The Dividend Cafe

Jaksot

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  Tuesday - September 15, 2026 15.09.2026 9min

  Brian Szytel reviews a down market day driven by oil staying above $100 (Brent 108, WTI 105), ongoing Middle East tensions, and the 10-year Treasury closing near 5%, noting equities are only a few percent off highs. Using an S&P 500 forward earnings estimate of about $406/share next year, he argues a 5% pullback implies ~17.5x forward earnings and a 10% drawdown ~16.6x—normal moves that would still look reasonable given expected double-digit earnings growth and a more tech-heavy index. He contrasts today’s resilience with 2023’s 5% yield episode when markets fell and credit spreads widened, saying spreads remain orderly. Ahead of the FOMC, markets price a 25 bp hike; he doubts bigger moves. He addresses weak 20-year auction headlines and explains that despite large AI-driven corporate issuance (hyperscalers spending $300–$400B; ~$2.4T total corporate issuance), pensions and insurers still strongly demand long-dated Treasuries. 00:00 Market Backdrop Today 00:44 Earnings And Valuation Math 02:27 Why Markets Stay Resilient 04:23 Fed Day And Bond Auction 05:08 AI Debt Versus Treasuries 07:16 Data Check And Wrap Up Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
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  Monday - September 14, 2026 14.09.2026 15min

  Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4dB7zsq David Bahnsen hosts the Monday Dividend Cafe from the Newport Beach studio, recaps the show’s weekly content cadence, and reviews a relatively calm market day after a volatile weekend. Nasdaq and S&P finished down about 0.5% with semiconductors down 5.6%, tied to a weekend letter from Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei urging major AI labs to slow development and seek regulation, with support from Elon Musk, Sam Altman, and Google’s AI leadership. Bahnsen notes heightened volatility, a brief 10-year yield move above 5%, and sector performance led by communication services while technology lagged. He says credit spreads remain benign but will be key to watch. He covers August CPI (0.4% headline, 0.3% core), elevated PPI (5.4% y/y), tanker shipping up ~300% amid Red Sea/Strait of Hormuz disruptions, cooling housing markets, the Fed meeting with an 86% implied hike probability, and WTI crude above $100 after a Saudi pipeline shutdown. 00:00 Welcome Back Monday 01:08 Program Cadence Explained 03:24 Market Selloff Recap 04:30 Anthropic AI Warning 07:28 Volatility and Credit Signals 09:05 Policy and AI Regulation 09:45 Inflation CPI and PPI 10:55 Shipping and Housing Cooling 12:04 Fed Meeting Rate Decision 13:18 Oil Surge and Wrap Up Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
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  Thursday - September 10, 2026 10.09.2026 12min

  Brian Szytel reports another broad market decline (Dow -316, S&P 500 -0.5%, Nasdaq -0.7%) alongside a sharp oil rally (WTI ~+7% to $102; Brent $107), with oil up about 20% over the past week and a half amid Middle East tensions and threats to key Red Sea chokepoints including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Markets are focused on CPI ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting, with discussion of a roughly 70% chance of a rate hike and political pressure from upcoming midterms; he frames possible policy levels using core PCE (3.3%) and current fed funds (3.50–3.75%). He cautions against trading headlines and says rate moves are being sensationalized versus 2000. He also discusses tariffs as generally inferior to free markets, often retaliatory and effectively a consumption tax, but sometimes justified for national security or to counter unfair foreign policies. PPI and jobless claims were benign and in line. 00:00 Market Wrap and Oil Spike 01:08 CPI Preview and Fed Bets 02:40 Core PCE and Terminal Rate Math 04:52 Why Not to Trade the Noise 05:23 2000 Bubble Comparisons 06:57 Bull Markets and Fed Risk 07:28 Tariffs Explained Pros and Cons 10:03 PPI Claims and Closing Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
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  What 9/11 Meant and Still Means for Investors 11.09.2026 23min

  Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4ioMZyT On September 11, 2026, David Bahnsen marks the 25th anniversary of 9/11 with reflections as an investor, an American, and a person, focusing mainly on market lessons. He notes the S&P 500 was already down about 30% from its 2000 high before 9/11 amid falling earnings and a valuation re-rating, then reviews how markets closed for four days and fell sharply upon reopening, with about $1.5 trillion in market value lost that week. Bahnsen argues 9/11’s enduring investor lesson is not generic “markets recover,” but that markets adapt because human innovation and resilience reassert themselves, with U.S. equities up about 1,100% since. He also recalls post-9/11 national unity as diminished today, shares his personal experience as a newlywed facing career uncertainty, and recommends the 9/11 Museum while emphasizing remembrance. 00:00 9/11 Anniversary Intro 02:10 Why 9/11 Matters Investors 03:26 Markets Before the Attacks 05:26 Trading Halt and Reopen 09:28 Recovery Was Not Different 11:39 Human Nature Drives Markets 15:21 National Unity Then Now 17:41 Personal Life Lessons 20:58 Never Forget Closing Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
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  Wednesday - September 9, 2026 09.09.2026 9min

  Brian Szytel reports a third straight market decline (Dow -405, S&P -0.5%, Nasdaq -0.7%) alongside falling bond prices and a 10-year yield up 5 bps to 4.84%, noting Treasury talk of increasing long-bond buybacks to $6B is too small versus ~$5.5T of long debt and was met by higher yields. He walks through a hypothetical of refinancing all long-term debt with T-bills, which could flatten the curve but would push short rates up, remove long-duration supply, and make U.S. financing resemble an emerging market, undermining the Fed and increasing fiscal sensitivity and inflation premiums. He notes T-bills are ~22% of issuance vs a ~15–20% target. He discusses Japan and Europe’s zero/negative-rate policies often producing unintended outcomes (carry trades, deleveraging, higher saving). No major data today; PPI tomorrow and CPI Friday. 00:00 Market Close Recap 00:33 Treasury Buyback Buzz 01:57 Yield Curve Control Limits 03:20 Why Borrowing Long Matters 04:13 Fed Mandate And Inflation Risk 05:16 Japan Zero Rate Lessons 06:33 Europe Negative Rate Backfire 07:18 Wrap Up And Data Ahead Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
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  Tuesday - September 8, 2026 08.09.2026 6min

  Brian Szytel reviews a down day in markets after Labor Day, noting the Dow fell 628 points while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also declined, though the Dow remains up over 10% year-to-date. Oil prices rose (WTI near $93.6, Brent near $98) amid heightened US-Iran/Middle East tensions, lifting inflation expectations and interest rates and raising concern about energy as a consumption “tax.” He highlights NFIB small business optimism at 98.7 and points to Friday’s CPI as the key market-moving event. He discusses the strong nonfarm payrolls report (162,000 vs. ~58,000 expected) alongside discrepancies with private payroll measures, with unemployment around 4.1% and the Fed seen as having a ~60% chance of a September hike amid a split committee and upcoming midterms. He also addresses client concerns about the Hugging Face incident and argues AI will both strengthen and intensify cybersecurity threats, with costs ultimately passed to consumers. 00:00 Market Wrap Kickoff 00:38 Oil Spike And Inflation 01:13 Key Data And CPI Watch 01:38 Jobs Report Breakdown 02:51 Fed Rate Hike Odds 03:28 Cybersecurity And AI Risks 04:47 Closing Thanks Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
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  The Real AI Problem Made Simple 04.09.2026 30min

  Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4hbt99a This special edition of The Dividend Cafe argues that the key issue investors are missing in the AI story is not AI’s usefulness but whether massive AI infrastructure spending will earn an adequate return on invested capital. The episode highlights how major tech firms are raising unprecedented debt and equity—despite strong earnings—because free cash flow is falling or turning negative under enormous AI compute and data center CapEx. It notes high customer concentration and interconnectivity across the ecosystem, including Nvidia’s revenue reliance on three customers and AI labs’ heavy dependence on a small share of customers, alongside purchase commitments far exceeding current revenues. The central risk, the host argues, is whether capital markets continue funding the buildout and on what terms before profitable utilization arrives. 00:00 Welcome to Dividend Cafe 00:58 AI Everywhere Now 04:02 The Missing Investor Issue 06:16 Capex Funding Frenzy 07:59 Earnings Up Cashflow Down 09:44 Off Balance Sheet Reality 12:14 Why AI Economics Flip SaaS 16:28 Unknowns Behind Monetization 19:11 Return on Capital Question 20:58 Capex Bubble Spillover Risk 22:50 Concentration and Connectivity 24:10 Capital Markets Are The Gate 28:32 Wrap Up and Disclosures Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
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  Thursday - September 3, 2026 03.09.2026 8min

  Brian Szytel recaps a strong Thursday rally in risk assets after a modestly positive prior session, citing improved market breadth, dovish comments from Fed Governor Waller, slightly lower rates, and reduced September hike odds from 68% to 50/50 amid a split committee, easing inflation, and a normalizing labor market; he also notes political sensitivity ahead of November midterms. The Dow rose 624 points, the S&P 500 gained 1%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.4%, with strength in mega-cap tech and semis. He highlights wide sector dispersion (88% of financials above the 200-day vs. 94% of semis down 20% from highs), low volatility and shallow drawdowns, and historically positive 12-month periods after midterms. Economic data were solid: jobless claims 206K, ISM services 55.4, and a slightly narrower July trade deficit. He addresses a question on Trump Media’s Truth API, arguing it’s ethically questionable but not a major market needle-mover for long-term investors, and signs off ahead of Labor Day weekend. 00:00 Market Rally Recap 00:26 Fed Talk and Rate Odds 02:30 Sector Dispersion Signals 03:04 Volatility and Midterm Patterns 04:28 Economic Data Scorecard 05:00 Truth API and Trading Edge 06:53 Wrap Up and Weekend Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
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  Wednesday - September 2, 2026 02.09.2026 6min

  Brian Szytel recaps a modest market rebound after three down equity sessions, with weak internals and low volume as investors await Friday’s non-farm payrolls and next week’s CPI. The Dow rose 295 points, the S&P 500 gained 35 points (nearly 0.5%), and the Nasdaq added about 0.4%; rates were largely unchanged with the 10-year near 4.78, oil held around $90 WTI, and the yield curve remained steeper than recent periods. Economic data were mixed: ADP private payrolls missed slightly (38K vs. 47K expected) while July factory orders rose 0.9%. He then addresses whether buying back one’s own debt is intrinsically wrong, arguing it’s virtuous for individuals paying off loans, but for countries it often reflects refinancing via central bank actions (e.g., QE), which can support liquidity yet distort markets if done excessively. 00:00 Market Rebound Overview 00:24 Key Data Ahead 00:52 Rates Oil And Internals 01:16 Today Economic Prints 01:43 Debt Buyback Question 01:56 Personal Debt Payoff 02:21 Central Bank Mechanics 02:53 QE And Yield Curve Effects 04:05 When It Goes Too Far 04:43 Closing Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
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  Tuesday - September 1, 2026 01.09.2026 8min

  Brian Szytel recaps a down market day driven by heightened Iran-U.S. tensions, higher oil prices (WTI up 5.9% near $90; Brent near $95), and rising interest rates (10-year around 4.79%), with the Dow down 419 points, S&P 500 down 0.7%, and Nasdaq down 1% as long-duration assets weakened. Economic data was slightly below forecasts but still constructive, including 7.2 million job openings and an ISM manufacturing PMI of 54.6 (eighth month above 50). He notes a gap between Fed dot-plot projections and futures-implied rate paths and emphasizes how unreliable rate forecasts can be given policy lags. Addressing questions about foreign Treasury selling (China and Japan), he explains foreign ownership has fluctuated historically and argues the core issue is U.S. deficit spending and rising debt costs, while the dollar’s basket weight recently increased to 43%. 00:00 September Market Recap 00:24 Oil Spike and Rates Jump 01:13 Stocks Slide and Rotation 01:45 Economic Data Check 02:23 Fed Dots Versus Futures 03:07 Why Rate Forecasts Miss 04:11 Foreign Treasury Holders 06:06 Dollar Basket and Deficits 06:38 Wrap Up and Q&A Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
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  Monday - August 31, 2026 31.08.2026 13min

  Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4cPVI9C David Bahnsen recaps Monday market action (Dow -374, S&P -0.33%, Nasdaq -0.12%; 10-year yield 4.76% up 3 bps), with energy leading on oil up 3% to about $86 and communication services lagging. He briefly shares midterm Senate race dynamics based on conversations with analysts, noting multiple paths for Democrats to win or lose the majority and warning against overconfidence in political predictions. Housing data showed August national median rent up 0.1% and down 0.8% year-over-year. He reviews Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech emphasizing price stability over employment, asserting a healthy labor market, concern about inflation, and a firm 2% target; markets raised implied September hike odds from ~38% to ~60% and to ~88% for a hike by year-end. Warsh discussed productivity questions (including AI), tight credit spreads, repudiated forward guidance with a “hall of mirrors” analogy, and delivered a cordial, potentially consensus-building tone. Bahnsen also notes a reported 35% U.S. government stake in a Venezuela oil venture with no short-term price impact, and that since 1950 September midterm years were evenly split between up and down markets. 00:00 Welcome and Agenda 01:05 Market Snapshot 02:13 Midterm Election Outlook 05:32 Housing and Rent Update 05:47 Jackson Hole Fed Takeaways 07:02 Rate Hike Odds and Targets 09:00 Forward Guidance and Consensus 11:25 Oil Moves and Venezuela Deal 12:06 September Midterm Seasonality 12:39 Closing and Next Episode Tease Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
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  Profit from the Profit Part 2 28.08.2026 27min

  Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3UKOOfH David Bahnsen hosts the final Friday Dividend Cafe of August as a part two discussion tied to his new book, "Profit for the Profit," outlining the philosophy and application of dividend growth investing and responding to common critiques. He argues investors should seek returns from the underlying profit-making enterprise rather than sentiment-driven momentum, and that dividend growth helps focus on individual company profits and reduces emotional extremes. He addresses five objections: buybacks as superior capital return (unreliable, often suspended, and frequently offset by share issuance); dividends as tax-inefficient (many accounts aren’t taxable, and dividends can improve behavior versus large embedded gains); dividends making companies “poorer” (stewardship and reinvestment choice matter); Berkshire not paying dividends (it receives dividends as a holding company); and dividends being only for retirees (starting earlier captures yield-on-cost compounding). 00:00 Welcome and Book Launch 03:08 Why Dividend Growth Matters 06:59 Common Critiques Overview 08:35 Buybacks Versus Dividends 13:17 Dividends and Taxes 15:32 Does Paying Dividends Reduce Value 19:31 The Berkshire Dividend Myth 20:57 Dividend Growth for Young Investors 24:19 Closing Thoughts and Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
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  Thursday - August 27, 2026 27.08.2026 7min

  Brian Szytel recaps Thursday, August 27 markets, highlighting a major AI chip company’s better-than-expected earnings and sharply higher 2028 guidance that lifted its stock 10% and pushed all three major indices higher, led by the Nasdaq, while bonds were flat with the 10-year at 4.67% and WTI oil up about 2% near $83. Economic updates included better-than-expected initial jobless claims (203k vs. 208k) and a wider July goods trade deficit of $118 billion, which he frames within the dollar-based reserve system. He also discusses US-Canada tariff tensions, arguing trade wars are zero-sum and ultimately hurt consumers and the economy. Addressing low S&P 500 dividend yield concerns, he says the decline is largely price-driven and maintains confidence in dividend growth investing focused on efficient capital use, including dividends and buybacks. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 00:24 AI Earnings Lift Markets 01:08 Rates Oil and Data 02:00 Trade Deficit Explained 03:02 Tariffs and Trade Wars 03:44 Dividend Yield Concerns 04:06 Why Dividends Still Win 05:40 Wrap Up and Disclosures Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
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  Wednesday - August 26, 2026 26.08.2026 8min

  Brian Szytel reports markets were essentially flat, while bonds moved as the 10-year yield rose 3 bps to 4.66; oil was slightly lower amid ongoing Strait of Hormuz deal talk. Economic data was mostly positive, but headline PCE was 0.3 vs 0.2 expected (3.7% YoY) while core PCE matched expectations at 0.2 (3.3% YoY), lifting Fed futures to a 40% chance of a September hike, which he views as largely a token 25 bps timing debate into Q4. He previews Jackson Hole and Fed hawk Warsh, focusing on potential balance-sheet discussion amid Treasury plans to issue more short-term debt and buy back about $4B long-term. A listener question prompts discussion of debt absorption, real yields, overindebtedness as deflationary, and currency depreciation as a release valve, citing Japan’s weakening yen alongside rising JGB yields. Other data: durable goods 1.1% vs 0.5%, personal income 0.4% vs 0.2%, spending 0.2, and Q2 GDP unchanged at 1.5% with nominal GDP in the 6s. 00:00 Market Wrap Overview 00:25 Bonds Oil Geopolitics 00:55 PCE Inflation Update 01:38 Fed Hike Odds 02:06 Jackson Hole Treasury Moves 03:09 Balance Sheet QT Talk 04:04 Debt Issuance Explained 05:16 Japan Yen Release Valve 06:04 Other Economic Data 06:45 GDP And Closing Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
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  Tuesday - August 25, 2026 25.08.2026 8min

  Brian Szytel recaps a positive market day with the Dow up about 160 points, the S&P up roughly a third of a percent, and the Nasdaq up two-thirds as rates fell (10-year down seven basis points to 4.63) and oil dropped about 4.5%, aiding a tech and semiconductor/AI rotation. Economic data came in weaker, including slightly lower consumer confidence, softer new home sales, and a weaker Richmond Fed manufacturing index, reinforcing macro-driven moves. He notes the S&P is up about 12% YTD while earnings rose around 15–16%, leading to multiple contraction to about 18.8x forward earnings, though other valuation measures (EV/sales, Shiller CAPE, price-to-book/sales, and price-to-free-cash-flow) remain near historically overvalued levels. He also addresses declining prime-age male labor participation and argues immigration trends show little correlation, pointing instead to broader societal and economic factors. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 00:18 Market Rally Recap 00:41 Rates Oil and Data 01:50 Earnings and Multiples 02:44 Valuation Reality Check 03:28 Rotation to Value 04:04 Labor Force Demographics 06:13 Wrap Up and Disclosures Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
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  Monday - August 24, 2026 24.08.2026 18min

  Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3U6PdsL David Bahnsen opens from The Bahnsen Group’s new Santa Barbara (Montecito) office, briefly recaps markets (Dow up ~0.25%, S&P down ~0.25%, Nasdaq down ~0.75% led by semiconductors; staples and financials up, tech down), and argues recent 10-year yield trading has been relatively range-bound. He focuses on Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s announced 30-year Treasury buybacks ($2B now, potentially $4B in September) aimed at lowering long-end rates and term premium, likening it to an “Operation Twist” style intervention. Bahnsen says the move briefly lowered the 30-year yield about 10 bps but largely failed and is unlikely to work long term, criticizing government attempts to override market price discovery. He attributes higher long yields mainly to 30-year market illiquidity and new competing long-dated issuance from AI hyperscalers. He also covers U.S.-Canada tariff threats and retaliation, upcoming data/events (PCE, durable goods, Nvidia earnings, Warsh at Jackson Hole), WTI down ~2.5% near $85, and promotes his new book, “Profit from the Prophet,” releasing tomorrow. 00:00 Welcome From Montecito 01:06 Market Snapshot Today 01:38 Is Bond Volatility Overstated 02:58 Treasury Buyback Plan Explained 05:53 Did It Work Short Term 06:59 Can It Work Long Term 07:55 Why Long Yields Rose 12:05 Concerns About Intervention 13:52 Tariffs Canada Trade Spat 15:30 Week Ahead Data And Jackson Hole 16:27 Book Launch And Wrap Up Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
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  Profit from the Profit Part 1 21.08.2026 20min

  Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4cNKVg3 David Bahnsen hosts the Friday Dividend Cafe from Southern California and previews his new book, Profit from the Profit, releasing Tuesday, explaining it reflects the same message he has shared weekly since starting the commentary during the September 2008 financial crisis and later branding it Dividend Cafe in 2015. He outlines an investment philosophy focused on connecting client outcomes to real business profits and prioritizing what companies do over market sentiment, arguing dividend growth investing seeks sustainable returns from company cash flows and dividends rather than relying on investor psychology. Bahnsen explains why he discusses macro headlines even though he avoids frequent portfolio changes, emphasizing a bottom-up approach intended to be insulated from news. He recounts learning these lessons after the dot-com bust and highlights dividend growth’s withdrawal and accumulation benefits, with upcoming book topics including taxes, volatility, and how investors should profit from profits via durable dividends. 00:00 Welcome and Book Launch 01:04 How Dividend Cafe Began 03:03 Core Philosophy of Profits 06:12 Sentiment Versus Fundamentals 09:22 News Commentary Without Trading 11:59 Personal Journey to Dividends 15:13 Key Themes From the New Book 17:01 Closing Thanks and Commitment Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
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  Thursday - August 20, 2026 20.08.2026 7min

  Brian Szytel reviews a down day in markets (Dow -703, S&P -0.8%, Nasdaq -1%) and notes blue-chip weakness despite better-than-expected earnings, attributing it to consumer budget pressure from higher energy prices. He discusses yield-curve moves with short-end yields rising more than the long end after Treasury talk of buying back longer-dated bonds funded by T-bills, framing it largely as signaling with political relevance to midterms, gas prices, and housing affordability tied to long rates. He previews Jackson Hole as unlikely to deliver major Fed guidance and highlights strong data including the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (47.4 vs. 25 expected) and slightly better initial jobless claims (206 vs. 210). He answers a viewer question on inflation-proofing dividend returns, emphasizing dividend growth stocks whose rising cash flows can outpace inflation and compound over time. 00:00 Market Wrap Overview 00:21 Consumer Strain Signals 01:05 Yield Curve Moves 01:12 Treasury Buyback Politics 02:03 Jackson Hole Preview 02:26 Economic Data Highlights 03:06 Rates and Growth Context 03:33 Inflation Proof Dividends 04:06 Dividend Growth Math 05:03 Closing and Weekend Signoff Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
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  Wednesday - August 19, 2026 19.08.2026 7min

  Brian Szytel reviews a rotation-heavy market day with the Dow up 120 points, the S&P 500 up about 0.25%, and the Nasdaq slightly higher, as equal-weight outperformed cap-weighted amid big moves in pharma and some late earnings from tech/AI. Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year down 7 bps to about 4.64%, following remarks from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent about shifting issuance toward the short end and using it to buy back some long-end debt; while the $20B buyback is small versus the $5T in 20–30 year Treasuries, the signal suggests an effort to lower long-term rates, potentially at odds with a Fed under Warsh aiming to let markets tighten or loosen. He also explains Japan’s debt dynamics: while gross debt/GDP is ~240%, netting BOJ holdings and government assets brings it closer to ~80%, though higher JGB rates could raise debt-service costs and pressure the yen and BOJ policy. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 00:21 Market Close Recap 00:56 Treasury Buyback Shock 01:58 Fed Versus Treasury 03:46 Japan Debt Question 04:07 Net Debt Breakdown 05:06 Rates Yen and BOJ 06:11 Wrap Up and Disclosures Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
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  Tuesday - August 18, 2026 18.08.2026 7min

  Brian Szytel recaps a modest down day in markets with the Dow down 116 points, S&P 500 down 0.7%, and Nasdaq down 1.3%, noting S&P advancers outnumbered decliners and equal-weight outperformed cap-weighted in a rotation toward value; the 10-year Treasury closed near 4.71%. Economic data was mixed: pending home sales fell 2.3% versus an expected 0.6% gain, housing starts missed at 1.2 million versus 1.3 million expected, import prices fell 0.4% versus an expected 0.1% rise, and industrial production came in at 0.2% versus 0.4% expected. He argues media “doomsdayism” about higher long-end yields overlooks longer-term context, with 30-year yields around 5.3% being normal historically, while acknowledging deficit and debt risks and linking higher growth to higher yields. He also cautions that CEO insider buying is only one data point and not a standalone investment thesis, emphasizing bottom-up fundamental analysis. 00:00 Market Wrap Intro 01:04 Housing Data Misses 01:41 Inflation and Production 02:12 Bond Yields Perspective 02:49 Debt Fears and Growth 04:21 Insider Buying Reality 05:11 Fundamentals Over Tips 05:26 Closing and Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com