Moody's Talks - Inside Economics — Taskuhääling

Economic Data Dump 29.05.2026 1t 16min

Three economists. Three opinions. The Inside Economics team worked through a panoply of fresh releases, covering GDP, spending, income, new-home sales, durable goods orders, and inflation, to piece together the true state of the economy. Three tricky statistics tested the team in the stats game before a three-part listener question closed things out.

Third Time’s the Charm 22.05.2026 49min

After two failed attempts at recording the podcast due to technical issues, the team finally nails it on the third try. In a light data week, the team discusses the wide disparity in sentiment between consumers, stock investors, and business leaders. The team discusses Mark’s recent meetings with Brazilian clients, Marisa’s trip to Silicon Valley, and Cris’s meeting with banking clients and their takeaways about the moods among those audiences. The podcast concludes with a set of thought-provoking listener questions, most of which are related to AI.

Mr. Financial System 19.05.2026 50min

If you want to get the skinny on anything related to financial markets or the financial system, then you need to talk with Samim Ghamami, Chief Economist of the New York state Insurance Fund. That’s what Mark and Cris do on this podcast. The conversation begins with the outlook for interest rates, turns to a perspective on a popular AI narrative that artificial intelligence will push rates up further by spurring investment and reducing household savings, and closes with a timely look at private credit and the risks it may pose to the broader financial system.

Focus on the Fed 15.05.2026 56min

On this momentous day at the Federal Reserve, with Jay Powell handing over the chair to Kevin Warsh, the Inside Economics team, along with guest Julia Coronado, Founder of Macropolicy Perspectives, and colleague Martin Wurm, consider all things related to the venerable institution. There’s, of course, the issue of Fed independence, and beyond that, what changes the new Fed chair may champion. And soaring stock prices and bond yields, and what they mean for the economy, couldn’t help but be topics of conversation.

Inflation: No Quick Fix 12.05.2026 40min

In a quick-hitting mini-podcast, Mark and Cris are joined by colleague Matt Colyar to discuss April’s (hot) consumer price index data. U.S. inflation has accelerated dramatically since the war in Iran began. Matt breaks down April’s report and opines about where inflation is likely headed from here. Amid affordability concerns and an approaching election, the crew then evaluates recent proposals put forward by policymakers to alleviate some of the burden on U.S. consumers.

Jobs: Soft, Stable, or Something Else 08.05.2026 1t 1min

The Inside Economics crew dives into the April employment report. Despite better-than-expected headline job growth, they debate the best way to characterize the current state of the labor market. The team agrees that despite a still-low unemployment rate, there are reasons to be concerned. The stats game proves particularly difficult, but delivers key insights about the labor market, and also provides some key figures to watch moving forward.

Inside AI with Anthropic's Peter McCrory 01.05.2026 1t 9min

Peter McCrory, the Head of Economics at AI juggernaut Anthropic, joins the Inside Economics team to consider all things AI and the economy. The discussion begins with how the group is using Claude in our work, then shifts to AI’s current and expected lift to productivity, and to the underappreciated economic ramifications of AI. It turns out that Lancaster PA, is turning out some great economists.

An Economic Grab Bag 24.04.2026 1t 12min

Mark, Cris and Marisa recap the week’s economic news, including the now highly likely confirmation for the Fed Chair nominee, Kevin Warsh, the ongoing conflict in Iran and its impact on energy and related commodities, and the proposed bailout of Spirit Airlines. After the stats game, the team takes a few thought-provoking listener questions about tax policy and tariffs.

3 Lenses, 1 Economy 17.04.2026 1t 5min

Stock prices are hitting new records, while consumer sentiment has fallen to record lows. Businesses are of mixed minds. What’s driving this disconnect—and who’s right? Mark and Cris are joined once again by colleague Matt Colyar to break down the divergence between investors, consumers, and business leaders. Their insights reveal key dynamics shaping the economic outlook. Plus, the statistics game returns – back by overwhelming listener demand.

Oil, Cows and Taxes 10.04.2026 1t 4min

The Inside Economics team is joined by Matt Colyar to discuss the week’s loaded economic data slate. First, Matt offers a detailed reaction to March’s hot CPI report – the first inflation data capturing effects from the conflict in the Middle East. Next, the group discusses how each is thinking about their recession probabilities in light of the tenuous ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran and the latest economic data. The group closes, of course, with the numbers game where Mark reveals that he doesn’t file his own taxes, and despite not eating meat, Cris provides an update on how America’s steakhouses are faring amid rising beef costs.

Curb Your (Job Market) Enthusiasm 03.04.2026 1t 10min

The Inside Economics crew (minus Dr. DeAntonio) parses the March jobs report, which came in surprisingly strong. They all agree that the headline number is deceptive and the labor market is actually quite weak and poised to weaken further in the wake of the conflict in the Middle East. Mark unveils his new take on the Sahm Rule indicator, which points to a surprising conclusion. The stats game is back (and not going anywhere), and the team takes several good listener questions.

The Sages of CRE 31.03.2026 45min

Moody's commercial real estate experts Tom LaSalvia and Kevin Fagan join Mark, Marisa, and Cris to take stock of where CRE markets stand today. Tom and Kevin go beyond the headlines to unpack the nuances driving the office market's uneven recovery, multifamily's supply-driven growing pains, and retail's quiet comeback. Their verdict: measured confidence — provided the broader economy cooperates. As a bonus, Tom reveals the philosopher alter ego hiding inside each host. Spoiler alert: not everyone gets to be Socrates.

Weighing Recession Probabilities 27.03.2026 33min

Hostilities with Iran are entering their second month, and the damage to financial markets and the economy is mounting. The Inside Economics team and colleague, Shandor Whitcher, take up the question of what it all means for the prospects of recession. Shandor tells us about his prescient random forest model of the probability of recession starting in the next year, and it’s not encouraging. Odds are still less than half, but not by much, and the direction of travel is disconcerting.

Markets Down, Recession Risks Up 20.03.2026 57min

Mark, Cris and Marisa recap the week’s events in the Middle East and at the Fed and debate whether or not the baseline forecast warrants a rethink given the rising uncertainty around how and when the conflict in the Middle East will end. The crew discusses the tumultuous week in financial markets, the impact that prolonged high oil prices could have on the U.S. economy, and what this means for the risk of a recession over the next year. They answer several listener questions on a wide range of topics.

Scott Galloway, the Optimistic Pessimist 19.03.2026 1t 1min

The Inside Economics team is joined by Scott Galloway, bestselling author and professor of marketing at NYU Stern, for a wide-ranging conversation spanning geopolitics, technology, and generational justice. The group touches on the escalating conflict in Iran before turning to the transformative — and disruptive — potential of artificial intelligence. The conversation takes a sharp turn as Scott examines what may be the defining economic story of our time: the systematic transfer of wealth and opportunity from the young to the old. Rising asset prices, unaffordable housing, and policy choices that favor incumbents have left many young adults locked out. Rising loneliness and the economic disenfranchisement of young men are among the consequences the group explores. Scott delivers his trademark mix of provocation and hope in a discussion as entertaining as it is sobering.

$100 Oil...and Counting 13.03.2026 50min

Mark and Marisa are joined once again by colleagues Chris Lafakis and Juan Pablo Fuentes to discuss the past week’s developments in the Middle East and whether the forecast has changed as a result. Matt Colyar joins to review the week’s release of inflation data, which show stickiness in inflation prior to the $40 jump in oil prices since the start of the year. After a review of weak reports on GDP, spending and confidence, Chris and Juan Pablo discuss how the jump in oil prices and the unprecedented supply shock will affect consumer spending and growth. The group posits their forecasts for how and when the conflict may end.

90,000 Lost Jobs and $90 Oil 06.03.2026 1t 9min

The Inside Economics team tackles the tough economic data and developments of the past week. There was nothing redeeming in the February jobs numbers, as the economy struggles to create jobs and unemployment edges higher. And this is before the fallout from the U.S. conflict with Iran hits the economy, which threatens to be considerable. The discussion ends on the question of how the fighting will be resolved, but there are no satisfying answers.

AI: Friend or Foe? 27.02.2026 1t 7min

Mark, Cris & Marisa reunite for a lively discussion about their predictions around AI’s impact on the economy over the next year or two. The team talks about their recently released webinar & white paper on the Macroeconomic Consequences of AI and answers several great listener questions in the process. Marisa and Cris try to talk Mark down off the AI-apocalypse ledge, as the once eternally optimistic Zandi has gone down a darker path recently.

Nerdfest with Bernstein and Parrott 20.02.2026 55min

Former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, Jared Bernstein, and housing maven, Jim Parrott, join Mark and Cris to drink from today’s fire hose of events, including the SCOTUS decision striking down President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs to the 4th quarter GDP numbers. The conversation turns to how well the economy is performing through the prism of AI, housing, and jobs. It’s a veritable econ nerdfest.

Pulse on Payrolls and Prices 13.02.2026 1t 12min

Together at last. In a rare joint performance, Dante and Matt join the Inside Economics crew to unpack January’s jobs and CPI reports. The brief federal government shutdown delayed economic data releases a few days, which made for a loaded slate this week. Dante shares his impression of January’s seemingly strong jobs report and then the team plays the stats game. A brief hiatus did not affect Marisa’s ability to dominate. Matt then goes through the first inflation data of 2026, and where it looks like inflation is headed in the coming months.