial production data, the gap between current utilisation and the long-run average, and what this means for inflation and Fed policy in mid-2026. Drawing on historical patterns, including the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic, they explain why factories running at 76 percent capacity leave little room for error—and why GDP revisions make it a lagging indicator. A practical guide for anyone trying to read the macro tea leaves without getting fooled by noisy quarterly data. #CapacityUtilisation #IndustrialProduction #GDP #LeadingIndicators #FederalReserve #Inflation #EconomicCycle #Manufacturing #MacroData #BusinessCycle #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicIndicators #PCE #CPI #JOLTS #LaborMarket Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
• Capacity Utilisation Tells a Different Story Than GDP 27.05.2026 8λ

  In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into capacity utilisation — the often-overlooked metric that reveals whether the economy is running hot or has room to grow. With the latest data showing capacity utilisation at 76.1 percent in April 2026, up from 75.67 in March, Lucas explains why this matters more than the headline GDP number. They explore how capacity constraints are flashing warning signs in sectors like semiconductors and specialty chemicals, even as overall industrial production ticks up. The hosts connect this to the bond market's recent moves — the ten-year yield falling to 4.49 percent — and what it means for Fed policy. Along the way, they touch on the small-cap rally, with the Russell 2000 up over 6 percent in the last five days, as a signal that investors are betting on domestic manufacturing. If you've been confused by mixed economic signals, this episode shows you which number to watch. #CapacityUtilisation #IndustrialProduction #GDP #FederalReserve #BondMarket #Manufacturing #SmallCaps #Russell2000 #TreasuryYields #Semiconductors #USEconomy #Inflation #EconomicIndicators #MacroData #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #Podcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
• Capacity Utilisation Is the Signal to Watch in 2026 26.05.2026 6λ

  Lucas and Luna break down why capacity utilisation — currently at 76.1 percent — is a more reliable forward-looking indicator than GDP or unemployment for gauging inflationary pressure and the next Fed move. Using data from May 2026, they explain how factories running at 76 percent capacity leave room for output without spiking prices, and why a reading above 80 percent has historically preceded rate hikes. The hosts contrast the tame industrial utilisation with a tight labour market and stubborn core CPI of 335.4, arguing that the real story in the macro data is not the headline numbers but the slack or lack thereof. They also touch on the yield curve's recent flattening and what it means for recession odds. A focused, data-driven conversation for listeners who want to read economic indicators like a professional. #CapacityUtilisation #IndustrialProduction #FederalReserve #Inflation #CoreCPI #GDP #YieldCurve #LabourMarket #JOLTS #NonfarmPayrolls #EconomicIndicators #MacroData #LucasAndLuna #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #PodcastEpisode #May2026 Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
• How Inventory Builds Are Reshaping GDP Growth in 2026 26.05.2026 9λ

  Lucas and Luna dig into a quietly powerful economic indicator: inventory investment. With real GDP growth at 2.0 percent and business inventories rising to $2.71 trillion, they explore how warehouse shelves are contributing to output—and whether the current build is a sign of confidence or a prelude to a correction. They reference the latest Q1 2026 data, the industrial production index at 102.5, and capacity utilization at 76.1 percent. Along the way, they discuss how inventory cycles amplify GDP swings and why the ratio of inventories to sales matters more than the absolute number. A focused look at a macro data point that often gets overlooked. #GDP #InventoryInvestment #BusinessInventories #EconomicIndicators #MacroData #RealGDP #IndustrialProduction #CapacityUtilization #SupplyChain #InventoryCycle #GDPComponents #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicPolicy #DataAnalysis #InventoryToSales #Macroeconomics Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
• What the Yield Curve Is Saying About Recession Risk in 2026 25.05.2026 6λ

  The yield curve has been inverted for over two years — historically a screaming recession signal. But with the S&P 500 near 7,500 and unemployment at 4.3 percent, Lucas and Luna dig into why this time may actually be different. They break down the 10-year minus 2-year spread, the role of term premium, and what the curve's recent flattening tells us about Fed policy and the Iran-war inflation backdrop. Plus: why a 'soft landing' could break the old rules, and what investors should watch next. #YieldCurve #RecessionSignal #FedPolicy #Inversion #TermPremium #BondMarket #TenYearTreasury #TwoYearTreasury #SoftLanding #HardLanding #IranWar #Inflation #MacroData #FixedIncome #EconomicIndicators #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
• Industrial Production Is Quietly Outperforming the Services Slowdown 25.05.2026 7λ

  While services inflation and consumer sentiment dominate the headlines, industrial production has posted a solid gain in April. Lucas and Luna unpack the latest data: capacity utilisation ticked above 76 percent for the first time in months, and the industrial production index hit 102.5, up from 101.81. They explore what this divergence means for the Fed's next move, whether manufacturing is decoupling from the broader economy, and why investors should watch factory output as a leading indicator. With the ten-year breakeven inflation rate steady at 2.40 percent and the Fed in a holding pattern, this episode argues that the real story in May 2026 might not be consumer pain but quiet industrial strength. A focused, numbers-driven conversation for anyone trying to read the macro tea leaves without the noise. #IndustrialProduction #CapacityUtilisation #FederalReserve #Inflation #Manufacturing #RealEconomy #EconomicData #MacroEconomics #LucasAndLuna #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #IndustrialIndex #FactoryOutput #LeadingIndicators #ServicesSlowdown #RateHikes #EconomicDivergence #TreasuryYields Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
• Why Real GDP Growth Matters More Than Headline Numbers 24.05.2026 7λ

  Lucas and Luna dig into the latest GDP data, breaking down why real GDP growth matters more than the headline nominal figure. With nominal GDP at $31.86 trillion but real growth at just 2% annualized, they explore what this means for wages, productivity, and the Fed's next move. They also examine the divergence between the stock market's rally and the consumer sentiment record low, using the S&P 500's 1% weekly gain and small-cap outperformance to question whether the 'soft landing' narrative holds. Specific examples include the 4.3% unemployment rate and the 10-year breakeven inflation at 2.40%. A practical episode for anyone wanting to read economic data like a pro. #GDP #RealGDP #NominalGDP #EconomicIndicators #FedPolicy #Inflation #StockMarket #S&P500 #SmallCaps #ConsumerSentiment #SoftLanding #WageGrowth #Productivity #MacroData #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo