The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

Jaksot

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  Rabbit Season, Duck Season 14.09.2026 1t 4min

  Inside you are two wolves. One (Michael Every) looks at Washington and sees a plan. The other (Jacob) looks at the same info and sees chaos. Somewhere north of both is the sovereign nation of Canada - a country discovering what it actually costs to step away from Washington and forge out on its own. Is Carney brave or delusional? Does scale decide everything? When the polite fictions come down, what's left holding any of this together? Tune in for a real disagreement between people who like each other, both wolves get fed. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome and Setup(00:10) - Meet Michael Every(02:39) - Why This Debate(04:03) - Canada Opening Salvo(06:07) - Every on Strategy(10:15) - Canada EU China Options(16:20) - Sovereignty and Pain(21:44) - Defense Reality Check(27:15) - US Threat vs Russia(31:07) - US Security Red Lines(34:21) - Polling Turns on Canada(35:10) - Tariffs Without Strategy(35:41) - Japan and Korea Pushback(37:23) - Supply Chains Still China(37:48) - Defining Real Statecraft(38:18) - Macro Strategy Defense(41:36) - Tariffs and Dollar Overreach(43:53) - Trial and Error Governance(45:17) - Geopolitical Plays Venezuela Iran(48:06) - What Actually Comes Back(51:52) - Work Culture and Foundry Schools(52:55) - Rebuilding the Whole System(57:21) - Fear Moments and Next Steps(01:00:26) - Stablecoins and New Finance(01:02:26) - Scale Matters Canada vs US(01:03:15) - Closing and Where to Follow--Referenced in the Show:Michael Every - https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/our-experts/011085368/michael-every--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--
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  The $10 Trillion Ocean 07.09.2026 1t 6min

  The world has never been wealthier... but a warm patch of ocean in the Pacific is about to reorganize the weather across four continents and all that wealth still might not be enough to cover the damages. Climate scientist Justin Mankin studies how much these events actually cost - and his estimates run to $10 trillion or more in global economic loss over the next five years. Big numbers, short timeframe, scary outlook. But the hardest question that Dr. Mankin brought up with us wasn't about how we're gunna pay for all of this, it's about what gets lost when we measure disasters in GDP instead of lives. Do we want richer world or a better one?--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro(01:16) - Why El Niño Matters Now(02:47) - El Niño and IOD Explained(07:48) - Teleconnections and Predictability(09:47) - El Niño Life Cycle and Timing(11:53) - Defining Normal in Climate Data(14:39) - How El Niño Is Measured(22:19) - ONI vs RONI and Super El Niño Hype(26:59) - Drought Monitoring and Shifting Baselines(32:08) - How Gnarly Is El Niño(34:31) - Warming World Impacts(35:20) - Counting El Niño Costs(38:16) - El Niño to La Niña(39:12) - Springback Physics Explained(42:32) - Trillions in Damages(44:00) - Causal Inference Methods(50:09) - Conflict and Thresholds(01:00:03) - Five Year Outlook(01:05:42) - Closing and Credits--Referenced in the Show:Justin's Research - https://jsmankin.github.io/--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--
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  Boil the Frog 31.08.2026 1t 11min

  Scott Bessent knows something that we don't. Luke Gromen has spent his whole career reading the fine print of America's balance sheet, and his conclusion is stark: the quiet interventions coming out of Washington - doubled bond buybacks, a yen rescue, a sudden fondness for stablecoins - aren't policy. They're symptoms. The arithmetic of debt, entitlements, and interest has crossed a threshold from which, Gromen argues, there are only three exits, and none of them are painless. We've got a crisis hiding in plain sight - and someone is gunna end up paying for it.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro(00:21) - Past Episode Reflections(00:49) - Bitcoin and AI Disagreements(01:58) - Luke Returns to the Show(02:24) - Why Everything Feels Faster(03:52) - Bessent and Bond Buybacks(08:11) - True Interest Expense Alarm(15:00) - Is It a Crisis Yet(20:38) - Crisis Symptoms and Options(26:54) - Japan Treasury Selling Fears(29:06) - Allies Follow China Playbook(34:01) - Stablecoins and CLARITY Act(36:07) - No Silver Bullet(36:48) - Inflation Over Bonds(38:39) - Gold and Bitcoin Hedge(39:09) - No Currency Alternative(40:44) - China Gold Yuan System(43:33) - Gold as Neutral Reserve(48:31) - Multipolar Reserve Trap(50:32) - Zugzwang and Supply Chains(55:30) - Back to Gold Energy Link(01:01:08) - AI Boom Then Bust(01:04:00) - White Collar Disruption(01:10:37) - Closing Thoughts and Outro--Referenced in the Show:Forest For The Trees - https://fftt-llc.com/about/ --Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--
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  Pulped 24.08.2026 58min

  AI companies are buying up used books, scanning them, and destroying the originals. At least, that's the headline... the real story is weirder. Charlie Becker, a seventh-generation bookseller in Houston, went viral for tracing one of these mysterious bulk orders - following overlooked books into Amazon warehouses filled with entire categories of obscure human knowledge. Today we're taking the plunge into a mystery that spans artificial intelligence, culture, and the LTV of a "rare" book. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Episode setup and guest intro(01:22) - Mic check and welcome(02:01) - Viral post and lawsuit context(04:05) - Who is Charlie Becker(10:40) - Amazon warehouse mystery(13:02) - Which books are vanishing(16:28) - FBA arbitrage and pulping(18:53) - Amazon irony and AI layer(22:11) - ISBN gap and metadata tool(26:12) - Missing middle and preservation risk(28:36) - Used Bookstore Churn Myth(29:27) - Why Obscure Books Matter(30:33) - AI Is Not Retrieval(32:30) - Cookbook Chef Metaphor(33:51) - Smaller Models Personal Agents(34:38) - Houston Bookstore Renaissance(37:31) - Book Crawl Themed Shops(40:00) - Foreign Language Treasure Troves(46:06) - Estate Libraries Rare Finds(47:02) - Mystery Bulk Orders Explained(51:22) - Optimism And Preservation Tool(54:44) - Internet Slop Back To Bookstores(57:22) - Closing Thanks And Outro--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--
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  Cooler Heads Are Not Prevailing 11.08.2026 57min

  Jacob Shapiro welcomes back Peter Harrell, visiting scholar at Georgetown's Institute of International Economic Law and former White House senior director for international economics. Trump keeps finding new legal tools - including a forgotten 1930 law now aimed at Canada - and companies have stopped investing because they can't guess what comes next :/ Also, Washington has quietly bought stakes in 37 companies, with no rules and almost no transparency around any of it.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome and Setup(00:27) - Why Tariffs Matter Now(02:18) - Rapid Fire Tariff Tools(03:29) - Supreme Court Fallout(05:44) - Graham Sanctions Act(10:22) - Smoot Hawley Meets USMCA(11:35) - Canada Tariff Mechanics(15:49) - What Trump Wants(21:35) - USMCA Future Scenarios(23:47) - After Trump Trade Path(25:30) - Next President Tariff Reset(28:21) - Trade Policy Inflection(29:25) - Biden vs Trump Tariffs(30:45) - China Tariffs Reality(33:08) - Rules of Origin Loopholes(35:52) - Democrats China Debate(37:22) - Industrial Policy Needed(39:25) - Drones Case Study(44:14) - Manufacturing Culture Shift(48:29) - Investment Needs Certainty(50:41) - Government Equity Stakes(52:13) - Sovereign Wealth Concerns(56:03) - Wrap Up and Outro--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--
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  Lessons Learned - Geopolitical Cousins 31.07.2026 1t 27min

  Round two. Same four analysts, a lot more whiskey, and a lot less structure. Peter Zeihan, Marko Papic, and Matt Gertken sit back down with Jacob - a man who cut his teeth pestering all three of them for their pieces as a Stratfor intern - for an unfiltered conversation about how they actually became geopolitical strategists. They trade formative-moment stories from Stratfor's early-2000s "golden age" (including the Egypt/Mubarak call that made Jacob's career), debate whether corporate America can ever hire real geopolitical talent, and each name the one book that shaped how they see the world - from World War Z to Aristotle to The Ingenuity Gap. Along the way: George Friedman lore, the DC Comics-vs-Marvel theory of geopolitical shops, and a genuinely moving closing tribute to the mentor who built this whole coaching tree. Part reunion, part masterclass in how to think about the world - and part roast session.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome Back Round Two(00:52) - Whiskey And Loose Format(01:34) - Formative Stratfor Moments(02:24) - Arab Spring Cred Test(04:17) - Stratfor Coaching Tree(07:50) - Pipeline After Cold War(14:17) - Academia Versus Geopolitics(17:14) - Analyst Craft And Courage(20:22) - Chief Geopolitical Officer Debate(22:55) - Training Gap And Time Horizons(25:29) - Universities And MBA Reform(27:39) - Ideology And Groupthink(30:02) - Theory Versus Practice(30:57) - Frameworks Beat Facts(31:44) - Operationalizing Geopolitics(34:24) - Training Pipelines and MBAs(37:39) - Sector Specialists and Scale(40:01) - Everyone a Geostrategist(41:01) - Deglobalization in Fashion(42:51) - Formative Books Roundtable(51:07) - Great Men and Psychology(54:21) - Empathetic Analysis Explained(56:25) - Displacement and Perspective(58:23) - Formative Experiences Teaser(58:50) - Yugoslavia Falls Apart(59:15) - Tito Memories and Disillusion(59:58) - Conspiracies and Nihilism(01:01:23) - Identity in the Balkans(01:03:51) - Living With Uncertainty(01:04:39) - Midwest Roots and Leaving Home(01:06:18) - Can Places Change(01:07:32) - America as Debate Laboratory(01:10:22) - Learning to Write Analysis(01:14:39) - Chip on Shoulder Mindset(01:18:22) - Morality Versus Analysis(01:21:12) - Breaking Intellectual Chains(01:23:53) - Finding the Fulcrum Question(01:24:43) - Final Words and Gratitude--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
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  This Is The Way The World Ends (w/ Zeihan & Gertken) - Geopolitical Cousins 29.07.2026 1t 40min

  Sixteen years after last sharing a table together, four Stratfor alumni reunite for a wide-ranging conversation on the decade ahead. Jacob and Marko are joined by Peter Zeihan, and Matt Gertken to tackle three questions: How does the world end in the next 10 years? What core belief could each of us get wrong? And what's the least expected, most likely thing to happen next?The conversation ranges from deglobalization and collapsing oil supply chains to the demographic cliff facing the developed world, the odds of deflation versus inflation in the 2030s, and whether the global order ends up multipolar, bipolar, or unipolar. They also debate the odds of a US-China clash over Taiwan, and whether the nation-state can survive a coming showdown with the tech companies and billionaires who increasingly control critical infrastructure - including orbit.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome and Setup(02:05) - Reunion at the Table(03:11) - Episode Premise and Format(04:22) - Zeihan on Deglobalization(06:42) - Energy Shock Fallout(08:52) - Demographics and Demand Crash(11:03) - Deflation vs Inflation Debate(16:25) - Drone Warfare Dark Turn(18:21) - Semiconductors Reality Check(27:27) - Marco Goes Nuclear(30:10) - Russia Collapse Scenarios(33:18) - Nukes Spread and Ukraine Endgame(35:31) - Supply Chain Shockwaves(36:34) - Putin Hell Bar Joke(37:18) - Europe Expansion Debate(39:26) - EU Becomes Military Union(40:37) - Post Putin Chaos Risks(43:08) - Russian Elite Succession(44:27) - Civil War Nuclear Fear(47:34) - China Fills The Vacuum(52:26) - Taiwan Timeline Scenario(53:59) - Drones Nukes And Invasion(56:43) - Deterrence And Flashpoints(01:03:34) - China Demographics Clash(01:05:15) - Depopulation Not Disaster(01:06:14) - Black Plague Lessons(01:07:11) - Automation Versus Depopulation(01:07:22) - Japan China Depopulation Debate(01:09:31) - End of Nation State(01:11:18) - Shocks and State Capacity(01:12:04) - Broken World of More(01:13:07) - Knowledge Networks Collapse(01:14:31) - Affluence Feudalism Demand(01:16:51) - Brittle AI Chip Supply(01:21:39) - Ingenuity Gap Reversal(01:23:34) - Rapid Fire Predictions(01:35:47) - State Versus Tech Showdown(01:40:24) - Wrap and Break--Referenced in the Show:https://zeihan.com/--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--
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  Geography is Destiny: China, The Global South, & Energy 21.07.2026 1t 1min

  Eric Olander, editor-in-chief of the China Global South Project, joins the pod to discuss the developments on the other side of the globe. From Ho Chi Minh City, Eric explains how the Global South actually sees the US-Iran war, why nobody expects China to ride to anyone's rescue, and how Vietnam's tariff and energy shocks became a never-again moment. He and Jacob dig into the myth that tariffs can implode China, America's fading China literacy, and why the next order won't be Chinese-led - but China will be its transformational character.*Note: There are some weird buzzing sounds in the pod, we know! There was some sort of issue uploading the audio, we're on it.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro(00:46) - World Cup Travel Chaos(02:01) - Soccer Politics and Tensions(03:33) - Meet Eric Olander(05:32) - China’s Transformation Story(07:54) - Global South Views of China(10:26) - China as Daily Operating System(13:12) - Pew Poll Surprises Explained(14:10) - Southeast Asia vs Northeast Asia(17:32) - Why Philippines Aligns With US(20:10) - Japan Taiwan Flashpoint(21:15) - Supply Chains and Sea Lanes(23:36) - Japan Rearms for Post US Era(28:19) - Japan’s Regional Influence(30:38) - Japan as Counterbalance(32:04) - Drone Age Security Shift(33:05) - South China Sea Alarm(33:28) - Iran War Global South(38:37) - China Gains and Risks(40:46) - No Alliance Expectations(43:51) - ICBM Test Explained(47:40) - Decoupling and US Pragmatists(50:35) - People to People Breakdown(54:41) - China Blowing Europe Window(58:56) - Mutual Misunderstanding Finale(59:55) - Closing Thanks and Signoff--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--Mentioned in this episode:Check Out Future Hindsight!If you enjoy our podcast, check out our homies over at Future Hindsight! It's an award-winning weekly podcast that takes big ideas about civic life and democracy and turns them into action items for you and me. Learn more at www.futurehindsight.com/
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  Why Is China Bad at Soccer? 19.07.2026 1t 11min

  Jacob grabs Chris Branch, senior writer at The Athletic and author of The Pulse, to talk about the World Cup as geopolitics. They cover Trump's red-card intervention and the Balogun controversy, England-Argentina and the ghost of the Falklands, why sports and politics were never actually separate, and why China and India can barely qualify while Cape Verde runs wild. Plus: whether soccer ever truly takes hold in America, and why it might take a billionaire treating the sport like a Carnegie library to make it happen.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro(01:41) - In-Person Catch-Up(02:40) - Meet Chris Branch(03:28) - Why This World Cup Hit Different(05:09) - Sports Writing Meets Politics(07:11) - Fan Culture and National Rivalries(10:24) - FIFA Corruption and New Fans(14:03) - Picking a Premier League Team(15:16) - Can Soccer Catch On in America(17:49) - Why MLS Struggles(21:55) - Pay-to-Play and US Development(29:22) - Women’s Soccer and Global Gaps(33:47) - Trump, FIFA, and the Balogun Saga(35:29) - Red Card Controversy(36:25) - Iran Match Bad Karma(37:37) - Play Anyway Debate(42:22) - Sports as Common Ground(44:37) - Stars Politics and Fandom(56:10) - Money Youth Sports Future(01:04:53) - Closing Stories and Wrap--Referenced in the Show:The Pulse - https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/newsletters/the-pulse/--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--Mentioned in this episode:Check out Marketplace Morning Report!If you're enjoying the Jacob Shapiro Podcast, make sure to check out Marketplace's Morning Report! The team gives you the economy without the anxiety, in the amount of time it takes to brew a cup of coffee. Learn more at: www.marketplace.org/shows/marketplace-morning-reportCheck out Marketplace Morning Report!If you're enjoying the Jacob Shapiro Podcast, make sure to check out Marketplace's Morning Report! The team gives you the economy without the anxiety, in the amount of time it takes to brew a cup of coffee. Learn more at: www.marketplace.org/shows/marketplace-morning-report
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  Shipping for Dummies 14.07.2026 57min

  Jacob sits down with J Mintzmyer of Value Investors Edge for a shipping deep-dive (but of course it's a geopolitics lesson in disguise). Mintzmyer argues the industry has barely changed in eleven years, most of the efficiency gains, double hulls, eco-designed vessels, LNG boil-off fixes, were locked in over a decade ago, leaving only regulation to move the needle. The two dig into why the US lost shipbuilding to Japan, Korea, and now China, how the Jones Act complicates the picture, and why America's real shot at relevance lies in owning and financing vessels, not building them.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome and Setup(01:20) - Meet J Mintzmyer(02:38) - Shipping for Dummies(06:24) - How Shipping Demand Works(08:30) - Has Shipping Changed(16:48) - US Shipbuilding Decline(26:14) - Tonnage Tax Loophole(27:15) - Make US Shipping Competitive(27:54) - Finance Incentives Not Sanctions(28:56) - Why US Shipbuilding Lags(31:31) - China Shipbuilding Dominance(44:36) - Automation And Future Innovation--Referenced in the Show:Twitter: https://x.com/mintzmyerWebsite: www.vieresearch.comBox book: https://www.amazon.com/Box-Shipping-Container-Smaller-Economy/dp/0691170819Chinese automated shipyard (video): https://youtu.be/RXr03aRF_p8?si=1cjIBZaFeTTqhutD--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--Mentioned in this episode:Check out Marketplace Morning Report!If you're enjoying the Jacob Shapiro Podcast, make sure to check out Marketplace's Morning Report! The team gives you the economy without the anxiety, in the amount of time it takes to brew a cup of coffee. Learn more at: www.marketplace.org/shows/marketplace-morning-report
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  Frontlines: Ukraine, Iran, oil markets, and what the World Cup reveals about global politics 09.07.2026 50min

  Crosspost! Shaun Haney and Jacob use the global football tournament as a springboard to discuss nationalism, international institutions, and the role sport plays in bringing people together, while acknowledging that politics inevitably follows major global events.Shapiro says that international sporting events can provide valuable insight into broader geopolitical trends while also serving as a rare source of optimism.--Referenced in the Show:Frontlines: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wckZi7rZU3U--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--
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  Is The War Over? 02.07.2026 59min

  Hamidreza Azizi joins the show once more to ask a deceptively simple question: is the war over? Azizi argues the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) is deliberately vague and fully reversible - sanctions relief hinges on a phone call, the $300 billion investment fund is unfunded, and both Iran and the US are already renegotiating its terms through actions, not words. They dig into Iran's Strait of Hormuz fee gambit, China's calculated non-intervention, Turkey's regional rise, and 80% inflation battering Iran domestically. Azizi's verdict: Iran emerges more resilient, not more powerful, and... you'll have to listen to get the rest!--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro(00:49) - Book Timing and Relevance(03:49) - Is the War Over(05:23) - Iranian View of Ongoing War(11:23) - MOU Favorable to Iran(12:56) - MOU Details and Reversibility(18:48) - Strait of Hormuz Fee Debate(21:05) - Iran Strategy and Leverage Clock(27:57) - Regional Order in Transition(35:46) - China and Great Power Dynamics(42:46) - Turkey and Israel Threat Perception(46:10) - Iran Domestic Fallout and 60 Day Outlook--Referenced in the Show:Hamidreza's Substack - https://www.irananalytica.org/Hamidreza on X - https://x.com/HamidRezaAz--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--
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  The Cartel Math Isn't Mathing 22.06.2026 55min

  Jacob Shapiro sits down with Victor Hernandez, a Mexican national security analyst, to stress-test his own optimism about Mexico. Hernandez argues the army now runs eight ministries' budgets, can't out-spy the cartels, and may face limited US drone strikes Mexico has no way to resist. El Mencho's death looks more like an ambush than a victory. Nearshoring pencils out on a spreadsheet - until corruption and parallel taxation eat the margin. A bracing case for what happens if Jacob's wrong.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro and Framing(01:29) - Meet Victor Hernandez(02:44) - Victor Background and Career(05:00) - Army Trust and Corruption(07:38) - Blowback and Patriotism(10:25) - Morena and Military Power(15:29) - Future of Militarization(17:24) - Army vs Cartels Capabilities(22:26) - Will the US Intervene(26:26) - Drone Strikes Fallout(29:32) - Cuba Sequencing and Allies(33:04) - Trade Dependence and Diversification(39:45) - El Mencho and Cartel Fragmentation(44:14) - Investing and Nearshoring Risks(51:05) - What If Victor Is Wrong(54:24) - Closing and Outro--Referenced in the Show:Victor Hernandez - https://www.linkedin.com/in/v%C3%ADctor-hern%C3%A1ndez-979002b0?ILEES - https://www.ilees.mx/ --Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--
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  Crosspost: Frontlines "Hormuz to AI" 18.06.2026 41min

  You might not realize it, but Jacob also appears on a few other podcasts regularly! Jacob is a regular guest RealAgriculture’s Frontlines podcast, hosted by Shaun Hane. Shaun and Jacob discuss geopolitics from an agricultural lens, exploring how the world reacts to the extremely fine-tuned world of ag. Many analysts expected a prolonged disruption in the Strait to trigger severe economic fallout. Instead, oil prices have risen, inflation pressures have intensified, and shortages are emerging in some regions, yet markets remain resilient. Jacob argues that oil’s influence on the broader economy is no longer as dominant as it was during previous energy crises. Strategic reserves, alternative supply routes, and new infrastructure projects have helped cushion the impact, even as consumers face higher fuel and food costs. At the same time, he points to inflation as the political challenge that could ultimately shape U.S. policy. While employment numbers remain relatively strong, Jacob contends that household finances are under increasing pressure.--Referenced in the Show:Frontlines- https://www.realagriculture.com/2026/06/from-hormuz-to-ai-competing-forces-are-driving-the-global-economy-frontlines-june-2026/--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--
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  Who Killed the Florida Orange? 03.06.2026 52min

  Florida produced 242 million boxes of oranges in 2003. This year, the USDA is forecasting 12 million... a decline of more than 95% in less than a generation. Jacob sits down with journalist Alexander Sammon, who wrote a definitive autopsy of the Florida orange industry, to understand how disease, globalization, and real estate swallowed one of America's most iconic crops. Scratch the surface of orange juice, and you find geopolitics, government mandates, and the full sweep of 20th century American economic history.Alex's article below!--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome and Schedule Update(00:26) - Meet Alex Salmon(01:18) - Orange Juice Meets Geopolitics(02:48) - Florida Orange Collapse(04:27) - Disease and Perfect Storm(06:0) -6 Can Science Save Citrus(10:37) - Farmers Pivot to Real Estate(14:28) - Nostalgia for Old Florida(16:58) - Brazil Takes the Baton(24:25) - Oranges Through History(26:50) - Canonizing a Classic(27:39) - Oranges Arrive in Florida(28:52) - Railroads and Early Boom(30:02) - War Creates Orange Juice(30:35) - Geopolitics in Your Glass(34:02) - Advertising Makes a Staple(35:49) - Greening and Structural Cracks(37:26) - Globalization Hollowing Out(39:23) - Wall Street Consolidation(42:54) - Juice Backlash and Millennials(45:16) - Future of Oranges Worldwide(49:51) - Next Project and Farewell--Referenced in the Show:Who Killed the Florida Orange? - https://slate.com/business/2026/04/florida-state-orange-food-houses-real-estate.html--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--
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  Are the Cartels Winning? 21.05.2026 54min

  Ioan Grillo has spent decades on the ground in Mexico watching the cartels evolve, and his assessment is sobering. Violence has shifted form more than it's receded. Governments change rhetoric, not reality. The U.S. is more involved than anyone admits. And Sheinbaum is threading a needle between Washington's pressure and Mexican sovereignty. A conversation you won't find anywhere else.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro(01:33) - Name Pronunciation(02:46) - How Cartels Evolved(03:35) - Violence Plateau Explained(08:04) - Homicide Stats vs Reality(10:01) - Sheinbaum Security Strategy(14:28) - US Role and Intervention(15:54) - Trump Era Cartel Priority(20:51) - Sovereignty and Mixed Views(24:38) - Extraditions and Double Talk(27:11) - US Role In Mexico(28:23) - CIA Tactics Debate(29:11) - Bukele Model Questions(30:22) - Why Bukele Rose(34:15) - Crackdown Tradeoffs(37:53) - Mexico Geography Limits(39:36) - What Tough Looks Like(43:19) - Journalism Under Threat(47:49) - Staying Sane Reporting(53:01) - Closing And Links--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--
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  Static, Not Strategic 14.05.2026 58min

  Our favorite military analyst, Sim Tack, returns to the pod to assess three different conflicts reshaping global security. In Ukraine, territorial gains are tactical, not strategic; Russian economic endurance remains the real variable. In Iran, a degraded military has reached a stalemate the U.S. and Israel cannot break without regime change. And in Mali, a jihadist advance is threatening to create a new territorial caliphate... with Russia's failed security guarantee quietly accelerating the collapse.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome(01:08) - Sim is Back(01:56) - Is the World Overwhelming?(04:23) - AI Briefings and Limits(06:10) - Drones and War Evolution(09:44) - Top Conflicts to Watch(11:59) - Ukraine Strikes and Oil Leverage(13:53) - Reality Check on Initiative(18:26) - Zelensky Endgame Options(23:28) - Russia Staying Power and Economy(26:15) - NATO Threat Question(26:46) - Russia Threat Timeline(27:53) - Can Russia Fight NATO(29:30) - Satellite Buildup Reality(30:23) - Europe Rearms Narrative(35:11) - Asymmetric Threat Debate(37:06) - Drones Cyber Article Five(41:11) - US Munitions Bottleneck(47:39) - Iran Stalemate Logic(50:27) - How Neutered Is Iran(53:46) - Mali Jihadist Surge(57:17) - Closing Thanks Outro--Sim's Work:AllSource Analysis: https://allsourceanalysis.com/work/sim-tack/Linkedin: https://be.linkedin.com/in/sim-tack-081b313b--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--
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  Warp Speed for Everything 06.05.2026 1t 13min

  Jacob sits down for a fantastic conversation with author and analyst Dror Poleg to explore how AI is reshaping work, value, and the economy. They unpack why AI is better understood as a medium than a tool, what the shift from tangible to intangible assets means for investors, and why the dynamics of show business now govern every industry - from oil to politics.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introooo(01:27) - Twitter and the Text Commons(04:16) - AI Metaphors Tool or Medium(07:58) - How LLMs Actually Think(16:04) - Analog to Digital Generations(17:39) - Work Capital and Interchangeability(23:39) - OnlyFans Economy and Discovery(28:18) - Nonlinear Economy Tangible vs Intangible(35:45) - Is This Universal China Too(37:43) - China Fears Volatility(38:11) - COVID Strategy Contrast(40:39) - Censorship Arms Race(42:05) - AI Slips Control(43:09) - Energy Limits Return(44:52) - Automation And Work(47:22) - All Swans Black(52:36) - Politics Need New Story(57:50) - Cities For New Economy(01:03:18) - Warp Speed Government(01:05:00) - Israel Modern War Paradox(01:12:18) - Closing And Credits--Referenced in the Show:Dror Poleg's Site and piece referenced - https://www.drorpoleg.com/forty-in-quarantine/--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--
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  Gross Diplomacy 29.04.2026 57min

  Peru has had seven presidents in nine years, homicides have nearly doubled, and extortion is up sixfold - and yet the country just tried to buy $3.5 billion worth of F-16s. Elohim Monard returns to diagnose a political crisis that doubles as a case study in great-power failure. From "gross diplomacy" on social media to a runoff framed as "cancer versus HIV," Peru is caught between Washington and Beijing with no strategy of its own.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro(00:37) - Gross Diplomacy Sparks(01:51) - US Diplomatic Decline(05:17) - Trump Centralized Foreign Policy(07:08) - Peru F-16 Deal Controversy(12:28) - Why F-16s Make No Sense(17:13) - Peru Budget and Military Inertia(21:43) - Peru Election and Crime Surge(24:32) - Fujimori Question Setup(24:58) - Fujimori Paradox(26:38) - Instability Origins(28:32) - Democracy Tradeoffs(30:43) - Sanchez and Castillo(33:51) - Cleavages Over Policy(36:57) - US China Reality Check(39:03) - Beyond Great Powers(45:07) - Inequality Fuels Populism(49:52) - No Offers From Washington(51:28) - Latin America Leadership Void(56:44) - Closing and Signoff--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--
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  Fertilizer 101 22.04.2026 52min

  Josh Linville,VP of Fertilizer at StoneX, chats with Jacob about the global fertilizer crisis triggered by disruption to the Strait of Hormuz. They cover why the Middle East dominates fertilizer supply, why the US can't easily fill the gap, which crops and regions are most at risk, and what farmers should do right now to protect themselves.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome (01:15) - War Context and Stakes(02:22) - Fertilizer 101 Big Three(03:36) - Why Hormuz Matters(04:55) - Middle East Gas Advantage(06:12) - Why US Lags Production(07:56) - Capacity Crunch Explained(10:47) - China and State Strategy(13:11) - Build Plants or Reserve(16:25) - Investment Reality Check(19:00) - Food Security Imperative(21:18) - Seasonality and Timing(23:36) - Global Impacts and Grain(25:33) - Fertilizer Booking Gaps(26:44) - Survey Skepticism(28:59) - Global Risk Hotspots(30:43) - Yield and Protein Impacts(32:35) - Fertilizer Supercycles(36:05) - New Normal or Oversupply(39:47) - Pinch Points Russia(41:38) - Beyond the Big Three(43:19) - Organic Alternatives Limits(46:33) - Carbon Premium Reality(48:32) - Key Takeaways Farmers(50:42) - Wrap Up and Credits--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--