NatSec Matters

Epizode

• The Geopolitical Stakes of Frontier AI: Dr. Dr. Divyansh Kaushik 01.07.2026 56min

  Special guest host Klon Kitchen, Managing Director for the Global Technology Policy Practice at Beacon Global Strategies, is joined by Dr. Divyansh Kaushik, machine learning expert and BGS Vice President, to analyze the trajectory of frontier artificial intelligence. They explore the rapid shift to reasoning models like Anthropic's Mythos, which autonomously solve complex software problems and uncover deep cybersecurity risks. They also discuss "recursive self-improvement"—the threshold where AI begins autonomously coding and training its own next-generation pipelines—as well as the strategic risks posed by Chinese open-source models and the national security challenge of the world's most advanced scientific labs being privately owned.
• Deciphering the Iran Ceasefire: Amb. Jeffrey Feltman 24.06.2026 43min

  Andrew Shapiro is joined by Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman, whose distinguished diplomatic career includes serving as U.N. Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs and Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs. Amb. Feltman, now a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution, discusses the fragile state of the U.S.–Iran ceasefire and progress toward talks for a long-term diplomatic agreement. He assesses Iran's core objectives, the strategic sidelining of Israel, and how Tehran's survival alters the calculus for Russia and China in global geopolitics. Amb. Feltman also maps out a "new normal" for the region defined by cliffhanging diplomatic extensions and localized proxy skirmishes rather than a definitive peace.
• Backyard Hegemony - Reasserting U.S. Influence in the Western Hemisphere: David Shedd 17.06.2026 50min

  Michael is joined by David Shedd, former Acting Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency and a veteran intelligence officer, for a comprehensive look at the shifting geopolitical dynamics across Latin America. David discusses the structural collapse of Cuba and the outlook for U.S. intervention, the delicate execution of the administration's plan for Venezuela, and the profound strategic challenges posed by Chinese investments in the U.S. backyard. He also explores the sharp friction points surfacing within the U.S.–Mexico relationship and the reality of behind-the-scenes intelligence sharing.
• 'Leapfrogging' Diplomacy: Dr. Nadia Schadlow 10.06.2026 53min

  Michael is joined by Dr. Nadia Schadlow, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute and former Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategy, to discuss the architecture of U.S. global power amid fast-moving crises in the Mideast, China, and Ukraine. Dr. Schadlow provides a compelling assessment of how the administration is utilizing a disruptive, iconoclastic approach to confront years of slow, multilateral processing and force rapid diplomatic end states.
• The Price of Peace in Iran: Richard Nephew 31.05.2026 41min

  Michael is joined by Richard Nephew, Senior Research Scholar at Columbia University and former Director for Iran at the National Security Council, to examine the fragile state of the U.S.–Iran ceasefire and the looming terms of a potential memorandum of understanding (MOU). Richard shares his concerns about the current trajectory of negotiations, warning that Washington is at risk of overpaying with massive sanctions relief without securing a durable, verifiable nuclear agreement. Richard also helps unravel the strategic and economic fallout of the crisis, examining the potential long-term impact of costly oil and how the conflict has shifted Iran's strategic calculus toward a more aggressive, risk-tolerant posture.  
• Reading Between the Lines - What's Hidden in the New Iran Agreement: Dr. Rebeccah L. Heinrichs and Rich Goldberg 27.05.2026 56min

  Michael is joined by Dr. Rebeccah L. Heinrichs, Senior Fellow and Director of the Keystone Defense Initiative at the Hudson Institute, and Rich Goldberg, Senior Advisor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, to pull back the curtain on the still-unreleased U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding to end the war. They explore the hidden risks of a premature diplomatic off-ramp, with Dr. Heinrichs and Mr. Goldberg analyzing why a partial deal could squander the historic geopolitical momentum built up over weeks of military pressure. Finally, they map out a definitive theory of victory, evaluating the operational steps the U.S. could take to forcibly dismantle Tehran's nuclear program.
• Operation Epic Fury 2?: Adm. Robert Harward 20.05.2026 1h 1min

  Michael Allen is joined by Admiral (Ret.) Robert "Bob" Harward, former Deputy Commander of CENTCOM and a retired Navy SEAL, for an intensely candid look at what he believes the ultimate end state of the Iran conflict should look like. Drawing on his distinguished military career and the unique perspective of having lived in Tehran during his youth, Admiral Harward rejects the cautious consensus of Washington skeptics. Instead, he doubles down on the strategic necessity of driving toward total regime change, arguing that the U.S. holds a historic opportunity to decisively alter the global order.
• Special Episode - The Political Firestorm at 10 Downing Street: Dr. Alan Mendoza 15.05.2026 52min

  Michael is joined by Dr. Alan Mendoza, Chief Advisor for Global Affairs for the U.K.'s Reform Party, to explain the political firestorm engulfing Prime Minister Keir Starmer and his Labour Party. Dr. Mendoza provides an insider's look at the mounting pressure on Starmer and the momentum behind the Reform Party and firebrand Nigel Farage following recent local election results. He explores the last decade of tectonic shifts in British politics—from the decline of the Conservative Party to the potential for a radical hybrid coalition that could reshape the country's leadership. Dr. Mendoza also analyzes the "Special Relationship" between the U.S. and U.K. through the lens of the Iran war, discussing the growing consternation in Europe and the strategic role Britain must play as Washington navigates a volatile Middle East.
• Trump's Beijing Detour & China's Role in the Iran Endgame: Craig Singleton 13.05.2026 39min

  Michael is joined by Craig Singleton, Senior Director of the China Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, to preview the long-delayed summit between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping this week. With the war in Iran looming over the meeting, Craig discusses whether Beijing will leverage its influence over Tehran as a bargaining chip or continue to provide the regime with a critical economic lifeline. He also focuses on the unbalanced dependencies that define the U.S.-China relationship—from the weaponization of trade to the national security risks posed by Chinese dominance in the battery and electric vehicle markets. Craig also explains what China's plans could be for Taiwan, and why the U.S. can't build its next industrial economy on supply chains controlled by Beijing. 
• The Hormuz Hotline: Eddie Fishman 05.05.2026 57min

  Michael is joined by Eddie Fishman, Director of the Maurice R. Greenberg Center for Geoeconomics at the Council on Foreign Relations and a former State Department sanctions expert, to discuss the Trump administration's shift toward a "last-ditch" diplomatic and geoeconomic effort to resolve the Iran conflict. Eddie evaluates the effectiveness of the US Navy's new "guiding" mission in the Strait of Hormuz and whether a peaceful reopening of the waterway is actually scalable. Eddie also discusses the financial lifelines to Iran from continued trade through the Strait and the alternative oil exports the country is attempting, along with the ongoing impact on Europe and Asia.  
• Blockade Brinkmanship: Richard Fontaine 29.04.2026 57min

  Michael welcomes Richard Fontaine, CEO of the Center for a New American Security, to evaluate the sustainability of the US economic blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and the realistic prospects for a nuclear breakthrough with Iran. Richard provides a reality check on the administration's declarations of victory, explaining why a meaningful nuclear agreement remains weeks, if not months, away. He explores the likelihood of a blockade-for-blockade swap and the potential for a narrow, three-to-four page framework to replace the sprawling agreements of the past. Finally, Richard assesses how Beijing could be evaluating US positioning and maritime pressure in the region.
• The Iranian 'Escalation Trap': Gen. Joseph Votel 22.04.2026 44min

  Michael is joined by Gen. (Ret.) Joseph Votel, former CENTCOM Commander, to examine the high-pressure maneuvering between Washington and Tehran amid the recently extended Mideast ceasefire. Gen. Votel warns of a looming "escalation trap" as the US and Iran navigate a delicate truce. He also provides a candid assessment of a potential second round of negotiations in Islamabad and explains why the US must now work harder than ever on the diplomatic and strategic communications fronts to avoid a return to full-scale hostilities.
• The Deal-Maker's Dilemma: Richard Nephew 16.04.2026 55min

  Former NSC Director for Iran Richard Nephew returns to NatSec Matters to discuss the tactical and economic shifts in the Mideast conflict. Richard, a senior research scholar at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy, gives Michael a candid assessment of the military campaign so far, highlighting the sophistication of allied coordination while questioning whether U.S. tactics are translating into long-term strategic success. Richard also discusses the outlook for the current ceasefire and evaluates what concessions Washington might allow Tehran in order to cut a deal.
• The New Status Quo in the Strait of Hormuz: Roger Zakheim & Rich Goldberg 14.04.2026 38min

  Michael is joined by Roger Zakheim, Washington Director of the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation, and Rich Goldberg, Senior Advisor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, to discuss the high-stakes blockade of Iranian ports by the US Navy. Following a busy weekend in Islamabad that failed to yield a long-term resolution to the Mideast conflict, the trio gathered Monday to analyze the shift from kinetic strikes to a total maritime strangulation of the Iranian economy and what it means for the regime's survival. Roger and Rich also discuss the realistic prospects for a future diplomatic agreement and the outlook for impacts on the global energy trade.
• President Trump's Latest Ultimatum to Iran: Adm. Chris Grady 06.04.2026 47min

  Michael sits down with Admiral (Ret.) Chris Grady, former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, to break down the tactical evolution of the Iran conflict following President Trump's recent address to the nation. Admiral Grady provides an insider's perspective on the new deadline the President has announced for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face devastating new strikes. He also explains the strategic calculus behind targeting Iran's energy infrastructure and deeply buried "missile cities." The conversation, recorded on April 3, 2026, explores the sophisticated "ecosystem" of Iranian defiance—from the mixing of missile propellant to the naval mechanics required to "cut the tail off the scorpion" and neutralize threats across the region's islands. Finally, Admiral Grady reflects on his time at the Bush National Security Council to explain how the U.S. is utilizing specialized assets like bunker busters to ensure the Iranian regime cannot threaten global security for a generation.
• Emergency Podcast - Decoding the President's Iran Address: Matt Kroenig 02.04.2026 27min

  In this special episode, Michael discusses President Trump's primetime address to the nation on the Iran war with Matt Kroenig, Vice President for Geostrategy at the Atlantic Council. Matt offers his reaction to the President's forward-looking timeline and the administration's strategic claim that the conflict's final objectives are now within sight. He also assesses the likelihood of a ground invasion and how Iran might utilize "denial" attacks to fight back. Finally, Matt weighs in on shifting global alliances, including the impact of Elon Musk's decision to sever Russia's access to Starlink.
• Ukraine's Persistence, Baltic 'Gray Zone' Attacks & Russia's Weak Spots: Mark Montgomery 01.04.2026 42min

  Michael speaks with Rear Admiral (Ret.) Mark Montgomery, Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, following his recent trip to Ukraine. Admiral Montgomery explores the warfare strategies currently defining the conflict, as well as the evolving "gray zone" tactics Russia is employing against the Baltics. He also identifies critical weak spots in the Russian military machine, from logistical vulnerabilities to strategic anxieties, and provides a sobering assessment of the "ground situation" in Ukraine. Finally, Admiral Montgomery explains why the war could realistically continue for another three years and what the US must do to maintain the defense of its allies in the face of persistent Russian aggression.  
• Off-Ramp or Escalator - The Iranian Regime's Final Act?: Dr. Seth Jones 25.03.2026 45min

  Michael speaks with Dr. Seth Jones, president of CSIS's Defense and Security Department, to analyze a critical moment in the Iran conflict: are we headed for a diplomatic off-ramp or a rapid escalation toward regime change? Dr. Jones assesses the degradation of Iran's naval and drone capabilities and explains why the current campaign has successfully reset the regional balance of power. However, he also explores the "buying time" strategy of Iranian diplomacy and the increasing pressure from Gulf states to see the regime ended as it continues to strike commercial and energy targets. Finally, Dr. Jones examines the tactical shift in Israeli targeting and what it means for the long-term survival of the IRGC.
• Israel's Strategic Reset: Yaakov Katz 20.03.2026 48min

  Michael speaks with Yaakov Katz, former editor-in-chief of the Jerusalem Post and author of "While Israel Slept", about the profound shift in the Israeli perspective as the focus of the war moves from regional proxies to a direct conflict with Iran. Yaakov explains why a majority of Israelis now support this military campaign, viewing it as a "unique historical opportunity" to dismantle the source of regional instability. He also examines the influence of President Trump on Israel's strategic calculus and offers a candid assessment of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's dramatic political comeback following the October 7th attacks.
• The Hormuz Pressure Cooker and Oil Price Roulette: Clay Seigle & Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery 18.03.2026 53min

  In this special episode, Michael zeroes in on the potential for a collapse in global energy security amid the U.S.-Israel war with Iran. First, he speaks with Clay Seigle, a senior energy security fellow at CSIS, about the economic impact of the dangerous choke point at the Straits of Hormuz, where a paralyzed trade is threatening to send global oil prices soaring. Clay also analyzes the strategic implications of U.S. strikes on military infrastructure at Iran's key oil depot on Kharg Island. Then, Rear Admiral (Ret.) Mark Montgomery, Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), breaks down the high-stakes naval mechanics of reopening the Straits and why the U.S. must reset Iran's nuclear and ballistic capabilities by "five or seven years" to ensure long-term regional stability.