The Political Risk Podcast

Επεισόδια

• 
  The Reinsurance Paradox: Rising Risk, Falling Prices 17.09.2026 28λ

  David Flandro, head of industry analysis and strategic advisory at Howden Re, discusses a growing reinsurance paradox: global risk is rising, but prices are falling. The episode was recorded as re/insurance executives headed to Monte Carlo for RVS 2026. The conversation explores what geopolitical instability, higher interest rates and the cost of capital mean for the market, whether Middle East losses could prove market-changing, and what combination of shocks it might take to turn the reinsurance cycle. Flandro also explains why geopolitics is becoming increasingly important to the way insurers and reinsurers analyse risk. And you can find Howden Re's "Breaking the glass" report, which we discuss in this episode, right here: https://www.howdenre.com/news-insights/howden-re-releases-breaking-glass
• 
  The Political Violence Reset: Can the Market Stay Sustainable? 07.09.2026 28λ

  Chris Jarvis, group chief underwriting officer at IGI, discusses the reset taking place in political violence insurance.With geopolitical instability and conflict in the Middle East testing underwriting assumptions, Jarvis explains how IGI is adjusting pricing, line sizes, aggregation and capacity across its global portfolio.The discussion explores whether affordability is creating gaps in political violence cover, why IGI sees greater value in some areas of treaty reinsurance than the direct market, and whether political violence insurance can deliver sustainable returns.
• 
  "Peace Through Strength": Has Israel Won Its Wars? 31.08.2026 24λ

  Almost three years on from the October 7 terrorist attacks, Israel has fought across multiple fronts, from Gaza and Lebanon to direct confrontation with Iran.Amiad Cohen, CEO of The Herut Center, argues that Israel has substantially reduced the military threats surrounding it, outperforming pre-war expectations through a strategy he calls “peace through strength”.He discusses whether Israel’s wars are really over, the continuing threat from Iran and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, the security outlook in Gaza and Lebanon, relations with the US and Europe, and what the changing geopolitical landscape means for businesses and insurers.
• 
  Financing Africa: Banks, Insurers and the New Geopolitics of Capital 29.07.2026 26λ

  Sub-Saharan Africa’s government financing landscape has been transformed by credit markets, changing geopolitics, and new sources of capital. This special episode, produced in association with Mosaic Insurance, features Katharine Villers, political risk underwriter and head of commercial finance at Mosaic, and Nick James, director, structured finance at ICBC Standard Bank. They explore how the continent’s financing system has evolved, the changing geopolitics of capital, and the role that banks and insurers are playing in supporting investment and development.
• 
  From Events to Insights: Learning from PVT and SRCC events; with Verisk live at Lloyd’s 23.07.2026 29λ

  How can political violence and terrorism insurers turn recent events into better underwriting insights? Recorded live at Lloyd’s during Verisk’s “Insuring Political Violence, SRCC, and Terrorism Forum”, this special episode brings together Alex Baker of Chaucer, Guy Burrows of Inigo and Torbjorn Soltvedt of Verisk Maplecroft. The panel explores the underwriting lessons emerging from recent geopolitical events, including the 2026 Iran war, changing targeting patterns and the sparks that can trigger strikes, riots and civil commotion. The discussion also examines data quality, predictive modelling, portfolio resilience, hybrid conflict, claims information and the tools underwriters need to navigate an increasingly complex political violence landscape.
• 
  SRCC: The Emerging Portfolio Peril 16.07.2026 38λ

  Strikes, riots and civil commotion (SRCC) have moved from the margins of property and political violence portfolios into sharper focus for insurers and their reinsurers. This special episode with Lockton Re features senior catastrophe modeller George Wragg and consultant Paul Upton, along with Blackthorn head of advisory Jerry Smith. They discuss why the SRCC threat is important, the sociopolitical forces driving social unrest, how SRCC losses can accumulate across insurer portfolios, and the serious data and analytics challenges that face the early attempts at SRCC catastrophe risk modelling.
• 
  John Hulsman on Trump’s Deal with Iran, the Balance of Power, Political Risk Wargaming and Forecasting 30.06.2026 53λ

  Forecasting phenomenon Dr John Hulsman returns to the podcast. John has made a name for himself as a pre-eminent predictor of geopolitical risk in the multipolar era. He prides himself on his ‘call record’, beating those of his rivals. We discuss Trump’s deal with Iran, the balance of power in the Middle East, political risk forecasting at the halfway point of 2026, the use of war gaming as a tool for corporate decision-makers, and the wider implications of deal-making, alliances and governance in a multipolar world.President and managing partner of John C Hulsman Enterprises, John is a leading foreign policy analyst, forecaster and geopolitics consultant for corporations and governments around the world. He is author of more than a dozen other books, including his most recent “The Last Best Hope: A History of American Realism”. He previously served as fellow in European policy studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He was a senior research fellow in geopolitics and foreign policy at the Heritage Foundation, and he is a life member of the US Council on Foreign Relations.
• 
  Mobilising Capital: Credit and Political Risk Insurance and the Future of Global Investment, with AXA XL's Rafael Docavo Malvezzi 04.06.2026 35λ

  Credit and political risk insurance has become a critical tool for mobilising capital into complex markets, supporting trade, investment and development finance through a period of heightened geopolitical and credit uncertainty. In this episode, Rafael Docavo-Malvezzi, global chief underwriting officer, political risk credit and bond at AXA XL, discusses the credit cycle, underwriting challenges, development finance and the role of the private market in supporting global investment. He also reflects on his career across risk management, economics and insurance, as well as his role as vice president of the Berne Union.
• 
  Choke Points & Geopolitical Risk: Resilience Building for Supply Chains in Crisis; in association with Gallagher Specialty 26.05.2026 37λ

  Geopolitical risk is putting global supply chains under renewed pressure, with the Strait of Hormuz crisis adding to existing concerns around trade disruption, tariffs and fragile logistics networks. Alec Russell, managing director, cargo for Arthur J Gallagher International, and Alex Vile, associate consultant, threat intelligence at AnotherDay, a Gallagher company, discuss how organisations are responding to supply chain risk in theory and practice. The conversation explores the immediate impact of Gulf tensions, the structural weaknesses exposed by recent disruption, and the role of insurance, crisis consulting and threat intelligence in building resilience. With nine-in-ten businesses experiencing a supply chain loss, this special episode, produced in association with Gallagher Specialty, examines what companies can do to prepare for the next crisis.
• 
  The Iran Conflict and its effects on Political Violence Re/insurance, with Sandy Warne, Dan Callow & Cosmo Warner 13.05.2026 44λ

  War in the Gulf in 2026 is a defining event for political violence. Underwriters face unprecedented claims activity, with individual Iranian missile and drone strikes accounting for hundreds of millions of dollars in damage, together representing more insured financial loss in just a few weeks than several years of the Russo-Ukrainian war.Sandy Warne of Sukoon, Dan Callow of Starr, and Cosmo Warner of Price Forbes together discuss market reactions, capacity and pricing dynamics, regional exposure concerns and a rapidly evolving risk environment – as well as what’s likely covered or excluded by policies bought before the conflict.The conversation is a shortened audio version of a recent webinar hosted by Global Reinsurance, which was named “Reinsurance in a Time of Escalating Tension”, available here. https://www.globalreinsurance.com/dwic-webinars/webinar-reinsurance-in-a-time-of-escalating-tension/1458331.article
• 
  Hotels as Targets: Data-led Malicious Risk Underwriting; with Muir Analytics’ Jeff Moore 01.05.2026 59λ

  Hotels are increasingly on the frontline of political violence and malicious risk, from terrorism and civil unrest to missile and drone attacks. In this special episode, Jeff Moore, PhD, CEO of Muir Analytics, explains how data-led underwriting and threat intelligence are reshaping how insurers and risk professionals understand and price these exposures. Drawing on case studies from the SecureHotel Threat Portal, the discussion explores why the hotel sector has become one of the most exposed global industries, and what that means for underwriting, risk mitigation and resilience in a volatile geopolitical environment.
• 
  Modern Perils and Modern Assets: UAVs, Data Centres and the Next Frontier of Risk; with Blackthorn’s Jerry Smith and Thea Grootenhuis 13.04.2026 34λ

  Modern perils are colliding with modern assets, as drones and data centres reshape the risk landscape in real time. Blackthorn senior broker Thea Grootenhuis and head of advisory Jerry Smith explore how UAV-enabled attacks, critical infrastructure vulnerabilities, and a volatile geopolitical and malicious risk environment are converging. Drawing on live conflict dynamics in the Gulf, alongside lessons from Ukraine and other global hotspots, the discussion examines how disruption can quickly translate into business interruption and systemic risk. From the democratisation of drone technology to the growing concentration risk around data centres, the conversation asks what steps organisations should be taking now to stay ahead of emerging threats.
• 
  Active Assailant Risk: Data Demands to Underwrite a Deadly Peril 26.03.2026 46λ

  A special episode exploring the rise of active assailant risk and the growing demand for data-driven underwriting in a rapidly evolving threat landscape. Joshua Watson, senior underwriter, war and terrorism, North America, at Markel International, joins Gamze Tekin, senior product owner at Concirrus, to examine how this peril has moved to the forefront of crisis management and political violence insurance.The discussion explores what makes active assailant risk distinct, from its frequency characteristics to its human and financial impact. Active assailant is a peril on the rise, with protection gaps facing corporate buyers, near-daily incidents taking place, and changing US state regulation on workplace violence.Conversation turns to the underwriting challenges for a peril that is far removed from physical damage focus of most PV perils. Additional challenges include managing aggregation and portfolio exposure, and the limits of traditional data when assessing fast-moving, unpredictable threats.The final section focuses on closing the data gap, from real-time risk visibility to AI-enabled underwriting tools designed to support better decision-making in complex scenarios. With attacks increasing, particularly in the US, this episode unpacks why active assailant risk is becoming one of the most pressing and technically challenging areas in specialty insurance today.
• 
  War and terrorism: an integrated approach to claims and underwriting; with LSM's Sarah Howell & Jennie Beard 17.03.2026 27λ

  War, political violence and terrorism demand close coordination between underwriting and claims teams – particularly when geopolitical crises escalate quickly. In this special episode, Sarah Howell, head of first party claims, and Jennie Beard, underwriting manager, war and terrorism, Liberty Specialty Markets, discuss how collaboration works in practice, drawing on experience managing global a portfolio and responding to major loss events. The conversation explores lessons learned from the Russia-Ukraine war, how insurers are adapting processes, the use of open-source intelligence for loss adjusting, and the creation of a Lloyd’s Market Association claims coordination group.
• 
  Middle East update and the evolution of Credit and Political Risk Insurance, with BPL's James Esdaile 05.03.2026 27λ

  The rapidly evolving Middle East crisis forms the start of this conversation with James Esdaile, executive chairman of BPL, examining the immediate implications for insurance markets since the US and Israel began military operations against Iran on Saturday. The interview that follows explores the evolution of credit and political risk insurance (CPRI) and standalone political risk insurance (PRI), different products typically for different buyers with different motivations. Esdaile reflects on his nearly three decades in the market, from joining BPL as a graduate trainee and rising to the top of the dedicated CPRI/PRI insurance broker. Along the way, the conversation touches on geopolitical drivers, expropriation risk, resource nationalism, and Venezuela as another political risk crisis case study to watch.
• 
  Political violence broking and multinational client strategy in a complex threat environment, with Price Forbes’ Cosmo Warner 19.02.2026 32λ

  Political violence entered 2026 in an increasingly complex risk environment and a highly competitive insurance market. Cosmo Warner, director, war, terrorism and political violence at Price Forbes, reflects on recent renewals and what they reveal about the state of the market. The conversation explores how London’s specialty market is balancing soft pricing with emerging loss activity and shifting client expectations. We examine demand dynamics within multinational portfolios, why London remains the pre-eminent hub for PV, and where competitive pressures could begin to erode that position. Recent claims activity is assessed, including how underwriters are reacting to soft pricing and the flow of information when losses occur. Discussion turns to multinational client strategy: how to avoid gaps and duplication between terrorism, political violence and property programmes; and how buyers can use current conditions to strengthen resilience before the cycle inevitably turns.
• 
  Political Risk and Violence Intelligence: Turning Signals into Structured Peril Insights 05.02.2026 32λ

  Canongate AI is a new political risk and political violence intelligence solution that converts millions of geopolitical inputs into structured intelligence for underwriters. Already deployed by specialty insurers, the platform provides underwriters and analysts with a clear, structured view of the geopolitical landscape, distilled by AI, from what would otherwise be an overwhelming flow of raw information.Tim Hurst, Canongate AI’s co-founder and chief technology officer, is joined by James Newport, executive director of forecasting advisory the Swift Centre, for this special episode, to explain how Canongate ingests millions of documents from government sources, corporates, trade unions, NGOs and others, turning these signals into territory and peril specific insights, making sense of a volatile world.
• 
  Political Violence in a dynamic risk environment, with Markel’s Matthew Brooke: SRCC top challenge; War Risk getting closer to home 29.01.2026 21λ

  Matthew Brooke is a senior war and terrorism underwriter at Markel. In this episode he explores how political violence underwriting is evolving within an increasingly uncertain geopolitical environment globally. The conversation begins with Matthew’s role, background and Markel’s political violence portfolio, before moving into how insurers are balancing portfolio management, market competition and risk selection across war, terrorism, sabotage, and civil unrest perils. With social unrest emerging as a persistent challenge for many regions, the discussion also examines how war risk perceptions are shifting, including why some threats now feel closer to home for insureds and underwriters alike. The episode closes by assessing geopolitical uncertainty, buyer behaviours, and the stickiness of political violence demand across some different countries and perils. Enjoy!
• 
  Beyond the Blast: Capital Management of Tomorrow’s Terror Threats 15.01.2026 33λ

  A special episode of the Political Risk Podcast, produced in association with Lockton Re, to examine how the re/insurance market should rethink terrorism risk in an age of volatility. The conversation is built around the report “Beyond the Blast: Capital Management of Tomorrow’s Terror Threats”, published by Lockton Re in collaboration with Blackthorn. It features three of the report’s authors: Paul Upton, chairman of specialty, Lockton Re; Niki Whitley, director of advisory, Blackthorn; and George Wragg, senior catastrophe modeller, Lockton Re.They explore the concerns presented by the report – from the drivers of change in the threat environment, to the need for agile thinking and better data, scenarios and risk modelling – contributing to challenges for terrorism reinsurance to remain relevant and provide capital efficiency. Here’s a link to the report we’re discussing.https://global.lockton.com/re/en/news-insights/beyond-the-blast-new-report-from-lockton-re-and-blackthorn-considers-capital
• 
  Geopolitics, Leadership and Risk at Mach 2, with John 'Dragon' Teichert, Brig Gen, US Air Force (ret) 05.01.2026 40λ

  John Teichert is a recently retired US Air Force brigadier general and former test pilot for the F-22 stealth fighter. A graduate of MIT and Stanford, John flew combat missions in the F-15E, call-sign “Dragon”, and test piloted the F-22 Raptor. He later commanded Joint Base Andrews and Edwards Air Force Base. He went on to serve as the senior US Defense Official in Iraq and finished his military career overseeing international partnerships for the USAF. We explore test piloting as the ultimate risk management role, lessons from real-world geopolitics, and leadership under extreme pressure, including reflections on friendships with legendary test pilots Chuck Yeager and Eric “Winkle” Brown.A high-speed start to 2026.