The Dividend Cafe

Osad

• 
  Wednesday - August 19, 2026 19.08.2026 7min

  Brian Szytel reviews a rotation-heavy market day with the Dow up 120 points, the S&P 500 up about 0.25%, and the Nasdaq slightly higher, as equal-weight outperformed cap-weighted amid big moves in pharma and some late earnings from tech/AI. Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year down 7 bps to about 4.64%, following remarks from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent about shifting issuance toward the short end and using it to buy back some long-end debt; while the $20B buyback is small versus the $5T in 20–30 year Treasuries, the signal suggests an effort to lower long-term rates, potentially at odds with a Fed under Warsh aiming to let markets tighten or loosen. He also explains Japan’s debt dynamics: while gross debt/GDP is ~240%, netting BOJ holdings and government assets brings it closer to ~80%, though higher JGB rates could raise debt-service costs and pressure the yen and BOJ policy. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 00:21 Market Close Recap 00:56 Treasury Buyback Shock 01:58 Fed Versus Treasury 03:46 Japan Debt Question 04:07 Net Debt Breakdown 05:06 Rates Yen and BOJ 06:11 Wrap Up and Disclosures Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
• 
  Tuesday - August 18, 2026 18.08.2026 7min

  Brian Szytel recaps a modest down day in markets with the Dow down 116 points, S&P 500 down 0.7%, and Nasdaq down 1.3%, noting S&P advancers outnumbered decliners and equal-weight outperformed cap-weighted in a rotation toward value; the 10-year Treasury closed near 4.71%. Economic data was mixed: pending home sales fell 2.3% versus an expected 0.6% gain, housing starts missed at 1.2 million versus 1.3 million expected, import prices fell 0.4% versus an expected 0.1% rise, and industrial production came in at 0.2% versus 0.4% expected. He argues media “doomsdayism” about higher long-end yields overlooks longer-term context, with 30-year yields around 5.3% being normal historically, while acknowledging deficit and debt risks and linking higher growth to higher yields. He also cautions that CEO insider buying is only one data point and not a standalone investment thesis, emphasizing bottom-up fundamental analysis. 00:00 Market Wrap Intro 01:04 Housing Data Misses 01:41 Inflation and Production 02:12 Bond Yields Perspective 02:49 Debt Fears and Growth 04:21 Insider Buying Reality 05:11 Fundamentals Over Tips 05:26 Closing and Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
• 
  Monday - August 17, 2026 17.08.2026 14min

  Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4bTEA2m From Charlottesville, host David Bahnsen recaps Monday market action: the Dow fell 273 points (~0.5%), the S&P 500 also about 0.5%, and the Nasdaq about 0.3%, with energy the only positive sector (up ~0.9%) and communication services the worst (down ~1.5%); the 10-year yield ended near 4.73% as the yield curve steepened. He highlights a chart showing AI-driven capital expenditures as an unprecedented share of GDP and discusses risks tied to funding costs. Citing Strategas, he notes steepening periods historically favor energy and financials over tech/communications. On politics, he sees polling and prediction markets suggesting a potential Democratic Senate flip, with Michigan pivotal, though Republicans may have a post–Labor Day spending edge. Economically, July retail sales fell 0.6%, while large tariff refunds may be supporting activity; he also flags housing affordability issues and previews Jackson Hole and upcoming Dividend Cafe content. 00:00 Welcome and Charlottesville 00:44 Market Close Recap 01:36 AI CapEx and GDP 02:59 Yield Curve Steepening 04:38 Senate Polling Outlook 07:36 Retail Sales and Tariff Refunds 09:06 Housing Affordability Chart 10:17 Fed Signals and Jackson Hole 11:39 Oil Prices and Rig Counts 12:26 Upcoming Shows and Wrap Up Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
• 
  A Letter To My Daughter as She Goes Off to College 14.08.2026 16min

  Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3U1KSqA David Bahnsen opens the Friday Dividend Cafe with a personal episode, reading a verbatim letter to his daughter Sadie ahead of moving her into the University of Virginia. He praises her discipline and independence in earning admission while still enjoying friendships and fun, and urges her not to “peak in college” but to use the next four years as a springboard for real life. His core advice is to make good decisions, seize the day, choose friends who encourage her, and handle professors she disagrees with without seeking conflict. He offers brief dating guidance, emphasizes personal agency and responsibility in shaping the kind of life one has, reminds her to practice thrift with credit cards and apps, and closes by affirming unconditional love and support from her parents and faith. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
• 
  Thursday - August 13, 2026 13.08.2026 8min

  Brian Szytel reviews a broad market rally with the Dow up 69 points, the S&P 500 up two-thirds of a percent, and the Nasdaq up eight-tenths, alongside a modest bond rally as the 10-year yield fell three basis points to 4.65; WTI oil declined about 2.5% to $81. He highlights disinflationary data following a cooler CPI, with PPI coming in flat versus expectations of +0.2 and core PPI at 0.2 versus 0.3, putting core PPI at 4.2% year over year. Fed futures shifted, with September hike odds falling to about 32% from over 50% two days prior, while fundamentals remain strong despite valuation concerns near 22x. Weekly jobless claims were slightly worse at 209k versus 204k. He also discusses how inflation can erode sovereign debt burdens, risks of high debt-to-GDP (U.S. ~120%), and contrasts with Japan’s 204% given domestic ownership of JGBs. 00:00 Market Rally Recap 00:46 Inflation Data Boost 01:55 Rates Expectations Shift 02:26 Valuations Versus Fundamentals 03:08 Weekly Claims And Geopolitics 03:33 Debt And Inflation Playbook 04:54 US Debt To GDP Context 05:35 Japan Comparison And Scale 06:24 Wrap Up And Next Episode Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
• 
  Wednesday - August 12, 2026 12.08.2026 7min

  On Wednesday, August 12, Brian Szytel reports a quiet, mixed market day as July CPI came in essentially in line with expectations, leaving stocks and bonds little changed (Dow flat, S&P up 0.25%, Nasdaq up 0.5%, 10-year unchanged). Headline CPI rose 0.1% month over month to 3.4% year over year, while core CPI rose 0.2%, with medical care, airfares, used vehicles, and shelter contributing. Fed September hike odds fell from about 50% to 42% ahead of upcoming PPI data and Jackson Hole. He notes inflation is moving in the right direction slowly, while employment signals are mixed (unemployment 4.1%, weaker JOLTS and slightly missed nonfarm gains). Addressing a question on baby boomers supporting children, he says wealth transfers are not money creation and are a “closed loop,” though lower labor force participation and skills could hurt productivity. 00:00 Market Recap 00:33 CPI Breakdown 01:43 Fed Outlook Ahead 02:30 Jobs And Softening Data 03:01 Boomer Wealth Question 04:07 Is It Inflationary 05:05 Wrap Up From Florida Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
• 
  Tuesday - August 11, 2026 11.08.2026 8min

  Brian Szytel hosts Dividend Cafe on Tuesday, August 11, describing a quiet, rudderless market session ahead of tomorrow’s CPI, with the Dow and S&P down about 0.3% and the Nasdaq down about 0.6%, the 10-year near 4.69%, and oil up about 1%. He notes better-than-expected NFIB small business optimism (99.8 vs. 97) and slightly stronger existing home sales (~4.1 million) though housing remains frozen by higher rates. Szytel then analyzes U.S. federal debt growth across eras since 2000, citing debt CAGR of 7.3% (2000–2008), 8.0% (2008–2017), 9.5% (2017–2022), and 6.6% (2022–now), arguing debt still grows faster than nominal GDP even in strong times. He also clarifies U.S. tax revenue is 17% of GDP federally but 27% including state and local when comparing to Europe’s ~50%. 00:00 Market Snapshot 00:56 Economic Data Check 01:39 Debt Growth Explained 02:53 Debt Eras Breakdown 04:03 Why It Still Matters 05:43 Tax Revenue Clarification 06:47 Wrap Up Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
• 
  Monday - August 10, 2026 10.08.2026 15min

  Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4hmEuE3 David Bahnsen hosts the Monday Dividend Cafe, recapping a quiet market day with the Dow down 60 points, the S&P essentially flat, and the Nasdaq down 32 bps, while noting rapid credit-spread tightening and the 10-year yield closing at 4.7%. Energy led sectors as oil rose over 5%, while REITs lagged; he highlights that most S&P 500 profit-margin expansion is concentrated in large tech rather than the broader index. PitchBook data show 33,600 unsold private-equity-owned companies globally, up year-to-date. On policy, the Senate recessed after voting to fund the government through mid-December, with no movement on a GOP budget blueprint or the CLARITY crypto bill. The key development was Friday’s jobs report: 23,000 jobs lost, large downward revisions, and a lower unemployment rate driven by labor-force exits, reducing September hike odds to 50/50. Redfin data show widespread below-ask home sales, especially in Florida and Texas, and he addresses a listener question about faith references in his Friday piece. 00:00 Welcome and Agenda 00:24 Market Wrap and Rates 00:57 Credit Spreads and Risk 02:18 Sector Moves and Breadth 02:57 Margins and AI Divide 04:12 Private Equity Backlog 05:17 Friday Episode Plug 06:02 Middle East and Oil 06:28 Washington Policy Update 07:21 Jobs Report Shock 07:55 Fed Outlook After Jobs 08:43 Housing Price Softening 10:50 Energy and SPR Levels 11:29 Ask TBG Faith Question 13:49 Closing and Friday Preview Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
• 
  Ten Economic Principles Worth Fighting For 07.08.2026 28min

  Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4yXEhxi David Bahnsen argues investors focus too much on describing or predicting the economy and not enough on prescriptive first principles about what a market economy ought to be. He outlines 10 “non-negotiable” tenets of free enterprise: private property; the profit motive; division of labor; innovation and progress; capital and labor enhancing one another (rejecting a Marxian conflict view); laissez-faire as the default with prudent regulation; incentives matter; Hayek’s knowledge problem and the dangers of centralized planning; an economics of addition and multiplication (growth) over subtraction and division (redistribution/zero-sum thinking), including how his firm invests; and “work” as the verb of economics that animates prosperity and service to others. He warns these principles are being treated as dispensable across modern political discourse, with consequences for portfolios. 00:00 Why Principles Matter 02:08 Ten Non Negotiables 03:11 Private Property 08:51 Profit Motive 10:29 Division of Labor 11:45 Innovation and Progress 13:25 Capital and Labor 15:32 Laissez Faire 16:32 Incentives Matter 18:05 Knowledge Problem 21:09 Growth Not Zero Sum 23:31 Work The Verb 25:19 Closing Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
• 
  Thursday - August 6, 2026 06.08.2026 8min

  Brian Szytel recaps a down Thursday market session (Dow -464, S&P -13, Nasdaq flat) amid ongoing rotation between tech and value, with the 10-year yield up 6 bps to 4.68%. Economic data showed initial jobless claims at 199k, a historically low level supportive of strong employment, and Q2 productivity rising 1.4% versus 0.6% expected, which he notes could be disinflationary over time alongside tools like AI. He then focuses on U.S. fiscal issues, citing a 7.7% fiscal gap versus much smaller gaps in Germany, France, and Italy, arguing Europe’s lower gaps reflect much higher taxation (including ~20% VATs), which comes with slower growth and reduced competitiveness. He warns U.S. fiscal irresponsibility can reduce long-term growth, even if higher rates from “bond vigilantes” are uncertain in timing. 00:00 Market Recap 00:44 Jobs and Productivity Data 01:10 AI and Disinflation 01:53 US Fiscal Gap Focus 02:35 Europe Comparison and VAT 04:24 Debt and Interest Rates 05:39 Closing Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
• 
  Wednesday - August 5, 2026 05.08.2026 8min

  On Wednesday, August 5, Brian Szytel recaps a mixed market day: the Dow rose 263 points while the S&P fell 12 and the Nasdaq dropped about 0.8%, with financials, healthcare, and staples leading as tech lagged after the prior day’s momentum rally. He says markets are increasingly desensitized to the war and are more supported by fundamentals, highlighting Q2 earnings where 61% of companies have reported, 86% beat EPS (highest in five years), and 77% beat revenue. Economic data included a weaker ADP private payrolls print (44k vs. 75k consensus) and ISM services roughly in line at 54.1. He answers a question on why the Fed doesn’t let rates float, outlining the Fed’s evolution from lender of last resort to open market operations, yield curve control, and rate targeting, arguing reserve-currency status and global interconnectedness make free-floating impractical now. 00:00 Market Recap Mixed Session 00:53 Hormuz Headlines vs Fundamentals 01:56 Q2 Earnings Strength 03:14 Today’s Economic Data 03:52 Should Rates Float Freely 04:20 Fed History and Evolution 05:41 Reserve Currency Reality 06:24 Wrap Up and Tomorrow Preview Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
• 
  Tuesday - August 4, 2026 04.08.2026 9min

  On August 4, Brian Szytel recaps a massive cross-asset rally as markets price hopes of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz: oil fell 6% to $75, the 10-year yield dropped 7 bps to 4.61%, and stocks and bonds rose (Dow +907, S&P +1.8%, Nasdaq +2.6% led by semis/AI). He notes the market has become desensitized to Middle East risk and remains skewed upward with major indexes up 12.5%–14% YTD, but highlights unusually violent, bifurcated single-stock moves around earnings as investors struggle to discount AI impacts amid accounting and borrowing stresses. He warns leverage amplifies drawdowns, citing July deleveraging and a 4:1-levered AI hedge fund collapsing after a 67% drawdown. Economic data: job openings 7.3M (in line/slightly low), factory orders -0.3% vs +0.3% expected, trade deficit $73.3B. He answers a viewer question on inflation, explaining the Fed can influence money supply via its balance sheet but can’t directly control velocity, relying on multiple tools including interest on reserves, and references efforts to shift narratives back toward market-set pricing. 00:00 Market Rally Recap 00:16 Oil Rates And Geopolitics 01:50 Year To Date Performance 02:10 Wild Stock Reactions 02:56 AI Accounting And Volatility 03:33 Leverage And Hedge Funds 04:41 Economic Data Check 05:26 Fed Money Supply Question 05:57 How The Fed Tools Work 07:47 Wrap Up And Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
• 
  Monday - August 3, 2026 03.08.2026 15min

  Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4yUosr7 David Bahnsen reviews a “bizarre” July in which long-term yields rose, the Iran ceasefire/MOU collapsed, semiconductors fell sharply, and the yen hit multi-decade lows—yet the S&P 500 finished flat with improved breadth—and notes a strong early-August rally led by mega-cap tech while oil fell and energy dipped. He highlights massive hyperscaler capital expenditures and the key market questions around ROI, timing, financing, and systemic exposure. Bahnsen discusses shifting Iran headlines, policy items including the Todd Blanche AG nomination, the low odds of the Save Act and another reconciliation bill, Michigan’s Senate primary dynamics, and a multi-state lawsuit over Section 301 tariff rationale. He covers Q2 real GDP at 1.5%, stronger July ISM manufacturing, elevated mortgage rates, Fed chair Warsh and balance-sheet effects, Treasury’s reported yen buying, and midstream/MLP performance. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 00:23 July Market Recap 02:22 Monday Rally Snapshot 03:04 Big Tech Capex Questions 05:03 Iran Headlines and Oil 05:39 Washington Policy Update 07:50 GDP and ISM Readouts 09:01 Rates and Housing Impact 09:49 Fed Chair and Yen Move 12:45 Energy and Midstream Returns 13:10 Wrap Up and Next Episode 13:39 Disclosures and Disclaimers Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
• 
  Thursday - July 30, 2026 30.07.2026 7min

  Brian Szytel recaps a sharp market reversal day as prior rotation out of semiconductors flipped into a strong tech rebound, with semis up about 7% and several large names rising 10–15%. The Dow gained 613 points (+1.2%), the S&P 500 rose 1.7%, and the Nasdaq climbed 2.8%. A major software company posted blowout earnings and surged 16%—adding roughly $490B in market cap—though the broader software sector was down, making it an outlier. Despite escalations in the Iran war, WTI oil fell about 1%. He addresses an inflation question, distinguishing relative price shocks (tariffs/supply disruptions) from inflation as a broader monetary phenomenon, noting demand-pull, cost-push, and money-supply dynamics. Economic data included Q2 GDP at 1.5% (below expectations), jobless claims at 197K, PCE in line (headline 3.7% y/y; core 3.3% y/y), personal income +0.2%, and consumer spending +0.3%. 00:00 Market Reversal Recap 00:59 Tech and Earnings Surge 01:49 Oil and Geopolitics Oddities 02:03 What Inflation Really Means 03:16 Three Types of Inflation 03:30 Economic Data Rundown 04:41 Fed Outlook and Wrap Up 05:27 Closing and Tomorrow Preview Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
• 
  Everything We Learned about the New Fed This Week 31.07.2026 24min

  Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4wwsHI5 David Bahnsen reviews this week’s Fed meeting, noting some credible forecasts expected a surprise 25–50 bp hike, though the Fed ultimately held. He argues the Fed’s rationale was unusually direct: financial conditions tightened without a hike as yields rose across the curve, and further tightening should prioritize stopping balance-sheet expansion after $200–$250B of added assets this year. Bahnsen contrasts camps calling for hikes because inflation has stayed above 2% with those citing falling TIPS-implied inflation expectations near 2%, while emphasizing Warsh’s market-focused approach and opposition to investors “gaming” Fed guidance (“play the ball, not the referee”). Warsh rejects a Phillips-curve tradeoff, saying price stability and full employment are not in conflict and inflation harms labor markets. Bahnsen expects falling hike odds and is skeptical rates rise this year, viewing Warsh as reform-minded but incremental, independent from President Trump despite citing tariffs and oil-driven supply shocks. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 00:36 Why This Fed Meeting 03:36 Case for Rate Hike 05:12 Fed Transparency Shift 08:22 Markets Tightened Already 10:21 Balance Sheet First 14:11 Warsh Philosophy Shift 16:50 Hike Odds and Outlook 17:55 Independence and Politics 20:47 Closing Takeaways 22:44 Sign Off and Weekend Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
• 
  Wednesday - July 29, 2026 29.07.2026 6min

  Brian Szytel hosts Dividend Cafe on Wednesday, July 29, describing a volatile “Fed day” as the FOMC held Fed funds unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. Markets swung sharply and finished broadly lower, with the Dow down 1,153 points (about 2%), the S&P 500 down 1.5%, and Nasdaq down 1.7%, alongside higher rates, rising Middle East tensions involving the U.S. and Iran, and WTI up nearly 7%. He notes a dramatically steepening yield curve, reduced reliance on forward guidance as described by Warsh, and futures implying a 53% chance of a September hike and 31 bps of hikes through year-end. He highlights a divided Fed with three dissenters and discusses a question comparing AI hyperscalers to GFC-era “systemically important” financials, contrasting past equity wipeouts with proposals for government equity participation in AI firms. 00:00 Welcome and Fed Day 00:43 Market Whipsaw Recap 01:17 Rates Oil and Geopolitics 01:38 Yield Curve and Fed Signals 03:01 AI Bailout Question 03:30 GFC Parallels and Differences 04:28 Wrap Up and Takeaways Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
• 
  Tuesday - July 28, 2026 28.07.2026 4min

  David Bahnsen fills in for Brian Szytel with the Dividend Cafe daily recap, noting the Dow rose 537 points (over 1%) while the Nasdaq fell 22 basis points, underscoring a market rotation away from semiconductors and some technology (semiconductors down almost 5%) toward more traditional/value areas. Healthcare led with a 2.3% gain, followed by consumer staples up 2% and materials up 1.66%, while energy fell 1.4% and technology fell 1.1%, reflecting unusually wide dispersion. The 10-year Treasury closed at 4.6%, down 4 basis points, alongside a broader bond rally with yields lower across the curve. Bahnsen highlights intense attention on the upcoming Fed meeting and argues there is too much focus on the Fed versus the real economy, with more commentary to follow. 00:00 Welcome and Host Swap 00:08 Market Rotation Snapshot 01:00 Sector Winners and Losers 01:36 Rates and Bond Rally 02:07 Fed Hype and Real Economy 02:45 Tomorrow Coverage Preview 02:49 Ask TBG and Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
• 
  Monday - July 27, 2026 27.07.2026 17min

  Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4yKPl0J The Monday Dividend Cafe reviews a volatile market session where early gains faded despite oil dropping on renewed Iran-talk hopes; the Nasdaq finished slightly down, the S&P flat, and the Dow up 0.5%. The host flags NVIDIA’s move to guarantee $250B in financing for an OpenAI data center and notes NVIDIA fell 5%, while highlighting widening CCC credit spreads as a developing risk signal. Sector performance showed rotation rather than broad risk-off, with staples up and energy down on the day, and notable dispersion across semiconductors and software. Policy coverage includes a six-month tariff extension shifting toward Section 301 (10–12%) with expected legal challenges, plus midterm implications tied to Michigan’s Senate race. Economic notes: durable goods strength largely driven by data centers; new home sales up modestly but down YoY with prices off peak. Ahead: FOMC under Chair Warsh, balance-sheet tightening possibility, and ongoing earnings season. 00:00 Monday Market Rundown 00:15 Oil Hopes Fade 01:30 NVIDIA Financing Shock 02:21 Credit Spreads Warning 04:00 Sector Rotation Month 04:45 Semis And Software Dispersion 06:21 Tariffs And Trade Policy 07:49 Midterms Michigan Bellwether 10:11 Durables And Data Centers 10:51 Housing And Mortgage Lock In 11:58 Warsh Fed Meeting Preview 14:32 Oil Move And Midstream 14:45 QandA Links And Wrap Up Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
• 
  Inflation vs. Deflation in an Age of AI 24.07.2026 22min

  Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3TdOnKh David Bahnsen discusses whether the U.S. has shifted from the 1990–2020 disinflation era to a higher structural inflation range, engaging Dr. Lacy Hunt’s view that the prior 1.5–2.5% equilibrium may have broken toward 3.5–5% as globalization wanes. Bahnsen argues globalization aided disinflation but wasn’t the sole driver, emphasizing Hunt’s framework that rising government debt lowers money velocity, crowds out productive investment, and suppresses long-term growth. He questions whether deglobalization is truly structural, citing industrial-policy efforts as often half-hearted and inconsistently enforced. Turning to AI, he notes build-out is capital- and energy-intensive and can be temporarily inflationary, but sees two longer-run outcomes that both lean disinflationary: a favorable productivity-driven supply shock, or a recessionary bust if AI disappoints. He concludes the dominant backdrop remains excess government debt and spending depressing growth. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 00:28 Inflation Beyond Headlines 02:23 The Disinflation Era 1990-2020 04:08 Lacy Hunt and Debt Dynamics 06:35 Was Globalization the Driver 09:15 Is Globalization Really Ending 12:23 AI as the New Productivity Wave 14:02 Funding the Buildout 15:11 Two AI Outcomes Deflation Either Way 19:19 Final Takeaways and Signoff Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
• 
  Thursday - July 23, 2026 23.07.2026 6min

  In this Dividend Cafe Thursday episode, Brian Szytel recaps a broad market selloff with stocks and bonds down as the Dow fell nearly 600 points, the S&P 500 dropped 1.5%, and the Nasdaq slid 2.4% while the 10-year yield rose about four basis points to 4.7%. He attributes pressure to escalating Middle East tensions after a Houthi attack in the Red Sea, driving oil sharply higher (WTI up 6% near $92 and Brent up 7% above $100), and to disappointing earnings from bellwether tech names Google and Tesla, with Google showing negative free cash flow amid heavy CapEx. He notes markets are only about 4% off highs, cautions that volatility is normal, questions the usefulness of the Shiller CAPE given decades of “overvaluation,” and highlights very strong weekly jobless claims (187, lowest since 1969), which could raise the odds of a Fed hike. 00:00 Market Wrap Overview 00:52 Oil Shock and Rates Rise 01:27 Earnings Hit Tech Leaders 02:49 Volatility and Drawdown Reality 03:36 Shiller CAPE Debate 04:06 Jobs Data and Fed Outlook 04:54 Sign Off and Disclosures Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com