At the Water's Edge

Jaksot

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  October 7 Was “A Reenactment,” Not a Rupture | Robert Malley 14.09.2026 58min

  Rob Malley has spent three decades inside the peace process he now argues was never built to succeed. He negotiated at Camp David under President Clinton, led Obama's Iran nuclear negotiations that produced the JCPOA, served as Biden's Special Envoy for Iran, and ran the International Crisis Group. He's now a Senior Fellow and Lecturer at Yale's Jackson School and co-author, with Hussein Agha, of Tomorrow Is Yesterday: Life, Death, and the Pursuit of Peace in Israel/Palestine. In this conversation, Scott and Malley cover: Why the twin caricatures of Palestinians and Iranians — irrational zealots on one hand, rational actors who'll cave under enough pressure on the other — are both wrong Why Malley argues October 7 wasn't a rupture from the past, but a reenactment of it What three decades of U.S.-mediated peace talks got wrong about the conflict from the start Three failed American approaches to Iran — diplomacy, sanctions, military force — and which one actually worked Whether international law means anything after the U.S.'s own record of violating it Why Israel's influence over American politics has been so durable, and why Malley thinks that's finally starting to shift What comes next for Gaza and the West Bank if the current trajectory holds More from At the Water's Edge: ⁠https://substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg⁠ Malley's book, Tomorrow Is Yesterday, is out now. https://www.amazon.com/Tomorrow-Yesterday-Pursuit-Israel-Palestine/dp/0374617120/ref=sr_1_1?dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.xXGA2LVaN84oK2HTqL0ZafM_ffC2qb0JcTzYRXwxYYruV7giWAcghjS_mCTijJO7ifqpr_rfyp9RaWXbHb9QEXkJ_WN8If_d9vDNoEVAz8vBZHr9CnQYeBZddsj59cPDMEFx7wja1QjVF0PPUm-jlHP8t7otOxcvsDbnY8EFaKb1_da3s0oLUHaY6qTl4OmtpFoZEobh1gjLsUweCGw9VoooRbweo-geXkoVnAuFQR4.IEQ9K_vB2pz9c_3zhVHO8UTil5XOFXOY3VjNKp-cC5c&dib_tag=se&hvadid=693803539913&hvdev=c&hvexpln=67&hvlocphy=9005070&hvnetw=g&hvocijid=3083797136747453616--&hvqmt=e&hvrand=3083797136747453616&hvtargid=kwd-2443396325718&hydadcr=22537_13531293&keywords=robert+malley+book&mcid=cd77b3f36d583266b3b283bcc5466f73&qid=1789409486&sr=8-1
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  Iran Now Controls the Red Sea's Only Oil Bypass | Robert Pape 13.09.2026 54min

  The Houthis have seized control of the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait — and with the US Navy already stretched thin in the Strait of Hormuz, there's no clear path to reopening it. Professor Robert Pape returns to break down how we got here: Iran's methodical, multi-pronged campaign to choke off all three of the world's remaining oil buffers (the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Chinese import capacity, and now the Red Sea), and why he believes this is playing out exactly as he predicted back in June. In this episode: How the Iran-backed pipeline attack and Saudi shutdown fit into a broader strategy dating back to July Why "hammer and anvil" military doctrine explains why airstrikes alone won't dislodge the Houthis Pape's read on the "Pickaxe Mountain" reports and what they could signal heading into October What rising gas prices and a climbing 10-year Treasury yield mean for the US economy in the months ahead What Pape heard directly from EU officials in Brussels about Europe's actual priorities right now Got a question for Professor Pape? Send it to [[email protected]] and we may cover it in a future episode. More analysis at our Substack: https://substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg
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  Bin Laden Lost the War. America is Still Paying the Price 11.09.2026 26min

  Twenty-five years after 9/11, one question still doesn't have a clean answer: did Osama bin Laden actually win? In this solo episode, Scott Kelly goes goal-by-goal through what bin Laden said he wanted — U.S. troops out of Saudi Arabia, an end to support for Israel, toppled Arab regimes, a global caliphate, and an America bled into bankruptcy — and scores each one against what actually happened over the next 25 years. Then he traces the real cost of the response: the wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, and against ISIS, the $12.9 trillion bill, the institutions built in the aftermath (the DNI, the AUMF, an unaccountable executive war power), and how the current war with Iran might be finishing what bin Laden started — or giving a dead terrorist too much credit for America's own choices. What's covered: The four goals bin Laden laid out — and which ones actually happened 940,000+ direct war deaths, 30,000+ post-9/11 veteran suicides, and a bill that keeps growing How the Global War on Terror rewired U.S. intelligence, special operations, and the balance of war powers between Congress and the president The case that bin Laden won a "structural" victory even in tactical defeat — and the case that this is all self-inflicted Where the Iran war, the AUMF, and alliance strain fit into the 25-year scorecard
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  He Wanted to Die. Surviving Changed Everything 10.09.2026 58min

  Zach Tidwell enlisted in the Marine Corps wanting to go to war — and missed it. What followed was an affair, a traumatic brain injury, and a depression he refused to talk about, convinced he could just decide his way through it the same way he'd decided his way through infantry training. In March 2019, that ended with a suicide attempt that left him blind and partially deaf. In this conversation, Zach walks through all of it: the attempt itself, waking up in the hospital, a second wave of depression a year later that he handled differently, a two-and-a-half-year battle with alcoholism, a diagnosis of Huntington's disease, and how he's since built a life that includes jiu-jitsu, competitive marksmanship, a software company, and a memoir. If you or someone you know is in crisis, call or text 988 (Suicide & Crisis Lifeline), or reach the Veterans Crisis Line at 988, press 1. This is Episode 1 of Still Here, a five-part series produced in partnership with Wounded Warrior Project for Suicide Prevention Awareness Month. Episode 2 — Lindsey Gray, WWP's Suicide Prevention Manager, on the brain science behind these choices — drops next week. Chapters: 0:00 Cold open & content warning 1:35 Welcome, and blindness's hidden challenge: no sleep 2:36 Marine infantry life, and deployments that missed the war 5:05 A shared frustration: Scott's own near-miss with combat 7:40 The unraveling: infidelity, a TBI, and refusing to ask for help 13:41 The night of the attempt 16:48 No warning signs, and the gap between decision and execution 19:11 Waking up blind: hospital, hallucinations, and the diagnosis 22:57 Still a marksman: shooting steel at 1,000 yards, blind 25:49 Choosing to stay alive: "it takes a bullet to clear your head" 28:58 The second collapse: depression returns in 2020 32:58 Rebuilding trust with his parents 35:22 Years of turmoil: discrimination, alcoholism, and a Huntington's diagnosis 38:44 Coming back: teaching himself to code, building a business 42:58 Community, isolation, and finding jiu-jitsu 48:52 Family history of suicide and the "gear" mentality 51:13 The warning sign to watch for 52:49 Looking back with empathy 54:41 Living on a clock: what's next 57:38 Closing thoughts 58:19 Next week: breaking down the science Learn more about Wounded Warrior Project: woundedwarriorproject.org Hear more from Zach on his own podcast, Going In Blind: https://www.youtube.com/@ZachCTidwell This episode is brought to you by Grayzone Advisory. At the Water's Edge is hosted by Scott Kelly. Follow for weekly conversations on national security, geopolitics, and the people who serve.
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  The Iran War Exposed America’s Real Weakness | Sean O’Keefe 08.09.2026 58min

  Sean O'Keefe returns for his third appearance on the show — and this time, he's not pulling punches. Three months into the war with Iran, the former Secretary of the Navy and NASA Administrator makes the case that nobody in Washington can articulate what winning actually looks like. Not the White House, not the Pentagon, not the people who sent troops into the region in the first place. We go deep on what's actually changed since this conflict started: allies quietly pulling out of joint exercises, a "blockade to nowhere" in the Strait of Hormuz, and a trade war with Canada that looks a lot like a distraction from a war we can't define the objective of. O'Keefe and I go back and forth on whether tariffs make sense as an industrial security play, whether nuclear non-proliferation is even a realistic policy goal anymore, and whether NATO was ever really about shared values or just shared fear of Russia. In this episode: Why nobody has defined what "winning" the Iran war means The Strait of Hormuz blockade and what it has and hasn't accomplished South Korea, NATO, and the alliance fallout from years of unpredictable US commitments The case for and against tariffs as industrial policy, not just trade policy Whether the US can still meaningfully prevent nuclear proliferation What role America should play in a multipolar world it didn't choose to enter Sean O'Keefe served as Secretary of the Navy and Administrator of NASA, and has spent decades at the intersection of national security policy and public administration. This is his third time on the show. 🎙️ New episodes every week. Subscribe wherever you listen, and find the full write-up and more analysis at atthewatersedge.org.
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  A Culture of Silence: The Real Crisis Behind the Army Secretary’s Exit 04.09.2026 20min

  Dan Driscoll just resigned as Army Secretary after eighteen months — the shortest tenure in the role's modern history. That alone is a story. But he's the latest name on a list of more than 80 senior military leaders forced out or sidelined since January 2025, a purge with no precedent in the post-WWII era. This week, I connect Driscoll's exit to the Washington Post's report on four-star commands refusing to sign off on the Secretary of Defense's war plans, the collapsing trust inside the Pentagon's command climate, and a defense industrial base that still can't field a new weapon system fast enough to matter. Solo breakdown, no guest — just the pattern, laid out plainly. Get the full slide deck behind this episode on Substack: https://substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg
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  Iran Has Put America in a No-Win Scenario | Robert Pape 01.09.2026 44min

  Six months into the Iran war, the exchange of fire over the Strait of Hormuz just restarted. Professor Robert Pape returns to break down why the U.S. strike on Larak Island and Iran's retaliation against Jordan (and reportedly the UAE) aren't tit-for-tat — they're a denial strategy straight out of his book Bombing to Win. We cover the Army Secretary's resignation, the 82nd Airborne's extended deployment, whether a division-level operation into Iran is still physically feasible, and what the November 3rd–January 3rd window could mean for how this war plays out. Read Pape's real-time analysis at The Escalation Trap (escalationtrap.substack.com) and send questions for his audience Q&A to [email protected].
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  The 82nd Airborne Just Revealed How Long This War Could Last 31.08.2026 14min

  We're Not Leaving: What the 82nd Airborne's Year-Long Extension Tells Us About the Iran War The 82nd Airborne Division exists to deploy anywhere in the world within 18 hours. This week, its command team told paratrooper families their CENTCOM deployment is extending to a full year — and buried in that letter is the clearest signal yet of how long the United States expects to stay engaged with Iran. In this solo breakdown, Scott walks through the letter unit by unit — Division Headquarters, DIVARTY, the sustainment brigade, an air defense battalion, and a brigade combat team — and explains what each one's presence in theater actually signals about the mission, as distinct from what's just routine rotation. Topics covered in this episode: Why deploying a division headquarters, not just a brigade, changes the calculus What the sustainment brigade's presence tells you about plans for maneuver forces that haven't arrived yet The finite math of American expeditionary power: how many active-duty divisions are actually built for rapid deployment, and what it costs to tie one down for a year Why the deployment's end date — March 2027 — lands conveniently after the midterms and the seating of a new Congress The Abrams Doctrine: the post-Vietnam decision to embed sustainment capability in the Reserve and National Guard specifically to force political accountability before a war can be sustained — and why Guard/Reserve activation is the next indicator worth watching The logistical and operational security problems with any surprise airborne operation against Iran, given basing constraints and adversary satellite coverage What extended deployments elsewhere — including the USS Abraham Lincoln — suggest about troop morale and force strain going into a second year of this conflict This is a practitioner's read on a story most outlets covered as a personnel-policy footnote. It isn't. At the Water's Edge is a national security and geopolitics podcast that looks for insights beyond the headlines. Newsletter: https://substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg
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  Trump's Trade War Could Starve His Own War Machine 28.08.2026 18min

  Trump just invoked a Depression-era tariff statute that's never been used at this scale — against the one G7 ally that's a sole-source supplier for the U.S. Army's artillery propellant and a critical link in the F-35 supply chain. Scott breaks down the actual USMCA timeline, which of the administration's five stated justifications for the trade war actually holds up, and why the timing — six months into the Iran war, with the Pentagon pushing contractors to surge munitions production — makes this one of the more strategically incoherent fights Washington could pick right now.
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  Trump’s Economic D-Day Will Backfire | Robert Pape 24.08.2026 39min

  The ceasefire MOU with Iran has expired, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has launched what he's calling an "economic D-Day" — the same day Iran's new National Security Council chief, Mohsen Rezaei, threatened to shut the Strait of Hormuz to any nation that cooperates with US sanctions. Professor Robert Pape returns to the show with the historical argument he's been building for months: since World War One, economic pressure has never once ended a major war on its own. Not Germany, not Japan, not Iraq, not Iran to date. It takes extraordinary military force layered on top — and the cases where policymakers convinced themselves otherwise are the cases that produced the worst blowback, including the oil embargo that pushed Japan toward Pearl Harbor. This episode breaks down what the new sanctions package can realistically accomplish, why Iran's 3,600-mile land border makes this a harder problem than any prior sanctions regime, and what Saudi Arabia's new defense pact with Turkey and Pakistan signals about the region's confidence in Washington. 🔗 Robert Pape's live briefing tonight + full memo: escalationtrap.substack.com 📩 Send a question for the professor: [email protected] (personal email only, please) 📬 At the Water's Edge on Substack: substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg 🛡️ Geopolitical risk consulting: grayzoneadvisory.com
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  Washington Is Watching. Iran Is Moving. | Robert Pape 10.08.2026 44min

  Iran has moved from survival to ambition to hard power — and it's reshaping the balance of power in the Middle East while Washington stays on the sidelines. University of Chicago Professor Robert Pape returns for his weekly real-time breakdown of the U.S.-Iran conflict. This week: a tentative Iran-Oman deal on Strait of Hormuz traffic, Iran's new list of demands to reopen it, two overlapping defense coalitions forming across the Gulf and Red Sea, and Pape's enrichment-curve analysis on how close Iran actually is to a nuclear weapon — and why he says U.S. policy is teaching them to build one. In this episode: – The Iran-Oman Strait agreement and Iran's demands to reopen Hormuz – The Mecca joint defense pact between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan – The Houthi war on Saudi oil and Iran's "resistance security belt" strategy – Why Gulf states are drifting out of America's orbit – Pape's case for why Iran is on track to become the fourth global power – The path to $6 gas, and why every major power in this conflict keeps walking into its own escalation trap – Audience questions on Europe's role and the Obama-era nuclear deal counterfactual Got a question for Prof. Pape? Send it to [email protected] for a shot at a future episode. Robert Pape is a Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago and author of The Escalation Trap on Substack: escalationtrap.substack.com More analysis every week on the Substack: substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg Need geopolitical risk analysis for your organization? grayzoneadvisory.com
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  "This Is Strategic Paralysis" | Robert Pape on the Power Vacuum in the Persian Gulf 03.08.2026 44min

  This is the latest episode in The Escalation Trap, an ongoing series with Robert Pape of the University of Chicago tracking the war with Iran in real time — and the first episode where audience questions go directly to Pape on air. We open with what's actually known about the pause in strikes and the low-level Iran-Oman talks over Hormuz transit fees, which Pape argues is not a sign of progress but of strategic paralysis: a White House caught between an air campaign that hasn't achieved its goals and a negotiated path that means conceding to Iran's steadily expanding demands. Pape connects this to a larger thesis — that American dominance in the Persian Gulf, essentially unchallenged since the 1991 Gulf War, is giving way to a power vacuum that regional actors are moving to fill. He ties this directly to the Minnesota water-system cyberattacks, now assessed by U.S. intelligence as likely Iranian in origin, which he characterizes as a calibrated test of American resolve. He closes with his "nightmare scenario" for the next two months of the war, built around economic pressure, political necessity, and the risk of an Iranian response that reaches beyond the region. In our first audience Q&A segment, we put listener questions to Pape directly: whether anything could stop Iran from targeting Gulf desalination infrastructure serving 66 million people, whether a U.S. land blockade on Iran is realistically achievable, and whether the war in Ukraine and the war with Iran could become linked through Caspian Sea shipping. Robert Pape publishes ongoing frameworks and updates on this war at The Escalation Trap: https://escalationtrap.substack.com/ Scott's Substack: https://substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg
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  Former Acting Chairman of the Joint Chiefs: “The Colossus Is Awake” 30.07.2026 1t 2min

  America Can't Build Weapons Fast Enough | The Pentagon's Former Acting Chairman Explains Why Admiral Chris Grady (Ret.) spent over 40 years in the Navy, commanded at every level from ship to fleet, and served as Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff — including a stretch as Acting Chairman during one of the most chaotic weeks in recent Pentagon history. Now retired and serving as a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Business Executives for National Security (BENS), he joins the show to break down why America's defense industrial base can't keep pace with modern conflict, and what it would actually take to fix it. We cover his own framework for how the character of war is changing: the shift from platform-centric to system-centric thinking, why "attritable mass" is rewriting the cost-exchange math of modern combat, why the electromagnetic spectrum is now a contested warfighting domain in its own right, and why the industrial base itself has become a tool of deterrence. Along the way: the 155mm shell shortage, the cost-exchange problem of cheap drones against expensive interceptors, why the U.S. still hasn't fielded a real answer to 1991's Blue Force Tracker, and the workforce gap behind it all, including why a welder can out-earn a lot of college grads. Read Adm. Grady's article, "The Future of War," on The BENS Lens: https://thebenslens.substack.com/p/the-future-of-war Learn more about BENS: [bens.org] Subscribe to my Substack: https://substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg
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  You Can’t Bomb Iran Into Surrender | Robert Pape 29.07.2026 1t 9min

  This is the latest episode in The Escalation Trap, an ongoing series with Robert Pape of the University of Chicago tracking the war with Iran in real time. Pape recorded this episode without power of his own — tornadoes had just knocked out electricity across the south side of Chicago — and turns his own blackout into a working case study for what it would actually mean for the U.S. to take down Iran's electric grid. We walk through the difference between hitting a grid's transformers and hitting its generator halls, why one is fixed in days and the other takes months, and what a real months-long blackout does to a city of ten million people: food spoilage, water pressure collapse, hospitals losing dialysis and surgical capacity, and no air conditioning in near-100-degree heat. Pape explains why that level of damage — what he calls "medium" civilian punishment — tends to produce revenge rather than surrender, drawing on his historical research into World War II bombing campaigns and Pearl Harbor, and where the ceiling actually sits before a population is too devastated to seek payback. From there we turn to the drone hunt: the scale problem behind suppressing Iran's Shaheed arsenal, why the search area is one and a half times the size of California, and why Pape doesn't believe the Strait of Hormuz reopens before the midterms. We close on the political clock both Washington and Tehran are racing against, and why Pape thinks Iran's actual target has never been our bases in the Gulf — it's the presidency itself. Robert Pape publishes ongoing frameworks and updates on this war at The Escalation Trap: https://escalationtrap.substack.com/ Scott's Substack: https://substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg
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  This Should Be Illegal. It's Not 23.07.2026 46min

  Cities and towns across America are signing non-disclosure agreements with corporations — and in some cases, officials aren't even allowed to tell the public an NDA exists. Investigative journalist Miranda Spivack joins the show to explain how local government secrecy became a national security issue. Miranda spent twenty years at The Washington Post covering state and local government. Her new book, Backroom Deals in Our Backyards: How Government Secrecy Harms Our Communities and the Local Heroes Fighting Back (The New Press), documents how "accidental activists" across the country have fought back against poisoned water, toxic firefighter gear, and opaque data center deals. We cover why data centers are driving a wave of secret NDAs between corporations and local officials, the Hoosick Falls, NY water contamination case, what happened when Amazon went hunting for its second headquarters, why the collapse of local news makes all of this harder to catch, and how local government secrecy connects to national power and America's data infrastructure race. Guest: Miranda S. Spivack — veteran journalist, former Washington Post editor/reporter, Fulbright Scholar, and author of Backroom Deals in Our Backyards (The New Press, 2025). Book: available from The New Press with discount code BACKROOM30, or at your local bookstore and bookshop.org Substack: backroomdeals.substack.com X: @mirandareporter
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  The War Is Spiraling | Robert Pape on Iran and the Escalation Trap 21.07.2026 23min

  The war with Iran has entered what Robert Pape, Professor at the University of Chicago, calls the "spiral phase" — a dynamic that's both vertical, with harsher strikes on both sides, and horizontal, with the Red Sea now pulled into the conflict via a Houthi blockade. This week brings the death of three more U.S. service members, bringing the total to 17, a bombing campaign now targeting Iranian civilian infrastructure at scale, a reinstated naval blockade, and strikes on multiple Kuwaiti desalination plants — cutting off water that millions of people depend on, with no backup supply. We cover why Pape believes he's been modeling this exact war for twenty years, and why he traces its real starting point to the bombing of the Fordow enrichment facility in June 2025, not the more commonly cited February 2026 date. We discuss new intelligence around a facility Pape refers to as "Pickaxe Mountain" and concerns about uranium enrichment moving toward weapons-grade levels, why Pape argues that neither Trump nor Iran actually controls the outcome of this war — commercial shipping companies do — and the parallel Pape draws between Trump's political calculus now and Lyndon Johnson's decision-making during Vietnam. Pape publishes ongoing analysis of the conflict in his Substack, The Escalation Trap: https://escalationtrap.substack.com/ For more analysis on this conflict, subscribe to the At the Water's Edge Substack: https://substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg This is a weekly recurring conversation tracking the Iran war in real time. New episodes drop every week.
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  "Iran's Supreme Leader Just Called for Attacks on Americans Worldwide" | Robert Pape 13.07.2026 31min

  The war with Iran is back on, and according to Robert Pape, Professor at the University of Chicago, we are now knocking on the door of the most dangerous stage of the conflict yet. This week, Pape walks through why Iran's Supreme Leader has issued a call for revenge attacks on Americans anywhere in the world, why that statement closely parallels the fatwa issued against Salman Rushdie three decades ago, and why he believes the U.S. and Iran are both boxed into an escalation neither side can easily walk back from. We cover why Pape believes punishment campaigns and the recently failed MOU have left Trump with few remaining off-ramps, why Pape expects the coming wave of violence to be driven by inspired rather than centrally directed attackers, and the historical parallel Pape draws between Trump's current position and Imperial Japan's decision to attack Pearl Harbor. We also discuss why Pape believes a nuclear strike remains unlikely in the near term, and why he has been warning for months that this war could extend well into 2027. Pape publishes ongoing analysis of the conflict in his Substack, The Escalation Trap: https://escalationtrap.substack.com/ This is a weekly recurring conversation tracking the Iran war in real time. New episodes drop every week.
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  Joe Kent: 'Israel Drove This Decision, Not Us' 09.07.2026 1t 8min

  Joe Kent spent 21 years in Army Special Forces and the CIA before becoming President Trump's Director of the National Counterterrorism Center — then walked away from it, resigning in protest over the war with Iran. This week I sit down with him to talk about what he saw from inside the administration in the weeks before he quit, why he believes Israel drove the decision to strike, and what it actually looks like to try to "coach up" a president who's stopped listening. We get into the collapse of the MOU, whether the US has any leverage left in the Strait of Hormuz, and why he thinks the all-volunteer force has quietly severed the military from the country it defends. We also cover ground most of his interviews haven't: whether some form of compulsory service is the only real check left on endless wars, and whether 2028 opens the door to a genuine third party built around opposition to foreign intervention. Joe Kent: 21 years in Special Operations (75th Ranger Regiment, 5th Special Forces Group), CIA paramilitary officer, and former Director of the National Counterterrorism Center. Follow him at x.com/joekent16jan19. At the Water's Edge is a weekly conversation with practitioners and analysts on national security and geopolitics, hosted by a former Green Beret. New episodes every week
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  Iran's Funeral Just Changed the War | Robert Pape's Warning to Washington 06.07.2026 35min

  Just days after President Trump's Fourth of July weekend, Iran held a massive funeral for its slain leadership — and millions turned out. In this week's installment of our ongoing series on the war with Iran, Robert Pape, Professor at the University of Chicago and one of the leading scholars on coercion, airpower, and political violence, argues that the funeral marks a turning point that has nothing to do with capability and everything to do with will. Pape lays out his case that four and a half months of decapitation strikes, blockade, and bombing have not broken Iranian public resolve — and why that matters for the ongoing negotiations set for July 11th. We cover Kuwait and Bahrain's complaint to the UN Security Council, why Iran is reportedly turning down financial offers from Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, the risk of Washington falling into an "echo chamber" on Iran policy, and why Pape believes pressure could build toward further escalation as soon as August. Pape publishes ongoing analysis of the conflict in his Substack, The Escalation Trap: https://escalationtrap.substack.com/ This is a weekly recurring conversation tracking the Iran war in real time. New episodes drop every week.
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  Iran Is Not Deterred | Robert Pape on the Escalation Trap 29.06.2026 30min

  This is the latest episode in The Escalation Trap, an ongoing series with Robert Pape of the University of Chicago tracking the war involving the United States, Israel, and Iran in real time. After new strikes in the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. bombing inside Iran, Iranian missile attacks on U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, and renewed talk of a ceasefire, Pape argues that the conflict is not ending. Instead, we are in the middle game of the escalation trap. That means periods of violence followed by pauses — not a durable ceasefire. Pape explains why Iran has not been deterred by assassination, bombing, blockade pressure, or threats. Instead, Iran may be entering a period of maximum coercive leverage as oil inventories draw down and pressure grows on the global economy. We also discuss Iran’s nuclear trajectory, the risks facing U.S. forces in the Gulf, the role of Lebanon and the Red Sea, Israel’s future security position, and why the timing of Iran’s nuclear decision may depend less on politics and more on feasibility. Why Pape says Iran is not deterred Why this is military action and pause — not a real ceasefire How the war remains in the middle game of the escalation trap Why Iran may continue kinetic pressure in the Strait of Hormuz How oil inventories shape Iran’s coercive leverage Why Lebanon, Hezbollah, and the Red Sea matter to Iran’s regional strategy What this means for U.S. forces in the Gulf How Iran’s nuclear calculus may be changing Whether Iran would sprint to a nuclear weapon or wait Why nuclear timing may come down to feasibility, not politics The war did not end. The ceasefire is not holding in any meaningful strategic sense. And Iran may be using this phase of the conflict to increase leverage, pressure U.S. forces, and move closer to the kind of regional power position Pape has warned about throughout this series. Escalation Trap Substack: https://escalationtrap.substack.com At the Water’s Edge delivers practitioner-level insight into national security and geopolitics — bridging academic theory with how conflicts actually unfold in the real world. In this episode:Key takeaway:Follow Robert Pape’s work:About the show: