The Risk Takers Podcast

Jaksot

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  World Cup, NFL Predictions, State of Industry & Identifying Rec Flow | Ep 165 22.07.2026 2t 20min

  This week we have a Q&A extravaganza. 42 questions were asked on Twitter - and we get through all of them besides 2 golf questions that one of the hosts decided to cut out (not naming names). News includes someone gaming the mysterious world cup PM sponsor, ADI Predictstreet & an ice cream shop "hedging" on Kalshi. Substack Mentioned: https://pmpulse.substack.com/ 0:00 Q&A Round 1 52:15 News 1:24:30 Q&A Round 2 Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional spo...
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  "The Most Pure Form of Betting" Horse Racing w/ Dennis Montoro | Ep 164 15.07.2026 2t 7min

  This week we are joined by professional horse bettor Dennis Montoro (https://x.com/dennycaps1) about all things horse betting. Denny explains why getting a good fair is only one of the important modeling problems in horse racing and a lot of general advice on how to win at peer to peer games. 0:00 Intro 15:30 Pari-mutuel Betting 51:00 Rebates & CAWs 1:14:10 Modelling Horse Racing 1:37:00 Listener Q&A Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilli...
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  Non-Technical Traits All Top Bettors Have & ENG v. MEX | Ep 163 08.07.2026 1t 50min

  The news almost becomes the main topic in this episode, where GP and SP breakdown the record breaking England v. Mexico World Cup game that did most likely over a billion dollars of volume between all markets. The main topic is a look into what non-technical traits are near-universal amongst top bettors. 0:00 Traits of Top Bettors 28:30 News 1:11:00 Q&A Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podc...
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  Sharp Taker EvenSteven Talks About Maxing Efficiency | Ep 162 01.07.2026 1t 56min

  Today on the show we are joined by EvenSteven (https://x.com/evenstevengg) - a sports bettor with seven-figures of profit on prediction markets. Steven talks about why most top down bettors shouldn't try to originate or market make, how to analyze live trading data to find edge, and what is the most important skill a live taker can have. 0:00 Sports Betting 30:30 Prediction Markets 1:10:30 Q&A Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (Golden...
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  World Cup Betting Including GPs Biggest Loss of All Time | Ep 161 24.06.2026 2t 13min

  This episode SP and GP get into the first World Cup on Prediction Markets. The insanity of this world cup has surpassed our wildest expectations and we discuss what makes it unlike anything we have ever seen before. Big news and a lot of questions follow - enjoy! 0:00 First World Cup on Prediction Markets 36:00 News 1:04:30 Q&A Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting edu...
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  From DFS Crusher to "Fantasy Football for Rich Kids" (Venture Capital) w/ James G | Ep 160 18.06.2026 1t 51min

  Today GP and SP talk to James Gettinger, founding partner of Gutter Capital - one of the top preforming VC funds in the world. Why is James on our podcast you might ask? Well, before venture capital, James was one of the most profitable Daily Fantasy Sports players of all time. He pioneered contest simulations and was a first mover in many strategies that now are common amongst the best players. That ability to make the plays conventional wisdom says are stupid not only made him millions in D...
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  Dead Bottom-Up Edges and SPs Triumphant Return | Ep 159 10.06.2026 2t 6min

  First we welcome SP back to the podcast and he shares some exciting life news that explains his absence last week. Then SP and GP both give an example of an originating edge that they had at some point - not shocking that the "sports" are Golf and League of Legends. Big news week and some great questions follow. 0:00 Dead Originating Edges 33:10 News 1:17:30 Questions Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProje...
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  Who Does AI Help in Sports Betting (PeanutBettor Guest Host) | Ep 158 04.06.2026 2t 21min

  This week SP is AFK so we get Mr. PeanutBettor to sub in as a guest host. We cover who we think will be most helped by AI along with a lot of news and great questions. Clearly SP holds the show together because this went off the rails and became the longest episode yet. 00:00 AI in Sports Betting 40:30 News 1:13:30 Q&A Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education a...
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  What Sportsbooks Can Teach You About Market Making & Kalish v. Kalshi | Ep 157 27.05.2026 2t 25min

  This week we kick it off with some lessons we learned retroactively from sportsbooks after we started market making on prediction markets. Then we cover the news - including the Matt Kalish v. Kalshi saga that is still going strong 2 weeks in. Then we hit one of the longest Q&As in history to clear our backlog of questions! 0:00 What Sportsbooks Got Right 25:30 News 1:14:00 Q&A Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and ...
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  Why the Edge in RFQs isn't the Pricing w/ TroyCuban | Ep 156 20.05.2026 1t 52min

  This week SP and GP are joined by Troy (https://x.com/troycuban) to talk about how he has made over $700k on Kalshi this year despite never originating a bet in his life. Troy is slightly different than our typical guest (only slightly) in that he comes from a traditional finance background and now only does RFQs full time. This could be the deepest dive recorded into the most important market on Kalshi! 0:00 Intro to Sports Betting 29:00 Everything RFQs 1:19:00 Listener Q&A Welcome to ...
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  Managing Risk Hidden Risk on Prediction Markets | Ep 155 13.05.2026 2t 6min

  Record breaking episode for most questions asked - if you asked a question and we didn't get to it, it's because this episode would have been 4 hours and we will answer on our next solo show. Today SP and GP talk about the non-obvious risks on prediction markets. As bettors we all are aware of bankroll management and betsizing tools like Kelly. But in this new world, there are more threats to your bankroll looming around every corner and being defensive is the game. We touch on FanDuel and ...
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  Million Dollar Manual Trading w/ Clay Alter | Ep 154 06.05.2026 2t 8min

  Today we interview Clay Alter (ClayA on Kalshi) about his start in sports betting and recent rise up the Kalshi leaderboard. Clay shocks SP and GP when he says he manages his orders fully from the orders tab on the Kalshi UI. Possibly the most manual trader we have had on and he's crossed $1.5 million in profits in 8 months on Kalshi. A great reminder that there are many ways to do it! Follow Clay on twitter: https://x.com/alter_clay 0:00 Intro 13:00 Getting Started w/ Sports Betting 38:00 ...
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  How Complex do Models Need to be in 2026 & PM News Breaks Contain | Ep 153 29.04.2026 2t 9min

  Nerd alert. The main topic is a discussion on deterministic v. probabilistic models in the current betting environment. News includes the solider who bet on himself to capture a foreign leader and made $440k before getting arrested and a rant on the people complaining about FandDuels injury insurance. 0:00 Deterministic v. Stochastic Sports Models 26:00 News 1:05:15 Q&A Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and Spor...
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  Play Sports Betting on "Hard Mode" by Betting Main Lines w/ Justin | Ep 152 22.04.2026 2t 10min

  Today we are joined by Justin (https://x.com/LazyBrain64) - a professional basketball bettor who bets only mainlines. That's right - no NBA props! This is a guy who bets his opinion, has lots of manual inputs into his model, and is doing it in what most consider to be one of the toughest markets in the industry. Justin not only drops a lot of betting wisdom, but also life wisdom while he explains his thoughtful path that brought him to professional bettor in a sport that he is obsessed with. ...
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  Masters Recap & Returning to "Sharp Taking" | Ep 151 15.04.2026 2t 6min

  GP tries to get back in the good graces of the sharp taking community while talking about the Masters. SP walks through the golf betting model he spun up just in time for the biggest event of the year. Some news goes the prediction markets way and the boys discuss their favorite books in the questions. 0:00 MASTERS RECAP & QUESTIONS 53:30 News 1:14:30 Listener Q&A Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProje...
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  Which Path Should You Choose in Betting/PMs & Golf Tick Size | Ep 150 08.04.2026 1t 38min

  In this episode we outline paths for people of all skill levels in the new betting/ predicting ecosystem. GP continues his twitter rant on deci-cent pricing in golf, and the boys answer the rest of the listener questions they missed last episode. 0:00 PM paths for bettors of all skill levels 38:45 News 55:20 Deci-cent Pricing in Golf 1:08:00 Q&A Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the...
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  Bet Like a Lawyer & Lumberyard AP Strategy w/ Alex | Ep149 01.04.2026 2t 11min

  Today we welcome Alex to the podcast (https://x.com/Landtrader8375). In his first podcast appearance he tells us about leaving his 9 year career in law for full-time betting, how he comes to a hypothesis on big spots that is rarely "wrong", and many fun dead edges and AP shenanigans that include ending up selling lumber after trying to get into real estate. 0:00 Intro 19:15 First 1st down bet that launched his career 34:00 What it takes to be a "Rort" finder 53:30 "The Lumber Edge" 1:02:15 ...
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  Exactly How to Start your First Automated Trading Project + PM Doom & Gloom | Ep 148 25.03.2026 2t 9min

  This episode covers a lot of recent news, walks you through how to get started with automated API interaction and muses on would you rather have a beer w/ the PM doomers or evangelists? 0:00 What would your first API project be? 24:45 News (Worst two weeks in PMs?) 1:05:30 Q&A Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free ...
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  How to Make a Living Betting on What Someone is Going to Say w/ Foster| Ep 147 18.03.2026 2t 15min

  For months our podcast has neglected one of the most interesting segments of prediction markets - "Mention Markets". Well no longer! Today we interview Foster, one of the best mention market traders currently operating. He talks about building a database for Football announcers, pricing Trump's speeches, and some hilarious stories from the mention market trenches. Can't miss! Follow Foster on Twitter: https://x.com/Foster 0:00 Intro 3:15 Video Game Advantage play & Casino Work 11:00 Start...
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  A Sustainable Approach to Downswings (+RFQ IDs) | Ep 146 11.03.2026 1t 51min

  We get deep in our feelings in this episode. SP and GP talk about some of their worst downswings and how they have learned to handle them. A long discussion of the pros & cons of requester ids follows and then some great Q&A. 0:00 Downswings & Mixing Life + Betting 41:15 RFQ IDs: Should they be shown? 1:01:00 Rest of News 1:12:50 Q&A Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is t...