Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Ep. 360: Dirk Willer on Trading Global Macro Regimes, the End of QE, and Navigating Equity Bubbles 29.05.2026 39mnt

Dr. Dirk Willer is a Managing Director and Global Head of Macro and Asset Allocation at Citi Research in New York. Prior to this role, Dirk headed global Emerging Market Strategy, where he and his teams were consistently ranked in the top three in the institutional investor surveys. Previously, Dirk worked at Omega Advisors and RHG Capital as a global macro strategist and portfolio manager, and at Swiss Bank as a fixed income strategist for Russia and Eastern Europe. Dirk holds a PhD and MSc in Economics from the London School of Economics. Dirk is also the author of an influential book on how to trade emerging market fixed income, published by Wiley in 2020, and of a book on global macro trading, released in 2026. In this podcast, we discuss: Unlearning the QE Reflex Trading "Close to the Fire" The Nearest Neighbour Regime Framework PMIs vs. "Noisy" Indicators Yield Curve Inversions and Fed Lags The "GMO" Bubble Methodology Credit as the Equity Canary The Four-Indicator Dollar Model Fading Geopolitical Shocks The Role of Human Judgment in AI

Ep. 359: Dylan Smith on the Hormuz Supply Shock, US Macro Regimes, and Private Market Evolution 22.05.2026 41mnt

Dylan is the founder of arcMacro, where he analyses macro and private markets. His previous roles include serving as an economist at Goldman Sachs and Rosenberg Research, and later as a private market consultant at McKinsey. In this podcast, we discuss: The Hormuz Supply Shock Stagflation as the New Base Case AI Capex vs. Energy Headwinds A Hawkish Fed Outlook Canada's Productivity Pivot The USMCA Trade Cloud Private Market Maturation Normalising Credit Defaults AI's Private Market Future

Ep. 358: Shawn Edwards on Engineering Trust in AI, The Bloomberg Way, and the Terminal's Future 15.05.2026 49mnt

Shawn Edwards is Bloomberg's Chief Technology Officer. Based in New York, he oversees the development of Bloomberg's global technology strategy. In 2017, Shawn was named in the top ten of the Institutional Investor Tech 40 – an annual ranking of financial industry technology leaders. Prior to joining Bloomberg in 2003, Shawn worked for Bear Stearns & Co., where he was a managing director in the company's fixed income trading group. He has also held positions at Mentor Graphics and IBM. In this podcast, we discuss: Engineering Trust through "Entailment" Automating "The Bloomberg Way" ASKB: Reimagining the Terminal Workflow-Specific AI Expansion Actionable Alternative Data Empowering Non-Programmers Accelerating Data Onboarding Competition vs. Domain Knowledge A Cautious View on AGI

Ep. 357: Andrew Perry on the Five Pillars of Global Macro, Liquidity, and Australia's Macro Risks 08.05.2026 42mnt

Andrew Perry is the creator of Macro Pillars, a macro research product servicing a bespoke selection of global banks, hedge funds, and sophisticated investors. He has over 35+ years of experience in markets, including as a Portfolio Manager at Tudor Investment Corporation under Paul Tudor Jones, and later as a Managing Director and Portfolio Manager at Nomura. In this podcast, we discuss: The Five Pillars of Global Macro The Move Index: The Ultimate Indicator Non-Traditional Liquidity and Market Plumbing Australia's "Lucky Country" Crisis From Supply Shock to Demand Shock The Significance of "Critical Dates" Risk Management and Emotional Resilience US Equity Outperformance and Policy Makers

Ep. 356: Tina Fordham on the Geopolitics Super Cycle, Iran's Oil Shock, and Trump's Global Impact 01.05.2026 45mnt

Tina Fordham is a Geostrategist, Author and Advisor to board and C-Suite leaders on a mission to transform how leaders navigate the changing global environment. Her signature theses on the Geopolitics Supercycle, PQ (Political Quotient) and Vox Populi Risk have entered the popular lexicon, while the tools developed by Fordham Global Foresight have demonstrated how geopolitics can be integrated into business strategy. Fordham was Wall Street's original Chief Global Political Analyst, spending 17 years at Citigroup. She created Eurasia Group's financial markets research business; was appointed to the United Nations' first HighLevel Panel on Women's Economic Empowerment; and has served as a Senior Advisor to the U.K. Prime Minister and 2-and 3-star Generals. Tina is a member of the International Advisory Boards of Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs, her alma mater, and Cambridge University's Centre for Geopolitics. She hosts "The Navigator", produced in collaboration with the London Stock Exchange, and is a frequent guest on CNN, CNBC and Bloomberg. Her forthcoming book, Mad World: A Geostrategy Survival Guide for Business Leaders, will be published in July 2026 by Whitefox. In this podcast, we discuss: The Geopolitics Super Cycle The 1973-Scale Oil Shock Europe's "Barely Controlled Panic" The 2026 Greenland Maneuver Venezuela and the Iran "Jujitsu" Move China's "Silent" Advantage The Rise of Middle Powers Raising Your "PQ" (Political Quotient) You can follow Tina's work on X, LinkedIn, and the Fordham Global Foresight website. You can also contact Tina here,

Ep. 355: Phil Suttle on Oil Market Shocks, Inflationary AI, and the Fed's Hawkish Pivot 24.04.2026 43mnt

Phil is the founder of Suttle Economics – a leading research consultancy. Before that, he held senior roles at Tudor, the Institute of International Finance (IIF), JP Morgan, Barclays, the New York Fed and World Bank. He was educated at Oxford University and lives in the US. In the podcast, we talk about: The Oil Price Shock and "Negative Supply Curve" Impact US Economic Stagnation and Population Seismic Shift AI as a Short-Term Inflationary Impulse The Fed's Potential Hawkish Pivot European and Japanese Central Bank Outlooks China's Resilience and the "Thucydides Trap" Market Rotations and the "Safe Asset" Shift US Midterms and Trade Tensions

Ep. 354: Nader Itayim on Iran's Hormuz Stranglehold, GCC Tensions, and the Oil Market's Recovery 17.04.2026 47mnt

Nader is Argus' Middle East editor, based in Dubai. Argus is a leading independent provider of global energy and commodity market intelligence. Nader has more than 15 years of experience covering oil and gas in the region, and today heads up the company's Middle East and OPEC coverage. Prior to moving to Argus in 2015, Nader spent five years with the Middle East Economic Survey (MEES) weekly in Cyprus. In this podcast, we discuss: Fragmented GCC Stances Iran's Hormuz "Stranglehold" The "Zero Enrichment" Stalemate The Hormuz Transit Toll US Naval Blockade Tactics Downstream Infrastructure Damage Returning Shut-in Production Bypassing the Strait

Ep. 353: Rory Johnston on the Hormuz Ceasefire, Oil Supply Losses, and Navigating Energy Security 10.04.2026 49mnt

Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank. In this podcast, we discuss: The Billion-Barrel Supply Gap Physical Insurance and Pipelines The "Toll Booth" Strait Sanctions as a Safety Valve Wealth vs. Shortages China's Strategic Resilience The "Unilateral Taco" Scenario Long-Term Energy Optionality

Ep. 352: Richard Schimel on Platform Evolution, Collaborative Culture, and Navigating Market Risks 06.04.2026 37mnt

Richard Schimel is the Co-Founder and Co-CIO of Cinctive Capital Management – a leading multi-strategy alternative asset manager. Rich has over 30 years of experience in the investment management industry.  Prior to Cinctive, Rich was Head of Aptigon Capital, a division of Citadel, where he served on the firm's Portfolio Committee. Before that, Rich founded and served as the CIO of Sterling Ridge Capital. Earlier in his career, Rich co-founded Diamondback Capital, where he co-managed the firm as well as portions of the firm's overall investment strategy. Before Diamondback, Rich began his buy-side career at SAC Capital, where he was a portfolio manager. In this podcast, we will discuss: The "Sweet Spot" for Alpha Silos vs. Collaborative Culture Protecting the Left Tail AI Beyond Tech: The Power Theme The Pendulum Swing to Hedge Funds Middle East: The New Financial Hub The "Pattern Recognition" of Talent Fed and Sector Outlook

Ep. 351: Tyler Goodspeed on Recession Myths, the Reality of Economic Shocks, and Policy Hubris 27.03.2026 43mnt

Dr. Tyler Goodspeed chaired the White House Council of Economic Advisers from 202-21. During his tenure on the council, he also chaired the Economic Policy Committee at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). From 2021 through 2023, Tyler was a Director and Chief Economist at Greenmantle, a New York and London-based macroeconomic and geopolitical consulting firm. The author of four books on economic history, Tyler holds a PhD in economics from Cambridge University and a PhD in history from Harvard University, He is currently a Senior Fellow at the Adam Smith Institute in London and a member of the Geoeconomic Council of Advisers at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.  All views are his own and not any of the organisations he is affiliated with. In this podcast, we discuss: The "Boom-Bust" Myth Recessions as "Apophonies" Expansions Do Not Die of Old Age Policy Hubris The 1785 Structural Break Supply Shocks as Choke Points Misnaming the 2001 Recession The 2008 Energy and Mortgage Intersection Impairment of Creative Destruction Fidelity to Long-Run Trends

Ep. 350: Tomasz Nadrowski on China's Mineral War, Western Supply Chain Gaps, and Global Resilience 20.03.2026 49mnt

Tomasz Nadrowski is a portfolio manager at the Amvest Terraden Critical Minerals Fund. He was a former Director at the World Economic Forum and Vice President of Business Development at AngloGold Ashanti, then the world's largest gold producer. Tomasz has spent over fifteen years managing commodity and mining equity portfolios for hedge funds and family offices across the U.S., Europe, and Asia. He is fluent in seven languages and a regular contributor to Oxford Analytica. He combines deep industry knowledge with a strategic understanding of how resources, markets, and power intersect in today's shifting geopolitical landscape. He is also the host of the podcast Tyranny Today. In this podcast, we discuss: Geopolitics vs. the Commodity Cycle China's VAT Rebate and Value-Added Strategy Critical Choke Points: Rare Earths, Graphite, and Gallium Regulatory Roadblocks and the Stigma of "Dirty" Mining The Abdication of Western Capital Markets Human Capital Gaps and the "Octogenarian Engineer" Problem Geoeconomic Pricing: Disincentivising New Capacity From "Just-in-Time" to "Just-in-Case" Production Japan's "House of Brick" Model for Resilience The Mineral War and the "Soul" of AI A Shift Toward Oligopolistic Competition

Ep. 349: Nader Itayim on Iran's Regional War, the Hormuz Choke Point, and Global Energy Disruption 13.03.2026 1j 2mnt

Nader is Argus' Middle East editor, based in Dubai. Argus is a leading independent provider of global energy and commodity market intelligence. Nader has more than 15 years of experience covering oil and gas in the region, and today heads up the company's Middle East and OPEC coverage. Prior to moving to Argus in 2015, Nader spent five years with the Middle East Economic Survey (MEES) weekly in Cyprus. In this podcast, we discuss: Inevitable Escalation with Iran Iran's Decentralised Resilience The Rise of Mojtaba Regional Retaliation Strategy The Hormuz Choke Point Modern Tanker War Risks 8 Million Barrels Offline Limits of the Global SPR Sentiment-Driven Volatility Houthi Autonomy and the Red Sea

Ep. 348: Alex Campbell on Commodity Diversification, AI strategies, and the Moneyball Approach 06.03.2026 57mnt

Alex has 20 years of experience at the intersection of finance and data. He has been a global macro investor at firms like Bridgewater Associates and a proprietary volatility trader at Lehman Brothers. Prior to his career as a data-driven speculator, Alex received an MBA from Stanford Business School, an MPhil in Economics (Game Theory) from the University of Oxford, and a BA (Hons) in Economics from McGill University. In this podcast, we discuss: Fantasy Baseball to Prop Trading Diversification as the "Free Lunch" Gold vs. The Chinese Credit Bubble Silver as the "Money that Generates Electricity" The "Long API, Short Slides" Thesis China's Sceptical Data Copper vs. Iron Divergence The Future of Systematic Investing

Ep. 347: Raphaël Gallardo on Austrian Economics, Wobbling AI Bubbles, and Trump Risk Parity 27.02.2026 46mnt

Raphaël Gallardo is Chief Economist within the Cross-Asset team at Carmignac. Carmignac is a leading European investment management boutique established in 1989, with over EUR 40 bn in assets under management. Raphaël joined them in 2018. He started his career in 1997 at BNP Paribas, where he spent ten years as a Quantitative Analyst within the Risk Department, a Country-risk Economist, a Financial Engineer specialising in interest rate risk, and ultimately a cross-asset strategist. In 2007, he joined Axa IM as Head of Macroeconomic Research and moved to Rothschild & Cie Gestion in 2012 to occupy the same position. From 2013 to 2018, he was Cross-Asset Strategist at Ostrum Asset Management. Raphaël holds an Engineering Degree from École Nationale Supérieure des Mines de Paris. In this podcast, we discuss: Austrian Economics Framework Three "Wobbling" Bubbles The "Sad" AI Bubble Trump Risk Parity Portfolio Spain's "Virtuous Circle" France's Fiscal Existential Risk Japan's Vicious Circle China's Dual Economy Death of the Risk-Free Asset 2026–2027 Outlook

Ep. 346: Alex Gurevich on US Return to Zero Rates, AI Productivity, and Managing Portfolio Paralysis 20.02.2026 42mnt

Alex Gurevich is the founder of HonTe Investments. After earning a PhD in mathematics from the University of Chicago, he leveraged his passion for strategic gaming into a lucrative Wall Street career. He has been hailed by The Wall Street Journal as the star trader of J.P. Morgan, where he served as Managing Director in charge of global macro trading and, in 2020, was leading HonTe's macro strategy when he ranked second by net return according to BarclayHedge. Alex is the bestselling author of The Next Perfect Trade and The Trades of March 2020. In this podcast, we discuss: The 10-Year "Test of Time" Retrospective The "Swim with the Tide" Framework Rethinking "Tight Stops" in Risk Management Strategies to Overcome Portfolio Paralysis Betting on the "Necessary" vs. "Sufficient" Japan's Search for the "Perfect Trade" The Case for the Fed Returning to 0% AI-Driven Technological Displacement Energy as the "Bottleneck" for AI Growth Evolving Views on Option Usage

Ep. 345: Marc Elovitz on Private Market Evolution, Crypto's Regulatory Shift, and AI Explainability 13.02.2026 33mnt

Marc Elovitz is Global Head of Investment Management Regulatory at McDermott Will & Schulte – a leading global law firm. Marc advises private fund managers on running their businesses consistent with all relevant laws, regulations and legal requirements. Marc's cutting-edge work also covers the latest trends of interest to private funds, including blockchain technology and digital assets. He advises on the legal and regulatory considerations involving virtual and digital currency business initiatives and the blockchain technology behind them. In this podcast, we discuss: From Litigation to Regulation The Private Market Boom "Project Crypto" and Regulatory Harmonisation Beyond Digital Gold The Yield Obstacle in Stablecoins Future-Proofing Digital Assets The Trust Factor in Private Equity Solving the AI Explainability Crisis The Delaware Governance Battle Perspective through Fiction

Ep. 344: Sean McGould on Multi-Strategy Investing, Trump 2.0, and the AI 'Digital Tool' Era 06.02.2026 32mnt

Sean McGould – the founder/CEO of the Lighthouse Group – an approximately $17 billion investment management firm. Prior to Lighthouse, Sean was the Director of the Outside Trader Investment Program for Trout Trading Management Company. Before joining Trout, he worked for Price Waterhouse in auditing and corporate finance. In this podcast we discuss: The Multi-Strategy Investment Approach The Selective "War for Talent" Adapting to Trump 2.0 Volatility Targeting Real Returns vs Gold AI: A Digital Tool, Not a Total Bubble Redefining Value in the Digital Age Japan's Shareholder Value Pivot Centralised Planning Risks in China Patience in Tight Credit Markets The 2026 Macro Outlook You can get more information on Sean's firm here The commentary contained in the above article/podcast does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.

Ep. 343: Srividya Jandhyala on Changing Corporate Behaviour to Geopolitical Risks, and 'The Great Disruption' 30.01.2026 35mnt

Srividya Jandhyala is a professor of Management at ESSEC Business School in Singapore. Her research focuses on global strategy, geopolitics, and international business. She is the author of the best-selling book 'The Great Disruption: How Geopolitics is Changing Companies, Managers, and Work'. Before ESSEC, she was a Fung Global Fellow at Princeton University. She also served on the faculty of George Washington University in Washington, D.C., and she received her PhD in Management from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. In this podcast, we discuss: Geopolitics as a Structural Headwind The End of the "Flat World" Why Corporate Nationality Trumps Product Lessons from Mining and Energy Sectors The Jenga Tower of Global Friction Sovereign AI and Geopolitical Tech China's "Singapore" Playbook The Erosion of the Rules-Based Order Localization and the "Societal License" to Operate The Shift from "Event-Based" Thinking

Ep. 342: Rory Johnston on Trump's Bullish Impact on Oil Markets, and the Bearish Risks Ahead 23.01.2026 1j 6mnt

Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank. In this podcast, we discuss: Trump's Bullish Paradox Importance of China's SPR Why OPEC+ Hiked Production The "Oil on Water" Overhang Venezuela and Iran 2026 Outlook US Shale's H2 Roll-over Long term demand outlook

Ep. 341: Phil Suttle on Trump's Populism, the Productivity Mystery, and Global Disruption 16.01.2026 45mnt

Phil is the founder of Suttle Economics – a leading research consultancy. Before that, he held senior roles at Tudor, the Institute of International Finance (IIF), JP Morgan, Barclays, the New York Fed and World Bank. He was educated at Oxford University and lives in the US. In the podcast, we talk about: US Labour Market Dissonance Trump's "Elizabeth Warren" Populism The Productivity Mystery Fed Under Pressure Sticky Inflation Through 2027 Global Business Disruptions Extreme Oil Volatility Japan's Policy Pivot China's Sluggish Consumer European and UK Growth Historical Parallels to Populism