The DeFi Report

Epizodai

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  Can the Economy Handle Rate Hikes? 29.07.2026 34min

  The Fed may be forced to hike into an economy that looks strong on the surface but is weakening underneath. Mike and Ryan unpack the fault lines in labor, housing, savings, and credit, why the AI trade may be rolling over, and how one final risk-off move could send Bitcoin toward $55K before the next major buying opportunity.----🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBEhttps://thedefireport.cc/tdr-rsshttps://thedefireport.io/friendshttps://thedefireport.transistor.fm/https://x.com/the_defi_reporthttps://x.com/JustDeauIt----TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro0:17 Fed Hike Shock Ahead2:36 Market Signals Tighten6:37 Fed Independence Questioned11:10 Economy Under Pressure16:32 Housing Fault Lines21:14 Dollar Strength Warning24:17 After the Sell-Off28:40 Global Liquidity Outlook31:00 Portfolio Patience----Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.
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  Bitcoin’s Bear Market Is 80% Over? One More Lower Low Coming? 22.07.2026 43min

  Bitcoin may be 80% through its bear market, but the bottom still isn’t confirmed. Ryan and Mike unpack weak demand, rising macro pressure, the risk of one more lower low, and why $63K and $73K now matter most.----🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBEhttps://thedefireport.cc/tdr-rsshttps://thedefireport.io/friendshttps://thedefireport.transistor.fm/https://x.com/the_defi_reporthttps://x.com/JustDeauIt----TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro3:27 Fair Value and Capitulation8:10 Time-Based Selloff13:07 Searching for Demand16:13 Miners Under Pressure18:45 Strategy and Saylor21:25 Iran and Oil Risk28:28 AI Speculation Peaks34:06 Macro or On-Chain?37:04 Bitcoin Levels to Watch41:25 TDR Updates and Outlook----Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.
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  TDR Pro’s 1st-Year Portfolio Audit: Wins, Learnings & the Current Portfolio 15.07.2026 48min

  Mike opens the books on TDR Pro’s first year: a portfolio up 13% through a crypto bear market, 53% realized gains, and a timely risk-off call before Bitcoin fell 45%. Ryan and Mike audit the wins, misses, and process behind the performance.----📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCEhttps://bankless.cc/Galaxy               ----🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBEhttps://thedefireport.cc/tdr-ythttps://thedefireport.io/friendshttps://obsidian.md/ https://obsidian.md/clipper https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/https://x.com/the_defi_reporthttps://x.com/JustDeauIt----TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro5:12 Portfolio Goals and Sleep Well10:46 Realized Gains and Bitcoin Alpha13:50 Unrealized Gains in Bear Market17:30 Lessons From the Bull Run23:34 Misses, Lessons, and Flexibility31:01 Current Portfolio Sectors36:52 Using TDR Pro With AI42:57 Transparency and Performance Updates46:33 Final Grade for the Year----Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.
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  Is the Bitcoin Low Really In? 08.07.2026 39min

  Bitcoin bounced, but the bottom still isn’t confirmed. Ryan and Mike unpack the missing coin-rotation signal, weak ETF and spot demand, Saylor’s BTC sale, and why $50K remains in play.----📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCEhttps://bankless.cc/Galaxy              ----🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBEhttps://thedefireport.cc/tdr-rsshttps://thedefireport.io/friendshttps://thedefireport.transistor.fm/https://x.com/the_defi_reporthttps://x.com/JustDeauIt----TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro0:14 Bitcoin Low Or Not?5:06 Trench Revival In Crypto6:55 Why Mike Still Sees Lower12:59 The Coin Rotation Debate19:31 ETF Demand And Volume Check23:52 Saylor, Clarity, And Zcash34:25 Closing Bets And Performance Report----Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.
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  Bitcoin’s Green Light…Buy Now or Wait for One More Flush? 01.07.2026 37min

  Bitcoin is back near historic buy-zone levels, but the bottom still isn’t confirmed. Ryan and Mike unpack the green-light indicators, the risk of one final flush, and what past cycles say about future returns.----📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCEhttps://bankless.cc/Galaxy             ----🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBEhttps://thedefireport.cc/tdr-ythttps://thedefireport.io/friendshttps://thedefireport.transistor.fm/https://x.com/the_defi_reporthttps://x.com/JustDeauIt----TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro0:22 Bitcoin Buy Now Debate4:57 Key Cycle Indicators8:39 Rotation Still Missing14:50 Macro Risks Ahead27:02 Patience And Returns30:24 Price Levels To Watch35:11 Drawdown And Outlook36:48 More Reports Coming----Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.
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  Why does BTC continue to track the 4-Year Cycle? 24.06.2026 46min

  Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle may look arbitrary, but the data tells a deeper story. Ryan and Mike break down how leverage, credit, stablecoins, DeFi loans, miners, and Strategy drive crypto’s recurring booms and busts, and whether one final domino still needs to fall.----📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCEhttps://bankless.cc/Galaxy            ----🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBEhttps://thedefireport.cc/tdr-rsshttps://thedefireport.io/friendshttps://thedefireport.transistor.fm/https://x.com/the_defi_reporthttps://x.com/JustDeauIt----TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro5:21 Bitcoin’s Capital Base15:00 Leverage Drives the Premium20:07 Stablecoins and VC Flow23:08 On-Chain Loan Cycles26:08 Perps and Treasury Leverage32:14 Deleveraging and Hidden Risks34:29 Miner Capitulation37:12 Why Four Years?40:08 ETH and Solana Positioning----Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.
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  Bitcoin’s Bottom Case, ETF Outflows & The No-Buyers Problem 17.06.2026 44min

  Bitcoin may be in the buy zone, but the demand signal still looks weak. David and Mike debate whether the bottom is already in, why ETF outflows and muted buyer interest matter, what realized losses and realized cap are signaling, and whether BTC needs one more painful reset before the next real opportunity.----📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCEhttps://bankless.cc/Galaxy          ----🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBEhttps://thedefireport.cc/tdr-ythttps://thedefireport.io/friendshttps://thedefireport.transistor.fm/https://x.com/the_defi_reporthttps://x.com/JustDeauIt----TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro2:01 Pain, Patience, & Cycles5:03 Shallower Drawdowns?7:22 ETF Flows and Demand9:34 Saylor’s Canary15:32 Realized Losses Review23:00 Bitcoin Versus Nasdaq25:23 AI Bubble Meets Crypto28:37 Oil, War, & Inflation33:25 Hyperliquid’s Market Split38:28 $LIT & $WLD Momentum40:42 Pro Portfolio Playbook----Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.
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  Has BTC Entered the "Buy Zone?" 10.06.2026 52min

  Has Bitcoin entered the buy zone, or is one final flush still ahead? Mike and Ryan break down why BTC under $67K looks attractive for long-term buyers, what realized losses and top-buyer cohorts reveal about seller exhaustion, and how AI weakness, inflation, and rising odds of Fed hikes could shape the next major move.----📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCEhttps://bankless.cc/Galaxy        ----🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBEhttps://thedefireport.cc/tdr-ythttps://thedefireport.io/friendshttps://thedefireport.transistor.fm/https://x.com/the_defi_reporthttps://x.com/JustDeauIt----TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro1:39 False Bull Flag Revisited5:32 Tracking Deep Value Signals11:04 Strategy Fear & Unwind18:09 Who Is Buying Bitcoin?22:15 Signs of Seller Exhaustion25:08 Bitcoin Leads the Nasdaq26:33 AI Boom Or Bust35:58 Macro Risks & Inflation43:20 TDR Portfolio Strategy48:50 Buying Bitcoin Under 67K----Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.
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  Bitcoin’s $60K Test Just Got More Serious 03.06.2026 36min

  Bitcoin is testing a critical zone, but this bear market is starting to look different. Mike and David break down why $60K may be the next major level, how Strategy’s first BTC sale and STRC stress could shake market confidence, why ETF outflows are piling up, and why assets like Zcash, HYPE, Lighter, and NEAR are breaking out while Bitcoin weakens.----📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCEhttps://bankless.cc/Galaxy      ----🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBEhttps://thedefireport.cc/tdr-rss  https://thedefireport.io/friendshttps://thedefireport.transistor.fm/https://x.com/the_defi_reporthttps://x.com/JustDeauIt----TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro1:22 Crypto Cycle Turning4:42 Bitcoin Near Key Support9:16 STRC Signals Stress20:42 ETF Outflows Mount23:58 Robinhood & Portfolio Bets28:49 DeFi Builders Gain Ground31:54 Bullish on Crypto Alpha35:24 Meme Coins Still Stick35:46 Closing & Disclaimers----Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.
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  Bitcoin’s Unfinished Pain & Altcoin Hype or Head Fake? 27.05.2026 43min

  Bitcoin is stuck in a quiet range, but the signals are getting louder. Mike and Ryan break down why the mini altcoin rally may be a head fake, what realized losses suggest about Bitcoin’s unfinished pain, why ETF outflows and Saylor’s bond move matter, and the macro risks that could force another leg lower.----📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCEhttps://bankless.cc/Galaxy    ----🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBEhttps://thedefireport.cc/tdr-rss https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/https://x.com/the_defi_reporthttps://x.com/JustDeauIt----TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro3:46 Altcoin Hype or Head Fake?13:06 Measuring Bitcoin Bear Market Pain22:50 ETF Outflows & Whale Selling29:25 Iran, Inflation, & Macro Risks37:35 Bitcoin Levels and Summer Positioning42:55 Closing & Disclaimers----Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.
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  Signs of a Cycle Bottom? 20.05.2026 37min

  Bitcoin may have already hit its cycle low, but the confirmation signal still hasn’t fired. Mike and Ryan break down the bull case for a $60K bottom, why realized cap and supply in profit matter, what top-buyer cohorts are still signaling, and how inflation, rising yields, and a potential Fed hike could force one more drop.----📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCEhttps://bankless.cc/Galaxy  ----🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBEhttps://thedefireport.cc/tdr-rsshttps://thedefireport.transistor.fm/https://x.com/the_defi_reporthttps://x.com/JustDeauItThe Watch List: Zcash (ZEC)https://thedefireport.io/research/the-watch-list-zcash-zec----TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro4:16 Realized Cap Signals12:17 Supply Profit Check14:11 RSI & Cycle Lows18:01 Coins Still Need Rotation20:51 Inflation & Yields31:00 Key Levels & Scenarios34:17 Altcoin Rotation Watch36:52 Closing & Disclaimers----Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.
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  Momentum is slowing as macro risks are rising 13.05.2026 33min

  Bitcoin just closed above a key bear market resistance level, but Mike still isn’t ready to call a regime shift. Ryan and Mike break down why this rally looks stretched, what $79K, $82.7K, and $85K are signaling, how weak spot volume and rising macro risk could slow momentum, and why June may be the real test for bulls.----📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCEhttps://bankless.cc/Galaxy  ----🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBEhttps://thedefireport.cc/tdr-rss https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/https://x.com/the_defi_reporthttps://x.com/JustDeauIt----TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro1:45 Bear Market Symmetry6:00 Comparing Past Cycles14:05 Who’s Selling at 80K?19:23 Weak Market Conditions23:10 Momentum Starts Fading27:37 June’s Historical Weakness29:12 Key Bitcoin Price Levels32:40 Closing & Disclaimers----Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.
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  Are we still in a bear market rally? 06.05.2026 35min

  Bitcoin just completed the longest bear market rally of the last two cycles, but under the hood, the data still looks eerily similar to 2022. Mike and Ryan break down the battle between shorts and spot buyers, why $85K may decide the market, what ETF flows and Saylor’s bid are really signaling, and the setup that could trap both bulls and bears.----📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCEhttps://bankless.cc/Galaxy----🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBEhttps://thedefireport.cc/rss  https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/https://thedefireport.io/https://x.com/the_defi_reporthttps://x.com/JustDeauIt----TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro3:03 Market Dynamics and Institutional Influence5:53 Trader Sentiment & Market Positioning10:04 Spot Market Analysis15:10 ETF Flows & Institutional Demand19:06 Market Structure & Cycle Analysis21:09 Bitcoin's Correlation & NASDAQ26:05 Critical Price Zones for Bitcoin30:12 Mike's Investment Strategy & Market Outlook33:17 The Marshmallow Test 34:17 Closing & Disclaimers----Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.
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  Still Patient? Why This Bitcoin Rally May Be on Borrowed Time 29.04.2026 40min

  Bitcoin has the “perfect” bull setup, record shorts, aggressive squeezes, and billions in buying, yet it still can’t break $80K. Ryan and Mike unpack why that disconnect matters, from weak spot demand and short-term holder behavior to fading liquidity tailwinds, and what past cycles suggest comes next. They also break down the key level that decides the market, and how to position if this rally is on borrowed time.----📣GALAXYONE | SOLANA STAKINGhttps://bankless.cc/GalaxyOne    ----🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBEhttps://thedefireport.io/friends https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/https://thedefireport.io/https://x.com/the_defi_reporthttps://x.com/JustDeauIt----TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro3:57 Bitcoin Market Dynamics6:51 Short-Term Holder Insights15:22 Fed Policy Implications19:31 Liquidity and Economic Outlook27:44 Crypto Portfolio Strategy30:09 Navigating Altcoin Markets38:47 Closing & Disclaimers----Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.
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  Why This Rally May Be Too Early 22.04.2026 32min

  Bitcoin is pushing back toward $80K, but the underlying data still looks like a classic bear market setup. Mike and Ryan break down why “hot money” from the 2025 top hasn’t fully rotated yet, how past cycles suggest more downside or time is needed, and why dip buyers may be stepping in too early. They also explain what real bottom formation looks like onchain and why this rally could be more about positioning than a true shift in trend. ----📣GALAXYONE | SOLANA STAKINGhttps://bankless.cc/GalaxyOne    ----🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBEhttps://thedefireport.io/friends https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/https://thedefireport.io/https://x.com/the_defi_reporthttps://x.com/JustDeauIt----TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro1:44 Mike's Evolving Thinking on Altcoins5:12 Analyzing Bitcoin's Cost Basis Data8:11 Understanding Bitcoin's Cohorts10:08 Exploring New & Old Money Patterns14:20 Comparing Cohorts Across Cycles18:09 Key Takeaways from the Cohort Analysis26:33 Portfolio Moves & Strategy Discussion32:07 Closing & Disclaimers----Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.
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  The Bottom Is Not In! Why We Get 4-Year Cycles 15.04.2026 46min

  Bitcoin is up 19% from the February lows, but Mike argues this still looks more like a bear market bounce than a true bottom. He and Ryan break down why weak ETF flows, soft onchain activity, fading risk appetite, and rolling liquidity still do not look like the kind of setup that usually marks a durable low. They also map out the key BTC levels that would force a change in view, and what real capitulation tends to look like when the cycle finally turns.----📣GALAXYONE | SOLANA STAKINGhttps://bankless.cc/GalaxyOne  ----🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBEhttps://thedefireport.io/friends https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/https://thedefireport.io/https://x.com/the_defi_reporthttps://x.com/JustDeauIt----TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro1:50 Polling Investor Sentiment4:22 The Four-Year Cycle Explained13:02 Market Dynamics and Investor Psychology17:17 Examining Current Liquidity Conditions27:31 Fiscal Policy and Its Impact29:07 On-Chain Analysis of Bitcoin39:10 Understanding Market Trends and Patterns44:04 Closing & Disclaimers----Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.
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  Ceasefire Trap? Bulls vs. Bears—Who Wins? 08.04.2026 36min

  Markets ripped on the Iran ceasefire headlines, but Mike says the bigger bearish process may still be unfolding.Mike and David break down why Bitcoin, oil, global liquidity, and the S&P’s 200-day moving average are all flashing mixed signals, and why the real bottom may still require more pain, patience, and weak-hand capitulation.----📣GALAXYONE | SOLANA STAKINGhttps://bankless.cc/GalaxyOne  ----🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBEhttps://thedefireport.io/friends https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/https://thedefireport.io/https://x.com/the_defi_reporthttps://x.com/JustDeauIt----TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro2:56 Market Reactions to Ceasefire6:28 Analyzing the Bull & Bear Cases11:02 The Pessimist's Perspective15:34 Iran's Strategic Position22:37 Understanding the Liquidity Cycle26:58 The Long-Term View on Bitcoin31:34 Short-Term Market Signals36:08 Closing & Disclaimers----Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.
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  BTC Cycle Low? & Views on macro, altcoins, & crypto equities 01.04.2026 35min

  Bitcoin is down 47% from the highs, but Mike says the real “fat pitch” still hasn’t arrived.Mike and Ryan break down where BTC could actually bottom using realized price, the 200-week moving average, and deep value onchain signals, plus why oil, Iran, rates, and recession risk still matter more than most crypto investors think.----📣GALAXYONE | SOLANA STAKINGhttps://bankless.cc/GalaxyOne  ----🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBEhttps://thedefireport.io/friends https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/https://thedefireport.io/https://x.com/the_defi_reporthttps://x.com/JustDeauIt----TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro2:16 Buffett's Market Perspective4:45 Galaxy One Staking Launch6:31 War's Impact on Markets11:07 Energy Crisis Analysis14:03 Fed Rate Predictions18:11 Speculating on Trump's Announcement24:50 Bitcoin Price Analysis28:14 Deep Value & Market Strategy32:53 Altcoins & Crypto Equities35:04 Closing & Disclaimers----Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.
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  Nasdaq vs. Bitcoin: Surviving the 200-Day Breakdown 25.03.2026 37min

  The Nasdaq just broke its 200-day moving average. In 2022, that was the signal for a 35% collapse. Is history repeating?Mike and Ryan dive into the "Complacency Trap," why the war in Iran is actually a strategic play for China’s oil, and the onchain data suggesting Bitcoin hasn't hit "Deep Value" yet. They also break down the 2022 analog, the 6.4% mortgage rate reality, and why the "Trump Prize" won't save the markets this time.----📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCEhttps://bankless.cc/Galaxy ----🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBEhttps://thedefireport.io/friends https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/https://thedefireport.io/https://x.com/the_defi_reporthttps://x.com/JustDeauIt----TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro1:43 Market Complacency & The War in Iran7:45 Geopolitical Implications of Oil10:04 The US-China Connection13:26 Lessons from 202216:44 On-Chain Bitcoin Insights22:14 Risk Asset Market Psychology26:33 ETF Inflows and Market Health28:54 Bitcoin Price Targets32:44 TDR Portfolio Update33:56 Patience in Bear Markets36:28 Closing & Disclaimers----Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.
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  Saylor is Back: How does this impact market structure? 18.03.2026 36min

  Bitcoin is ripping while stocks and gold stall, and Michael Saylor just dropped billions into BTC. So… is this a real regime shift or just another 2022-style fake rally?Ryan and Mike break down the macro, why liquidity is quietly tightening, how Saylor’s new capital machine is changing market structure, and why this rally may not be as bullish as it looks.----📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCEhttps://bankless.cc/Galaxy ----🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBEhttps://thedefireport.io/friends https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/https://thedefireport.io/https://x.com/the_defi_reporthttps://x.com/JustDeauIt----TIMESTAMPS0:00 Intro1:36 Bitcoin's Performance Amid Geopolitical Conflict4:24 Global Liquidity and Its Implications8:40 Inflation and Federal Reserve Challenges12:38 Bitcoin Market Structure Analysis19:23 Michael Saylor's Strategic Purchases27:57 Exploring Hype and Market Trends35:33 Closing & Disclaimers----Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.