The Spillover

Jaksot

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  Nvidia Bets Big on Hugging Face + Sebastian Sashimi + AI-Powered Toothbrushes 14.09.2026 47min

  This week, hosts Sebastian Mallaby and Rebecca Patterson unpack Nvidia’s deal to purchase Hugging Face, the leading platform for open-weight AI models. The acquisition, they argue, highlights a battle between two visions of how the AI industry will develop, as well as concerns about safety and oligopoly.   Hosts:   Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Mentioned on the Episode:   Aditya Soni, Anhata Rooprai, and Harshita Mary Varghese, “Nvidia Bets $13 Billion on Open AI Models With Hugging Face Deal,” Reuters   Sebastian Mallaby and Sebastian Elbaum, “The AI Trilemma,” Foreign Affairs   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released.   The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
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  Can the U.S. ‘Grow’ Its Way Out of Debt? + Taxing Wealth in the Age of AI 10.09.2026 52min

  This week, host Rebecca Patterson speaks with Natasha Sarin, law professor and cofounder of the Yale Budget Lab, to unpack Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s claim that the United States can grow its way out of record debt, and whether AI can deliver the growth, jobs, and tax revenue needed to make that happen.   Host:   Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Guest:   Natasha Sarin, Professor of Law and Cofounder, The Yale Budget Lab   Mentioned on the Episode:   Natasha Sarin, “No Wonder Everyone’s Rallying Around This Terrible Idea,” New York Times   “Scott Bessent Says US Can ‘Grow Our Way Out’ of $40 Trillion Debt—Economist Says ‘Not Feasible’,” TradingView   “The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036,” Congressional Budget Office   Rebecca Patterson, “What the Treasury’s Buyback Surprise Says About the Bond Market,” CFR.org   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released.   The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
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  The U.S. Buys Stake in a Venezuelan Oil Company + Why Efficiency Is the Real Path to Energy Security 01.09.2026 48min

  This week, host Rebecca Patterson sits down with energy and climate expert Vijay Vaitheeswaran to discuss the U.S. government's acquisition of 35 percent equity stake in a Venezuelan oil company and how managing demand and boosting efficiency are critical for long-term energy security and climate progress.   Host:   Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Guest:   Vijay V. Vaitheeswaran, Philip D. Reed Senior Fellow and Director of the Energy Security and Climate Change Program, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Mentioned on the Episode:   Vijay V. Vaitheeswaran, “Why Nuclear Energy Is Making a Global Comeback,” CFR.org   Vijay V. Vaitheeswaran, “Crude Calculations: Why the Iran War Hasn’t Yet Caused an Oil Shock,” CFR.org   Vijay V. Vaitheeswaran, “Geothermal’s Time Has Finally Come,” The Economist   Vijay V. Vaitheeswaran, “Americans’ Electricity Bills Are Up. Don’t Blame AI,” The Economist   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released.   The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
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  Could the AI Debt Problem Create the Next Financial Crisis? 26.08.2026 1t 5min

  The financing behind the AI boom has grown so large that treasury bond yields are approaching levels not seen since the leadup to the 2008 financial crisis. But is the risk to the financial market overblown? This week, Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby are joined by Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo, to discuss the threat AI debt poses to the U.S. bond market.   Hosts:  Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)  Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)    Guest:  Torsten Slok, Partner and Chief Economist at Apollo   Mentioned on the Episode:   Torsten Slok, “A Slower AI Payoff Would Be Everyone's Problem,” Apollo   Torsten Slok, “Monitoring the AI Trade: How Growing Debt Issuance Is Reshaping the Landscape,” Apollo   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released.    The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
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  The Hosts Pick a Global AI Winner + The Advanced Economy Deployment Problem + The Question Even the Experts Can't Answer 18.08.2026 44min

  Artificial intelligence has become the biggest variable in the U.S. economy, but is the country really positioned to win the global race for economic dominance in AI? This week, Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby draw on Patterson's new chapter for the book Geopolitics of AI to guess at an eventual winner. The pair weighs the inputs of talent, capital, energy, and public support, and question popular assumptions about inevitable American success.    Hosts:   Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)    Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Mentioned on the Episode:   Geopolitics of AI, Johns Hopkins University Press   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released.    The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
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  How China Is Quietly Winning the Iran War Energy Crisis 12.08.2026 47min

  Five months of war in Iran have completely reshaped energy markets. This week, the Baker Institute’s Kristian Coates Ulrichsen joins Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby to examine how conflict in the Strait of Hormuz exposed the fragility of the world's maritime chokepoints, and revealed China as the quiet winner of the crisis. Hosts:   Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)    Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)    Guest:   Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Fellow for the Middle East and codirector of the Middle East Energy Roundtable, Baker Institute   Mentioned on the Episode:   Kristian Coates Ulrichsen and Jim Krane, “Maritime Chokepoints and Risks to Global Shipping and Energy Security,” Baker Institute   “China ‘Blockade Simulation’ Exposes $5 Trillion Global Danger,” Bloomberg   “Crossroads of Commerce: How the Taiwan Strait Propels the Global Economy,” CSIS   Spencer Kimball, “Oil in US Strategic Petroleum Reserve Falls Below 300 Million Barrels, Lowest Since 1983,” MSN   “China Is Now the World’s Great Oil Power,” The Economist   “The Middle East and Global Energy Markets,” IEA   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released.    The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
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  Spillover Summer Reading: The Best Books on Forecasting, Silicon Valley, and the Future 05.08.2026 1t 7min

  In this episode of The Spillover, Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby swap summer reading recommendations, including fiction and nonfiction picks covering American thinkers’ predictions for the twentieth century, an Irish murder mystery, and a Stanford student’s exposé on Silicon Valley venture capital and start-up culture. Hosts:   Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Mentioned on the Episode:   Dave Walter, Today Then   Manoj Pradhan and Charles Goodhart, The Unanchored Central Banker Tana French, The Keeper   Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson, Abundance   Theo Baker, How to Rule the World   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released.   The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
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  Jordan Schneider Thinks the Real AI Race Is About Compute, Not Models 28.07.2026 1t 2min

  In this episode of The Spillover, host Sebastian Mallaby sits down with Jordan Schneider, founder and editor-in-chief of the ChinaTalk podcast and newsletter, to discuss AI progress and security, as well as the U.S.-China AI rivalry.   Hosts: Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)    Guest: Jordan Schneider, Founder and Editor in Chief, ChinaTalk   Mentioned on the Episode: Jordan Schneider, “ChinaTalk” podcast and newsletter   “DeepSeek: The Quiet Giant Leading China’s AI Race,” translation of Liang Wenfeng’s interview with Waves   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released.   The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy. 
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  The AI Trilemma + Open-Weight Proliferation + the “Singularity Delusion” 21.07.2026 54min

  In this episode, The Spillover’s Sebastian Mallaby is hosted by Dan Kurtz-Phelan, editor of Foreign Affairs, to discuss the “AI trilemma”—the challenge U.S. policymakers face in encouraging enough innovation to stay ahead of China while addressing public anxiety about AI. Drawing on Mallaby’s recent Foreign Affairs essay and his new book, The Infinity Machine, this episode explores the stakes of the AI race and how its trajectory will reshape economies, societies, and global politics.   Host:   Dan Kurtz-Phelan, Editor, Foreign Affairs   Guest:   Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released.   The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
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  Rahm Emanuel Talks Israel, Midterm Elections, and the Democratic Party 15.07.2026 1t 4min

  Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby are joined by Rahm Emanuel, who served as President Bill Clinton’s political strategist, President Barack Obama’s first White House chief of staff, and President Joe Biden’s U.S. ambassador to Japan. The trio discuss Emanuel’s recent speech in Israel, the state of the U.S. Democratic Party, and the outlook for the upcoming midterm elections.   Hosts:   Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Guest:   Rahm Emanuel, Former U.S. Ambassador to Japan (2022–2025), Former Mayor of Chicago (2011–2019), Former White House Chief of Staff (2009–2010)   Mentioned on the Episode:   Emma Graham-Harrison, “Israeli Former Leaders and Security Chiefs Threaten Legal Action Over ‘Jewish Terrorism’,” The Guardian   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released.   The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
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  Washington Considers a Stake in OpenAI + Altman’s Gambit + America, Inc. 13.07.2026 51min

  On this episode of The Spillover, Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby, joined by CFR expert Jonathan Hillman, examine the U.S. government's rapidly growing portfolio of equity stakes in private companies, including a potential stake in OpenAI. Hosts:   Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Guest:   Jonathan E. Hillman, Senior Fellow for Geoeconomics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Mentioned on the Episode:   Jonathan E. Hillman, “Washington’s Growing Portfolio: Tracking U.S. Government Investments,” CFR.org   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released.   The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
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  Gold vs. Bitcoin Showdown 09.07.2026 43min

  Cohosts Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby stage a friendly debate over two so-called dollar alternatives—gold and bitcoin—weighing whether either has truly earned its reputation as a store of value. Patterson defends gold’s centuries of institutional credibility and diversification track record, while Mallaby makes the bull case for bitcoin’s finite supply and upside potential.   Hosts:   Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Mentioned on the Episode:   SPDR Gold Shares (GLD): The largest and most highly traded physical gold ETF, holding bullion in secure London vaults. It carries an expense ratio of 0.40 percent. This is just for information; it is not a trading recommendation.   Rebecca Patterson, “Gold as an Equity Hedge Requires Patience,” Financial Times   “CLARITY Act Countdown: Crypto Bill Misses July 4 Target, August 7 Deadline Looms,” Yahoo Finance   “Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey 2026,” World Gold Council   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released.   The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
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  Two Brits Unpack America’s 250th Birthday + The Cultural Civil War 01.07.2026 47min

  America’s 250th birthday is the talk of the nation. But the more important story might be what the milestone reveals about the fragile bargain between democracy and markets, and whether the republic can survive its own cultural divisions.   Host:   Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Guest:   Martin Wolf, Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times   Mentioned on the Episode:    Martin Wolf, The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism: A Diagnosis of Decline and Prescription for Repair    Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released.   The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
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  What Will the Fed Become Under Chair Kevin Warsh? + Greenspan's Legacy 23.06.2026 42min

  In this episode of The Spillover, host Rebecca Patterson and former Federal Reserve Vice Chair Roger W. Ferguson Jr. reflect on the legacy of recently deceased former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan, and examine what may lie ahead for the Fed under its new chair Kevin Warsh.   Hosts:   Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Guest:   Roger W. Ferguson Jr., Steven A. Tananbaum Distinguished Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR); Former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman (1999–2006)   Description:   On this episode of The Spillover, cohost Rebecca Patterson speaks with CFR Distinguished Fellow for International Economics Roger Ferguson about Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting as Chair of the Federal Reserve, which played out largely as predicted.   To bring in fresh perspectives, Warsh has created five task forces. They cover communication, the inflation mandate, productivity and jobs, data collection, and a balance sheet framework. Well-led task forces have historically moved the Fed forward, but progress will likely be uneven and slower than hoped. As Roger Ferguson notes, “This is the kind of thing where you want to measure twice, cut once. Once you make the change, you're gonna have to live with it for a period of time.”   Current conditions point to a rate hike rather than an ease. Core inflation appears stuck above three percent, energy-driven price pressures from the Iran war remain unresolved, while labor market and financial conditions are resilient.   The Fed works with blunt tools and within limited frameworks. Its single national interest rate cannot target individual sectors like housing or specific prices, and its goal remains controlling inflation rather than propping up housing, or equity prices. The Fed also never established a clear framework for when and how to use its balance sheet as a monetary or financial-stability tool, or how quickly to unwind quantitative easing.   AI is currently acting as an inflationary force, not a disinflationary one. It is driving a surge in capital expenditures that should push market rates somewhat higher to balance increased demand for capital.   Patterson and Ferguson discuss the life of Alan Greenspan—including his daily engagement with the U.S. economy for over fifty years, his habit of tracking unconventional indicators like railroad car loadings, and the fact that he was more often right than wrong on major issues. As Ferguson notes, Greenspan was part of a group of economic policymakers in the second half of the 20th century that helped the U.S. economy grow globally, overcoming the Soviet Union.   Mentioned on the Episode:   Sebastian Mallaby, “Alan Greenspan Understood Power and Was Not Afraid to Wield It,” The Washington Post   “Federal Reserve Issues FOMC Statement,” Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released.   The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
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  "A Job Beats a Handout" + Why the World Bank Is Betting Everything on Employment 19.06.2026 42min

  In this episode of The Spillover, host Sebastian Mallaby and CFR President Michael Froman speak with former U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and World Bank President Ajay Banga about the global jobs challenge facing millions of young people in emerging markets.    Hosts:   Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Michael Froman, CFR President   Guests:   Gina Raimondo, Distinguished Fellow, CFR; Former U.S. Secretary of Commerce (2021–2025)   Ajay Banga, President, World Bank Group   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released.   The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
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  SpaceX Goes Public + What IPOs Tell Us About Capital Markets 10.06.2026 40min

  The scale of the SpaceX IPO is dominating financial headlines, but the more important story might be what the sale reveals about the structure of modern capital markets, corporate governance, and the blurry line between public and private investing. This episode unpacks what the numbers actually show, why much of the popular narrative is overblown, and what investors should actually be paying attention to.   Hosts:   Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   We discuss: How the SpaceX IPO could raise around $75 billion, making it the largest IPO in history, and value the company at $1.77 trillion. How subsequent IPOs by Anthropic and OpenAI could bring a wave of funding valued at close to $200 billion in total.  Why the equity supply panic is overblown. SpaceX's alarming governance structure, under which Musk serves as CEO, CTO, and chairman simultaneously, holding a supermajority of votes despite a minority equity stake. How growth equity, unlike traditional private equity, offers zero oversight, often granting founders supervoting shares and investor loyalty pledges that amount to anti-governance rather than governance. How SpaceX's initial index weight will be tiny, since only a small fraction of the company will actually be publicly floated. How the S&P's profitability requirement is a deliberate lesson from the dot-com bust. Why SpaceX's revenue projections sound dazzling but tell only half the story, given that estimated capital expenditure could far outpace revenue through the end of the decade.   Mentioned on the Episode:    “IPOs: Number and Proceeds,” U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission   Jason Dean, “U.S. Officials Said to Discuss Taking Stakes in AI Companies,” The Information   Natalia Emanuel, Emma Harrington, and Amanda Pallais, “Remote Work Leaves Younger Workers Sidelined,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released.   The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy. 
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  China’s $735B Trade Surplus + How Beijing Masks Its Holdings + The G7 Debates Global Imbalances 02.06.2026 56min

  This episode unpacks why the trade and investment imbalances between the United States and China have grown to record levels despite years of pressure to correct them, and how the imbalanced system looks increasingly likely to collapse under its own weight.   Hosts:   Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Guest:   Brad W. Setser, Whitney Shepardson Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   We discuss:  How China’s 2025 current account surplus shattered records at $735 billion, jumping nearly 60 percent in one year. Why China’s overall trade surplus looks modest as a share of its own GDP but is unprecedented in absolute dollar terms, and arguably as a share of the global economy. As CFR expert Brad Setser puts it: “Trade should be two way. We sell to you, you sell to us. Not just one way.” How cheap Chinese goods and bond-buying benefited U.S. consumers and borrowers, even as they hollowed out manufacturing and fueled financial froth. Why China’s real leverage has shifted from dumping U.S. Treasury holdings to controlling rare earths, critical minerals, and permanent magnets the Fed can’t print. How China masks its holdings by moving out of U.S. custodians, leaving official data badly understating what it actually owns. Why the Belt and Road Initiative backfired, turning roughly $1 trillion of influence-buying into resentment and unpaid loans. Why China could let its currency appreciate but won’t, since a weak renminbi keeps the export engine running. Why Chinese leader Xi Jinping refuses to shift toward a consumption-driven model, viewing direct cash transfers as “welfarism.” Why the upcoming G7 summit is unlikely to fix any of this, turning the fight into China versus Europe as the system risks collapsing under its own weight.   Mentioned on the Episode:    Anne-Sylvaine Chassany, “Germany to Punish Ministries for Failing to Spend Funds Quickly Enough,” Financial Times   “A Conversation With Ambassador Jamieson Greer,” CFR.org   Brad W. Setser, “Time to Stop Forecasting China’s Surplus Away,” CFR.org   Mark Sobel, “Global Imbalances: Grandeur and a ‘Nothingburger’,” OMFIF   “The U.S.-China Trade Relationship: What’s Behind the Competition?,” CFR.org   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released.   The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
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  Japan Rearms + Guns vs. Butter + Global Defense Spending Boom 27.05.2026 43min

  As governments around the world ramp up defense spending, a new era of rearmament is reshaping economies, markets, inflation, and politics. This episode examines Japan’s dramatic shift away from its postwar pacifist identity amid rising tensions with China, ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, and growing uncertainty around the global security role of the U.S.   Hosts:   Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   We discuss:  Why the rearmament boom is globally synchronized and big enough to move fiscal balances and bond markets. How defense spending is colliding with already massive government debt, and pushing bond yields higher. Why Japan’s military transformation marks a significant reversal of its postwar identity. Why Japan’s debate over nuclear weapons remains emotionally raw more than eighty years after Nagasaki. How fear of China and doubts about the U.S. security umbrella are reshaping politics in Japan and Germany. How governments are trying to fund massive military buildups without cutting popular programs, and why bond markets may eventually force a reckoning. How rising military spending could fuel another wave of inflation, higher interest rates, and global market volatility, trapping central banks between fighting inflation and financing governments at war. As Rebecca Patterson puts it: “All this is happening when governments, frankly, can't afford more guns or butter because debt levels are very high.” How AI, drones, and cyberwarfare are rapidly changing the economics and strategy of modern conflict. How the new arms race is spilling far beyond the battlefield into tech, energy, supply chains, and the future of globalization.   Mentioned on the Episode:   David Kelly, “Five Scenarios for the Federal Debt,” J.P. Morgan Asset Management   “Fiscal Policy under Pressure: High Debt, Rising Risks,” International Monetary Fund (IMF)   “Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI),” Federal Reserve Bank of New York   “Majority of Japanese Support Constitutional Revision: Poll,” UPI   “Rebuilding Our Military,” The White House   “The True Cost of Peace: Rebalancing World Military Spending For a Sustainable and Peaceful Future,” United Nations   “World Economic Outlook: Defense Spending,” International Monetary Fund (IMF)   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released.   The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
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  Data Centers In Space? + Planet Labs CEO Talks ‘Large Earth Models’ 19.05.2026 56min

  AI and satellite imagery are quickly converging to create “planetary intelligence,” a new generation of systems capable of capturing and analyzing images of Earth in real time. This episode explores how the AI infrastructure race could move into orbit, with space-based data centers, falling launch costs, and “large Earth models” potentially transforming the global economy, geopolitics, and the future of artificial intelligence itself.   Host:   Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Guest:   Will Marshall, CEO and Cofounder, Planet Labs   We discuss:  How AI could transform the space economy more profoundly than the invention of the internet, and potentially move the world’s supercomputers off Earth entirely.  Why Planet Labs founder Will Marshall believes satellites and AI are converging into what he calls “planetary intelligence.”  Why the real driver of the space boom wasn’t just rocket technology, but the smartphone revolution and the miniaturization of electronics.  How commercial satellite imagery exposed Russia’s invasion buildup before the war in Ukraine, including the discovery of a pontoon bridge on the Belarus border.  Why AI is making satellite data dramatically more valuable by allowing models to analyze satellite images in real time rather than having to send individual images back to Earth.  Whether orbital compute infrastructure could expand the space economy by a factor of ten, and reshape the balance of geopolitical and corporate power.  The idea of “large Earth models”—AI systems trained not on the text of the internet, but on continuous visual data from the physical world.  Why tech leaders increasingly believe AI data centers could move into orbit, powered by uninterrupted solar energy in space.  How falling launch costs from companies like SpaceX could make space-based computing economically viable within the next decade.   Mentioned on the Episode:   “Planet Successfully Runs AI in Space,” Planet   “Thales Alenia Space Reveals Results of ASCEND Feasibility Study On Space Data Centers,” Thales Alenia Space   “Is AI Putting Graduates Out of Work Already?,” The Economist   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
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  Trump-Xi + Mutually Assured Disruption + Boeing, Beef, and Beans 12.05.2026 53min

  President Donald Trump is set to meet with Xi Jinping in Beijing for a high-stakes summit shaped by Iran war tensions, trade disputes, critical mineral flows, semiconductor controls, and an intensifying AI race. This episode breaks down the growing U.S.-China rivalry, the risks facing global markets and supply chains, and whether the world is entering a new era of economic fragmentation and technological competition.   Hosts:   Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   We discuss:  How President Trump’s high-stakes summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping comes at a moment of intense rivalry over AI, trade, semiconductors, and Taiwan. How the United States and China are locked into “mutually assured disruption” when it comes to trade, with China controlling critical rare-earth minerals and the U.S. restricting advanced AI chip exports. As Rebecca Patterson puts it: “If there’s not a happy hug between Trump and Xi on rare-earth minerals and chips, that might be problematic.” Whether Chinese AI firms like DeepSeek are catching up to American companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic despite U.S. semiconductor restrictions. The growing debate over AI safety and whether Washington and Beijing can cooperate on preventing dangerous applications of artificial intelligence while still competing for dominance. Why Taiwan remains the single biggest geopolitical risk hanging over global markets, semiconductor supply chains, and the future of the AI economy. How fears of a Taiwan crisis could ripple through global stock markets, especially tech and semiconductor companies tied to firms like TSMC, Nvidia, Intel, and Samsung. Why tariffs and supply chain disruptions continue to reshape global trade, with companies and governments from Europe to Southeast Asia forced to navigate a more fragmented global economy.   Mentioned on the Episode:   “At the Trump-Xi Summit, China Will Have the Upper Hand,” CFR.org   Chris McGuire, “How Trump Should Approach AI Talks With China: Targeted Dialogue, Maximum Pressure,” CFR.org   “Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI),” Federal Reserve Bank of New York   Ryan Mancini, “Trump’s Approval on Economy Hits New Low; 7 in 10 Expect Recession Next Year: Poll,” The Hill   Xinyi Wu, “China, Indonesia Launch Cross-Border QR Payments – A Boost for the Global Yuan?,” South China Morning Post   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.