The Rate Guy

Episodios

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  Today's Fed Meeting Recap 16.09.2026 11m

  On this special midweek edisode of The Rate Guy we unpack the first rate hike in 3 years and what it maens for you. 
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  Top 10 Reasons To Hike This Week 14.09.2026 25m

  On this episode of The Rate Guy JP starts with a heavily embellished story about our 5 week hiatus and then we discuss why the market has the odds of a hike this week at 90%! Then we finish with the top 10 (half serious) reasons they should hike this week.  For those that want to read more - here is the link to the Pensford Newsletter. Link the the LA Business Journal article. We'll see you all Wednesday after the Fed meeting!
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  The Decision™ 27.07.2026 30m

  On this episode of The Rate Guy: a Kalshi cautionary tale, what it is about the Fed meeting that has JP on edge, the 10T level experts consider catastrophic, and the top three things you should be watching—not just for this meeting, but moving forward. For the deep dive into monetarism that JP references, check out last week's newsletter: Monetarism for Dummies
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  Big CPI Report Tuesday 13.07.2026 15m

  We discuss this week's CPI report because we think it could be a big driver of interest rates not just for this month but really how the Market receives the Fed's reaction function to the inflation related to oil.
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  The Real Unemployment Rate is 4.6% 05.07.2026 26m

  On this episode of The Rate Guy you get a story of JP wrestling with a bat (yes a real live bat), his thoughts on the market's frustration with Warsh and what the real unemployment rate is and why. 
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  Hot Jobs Report Due on Thursday 28.06.2026 12m

  On this episode of The Rate Guy, we talk inflation, GDP, Jobs and what's really killing caps right now. 
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  Fed Meeting Recap 17.06.2026 18m

  On this episode of The Rate Guy we recap today's FOMC meeting and cover any happenings, surprise statements and of course Warsh's tie color.
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  Our First Warsh Fed Meeting Wednesday 14.06.2026 18m

  On this episode of The Rate Guy, we talk about last week's jobs number, Warsh's first ever Fed meeting, what position are traders pouring into at a historic level and how a resolution in Iran affect the 10T. 
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  What Would Cause The Fed To Hike This Year 26.05.2026 39m

  On this episode of The Rate Guy we take a trip down memory lane. Revisiting similar economic times in history to build a framework for what the Fed might do this year. We take a look at GDP, Money Supply, Inflation, Oil...all of the key touchpoints and which of those we should be payint the most attention to. 
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  What Brings Rates Back Down? 18.05.2026 21m

  On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss what the Market is laser focused on right now and what needs to happen to bring relief to the 10T.
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  Headline Jobs Added 115k, But Lost 424k Full Time Positions 11.05.2026 28m

  We're back baby and we're excited about it....well JP's not, but he's got no choice. Today we talk about inflation, Jobs, the new Fed chair, 10T, Caps, Raising interest rates....all of the things! Thanks for your patience with us during our haitus, we break down why during the first 4 minutes. See you next week!  
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  Friday Was One of The Most Volatile Weeks On Record 23.03.2026 11m

  On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the extreme volatility of last week, what it means for rate caps, the 10T and what to be on the look out from the Fed in the upcoming weeks. 
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  No, The Fed Wont Hike Because of Oil 15.03.2026 12m
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  The Ickiest Jobs Report in Five Years 08.03.2026 24m

  On this episode of The Rate Guy, we break down the economic impact of the war in Iran, a weak jobs report, and what it means for oil, inflation, and the timing of the next rate cut. The cushion the economy has relied on for the past few years may be gone, and the margin for error is getting much smaller.
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  Tariffs, Medals, and Stoats 23.02.2026 19m

  On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP draws some parallels between the winter olympics and happenings in the US Market. Gold, Silver, Bronze and Stoat are awarded.  Big congrats to USA Men's and Women's Hockey Teams who took home Gold this Winter Olympics! Link to Newsletter to see graphs referenced. 
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  CNBC Talking Heads Fall For The Job Headlines...Again 15.02.2026 15m

  On this week's episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the SaaSpocalypse, 3 key take aways from the Jobs Report, how (& why) we are in a disinflationary environment right now and how all of that will determine if the Fed cuts this year. 
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  3 Things to Know About Kevin Warsh 02.02.2026 28m

  On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP breaks down the 3 things you absolutely need to know about Kevin Warsh being nominated as the new Fed Chair and can Thom Tillis block his nomination like he said he will. 
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  Fed Meeting Recap 29.01.2026 13m

  Miss the Fed meeting today? We've got you!  We translate all the Fed-speak and highlight our favorite moments and key takeaways - like what advice J Powell has for the next Fed Chair. 
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  Fed Meeting Wednesday 26.01.2026 19m

  On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss what some of you may have forgotten...the Fed meeting is this week! We cover the Supreme Court's take on the Lisa Cook case, 10T behaviours, China "dumping" Treasurys and info about caps that our floating rate borrowers might be interested in.  Here is the link for the Pensford Cap Pricer that we discussed.  See you all Wednesday night for the FOMC recap!
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  DOJ Plans to Indict Powell 12.01.2026 16m

  We know this is a little early to call, but this will be the most important episode of the year. So if you listen to nothing else, listen to this one. Shocking news came out late Sunday night. This has literally never happened since the existence of the Federal Reserve. The Department of Justice served the Federal Reserve with grand jury subpoenas, threatening a criminal indictment related to Jerome Powell's testimony before the Senate Banking Committee last June. In this episode we discuss the historical impact of this move and the impact it may have. We also reveal something that had JP completely shook. You can't make this up folks, 2026 is off to an unprecedented start.  Link to Jerome Powell's statement  And we will touch on this again, but we mentioned the LoanBoss redesigned website and completely rebuilt software.  So if you want to check it out - here you go.