Not Investment Advice
notinvestmentadvice00
0
Not Investment Advice is a weekly podcast featuring Ian, Eric, and Kevin in conversation about venture capital, startups, technology, the economy, investing, and markets. Each episode offers informal discussion and analysis aimed at listeners interested in business and financial trends. The show blends personal perspectives with commentary on current developments in tech and investing. It is produced independently and distributed via Podbean.
Osad
-
EP13: Airtable’s exit math, Ian’s SpaceX short, and the garbage collectors coming for SaaS. 12.08.2026 44minThree VCs, one mic, three opinions you won't hear at a fund meeting. Eric Bahn (Hustle Fund), Ian Park (ex-sovereign wealth fund), Kevin Jiang (Mangusta Capital).Recorded live at Hippocampus, San Francisco: http://hippocamp.coCHAPTERS0:00 Cold open: the first live taping ever0:48 SpaceX's first earnings as a public company3:23 Ian shorted SpaceX before the print5:05 The Tesla acquisition rumor6:25 Who saves SpaceX? Neuralink in 10 years7:58 Eric's all-Elon 2035 commute8:53 Jeff Dean leaves Google for Discovery Loop10:12 "It's the data": the moat nobody can copy12:41 The Meta boomerang theory13:38 Travis Kalanick is back: Atoms raises $1.7B16:00 Project Shoplift18:36 The rebrand, the PR blitz, the bad boys20:08 Do repeat founders actually repeat?22:08 Bending Spoons buys Airtable for $1.28B24:11 Raised $1.4B, sold for $1.28B26:02 "The company just gave up"31:12 Can roll-ups survive the AI era?33:47 The clone test for VC diligence34:27 Robinhood sells YC access at $25 a share37:22 "Retail access means the market has peaked"40:12 Middle schoolers want Kalshi, not index funds43:13 Sign-off: unhinged personalities, not investment adviceSubscribe: https://www.youtube.com/@ThreeCommasPodcast Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3WizdQFQAZK1ysAGn6tOTS Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/not-investment-advice/id1876120327Nothing on this show is investment advice.#SpaceX #JeffDean #TravisKalanick #Airtable #BendingSpoons #Robinhood #VentureCapital -
EP12: $20B AI Fund Died in Six Days - Leopold’s fund, Korean president’s AI Summit, Elon’s interview 02.08.2026 55minThe chingus get invited to the Korean president's AI Summit in San Francisco, where Sam Altman and Dario Amodei sit in opposite corners while every tech titan in the room courts Korea. Then the story of the week: Leopold Aschenbrenner's 4x-levered, $20 billion Situational Awareness fund gets margin-called into a fire sale, Citadel buys the entire book before the market opens, and the Kospi swings 40% in two days. They close with Tesla reportedly shopping its China business to clear the path for a SpaceX merger, and BTS boycotting the Grammys over the new Asian Pop category.Three VCs, one mic, three opinions you won't hear at a fund meeting. Eric Bahn (Hustle Fund), Ian Park (ex-sovereign wealth fund), Kevin Jiang (Mangusta Capital).CHAPTERS0:00 Margin calls and Friday morning greetings1:19 Inside the Korean president's AI Summit in SF3:22 A king holding court: Sam and Dario won't make eye contact6:14 The VC MOU and the work behind the scenes7:35 The Leopold Aschenbrenner story begins9:15 Kevin explains margin and 4x leverage13:59 Columbia at 15, FTX, OpenAI: the resume18:20 Ian: this is Bill Hwang all over again21:44 Institutional funds need institutional risk management23:25 Can LPs even get their money out?30:02 Ken Griffin, Citadel, and the FUD theory34:28 Jane Street was already an LP35:45 The market wanted a villain38:01 Dead cat bounces and how bubbles actually pop40:02 Tesla preps a China separation for the SpaceX merger43:55 Ian's trade idea: maybe Blue Origin45:25 Robotaxi is the only thing left to save Tesla47:16 Elon's Economist interview meltdown48:44 BTS boycotts the Grammys' new Asian Pop category53:32 The chingus announce their K-pop debut54:10 Sign-off: for the love of God, not investment adviceSubscribe: https://www.youtube.com/@ThreeCommasPodcast Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3WizdQFQAZK1ysAGn6tOTS Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/not-investment-advice/id1876120327Nothing on this show is investment advice.#LeopoldAschenbrenner #Citadel #Tesla #SpaceX #BTS #VentureCapital -
Everyone ’Got’ SpaceX. Almost Nobody Got It Directly. 14.06.2026 49minThe biggest IPO in history is done. SpaceX went public Friday at a $1.77T valuation, ~4x oversubscribed, then popped ~19% on day one to a ~$2T close — minting ~4,000 millionaires. The chingus recorded on the eve of it and spent the night on the catch: most of the "I'm in SpaceX" crowd got there through SPVs stacked four and five layers deep. The same week, Jeff Bezos raises a $12B pre-seed at a $41B valuation for a company with no product, and Eric floats a dark theory about why VCs really wrote the check (hint: it's the logo, not the cap table). Plus: Coupang's record $409M data-breach fine and the bow that could've shrunk it, a Gemini-powered Siri nobody bought Apple for, SoftBank's $6B OpenAI margin loan getting told no, and Cloudflare's Matthew Prince naming Vinod Khosla on his way out.Three VCs, one mic, three opinions you won't hear at a fund meeting. Eric Bahn (Hustle Fund), Ian Park (ex-sovereign wealth fund), Kevin Jiang (Mangusta Capital).CHAPTERS 0:00 Hot chingu summer: SpaceX IPO eve 1:11 Why this isn't the top yet (Anthropic + OpenAI still to come) 3:49 The valuation arms race: from $1B to $1T outcomes 5:08 The K-shaped fund economy eating the middle 6:19 Nested SPVs and how everyone "got" SpaceX 9:21 Bezos raises a $12B pre-seed for Prometheus 15:11 Eric's dark theory: logo-stacking to impress LPs 18:58 Apple's Gemini-powered Siri (and who it's really for) 23:53 Coupang's record $409M data-breach fine 30:13 When a billionaire becomes soft power 35:41 SoftBank's $6B OpenAI margin loan stalls 41:50 Matthew Prince names Vinod Khosla 48:03 Sign-off: nothing here is investment advice -
Wall Street’s open. The redemption window isn’t. 05.06.2026 42minMoney is doing two contradictory things at once this week. The front door is wide open: Anthropic filed its confidential S-1 ahead of OpenAI, SpaceX priced a $75 billion listing for June 12, and Masa Son is on CNBC calling AI “50x bigger” than the dot-com boom. The back door is bolted shut: Cliffwater could only return a third of what its LPs asked for, and Partners Group gated its flagship buyout fund and lost 17% of its market cap in a day. The chingus spent the episode pulling on that thread — plus why Ian thinks your next AI model lives on your laptop, not in the cloud. Let’s get into it. -
SpaceX IPO, Sam vs. Elon, Polymarket Ban, Anthropic Earnings 25.05.2026 43min -
SpaceX & Anthropic Deal, Cloudflare Layoff, Gamestop & eBay, and Sam Altman 12.05.2026 47minJoin us as we dive into the spicy world of tech and business in this episode of the Three Commas Podcast! 🚀In this episode, we discuss the latest drama surrounding OpenAI, Elon Musk's lawsuit, and the implications for the AI industry. We also explore GameStop's bold move to acquire eBay and what it means for the future of meme stocks.Key takeaways:* The fallout from Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI and its impact on the tech landscape.* GameStop's surprising proposal to acquire eBay and the challenges ahead.* Insights into the evolving dynamics of the AI market and public perception.Timestamps:00:00 Chingus — the new besties02:27 Sam Altman's leaked texts to Mira Murati08:42 Elon Musk is running both sides of the OpenAI story13:30 Are OpenAI's products actually getting better?15:25 SpaceX cuts a multi-year compute deal with Anthropic19:53 Should xAI just pivot to hardware?24:13 DeepSeek's $7B raise and the "Chinese discount"26:33 Anthropic's 5D chess — from DoD risk-list to IPO29:18 Cloudflare cuts 1,100 jobs and drops 24%33:06 "We don't count you as an AI company"34:43 OpenAI is the canary in the coal mine35:38 GameStop's $56B bid for eBay40:29 The unprepped bro CEO archetype46:30 Sign off (chingu, hippo poop, see you next week)What's your take on the latest tech drama? Drop your thoughts in the comments!Subscribe for weekly insights and analysis on the latest in tech and business!#ThreeCommasPodcast #TechNews #BusinessTrends -
AI just blew up a $5.7B PE deal 03.05.2026 54minThree VCs, one mic, three opinions you won’t hear at a fund meeting. Hosted by Eric, Ian, and Kevin.----------------------------------------Toma Bravo just handed Medallia to its creditors and ate an estimated $5.7 billion in equity value — the largest LBO write-off since 2008. The story sounds like a one-firm miscalculation, but underneath it is something bigger: AI is starting to reprice every SaaS multiple anyone underwrote in 2021. We also got into Beijing forcing the unwind of a $2B Meta deal after the money had already wired, the Powell succession drama, and why Ian thinks Middle Eastern LP capital calls are a flight risk. -
Cursor for $60B, Tesla’s Lie, and FTX’s Lost Empire 28.04.2026 58minThis week, Sam Bankman-Fried tweeted from prison about the FTX portfolio he could have held — Anthropic, SpaceX, Cursor, Solana, Robinhood — and the boys spent half the episode doing the math on what might have been the greatest VC fund ever assembled by an alleged fraudster. Meanwhile, Elon quietly admitted that 4 million Tesla owners were lied to about Full Self-Driving, SpaceX put a $60 billion option on Cursor, and Apple picked a CEO who has literally never made a LinkedIn post. Recorded at 9:30pm Pacific from three time zones, two hemispheres, and one very tired Papa Eric. -
Anthropic Just Lapped OpenAI and Nobody’s Chill 12.04.2026 55minEP2: Three Commas Podcast00:00 Intro — Disneyland, Tequila Brands & The AI Editorial Bot02:35 Anthropic Passes OpenAI: $30B ARR — Can You Trust the Numbers?11:56 Claude Mythos Finds 27-Year-Old Bugs — Groundbreaking AI or Just Great PR?18:06 Meta Mu Spark Launches to Crickets — What Went Wrong32:00 The SaaS-pocalypse: Multiples Down 70% & Ian Built 25 Tools for $20039:09 OpenAI's Dumpster Fire: New Yorker Profile + C-Suite Exodus51:47 Outro — Is OpenAI SoftBank's Uber or WeWork? -
Is JP Morgan Selling Insurance Against the AI Bubble? 31.03.2026 50min00:00 - Intro & weekly roundup01:07 - Uber invests $1.25B in Rivian for robotaxis04:17 - Ian: why he stopped caring about cars06:15 - SpaceX IPO — no lockups, biggest offering ever?09:28 - Google's TurboQuant: the "Middle Out" compression breakthrough14:10 - Helium, the Middle East war, and chip supply chains16:03 - Apple opens Siri to Claude, GPT, and all AI models18:51 - Kevin: Apple hasn't truly innovated since Steve Jobs19:48 - Ian's Vision Pro confession (he uses it in bed)23:04 - JP Morgan launches AI credit default swaps — Big Short vibes26:41 - OpenAI kills Sora and walks away from a $1B Disney deal29:35 - Is consumer AI cooked?34:51 - Claude Mythos leak — is Anthropic about to IPO?38:16 - SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic: will these IPOs open the floodgates?42:35 - Manus, China, and what happens when you don't mess with the CCP49:48 - The podcast is getting a new name — submit your suggestions -
EP13: $250B Merger Mess, AI Skeptics vs. Token Addicts, and a Matchmaker Who Said No to VCs 21.03.2026 41minElon admits XAI was "not built right" and needs a full rebuild — bad news for SpaceX investors. Finance bros still won't let go of Bloomberg terminals, and a new poll shows most Americans are skeptical about AI. Meanwhile, Yann LeCun raises $1B for a company with no product, and Ian reveals a matchmaking startup that got 1,000 signups in 5 days with zero funding.0:00 Intro1:03 Elon Says XAI Was "Not Built Right" — SpaceX Investors Pay the Price5:34 Claude Dispatch, Channels & the AI Power-User Lifestyle10:55 Finance Bros Won't Drop Bloomberg & America's AI Skepticism20:23 Google Is Quietly Winning the AI Race24:30 Yann LeCun Raises $1B With No Product — AMI Labs31:43 Ian Launches "Ian and Friends" — Matchmaking for Global Koreans38:39 Bootstrap vs. VC: When Founders Say No to Money -
EP12: Two Villains, One Accidental Hero, Zero Saints | Anthropic vs OpenAI vs Trump 19.03.2026 52minThis week on Not Investment Advice, Eric, Ian, and Kevin break down the Anthropic vs. OpenAI drama after Trump's DOD labeled Anthropic a supply chain risk — and Sam Altman swooped in to sign the contract hours later. Plus, NVIDIA scales back its AI investments, OpenAI's IPO march raises WeWork comparisons, Apple drops a $499 MacBook aimed at killing Chromebooks, and Cluely's founder admits he lied about revenue.Read Ian's full article: http://thelonggame.vc—🕐 TIMESTAMPS0:00 — Intro 1:38 — Anthropic labeled a supply chain risk by the DOD 3:05 — Sam Altman signs DOD contract hours later, ChatGPT boycotts begin 4:55 — "Trump and Altman Made Dario a Martyr" — Ian's breakdown 7:23 — Claude hits #1 in the App Store, accidental marketing win 12:35 — OpenAI backs out of direct checkout in GPT apps 14:59 — Why AI companies keep failing at consumer products 17:42 — Jensen pulls back NVIDIA investment in OpenAI and Anthropic 19:05 — The circular economy problem: vendor financing and systemic risk 23:39 — OpenAI IPO targeting end of 2026 — is it the next WeWork? 28:56 — What this means for Anthropic's IPO timing 34:28 — Apple MacBook Neo: a $499 Trojan Horse to kill Chromebooks 42:46 — Samsung Galaxy S26: better than iPhone? 43:47 — Cluely founder Roy Lee admits he lied about ARR 51:21 — Closing thoughts—🎙️ Hosts: Eric Bahn, Ian Park, Kevin Jiang 📩 Subscribe for weekly takes on VC, startups, and tech from three investors who don't sugarcoat it.#venturecapital #ai #openai #anthropic #nvidia #apple #startups #vc #tech #podcast -
EP 11: Anthropic vs DOW, AI Clones, Prediction Markets | Ian Park, Eric Bahn, Kevin Jiang 03.03.2026 53min00:05 - Anthropic, DoD, Supply-Chain Risk, and Political Risk for AI Vendors01:02 - Government Alignment and OpenAI vs. Government Stance02:27 - Supply Chain Risk and Vendor Diversity07:27 - Open Letter Discussion and Investor Dynamics12:56 - Middle Eastern Capital in AI15:34 - The “Agent Future” and AI Representations17:11 - AI Clones and Founder Outreach Experiments23:39 - Personal Updates and AI-Washing28:05 - Prediction Markets and Insider Trading Concerns37:03 - Netflix/CNN Media Deals and AI-Native Media43:32 - Personal Bets and Closing Thoughts -
OpenClaw, Chinese Robot, Private Credit, Lucid 24.02.2026 1t 6minFollow the Hosts: Eric: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ericbahn/ Ian: https://www.linkedin.com/in/park-ian/ Kevin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jiangkevinChapters* 00:00 Introduction and Catching Up* 21:50 The Advancement of Chinese Robotics and AI* 27:20 Robinhood's Entry into Private Credit* 33:27 Private Credit Market* 40:28 Lucid Motors and EV Industry* 47:12 Venture Capital and Accelerators* 58:13 Social Media and Addiction -
Elon Is Jealous, OpenAI Is Desperate, Next Michigan, and Benchmark Lost Its Mind 13.02.2026 56minFollow the Hosts: Eric: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ericbahn/ Ian: https://www.linkedin.com/in/park-ian/ Kevin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jiangkevin00:00 The Exhausting Pace of Silicon Valley News02:54 Anthropic's Rise and Competition with OpenAI05:49 The Twitter Culture and Its Impact on AI Leaders08:40 The Introduction of Ads in AI Models11:50 The Future of AI: Local Models and Customization17:47 Kakao's Discounted ChatGPT and Market Dynamics22:25 Brian Johnson's Immortality Program: A Cult or a Trend?29:25 The Cult of Longevity33:10 Cerebras vs Nvidia: The AI Chip Showdown43:07 The SPV Dilemma in Venture Capital45:12 AI and the Future of Work: A Cautionary Tale -
Musk’s Crumbling Empire, SaaS Apocalypse, Sam Altman Got Played | 3 VCs React 09.02.2026 49minFollow the Hosts: Eric: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ericbahn/ Ian: https://www.linkedin.com/in/park-ian/ Kevin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jiangkevin00:00 Super Bowl Predictions and Initial Thoughts 00:58 The SaaS Apocalypse: Market Reactions 05:59 The Future of SaaS Pricing Models 08:40 Elon Musk's Consolidation of Assets 12:07 The Anthropic vs. OpenAI Ad War 18:23 Waymo's Expansion and the Future of Autonomous Vehicles 25:51 The Future of Car Ownership 29:25 Humanoid Robots: Promise and Challenges 35:53 The Rise of Stablecoins in Startups 39:37 Rethinking Revenue Metrics in Startups -
SpaceX & XAi, Clawdbot, Claude Cowork, Future of Work 30.01.2026 53minEP 7 : SpaceX & XAi, Clawdbot, Claude Cowork, Future of WorkChapters* 00:00 Tech Market Volatility* 05:27 Impact of Automated Excel on Finance* 11:03 Tesla's Business Strategy and SpaceX Merger* 26:29 Voice Interfaces and AI in Technology* 33:32 Literacy Challenges and Reduced Reading* 40:57 AI Bots and Their Impact on SocietyFollow the Hosts:Eric: https://x.com/ericbahn?lang=enIan: https://ianpark.vc/Kevin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jiangkevin/ -
Brex, Mega funds, OpenAI and Anthropic Valuation 29.01.2026 41minChapters- 00:00 Early Morning Podcast- 05:10 Comparing Brex and Ramp- 12:10 OpenAI and Trillion-Dollar Valuations- 18:46 Anthropic and Valuation Trends- 24:09 Funding Frenzy in the Tech Industry- 35:36 Strategies of Tech GiantsFollow the Hosts:Eric: https://x.com/ericbahn?lang=enIan: https://ianpark.vc/Kevin: @jiangkevin -
2026 Mega IPOs & AGI Hype, Sam Altman’s BCI Bet, Meta Buys Manus 18.01.2026 43minIn this New Year 2026 episode, Eric, Kevin, and Ian kick off the season with a wide‑ranging conversation on Sam Altman’s circular investing and OpenAI conflicts, Google Gemini’s “personal intelligence,” on‑device AI and voice interfaces, Meta’s acquisition of Manis, and whether 2026 will be the year of mega IPOs and overhyped “AGI” claims. [00:00]Intro: CES, Koreans in Vegas, and networking vs. real tech [02:00]Sam Altman’s BCI startup & OpenAI conflict of interest [09:30]Circular investing, mega‑founder “camps,” and normalization of conflicts [15:30] Google Gemini “personal intelligence” and privacy backlash [21:30] Security gap and need for stronger authentication [24:30]Apple, Gemini on iPhone, and the “fast follower” strategy [29:30]Whisper Notes, on‑device AI, and voice interfaces [34:30] Meta acquires Manus: agents, geopolitics, and China–US tension [40:00] Why sell a hot AI agent startup for “only” ~$2B? [44:30] 2026 “Mega IPO” year? SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic & Databricks [50:30]Staying private vs. going public, and VC fund incentives [55:30] Inflection/“Mira” drama and the risks of team‑only mega rounds [1:02:00] Sequoia’s “AGI year” essay and hype frustration [1:08:00]What they’re excited about in 2026 & sign‑off 🔑 Key Takeaways Sam Altman & conflicts: OpenAI’s investment into Sam’s own BCI startup symbolizes how mega‑founders can blur governance lines, echoing SoftBank‑style circular deals and normalizing significant conflicts of interest. Personal AI vs. privacy: Gemini’s deep integration across Google products shows how powerful “personal intelligence” can be, but also why security, opt‑in design, and cultural attitudes to privacy will determine mainstream adoption. On‑device AI & agents: Cheap, small models (e.g., Whisper Notes) plus voice interfaces point toward a future where on‑device agents hold your private context and act autonomously on your behalf across work and life. Geopolitics & AI talent: Meta’s Manus deal illustrates how Chinese founders are moving to places like Singapore to access U.S. capital and exit markets amid a tightening China–US tech divide. IPOs, mega‑funds & AGI hype: 2026 could see marquee AI IPOs pushed by mega‑VC liquidity needs, even as many AI companies remain unprofitable and public investors remain cautious; alongside this, AGI rhetoric is increasingly seen as marketing rather than a meaningful technical milestone. Disclaimer: This content is for entertainment purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. -
K-Beauty Boom, OpenAI invests in Thrive, Form factor for AI, Sachs vs. NYT 13.12.2025 49min(01:00) K-Beauty Boom, (12:55) OpenAI invests in Thrive, (24:52) New form factor for AI (Zuck’s New Bet)(36:55) Sachs vs NYTFollow the Hosts:Eric: https://x.com/ericbahn?lang=enIan: https://ianpark.vc/Kevin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jiangkevin/
Sarnased taskuhäälingud
Populaarne riigis
See taskuhääling on ka nende riikide taskuhäälingute edetabelites.
