Economic Indicators with Fexingo: GDP, CPI, PMI, and Reading the Macro Data

Episodios

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  Why Businesses Are Rebuilding Inventories Again 28.07.2026 6m

  After months of destocking, total business inventories rose by $8 billion in May 2026. Lucas and Luna break down what this shift means for GDP growth, the labor market, and why the yield curve's recession signal might be wrong. With the unemployment rate at 4.2% and jobless claims at 187,000, is the inventory rebuild the first sign of sustained expansion? They also discuss the divergence between falling CPI and rising core PCE, and what the Fed is likely watching. #BusinessInventories #InventoryRestocking #GDPGrowth #EconomicIndicators #FedPolicy #InvertedYieldCurve #JoblessClaims #CorePCE #CPI #SupplyChain #IndustrialProduction #CapacityUtilization #MacroData #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #LucasAndLuna #Mid2026Economy Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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  Why Core PCE Is Stubborn While CPI Falls 27.07.2026 6m

  In episode 138, Lucas and Luna unpack a puzzling disconnect in the latest economic data: the Consumer Price Index dropped to 332.6 in June, but the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge, core PCE, continued to edge higher. With real GDP growth accelerating to 2.1% and the labor market still tight at 187,000 jobless claims, they explore why inflation isn't falling uniformly. They break down the compositional differences between CPI and PCE, the role of rising import costs, and what this means for the Fed's next move. Whether you're a macro watcher or just trying to understand why your grocery bill feels different from the headlines, this episode offers a clear, data-driven look at the paradox of cooling consumer prices versus persistent underlying inflation. #CorePCE #CPI #FedPolicy #Inflation #EconomicIndicators #GDPGrowth #JoblessClaims #LaborMarket #ImportPrices #MacroData #Economics #CentralBank #FOMC #ConsumerPrices #ProducerCosts #MarketVolatility #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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  Why Import Prices Are Surging While Consumer Inflation Cools 27.07.2026 4m

  In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down the surprise jump in import prices in July 2026—costs of goods from China hit their highest since 2008. They explore why this is happening against a backdrop of falling CPI and core inflation, the role of Trump's new tariff plans, and what global monetary tightening (Singapore's surprise move) means for the Fed. With specific data points on the 10-year breakeven rate and jobless claims, they unpack whether this is a temporary blip or a new inflationary wave. A must-listen for anyone tracking the macro outlook mid-2026. #ImportPrices #Inflation #CPI #TradeTariffs #China #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #Singapore #EconomicIndicators #MacroData #GlobalEconomy #BreakevenInflation #JoblessClaims #GDP #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Podcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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  Why the Fed Watches Core PCE More Than CPI 26.07.2026 6m

  In June 2026, headline CPI fell to 332.6 from 333.98, a rare decline that grabbed headlines. But the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index, actually rose to 131.5 from 130.94, and core PCE ticked up to 130.1. So which number matters more? In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down the structural differences between CPI and PCE—scope, weighting, and formula effects—and explain why the Federal Reserve has anchored its 2% target to core PCE since 2012. They also examine the labor market context, with initial jobless claims dropping to 187,000, and discuss how Fed watchers like Kevin Warsh are parsing the central bank's latest language. If you've ever been confused by conflicting inflation headlines, this episode gives you the framework to read between the numbers. #CPI #PCE #FederalReserve #Inflation #CorePCE #EconomicIndicators #KevinWarsh #LaborMarket #JoblessClaims #MonetaryPolicy #Economics #GDP #ConsumerSpending #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroData #FedWatch #InflationTarget Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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  What the 187000 Jobless Claims Number Really Means 26.07.2026 6m

  Initial jobless claims just dropped to 187,000 — the lowest since early 2025. But hiring remains sluggish, and the quits rate is falling. In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna unpack the paradox: why layoffs are near record lows while employers aren't rushing to add workers. They explore three possible explanations, including labor hoarding, skill mismatches, and a cautious Fed cycle. Live data on JOLTS openings, hourly earnings, and capacity utilization inform the discussion. A must-listen for anyone trying to read the real temperature of the U.S. labor market. #JoblessClaims #LaborMarket #InitialClaims #HiringSlow #QuitsRate #JOLTS #Unemployment #FedPolicy #LaborHoarding #SkillMismatch #HourlyEarnings #CapacityUtilization #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicIndicators #MacroData #UStreasury Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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  Why Layoffs Are Low But Hiring Is Slow 25.07.2026 7m

  Initial jobless claims have plunged to 187,000, a multi-month low, yet the U.S. economy added only 57,000 jobs in June 2026. Lucas and Luna unpack this labor market paradox: companies are holding onto workers but barely hiring. They explore reasons including pandemic-era labor hoarding, skill mismatches, geographic frictions, and what this means for the Fed's next move. With the unemployment rate ticking down to 4.2% and job openings still elevated at 7.6 million, the hosts question whether this 'low churn, low hiring' equilibrium is sustainable. A must-listen for anyone tracking the economic data behind the soft-landing narrative. #LaborMarket #JoblessClaims #Payrolls #Unemployment #NonfarmPayrolls #JOLTS #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #FederalReserve #SoftLanding #Hiring #Layoffs #LaborHoarding #SkillsMismatch #EconomicIndicators #DataDriven #Podcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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  Why the 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate Matters Now 24.07.2026 7m

  Lucas and Luna drill into the 10-year breakeven inflation rate—currently at 2.28 percent—and what it reveals about market expectations for inflation, Fed policy, and economic growth in mid-2026. They explain how this single number is constructed from TIPS versus nominal Treasury yields, why it's been stuck near 2.3 percent despite CPI volatility, and what a flat breakeven signals about investor conviction. The episode walks through the implications for real GDP growth, the Fed's next move, and how listeners can use breakevens as a real-time check on their own inflation assumptions. No forecasts, just a clearer lens on the data. #Inflation #BreakevenInflation #TIPS #TreasuryYields #FedPolicy #RealGDP #CPI #CorePCE #BondMarket #EconomicIndicators #MarketExpectations #MacroData #July2026 #Economics #Finance #InvestmentStrategy #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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  What Falling Jobless Claims and Rising Yields Tell Us About the Economy 23.07.2026 9m

  In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into two seemingly contradictory data points from July 2026: jobless claims dropped to 187,000, the lowest in months, while the ten-year Treasury yield pushed above 4.7 percent. They explore what falling claims suggest about the labor market's resilience, why bond yields are rising despite cooling inflation, and how investors should interpret the tension between a strong jobs picture and higher borrowing costs. The hosts walk through the mechanics of initial claims as a real-time signal, the bond market's focus on fiscal risk and term premiums, and what this spread means for rate-sensitive sectors. A focused, analyst-level conversation for anyone trying to make sense of the mid-2026 macro landscape. #JoblessClaims #BondYields #TenYearTreasury #InitialClaims #LaborMarket #Inflation #FederalReserve #TermPremium #FiscalPolicy #RateHikes #EconomicData #Macro #Investing #July2026 #Economics #Podcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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  Understanding the Beige Book and What the Fed Is Saying 23.07.2026 8m

  In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into the Federal Reserve's Beige Book and what it reveals about the current economic landscape in mid-2026. They dissect the latest Fed communication — focusing on Governor Kevin Warsh's recent comments and how markets interpret his phrasing. The hosts tie the Beige Book's anecdotal evidence to real data points: the drop in initial jobless claims to 208,000 and the surprising decline in wholesale prices. They explore why the Fed is signaling caution despite a low unemployment rate and sticky core inflation. Listeners get a concrete framework for reading between the lines of central bank language and understanding what it means for rate decisions ahead. No jargon — just clear, actionable insight for anyone tracking the economy. #FederalReserve #BeigeBook #KevinWarsh #MonetaryPolicy #CentralBanking #Inflation #InterestRates #JoblessClaims #WholesalePrices #FedWatch #EconomicIndicators #PolicyLanguage #Economics #Podcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MarketAnalysis #RateDecision Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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  What Falling Capacity Utilization Tells Us About the Economy 23.07.2026 7m

  Lucas and Luna dive into the latest capacity utilization data — currently at 76.1 percent, just above recessionary levels — and explain why this often-overlooked metric signals more about industrial slack than GDP or unemployment. They trace how capacity utilization has historically led manufacturing layoffs and capital expenditure cuts, and debate whether the current reading is a warning or noise in a services-dominated economy. With industrial production barely positive and business inventories rising, they ask: is the factory floor flashing red, or is the economy simply rebalancing? A focused look at one indicator that investors and policymakers watch closely. #CapacityUtilization #IndustrialProduction #Manufacturing #EconomicIndicators #RecessionSignals #FedPolicy #IndustrialSlack #BusinessCycle #MacroData #FactoryOutput #CapitalExpenditure #LaborMarket #InventoryCycle #GDPGrowth #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicData Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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  Why Dividend Stocks Are Getting Crushed by Falling Yields 22.07.2026 10m

  With the ten-year Treasury yield plunging to 4.65 percent and the two-year at 4.40 percent, dividend-paying stocks are getting squeezed from two sides. Lucas and Luna break down why utilities, REITs, and consumer staples have underperformed the broader market by 8 to 12 percent since June, even as the S&P 500 hits fresh highs. They examine the mechanics: falling bond yields usually boost defensive stocks, but when the yield curve steepens via the short end dropping faster, dividend stocks lose their relative appeal. Lucas walks through the math — a 3.8 percent dividend yield looks less attractive when a risk-free two-year Treasury yields 4.40 percent. They also touch on how the World Cup boost to bars and restaurants created a brief rotation into cyclicals, punishing defensive sectors further. Luna questions whether this signals a broader shift in risk appetite or just a tactical rebalancing ahead of the Fed's July meeting. A focused look at one of the most puzzling market moves of mid-2026. #DividendStocks #FedPolicy #TreasuryYields #YieldCurve #Utilities #REITs #ConsumerStaples #S&P500 #MarketRotation #BondMarket #RiskOnRiskOff #WorldCupEffect #Cyclicals #July2026 #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Podcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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  What the Yield Curve Says About Recession Risk in 2026 22.07.2026 8m

  Lucas and Luna dig into the steepening yield curve in mid-2026. The ten-year Treasury hit 4.63 percent, the two-year sits at 4.37, and the spread has widened to 26 basis points — positive territory after being inverted for over two years. They discuss what a normalizing curve actually signals for growth, credit conditions, and the Fed's next move. With real GDP growth at 2.1 percent and core CPI sticky at 336.1, they ask whether the bond market is predicting a soft landing or a delayed recession. Specific data points from the July 22 market data anchor the conversation. #YieldCurve #TreasuryYields #RecessionSignals #BondMarket #FedPolicy #EconomicIndicators #GDPGrowth #CoreCPI #SteepeningCurve #Inversion #SoftLanding #CreditConditions #MacroData #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna #PodcastEpisode Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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  How Import Prices Are Spiking Despite Falling Wholesale Costs 21.07.2026 9m

  Episode 127 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo dives into a puzzling economic disconnect: why import prices are surging even as wholesale costs decline. Lucas and Luna examine the June 2026 import price data, which showed the biggest jump in costs from China since 2008, while the Producer Price Index unexpectedly fell 0.3 percent. They unpack the roles of tariffs, geopolitical tensions in the Hormuz Strait, and a weaker dollar, and discuss what this means for the Fed's inflation fight and consumer prices ahead. Along the way, they explore the structural shift toward services inflation and how energy volatility complicates the outlook. A must-listen for anyone trying to read the macro tea leaves in mid-2026. #ImportPrices #WholesaleCosts #Inflation #CPI #PPI #China #Tariffs #Geopolitics #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #SupplyChain #EnergyPrices #Dollar #ServicesInflation #EconomicIndicators #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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  Why Producer Prices Signal Consumer Pain Ahead 21.07.2026 7m

  Lucas and Luna break down the surprising June 2026 producer price decline of 0.3% and what it means for consumers. Despite falling wholesale costs, import prices from China hit their highest since 2008. They explore how disinflation at the factory gate doesn't always reach store shelves, especially with rising tariffs and supply chain shifts. The episode also covers capacity utilization dipping to 76.1% and what that says about future production constraints. A concise look at why the PPI-CPI gap matters for your wallet and the Fed's next move. #PPI #ProducerPrices #CPI #Inflation #WholesalePrices #ImportPrices #China #Tariffs #SupplyChain #FederalReserve #CapacityUtilization #Disinflation #EconomicIndicators #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #MacroData #MarketWatch Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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  Capacity Utilization Signals the Next Recession 20.07.2026 9m

  In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into the capacity utilization rate — currently at 76.1% — and what it tells us about the risk of recession in mid-2026. They explain how the Fed watches this number for slack in the economy, why it's been stuck below 80% for over a year, and how it connects to falling inventories and sticky core inflation. With real GDP growth at just 2.1%, they unpack why capacity utilization might be a more honest signal than GDP or unemployment. If you've ever wondered how economists spot a downturn before it hits, this episode gives you the one number to watch. #CapacityUtilization #RecessionWatch #FedPolicy #IndustrialProduction #BusinessInvestment #Manufacturing #EconomicIndicators #GDP #CoreInflation #Inventories #SupplyChain #LaborMarket #MonetaryPolicy #MacroData #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicsShow #July2026 Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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  What Falling Inventories Tell Us About the Economy in Mid-2026 19.07.2026 6m

  Episode 124 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo dives into the surprising rise in total business inventories, which hit $2.736 trillion in May 2026, up from $2.728 trillion in April. While headlines focus on slowing growth, Lucas and Luna unpack what the inventory build really means—suggesting businesses are restocking cautiously rather than signaling demand weakness. They connect the dots to the recent import price spike (Chinese goods at highest since 2008) and the World Cup boost to bars and restaurants, questioning whether the consumer is truly flashing warning signs or just shifting spending. A fresh take on a classic economic signal, grounded in the latest data. #Inventories #BusinessInventories #SupplyChain #EconomicIndicators #GDP #ConsumerSpending #ImportPrices #WorldCupEffect #Restaurants #Retail #WholesalePrices #FederalReserve #RecessionSignals #MacroData #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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  What Falling Inventories Tell Us About the Economy 19.07.2026 7m

  In Episode 123 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into a surprising data point: total business inventories rose in May 2026, but the pace of restocking is lagging behind sales. Using the latest numbers—inventories at $2.736 trillion versus a 2.1% annualized GDP growth rate—they explain why the inventory-to-sales ratio matters more than the absolute level. They explore what this means for Q3 growth, manufacturing demand, and the risk of a sudden restocking boom that could mislead policymakers. If you've ever wondered why economists obsess over warehouse shelves, this episode makes it click. #BusinessInventories #GDPGrowth #SupplyChain #MacroData #EconomicIndicators #InventoryToSalesRatio #WholesaleTrade #Manufacturing #Restocking #Q32026 #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #DataDriven #LucasAndLuna #IndustrialProduction #CapacityUtilization #ConsumerDemand Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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  What Falling Inventories Tell Us About the Economy 18.07.2026 8m

  Lucas and Luna dig into the July 2026 business inventories data to explain why falling stock-to-sales ratios are a more nuanced signal than many assume. They break down how inventory cycles have historically preceded recessions and recoveries, distinguish between planned destocking and forced liquidations, and tie current inventory trends to consumer demand signals and industrial production. Using specific data points from the latest economic reports, they show listeners how to interpret inventory changes as a leading indicator of GDP growth. A concrete, actionable episode for anyone trying to read the macro tea leaves. #BusinessInventories #InventoryCycle #MacroEconomics #GDP #SupplyChain #StockToSalesRatio #IndustrialProduction #ConsumerDemand #RecessionSignals #LeadingIndicators #EconomicData #LucasAndLuna #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #July2026 #DataDriven #PodcastEpisode Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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  Why Import Prices Are Spiking Despite Falling Wholesale Costs 18.07.2026 9m

  Episode 121 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo. Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle: wholesale prices fell 0.3% in June on a steep drop in gasoline, yet import prices just posted a surprise gain — with costs of goods from China hitting their highest since 2008. They unpack how the two measures differ, what the data says about supply-chain pressures and domestic demand, and why the Fed might be more worried about imported inflation than the headline CPI suggests. Along the way they discuss the World Cup boost for bars and restaurants, the recent dip in CPI to 332.6, and what the 10-year breakeven rate of 2.24% implies for inflation expectations. A concise guide to reading past the headlines in mid-2026. #ImportPrices #WholesalePrices #CPI #Inflation #ChinaTrade #FedPolicy #SupplyChain #WorldCup #ConsumerSpending #BreakevenRate #GasolinePrices #Economics #EconomicIndicators #Podcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroData #ServicesInflation Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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  How Capacity Utilization Signals the Next Recession 17.07.2026 6m

  In this episode, Lucas and Luna dive into capacity utilization—an often-overlooked leading indicator that can flag a turning point before GDP does. With the latest data showing utilization stuck at 76.1 percent, they explore why this level historically signals trouble, how it connects to business inventories and the Fed's rate decisions, and what it means for investors and job seekers in mid-2026. Along the way, they reference the recent surprise in wholesale prices and the sticky services inflation that keeps the Fed cautious. A concrete look at one number that tells a bigger story. #CapacityUtilization #EconomicIndicators #LeadingIndicators #RecessionSignals #FederalReserve #Inflation #GDP #IndustrialProduction #BusinessInventories #WholesalePrices #ServicesInflation #MacroData #EconomicOutlook #Investing #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroEconomics Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo