trading places

Epizode

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  Can Helsing Become Europe’s Anduril? Inside Its $18B Valuation 06.08.2026 1h 14min

  Is Helsing becoming Europe’s answer to Anduril?In this episode of Trading Places, Dave McClure and Aman Verjee break down the German defense technology company’s new $18 billion valuation, its AI-powered autonomous systems, its battlefield testing in Ukraine, and the growing pressure on Europe to build its own defense capabilities.Aman compares Helsing’s software-first model with Anduril’s vertically integrated hardware-and-software approach—and explains why Helsing’s limited access to the U.S. defense market may be the biggest factor determining whether its valuation is justified.Dave also sits down with Kelly Rodriques, CEO of Forge Global, now part of Charles Schwab, to discuss the rapidly expanding private secondary market.00:00 – cold open 00:47 – [ tech and vc news ] 02:41 – The Fed votes to hold rates steady 🏦 07:20 – Q2 Earnings Week: how big tech did last quarter 📈 09:22 – how big tech makes their money - diagramed 📊 12:08 – Situational Awareness - Aschenbrenner loses his shirt 😢 16:11 – the highly volatile Korean stock market 🇰🇷 18:14 – SpaceX shares unlock August 6 🚀 22:14 – Anthropic and OpenAI models hack into systems of other companies 🚨 25:37 – Big Tech employee tender offers 🧾 29:44 – Uber founder's new company and jet ski commute 🚤 32:51 – [ intvw: Kelly Rodrigues, Forge Global ] 33:19 – his journey into private markets 👔 35:57 – why companies stay private longer now 🔐 37:00 – the new secondary market "middle world"🏬 40:20 – the Forge customer type 🙋‍♂️ 46:30 – how to buy private companies on Forge 💳 49:00 – why Charles Schwab bought them out💲 57:04 – what SpaceX IPO can teach AI giants 🛰️ 1:05:15 – predictions for markets in coming year 🕔 1:06:58 – [ valuation corner: Helsing @ $18B ] 1:07:12 – the Munich-based company raised $1.8B 🇪🇺 1:07:45 – inspired by Clausewitz 🪖 1:11:45 – how military budgets are changing 💶 1:12:32 – how Helsing compares to Anduril and Saronic 🚁Trading Places is the world’s worst podcast about VC secondaries, private markets and high-growth technology companies.Subscribe for weekly coverage of private-company valuations, tender offers, secondary transactions, IPOs and venture capital liquidity.[ links ][ invest = https://practicalvc.com ][ trading places socials = www.linktr.ee/tradingplacespod ][ kelly rodriques = https://www.linkedin.com/in/kelly-rodriques-9b49418 | https://x.com/frgeglobal ][ aman verjee = https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee | https://x.com/amanverjee ][ dave mcclure = https://www.linkedin.com/in/davemcclure | https://x.com/davemcclure ]Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. We may hold positions in companies discussed. Do your own research.#Helsing #DefenseTech #VentureCapital #PrivateMarkets #Anduril #SpaceX #ForgeGlobal
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  SpaceX's First Earnings Report as a Public Company 🚨 SPECIAL EPISODE 05.08.2026 24min

  SpaceX just reported earnings for the first time since going public — and the numbers were a rollercoaster. Revenue beat estimates by a mile (+92% YoY), EBITDA came in strong, and every business segment posted growth. So why did the stock give up its gains and drop 8% after hours?In this special breakdown, Dave and Aman dig into:0:27 SpaceX first earnings report 🚀5:45 how SpaceX makes money 💸6:38 the importance of EBITDA 📖8:04 detailing SpaceX revenue 📈12:55 bull and bear case for SpaceX stock 🐂17:13 chances of a SpaceX-Tesla merger 🤝23:40 Dave’s 60th birthday 🎂This is a special one-off episode — full episode with our regular format comes out tomorrow. Thanks for tuning in![ links ][ invest = https://practicalvc.com ][ trading places socials = www.linktr.ee/tradingplacespod ][ aman verjee = https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee | https://x.com/amanverjee ][ dave mcclure = https://www.linkedin.com/in/davemcclure | https://x.com/davemcclure ]Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. We may hold positions in companies discussed. Do your own research.
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  Anduril Hits $100B, Saronic Hits $9B 💥 Inside the Defense Tech Boom w/ Dave McClure and Aman Verjee 28.07.2026 48min

  Dave McClure and Aman Verjee break down why venture capital is pouring into autonomous defense companies, how Anduril, Shield AI, Saronic and a new generation of startups are challenging the traditional defense primes, and why expanding military budgets outside the United States could create an enormous new market.They also discuss the growing threat Chinese open-weight AI models pose to OpenAI and Anthropic, including Kimi K3’s near-frontier performance at a fraction of the apparent cost. Could cheaper open models force the leading American AI labs to compete harder—or will Washington restrict access?00:45 - [ tech and vc news ]01:51 - the Iran war: will it ever end? 🛢️03:15 - Google: first negative cash-flow quarter ever 😢09:55 - SpaceX continues to fall 📉12:21 - Chinese open-source AI vs. American AI 🤼‍♂️16:47 - When will Anthropic go public? 📊22:32 - most recent Chinese IPOs 🇨🇳26:17 - massive valuation for Databricks 🤑27:06 - Where is the IPO market headed? 🧾31:57 - [ valuation corner: defense tech on the rise ]32:03 - Anduril seeking $100B valuation 🛩33:53 - why defense tech is soaring 🚀35:37 - military-tech leaders: the new generation 🪖38:04 - how military budgets are changing 🗃47:49 - second takes 😂[ links ][ invest = https://practicalvc.com ][ trading places socials = www.linktr.ee/tradingplacespod ][ aman verjee = https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee | https://x.com/amanverjee ][ dave mcclure = https://www.linkedin.com/in/davemcclure | https://x.com/davemcclure ]Thank you for watching!#Anduril #saronic #shieldai #defensetech #venturecapital
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  US vs. China AI: OpenAI, Anthropic, DeepSeek & Moonshot Go to War 22.07.2026 1h 5min

  The AI arms race just got a lot more interesting. Moonshot's Kimi K3 is topping leaderboards ahead of proprietary US models, DeepSeek is raising at a $71B valuation ahead of its own IPO, and Anthropic is quietly lining up bankers for a Q4 listing that could value the company at $2-3 trillion. Meanwhile SpaceX has broken its IPO price, Stripe just made a $53B run at PayPal, and European defense tech is heating up with Helsing's $18B raise.Then Adam Crawley (Augment) and Marcelo Ballvé (Sacra) join to break down the new Augment Power 20 — how the rankings are built, who's moving up (hello Neuralink and Crusoe), and their bold predictions for Q3.We close out with a Valuation Corner deep dive on Crusoe, the neo-cloud infrastructure company reportedly raising at a $30B valuation, and where it fits into the broader AI stack.0:00 - cold open00:53 - [ tech and vc news ]2:00 - post-IPO SpaceX: big flop? 📉5:39 - Anthropic races to Q4 IPO 💰7:26 - Chinese AI vs. US models 🇨🇳🇺🇸14:26 - DeepSeek raises $1.5B @ $71B 🤖16:15 - Stripe bids $53B for PayPal, not enough? 💸22:49 - the European Anduril: Helsing 🛩️24:46 - [ intvw: adam crawley @augment & marcelo ballvé @sacra ]27:24 - how Power 20 rankings are calculated 💡33:02 - most active 💪 Power 20 companies Q2 '2640:08 - largest risers 📈 in price gains42:15 - bold predictions for Q3 🔮54:37 - [ valuation corner: crusoe @ $30B ]55:03 - rapid revenue growth 🚀58:29 - the AI "stack" breakdown 🍰1:01:11 - pick-and-shovel play ⛏️🪏1:05:07 - second takes 😂[ links ][ invest = https://practicalvc.com ][ trading places socials = www.linktr.ee/tradingplacespod ][ adam crawley = https://www.linkedin.com/in/adam-crawley-b2146753/ | https://x.com/adamcrawley1 ][ augment = https://augment.market/ ][ marcelo ballvé = https://www.linkedin.com/in/marceloballve/ | https://x.com/ballve ][ sacra = http://sacra.com/ ][ aman verjee = https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee | https://x.com/amanverjee ][ dave mcclure = https://www.linkedin.com/in/davemcclure | https://x.com/davemcclure ]Thank you for watching**Please note: Inclusion in the Augment Power 20 does not predict future performance and should not be considered investment advice. For informational purposes only. Augment Markets, Inc. is a technology company offering software and data services with securities-related services offered through its wholly-owned but separately managed subsidiary Augment Capital, LLC, Member of FINRA/ SIPC. Read our full disclosure statement here.#tradingplacespodcast #sacra #augmentmarkets #davemcclure #secondarymarket
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  Can Jeff Bezos Catch Elon Musk? Blue Origin at $130B | Reflection AI vs. DeepSeek | Interview with Shawn Bercuson 15.07.2026 1h 11min

  Welcome back to Trading Places, the weekly show covering the biggest stories in venture capital, private markets, AI, IPOs, and secondaries.This week, Jeff Bezos and Blue Origin make headlines with a $10B raise at a $130B valuation, igniting the next chapter in the battle with Elon Musk and SpaceX. We also break down OpenAI’s new multi-model strategy, the growing threat from open-weight AI models, Meta’s move into hyperscale cloud computing, Kalshi’s explosive valuation, and much more.Then we’re joined by Shawn Bercuson, Founder & CEO of Earlyasset Capital, for an in-depth conversation about the future of venture secondaries, liquidity, SPVs, private market investing, and why the next decade could fundamentally reshape private capital markets.Timestamps:00:56 — [ tech and vc news ]03:05 — setter top 30: the secondary scoreboard 🏆07:53 — ⁠us vs anthropic ceasefire 🤝12:11 — openai ships gpt-5.6: sol / terra / luna 🌕13:24 — china vs us ai: does cheap/open reset the race 🌏19:15 — meta back: low-cost models, rentable compute 🔋21:17 — $SKHY raises $26B, mkt cap >$1T 💾23:25 — blue origin: $10b on $130b 🚀26:33 — kalshi raising at $40b, polymarket lagging 🎲30:29 — [ intvw: Shawn Bercuson @ Earlyasset Capital ]⁠from groupon to secondaries: an origin story 🍩38:45 — bull vc: liquidity for distressed shares 🐂43:30 — the law of 30 (really 50) 📏46:18 — dailypay, SPVs, and the anthropic fallout ⚠️58:20 — ⁠⁠the private market in ‘27 and ‘28 🔮1:01:08 — [ valuation corner: Reflection AI @ $25B ]the raise and the team 💰1:04:35 — deepseek vs reflection: revenue and multiples 🇨🇳1:07:05 — mapping the ai landscape: cost vs efficacy 🗺️1:10:00 — coding assistants and the verdict on reflection 🤖[ links ][ invest = https://practicalvc.com ][ trading places socials = www.linktr.ee/tradingplacespod ][ shawn bercuson = https://www.linkedin.com/in/shawnbercuson | https://earlyasset.com/ ][ aman verjee = https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee | https://x.com/amanverjee ][ dave mcclure = https://www.linkedin.com/in/davemcclure | https://x.com/davemcclure ]Thank you for watching#tradingplacespodcast #vcsecondary #SteveBercuson #davemcclure #BlueOrigin
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  DeepSeek's $50B Round, OpenAI's Delayed IPO, and the GP Stakes Market with CAZ Investments 01.07.2026 1h 11min

  DeepSeek just raised $7.4B at a $50B valuation 🇨🇳and there's no cap table access. It's structured through an SPV, no voting rights, no board seats. CEO Liang Wenfeng put in $3B of his own money and controls the vehicle.Meanwhile Anthropic is trading above $1T on the secondary market despite Mythos getting staged by the government, and SpaceX just locked in its Nasdaq 100 slot with a $2T valuation on a float of only ~6%.Plus: Michael O'Keefe of CAZ Investments breaks down how a $12B GP stakes portfolio actually gets built.00:00 – cold open00:54 –  [ tech and vc news ] 02:33 – SpaceX joins Nasdaq-100 🚀08:39 – Anthropic hits $1T valuation & IPO outlook 💸14:45 – OpenAI builds its own chip + 2027 IPO delay 🤖18:07 – AI memory demand surges (Micron wins, Apple/customers pay more) 💾20:24 – Cerebras falls below its IPO price 📉22:46 – AI token costs rising; customers shift to Chinese open-weight models 🔄28:24 – Bending Spoons targets ~$19–20B IPO on profitable roll-up strategy 🥄32:56 –  [ intvw: Michael O’Keefe @ CAZ ]  33:22 – CAZ manages $12B AUM 💰36:04 – What is GP stake investing? 📊44:19 – Typical check sizes & fund sizes45:45 – How GP stakes are valued 📈56:52 – Where CAZ is investing today: AI, energy, sports 🤖1:00:05 – The secondary market boom 🔥1:02:45 – [ valuation corner: DeepSeek @ $50B ]1:03:40 – Largest seed round ever? 🏆1:04:45 – SPV mechanics & stockholder structure 🛠️1:07:40 – Users and revenue growth 📈1:10:25 – DeepSeek vs. OpenAI comparison 🆚[ links ][ invest = https://practicalvc.com ][ trading places socials = www.linktr.ee/tradingplacespod ][ michael o’keefe = https://www.linkedin.com/in/mjoii/ | https://cazinvestments.com/ ][ aman verjee = https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee | https://x.com/amanverjee ][ dave mcclure = https://www.linkedin.com/in/davemcclure | https://x.com/davemcclure ]Thank you for watching#tradingplacespodcast #SpaceX #ClaraVydyanath #davemcclure #SpaceXIPO
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  SpaceX Surges, Anthropic Stumbles, and Bezos Bets $12B 23.06.2026 52min

  SpaceX just finished its first week as a public company. Anthropic just had its newest model frozen by the US government. And Jeff Bezos just raised $12B for a startup that's been alive for about a year.Dave and Aman break it all down — from SpaceX IPO mechanics and gamma squeeze risk, to the Dario vs. Washington standoff that could derail the Anthropic IPO, to Bezos's $41B physical AI bet, a massive Salesforce acquisition of a 500 Startups alum, and why Mistral and Cohere just became the Dr. Pepper of AI.Plus: the Valuation Corner returns with Powerlaw (PWRL) — the new retail-accessible VC fund from Ben Black and Mike Dinsdale backed by Acadian. Dave and Aman break down the portfolio, the price-to-NAV, and whether it's worth the ride.00:48 - [ tech news and vc ]02:58 - oil down, defense up 🚀10:31 - SpaceX week one on the tape 📈15:15 - Anthropic gets frozen 🧊30:30 - SaaS enters valuation winter ❄️33:42 - Bezos bets $12B on an AI engineer 🤖36:30 - Mistral doubles to $23B 💸42:15 - Saronic unmanned ship saves lives 🛟43:20 - [ val corner: PWRL Ben Black ]how Power Law gives retail a chance 🙏46:06 - portfolio breakdown 💼47:15 - strategy pros and cons 👍👎49:29 - manager accolades 💐[ links ][ invest = https://practicalvc.com ][ trading places socials = www.linktr.ee/tradingplacespod ][ aman verjee = https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee | https://x.com/amanverjee ][ dave mcclure = https://www.linkedin.com/in/davemcclure | https://x.com/davemcclure ]Thank you for watching#spacex #anthropic #mistralai #secondaries #venturecapital
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  The SpaceX IPO Report Card, OpenAI vs. Anthropic, and the Private Market No One Talks About | CJ Gustafson w/ Guest CJ Gustafson 16.06.2026 1h 33min

  The SpaceX IPO just happened. Dave and Aman break down the grades, the winners, and what comes next — then sit down with CJ Gustafson, recovering tech CFO and founder of Mostly Metrics, to dig into the private market pricing mechanics that most investors get completely wrong.This week: SpaceX Day 1 results and the $75B raise that dwarfed an entire year of VC-backed IPOs. The updated Private Mag Seven — who stays, who goes public, and who replaces them. OpenAI vs. Anthropic: which IPO is actually stronger and at what price. Google raising $80B in equity (not debt) with Berkshire Hathaway coming in. Cognition at $26B and the AI coding land grab. ——00:36 - [ tech news and vc ]01:52 - Big 3 Race to Go Public 🏁04:15 - Google $85B Equity Raise 💰22:48 - SaaSpocalypse Over? 🫨29:46 - AI-coding Cognition Raises $1B 💸32:32 - Databricks Past $134B & Revolut Past $100B 🚀40:01 - [ intvw: CJ Gustafson, recovering tech CFO ] 44:32 - Raising $1B in 18 Months 💸46:16 - SaaS Multiples: From 20x to 4x and the Road Back 📉1:17:00 - Stay Private, Get to $1B ARR Before You IPO 🏰1:20:26 - [ val corner: Aman grades SpaceX IPO ]1:25:12 – What happens to stock price next 6 months 🤔1:29:45 – Who made the most money 🤑——[ links ][ invest = https://practicalvc.com ][ trading places socials = www.linktr.ee/tradingplacespod ][ cj gustafson = https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/ | https://x.com/cjgustafson ][ run the numbers podcast https://www.youtube.com/@RuntheNumberswithCJ ][ aman verjee = https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee | https://x.com/amanverjee ][ dave mcclure = https://www.linkedin.com/in/davemcclure | https://x.com/davemcclure ]Trading Places is the only VC secondary podcast on the internet. Hosted by Dave McClure and Aman Verjee of Practical Venture Capital.Subscribe for weekly coverage of private markets, AI company valuations, and the deals most investors never see coming.#spacex #spacexipo #spacexstock #secondaries #venturecapital
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  I Read the 308-Page SpaceX S-1 So You Don’t Have To 26.05.2026 1h 1min

  Aman read all 308 pages of the SpaceX S-1 so you don't have to. This week we break down every major number, surprise, and buried Easter egg in the filing — plus the biggest IPO week in recent memory across the AI holy trinity.SpaceX is pricing around June 12 and could open at a $2T+ valuation. We walk through all three business segments (Connectivity, Space, AI), the $28.5 trillion TAM claim, Elon's compensation plan that pays out $583B if he colonizes Mars, the unusual staggered lock-up structure, and the two breadcrumbs in the S-1 that suggest a SpaceX-Tesla merger could be coming.We also cover Anthropic's monster quarter ($10.9B in Q2 revenue, profitable, raising at $900B), OpenAI rushing to beat them to IPO after winning the Musk lawsuit, NVIDIA's $81B print growing 85% YoY, Mercury's $200M Series D at $5.2B, the US government taking equity stakes in quantum companies, and Nasdaq Private Markets suing Hiive over secondary market plumbing.A lot happened this week.00:43 - [ tech news and vc ]08:04 - Anthropic profitable, $900B looks cheap 🤯13:38 - OpenAI rushes to IPO after courtroom win 🏃‍♂️‍➡️17:53 - NVIDIA $82B print $80B buyback 💰🫲22:20 - Mercury $200M Series D @ $5.2B 🏦25:35 - US Govt = Quantum VC ⚛️29:05 - NPM sues Hiive over 2ndry plumbing 🪠30:58 - [ val corner: 308 page SpaceX S-1 ] 31:06 - SpaceX S-1 highlights 📸🔦35:56 - $28T TAM includes Martians 🌎🌍🌏🌖✨37:00 - 3 core biz units: Connectivity, Space, AI 3️⃣47:05 - SpaceX-Tesla merger? 🤔50:10 - board members revealed 👤53:48 - unusual staggered lock-up period 🔐1:01:00 - Dave sings a whole new Mars 🎶[ links ][ invest = https://practicalvc.com ][ trading places socials = www.linktr.ee/tradingplacespod ][ aman verjee = https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee | https://x.com/amanverjee ][ dave mcclure = https://www.linkedin.com/in/davemcclure | https://x.com/davemcclure ]Thank you for watching#spacexs1 #spacexipo #spacex #secondaries #venturecapital
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  $900B Anthropic, SpaceX IPO Date, and the SPV Wild West w/ Clara Vydyanath | Trading Places Pod EP35 21.05.2026 1h 10min

  IPO season is here — and private markets are breaking at the seams.This week on Trading Places: Cerebras just had one of the best IPOs in years, pricing way above range and popping 68% on day one. SpaceX is targeting June 12th for its Nasdaq listing — and the prospectus drops next week. Anthropic raised $30B at a $900B valuation (up from ~$350B just three months ago) — and then told SPV operators to back off. And Anduril closed a $5B round at $61B, doubling its valuation in under a year.Then Dave and Aman sit down with Clara Vydyanath, a secondaries veteran who's spent eight years at Forge and Hiive, to break down what's actually happening in the SPV market — who's legit, who's a scammer, and what CFOs should be doing right now. Plus: retail VC part two, where Aman pits AngelList's USVC (Naval Ravikant + Ankur Nagpal) against Cathie Wood's Ark Ventures. One of them has a track record problem.Timestamps:cold open[ tech news and vc ]00:53 - Warsh confirmed as new Fed chair 🪑03:32 - Hormuz "you shall not pass" 🚢🧙‍♂️07:05 - Cerebras blockbuster IPO 📈12:28 - SpaceX IPO date around June 12 🚀15:56 - Anthropic raises $30B @ $900B valuation 💰28:30 - Anduril closes $5B @ $61B 🛫30:07 - [ intvw: Clara Vydyanath, 2ndry advisor ]What she learned at Hiive & Forge 🧠33:52 - SPVs and Anthropic ✋39:43 - What will happen after IPO summer 🔮44:20 - Wild West of 2ndries is only beginning 🤠46:00 - CFOs tender offer playbook 📕58:50 - [ val corner: retail VC part 2 ]Closed end funds: AngelList & Ark Invest 📝1:00:33 - AngelList USVC portfolio breakdown 😇1:02:35 - ARKK Ventures Ark Invest portfolio breakdown 🌈1:05:10 - Portfolio strategy and fees faceoff 🥊1:06:00 - Ankur Nagpal vs Cathie Wood 🤺1:10:10 - second takes 😂[ links ][ invest = https://practicalvc.com ][ trading places socials = www.linktr.ee/tradingplacespod ][ clara vydyanath = https://www.linkedin.com/in/clara-vydyanath-cfa-cpa-14287316/ | https://x.com/ClaraVydyanath ][ aman verjee = https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee | https://x.com/amanverjee ][ dave mcclure = https://www.linkedin.com/in/davemcclure | https://x.com/davemcclure ]Thank you for watching#tradingplacespodcast #SpaceX #ClaraVydyanath #davemcclure #SpaceXIPO
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  Anthropic's $44B Revenue Run Rate, SpaceX's $75B IPO Problem, and the Retail VC Trap | Ep 34 14.05.2026 1h 3min

  Anthropic is now reportedly running at a $44B ARR pace, secondary markets are valuing it north of $1T, and demand is turning into full-scale FOMO.This week on Trading Places, Dave McClure and Aman Verjee break down:00:00 — cold open00:39 — [ tech and vc news ] 01:53 — Markets ATH during Iran war 💥06:45 — SpaceX + Anthropic $4B deal 🤝10:51 — New NASDAQ rules benefit SpaceX 🔔15:21 — Anthropic raising $50B @ $900B, ARR accelerating 📈18:20 — Sam and Elon courtroom drama 🍿23:21 — Cerebras IPO 20x oversubscribed 🥊25:14 — SaaS-pocalypse continues ⛈️📉27:47 — [ valuation corner: retail VC part 1 ]Non-accredited investors want private stock 🙏29:11 — Robinhood Ventures w/ Sarah Pinto & Vlad Tenev 1️⃣30:15 — Fundrise w/ Ben Miller 2️⃣33:00 — D/XYZ w/ Soheil Prasad 3️⃣36:39 — Which would Dave pick? 🤔41:35 — [ VC secondary 101 w/ dave mcclure ] What is secondary? 🌈43:03 — Size of the market 📈44:53 — Why people buy/sell 🤷‍♂️47:41 — What are Secret Stallions 🐴48:45 — Three deal strategies 🧠[ links ][ invest = https://practicalvc.com ][ trading places socials = www.linktr.ee/tradingplacespod ][ aman verjee = https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee | https://x.com/amanverjee ][ dave mcclure = https://www.linkedin.com/in/davemcclure | https://x.com/davemcclure ]Thank you for watching#tradingplacespodcast #secondary101 #vcsecondary #davemcclure #anthropicstock
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  Anthropic at $900B, OpenAI Slipping | Sacra & Augment Power 20 Private Companies | Cohere Valuation | Ep 33 07.05.2026 1h 14min

  Anthropic is accelerating at a pace the tech world has never seen.In Episode 33 of Trading Places, Dave McClure, Aman Verjee, Marcelo Ballvé (Sacra), and Adam Crawley (Augment) break down the AI valuation frenzy, OpenAI’s growing pressure, hyperscaler spending, Cohere’s international AI strategy, and whether SpaceX’s trillion-dollar valuation has completely detached from fundamentals.Timestamps:[ tech and vc news ]00:53 – Iran hits markets 💥05:00 – Hyperscalers $700B AI CapEx 💸12:31 – Anthropic raises $50B at $900B+ 🚀13:51 – Musk vs Altman courthouse battle 🥊18:22 – OpenAI eyes 2027 IPO 👀21:35 – Cerebras IPO imminent 🏁23:18 – Founders Fund $6B with 25% GP commit 😮25:41 – Sierra raises $950M at $15.8B 🚀29:16 – GameStop bids $56B for eBay 💰31:39 – [ intvw: Marcelo Ballve @ SACRA + Adam Crawley @ Augment ]33:16 – Why Anthropic beat OpenAI 🏆35:35 – Defense tech crashes the top 20 🛡️41:06 – SpaceX at $2T — vibes or fundamentals? 🚀47:35 – Most stretched valuation on the list 😬54:51 – Retail VC fund trap 👎1:02:24 – AGI in 18 months? 🤖1:04:23 – [ valuation corner: Cohere @ $7B ]1:05:40 – Canadian roots and team 🇨🇦1:09:45 – Aleph Alpha German acquisition 🇩🇪1:10:01 – The anti-US & anti-China play 🙅‍♂️1:13:08 – second takes 😂[ links ][ invest = https://practicalvc.com ][ trading places socials = www.linktr.ee/tradingplacespod ][ adam crawley = https://www.linkedin.com/in/adam-crawley-b2146753/ | https://x.com/adamcrawley1 ][ augment = https://augment.market/ ][ marcelo ballvé = https://www.linkedin.com/in/marceloballve/ | https://x.com/ballve ][ sacra = http://sacra.com/ ][ aman verjee = https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee | https://x.com/amanverjee ][ dave mcclure = https://www.linkedin.com/in/davemcclure | https://x.com/davemcclure ]Thank you for watching**Please note: Inclusion in the Augment Power 20 does not predict future performance and should not be considered investment advice. For informational purposes only. Augment Markets, Inc. is a technology company offering software and data services with securities-related services offered through its wholly-owned but separately managed subsidiary Augment Capital, LLC, Member of FINRA/ SIPC. Read our full disclosure statement here.#tradingplacespodcast #sacra #augmentmarkets #davemcclure #cohere
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  Anthropic Hits $1T, OpenAI Struggling, Elon Reloads with $60B Cursor Deal | Trading Places Podcast E32 30.04.2026 47min

  Anthropic just crossed a $1 trillion valuation… and may have officially passed OpenAI.Meanwhile, Elon Musk is making moves—SpaceX is partnering with (and possibly acquiring) Cursor in a $60B deal, while OpenAI races to stay competitive with new releases like GPT-5.5 and Images 2.0.This week on Trading Places, Dave McClure and Aman Verjee break down one of the wildest weeks in AI, venture capital, and secondary markets:— The Fed shakeup and what it means for interest rates— Iran war tensions and global market implications— Anthropic’s meteoric rise past OpenAI— SpaceX’s massive AI bet with Cursor— OpenAI’s latest product push— AngelList opening venture capital to retail investors— The rise of prediction markets like Polymarket and KalshiPlus: a deep dive into Cursor—the fastest-growing SaaS company ever—and why SpaceX wants it.00:00 – cold open[ tech and vc news ]01:22 – Warsh fed chair moves Up 🪑03:52 – Iran war ends when 🤔06:15 – Anthropic $1T valuation 💰08:10 – Cursor & SpaceX engage 👰‍♀️14:21 – OpenAI launches GPT 5.5 + images 2.0 🚂17:54 – AngelList launches USVC 💸25:11 – Polymarket & Kalshi double down 🎲29:25 – [ valuation corner: Cursor @ $50B ] what is Cursor 🤖31:24 – CEO & MIT team 👥33:12 – Why SpaceX wants Cursor & vice versa 💍💒38:23 – early investors a16z + Thrive 🤑39:56 – Sam Bankman-Fried almost won big 🙅‍♂️[ spv: Equitybee ]44:27 – why we invested in Equitybee 🐝46:15 – how you can join the SPV 👍46:53 – spinal cap debut 🎶[ links: ][ equitybee SPV invest = https://practicalvc.com/eb ][ trading places socials = www.linktr.ee/tradingplacespod ][ aman verjee = https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee/ | https://x.com/amanverjee ][ dave mcclure = https://www.linkedin.com/in/davemcclure | https://x.com/davemcclure ]#cursorspacex #spacexcursor #venturecapital #secondarymarkets #secondaries
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  SpaceX, Saronic, and the New Era of Defense Tech Investing | Trading Places Podcast Ep31 22.04.2026 42min

  Markets hit all-time highs in 11 trading days. Someone shorted oil 20 minutes before Trump spoke. SpaceX wants to raise $75B at a $2T valuation. And an autonomous naval defense startup just hit a $9.25B valuation — and almost no one's talking about it.Dave and Aman break down the biggest stories in venture and tech: the OpenAI executive exodus, why Stripe and Databricks still won't IPO, the continuation vehicle boom reshaping VC fund structures, and a deep valuation dive on Saronic — the defense tech company building autonomous warships for the US Navy.Timestamps:00:00 — Cold open00:36 — Tech & VC news01:56 — OpenAI C-suite exodus 💨05:52 — Markets ATH despite Iran War 🚀11:56 — How to price the SpaceX IPO 🤔19:53 — Cerebras IPO is greenlit 🟢21:43 — VC top 15 mega raise 💰25:48 — Iconiq: celebrity wealth advisor to the stars 📸27:27 — Stripe, Databricks, Canva IPO mirage 👻30:15 — Continuation vehicle boom 🚖33:26 — Valuation Corner: Saronic @ $9.25B 🛳41:44 — Second takes[ links: ][ invest = https://practicalvc.com ][ trading places socials = www.linktr.ee/tradingplacespod ][ aman verjee = https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee/ | https://x.com/amanverjee ][ dave mcclure = https://www.linkedin.com/in/davemcclure | https://x.com/davemcclure ]#VentureCapital #SpaceXIPO #StartupValuation #TechInvesting #Saronic
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  Anthropic Passes OpenAI ($30B ARR), SpaceX Lost $5B & How EquityBee Unlocks Employee Equity | Ep. 30 14.04.2026 59min

  Trading Places is the only VC secondary podcast on the internet. Each week, Dave McClure and Aman Verjee break down the biggest stories in venture capital, tech, and private markets — with the insider perspective most shows don't have access to.This week's guest is Oren Barzilai, founder and CEO of EquityBee — the platform that funds startup employees' stock option exercises via forward contracts, giving them access to liquidity most never see.00:00 — cold open00:45 — [ tech and vc news ] 01:28 — Iran war vs. markets 💥 03:49 — OpenAI c-suite shakeup 🪇 05:29 — Anthropic $30B ARR goes BRRR 💸 10:48 — Claude Mythos mystery 🫆 13:47 — SpaceX financials leaked 🫗 16:13 — CoreWeave deal with Anthropic & Meta 🤝18:17 — [ intvw: Oren Barzilai @ EquityBee ]18:29 — What EquityBee does 🐝 21:08 — Who uses EquityBee 👤 31:02 — How much do people sell 💰 31:41 — Which secondary stock is most in demand 🫴 34:50 — Risks and rewards of stock options ⚠️🚀42:21 — PVC + EquityBee partnership 🙌49:08 — [ valuation corner: Whoop vs. Oura ]49:14 — Whoop vs. Oura use cases 🏃‍♂️50:50 — Whoop ideal customer 💪 52:22 — Oura ideal customer 💍 54:57 — Whoop vs. Oura financials 🧐 57:22 — Who IPOs first? 🏁[ links: ][ invest = https://practicalvc.com ][ trading places socials = www.linktr.ee/tradingplacespod ][ oren barzilai = https://www.linkedin.com/in/orenbarzilai/ | https://x.com/orenbarzilai ][ aman verjee = https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee/ | https://x.com/amanverjee ][ dave mcclure = https://www.linkedin.com/in/davemcclure | https://x.com/davemcclure ]#VentureCapital #DaveMcClure #AmanVerjee #equitybee #OrenBarzilai
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  SpaceX $2T IPO ?!? 🚀 Shield AI = next Anduril 🛩️ Shri Bhashyam Sydecar grows to $4B SPVs | Ep29 31.03.2026 1h 2min

  SpaceX just filed its confidential IPO prospectus — and prediction markets say it will be June 3rd, Elon's birthday, during a rare 6-planet alignment. Anthropic is on a generational heater — Opus 4.6, Cowork, enterprise momentum — while OpenAI cuts Sora and kills the Disney deal trying to find focus. Prediction markets now say Anthropic IPOs first, 60/40 chance.In Episode 29 of Trading Places, Dave McClure and Aman Verjee reshuffle the Private Mag7 – Anthropic jumps, OpenAI slides. Shield AI breaks into the conversation after closing at a $12.7B valuationJeff Bezos announces a $100B AI manufacturing fund — and Dave says it's 100% getting raised, probably oversubscribed.The Meta/YouTube social media addiction verdict that spooked the entire tech sector.Plus a deep dive with Shri Bhashyam, COO of Sydecar, on how SPVs are becoming a permanent part of every investor's toolkit — and why layered SPVs aren't always the villain people think they are.Timestamps:00:00 — cold open00:49 — [ tech and vc news ]00:49 — #7 of private Mag702:21 — Iran war end when03:35 — Why June for SpaceX IPO05:34 — First to go public: Anthropic or OpenAI10:23 — Bezos seeks $100B14:02 — Meta & YouTube found liable19:12 — Ex-Kalshi launch 5cc21:27 — [ intvw: Shri Bhashyam @ Sydecar]21:52 — Forge ➡️ EquityZen24:22 — SPV secondaries vs primaries29:04 — Trajectory to $4B AUA41:40 — SPV fee structure warning51:05 — DEAL act to set privates free54:50 — [ valuation corner: Shield AI @ $12.7B ] 55:59 — Shield AI marvel story56:40 — What Shield AI does57:41 — Anduril playbook1:01:04 — Future of defense tech1:02:02 — second takes[ links: ][ invest = https://practicalvc.com ][ trading places socials = www.linktr.ee/tradingplacespod ][ aman verjee = / aman-verjee | https://x.com/amanverjee ][ dave mcclure = / davemcclure | https://x.com/davemcclure ][ shri bhashyam = / davemcclure | https://x.com/ShriBhashyam ]
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  Polymarket vs Kalshi ($20B), OpenAI vs Anthropic (IPO?), Tesla & SpaceX create Austin Terafab | Ep28 25.03.2026 31min

  Dave and Aman break down a packed week in VC and tech — from macro headwinds threatening the IPO window to the big question of whether SpaceX and Tesla are quietly becoming one company.The Private Mag7 gets a full ranking debate: SpaceX is comfortably #1 at over a trillion, but Anduril's surprise $20B DoD contract has it punching into the top three. OpenAI just raised the biggest private round ever — so why is the CMO telling everyone to stop doing side quests?Valuation Corner goes deep on the prediction market arms race. Kalshi hit $260M revenue in 2025 and is now running at a $1.5B run rate. Polymarket is still early on monetization but sitting on massive on-chain activity. Both just crossed $20B valuations. Dave and Aman stack them up against DraftKings and FanDuel — and make their call.Plus: Kraken pulls its IPO, PayPal finally launches stablecoins in 70 countries, and a $55M prop bet on Cardi B turns into a legal mess.00:00 — cold open[ tech and vc news ] 0:33 — "you shall not pass" straits of hormuz ✋2:58 — private mag7 rankings 🏆6:04 — elon terafab in austin 🔋7:21 — Tesla x SpaceX super merger? 🤝10:26 — OpenAI abandons sidequests 🫳11:41 — who will take no. 7 🔔14:57 — Kraken freezes IPO plan 🥶16:25 — PayPal expands stablecoin 🌏[ valuation corner: prediction markets ] 18:07 — Kalshi vs. Polymarket 🥊20:15 — the incumbents: DraftKings & FanDuel 👴🏻27:42 — which is best bet? 💰28:40 — the tale of cardi b 💃30:45 — second takes[ links: ][ invest = https://practicalvc.com ][ trading places socials = www.linktr.ee/tradingplacespod ][ aman verjee = https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee | https://x.com/amanverjee ][ dave mcclure = https://www.linkedin.com/in/davemcclure | https://x.com/davemcclure ]#VentureCapital #DaveMcclure #AmanVerjee #TradingPlacesPodcast
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  Nvidia $4.4T vs Cerebras $23B Val | Why Private Prices Are Wrong with Nick Fusco of PM Insights | Episode 27 18.03.2026 1h 12min

  Episode 27 of Trading Places asks a simple question:Are we pricing AI companies completely wrong?This week, Dave McClure and Aman Verjee are joined by Nick Fusco, founder of PM Insights, a private markets intelligence platform focused on tracking valuations, secondaries, and what assets are actually trading for beneath the surface.From Cerebras at $23B to Nvidia at $4.4T, the spread in valuations is massive — but the underlying dynamics are even more confusing.Meanwhile, Anthropic is adding $5B in ARR in a single month, robotics startups are raising at extreme multiples, and secondary markets are quietly revealing what assets are actually worth.So what’s real… and what’s mispriced?If you’re investing, building, or just trying to understand AI right now — this episode breaks down where the market might be getting it wrong.Timestamps:00:00 — cold open00:50 — [ tech & vc news ]00:50 — Private Mag 7 + 3 Impostors 🧐04:34 — Anthropic vs OpenAI 🥊05:23 — Figure Robotics $39B val 🤪08:00 — Iran: Straits of Hormuz vs. Price of Oil 🔮15:00 — Oracle & Meta Layoffs 🚶‍♂️‍➡️19:43 — VC MAG 7 🏆28:11 — Atoms: Travis is BACK 🤖30:20 — Mind Robotics raises $500M 💰31:17 — Replit $9B val 💸33:16 — [ intvw: Nick Fusco, PM Insights ]From public to private markets 🙇‍♂️41:05 — Their competitive advantage 💪42:40 — Databricks example 📝49:58 — Down rounds and repricing 📉1:02:43 — SpaceX IPO & Robinhood private stock 🤔[ val corner: Cerebras @ $23B ] 1:04:17 — Cerebras vs NVIDIA 🤺1:06:37 — 5x revenue in one year 📈1:07:01 — S1 weakness 💣1:12:05 — second takes[ links: ][ invest = https://practicalvc.com ][ trading places socials = www.linktr.ee/tradingplacespod ][ nick fusco = https://www.linkedin.com/in/nickfusco/ | ][ PM insights = https://www.pminsights.com/ | https://x.com/P_M_Insights | https://www.linkedin.com/company/pm-insights/ ][ aman verjee = https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee | https://x.com/amanverjee ][ dave mcclure = https://www.linkedin.com/in/davemcclure | https://x.com/davemcclure ]#VentureCapital #PrivateMarkets #SecondaryMarkets #TradingPlacesPodcast
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  Iran Tanks IPOs | 2026 VC Outlook with PitchBook & CB Insights | ByteDance @ $550B | Ep26 10.03.2026 1h 13min

  Dave and Aman break down how the Iran conflict is rattling markets — and what oil futures backwardation is signaling about how long it lasts.Then: Anduril closes at a $60B valuation (a portfolio company for Dave and Aman — they got in at $14B), Palmer Luckey vs. Dario Amodei, Anthropic getting flagged as a supply chain risk by the Pentagon, Kraken connecting to the Fed, Robinhood's $RVI fund underwhelming at launch, and the secondary market hitting a record $226B in 2025.We bring in Emily Zheng (PitchBook) and Jason Saltzman (CB Insights) for a deep data dive: 53% of unicorns are worse off year-over-year, AI companies are raising multiple rounds within 12 months, and LP appetite isn't coming back fully in 2026. Plus their bold predictions for the year ahead.And in Val Corner: Aman goes solo to break down ByteDance at $550B — a full sum-of-parts across Douyin, TikTok International, and TikTok US. Was it a bargain at $330B last fall? Is $550B the right price now? Spoiler: China still controls the algorithm — and gets paid 20% of TikTok US revenue to prove it.00:00 - cold open00:53 - [ tech & vc news ] 01:04 - Augment Power 20 🏆01:53 - Anduril $4B raise on $60B 🛸03:00 - Palmer Luckey vs Dario Amodei 🤼‍♂️06:30 - Iran war shocks NASDAQ, oil, & IPO markets 💥🛢️11:28 - Can Cerebras IPO in 2026? 🤷‍♂️13:27 - Robinhood public VC fund $RVI launch 🏁16:51 - Secondary deals hit $226B in 2025 🚀20:17 - Decagon tender offer @ $4.5B 💰25:09 - Kraken connects to Fed 🐙27:46 - [ intvw: Emily Zheng & Jason Saltzman ] 28:23 - Emily gives Pitchbook 2025 recap 🙇🏻‍♀️31:36 - Jason gives CB Insights 2025 recap 🙇‍♂️35:50 - Emily gives Pitchbook 2026 predictions 🔮57:53 - Jason gives CB Insights 2026 predictions 🔮1:00:56 - [ val corner: ByteDance @ $550B ] 1:01:20 - Sum of Parts analysis 🧩1:05:09 - What is TikTok US worth? 💃1:09:33 - China still controls algorithm 🇨🇳1:12:53 - second takes 😂links:[ invest = https://practicalvc.com ][ trading places socials = www.linktr.ee/tradingplacespod ][ emily zheng = https://www.linkedin.com/in/emzheng/ | https://x.com/EMZheng47 ][ pitchbook = https://pitchbook.com/news/author/emily-zheng ][ jason saltzman = https://www.linkedin.com/in/jason-salt/ | https://x.com/saltzman_jason ][ CB insights = https://www.cbinsights.com/ ][ aman verjee = https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee | https://x.com/amanverjee ][ dave mcclure = https://www.linkedin.com/in/davemcclure | https://x.com/davemcclure ]#venturecapital #secondaries #secondarymarkets #tradingplacespod #davemcclure #amanverjee #pitchbook #cbinsights
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  OpenAI $110B Raise, Stripe at $159B, and the Donor Money Tax Hack VCs Use | Trading Places Podcast E25 04.03.2026 1h 11min

  OpenAI just closed a historic $110B funding round — the largest private raise ever.At the same time:• Stripe surged to a $159B valuation• Anthropic is selling $6B of employee shares• The Pentagon reportedly blocked Anthropic from defense work• Sam Altman quickly picked up a DoD AI contract• ByteDance hit a $550B valuation• And Jack Dorsey laid off 4,000 employees citing AI productivityWelcome to Episode 25 of Trading Places, where Dave McClure and Aman Verjee break down the biggest stories in venture capital, AI, and private markets.In Valuation Corner, we analyze why Stripe now commands a $159B valuation — and whether PayPal could become an acquisition target.Then we’re joined by Daniel Blake (UI Charitable) to explain a powerful strategy many founders and investors overlook:How Donor-Advised Funds (DAFs) can turn illiquid startup equity, fund interests, or crypto into major tax deductions.If you’re a founder, VC, or startup employee sitting on paper wealth, this episode is worth watching.___________________________________________________________00:00 - cold open00:47 - [ tech & vc news ]02:07 -⁠ ⁠OpenAI historic $110B raise 😲06:14 - Anthropic $6B staff share sale 🕺07:45 -⁠ ⁠Pentagon cancels Anthropic 🧨11:08 -⁠ ⁠Sam Altman grabs DoD AI bag💥14:26 -⁠ ⁠SaaSpocalypse update 📉18:20 -⁠ ⁠Jack Dorsey lays off 4,000 🚶‍➡️21:37 -⁠ ⁠ByteDance @ $550B 💃24:11 - ⁠Plaid tender offer @ $8B 🔒25:49 -⁠ ⁠Robinhood $1B private fund 🤺27:24 - [ val corner: Stripe @ $159B ] 29:58 -⁠ ⁠Competitive analysis 💪32:40 -⁠ ⁠PayPal acquisition target 🎯39:23 - [ intvw: Daniel Blake - UI Charitable ] 40:09 - introducing Daniel Blake and UI Charitable 👋40:43 - the problem with selling privately held complex assets 🧐42:39 - intro to Donor-Advised Funds 🤲49:03 - DAFs for founders + employees 1️⃣52:10 - DAFs for investors 2️⃣1:01:54 - donate your crypto holdings 💛1:03:43 - not all DAFs are created equal ≠1:05:07 - case studies 📖1:10:20 - get in touch with UI Charitable 📞1:10:43 - second takes___________________________________________________________[ links ][ invest = https://practicalvc.com ][ trading places socials = www.linktr.ee/tradingplacespod ][ daniel blake = https://www.linkedin.com/in/drblake/ ] [ donor-advised fund info = https://www.uicharitable.org/ ][aman verjee = https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee | https://x.com/amanverjee ] [dave mcclure = https://www.linkedin.com/in/davemcclure | https://x.com/davemcclure ] *This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice.#VentureCapital #OpenAI #Stripe #Startups #AI #PrivateMarkets #TechNews