NAB Morning Call

Epizodai

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  Higher and Higher 15.09.2026 14min

  Wednesday16th September 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBond yields are still at multi-year highs, driven by inflation concerns, in turn driven by oil prices, which are still rising, alongside expectations for rate hikes from central banks. NAB’s Skye Masters says markets have almost fully priced in a rate hike from the Fed tomorrow morning (our time) but there will be interest in the dots plot (whilst it’s still a thing) to determine future moves. Phil and Skye also look at the rise in Japanese Government Bonds Yields. As Phil points out, the last time they were this high nobody had heard of the Spice Girls. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  More of the same 14.09.2026 13min

  Tuesday 15th September 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABRising bond yields, rising oil prices, bond yields higher. Today is a repetition of yesterday as the same pressures drive markets - the Middle East, AI growth concerns, inflation fears and central bank expectations. NAB’s Sally Auld joins Phil to discuss market reactions and where she thinks expectations might be a little over-egged. Why, for example, asks Phil, is the market expecting hikes from the Bank of Canada this week when yesterday’s data shows inflation seems to be more under control there than in most places? Today’s UK jobs data precedes a Bank of England rate announcement on Thursday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  Slowdown! 13.09.2026 13min

  Monday 14th September 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s curious that the CEO of a major AI platform argues that AI development should be slowed down in case it causes serious problems, when that same company has its sights set on a share market listing. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril makes that point on today’s podcast with Phil, as they also examine the impact of Friday’s higher than expected inflation read from the US. And the rising uncertainty for middle east oil supplies. And should we take Canada seriously when they talk about becoming an associate member of the EU or is it just talk to upset the US? Phil suggests if they really want to upset the US they should join the Euro! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  Weekend Edition: Australia’s Place in the AI Race: Passenger or Pioneer? 11.09.2026 31min

  Friday 11th September 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.As global capital expenditure on artificial intelligence climbs toward $1.8 trillion, Australia finds itself at a pivotal crossroads between world-class research and commercial execution. On this weekend’s NAB Morning Call, Phil Dobbie sits down with former CSIRO Chief Executive Dr. Larry Marshall to examine whether the nation is poised to pioneer high-value AI solutions or remain a passive consumer of overseas technology. While Australia boasts an impressive legacy of scientific breakthroughs—from Wi-Fi to solar cell designs—Dr. Marshall warns that a historical failure to commercialise ideas leaves local jobs and industries exposed as AI replaces entry-level roles. However, by deploying a clear "market vision" and leveraging domestic strengths in areas like photonics to slash data centre energy demands, Australia can capture genuine economic value, create augmented "superpower" jobs, and secure its strategic footing in the global AI landscape. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  No brainer 10.09.2026 14min

  Friday 11th September 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAt a press conference overnight ECB’s Christine Lagarde said it was a ‘no brainer’ to lift rates, given the inflation pressures and a resilient economy. More is expected according to NAB’s Skye Masters, who joins Phil on this morning’s podcast. They discuss the two big moves overnight - oil prices, now well beyond $100 a barrel - and the continued rise in bond yields, with 10 year treasuries rising by 11 basis points and 30 years hitting the highest level since 2007. With no obvious driver in the day’s news flow Skye wonders whether a chunk of the moves can be put down to positioning. There will be a lot of focus on today’s moves, particularly ahead of US CPI, out tonight. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  Buybacks and battles - big moves in oil and bond yields 09.09.2026 13min

  Thursday 10th September 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOil prices rose further overnight as Iran fired at US navy vessels, forcing counter attacks from both sides. One Iranian official described it as an existential fight for survival for which there is no backing down. Bond yields rose sharply in the US and Europe overnight, despite Scott Bessen t’s announcement of a $6 billion buyback in 10–20-year bonds. NAB’s Sally Auld says yields rose because the size of the buyback was less than expected, whilst the same factors remain to push yields higher, including the level of debt and the competition from bond issuance from AI companies who continue to up their spending. Tonight the ECB is expected to lift rates, as markets prepare for US CPI tomorrow, with PPI data out tonight. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  Tit for tat tariffs 08.09.2026 14min

  Wednesday 9th September 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOil is higher because more is happening in the Middle East. That’s adding to inflation concerns. There are tensions elsewhere too- between the US and Israel (Israel has closed a UK consulate in East Jerusalem), and between the US and Canada with Canada imposing tit for tat tariffs, whilst promising closer ties with Europe. Locally the NAB Business Survey showed a move down in confidence, as did the Westpac consumer survey. Phil asks NAB’s Ken Crompton how much falling house prices had to play in both those results.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  Yen’s Night, Copper High 07.09.2026 14min

  Tuesday 8th September 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABTrade was thin overnight with the US on holiday, but the Yen pushed to its highest level since February, beating the US-Japan coordinated attempt to push it higher in late July. NAB’s Gavin friend says markets are assuming the BoJ will do the right thing, which would make the Yen seem undervalued. Oil is higher and could easily nudge over US$100 for Brent over the next day or two. Copper also hit a high as demand continues to outstrip supply, and traders buy ahead for fear of US tariffs coming to fruition. Today there’s a lot to focus on locally, including two interviews with RBA speakers, the NAB Business Survey and Westpac’s Consumer Sentiment report. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  Payrolls reinforce rate rise, but Trump wants a cut 06.09.2026 14min

  Monday 7th September 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNon-farm payrolls numbers in the US on Friday were strong, including an upward revision to the previous two months. NAB’s Ray Attrill says it is difficult to argue against the idea the labour market there is in particularly good health. That removes one reason for the Fed not to lift rates next week, so everything now rests on the CPI and PPI data this week. The US president  meanwhile argues that the Fed should be taking rates to the lowest in the world, whilst threatening to stop trade with any country they have a trade deficit with. Oil moved higher on Friday and could easily top $100 this week as tensions heighten in the Gulf, despite Presidential claims that oil traffic is close to pre-war levels. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  Weekend Edition: Brad Carr’s Five Big Worries 04.09.2026 34min

  Friday 4th September 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.It’s an uncertain world, perhaps more than ever before. Brad Carr is NAB’s Executive for Geopolitical Risk and he joins Phil to discuss the five themes that concern him. That includes the ongoing war in the Middle East and the increasing sophistication of cybercrime. The third issue is the new trade order, where global supply changes are being replaced by self-reliance and self-interest. We are also about to face the Super El Niño, impacting the Australian agricultural sector which is already struggling with higher fertiliser costs. Finally, Brad suggests increasing assertiveness from China presents a threat. There are other concerns too, including the ongoing war in Ukraine, shifts in European politics and the multifaceted risks of AI. Brad acknowledges he is often portrayed as the doomsayer at NAB, but he said the positive counter is that Australia is protected from the worst aspects of much of this, by nature of our geography, geology and political structure. And Brad outlines three areas of focus we should adopt to ensure we benefit from the uncertainty, not get dragged down by it. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  Waller Sounds the Bell of Hope for Inflation Outlook 03.09.2026 14min

  Friday 4th September 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere might not need to be a rate hike from the Fed. That’s been the takeout from a Reuters interview overnight with the bank's Christopher Waller, who suggested there are signs of disinflation which might mean there’s less need for a policy adjustment. There was a swift response in bond markets and a weakening US dollar. There’s also been a substantial rise in the Yen. Phil asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, why? Waller’s comments make next week’s CPI figures more significant than ever and Rodrigo suggests the number to look for. Meanwhile, non-farm payrolls tonight will also be influential, with some signs that the jobs market is weakening. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  Unexpected hawks and doves 02.09.2026 15min

  Thursday 3rd September 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUnease in the Gulf continues to push oil prices higher today and fears of persistent inflation mean bond yields continue to rise in Europe. expectations for rate hikes, eve n as they moderate a little in the US. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phi to talk through a mixed session, influenced by a hawkish Bank of Canada, a dovish RBNZ and words from the fed’s John Williams suggesting inflationary pressures in the US might be easing. Meanwhile yesterday’s stronger than expected GDP numbers for Australia reinforce NAB’s view that the RBA will hike later this month.   Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  Attacks, inflation and vigilantes 01.09.2026 16min

  Wednesday 2nd September 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOil prices have risen sharply with further attacks from both sides in the Gulf. That’s pushed bond yields higher in a world that is struggling to contain inflation. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to talk about the issue of rising yields which, in Japan have hit a 30 year high. New UK PM Andy Burnham gave his first speech to parliament, and yields there have risen 16bp, which Ray describes as another example of bond vigilantes at work. They also look ahead to today’s Australian GDP numbers, which are unlikely to change NAB’s view that the RBA will lift rates at their next meeting. Meanwhile the RBNZ is expected to lift rates today, with the Bank of Canada holding back for now. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  Month end, but no end for Iran 31.08.2026 16min

  Tuesday 1st September 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMonth end rebalancing has been complicated by Scott Bessent talking up the case for successive rate rises by the Bank of Japan, to help boost the Yen, whilst attacks from both sides in the Gulf has reaffirmed that the war is not over and oil prices aren’t likely to come down anytime soon. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to talk through all this, plus the continued weakness in the Chinese economy, and the latest data to feed into tomorrow’s Australian GDP numbers.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  Hawkish Warsh 30.08.2026 15min

  Monday 31st August 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABCould Kevin Warsh be more hawkish than Jerome Powell was? NAB’s Ken Crompton talks to Phil about the Fed chair’s speech at Jackson Hole, which now has markets pricing a greater chance than not of a rate hike at the next meeting. They also discuss President Trump’s plan for a US government majority stake in a massive new Venezuelan oil company. Will it happen? There’s little evidence so far of Operation Economic Outcast. There’s a busy week ahead for data, including European inflation today, Australian GDP mid-week, two central banks and US non-farm payrolls on Friday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  Weekend Edition: Platinum, gold’s harder working cousin 28.08.2026 28min

  Friday 28th August 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.This week Phil speaks with Edward Sterck, Director of Research at the World Platinum Investment Council, to explore whether platinum is emerging as a higher-torque alternative to gold in the precious metals complex. Sterck explains how sustained market deficits—driven by severe geological supply constraints and deep-level underground mining limitations—initially catalyzed platinum's price rally before broader macro trends like US dollar debasement and geopolitical tensions began driving its movements alongside gold and silver. The conversation highlights platinum’s unique position, contrasting gold's monetary status with platinum's vital industrial demand in green hydrogen technologies, emissions reduction, and expanding applications in AI data centers and semiconductor manufacturing. With global mine supply heavily concentrated in South Africa and Russia and facing structural headwinds that prevent quick production scalings, he highlights why platinum offers higher upside leverage (a 1.3 beta to gold) and why supply deficits are projected to persist well into the next decade. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  A rate hike and a cause for celebration 27.08.2026 17min

  Friday 28th August 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB has made the call that they expect the RBA to lift rates in September. Markets are pricing in a 50% chance of a hike. Expectations rose after this week’s higher than expected inflation number. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to talk through NAB’s reasoning, as well as yesterday’s Capex numbers and upside surprise in household spending. They also discuss the rise in equities following yesterday’s NVIDIA earnings, oil rising against tensions in the Gulf and Ukraine, and rising hawkishness from the Fed alongside the Jackson Hole Symposium, ahead of Kevin Warsh speaking tonight. And a cause for celebration tomorrow! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  Refusing to back down 26.08.2026 14min

  Thursday 27th August 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWherever you look inflation is not coming down as quickly as hoped or expected. NAB’s Sally Auld identifies why yesterday’s Australian CPI numbers were such a surprise, and why it’s heightened expectations for a rate hike. That’s pushed front end yields higher, which has boosted the Aussie dollar, even against a rising US dollar. The RBA may not be alone. US Core PCE numbers showed inflation is persistent there too, and the ECB’s Isabel Schnabel was sounding particularly hawkish as well yesterday. Soon, NVIDIA earnings are out, the bellwether stock for AI. Their shares are down ahead of the close. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  The Strait of Good Hope 25.08.2026 17min

  Wednesday 26th August 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOil prices fell sharply overnight, driving front-end bond yields lower and boosting shares. Phil asks NAB’s Gavin Friend what’s changed? There are reports that more oil is being shipped from Iraq, possibly with support being offered Iran, but the Achille’s heal of Operation Economic Rescue is how can you go hard on Iran’s trading partners without upsetting China and kicking off another trade war. The trade war with Canada meanwhile continues to ratchet up, whilst economic data from the US was largely bad, including a very disappointing consumer sentiment survey which suggests the future is less bright. Today the monthly CPI read is the key data point locally. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  The Economic Outcast and Other Stories 24.08.2026 14min

  Tuesday 25th August 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThis morning NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to discuss Scott Bessent’s plan to isolate Iran economically and how it could impact China. There’s also been market reaction to Bessent’s plan to fund some of his bond buybacks by drawing down surplus funds from the Treasury account at the Fed. The threat of a 50 percent tariff on car exports from Canada is the latest iteration from the ongoing trade war, but it won’t be imposed till well after the mid-terms. Today is quiet data wise, giving you more time to read the RBA minutes! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.