NAB Morning Call

Weekend Edition: Taxing time for the gas industry 17.07.2026 27分

Friday 17th July 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.The petroleum resource rent tax has been around since 1988. It was introduced by the Hawke government as a way to tax the super-profits from petroleum and gas companies extracting offshore resources, without reducing the incentive for new investments. There have been many tweaks to the system over the years, some following the Callaghan Review, commissioned by Scott Morrison in 2017. Now, the government is indicating it wants to see more money from these companies, which would mean more ‘tweaks’ to the system, or perhaps a totally new approach. But that’s easier said than done. Lachlan Vass, research manager at the e61 Institute, joins Phil to talk through the rationale behind the original approach, what’s changed, and why more changes might work, but could also be costly or counterproductive. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

US Moderate Exceptionalism 16.07.2026 12分

Friday17th July 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s been a quiet day for data but another busy 24 hours for action in the Gulf. In the US retail sales rose, the Philly fed manufacturing index is up, job claims are down – and for a reminder of how great things are, Donald trump is giving an address to the nation this morning our time. Phil talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about this moderate rise in US exceptionalism and discusses why oil has fallen despite declining hope for a peaceful resolution to the conflict. It’s been stuck in a tight trading range the last few days, what will push it out of that and in which direction? Inflation expectations from the Michigan Fed’s Consumer Survey today will be of interest, but it’s a light calendar for data releases. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Living in the Seventies 15.07.2026 10分

Thursday 16th July 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Aussie dollar is back in the seventies for now, with a weaker US dollar, while the only answer the US President seems to have for the Iran situation is more military action. Could this challenge the downward trend in inflation? US PPI overnight was weaker than expected, adding to the softer CPI numbers the day before. Meanwhile, a slowdown in China’s growth, although there were some positive signs for the domestic economy. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to discuss all of this, plus the Bank of Canada decision overnight. They look ahead to US retail sales and UK GDP later on and explain why the pound is one of the strongest upward currency moves this morning. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A thing of the past, but not yet. 14.07.2026 15分

Wednesday 15th July 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAt his testimony to the House Financial Services Committee Kevin Warsh vowed to make today’s elevated inflation ‘a thing of the past’, whilst warning that softer inflation numbers overnight should not be seen as ‘mission accomplished’. NAB’s Skye Masters tells Phil that, even though expectations for a July rate hike have lessened, markets are still pricing in more than one this year. They also discuss yesterday’s NAB Business Survey and US bank earnings, and the President’s reversal on a 20% levy on goods passing through the Strait. But with tensions not easing, oil continues to rise in price. A busy day today as well with data from China, US, Europe and a rate decision by the Bank of Canada.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Guardian for hire 13.07.2026 15分

Tuesday 14th July 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump posted overnight that the US would blockade Iranian oil and charge shipping a 20% levy on the value of their cargo to help them through the Strait. As Phil discusses with NAB’s Ray Attrill it is a curious move for someone wanting to see oil price lower – it had the opposite effect, pushing oil up over 9 percent, even though many might discount it as just another Trump negotiating tactic. Tech stocks have taken a hit too. The focus today will be on US CPI, with the Fed’s Christopher Waller sounding increasingly hawkish. Tonight we’ll also get a flush of US bank quarterly earnings.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Markets cling to hope 12.07.2026 13分

Monday 13th July 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOil prices fell on Friday even though war-like behaviour in the Gulf escalated. The hostilities ramped up even further over the weekend, so can investors hold their nerve and keep oil prices below $80? Phil is joined by NAB’s Taylor Nugent to talk through the prospects for the week ahead – a week that includes US inflation and retail sales data, alongside a swathe of bank earnings, plus the NAB Business Survey for Australia and China’s Q2 GDP growth. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Weekend Edition: The ticking China timebomb 10.07.2026 31分

Friday 10th July 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.All is not so rosy in China despite the official figures showing continued strong growth. ‘It’s not as becalmed and orderly as the government would have us believe’, says George Magnus.  George is an independent economist and a research associate at the China centre at Oxford University and at the school of Oriental and African studies in London. He was previously chief economist at UBS and wrote ‘Red Flags: Why Xi’s China is in Jeopardy’. He joins Phil to talk about the unreliability of China’s growth data, in particular how the targeted high growth industries, supported by government investment, are overshadowing the broader economy, where wages are low, unemployment is high and growth is at a crawl. Meanwhile government debt is growing. How sustainable is this path and what does it mean for exporters deliver resources to China? ‘Hedging your future business risks might be a good thing,’ says George. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

We are over it! 09.07.2026 17分

Friday 10th July 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABHostilities continue to escalate in the Gulf yet oil prices have fallen and bond markets rallied. Are we over it? On today’s podcast NAB’s Sally Auld says markets are accepting there wil be low grade military action for some time to come, and oil will continue to trade in a quasi-equilibrium between $70 and $90. The Fed’s John Williams said overnight that he expects oil prices to fall as the year progresses, despite the rise in hostilities. He said he was more concerned about AI as a driver of inflation. Sally also talks to Phil about yesterday’s stellar manufacturing PMI and the fall in China’s inflation. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Trumps war of words 08.07.2026 14分

Thursday 9th July 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to discuss the latest moves in the Gulf, with President Trump declaring the ceasefire is over, with warning of renewed attacks on Iran. But will he push hard at the risk of escalating fuel prices for US citizens? Ken points to the President’s comments that meanwhile negotiations on a lasting deal continue in the background. Also today, the takeout from yesterday’s RBNZ meeting, the slightly hawkish FOMC minutes. Today China’s CPI and PPI are the main data points. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

It’s not over till it’s over 07.07.2026 16分

Wednesday 8th July 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOil rose a little overnight after Iran fired shots on ships approaching the Hormuz Strait. NAB’s Skye Masters says the price rise was probably capped by the release of the latest IEA forecast, forecasting a fall in demand and a further fall in prices next year. Bond yields have moved higher overnight, in part because of the Gulf situation, but also growing debt issuance, including a massive new increase from Amazon. Markets also responded unfavourably to Samsung’s forward guidance. Today the RBNZ is the focus, with a rate hike expected. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Back and buying 06.07.2026 16分

Tuesday 7th July 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWith the US back from their 4th July long weekend there’s been renewed interest in buying tech stocks. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to discuss this and more. Including OPEC+ upping oil production – isn’t it a little academic as supplies out of the Gulf are still restrained. The US services ISM showed us how, despite inflation, the US economy is still strong. Inflation is more of a concern for Japan, with wages data and household spending today adding to the picture. And Donald Trump is off to the NATO summit. Does he have his sights set on a resolution for the Ukraine crisis? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Is this where oil is now? 05.07.2026 16分

Monday 6th July 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBrent crude is holding on in the low seventies, despite all the uncertainty around Iran. This isn’t where most commentators expected it would land according to NAB’s Ray Attrill. Phil asks what this means for inflation expectations and how much of this was factored into NAB;’s latest FX forecasts released on Friday. Meanwhile, a quiet session on Friday with the US on holiday, but the Rating Dog Services PMI showed a surprisingly strong result, and the US Services ISM out tonight. This week is also pretty quiet, with the RBNZ rate decision the main event. Central bankers will step up to fill the void, with quite a few speaking opportunities in the week ahead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Weekend Edition: Geoff Wilson on Taxing the future 03.07.2026 29分

Friday 3rd July 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.The government’s newly minted capital gains tax (CGT) rules threaten to hold back productive investment. That’s the view of veteran fund manager Geoff Wilson, founder of Wilson Asset Management, who says the changes for equities and businesses will ultimately restrict job creation and limit wealth generation for younger Australians. While Geoff has no problem with shifting tax incentives away from established property, he warns that clipping the wings of risk-taking investors will stall the country's broader productivity. Are the government's minimum tax requirements fundamentally flawed, or are they a necessary step to level the playing field? Also, how deeply is social media shifting retail investment decisions, and have global AI valuations run dangerously ahead of reality? Tune in to hear one of Australia's most outspoken market experts deliver his unvarnished take on where local wealth is headed. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Soft jobs, but not too soft 02.07.2026 14分

Friday 3rd July 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe non-farm payrolls from the US overnight came in softer than expected, but NAB’s Rodrigo Catril strong enough for the Fed to dismiss concerns about the labour market and focus more of inflation. Phil asks him about the impact of this on bond markets, whilst equities have been hit by more AI concerns. With Anthropic reportedly teaming up with Samsung to develop their own bespoke chips it increasingly hard to know how to pick the winners. They also discuss the rise in the Yen. If Japanese authorities are looking at currency intervention could the thinner trading of a US holiday be the time to do that? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Nothing too Sintra-lating 01.07.2026 13分

Thursday 2nd July 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s been a quiet day on the markets. So, for a change, an edition of The Morning Call that doesn’t mention the words Iran or Gulf. Instead, the focus has been on that last panel session at the ECB Forum in Sintra. Kevin Warsh didn’t give anything away on monetary policy, except to reiterate that from now on they won’t be giving anything away on monetary policy, but he did give his thoughts on the progress of inflation. NAB’s Skye Masters joins Phil to walk through that meeting, the weaker than expected inflation numbers for Europe, the slide in the US manufacturing ISM and a preview of tonight’s non-farm payrolls. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Not so Zen about the Yen 30.06.2026 15分

Wednesday 1st July 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Yen fell further again overnight, hitting another 40-year low, but NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there’s no indication of when and if there will be any further currency intervention. US equities push higher and oil falls lower as Iran news falls off the front pages and investors focus more on the fundamentals. The RBA minutes yesterday reiterated that conditions were ‘now probably somewhat restrictive’, but was that enough to change expectations for a cut? Meanwhile house price data out this morning shows a drop in house prices for Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra. Plus, the latest European inflation data, China’s PMIs, confidence and jobs data from the US, with US manufacturing ISM out today. The main event could be that Sintra closing panel, with Kevin Warsh joining Lagarde, Bailey and Macklem, but given his opposition to forward guidance what can he talk about? The weather? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

What’s On: Doha, Tokyo, Sintra, Washington, Moscow 29.06.2026 18分

Tuesday 30th June 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAs NAB’s Gavin Friend discusses with Phil, five cities are the focus for markets right now. In Doha, there are high hopes that high-level peace talks are resuming to stabilize maritime transit through the Strait of Hormuz. In Tokyo, markets are on the look out for a currency intervention after the Japanese yen languished to a staggering 40-year low past 161.96 against the greenback. In Sintra, the global monetary elite are gathering for the ECB forum, where AI risk is very much the agenda. In Washington a landmark 5-4 U.S. Supreme Court ruling fiercely defends central bank independence by blocking the White House from firing Fed Governor Lisa Cook. Finally, in Moscow, Vladimir Putin has publicly admitted that targeted Ukrainian infrastructure strikes are severely impacting Russian life as local fuel supplies run short. Your whistle stop tour starts now! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Skirmishes, Sintra and US Jobs Week 28.06.2026 14分

Monday 29th June 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNobody can accuse markets of being overly cynical about peace negotiations, says NAB’s Ken Crompton on this morning’s podcast. Oil fell on Friday despite skirmishes between Iran and Iran as Tehran seeks to reassert its control over the Strait. Most data on Friday were second tier stuff, with the surprise in the size of the US goods trade deficit the most surprising. Fed speakers over the weekend were sounding hawkish, and there will be a lot of interest in what Kevin Warsh says in Sintra this week. Yes, as Phil describes it, it’s the glitz and the glamour of the ECB Central Bankers Forum in Portugal, which is likely to provide a drip feed of news this week, alongside US jobs data, culminating in non-farm payrolls on Thursday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Weekend Edition: AI - Revolution, bubble or doomsday? 26.06.2026 30分

Friday 26th June 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Is artificial intelligence on track to save mankind, or is the relentless hype hiding a massive financial crash and an ultimate existential threat? This weekend Phil tackles these profound questions with BCA Research's Chief Global Investment Strategist, Peter Berezin, following his controversial paper, “Boom Before Doom: The Terrifying Reason to Be Bullish on AI”. Drawing sharp parallels to the 2000 dotcom bust, Peter challenges the "winner-take-all" assumptions fueling today’s record data centre investments. He warns that computing power is rapidly becoming a commoditised, low-margin utility akin to historical railroads, canals, and airlines—destined to lose investors billions even as it reshapes society. But if the financial structural risks aren't enough, the episode pivots to a chilling medium-term outlook: if first-mover tech giants fail to generate sustainable profits, what happens if they intentionally give AI models full autonomy over real-world infrastructure and corporate operations simply to slash human labour costs? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Peace de Résistance 25.06.2026 15分

Friday 26th June 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABCrude oil prices are marching back up after a Singaporean tanker was fired upon in the Strait of Hormuz. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to talk through the market response to that and to the sharp move up in Micron stock after the chip maker provided stellar forward guidance. Meanwhile, core U.S. PCE inflation printed exactly as expected at 0.3% monthly, nudging the annual rate up to 3.4% and cementing a restrictive Fed baseline. Closer to home, they look at the Australian employment print for May, after a noisy April print, Ray says it confirms a resilient yet gradually cooling local labour market that aligns cleanly with NAB’s expectations that the RBA will continue their current holding pattern for the rest of the year. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.