Odds on Open

Osad

• Ex-Two Sigma Quant: You Should Bet Against Bullish Analysts 02.07.2026 1t 7min

  Apply to Onyx’s trading event here: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/uni-studentsIn this episode of Odds on Open, former Two Sigma quant Omer Seider joins host Ethan to deconstruct how top-tier quantitative hedge funds systematically aggregate discretionary signals to isolate pure alpha. Seider reveals the inner workings of institutional alpha capture programs, detailing how premier multi-manager pods map the information propagation curve and exploit crowded consensus sentiment to capitalize on structural mispricings. The conversation provides a rigorous, finance-native breakdown of market microstructure, analyzing the statistical deltas between asset pricing and expert variant perceptions during high-surprise macro and corporate catalysts. For portfolio managers, quantitative researchers, and buy-side analysts, this discussion offers a masterclass in data validation, situational weighting, and the mechanics of separating idiosyncratic returns from passive factor premiums.The dialogue transitions into the future of market structure, exploring how the proliferation of generative AI and autonomous digital analysts will reshape liquidity and market efficiency across equities, commodities, and secondary private markets. Seider delivers a framework-first outlook on the scaling hedge fund ecosystem, explaining how large language models alter competitive advantage by shifting the alpha premium from commoditized data crunching to proprietary context curation. Crucially, he exposes the most persistent behavioral pitfalls observed across sophisticated institutional desks, specifically unpacking how the conservatism bias hampers optimal sizing during initial portfolio construction. Whether you are an asset allocator evaluating systematic strategies or an MFE student analyzing modern trading frameworks, this episode delivers actionable insights into balancing algorithmic risk management with human judgment.00:00 Intro00:01:14 Why systematic quant models require discretionary human judgment00:06:27 A message from Onyx00:07:06 How Two Sigma engineered an institutional alpha capture pipeline00:13:25 Why extreme consensus sentiment creates contrarian trading opportunities00:18:53 Aligning buy-side and sell-side incentives through informational edge00:25:36 How to extract alpha from the information propagation curve00:34:54 Navigating analyst mean reversion and situational weighting00:39:08 How generative AI and digital analysts reshape alpha capture00:48:13 Why a fragmented hedge fund ecosystem ensures market efficiency00:56:17 How modern LLMs accelerate data validation and market entropy01:03:47 Overcoming the conservatism bias in initial portfolio construction
• Ex-Citadel Quant on Trading the Most Asymmetric Market - Neel Somani 25.06.2026 1t

  Apply to Onyx’s Junior Tech Graduate Scheme here: https://verichain.io/apply/0aa1debe-ac6c-452f-9421-da6cbf4a3e8cIn this episode of Odds on Open, former Citadel quant researcher Neel Somani breaks down the opaque market structure and alpha generation mechanisms driving institutional power and natural gas trading. Neel explores the foundations of competitive edge within power markets, detailing how transmission line congestion, binding physical grid constraints, and localized supply-demand dynamics create highly asymmetric, high-skew assets. The conversation dives into the operational reality of central research desks within multi-manager commodity platforms, focusing on how quants model weather variance, fuel costs, and thermal generation outages to inform relative-value basis trades. Neel also provides a masterclass on institutional risk management and portfolio construction during extreme tail-risk events, using the 2021 Texas freeze to illustrate how top PMs navigate position sizing and delta-neutral execution when illiquid power grids face catastrophic supply shocks.Shifting from liquid macro markets to the frontier of technology, Neel analyzes the massive infrastructure constraints and power demand scaling driven by AI data centers, outlining the site selection economics and temporary generation plays dictating the space. He evaluates the structural career opportunity cost of entering quantitative finance today relative to the AI paradigm shift, challenging junior talent and MFE students to build defensible technical moats in hardware and GPU kernel optimization. Finally, the discussion delivers a sharp variant view on venture capital valuation models, predicting a severe compressed pricing event for digital assets and software companies as low-switching-cost agentic architectures fundamentally disrupt traditional growth economics, customer retention metrics, and customer acquisition costs (CAC).00:00 Intro00:01:12 Quant researcher execution models within multi-manager hedge funds00:06:17 A message from ONYX00:07:35 How transmission line congestion drives alpha in power markets00:13:24 Capital intensity and managing risk profiles of high-skew assets00:19:19 Why commodity desks prefer domestic power over geopolitical oil risk00:22:55 Portfolio construction and risk mitigation during tail-risk freeze events00:31:36 Capitalizing on the physical infrastructure constraints of AI data centers00:36:25 How agentic architecture redefines software engineering and technical moats00:43:04 Quant career opportunity cost relative to the AI paradigm shift00:56:15 Variant views on venture multiples and agentic customer acquisition economics
• LTCM Co-founder Victor Hagani: “Taking Risk Is Always a Negative.” 20.06.2026 1t 11min

  Apply to Onyx’s Junior Tech Graduate Scheme here: https://verichain.io/apply/0aa1debe-ac6c-452f-9421-da6cbf4a3e8cIn this episode of Odds on Open, we sit down with Victor Haghani, co-founder of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) and founder of Elm Wealth, to dissect why institutional alpha frequently breaks down during the position sizing phase. While standard market commentary focuses heavily on asset selection, Haghani establishes that optimizing your risk-adjusted return is an independent, non-zero-sum discipline that dictates long-term survival. We explore the structural friction between expected value and compound return, the misapplication of the Kelly criterion by sophisticated Wall Street portfolio managers, and how treating variance as an internal financial fee reshapes quantitative portfolio construction and risk management.The discussion shifts to edge verification through Haghani’s famous "Crystal Ball" experiment, analyzing how elite macro traders and advanced LLMs process information asymmetry against historical market regimes. Designed for hedge fund analysts, quants, allocators, and advanced finance students, this section provides a rigorous framework for isolating compensated systematic risk from uncompensated idiosyncratic risk. We close with an actionable breakdown of how practitioners should mathematically model and discount their own human capital, offering a definitive blueprint for maximizing lifetime smooth capital accumulation without succumbing to high-volatility ruin.00:00 Intro01:27 LTCM: Why sizing matters more than selection03:00 Expected value vs. risk-adjusted value in portfolios05:15 Why sophisticated investors struggle with sizing bets08:20 The zero-sum reality of beating the market09:30 A message from Onyx10:35 Why most firms lack a risk-adjusted return rubric12:55 Risk as an internal "fee" in portfolio construction16:30 The math of sizing concentrated stock positions20:50 The hidden danger of high-volatility wealth22:20 "How to become a billionaire" is the wrong question27:25 Testing the "Crystal Ball" hypothesis with Wall Street Journal data34:55 How LLMs perform at macro trading games40:35 Can individual investors generate alpha sustainably?47:40 Solving for optimal sizing at Elm Wealth50:25 Risk limits for young investors and human capital57:55 How to estimate the value of your human capital1:02:45 Why changing minds on investing is nearly impossible1:07:35 The most critical factor for a stable wealth curve
• Quant Hedge Fund Partner: Raising Capital Is Harder Than Generating Returns 04.06.2026 1t 15min

  Apply to Onyx’s Junior Tech Graduate Scheme here: https://verichain.io/apply/0aa1debe-ac6c-452f-9421-da6cbf4a3e8cDeWayne Louis (Versor Investments) returns to break down the part of the business almost no one explains: not generating returns, but raising the capital to scale them. After Versor pulled in half a billion dollars for an event-driven strategy with just two and a half years of track record, DeWayne walks through exactly how allocations from multi-managers and managed-account platforms actually get done — and why he argues raising capital is harder than making money.We get into the screening hurdles multi-strats apply (Sharpe thresholds, team, factor orthogonality), how to pitch a secretive pod without knowing its book, and the systematic, data-driven machine Versa built to quantify merger arb across 26 years of catalyst events. Then the conversation turns to the capital-raising playbook itself: external vs internal allocations, fee structures, fund-of-funds vs pods, and why branding and storytelling — not buzzwords like "uncorrelated," "quantamental," or "AI" — are what move an allocator from apathy to conviction.A sharp, tactical episode for emerging and mid-sized managers, allocators, and anyone trying to understand how capital really flows through the multi-manager ecosystem.00:00 Intro01:22 Sourcing capital from multi-strategy managed accounts06:45 Pitching alpha relative to common hedge fund factor exposures09:21 A message from Onyx09:55 Designing systematic models for fundamental event-driven catalysts14:25 The multi-manager due diligence and verification process20:14 Structural mechanics of internal versus external balance sheet allocations28:28 Portfolio transparency differences: Multi-managers versus fund of funds31:55 Why institutional branding is harder than generating returns37:01 Strategic branding mistakes made by emerging fund managers46:46 Applying systematic data frameworks to the capital raising process53:33 Quantifying risk profiles to match multi-manager attributes58:03 Why separately managed accounts dominate institutional allocations01:06:12 Operational skill sets that build robust asset management firms01:12:23 Retaining institutional capital through transparent variance communication
• Ex-WorldQuant Head of Data Strategy: Quants “Don’t Care About the Stock Market” 28.05.2026 1t 4min

  In this episode of Odds on Open, we deconstruct the evolution of alternative data and alpha generation with Matt Ober, former Head of Data Strategy at WorldQuant and Chief Data Scientist at Third Point. We dive deep into the institutional framework required to scale systematic trading strategies, the cultural friction of implementing quantamental processes within long-short equity pods, and the specific mechanisms used by portfolio managers to extract a variant view from massive datasets. From the factory-floor automation of PhD-led quant shops to the high-stakes risk management of activist fundamental funds, Matt reveals how market microstructure and data-driven edge define success in liquid markets.Explore the shift toward the "degenerate economy" and the rising institutional utility of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket for hedging structured KPIs. We analyze the future of decision intelligence through the lens of LLMs and MCPs (Model Context Protocol), discussing how traders, analysts, and allocators can maintain differentiation in a regime of rapid alpha erosion. Whether you are optimizing portfolio construction, refining factor exposure, or seeking a competitive advantage in venture capital, this conversation provides a masterclass in leveraging social networks and information symmetry to secure uncorrelated returns.00:00 Intro01:18 The WorldQuant thesis: Mining alternative data for systematic alpha05:06 Integrating finance expertise into PhD-heavy quant factory pipelines07:00 Scaling the quant factory: Automation and the researcher pipeline09:46 Monitoring dataset performance: Risk controls and alpha decay11:07 A message from ONYX16:38 Quantamental shifts: Transitioning data strategy to fundamental funds22:29 Institutionalizing "Old Guard" firms via top-down data buy-in26:38 Networking for quants: Comparing Tulchinsky and Loeb’s sources of edge32:44 The Degenerate Economy: Prediction markets and the volatility of attention39:42 Non-consensus career bets: Why selling beta is a stickier strategy45:01 Sourcing venture alpha: Identifying exceptional founders and GTM wedges52:30 Institutionalizing prediction markets via structured KPI hedging01:00:39 How MCPs and LLMs democratize decision intelligence01:03:08 The single source of edge: Leveraging social network information
• The Secret to Uncorrelated Alpha in Crypto - Leigh Drogen on Starkiller Capital’s Sharpe Ratio of 4 24.05.2026 1t 9min

  Apply to Onyx’s Junior Tech Graduate Scheme here: https://verichain.io/apply/0aa1debe-ac6c-452f-9421-da6cbf4a3e8cLeigh Drogen, CIO of Starkiller Capital, joins the podcast to dissect the mechanics of a market neutral DeFi strategy currently operating at a 4 Sharpe ratio. We move past surface-level crypto narratives to analyze the quantitative scoring of protocol risk, code provenance, and the identification of incentivized spreads in carry trades. Drogen outlines a rigorous framework for position sizing based on a 1% max-loss rule and explains how Starkiller modulates risk across market regimes to extract uncorrelated alpha while avoiding the pitfalls of unsustainable yield and "fuckery risk" in liquid digital asset markets.The discussion shifts to the persistent alpha of cross-sectional momentum and why Starkiller views block space as a commoditized asset, drawing parallels to the fiber optic glut of the late 90s. From the market structure of token unlock schedules to the evolution of prediction markets like Estimize and Polymarket, we explore the intersection of regulatory arbitrage and table selection. This episode provides institutional-grade insights into portfolio construction, trend following, and the risk management frameworks required to navigate the liquidity and volatility of the modern crypto regime.00:00 Intro01:09 Mechanics of a 4 Sharpe market neutral DeFi strategy03:24 Quantifying protocol risk and code provenance06:40 Case study: Exploiting incentivized spreads in carry trades09:51 A message from ONYX10:53 Three primary sources of alpha in liquid crypto markets14:28 Capacity constraints and institutional yield compression18:54 Position sizing via the 1% max loss rule21:38 Pro-cyclical returns and the risk modulation framework26:44 Compounding capital through trend following and cross-sectional momentum33:35 Why momentum is the only persistent behavioral alpha38:52 Why block space is worthless: The fiber optic analogy42:30 Mitigating "fuckery risk" and vampire attacks in shorts48:39 Extracting alpha from token unlock schedules and market structure51:20 Lessons from building Estimize and the SEC/ForceRank fight55:00 The Polymarket origin story: Arbitraging regulatory hurdles01:01:45 Career risk premia and the value of "eating shit"01:05:34 Table selection: Positioning your career on the right macro curve
• “Market Crashes Are Good for My Strategy” - One-Man Hedge Fund PM George Livadas 14.05.2026 1t 7min

  Apply here: https://onyxcapitalgroup.com/uni-studentsGeorge Livadas, Portfolio Manager and founder of Peregrine Capital, joins the show to break down the mechanics of running a concentrated, defensive long/short strategy as a solo PM. We explore how George generates alpha by systematically avoiding "hedge fund hotel" crowding, focusing instead on microstructure edges within niche sectors like non-bank financials and packaging to maintain a variant view. George details his portfolio construction framework—balancing core quality compounders with tactical value—and explains the math behind delivering equity-like returns while maintaining a beta-adjusted net exposure of approximately 35%.The conversation shifts to the evolving market regime, specifically how the dominance of multi-manager pods has created liquidity opportunities for patient, independent traders to exploit short-term data noise. George shares his technical survival guide for short selling, from managing volatility in "fraud and fad" names to recalibrating his process following the 2021 SPAC boom. We conclude with a deep dive into macro risk management, discussing how to insulate a portfolio against geopolitical tail risks and the psychological discipline required to develop a professional PM skill set without a traditional institutional pedigree.How do you stay independent in a market dominated by pods?00:00 Intro01:18 Selection criteria and sizing for defensive longs06:04 Sponsor break: Onyx Capital Group anniversary event06:42 Portfolio construction: Balancing quality and value factors09:13 How the SPAC boom changed short-side portfolio construction13:42 Why nimbleness and independent thinking generate alpha20:06 Capitalizing on the short-termism of multi-manager pods28:18 Managing macro tail risks without being wrong-footed38:26 Why defensive strategies offer an "inverse pod" return stream42:04 How to develop a professional PM skill set54:37 Circle of competence: Identifying disastrous longs and shorts
• “If it is easy and obvious, there is no edge in it” - TD Quant Matt Schrager 07.05.2026 1t 15min

  In this episode of Odds on Open, TD Quant Matt Schrager discusses the microstructure of municipal bond market making and the technical challenges of extracting alpha from illiquid fixed income instruments. We analyze the shift from low-latency HFT frameworks to the probabilistic modeling and statistical pricing required for securities with fragmented liquidity. Matt details the mechanics of systematic inventory management, risk-adjusted P&L optimization, and the cultural integration of elite proprietary trading teams within institutional balance sheets.Schrager outlines a variant view on finding edge in "ugly," inefficient markets, focusing on the structural opacity of private credit and the electronification of commodities. The discussion covers the evolution of market efficiency, the role of LLMs in credit due diligence, and recruiting strategies for resilient quantitative talent. This episode provides actionable insights for hedge fund analysts, quants, and PMs on the relentless process required to maintain a competitive advantage in evolving market regimes.00:00 Intro00:01:29 Announcing OOO's Newest Sponsor00:02:20 Liquidity and latency differentials in the municipal bond market00:06:37 Probabilistic modeling and statistical pricing for low-frequency instruments00:10:50 Adapting HFT simulation and backtesting to illiquid fixed income00:20:33 Systematic inventory management and risk-adjusted P&L optimization00:27:36 Transitioning proprietary trading culture into a global bank infrastructure00:34:10 Scaling electronic market making into commodities and investment-grade credit00:41:24 Identifying edge in gnarly and inefficient corners of the market00:45:23 Structural opacity and the liquidity evolution in private credit00:56:21 Why elite trading organizations prioritize relentless process over magic01:04:16 Recruiting for resilience and the velocity of fundamental improvement01:11:02 How AI-native skillsets redefine talent in liquid market regimes
• Ex-Tudor Quant PM: “There Hasn't Been a New Idea in Trading for 15 Years” 30.04.2026 1t 15min

  In this episode of Odds on Open, we go deep into the mechanics of edge, credibility, and the structural evolution of the hedge fund industry. Host Ethan sits down with Tom, a veteran Quant PM formerly of Tudor Investment Corp and Moore Capital, to deconstruct what separates the top-tier "pod shops" from the bottom 40% of funds that fail to preserve capital.Tom challenges the common perception of market randomness, arguing instead for a deterministic view of market structure where alpha is captured by modeling participant incentives rather than just price action. We discuss the "Unified Field Theory of Finance," the operational reality of running a billion-dollar book, and why the most dangerous trap for a PM is the "gamma trap"—trading steady returns for catastrophic tail risk.00:00 Intro01:18 Building institutional credibility for early-stage managers03:01 The Pareto distribution of hedge fund returns04:25 Applying the Unified Field Theory of Finance to fair value08:14 Trading against human incentives in a deterministic market13:54 Why allocators don’t steal alpha from prospective PMs18:26 Organizational advantages and risk management in pod shops25:16 Evaluating career edge in quantitative finance for 202630:48 Paul Tudor Jones and the art of game selection33:42 Analyzing the economic viability of starting a new fund35:16 Identifying common retail pitfalls: Mean reversion and arbitrage38:55 Why there hasn't been a new trading idea in 15 years43:22 Case study: Building NLP systems and managing strategy decay50:33 Managing tail risk: Physics vs. deterministic financial distributions55:33 Identifying the gamma trap in short-volatility strategies59:10 Career pathing for PMs after a fund blow-up1:07:53 SBF and FTX: Credibility vs. the "Founder-Genius" archetype1:13:44 Establishing proof-of-concept through audited multi-year returns
• “Concentrated Strategies Will Do Extremely Well” - Sean Emory on Outperforming the Index 23.04.2026 1t 9min

  Sean Emory of Avery discusses the evolution of edge in liquid markets, specifically how to leverage alternative data—from App Store analytics to digital exhaust—to identify fundamental inflection points before they are reflected in the price. We dive deep into Sean’s underwriting process, exploring how institutional investors can use granular data sets to track thesis confirmation and identify a margin of safety in real-time. This conversation provides a technical breakdown of how to separate signal from noise in a market regime increasingly dominated by ultra-short-term microstructure and passive flows.Sean also breaks down his approach to portfolio construction, comparing the risk-return profiles of highly concentrated strategies versus diversified books. He explains why his firm prioritizes "the Six Ms" over standard volatility metrics to mitigate the risk of permanent capital impairment, offering a variant view on traditional risk management. The discussion concludes with the operational realities of the active ETF landscape, the impact of generative AI on market efficiency, and the psychological discipline required to maintain alpha when storytelling and euphoria distort traditional valuation frameworks.
• “It’s the Dumbest Market in the World” - Quant Trader Scott Phillips on Edge in Crypto 16.04.2026 1t 35min

  In this episode of Odds on Open, quant trader Scott Phillips joins the pod to break down why crypto remains "the dumbest market in the world" and a goldmine for systematic edge. We dive deep into table selection and why the lack of institutional competition allows for Sharpe ratios exceeding 2.0 through basic trend following and momentum strategies. Phillips explains the mechanics of market inefficiencies, from the reflexivity of on-chain liquidity to the alpha found in tracking price-insensitive buyers and VC exit liquidity. For hedge fund analysts and quants, this is a masterclass in identifying liquid market anomalies that TradFi has long since arbitraged away.The conversation shifts to the technicalities of portfolio construction and risk management within the "dark forest" of DeFi. Scott details his transition from click trading to launching Hyper Trend, a tokenized on-chain hedge fund executing mid-frequency crypto strategies on Hyperliquid. We explore the microstructure of funding rates, the carry trade, and how to model counterparty risk when dealing with exchange-specific incentives and North Korean state actors. Whether you are a PM focused on factor analysis or a trader looking to exploit mean reversion in altcoins, this episode provides a raw, credibility-forward look at capturing beta-neutral returns in the world’s most volatile regime.00:43 Table selection and the math of competitive alpha06:21 Why basic trend following yields outsized Sharpe in crypto08:49 Why market inefficiency persists despite institutional inflows14:58 Price insensitive buyers: Cults, VCs, and North Korean hackers17:17 Factor analysis and the size-decay effect in shitcoins25:40 The structural edge in mid-frequency crypto strategies32:43 Tokenized DeFi vaults and on-chain hedge fund governance40:43 Designing a robust portfolio: Equal weighting vs. MVO44:21 Sourcing alpha from ghost chains and VC exit liquidity49:58 Exploiting market maker contracts and post-listing drift53:55 Operational alpha: Managing margin and manipulated funding rates01:01:13 Shifting from quant to CEO: Identity fluidity and mastery01:11:28 How to bridge the mentorship gap with elite traders01:22:38 Building network triads: The secret to compounding social capital01:29:23 Why 10x goals require total identity transformation
• Now Is the Best Time to Become a Junior Analyst - Ex-Citadel and D. E. Shaw PM Brett Caughran 09.04.2026 1t 1min

  Get 10% off on Fundamental Edge: https://www.fundamentedge.com/odds-on-open-podcastIn this episode of Odds on Open, Ethan Kho sits down with Brett Caughran, founder of Fundamental Edge and a former Portfolio Manager at elite Tiger Cub and Multi-Manager (MM) firms.As generative AI and agentic workflows commoditize the "desktop research" layer of investing, the bar for generating idiosyncratic alpha has never been higher. Brett breaks down the specific frameworks—including ETIC (Everything There Is To Know) and the Focus 5—that top-tier pods use to identify mispriced securities and isolate key drivers before they are priced in by the market.We dive deep into the market microstructure shifts caused by the rise of indexers and factor-based quants, explaining why increased volatility is a gift for fundamental investors with the stomach for Bayesian updating. Brett also provides a roadmap for the "New Junior Analyst," shifting the focus from manual model-cranking to high-leverage primary research and AI orchestration.00:00 Intro01:29 Frameworks for developing a differentiated variant perception05:16 Financial drivers vs. narrative cycles: The Focus 5 framework08:29 Analyzing the stock vs. business: Bayesian updating in public markets12:52 AI as an intellectual power tool vs. consensus "alpha slop"17:21 Accelerating the hunch-to-hypothesis pipeline with AI sniff tests21:52 The evolution of junior analysts: From data entry to primary research28:46 Why market microstructure and behavioral alpha prevent index efficiency34:48 New meta-skills: Debugging models and the expectations gap muscle38:44 Training junior analysts: Earning the right to use power tools44:34 High-value workflows: CEO credibility analysis and guidance tracking48:28 LLMs as orchestration tools for human primary research54:55 Teachable scientific process vs. revealed investment judgment57:54 Common threads across Multi-Managers, Single Managers, and Tiger Cubs59:49 Curiosity as a meta-skill and the art of system thinking
• "Positions Can Be LESS Risky at Higher Prices" - Derek Pilecki on Finding Edge in Financials 02.04.2026 55min

  In this episode of Odds on Open, Ethan Kho sits down with Derek Pilecki, founder of Gator Capital Management, to deconstruct his 20%+ annualized track record in the financial sector. While many generalist PMs view financials as a "sleepy backwater" or overly complex, Derek explains how he extracts alpha from regional banks, brokerages, and insurance companies by identifying fundamental business changes before they are reflected in the tape.The conversation moves from the microstructure of bank underwriting in a post-Dodd-Frank regime to the practicalities of portfolio construction, including why Derek has expanded his concentration from 25 to 40 names and his strict discipline against "averaging down" on losers. We also dive into the private credit narrative, the actual risk of systemic leverage in non-bank financials, and how generative AI is shifting the valuation multiples of moaty info-service businesses like Morningstar and FactSet.00:00 Intro01:06 Derek's +21% annualized return track record02:50 Fundamental business change vs market noise in Robinhood05:25 Portfolio construction: Concentration limits and adding to winners09:09 Sourcing alpha and identifying three-year doubles in financials12:44 Developing edge through repetition and management team cycles14:16 Why the post-GFC regime fundamentally changed bank underwriting17:07 Assessing tail risk and leverage in the private credit market21:23 AI-driven market dispersion and identifying moaty businesses24:11 Why shareholder base turnover matters for timing broken charts25:57 AI disruption vs trust-based moats in financial services29:37 Integrating AI into fundamental research and SEC filing analysis32:31 Scaling regional bank positions and managing liquidity constraints35:39 Risk management: Permanent capital loss vs mark-to-market volatility37:12 Capacity constraints: Optimizing for returns over AUM scale44:14 Behavioral edge and avoiding the "degree of difficulty" trap50:39 Career risk and the reality of active money management54:18 Breaking into the industry via public stock write-ups
• How Billionaire Hedge Fund Managers Are Using Generative AI to Invest 27.03.2026 1t 15min

  In this episode of Odds on Open, we analyze the technical architecture of the data science layer within fundamental hedge funds. Guest Matei Zatreanu, founder of System2, discusses the tension between generative AI and the search for outlier-driven alpha. We move beyond the hype of LLMs to discuss the practicalities of expert network automation, the causal mapping of second-order macro effects, and why the most successful PMs treat their investment process as a craft rather than a business operation. The conversation also explores the structural shift from single-manager funds to multi-manager platforms and the specific incentive alignment strategies used to retain quant talent in high-stakes environments.(00:00:00) Intro(00:00:53) Talent constraints and outlier detection in the data science layer(00:05:38) LLM customization: Differentiated alpha vs. the consensus echo chamber(00:10:18) Automating the mosaic: AI interview agents and qualitative data synthesis(00:20:33) Mapping causal relationships and second-order macro effects via graphs(00:26:33) Curiosity as the ultimate constraint for information-rich investors(00:31:43) Multi-manager platforms vs. the rise of independent single managers(00:37:58) Solving incentive alignment and analyst retention via internal fund-of-funds(00:44:03) Managing negative network effects and custom research one-offs(00:48:33) Whale hunting: High-ticket pricing and the billionaire value mindset(00:54:58) Zero-to-one incubation: Leveraging unique market access for business spin-outs(00:59:08) Romanian roots to billionaire circles: Mentorship and aiming high(01:07:48) PM as "Doctor": Why founders prioritize craft over business operations
• How the World’s Largest Oil Derivatives Trading Firm Is Navigating the Iran War 19.03.2026 1t 9min

  This episode was filmed on Thursday, March 12, 2026.Greg Newman, founder and CEO of Onyx Capital Group and the largest liquidity provider in oil derivatives markets, on what it actually looks like to run a market-making book when liquidity breaks down entirely. What most participants misunderstand about oil vol is that the outright price — Brent, WTI — is a proxy, not the market; the real information lives in time spreads, regional diffs, and niche contracts that only a handful of firms have visibility into. Why fair value discovery in a dislocated market requires abandoning automation, reverting to manual process, and using physical market participant behavior — refiners, producers, airlines — as a real-time signal rather than a lagged one.Greg co-founded Onyx Capital Group in 2016 after a decade trading crude and refined products across increasingly niche oil derivatives contracts. Onyx built its position by stepping into the vacuum left by banks exiting commodities post-Volcker, becoming the dominant liquidity provider across European, Middle Eastern, and Asian oil markets with an estimated 20–50% market share in several key contracts. The firm now operates market-making desks across London, New York, Dubai, and Singapore, and has expanded into data services, a single-dealer platform, retail brokerage, and physical trade finance — building a vertically integrated oil markets infrastructure business from a pure prop-trading foundation.In this episode we cover:•⁠ ⁠Why trading oil outrights during the dislocation was a losing game — and where the real edge was•⁠ ⁠Fair value discovery on Sunday night: how Onyx priced contracts when every historical model broke•⁠ ⁠Physical market reflexivity: how refiners, producers, and airlines all become forced actors at key price levels•⁠ ⁠Geopolitical signal extraction: options open interest and off-hours order flow as an information edge over Polymarket•⁠ ⁠Regime-break risk: why government intervention in exchange mechanisms is the tail risk that keeps Greg up at night•⁠ ⁠Countercyclical talent investment and why Onyx's worst years built its best crisis infrastructure•⁠ ⁠From prop shop to platform: data, single-dealer, retail brokerage, and credit as extensions of liquidity edge•⁠ ⁠Why Onyx is building toward a hedge fund — and why track record discipline is holding them backTimestamps:00:00 Intro 00:48 Oil market volatility: making sense of the dislocation 04:05 Outright vs. spread positioning: where the real edge was 05:10 How Onyx manages process when liquidity breaks down 10:18 Pricing fair value on Sunday night with no precedent 16:48 Physical market participants and the reflexivity of hedging behavior 20:22 Prediction markets as an information signal — and why Onyx stopped using them 25:26 Options flow as the real tell for informed geopolitical positioning 28:17 What it feels like running a global market-making book through a crisis 33:05 Regime-break risk: when exchange mechanisms themselves fail 36:25 Countercyclical investment in talent and infrastructure 42:20 From prop shop to liquidity infrastructure: building a durable valuation 48:50 Why Onyx is building a hedge fund — and what's holding them back 57:50 Media, brand, and market disruption as compounding assets 01:05:47 The most surprising thing after 14 years of building Onyx
• Annie Duke on Thinking in Bets - And Why Winners Can Be Wrong 12.03.2026 1t 7min

  Legendary poker champion, decision scientist, and author of "Thinking in Bets," Annie Duke deconstructs the mechanics of decision-making under uncertainty, shifting the focus from high-variance outcomes to the rigor of positive expectancy and robust process. Leveraging her background in professional poker and cognitive psychology, Duke explores how loss aversion and resulting—the cognitive trap of equating outcome quality with decision quality—can degrade a trader's edge and lead to suboptimal portfolio construction. The conversation moves beyond theory into the practical application of base rates, reference classes, and mental time travel to combat temporal discounting, providing a masterclass for quants, PMs, and analysts on how to refine their probabilistic worldview and neutralize the noise of short-term volatility.00:00 Intro01:12 Defining bets as resource allocation under uncertainty04:52 Positive expectancy vs. outcome-based evaluation06:11 Resulting: Why outcomes are not proxies for decision quality15:19 Calculating expected value in high-variance career paths18:55 Moving from implicit intuition to explicit decision modeling24:27 Using base rates and reference classes for startups30:26 Psychological traits of elite risk takers and traders31:33 How prospect theory and loss aversion distort risk45:12 Deconstructing gut feel and the role of intuition49:36 Evaluating optionality and impact in fast-moving environments57:13 Mental time travel: Tools for managing temporal discounting01:01:31 Quantifying the intersection of luck and hard work01:04:43 Internalizing a probabilistic worldview for long-term edge
• Meet the 25-Year-Old Running a Multi-Manager Hedge Fund 05.03.2026 1t 11min

  Zachary A. Levitt joins the pod to break down the architecture of a capacity-constrained multi-manager platform designed to harvest high alpha loads in niche, idiosyncratic markets. We dive deep into portfolio construction beyond the "Big Four" pod model, focusing on inverse-volatility weighting, discretionary risk overlays during regime shifts, and the mechanics of screening for relative value arbitrage strategies with minimal factor exposure. Zach explains his transition from a data-driven biotech alpha capture book to running a center book, detailing how he identifies micro-regime persistence and manages the microstructure of a lean, performance-aligned firm. This conversation is a masterclass for allocators and quants on building a non-correlated return stream by targeting the liquidity gaps and specialized incentives that larger, multi-billion dollar funds are forced to ignore.00:00 Intro01:02 The primary constraint for a young multi-manager03:13 Screening for niche strategies and consistent track records06:03 Maximizing idiosyncratic P&L through relative value arbitrage08:19 Tactical sizing and capturing micro-regime persistence12:43 Balancing inverse-vol weighting with discretionary risk overlays15:41 Case study: Rebalancing small-cap L/S during market corrections17:37 Distilling signal from noise in multi-manager portfolio oversight22:02 Coachability and removing emotion from the PM feedback loop25:52 Alpha capture in biotech via options market data30:20 Scaling the boutique multi-manager business model34:02 Disrupting the "Big Four" pods with capacity-constrained strategies42:21 Unit economics of a lean, performance-driven platform53:09 LP management and optimizing the business development funnel1:00:19 Moving from portfolio management to operational process efficiency1:05:10 Future of the industry: Consolidation vs. niche boutiques1:08:53 Roadmap for launching a niche multi-manager fund
• Alpha Comes From a Differentiated View - Ex-Point72 Prop Research Head Kirk McKeown on Edge in 2026 26.02.2026 1t 27min

  Check out Carbon Arc here: https://www.carbonarc.co/Kirk McKeown, founder and CEO of Carbon Arc and former senior investor-facing operator across Glenview and Point72, on how alpha migrates as market structure, tooling, and competition evolve. What most investors misunderstand about “edge” is that it is rarely static and often lives in process design, information capture, and interpretation of small narrative inflections. Why hit-rate systems, decision trees, and data structure matter now as models commoditize and the marginal advantage shifts toward differentiated inputs and synthesis.Kirk started his career at Tudor Investments during the late-1990s cycle, then worked at Glenview Capital under Larry Robbins where he built and led primary research capabilities supporting a concentrated, long-horizon portfolio process. He later spent 8.5 years at Point72 supporting a multi-manager environment optimized around catalyst-driven, variant-view investing, high at-bat volume, and repeatable organizational process. Across these seats, he worked directly with investment teams on improving idea generation, hit-rate, and conviction through compliant information collection, supply chain and value chain work, and rigorous feedback loops.In this episode we cover:- Why alpha “moves” over time and how competitive advantage migrates with market structure and tooling- Hit-rate vs slugging frameworks across concentrated portfolios and multi-manager platforms- A research function’s only mandate: lift idea flow, hit-rate, or conviction without contaminating decision-making- Building edge via compounding domain knowledge, field research, and leading indicators before consensus data prints- “Main Street becomes Wall Street”: model-driven decisioning, data decimalization, and pricing data like a utility- Inventory as the core causal variable behind boom-bust cycles in fundamentals and supply chains- Factor frameworks as a scaling mechanism for research: market structure, business model, and decision-tree priorsTimestamps:(00:00) Intro(04:47) Tutor vs Glenview vs Point72: how edge differs(12:29) How to build “lift” for PMs: at-bats, hit-rate, sizing(18:44) Building research edge: outwork, read, fieldwork(27:16) Personal moat in 2026: analogs, history, decision trees(40:08) “Main Street becomes Wall Street”: what that actually means(44:30) Carbon Arc thesis: “decimalization” of data market structure(46:43) Why the edge migrates to data plus domain context(51:00) How to win in commoditized research: sample size beats anecdotes(01:03:26) Factorizing everything: themes, market structure, business models(01:08:37) Pruning decision trees: signals, scale points, inventory dynamics(01:14:18) Contrarian 2026 take: hedge funds launching enterprise AI labs(01:23:32) Final question: one habit to build career alphaFollow Kirk McKeown:LinkedIn – https://www.linkedin.com/in/kirk-mckeown-400607214/
• What Druckenmiller Style Investing Gets Wrong - Alfonso Pecatiello on Edge in Macro Trading 19.02.2026 1t 6min

  My Substack: https://ethankho.substack.com/Alfonso Pecatiello — known as "Alf" and founder of The Macro Compass and founder of Palinuro Capital, a macro hedge fund— joins Ethan Kho to break down the frameworks behind global macro trading, real economy money creation, and what it truly takes to build a macro hedge fund from the ground up.Alfonso Pecatiello spent years as a senior portfolio manager at ING overseeing a multi-billion dollar fixed income portfolio before founding Palinuro Capital. In this episode, Alf shares the macro investing edge that drives his process: why central bank QE and bank reserves are largely irrelevant to real economic outcomes, how commercial bank lending and government fiscal deficits are the true engines of money creation, and why tracking the second derivative of real economy money printing is one of the most powerful signals in global macro trading today.But Alfonso Pecatiello doesn't stop at markets. The Macro Compass founder opens up about the brutal reality of launching a macro hedge fund with no seed money, no GP stake deal, and an 80% industry failure rate. He shares the moment Palinuro Capital nearly didn't survive — and the risk management mindset that carried him through.This episode covers global macro trading strategy, hedge fund position sizing, portfolio diversification, tail risk management, factor-neutral mandates, and the real process behind founding a hedge fund from scratch.If you're interested in macro investing, hedge fund careers, global macro strategy, money creation, central bank policy, or fund management — this is essential listening.
• “I think of everything as a bet” - Ex-SIG Quant Trader Andrew Courtney 12.02.2026 56min

  Former Susquehanna International Group (SIG) Head Trader Andrew Courtney breaks down the reality of being a quant trader and market maker at one of the world's elite proprietary trading firms. He reveals what trading floors actually look like—multiple monitors covered with flashing numbers, signals, and price movements that traders analyze all day with zero lunch breaks and constant attention on market microstructure. Andrew explains how SIG's legendary poker training culture shapes traders' ability to think probabilistically, make decisions under uncertainty, and justify every bet both quantitatively and qualitatively. He shares candid insights about who should (and shouldn't) pursue trading careers, the transition from floor trading to electronic markets, and how the tight-knit network at prop trading firms differs dramatically from consulting or investment banking paths.Andrew now runs Kalshinomics, a prediction markets analytics tool, and writes The Whirligig Bear on Substack where he analyzes opportunities in Kalshi, Polymarket, and emerging prediction market platforms. He goes deep on finding edge in prediction markets—from identifying inefficient markets with liquidity incentives to using ChatGPT and AI tools for handicapping obscure Grammy categories. Andrew explains market efficiency frameworks, how to assess who you're trading against, and why some markets (like low-volume Grammy categories) offer better opportunities than hyped meme markets. He also tackles the casino-ification of America debate, insider trading concerns in prediction markets, and whether these platforms are a net good or bad for society.We also talk about...The real day-to-day of quant trading and market making at SIG: staring at screens all day, monitoring signals, and staying alert for when markets go off the railsWhy SIG's poker training program—playing for hours daily, turning over cards after every hand, and defending each decision quantitatively—builds world-class tradersHow thinking in bets becomes second nature and why Andrew now frames every decision (like private school vs public school) as an expected value calculationThe cultural differences between floor trading (loud voices, physical presence in the pit) versus upstairs electronic trading (surrounded by sharp peers and data)Why prop trading careers build narrow, dense networks compared to consulting or investment banking, and what that means for long-term career optionalityFinding edge in prediction markets: liquidity incentives, identifying who you're trading against, and why some markets are wildly inefficientTrading strategy and bet sizing: when to use Kelly criterion, how to scale into positions, and Bayesian updating based on how the market reacts to your tradesThe insider trading debate in prediction markets and why Andrew thinks it's corrosive to incentives, trust, and long-term market qualityRisk transfer opportunities: using prediction markets for insurance-like hedging (Florida hurricane risk, California earthquake exposure) rather than pure speculationWhether prediction markets are good for society: the value of probabilistic news context versus the risk of casino-ification and degenerate gamblingCareer advice for aspiring traders: evaluating if you can handle constant screen time, limited networks, and high-variance outcomesHow to apply expected value thinking to everyday life: insurance decisions, risk tolerance, and when not to over-optimize (don't EV calculate marriage)The future of prediction markets: institutional adoption, regulatory uncertainty, and whether amateurs can still compete before professionals crowd out edgeWhy Kalshinomics focuses on analytics and custom interfaces for serious traders rather than trying to be the "Bloomberg Terminal" of prediction marketsLessons from SIG on decision-making, probability, and building systems that extract signal from noise in high-frequency, high-stakes environments