Hold Your Fire!

100 Days Later: Can Trump Find an Off Ramp in the Gulf? 06.06.2026 1h 10m

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Naysan Rafati, Yasmine Farouk, Mairav Zonszein and Michael Hanna about the shaky U.S.-Iran ceasefire and the state of negotiations between the two countries. Richard first speaks with Naysan about continued U.S.-Iran tit-for-tat exchanges, talks over a possible deal, what an initial agreement might entail and whether the confrontation has strengthened Tehran’s hand. Richard then speaks with Yasmine about how Gulf Arab states’ views of the conflict have shifted and U.S.-Gulf Arab relations. Next, Richard speaks with Mairav about Israel’s perspective, calls within the country’s military and security establishment to return to war, Israel’s campaign in Lebanon and why a change in leadership would not necessarily mean a less hawkish Israeli approach. Lastly, Richard speaks with Michael about U.S. domestic politics around an Iran deal, whether Trump can sell the off-ramp currently on offer and how continued ceasefire violations could still trigger another escalation.Listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.For more, check out our Middle East & North Africa page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

India’s Kashmir and Manipur Conflicts and their Consequences 30.05.2026 43m

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s India expert Praveen Donthi about escalating ethnic violence in Manipur and militancy in India-administered Kashmir. They first discuss Manipur, where fighting between the Kuki-Zo and Meitei communities has recently drawn in Naga groups, tracing the roots of the conflict, links to older insurgencies and why New Delhi’s neglect has allowed the crisis to fester. They then turn to Kashmir one year after a militant attack killed 26 people and led to a military confrontation between India and Pakistan. They discuss New Delhi’s repressive measures, Kashmiri political alienation and the threat posed by militants in the region. Lastly, they assess how tensions with Pakistan, uncertainty in U.S.-India ties and global turmoil are reshaping India’s strategic outlook. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Trump-Xi Summit: What Happened in Beijing? 16.05.2026 50m

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Ali Wyne, Crisis Group’s Senior Research and Advocacy Adviser for U.S.-China and Senior Northeast Asia Analyst William Yang, to discuss U.S. President Donald Trump’s summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing. They assess the summit’s broader significance, including what it reveals about Trump’s second-term China policy and the shifting balance of power between Washington and Beijing. They unpack the main points of discussion, from trade and technology to the geopolitical flashpoints in the Gulf and Taiwan. They also examine how Taiwan and other regional capitals are viewing the summit, what China and Taiwan may be learning from recent wars, and where U.S.-China relations could be headed.Listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.For more, check out our U.S. and China pages. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire and An Evolving Battlefield? 09.05.2026 41m

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Olga Oliker, Crisis Group’s European Security director, to discuss the latest developments in Ukraine, more than four years into full-scale war with Russia. They talk about the mood in Kyiv, recent battlefield dynamics and how Ukraine’s military continues to adapt as the war grinds on. They discuss the fallout from the war in the Gulf, including pressure on global missile interceptor stocks and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s diplomatic outreach to Gulf Arab states. They also unpack domestic politics in Ukraine and Russia, including growing criticism of President Vladimir Putin from nationalist circles and Moscow’s anxiety around Victory Day. They also look at Putin’s call for a ceasefire, seemingly motivated by fear that Ukrainian strikes will disrupt Victory Day celebrations. For more, check out our Ukraine page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Jihadist and Separatist Rebels Gain Ground in Mali 01.05.2026 48m

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s deputy Sahel director Ibrahim Yahaya Ibrahim to discuss a major wave of coordinated attacks by the al-Qaeda affiliated Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and Tuareg rebels across Mali. They examine how the offensive unfolded, including the killing of Mali’s defence minister and the fall of the strategic northern city of Kidal. They discuss the nature of the renewed cooperation between JNIM and Tuareg separatists, JNIM’s goals and evolving tactics, and what the attacks mean for the junta’s hold on power and Russia’s role as Bamako’s security partner. They also look at how, on one side, the Burkina Faso and Niger military authorities and, on the other, coastal West African states are responding amid strained relations between the Sahel’s military-led governments and ECOWAS and consider where the crisis may be headed.Listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.For more, check out our report “Understanding JNIM’s Expansion Beyond” the and our Mali page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Lebanon’s Uneasy Truce 25.04.2026 50m

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s Iraq, Lebanon and Syria director Heiko Wimmen about the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire and what might come next. They discuss the damage caused by the latest round of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, with thousands dead and over a million people displaced, mostly from Shia-majority areas in the south, and the situation in Lebanon now. They examine how the Israeli military operations differed across Lebanon and the emergence of a de facto buffer zone to prevent Hezbollah’s return to areas near the border. They talk about how the latest ceasefire came about and how it is perceived among different Lebanese communities. They also assess the state of Hezbollah, how far Israel has weakened the group, its changing relationship with Iran and how the latest fighting has affected support among the group’s Shia base. Finally, they discuss what could cause the ceasefire to unravel and what can be done to shore it up.Listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.For more, check out our weekly Iran Crisis Monitor and our Lebanon page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

What Hope for the U.S.-Iran Talks in Islamabad? 11.04.2026 1h 5m

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Ali Vaez, Yasmine Farouk, Mairav Zonszein, Michael Hanna and Stephen Pomper to discuss the announced ceasefire between Iran, Israel and the U.S. and what might follow. Richard first asks Ali why Iran agreed to a ceasefire, decision-making in Tehran and Iran’s approach to the Islamabad talks. He then speaks with Yasmine about Gulf reactions to the ceasefire, the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and divergent Gulf Arab positions on the negotiations. Richard and Mairav then discuss how Israel views the ceasefire as operations continue in Lebanon and whether Israelis see the war as a success so far. Finally, Richard turns to Michael and Steve to discuss Trump’s threats against Iran, the frantic diplomacy behind the ceasefire, the risk of renewed escalation and what recent weeks reveal about the erosion of international law.For more, check out our Middle East & North Africa page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

After Three Years of War in Sudan, What Hope for a Ceasefire? 07.04.2026 42m

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Sudan expert Shewit Woldemichael and Horn of Africa director Alan Boswell to discuss where Sudan’s war stands as it approaches its fourth year. They examine shifts along the front lines as Sudan’s de facto partition under the two main warring parties, the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces, is becoming increasingly entrenched. They speak about how the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran is affecting dynamics in Sudan. They also discuss the coherence of the two sides, their rival political projects and the role of outside backing in sustaining the war. They unpack the mounting risks of regional spillover, the state of efforts to broker peace, what might break the stalemate in those talks and the devastating toll three years of war have taken on Sudan. For more, check out our statement A Hormuz Initiative to Protect Global Food Security and The Horn episode How the Iran War is Reshaping the Region. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

From Bad to Disastrous: Will Trump Escalate in Iran? 28.03.2026 1h 4m

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Ali Vaez, Yasmine Farouk, Mairav Zonszein, Stephen Pomper and Michael Wahid Hanna to talk about where the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran stands, one month in. Richard first speaks with Ali about reported backchannel talks between Washington and Tehran, the two sides’ largely incompatible demands for ending the war, changes in Iran’s leadership, and the slim prospects for de-escalation as the U.S. deploys more troops to the Gulf. Next, he speaks with Yasmine about how Gulf states see the war, where their views diverge, and what kind of outcome they would like to see when the war ends. He and Mairav talk about why the war continues to enjoy broad support in Israel despite its mounting costs, and what Israeli leaders still hope to achieve. Finally, Richard speaks with Michael and Stephen about Trump’s decision-making as the conflict continues, his erratic messaging, the administration’s options and what off-ramps remain.Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.For more, check out our Statement “Finding an Off-ramp in the Middle East War” and our Middle East & North Africa page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Is Cuba Next? 20.03.2026 44m

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Crisis Group’s Latin America director, Renata Segura and senior policy director, Ivan Briscoe, about what the Trump administration is trying to achieve in Cuba and recent developments in Venezuela. They discuss Washington’s pressure campaign on Cuba, the effects of the U.S. oil blockade, popular frustration on the island and the inner workings of the Cuban regime and the reported talks between Washington and figures within the Cuban regime. They also look at Venezuela, what has changed since Nicolás Maduro’s capture, what is happening with oil revenues and whether the country is moving toward political reform. They assess how the rest of Latin America is reacting to Trump. They ask whether military action against Cuba is a real possibility, and whether a compromise short of full regime change would satisfy Washington and hardline Cuban-Americans.For more, check out our Q&A “Hunger in Havana: Can the U.S. Cutoff Bring Change to Cuba?” and our Latin America & Caribbean page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Escalation or off-Ramp in the Gulf? And What Hope for a Ceasefire in Lebanon? 14.03.2026 52m

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s Lebanon expert David Wood and former Crisis Group President Rob Malley. Richard first talks with David about the escalating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, why Hezbollah decided to launch attacks after the U.S.-Israel war on Iran began, Israel’s war aims in Lebanon and prospects for a ceasefire. Richard then turns to Rob to discuss the U.S.-Israel campaign against Iran, how closely Washington and Israel are aligned in their objectives, whether Iran is pacing itself for a drawn-out conflict, and how Gulf states are reacting as they look for ways to bring the war to an end. They also discuss the danger of further escalation, possible pathways out of the conflict and lessons from years of failed diplomacy with Iran.For more, check out Rob’s article in The New York Times, “Of Course Trump Bombed Iran”, our commentary “A Sprawling Middle East War Explodes” and our Middle East page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Operation Epic Folly? Trump’s and Netanyahu’s War on Iran 07.03.2026 59m

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Ali Vaez, Yasmine Farouk, Mairav Zonszein and Michael Wahid Hanna to talk about how the U.S.-Israel war with Iran is unfolding and what might be next. Richard first speaks with Ali about what is happening inside Iran amid internet blackouts and heavy bombardment, debates around Iran’s leadership and Ali Khamenei’s succession, calculations in Tehran and the risks of state collapse. Next, Richard speaks with Yasmine about Iran’s continued missile and drone attacks on Gulf countries and how Gulf capitals weigh the dangers of escalation against the risks of Iran collapsing. He then speaks with Mairav about Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s strategy, how Israelis are experiencing and viewing the war, and Israel’s renewed operations in Lebanon alongside the Iran campaign. Finally, he speaks with Michael about Washington’s murky motives for entering the war, the lack of domestic support for the campaign, debates about whether Netanyahu dragged U.S. President Donald Trump into war and potential off-ramps.Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.For more, check out our last episode “Regime Change or Regional War? U.S. and Israel Kill Iran’s Supreme Leader” our Iran page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Special Episode: Regime Change or Regional War? U.S. and Israel Kill Iran’s Supreme Leader 01.03.2026 43m

In this special episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Iran director Ali Vaez and Gulf and Arabian Peninsula director Yasmin Farouk to discuss the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran, the regional fallout, and what could come next. Richard first speaks with Ali about the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and what it means for Tehran’s leadership and decision-making. They assess the damage to Iran’s missile capabilities, the risks posed by its remaining nuclear stockpile, and escalation dynamics as Iran retaliates against Israel and countries in the Gulf. Richard then speaks with Yasmine about how Gulf states are responding, their concerns about escalation and the “day after” in Iran, and their anger at Iran’s barrage of missiles and drones.Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.For more, check out our Iran page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Will Ethiopia and Eritrea Start a Regional War? 28.02.2026 44m

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group Africa director Murithi Mutiga about rising Ethiopia–Eritrea tensions and the growing risk of another war in the Horn of Africa. They discuss how political divisions in Tigray and Ethiopia’s push for Red Sea access are sharpening fault lines between Addis Ababa and Asmara. They examine how Gulf and Middle Eastern rivalries could shape any Ethiopia–Eritrea confrontation and increase the risk of wider regional conflagration, including the danger of spillover from Sudan’s war. They also explore how global political shifts are playing out in Africa, reactions to U.S. President Donald Trump’s “Board of Peace” and the prospects for coalitions of mid-sized Western and non-Western powers to act collectively. For more, check out our briefing, “Ethiopia, Eritrea and Tigray: A Powder Keg in the Horn of Africa”, and our Ethiopia-Eritrea page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A Transport Route to Peace in the South Caucasus? 20.02.2026 45m

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Joshua Kucera, Crisis Group’s senior South Caucasus analyst, about progress in Armenia-Azerbaijan peace talks, U.S. involvement and shifting regional politics. They discuss U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance’s recent visit to Yerevan and Baku, why Washington got involved and U.S. efforts to broker agreement on the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) – a proposed transit corridor linking mainland Azerbaijan to its exclave of Nakhchivan through southern Armenia. They talk about whether the corridor could move forward even without a fully ratified peace deal and examine the remaining sticking points. They also assess Türkiye’s expanding role in the region, Iran’s concerns about the corridor, Russia’s waning influence and European policy. They examine why the Trump administration’s peacemaking appears to have been more successful in the South Caucasus than elsewhere. Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.For more, check out Joshua’s recent Analyst’s Notebook, “Vance Visit Reaffirms U.S. Push to End Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict” and our Armenian-Azerbaijani Conflict page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Phase Two in Gaza? 07.02.2026 43m

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Amjad Iraqi, Mairav Zonszein and Max Rodenbeck about President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace and its implications for Gaza. They unpack the structure of the board’s different layers, how Palestinians are reacting to the new Palestinian technocratic Gaza committee and what that committee will do. They look at conditions on the ground in Gaza amid frequent ceasefire violations and Hamas’s continued hold of parts of the strip. They also assess the obstacles to moving the peace plan forward, including working out agreement on the sequencing of Hamas decommissioning weapons, on one hand, and Israeli withdrawing troops and letting in reconstruction aid on the other, as well as the still-uncertain prospects for an international stabilisation force in the strip.For more, check out our recent episodes “Norway’s FM Espen Barth Eide on Greenland, Iran, Trump’s Board of Peace and other crises”, “The Greenland Showdown and Board of Peace at Davos” and our Israel/Palestine page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Norway’s FM Espen Barth Eide on Greenland, Iran, Trump’s Board of Peace and other crises 31.01.2026 44m

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Norway’s Foreign Minister, Espen Barth Eide. They discuss the latest U.S.-Europe tensions over Greenland, Arctic security and Europe’s approach to Washington. They then turn to prospects for a peace deal in Ukraine and what security guarantees might look like. They examine President Trump’s newly announced “Board of Peace” and its implications for Gaza, the danger of another round of U.S. strikes on Iran, the U.S. raid that seized Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro and the outlook for political change in Venezuela. Finally, they reflect on the role of middle powers in a fragmenting world. Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.For more, check out our last episode, The Greenland Showdown and Board of Peace at Davos and our Multilateral Diplomacy page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Greenland Showdown and Board of Peace at Davos 24.01.2026 48m

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Richard Gowan, Olga Oliker and Steve Pomper about U.S. President Donald Trump’s new Board of Peace and whether the transatlantic crisis over Greenland is over.In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts, Richard Gowan, Olga Oliker and Steve Pomper and Richard Gowan to discuss the transatlantic strains over President Donald Trump’s bid to acquire Greenland and his push to expand the mandate of his Board of Peace. He first speaks with Richard to discuss the Board of Peace–originally approved by the UN to oversee Gaza’s administration and reconstruction, but now accompanied by a charter suggesting a wider global mandate and a potential challenge to the UN system. They discuss how the board is viewed at the UN and beyond, who is signing up, what it could deliver in Gaza and whether it may accelerate the erosion of traditional multilateral institutions. Richard then speaks with Olga and Steve about what a rupture in the transatlantic alliance would mean for Ukraine and European security more broadly, and how European leaders can manage their volatile relationship with Washington. Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.For more, check out our Q&A “Waiting at Davos: U.S. Allies Wrestle with Trump’s Threats to Greenland”, our Analyst’s Notebook “Trump Proposes a Bypass to the UN Security Council”, and our “Multilateral Diplomacy” page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

What Next for Iran? 16.01.2026 42m

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Crisis Group’s Iran Director Ali Vaez to discuss the wave of nationwide protests in Iran and what the unrest could mean for the Islamic Republic’s future. They look at what’s behind the protests, what is known about the situation on the ground amid an information blackout and the regime’s brutal crackdown, with a death toll that authorities themselves put in the thousands. They unpack the public anger at the regime, debates over who could rally an opposition, and calls for a referendum and a new constitutional order. They also assess President Donald Trump’s options, including the possibility of U.S. strikes, the risks of escalation or state collapse in Iran, and whether any viable path exists toward political change.Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.For more, check out our latest statement “Iran in Crisis: Time for a Change from Within” and our Iran page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

From Venezuela to Greenland? Trump’s Gunboat Diplomacy 10.01.2026 43m

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Renata Segura and Stephen Pomper about the fallout from the U.S. operation capturing Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, Washington’s push for oil concessions, and the future U.S. Western hemisphere policy.In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard talks with Renata Segura, Crisis Group’s Latin America & Caribbean director, and chief of policy Stephen Pomper, about the fallout from the U.S. operation last weekend seizing Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro. They unpack how the Chavista government is holding together under pressure from the Trump administration to give up control of Venezuelan oil. They examine what’s driving the Trump administration's action in Venezuela and whether a democratic transition is realistically on the horizon. They also explore what precedent the operation sets for Cuba and countries across Latin America, the administration’s sharpening rhetoric around Greenland, and what all this signals about a more openly revisionist U.S. approach to the post–World War II order.Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.For more, check out our statement “Venezuela after Maduro: Transaction or Transition?”, this week’s special episode “What Next for Venezuela?” and our Venezuela page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.