Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?

Epizode

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  Why Should We Care if China Won’t Restrain its Flood of Exports? | with Wendy Cutler 24.07.2026 49min

  China posted a record $1.2 trillion global trade surplus in 2025, and its export machine is still accelerating. From electric vehicles and batteries to electronics and household goods, Chinese products are pouring into markets across Europe, Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America.Consumers may welcome better products at lower prices, but what happens when local manufacturers cannot compete, workers lose their jobs, and countries become dependent on Beijing for essential goods?This week, co-hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso welcome Wendy Cutler, Senior Vice President of the Asia Society Policy Institute and a former U.S. trade negotiator who spent nearly three decades at the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.Wendy explains how government support allows Chinese companies to keep producing even when markets are saturated. Beijing rejects the idea that it has an overcapacity problem, and Wendy argues that negotiations cannot succeed when the two sides cannot even agree that a problem exists. Her solution is a coordinated response by the major economies receiving these exports.In this episode:How China’s industrial policies help its companies outlast foreign competitorsWhy U.S. tariffs redirected Chinese exports toward Europe and Southeast Asia instead of slowing them downHow cheap imports can destroy local businesses, eliminate jobs, and create dangerous dependenciesWhy the U.S., Europe, Japan, Korea, Australia and Southeast Asia must act together to change Beijing’s calculationsHow China weaponizes its control of critical minerals, rare earths, and permanent magnetsWhy Washington’s tariffs against allies could undermine the coalition it needsHow developing economies can defend local industries without losing access to the Chinese marketWhether the fragile U.S.-China trade truce can survive as both sides test its limitsWhy today’s low prices could become tomorrow’s strategic vulnerabilitiesWendy’s candid reflections on three decades at the negotiating tableSubscribe for your weekly Indo-Pacific briefing.Follow Wendy Cutler on at the Asia Society Policy Institute, on LinkedIn or on X, @wendyscutlerFollow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn or FacebookFollow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLightFollow Jim Carouso on LinkedInSponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific
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  Why Should We Care if China is Salami-Slicing Its Way Out of the First Island Chain? | with Brad Lendon 17.07.2026 50min

  For the first time, China's coast guard is asserting sovereignty over waters beyond the First Island Chain and out in the open Pacific, far to the east of Taiwan. To justify it, a hastily assembled group of Chinese academics has suddenly declared that the Philippines' northernmost (and very much inhabited) Batanes island province actually belongs to China.Is this a dangerous new escalation or just another day in East Asia’s highly contested maritime gray zone?This week, co-hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso flip the script and put a reporter in the guest chair: Brad Lendon, CNN's Senior News Desk Reporter for Global Military Affairs, who's covered China's maritime rise for over a decade and authored the June 25 story that sparked this conversation, “‘Salami slicing’: How China is trying to increase control in the Pacific”Brad makes the case that this "salami slicing" is nothing new. Beijing has spent years applying steady, below-the-threshold pressure using white-hulled coast guard ships rather than navy gray-hulls. But now those ships are radio-challenging commercial vessels east of Taiwan, mapping the seabed and settling in for what looks like a permanent presence outside the First Island Chain.In this episode:Why coast guard "law enforcement" ships are a more insidious tool for asserting sovereignty than warshipsWhat China's radio challenges to commercial ships could be rehearsing, and Ray's "boa constrictor" warning about a soft quarantine of Taiwan already beginningHow the out-of-nowhere Batanes claim fits Beijing's long-game strategyWhether the Japan-Philippine maritime delimitation talks were a real trigger or just a convenient pretextWhat it all means for the U.S. defense strategy built around the First Island Chain, and whether it's the right tool for a non-military threatBrad's unforgettable story from the bridge of a Canadian frigate threading the Taiwan Strait at midnightA sharp, practitioner-level look at how the map of the Western Pacific is being quietly redrawn one slice at a time.Subscribe for your weekly Indo-Pacific briefing.Follow Brad Lendon’s reporting on CNN or on X, @BradLendonFollow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn or FacebookFollow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLightFollow Jim Carouso on LinkedInSponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific
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  Why Should We Care About Rising Dissent in China? | with Kevin Slaten 10.07.2026 55min

  We picture China as a place where no one dares speak out, but the reality is quite different. In 2025, despite one of the most sophisticated censorship machines on earth, workers protested over unpaid wages, homebuyers demanded stalled apartments, and rural communities pushed back against land dispossession. In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with Kevin Slaten, who leads Freedom House’s China Dissent Monitor, the only public database tracking protests across China, from its office in Taipei. Slaten’s team recorded about 40 to 50 percent more dissent in 2025 than the year before, including the largest pre-Lunar New Year labor protest peak the project has ever recorded. The twist: US budget cuts had recently knocked the project offline for four months, and it still came back with a skeleton crew to record its highest numbers yet. Fewest resources ever, most dissent ever recorded.Slaten explains what more than 15,000 cases reveal about the real China beneath the propaganda--an economy under strain, a “social contract” that may never have been one, and why even “local” protests matter politically in an authoritarian system. He also unpacks who protests and why, where Beijing’s red lines fall, and how protest pressure can actually produce real concessions, from policy reversals to quiet legal changes.Key topics:Why dissent is rising even as China tightens censorshipWho is protesting: workers, homebuyers, rural residents, and moreHow Beijing decides what to tolerate, censor, or crushThe 2022 White Paper protests: anomaly or symptom?A school bullying case that spiraled into crowds chanting “we want democracy”If you want to understand where China is really heading, pay attention to the people already demanding change.Subscribe for your weekly Indo-Pacific briefing.Follow Kevin Slaten on X, @KevinSlaten, or on LinkedIn Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn or FacebookFollow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLightFollow Jim Carouso on LinkedInSponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific
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  Why Should We Care if a U.S.-India Alliance is Achievable? | with Kurt Campbell 03.07.2026 53min

  What if the most important strategic relationship of the 21st century is the one Washington is actively damaging? In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with Kurt Campbell - former Deputy Secretary of State, President Biden's "Asia czar," a key figure in building the modern Quad, and founder of The Asia Group - to ask whether the U.S. and India can move beyond damage control toward something far more ambitious: a new kind of alliance.Last year, U.S.-India ties hit their lowest point in a quarter century: 50% tariffs over India's Russian oil purchases, a tilt toward Pakistan, and a sharp breakdown of trust. Yet at that very low point, Campbell and Jake Sullivan published "The Case for a U.S. Alliance With India" in Foreign Affairs, warning Washington risked driving India into its adversaries' arms.Drawing on decades of firsthand diplomacy, Campbell offers a candid insider's read on what went wrong and what might still go right. He reveals why Pakistan has out-maneuvered India in navigating the Trump White House, why his own successor's speech in Delhi drew audible gasps from the audience, and why India's celebrated "strategic autonomy" masks a quiet but unmistakable tilt toward the West.In this episode:Why Campbell calls India America's most consequential 21st-century partner, and what "escape velocity" meansHow he and Sullivan are trying to recast what "alliance" means for a country that will never host U.S. basesHow Pakistan adapted to Trump-era diplomacy more effectively than IndiaThe surprising story of how India went from reluctant Quad participant to its driving forceHow India quietly cut its reliance on Russian arms from 80% to under 40%Campbell's new Asia Group report on the Strait of Hormuz crisis and why it's hitting the Indo-Pacific harder than markets expectHis warning that the South China Sea, not Taiwan, is the likeliest flashpoint for miscalculationFollow and subscribe for your weekly Indo-Pacific briefing.Follow Kurt Campbell at The Asia Group or on LinkedIn.Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn or FacebookFollow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLightFollow Jim Carouso on LinkedInSponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific
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  Why Should We Care About Why Journalists are Leaving China? | with Yoko Kubota 26.06.2026 52min

  The day her BYD rideshare driver told her the dashboard screen was a “national secret” … that's when Wall Street Journal correspondent Yoko Kubota knew China had really changed, and maybe it was time to think about leaving.What does the world lose when fewer foreign journalists are reporting from inside China? In this episode, hosts Ray Powell (35-year military veteran) and Jim Carouso (former senior U.S. diplomat) sit down with Yoko Kubota, who spent eight years in Beijing before leaving China and writing a striking farewell column about a society growing alarmingly suspicious of outsiders.From that small, telling BYD moment, Yoko traces how a tightening espionage law, national-security messaging, and rising nationalism seeped into everyday life. As a Japanese reporter for an American paper, she also describes the anti-Japanese sentiment she and her family encountered, from a parents' school chat group to the phrases her young son began repeating, and how the 2024 attacks on Japanese children in Suzhou and Shenzhen deepened her fears.The conversation also digs into her business beat:Why on-the-ground reporting from inside China still matters and what we lose as it dries upWhy China can be both increasingly confident and deeply wary of outside scrutinyHow China's EV industry went from a punchline to a global powerhouse, and the "zombie" carmakers left in its wakeWhy the race for self-driving cars may come down to regulation as much as technologyWith the press corps thinning – underscored by the recent expulsion of New York Times reporter Vivian Wang – this is an on-the-ground account of an increasingly inaccessible country that still, as Yoko puts it, "won't go away from our lives."Subscribe for your weekly Indo-Pacific briefing.Follow Yoko Kubota on her page at the Wall Street Journal, on LinkedIn or on X, @Kubota_Yoko Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or FacebookFollow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLightFollow Jim Carouso on LinkedInSponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific
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  Why Should We Care How Indo-Pacific Allies Manage a Volatile and Distracted America? | with Marise Payne 19.06.2026 52min

  Washington is engaging plenty with its Indo-Pacific allies these days … just not always on the things they want, and too often on things they don't. So how do savvy allies steer that relationship when the world's most powerful partner feels less predictable than ever?To find out, Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with Marise Payne, Australia's former Defence Minister and Foreign Minister. Marise helped launch AUKUS and grow the Quad, and navigated the first Trump administration from both chairs. Now a distinguished visiting fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution, Payne brings rare insider perspective on how middle powers keep America engaged and what they must build for themselves when it drifts.In a wide-ranging conversation, Payne unpacks:Why "fewer Shangri-Las, more submarines" sets up a false choice, and why showing up still mattersThe AUKUS reality check: what the shift from the "optimal pathway" means, and the social license challenge facing CanberraWhether Pillar One is now on a "suboptimal pathway," and the case for driving Pillar Two harderHow the Quad found its feet again after COVID, and why the New Delhi foreign ministers' meeting mattersReassuring a skeptical ASEAN on nuclear submarines, and the relationship-first diplomacy that made it workChina's "do as I say, not as I do" stance on Japan's remilitarizationThe contrast between leading Defence and Foreign Affairs: "straight lines" versus "grasping at wisps of smoke"It's a practitioner's masterclass in alliance management for an era of strategic uncertainty. Essential listening for anyone tracking US-China competition, AUKUS, national defense, diplomacy and the future of the Indo-Pacific.Follow Marise Payne on Facebook Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or FacebookFollow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLightFollow Jim Carouso on LinkedInSponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific
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  Why Should We Care if Vietnam is Swinging Toward China? | with Dr. Nguyễn Khắc Giang 12.06.2026 50min

  Is Vietnam quietly drifting into China's orbit, and what does that mean for the United States and the future of Southeast Asia? Dr. Nguyễn Khắc Giang explains why Hanoi is hedging harder than ever because, as the Vietnamese saying goes, "when the buffaloes and oxen lock horns, the mosquitoes and flies suffer."In this episode, Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with Dr. Giang, Visiting Fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, to unpack his provocative Carnegie essay, "Why Vietnam Is Swinging in China's Direction." Giang argues that Vietnam isn't becoming pro-China, it's hedging in a world where US policy feels unpredictable and China is offering concrete benefits: market access, infrastructure, technology, and political reassurance.The conversation moves from geopolitics to economics: US tariffs, transshipment concerns, Vietnam's export boom, and the risk of being crushed between Washington and Beijing. Giang explains Vietnam's delicate formula: stay close enough to China to manage the relationship, but distant enough to preserve its independence.Ray and Jim also dig into Vietnam's defense strategy and its slow move beyond Russian weapons, then go inside Vietnamese politics under General Secretary Tô Lâm, whose consolidation of power is making foreign policy faster, more personal, and more ambitious.In this episode:Why Vietnam is one of Asia's most important "swing states"US tariffs, transshipment, and Vietnam's export boomChina's high-speed rail and technology offerVietnam's arms diversification beyond RussiaTô Lâm's consolidation of power and the "Blazing Furnace" anti-corruption campaignVietnam's reaction to the Trump-Xi summitSubscribe for weekly Indo-Pacific analysis from a former US military officer and a former US diplomat who've spent their careers in the region.Follow Dr. Nguyễn Khắc Giang on LinkedIn or on X, @khacgiangFollow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or FacebookFollow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLightFollow Jim Carouso on LinkedInSponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific
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  Why Should We Care if a U.S.-Japan-Philippines Trilateral can Deter China? | with Lisa Curtis and Ryan Claffey 05.06.2026 51min

  Japan sits just 68 miles from Taiwan, while the Philippines is even closer at 61. As one guest puts it, “You can’t invade Taiwan if you don’t control the northern Philippines.” That geography is exactly why three countries - the U.S., Japan, and the Philippines - are quietly building what may become the backbone of deterrence in the Western Pacific.In this episode, co-hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with Lisa Curtis, Director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), and research assistant Ryan Claffey to discuss their report: “U.S.-Japan-Philippines Trilateral Cooperation: The Bedrock of a New U.S. Indo-Pacific Deterrence Strategy.”The conversation covers:Why the First Island Chain, from Japan through Taiwan to the Philippines, is the most strategically consequential geography in the world todayHow a bankrupt Subic Bay shipyard nearly fell into Chinese hands and is now being transformed into a military-commercial hub central to U.S. forward postureThe expansion of the U.S.-Philippine Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) sites in northern Luzon and what permanent missile deployments in Batanes would mean for deterrence across the Luzon StraitWhether Trump’s transactional approach to Beijing and the prospect of a trade-focused summit could undermine allied solidarityPhilippine political risks, including the Sara Duterte faction and what a change in Manila’s leadership could mean for the allianceJapan’s growing security role under Prime Minister Takaichi, from record defense spending to missile deployments across the Southwest IslandsThe race for critical minerals, the Luzon Economic Corridor, and how economic resilience underpins the security architectureWhy this trilateral could become the foundation for a broader networked deterrence strategy across the Indo-PacificWhether you’re following the South China Sea, Taiwan, U.S.-China competition, Japan’s security pivot, or the future of Indo-Pacific alliances, this episode breaks down why the U.S.-Japan-Philippines triangle may become one of the region’s most important strategic partnerships.👉 Follow Lisa Curtis on on LinkedIn or X, @LisaCurtisDC; follow Ryan Claffey on LinkedIn or X, @RyanHClaffey 👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific
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  Why Should We Care if Energy Dependence Undermines Southeast Asia’s Quest for Agency? | with Gita Wirjawan 29.05.2026 51min

  Indonesia’s former trade minister Gita Wirjawan - Stanford visiting scholar and host of the Endgame podcast - joins Ray Powell and Jim Carouso to unpack what the closure of the Strait of Hormuz means for Southeast Asia and why it is more than just an oil shock.With a significant share of the region’s energy flowing through this narrow chokepoint, the disruption is exposing how vulnerable Southeast Asia really is. Most countries hold only weeks to a couple of months of fuel reserves, and governments like Indonesia - already facing higher-than-expected oil prices - are being forced into difficult tradeoffs between subsidies, social programs, and fiscal stability.Gita explains why countries like the Philippines, Thailand, and Indonesia are particularly exposed, and why switching energy suppliers is far more complicated than it sounds. He also walks through how rising fuel costs ripple quickly into everyday life, especially in archipelagic economies where higher transport costs can drive up food prices and strain household budgets.The conversation goes beyond the immediate crisis to explore deeper structural challenges, including limited fiscal space, reliance on foreign investment, weak regulatory environments, and gaps in technical capacity. Gita argues that these factors make it harder for Southeast Asia to attract the capital needed to strengthen its energy security and long-term resilience.Looking ahead, the discussion turns to whether this crisis could become a turning point. While renewable energy is becoming cheaper and more viable, scaling it across the region will require massive investment and stronger governance. The episode closes by asking whether Southeast Asia can use this moment to assert greater agency, or whether it will remain dependent on forces beyond its control.👉 Follow Gita Wirjawan on YouTube or on X, @GWirjawan👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific
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  Why Should We Care if North Korea's "Little Rocket Man" is Firing Off Missiles Again? | with Ankit Panda 22.05.2026 51min

  While U.S. attention has been consumed by wars in the Middle East and Europe, North Korea’s Kim Jong Un is expanding his nuclear arsenal, testing missiles from land and sea, and locking in a new strategic partnership with Russia. In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with Ankit Panda - Stanton Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, co‑host of the Asia Geopolitics podcast at The Diplomat, and one of the world’s leading experts on North Korea’s nuclear and missile forces - to unpack what’s really going on in Pyongyang and why it matters far beyond the Korean Peninsula.Ankit explains why North Korea is now America’s “third nuclear adversary,” with intercontinental ballistic missiles that can reach the U.S. homeland and the lowest threshold for nuclear use of any nuclear‑armed state on Earth. He traces how Kim’s testing program shifted from cautious development to high‑tempo nuclear war exercises, including tactical nuclear weapons aimed squarely at U.S. and South Korean forces in the region.The conversation digs into the deepening Russia-North Korea military partnership, the implications of the new Choe Hyon‑class destroyer and submarine programs, and the stability‑instability paradox that could make conventional clashes more likely as Pyongyang’s deterrent matures. Ankit also lays out his argument for a U.S. policy shift from denuclearization to “stable coexistence,” explains why Washington already treats Kim as a nuclear peer in practice, and warns of the growing risk that South Korea could break from the Non‑Proliferation Treaty and pursue its own bomb.If you care about U.S. extended deterrence, the future of the Indo‑Pacific security order, North Korea-Russia cooperation, the South Korea nuclear debate, or the rising risk of nuclear crisis in Northeast Asia, this is a conversation you need to hear!👉 Follow Ankit Panda on LinkedIn or on X, @nktpnd👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific
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  Why Should We Care About the U.S.-Philippine Alliance? with AMB MaryKay Carlson 20.05.2026 50min

  In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with retired U.S. Ambassador to the Philippines MaryKay Carlson, who led America’s embassy in Manila from July 2022 to January 2026, one of the most consequential periods in the modern history of the U.S.-Philippine alliance.Ambassador Carlson takes us inside the alliance at a moment of dramatic transformation: the 75th anniversary of the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty, the 80th anniversary of diplomatic relations, the 10th anniversary of the 2016 Arbitral Award on the South China Sea, and the Philippines’ year as ASEAN Chair under President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr.. She walks us through the most dangerous flashpoints in the West Philippine Sea: the June 2024 ramming at Second Thomas Shoal (Ayungin) that cost a Filipino sailor his thumb, and the August 2025 Scarborough Shoal incident in which a Chinese Coast Guard cutter collided with its own PLA Navy destroyer while chasing a Philippine vessel.We dig into the strategic geography that makes the Philippines irreplaceable to America’s Indo-Pacific strategy; the largest Balikatan exercise in history; the expansion of EDCA sites; the new $2.5 billion Philippine Enhanced Resilience Act; the new Luzon Economic Corridor (with Japan); the U.S.-Philippines 123 civil nuclear agreement; and the 19% Trump tariff Carlson openly wishes had been much lower. She offers a candid read on China’s Ambassador Huang Xilian’s successor, Jing Quan, the limits of the ASEAN Code of Conduct, and what actually deters Beijing’s gray-zone aggression in the South China Sea.If you follow U.S.-China competition, the U.S.-Philippines alliance, ASEAN, Philippine politics, the Marcos administration, Indo-Pacific strategy, the South China Sea, or U.S. foreign policy under the second Trump administration, this is essential listening from someone who lived it up close.👉 Follow AMB Carlson on X, @MaryKayCarlson👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific
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  Why Should We Care About How to Prevent a War over Taiwan? | with Dr. Eyck Freymann 15.05.2026 51min

  What if China could take Taiwan without firing a single missile? In this episode, Dr. Eyck Freymann explains how Beijing's primary strategy isn't a cross-strait invasion - it's a gray-zone "quarantine" that could leave Taipei and Washington with no good options.Dr. Freymann, a Hoover Institution Fellow and author of Defending Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War with China, joins hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso to break down why Taiwan is the central strategic question of our era, and why the United States still doesn't have a plan to deter Xi Jinping’s ambitions to take the island.Freymann argues that Taiwan’s importance rests on three pillars: its production of 90% of the world’s advanced semiconductors powering AI, its position anchoring the First Island Chain that constrains China’s navy, and its role in preserving a free and open Indo-Pacific economic order.In this episode, we talk to Eyck about:•⁠ ⁠The quarantine scenario: why Beijing might simply declare that all ships and aircraft entering Taiwan must clear Chinese customs first.•⁠ ⁠Why TSMC’s Arizona and Japan fabs are generations behind and can’t replace what’s in Taiwan.•⁠ ⁠Xi Jinping’s “national rejuvenation” project and why Taiwan is the keystone in the arch.•⁠ ⁠Structured ambiguity: Freymann’s original concept for countering China’s gray-zone salami slicing.•⁠ ⁠Avalanche decoupling: a realistic plan to reduce dangerous economic dependencies on China before a crisis hits.If you care about US-China competition, AI, semiconductors, or whether war can still be prevented - this is essential listening.👉 Follow Dr. Eyck Freymann on LinkedIn or X, @eyckfreymann👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific
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  Why Should We Care About the Trump–Xi Summit? | with Michael Sobolik 12.05.2026 54min

  This week President Donald Trump heads to Beijing for a high-stakes summit with Xi Jinping - the first U.S. presidential visit to China in nearly a decade. But this isn't 2017 all over again. China is stronger, America's alliances are under strain, the war in Iran has scrambled the chessboard, and the stakes run straight through Taiwan, AI chips, rare earths and critical minerals, and the supply chains the world depends on.Hosts Ray Powell and Jim Caruso are joined by Michael Sobolik, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute and author of Countering China's Great Game: A Strategy for American Dominance.Michael unpacks why Trump may be arriving in Beijing with less leverage than he wanted, why the Iran war isn't the "four-dimensional chess" anti-China strategy some Washington commentators imagine, and what Xi Jinping's "Christmas wish list" could look like - from a public U.S. statement against Taiwanese independence to economic offers that sound like wins but could deepen American dependence on China and spook America’s Indo-Pacific allies.He also warns about the AI race hiding in plain sight: selling advanced chips to China, he argues, can mean "equipping your adversary with a weapon they don't know how to make themselves yet." As for Chinese electric vehicles manufactured on American soil, he calls that "TikTok on wheels" - a potential extinction-level event for U.S. and Japanese automakers and a national security nightmare.Michael flags one summit topic getting too much attention: setting AI rules, which he thinks is likely to yield very little substantial fruit. He also emphasizes another getting too little: political prisoners. Human rights, he argues, isn't just a moral add-on, it's strategic pressure on a Leninist regime that fears its own people, and one of the most overlooked sources of American leverage heading into Beijing.👉 Follow Michael Sobolik on LinkedIn or X, @michaelsobolik👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific
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  Why Should We Care if Beijing’s Propaganda is Attacking Journalists who Report Critically on China? | with Regine Cabato 09.05.2026 54min

  What happens when you publish an investigation that an authoritarian superpower doesn't want the world to see? Journalist Regine Cabato found out.A contributor at the Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism (PCIJ) and former Washington Post correspondent in Manila, Regine published an explainer exposing how pro-China disinformation networks have taken root in Filipino social media feeds. The Chinese Embassy in Manila responded by attacking PCIJ online and putting her face on its social media posts - unleashing a torrent of harassment, sexist abuse, and smears labeling her a "CIA plant" and a tool of U.S. interests.In this episode, Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with Regine to unpack what happened and why it matters far beyond the Philippines. She walks us through how she identified the red flags of pro-Beijing propaganda, why participation in China-sponsored journalist programs isn't automatically disqualifying but the rhetoric that follows often is, and how influence operations exploit the overlap between pro-Duterte networks and pro-China narratives without ever being overtly traceable to the Chinese state.Regine also reveals the personal toll: the midnight moment her phone lit up with the embassy's post, watching the hate campaign build in real time, and why she says the attacks are actually a sign her reporting is landing. She reflects on the solidarity she received from the Committee to Protect Journalists, Reporters Without Borders and Philippine press organizations - and why the Philippines remains one of the last places in the region where journalists can still report critically on China.The conversation ranges across transnational repression, U.S. credibility under the Trump administration, the weaponization of foreign-funding smears, and the broader chilling effect on Filipino newsrooms. Regine closes with a message for young reporters weighing whether to take on a powerful government: it's not for everyone, but any project that defends democratic discussion is worth it.If you care about press freedom, Chinese political warfare, the South China Sea, or the future of democracy in the Indo-Pacific, this is an essential listen.👉 Follow Regine Cabato on LinkedIn or X, @RegineCabato👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific
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  Why Should We Care About Nepal? | Gen Z Revolution, India-China Rivalry & the Iran War’s Impact on South Asia | with BGA's Sujeev Shakya 01.05.2026 49min

  Nepal just experienced one of Asia’s most dramatic recent political upheavals. A former rapper and Kathmandu mayor, Balen Shah, swept to power in a landslide election, winning 182 of 275 parliamentary seats and wiping out every established political party. With half of Nepal’s 30 million people under 25, this “Gen Z Revolution” could signal a trend for young democracies worldwide.In this episode, Sujeev Shakya - Chair of the Nepal Economic Forum and senior advisor for Nepal and Bhutan at BowerGroupAsia - explains what happened, why it matters, and what comes next for this small Himalayan country sandwiched between India and China.We explore:•⁠ ⁠How a youth-led anti-corruption movement toppled the government and formed an interim administration on Discord in just five days•⁠ ⁠Why Nepal’s new PM is focused on public service delivery rather than grand promises, and whether he can actually end decades of entrenched corruption•⁠ ⁠Nepal’s remarkable economic transformation: GDP growth from $7B to $44B in 20 years, fueled by $15B in annual remittances and a booming IT export sector•⁠ ⁠How Nepal navigates its position between India and China - aiming to be an economic “bridge” rather than a geopolitical buffer•⁠ ⁠The impact of the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz closure on Nepal’s fuel supply and its two million workers in the Gulf•⁠ ⁠Why thousands of Nepali soldiers are fighting for Russia in Ukraine - and the new government’s challenge of bringing them home•⁠ ⁠Investment opportunities in hydropower, agriculture, technology, tourism, and infrastructureWhether you follow South Asian politics, India-China competition, or youth-led political movements, Nepal’s story offers insights into how small states survive and thrive between great powers.👉 Follow Sujeev Shakya on LinkedIn or X, @sujeevshakya👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific
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  Why Should We Care About the World’s Blocked Oil Artery? | with Sal Mercogliano 29.04.2026 55min

  Eighty to ninety percent of global commerce moves by sea - including 75% of the world’s oil and almost all liquefied natural gas (LNG). So when the Strait of Hormuz shuts down, the shockwaves reach every corner of the Indo-Pacific and beyond.In this episode, Ray Powell and Jim Carouso welcome back maritime historian Dr. Sal Mercogliano - Campbell University professor, former merchant mariner, and host of the popular YouTube channel What's Going on with Shipping? - to unpack the two-month-old crisis that has bottled up 800 ships inside the Persian Gulf and pushed the U.S. Navy to seize tankers thousands of miles away in the Indian Ocean.Sal lays out what he calls a “tale of two blockades”: Iran rerouting traffic into its own territorial waters, shaking down shipping companies for multimillion-dollar transit payments on an international waterway and seizing Mediterranean Shipping Company vessels, while the United States mounts a blockade from the Northern Arabian Sea, firing inert shells at the Iranian container ship Touska and boarding stateless tankers in the Indian Ocean under U.S. Department of Justice warrants.We dig into the Venezuela vessel seizure precedent, the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), the return of mine warfare, and why ship owners aren’t budging even with insurance on offer. Sal explains how ship-to-ship transfers off East Johor, Malaysia launder sanctioned Iranian crude, and why that anchorage could be the next target of U.S. enforcement.He also walks through the pressure building inside Iran: storage tanks filling, old supertankers towed out of retirement at Kharg Island, and the looming prospect of permanently damaging Iran’s aging low-pressure oil wells. We close on the ripple effects reaching Pakistan, India, Africa, and Southeast Asia - refineries shutting down, fertilizer supplies choked, and bunker fuel prices doubling - plus the quiet winner: Russia.Join us for a masterclass on why a regional war has become a global economic crisis and what the breakdown of freedom of the seas means for the Indo-Pacific.👉 Follow Sal on YouTube and X, @mercoglianos👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific
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  Why Should We Care About Kim Jong Un’s Dangerous Liaisons with Putin and Xi? | with Oriana Skylar Mastro 24.04.2026 53min

  North Korean troops are fighting and dying in Ukraine, and the survivors are returning home to teach their comrades what they've learned. In return, Moscow is transferring military technology to Pyongyang. Beijing, worried about losing its grip, is competing for influence by easing up on decades of pressure that kept the Hermit Kingdom in check. And Washington? It's pulling forces out of the Indo-Pacific and sending them to other theaters.In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with Stanford's Dr. Oriana Skylar Mastro, Center Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute and leading expert on Chinese military strategy, to unpack her new Foreign Affairs article, "Kim's Dangerous Liaisons: Russia, China, and the Growing North Korea Threat."Oriana makes the case that the Korean Peninsula is more dangerous today than it has been in years. North Korea is more capable and emboldened and less restrained by its two great-power patrons, who are playing against each other for influence. A conflict on the peninsula today would inevitably pull in Russia and China, nuclear powers with combined military and industrial weight that rivals the United States.In this conversation:Why North Korea's Ukraine experience is reshaping its military doctrineWhat a "limited attack" on South Korea could look like, and how it could spiralWhy China's restraining role over Pyongyang is breaking downHow U.S. force movements to Iran are read in Beijing, Moscow, and SeoulThe 1950 Dean Acheson parallel and what Washington risks repeatingWhy South Korea could one day hedge toward China if U.S. guarantees weakenWhat real deterrence in Northeast Asia would actually requireA sharp, accessible podcast on great-power competition, alliance politics, Korean Peninsula security, U.S.-South Korea relations, and the growing China-Russia-North Korea axis.👉 Follow Oriana Skylar Mastro on LinkedIn or X, @osmastro, or check out her new Indo-Pacific Policy Lab at Stanford University👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific
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  Why Should We Care if China is Poisoning the Water Around a Philippine Outpost in the South China Sea? | with Rear Admiral Roy Vincent Trinidad 17.04.2026 46min

  Philippine marines living aboard a rusting World War II ship grounded at Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea have been eating fish from waters laced with cyanide, and their spokesman says an October 2025 incident may have gone further, with Chinese “fishermen” potentially attempting to introduce the toxin directly into the ship’s desalination system. In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and James Carouso sit down with Rear Admiral Roy Vincent Trinidad, the Philippine Navy’s spokesperson for the West Philippine Sea, to examine one of the most alarming accusations yet in the South China Sea dispute between the Philippines and China.Trinidad explains how the Armed Forces of the Philippines seized bottles from Chinese fishermen on four separate occasions between February 2025 and March 2026, and how recently concluded forensic testing has confirmed that the contents had contained cyanide. Was it a matter of destructive fishing techniques or something more sinister?He also discusses the July 2024 “provisional arrangement” on resupply missions to BRP Sierra Madre and why its ambiguity may be both a stabilizing asset and a long-term vulnerability for Philippine maritime security. He also walks through China’s massive military buildup at Second Thomas Shoal after the embarrassing Chinese ship-on-ship collision at Scarborough Shoal, and how Manila’s transparency strategy helped force a partial de-escalation.The conversation then turns to information warfare. Trinidad explains why he pointedly refers not to “China” but to the “Chinese Communist Party”, in order to distinguish between the people of the Middle Kingdom and its government in Beijing. He also shares why being personally targeted by the Chinese Embassy in Manila - and being recently caricatured in a state-run Global Times political cartoon - is, in his view, a badge of honor for standing up to Beijing’s narrative campaigns. Admiral Trinidad then talks about espionage, revealing how Chinese intelligence handlers recruited young Filipino defense workers via social media to gather information specifically about troops at Second Thomas Shoal and the resupply missions, and why he is urging Congress to replace the Philippines’ 1941-era anti-espionage law and pass new legislation on foreign malign influence.Trinidad closes with a message to Chinese officials he says he knows will be listening: their reaction to Philippine transparency shows exactly where their vulnerabilities lie. He finally announces that he is now days away from retirement from his active duty service in the Philippine Navy - but intends to keep speaking out about the West Philippine Sea.👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific
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  Why Should We Care if China is Building its Biggest Island Yet in the South China Sea? | with Greg Poling 10.04.2026 50min

  At the start of 2025, Antelope Reef was little more than a sandbar in the Paracel Islands. Months later, it's on track to become China's largest artificial island in the South China Sea. In this episode, we sit down with Greg Poling, director of the Southeast Asia Program and the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) at CSIS and author of On Dangerous Ground: America's Century in the South China Sea, to unpack what China is building, why it's building it now, and what it means for the region – and especially Vietnam.Greg walks us through the latest satellite imagery, explains why the scale and speed of construction caught even seasoned analysts off guard, and lays out the military implications of a potential new airstrip in the western Paracels – the first in an area where Vietnamese fishermen have operated for generations.We explore why both China and Vietnam claim the Paracel Islands, how Vietnam’s own massive island-building campaign in the Spratly Islands complicates the narrative, and why Hanoi’s response to Antelope Reef has been surprisingly restrained. The conversation turns to the broader geopolitical landscape: Vietnam’s strategic rebalancing between Washington and Beijing, the Philippines’ recalibration during its ASEAN chairmanship, and whether a South China Sea Code of Conduct can ever be more than symbolic.With the 10th anniversary of the landmark 2016 Hague arbitral ruling approaching in July, we assess whether it has been a net positive or negative for the Philippines and the rules-based order. We also discuss middle-power alignment, the expanding Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership, and what countries like the United States, Japan, and Australia should and shouldn’t do in response.Whether you follow South China Sea tensions closely or are just trying to understand why a reef you’ve never heard of will soon be ready to receive combat aircraft and navy destroyers, this episode connects the dots between island-building, international law, great power competition and the future of the Indo-Pacific.👉 Follow Greg Poling on LinkedIn👉 Follow the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative on X (@AsiaMTI) and Facebook👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific
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  Why Should We Care About America’s Extraordinary Rescue Mission in Iran? | with Ioannis Koskinas and Joe Felter 08.04.2026 1h 1min

  The U.S. military just pulled off one of the most dramatic combat search and rescue missions in history, sending forces deep into Iran to recover the crew of a downed F‑15E Strike Eagle fighter. Aircraft were lost, firefights erupted, and both airmen came home alive. The last time America attempted something this ambitious inside Iran was Operation Eagle Claw in 1980 - and that ended in disaster.In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with two retired special operations colonels: Ioannis Koskinas (Air Force Special Operations, CEO of The Hoplite Group, former senior advisor to Generals McChrystal and Schwartz) and Joe Felter (Army Special Forces, Director of Stanford’s Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense). As Felter puts it: no other country could have pulled this off, and no other country would have tried.The conversation starts with the rescue: how it was planned in under 48 hours, how and why aircraft were lost at a forward staging site deep in Iran, and what separates this outcome from the 1980 failure. It then pivots to the broader war: where the conflict with Iran is headed, the risk of Gulf state escalation, and why both guests, drawing on painful experience from Afghanistan’s collapse, warn against assuming tactical brilliance equals strategic victory. The episode closes with the Indo‑Pacific: what allies are thinking as American attention and resources once again pour into the Middle East, and whether the U.S. can fight in the Gulf without undermining its ability to deter China.👉 Follow Ioannis Koskinas and The Hoplite Group on LinkedIn👉 Follow Joe Felter and the Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation on LinkedIn👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific