At the Water's Edge

Επεισόδια

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  Former Acting Chairman of the Joint Chiefs: “The Colossus Is Awake” 30.07.2026 1ώ 2λ

  America Can't Build Weapons Fast Enough | The Pentagon's Former Acting Chairman Explains Why Admiral Chris Grady (Ret.) spent over 40 years in the Navy, commanded at every level from ship to fleet, and served as Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff — including a stretch as Acting Chairman during one of the most chaotic weeks in recent Pentagon history. Now retired and serving as a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Business Executives for National Security (BENS), he joins the show to break down why America's defense industrial base can't keep pace with modern conflict, and what it would actually take to fix it. We cover his own framework for how the character of war is changing: the shift from platform-centric to system-centric thinking, why "attritable mass" is rewriting the cost-exchange math of modern combat, why the electromagnetic spectrum is now a contested warfighting domain in its own right, and why the industrial base itself has become a tool of deterrence. Along the way: the 155mm shell shortage, the cost-exchange problem of cheap drones against expensive interceptors, why the U.S. still hasn't fielded a real answer to 1991's Blue Force Tracker, and the workforce gap behind it all, including why a welder can out-earn a lot of college grads. Read Adm. Grady's article, "The Future of War," on The BENS Lens: https://thebenslens.substack.com/p/the-future-of-war Learn more about BENS: [bens.org] Subscribe to my Substack: https://substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg
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  You Can’t Bomb Iran Into Surrender | Robert Pape 29.07.2026 1ώ 9λ

  This is the latest episode in The Escalation Trap, an ongoing series with Robert Pape of the University of Chicago tracking the war with Iran in real time. Pape recorded this episode without power of his own — tornadoes had just knocked out electricity across the south side of Chicago — and turns his own blackout into a working case study for what it would actually mean for the U.S. to take down Iran's electric grid. We walk through the difference between hitting a grid's transformers and hitting its generator halls, why one is fixed in days and the other takes months, and what a real months-long blackout does to a city of ten million people: food spoilage, water pressure collapse, hospitals losing dialysis and surgical capacity, and no air conditioning in near-100-degree heat. Pape explains why that level of damage — what he calls "medium" civilian punishment — tends to produce revenge rather than surrender, drawing on his historical research into World War II bombing campaigns and Pearl Harbor, and where the ceiling actually sits before a population is too devastated to seek payback. From there we turn to the drone hunt: the scale problem behind suppressing Iran's Shaheed arsenal, why the search area is one and a half times the size of California, and why Pape doesn't believe the Strait of Hormuz reopens before the midterms. We close on the political clock both Washington and Tehran are racing against, and why Pape thinks Iran's actual target has never been our bases in the Gulf — it's the presidency itself. Robert Pape publishes ongoing frameworks and updates on this war at The Escalation Trap: https://escalationtrap.substack.com/ Scott's Substack: https://substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg
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  This Should Be Illegal. It's Not 23.07.2026 46λ

  Cities and towns across America are signing non-disclosure agreements with corporations — and in some cases, officials aren't even allowed to tell the public an NDA exists. Investigative journalist Miranda Spivack joins the show to explain how local government secrecy became a national security issue. Miranda spent twenty years at The Washington Post covering state and local government. Her new book, Backroom Deals in Our Backyards: How Government Secrecy Harms Our Communities and the Local Heroes Fighting Back (The New Press), documents how "accidental activists" across the country have fought back against poisoned water, toxic firefighter gear, and opaque data center deals. We cover why data centers are driving a wave of secret NDAs between corporations and local officials, the Hoosick Falls, NY water contamination case, what happened when Amazon went hunting for its second headquarters, why the collapse of local news makes all of this harder to catch, and how local government secrecy connects to national power and America's data infrastructure race. Guest: Miranda S. Spivack — veteran journalist, former Washington Post editor/reporter, Fulbright Scholar, and author of Backroom Deals in Our Backyards (The New Press, 2025). Book: available from The New Press with discount code BACKROOM30, or at your local bookstore and bookshop.org Substack: backroomdeals.substack.com X: @mirandareporter
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  The War Is Spiraling | Robert Pape on Iran and the Escalation Trap 21.07.2026 23λ

  The war with Iran has entered what Robert Pape, Professor at the University of Chicago, calls the "spiral phase" — a dynamic that's both vertical, with harsher strikes on both sides, and horizontal, with the Red Sea now pulled into the conflict via a Houthi blockade. This week brings the death of three more U.S. service members, bringing the total to 17, a bombing campaign now targeting Iranian civilian infrastructure at scale, a reinstated naval blockade, and strikes on multiple Kuwaiti desalination plants — cutting off water that millions of people depend on, with no backup supply. We cover why Pape believes he's been modeling this exact war for twenty years, and why he traces its real starting point to the bombing of the Fordow enrichment facility in June 2025, not the more commonly cited February 2026 date. We discuss new intelligence around a facility Pape refers to as "Pickaxe Mountain" and concerns about uranium enrichment moving toward weapons-grade levels, why Pape argues that neither Trump nor Iran actually controls the outcome of this war — commercial shipping companies do — and the parallel Pape draws between Trump's political calculus now and Lyndon Johnson's decision-making during Vietnam. Pape publishes ongoing analysis of the conflict in his Substack, The Escalation Trap: https://escalationtrap.substack.com/ For more analysis on this conflict, subscribe to the At the Water's Edge Substack: https://substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg This is a weekly recurring conversation tracking the Iran war in real time. New episodes drop every week.
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  "Iran's Supreme Leader Just Called for Attacks on Americans Worldwide" | Robert Pape 13.07.2026 31λ

  The war with Iran is back on, and according to Robert Pape, Professor at the University of Chicago, we are now knocking on the door of the most dangerous stage of the conflict yet. This week, Pape walks through why Iran's Supreme Leader has issued a call for revenge attacks on Americans anywhere in the world, why that statement closely parallels the fatwa issued against Salman Rushdie three decades ago, and why he believes the U.S. and Iran are both boxed into an escalation neither side can easily walk back from. We cover why Pape believes punishment campaigns and the recently failed MOU have left Trump with few remaining off-ramps, why Pape expects the coming wave of violence to be driven by inspired rather than centrally directed attackers, and the historical parallel Pape draws between Trump's current position and Imperial Japan's decision to attack Pearl Harbor. We also discuss why Pape believes a nuclear strike remains unlikely in the near term, and why he has been warning for months that this war could extend well into 2027. Pape publishes ongoing analysis of the conflict in his Substack, The Escalation Trap: https://escalationtrap.substack.com/ This is a weekly recurring conversation tracking the Iran war in real time. New episodes drop every week.
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  Joe Kent: 'Israel Drove This Decision, Not Us' 09.07.2026 1ώ 8λ

  Joe Kent spent 21 years in Army Special Forces and the CIA before becoming President Trump's Director of the National Counterterrorism Center — then walked away from it, resigning in protest over the war with Iran. This week I sit down with him to talk about what he saw from inside the administration in the weeks before he quit, why he believes Israel drove the decision to strike, and what it actually looks like to try to "coach up" a president who's stopped listening. We get into the collapse of the MOU, whether the US has any leverage left in the Strait of Hormuz, and why he thinks the all-volunteer force has quietly severed the military from the country it defends. We also cover ground most of his interviews haven't: whether some form of compulsory service is the only real check left on endless wars, and whether 2028 opens the door to a genuine third party built around opposition to foreign intervention. Joe Kent: 21 years in Special Operations (75th Ranger Regiment, 5th Special Forces Group), CIA paramilitary officer, and former Director of the National Counterterrorism Center. Follow him at x.com/joekent16jan19. At the Water's Edge is a weekly conversation with practitioners and analysts on national security and geopolitics, hosted by a former Green Beret. New episodes every week
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  Iran's Funeral Just Changed the War | Robert Pape's Warning to Washington 06.07.2026 35λ

  Just days after President Trump's Fourth of July weekend, Iran held a massive funeral for its slain leadership — and millions turned out. In this week's installment of our ongoing series on the war with Iran, Robert Pape, Professor at the University of Chicago and one of the leading scholars on coercion, airpower, and political violence, argues that the funeral marks a turning point that has nothing to do with capability and everything to do with will. Pape lays out his case that four and a half months of decapitation strikes, blockade, and bombing have not broken Iranian public resolve — and why that matters for the ongoing negotiations set for July 11th. We cover Kuwait and Bahrain's complaint to the UN Security Council, why Iran is reportedly turning down financial offers from Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, the risk of Washington falling into an "echo chamber" on Iran policy, and why Pape believes pressure could build toward further escalation as soon as August. Pape publishes ongoing analysis of the conflict in his Substack, The Escalation Trap: https://escalationtrap.substack.com/ This is a weekly recurring conversation tracking the Iran war in real time. New episodes drop every week.
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  Iran Is Not Deterred | Robert Pape on the Escalation Trap 29.06.2026 30λ

  This is the latest episode in The Escalation Trap, an ongoing series with Robert Pape of the University of Chicago tracking the war involving the United States, Israel, and Iran in real time. After new strikes in the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. bombing inside Iran, Iranian missile attacks on U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, and renewed talk of a ceasefire, Pape argues that the conflict is not ending. Instead, we are in the middle game of the escalation trap. That means periods of violence followed by pauses — not a durable ceasefire. Pape explains why Iran has not been deterred by assassination, bombing, blockade pressure, or threats. Instead, Iran may be entering a period of maximum coercive leverage as oil inventories draw down and pressure grows on the global economy. We also discuss Iran’s nuclear trajectory, the risks facing U.S. forces in the Gulf, the role of Lebanon and the Red Sea, Israel’s future security position, and why the timing of Iran’s nuclear decision may depend less on politics and more on feasibility. Why Pape says Iran is not deterred Why this is military action and pause — not a real ceasefire How the war remains in the middle game of the escalation trap Why Iran may continue kinetic pressure in the Strait of Hormuz How oil inventories shape Iran’s coercive leverage Why Lebanon, Hezbollah, and the Red Sea matter to Iran’s regional strategy What this means for U.S. forces in the Gulf How Iran’s nuclear calculus may be changing Whether Iran would sprint to a nuclear weapon or wait Why nuclear timing may come down to feasibility, not politics The war did not end. The ceasefire is not holding in any meaningful strategic sense. And Iran may be using this phase of the conflict to increase leverage, pressure U.S. forces, and move closer to the kind of regional power position Pape has warned about throughout this series. Escalation Trap Substack: https://escalationtrap.substack.com At the Water’s Edge delivers practitioner-level insight into national security and geopolitics — bridging academic theory with how conflicts actually unfold in the real world. In this episode:Key takeaway:Follow Robert Pape’s work:About the show:
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  The Future of PTSD Treatment Is Already Here. Why Can’t Veterans Access It? 25.06.2026 1ώ 29λ

  In the final episode of our PTSD series, Scott speaks with Dr. Jessica Maples Keller of Emory University about the future of psychedelic-assisted therapy for PTSD.Emory has been studying MDMA and psilocybin in a clinical setting, with a focus on how these treatments might enhance evidence-based care like prolonged exposure therapy. Dr. Maples Keller explains how clinical trials are designed, why Schedule I status creates major barriers, what safety screening looks like, and why access and cost may become the next major challenge even if psychedelic-assisted treatments are eventually approved.Then LTG(R) Walt Piatt, CEO of Wounded Warrior Project, returns to close out the series. He reflects on where the veteran community stands in addressing PTSD, what the VA and DoD are getting right and wrong, and whether the innovation happening across nonprofits, universities, and private organizations is a hopeful story about American civil society — or a sign that government systems are still moving too slowly.This episode asks a simple question: if the future of PTSD treatment is already being built, why are so many veterans still waiting?Guests:Dr. Jessica Maples Keller — Associate Professor, Emory University School of MedicineLTG(R) Walt Piatt — CEO, Wounded Warrior ProjectResources:Emory Healthcare Veterans Program:https://www.emoryhealthcare.org/centers-programs/veterans-programFor information about Emory psychedelic-assisted therapy studies:PATstudy@emory.eduMAPS — Multidisciplinary Association for Psychedelic Studies:https://maps.org/STRONG STAR:https://www.strongstar.org/Compass Pathways:https://compasspathways.com/Heroic Hearts Project:https://heroicheartsproject.org/Oregon Psilocybin Services:https://www.oregon.gov/psilocybinAustralia Therapeutic Goods Administration — MDMA and psilocybin:https://www.tga.gov.au/products/unapproved-therapeutic-goods/mdma-and-psilocybineWounded Warrior Project:https://www.woundedwarriorproject.org/
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  The Deal Is Signed. The War Isn’t Over. | Robert Pape on Iran 22.06.2026 31λ

  This is the latest episode in The Escalation Trap, an ongoing series with Robert Pape of the University of Chicago tracking the war with Iran in real time. The U.S. and Iran have signed a memorandum of understanding. But according to Pape, that does not mean the war is over. Instead, the battlefield may be shifting to the negotiations themselves. Pape argues that while the U.S. and financial markets may view the agreement through a business-deal lens — oil flows, payments, stability, and costs — Iran may be approaching the negotiations through a balance-of-power lens. The question is not simply what the deal says. The question is whether the deal locks in a new regional balance of power. In this episode, we discuss what the MOU means, why Hormuz remains central, how Iran may use negotiations to gain leverage, what Hezbollah and Lebanon mean to Iran’s regional strategy, and why Israel may now face a far more difficult strategic environment. Why a signed deal does not necessarily mean peace How negotiations can become a battlefield of their own Why the business-deal model may miss the real power dynamics How Iran may use the MOU to lock in regional gains Why the Strait of Hormuz remains central to Iran’s leverage What Hezbollah and Lebanon mean to Iran’s regional strategy Why Israel may be in deep strategic trouble How the U.S.-Israel relationship could change under pressure What this means for Jordan, Egypt, and Gulf states Whether Iran could overreach in the negotiations A deal may stop the immediate shooting. But if the agreement shifts power toward Iran, the conflict may simply be entering a new phase. The war may not be ending. It may be moving to the negotiating table. New episodes released weekly as the conflict evolves. Escalation Trap Substack: https://escalationtrap.substack.com At the Water’s Edge delivers practitioner-level insight into national security and geopolitics — bridging academic theory with how conflicts actually unfold in the real world. In this episode:Key takeaway:Follow the series:Follow Robert Pape’s work:About the show:
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  Why Veterans Are Going Overseas for Psychedelics | PTSD Part 2 17.06.2026 51λ

  Why Veterans Are Going Overseas for Psychedelics In part two of our PTSD series, Scott speaks with Jesse Gould, founder of the Heroic Hearts Project and a former Army Ranger from the 75th Ranger Regiment, about why some veterans are seeking psychedelic-assisted treatment outside the traditional U.S. medical system. Jesse shares his own story of leaving the military, struggling with PTSD, anxiety, depression, alcohol misuse, and hypervigilance, and eventually traveling to Peru for ayahuasca after feeling that the available treatment options were not enough. That experience led him to launch Heroic Hearts Project, a nonprofit helping veterans access legal psychedelic-assisted programs while emphasizing preparation, safety, screening, and integration. This conversation explores the promise, risk, controversy, and policy questions surrounding psychedelic treatment for veterans. It is not a discussion about miracle cures. It is about what happens when veterans run out of options, why many are looking beyond the VA, and whether the American medical system is ready for what may be coming next. Learn more about Heroic Hearts Project:https://www.heroicheartsproject.org/ Topics discussed: PTSD, veteran mental health, ayahuasca, psilocybin, MDMA-assisted therapy, the VA, alternative treatments, integration, risk mitigation, and the future of psychedelic medicine for veterans. Note: This episode is for informational purposes only and is not medical advice. Anyone considering treatment for PTSD or other mental health conditions should consult qualified medical professionals.
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  A Deal Doesn’t End This War | Robert Pape on Iran 15.06.2026 34λ

  This is the latest episode in The Escalation Trap, an ongoing series with Robert Pape of the University of Chicago tracking the war with Iran in real time. Reports suggest the U.S. and Iran may be moving toward a deal. But Pape argues that a signing ceremony, memorandum, or public claim of victory does not necessarily mean the war is ending. For frontline U.S. forces in CENTCOM and the Gulf, the real signal is not diplomatic language. The real signal is whether U.S. forces physically leave the region. Until ships, aircraft, Marines, ground forces, tanker support, and carrier groups are actually withdrawn, the escalation trap remains in place. In this episode, we discuss what a possible agreement really means, why the 60-day negotiation window could increase Iran’s leverage, how oil inventories and energy markets affect escalation risk, and why Israel may become more isolated as Gulf states hedge toward Iran. Why a deal does not necessarily mean peace What U.S. forces in the Gulf should actually watch Why physical withdrawal matters more than diplomatic language How the 60-day negotiation window could shape escalation risk Why oil inventories give Iran growing leverage What the agreement could mean for Israel, Lebanon, and Hezbollah Whether Gulf states are hedging or bandwagoning toward Iran Why the Abraham Accords framework may be in trouble How the conflict could reshape nuclear deterrence debates in the region A deal is not the off-ramp unless the force posture changes. If U.S. forces remain in the Gulf, the war is not over. New episodes released weekly as the conflict evolves. At the Water’s Edge delivers practitioner-level insight into national security and geopolitics — bridging academic theory with how conflicts actually unfold in the real world. In this episode:Key takeaway:Follow the series:About the show:
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  Surviving War Was Only the Beginning | PTSD Part 1 11.06.2026 1ώ 7λ

  Surviving war is only the beginning for many veterans. In Part 1 of this series on post-traumatic stress disorder, At the Water’s Edge examines what PTSD is, why it is so often misunderstood, why many veterans wait years before receiving care, and what effective treatment can look like. This episode features three voices from Wounded Warrior Project: Dr. Erin Fletcher, Director of Warrior Care Network; Ryan Kules, an Iraq veteran who lost an arm and a leg in an IED attack and now leads Project Odyssey; and John Eaton, Vice President for Complex Care. Together, they explain how trauma affects the brain and body, why stigma and system friction keep veterans from care, how evidence-based treatment works, and why recovery is possible. Before this series turns to psychedelic medicine and the future of PTSD treatment, we start with the foundation: PTSD is real, it is treatable, and getting care can change a veteran’s life.
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  Iran Is No Longer Just Surviving | Robert Pape on the Escalation Trap 08.06.2026 33λ

  This is the latest episode in The Escalation Trap, an ongoing series with Robert Pape of the University of Chicago tracking the war with Iran in real time. After 100 days of war, Pape argues that the conflict is no longer in its opening phase — but it is nowhere near over. Instead, the war has entered what he calls the middle of the escalation trap: a grinding phase where weeks of boredom can be punctuated by hours of terror. The key shift, according to Pape, is that Iran is no longer just trying to survive. Its ambitions are growing. In this episode, we discuss how Iran may be moving from survival toward dominance in the Persian Gulf, what that means for U.S. forces in the region, why the Red Sea could become the next major pressure point, and how financial markets may be underestimating geopolitical risk. Why the war has entered the middle phase of the escalation trap How Iran’s goals may be shifting from survival to ambition Why Iran may seek dominance in the Persian Gulf What it means for Iran to become a fourth center of world power Why the Red Sea could become the next major pressure point How Houthi threats to shipping could affect global oil markets Whether Iran could overplay its hand Why financial markets struggle to price geopolitical risk How the war could bookend the era of American unipolarity The longer this war continues, the more Iran’s ambitions may expand. This is no longer just about whether Iran survives. It is about what Iran may become if the escalation trap continues. New episodes released weekly as the conflict evolves. At the Water’s Edge delivers practitioner-level insight into national security and geopolitics — bridging academic theory with how conflicts actually unfold in the real world. In this episode:Key takeaway:Follow the series:About the show:
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  Trump Thought Iran Would Collapse. He Was Wrong. | Trita Parsi 05.06.2026 46λ

  President Trump thought Iran would collapse quickly. According to Dr. Trita Parsi, that assumption may be one of the central miscalculations that pulled the United States deeper into war. In this episode of At the Water’s Edge, Scott Kelly speaks with Dr. Trita Parsi, co-founder and Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, about the war with Iran, the limits of American coercion, and what a realistic diplomatic off-ramp would require. They discuss why Iran has proven more resilient than Washington expected, where Tehran may have miscalculated, how the U.S. policy process broke down, and why military superiority does not always translate into political control. The conversation also covers the Abraham Accords, Gaza, U.S. military presence in the Middle East, sanctions relief, and whether international humanitarian law can survive in a multipolar world. This is a practitioner-focused conversation about strategy, escalation, diplomacy, and the future of American power. Find more from Trita Parsi here: Trita Parsi’s Substack: https://tritaparsi.substack.com/Quincy Institute: https://quincyinst.org/
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  Bombing and Talking at the Same Time | Robert Pape on Iran and the Escalation Trap 02.06.2026 28λ

  This is the latest episode in The Escalation Trap, an ongoing series with Robert Pape of the University of Chicago tracking the war with Iran in real time. After two weeks of ceasefire claims, strikes, and renewed negotiations, Pape argues that the conflict is not moving toward real stability. Instead, the U.S. and Iran may be entering what he calls a new era of instability. Even if a memorandum of understanding is signed, the underlying issues remain unresolved: nuclear enrichment, Iran’s stockpiles, control of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices, and the U.S. military presence in the Gulf. Pape also warns that diplomacy does not necessarily mean the danger has passed. The U.S. has a long history of bombing and talking at the same time, from Vietnam to Bosnia, and troops in the region should not assume negotiations mean escalation is off the table. Why a possible memorandum of understanding may not change the trajectory of the conflict Why Trump remains stuck in the escalation trap How tactical military success can worsen America’s strategic position Why instability itself may benefit Iran What the oil inventory countdown means for the next 30–60 days Why the Strait of Hormuz remains central to Iran’s leverage What would actually change the military reality for U.S. forces in the Gulf Why bombing and diplomacy can happen at the same time A deal is not the same thing as stability. Unless the underlying force posture changes, the war may remain trapped in a cycle of negotiations, skirmishes, oil pressure, and escalation. New episodes released weekly as the conflict evolves. At the Water’s Edge delivers practitioner-level insight into national security and geopolitics — bridging academic theory with how conflicts actually unfold in the real world. In this episode:Key takeaway:Follow the series:About the show:
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  Former NASA Chief: America Has Lost the Meaning of Power | Iran, Artemis II & U.S. Decline 21.05.2026 1ώ 8λ

  Former NASA Administrator and Secretary of the Navy Sean O’Keefe returns to At the Water’s Edge for a conversation about American power, strategy, space, war, and national identity. At a moment when the United States is confronting conflict with Iran while also advancing the Artemis program, O’Keefe explores a deeper question: what actually makes America powerful? Drawing on decades of leadership across NASA, the Navy, the Office of Management and Budget, academia, and the private sector, O’Keefe discusses why Artemis matters beyond symbolism, how commercial space is changing the future of exploration, what Ukraine’s battlefield innovation reveals about the future of war, and why America’s alliances and credibility may be among its greatest strategic assets. The conversation also examines the limits of military power, the danger of unclear objectives, the challenge of defense procurement, and whether the United States can still mobilize around ambitious national missions. This is a conversation about more than Iran, NASA, or the Moon. It is about whether America still understands the sources of its own power.
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  The War That Ends American Dominance | Robert Pape on Iran 19.05.2026 37λ

  The war with Iran may be more than another crisis in the Middle East. In this latest installment of The Escalation Trap, Robert Pape argues that the conflict is becoming a hinge event — almost the inverse of the 1991 Gulf War. Instead of demonstrating American military dominance, this war may be revealing the limits of U.S. power when tactical military strength no longer produces strategic outcomes. This conversation moves beyond the Gulf to examine what the war means for China, Taiwan, Europe, NATO, India, and the future of American influence. Pape explains why allies are beginning to rethink their assumptions, why America’s security umbrella may be weakening, and why this conflict could accelerate a broader shift in the global order. In this episode: Why the Iran war may be a hinge event for American power How this compares to the 1991 Gulf War Why military dominance may no longer translate into strategic success What Trump’s meeting with Xi could mean for Taiwan Why allies may begin making more independent security decisions How the war is affecting perceptions of U.S. credibility Why America may need a deeper strategy of economic modernization What to watch as the conflict continues Key takeaway: This is no longer just about Iran. It is about whether the post-Cold War era of unquestioned American military dominance is ending — and what comes next. At the Water’s Edge delivers practitioner-level insight into national security and geopolitics, bridging academic theory with how conflict unfolds in the real world.
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  The Danger Zone Is Here | Robert Pape on Iran, Nuclear Weapons, and the Escalation Trap 12.05.2026 36λ

  This is the latest episode in The Escalation Trap, an ongoing series with Robert Pape of the University of Chicago tracking the war with Iran in real time. Pape argues that the conflict has now entered the true danger zone. The negotiation track, he says, may be effectively dead for weeks or months — not because talks are impossible, but because the core issues at stake are zero-sum. Unlike a real estate deal, international politics has no court that can enforce an agreement. When the issues involve nuclear weapons, sovereignty, and control of the Strait of Hormuz, every concession can make a state more vulnerable in the next round. Why the Iran conflict may have entered its most dangerous phase Why negotiations over sovereignty and nuclear weapons are so difficult to sustain Why international courts and institutions cannot enforce great-power bargains Why China and Russia may see U.S. weakness as an opportunity Whether Europe can balance Russia without the United States How nuclear proliferation could either stabilize or destabilize a multipolar world Why the current conflict may accelerate a more dangerous global order How new media formats are widening access to serious national security analysis The danger is not just that negotiations fail. The danger is that each failed negotiation makes escalation look more like the only remaining option. New episodes released weekly as the conflict evolves. At the Water’s Edge delivers practitioner-level insight into national security and geopolitics — bridging academic theory with how conflicts actually unfold in the real world. In this episode:Key takeaway:Follow the series:About the show:
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  Former NSC Official: The Iran War Exposed America’s Broken Strategy | Negah Angha 07.05.2026 50λ

  Former State Department senior advisor and National Security Council official Negah Angha joins At the Water’s Edge to discuss what the war with Iran reveals about American strategy, alliances, and decision-making. Angha explains how major national security decisions are supposed to move through the U.S. government, why inconsistent objectives and poor consultation with allies can weaken American credibility, and how Iran’s pressure on the Strait of Hormuz has exposed vulnerabilities in the global economy. The conversation also covers low-cost drones, the limits of the U.S. defense industrial base, Congress’s role in war powers, the lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan, and the complicated role of diaspora communities in U.S. foreign policy. This episode is about more than Iran. It is a broader look at whether the American national security system can still align military power, diplomacy, alliances, public support, and long-term strategy in a crisis that moves faster than Washington’s bureaucracy.