Geopolitical Cousins

Epizodes

• 
  This Is The Way The World Ends (w/ Zeihan & Gertken) 29.07.2026 1h 40min

  Sixteen years after last sharing a table together, four Stratfor alumni reunite for a wide-ranging conversation on the decade ahead. Jacob and Marko are joined by Peter Zeihan, and Matt Gertken to tackle three questions: How does the world end in the next 10 years? What core belief could each of us get wrong? And what's the least expected, most likely thing to happen next?The conversation ranges from deglobalization and collapsing oil supply chains to the demographic cliff facing the developed world, the odds of deflation versus inflation in the 2030s, and whether the global order ends up multipolar, bipolar, or unipolar. They also debate the odds of a US-China clash over Taiwan, and whether the nation-state can survive a coming showdown with the tech companies and billionaires who increasingly control critical infrastructure - including orbit.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome and Setup(02:05) - Reunion at the Table(03:11) - Episode Premise and Format(04:22) - Zeihan on Deglobalization(06:42) - Energy Shock Fallout(08:52) - Demographics and Demand Crash(11:03) - Deflation vs Inflation Debate(16:25) - Drone Warfare Dark Turn(18:21) - Semiconductors Reality Check(27:27) - Marco Goes Nuclear(30:10) - Russia Collapse Scenarios(33:18) - Nukes Spread and Ukraine Endgame(35:31) - Supply Chain Shockwaves(36:34) - Putin Hell Bar Joke(37:18) - Europe Expansion Debate(39:26) - EU Becomes Military Union(40:37) - Post Putin Chaos Risks(43:08) - Russian Elite Succession(44:27) - Civil War Nuclear Fear(47:34) - China Fills The Vacuum(52:26) - Taiwan Timeline Scenario(53:59) - Drones Nukes And Invasion(56:43) - Deterrence And Flashpoints(01:03:34) - China Demographics Clash(01:05:15) - Depopulation Not Disaster(01:06:14) - Black Plague Lessons(01:07:11) - Automation Versus Depopulation(01:07:22) - Japan China Depopulation Debate(01:09:31) - End of Nation State(01:11:18) - Shocks and State Capacity(01:12:04) - Broken World of More(01:13:07) - Knowledge Networks Collapse(01:14:31) - Affluence Feudalism Demand(01:16:51) - Brittle AI Chip Supply(01:21:39) - Ingenuity Gap Reversal(01:23:34) - Rapid Fire Predictions(01:35:47) - State Versus Tech Showdown(01:40:24) - Wrap and Break--Referenced in the Show:https://zeihan.com/--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.--
• 
  What We Got Wrong About The World Cup (A LOT) 24.07.2026 1h 22min

  The cousins reconvene with the BCA brain trust - Juan Correa, Robert Tipper, and Jeremie Peloso - for the World Cup post-mortem. The model called all four semifinalists but missed champion Spain, so the crew litigates whether the winner's curse is dead, whether the GOAT variable was a methodological capitulation, and what Cape Verde, Norway, and Egypt say about the value of a center of gravity. Also on the docket: Trump's Balogun red-card intervention, the treatment of Iran's squad, a Paraguayan senator's meltdown, and why immigration keeps winning on the pitch.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Show Updates/Intro(00:39) - World Cup Recap Setup(02:02) - Guests And Agenda(05:34) - How The Model Works(11:21) - Winners Curse Debate(15:39) - Messi GOAT Argument(21:10) - Spain And Substitutions(26:16) - Model Tweaks Next Time(30:57) - World Cup Negatives(39:34) - VAR And Tournament Fatigue(43:25) - Substitution Rules Debate(47:25) - Stadium Atmosphere Problems(49:53) - Anthems Halftime Politics(54:24) - What We Loved Most(57:19) - America Production Spectacle(01:01:12) - Drama Violence Ticket Culture(01:09:34) - Soccer Narratives Magic(01:12:23) - Geopolitics On The Pitch(01:17:49) - Immigration Nation State(01:21:31) - Wrap Up And Next Tournaments--Referenced in the Show:2026 BCA World Cup Forecast - https://www.bcaresearch.com/reports/most-important-all-unimportant-forecasts-3rd-edition-2026-world-cup-04-06-2026/219501?token=99a83421876851853383a4eb1118ddb9 --Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
• 
  Operation Fun Run 15.07.2026 55min

  Iran again. Yes, again :( nobody's thrilled, but that's the content. The cousins break down a week of tanker attacks, retaliations to retaliations, and a 20% toll that became "great investments" in 24 hours. Marko's pitch: stop forecasting oil prices and start using them - they're an input, not an output. Jacob pushes back on who actually wants what. Then Japan, where rising yields and a yen at 162 have the macro world whispering about the carry trade. Plus a super El Niño, and the World Cup - because apparently the whole planet is rooting for England now. Rare. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome and agenda(00:36) - Iran flare-up timeline(03:28) - Why Iran escalates(06:59) - Oil prices drive conflict(20:24) - China signals and forecasts(23:18) - War 2.0 and Hormuz limits(28:46) - Rangebound Oil Equilibrium(30:33) - Hormuz Alternatives Rising(32:50) - Spiral Risk And CPI(36:18) - Trump Thesis And Forecasts(41:21) - World Cup Ref Drama(47:03) - Japan Yields And Global Spillovers--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
• 
  A Little Belgium Cherub Gets to Pee in Trump's Pool 08.07.2026 1h 26min

  Iran, Hormuz, another tanker on fire - sure, fine, but the real question is: what's actually driving the behavior here, and it's not the diplomacy everyone keeps quoting. Marko and Jacob argue it out: chokepoint tolls, the memorandum nobody trusts, oil prices doing more work than anyone wants to admit. Then Europe, because apparently that's still a thing - NATO's arms-deal theater, Le Pen's conviction, a French case nobody's making. And yes, the World Cup gets its forty minutes. It's a good one. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome and Episode Preview(01:00) - World Cup vs World News(02:03) - Hormuz Tanker Attacks(03:07) - Oil Prices Drive Reality(30:52) - Phony Russia Sanctions(32:46) - Europe Rearms and Le Pen(37:36) - Ukraine Stalemate and Crimea(47:33) - World Cup Trump and FIFA(01:02:20) - Birthright Soccer Paradox(01:03:12) - Why World Cup Matters(01:08:15) - American Grit on Pitch(01:10:18) - Announcers and Fan Culture(01:12:28) - Norway and Haaland Mythos(01:13:36) - Trump FIFA and Nationalism(01:16:30) - Sports as Peaceful Outlet(01:23:30) - Predictions and Final Picks(01:26:07) - Closing Love for World Cup--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
• 
  16 Books That Shaped Us 06.07.2026 1h 30min

  It's the Book Episode!!! Marko and Jacob turn their usual geopolitical sparring into a book draft: eight titles each, no rules, no rankings, just the texts that actually built their analytical muscle <3 The cousin picks span philosophy, fiction, psychology, and history. Machiavelli's The Prince opens the list, followed by texts on Marxism, biography, social psychology, and intelligence tradecraft. Marko favors frameworks that discipline thinking; Jshap leans on fiction and history to capture how humans behave. Tune in to hear more :)--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome and Reading Habit(01:06) - Heat Talk and Air Conditioning(03:34) - Book Draft Setup(04:54) - Machiavelli The Prince(16:20) - Talmud and Contrarian Thinking(23:14) - Marx Das Kapital(43:33) - Analyst Biases Primer(46:15) - Framework Over Rolodex(50:03) - Weber Versus Marx(53:53) - Power And Human Nature(01:02:47) - Realism And Institutions(01:12:48) - Haunting Endings And Paradigms--Referenced in the Show:The Prince — Niccolò Machiavelli (Marko Papic)The Talmud — Jewish corpus of rabbinic commentary, no single author (Jacob Shapiro)Das Kapital (Capital) — Karl Marx (Marko Papic)All the King's Men — Robert Penn Warren (Jacob Shapiro)The Person and the Situation — Lee Ross & Richard Nisbett (Marko Papic)Psychology of Intelligence Analysis — Richards J. Heuer Jr. (Jacob Shapiro)The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism — Max Weber (Marko Papic)Master of the Senate (The Years of Lyndon Johnson series) — Robert Caro (Jacob Shapiro)Lord of the Flies — William Golding (Marko Papic)Politics Among Nations — Hans Morgenthau (Jacob Shapiro)The Tragedy of Great Power Politics — John Mearsheimer (Marko Papic)The Search for Modern China — Jonathan Spence (Jacob Shapiro)Why Nations Fail — Daron Acemoglu & James Robinson (Marko Papic)A Bend in the River — V.S. Naipaul (Jacob Shapiro)The End: Hitler's Germany, 1944–45 — Ian Kershaw (Marko Papic)The Structure of Scientific Revolutions — Thomas Kuhn (Jacob Shapiro)--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
• 
  The Esprit de Corps of Buc-ees 27.06.2026 1h 8min

  Drones aren't a technological revolution - they're a pain-tolerance equalizer, letting Ukraine strike refineries deep inside a country that never planned to defend them. Jacob and Marko trace the defender's-advantage pattern across 1948 Israel, Vietnam, and Nagorno-Karabakh, arguing offense rarely wins against a population fighting for its home. The long-term call: Ukraine emerges as the next South Korea, corruption and all, while Putin's 2022 claim that "there is no Ukraine" ages into one of history's great own-goals. There's a new Ukraine being born, and Putin is a founding father :)--Timestamps:(00:00) - Show Updates Teasers(00:28) - Shaggy Marco Check In(01:42) - Reflecting Pool Absurdity(04:14) - World Cup Surprise Hit(08:59) - Buc ees America Vibes(13:45) - Freedom Why Not(17:45) - Private Beach Reality Check(18:48) - Zelensky Propaganda Blitz(20:47) - Crimea Air Defense Strain(23:25) - Putin Weakness Pivot Talk(29:24) - Russian Economy Under Hood(34:03) - Drones War Revolution(35:00) - Defense Industry Oligopoly(36:11) - Putin Mobilization Tells All(40:15) - Drones and Pain Tolerance(45:52) - Counter Drone Arms Race(46:48) - 1948 Israel and Supply Lines(55:25) - Why Conquest Usually Fails(59:21) - Esprit de Corps Matters(01:02:50) - Azerbaijan Drone Blueprint(01:04:00) - Ukraine Economic Miracle Bet(01:07:28) - Putin Own Goal Finale--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
• 
  The Serfs Will Have Drones 22.06.2026 1h 36min

  Cousins hits the road for its first-ever in-person episode, recorded at Matt Gertken's home in Taos, New Mexico! Jacob, Marko, and Matt dig into the brewing standoff between Anthropic and the US government over export controls on its Mythos AI model, then zoom out to ask whether AI marks a civilizational rupture on par with industrialization itself - pitting the state, corporations, and "free-for-all" chaos against each other for control. They pivot to the Iran-Israel-US "hate triangle," the Strait of Hormuz, and what a fragile peace means for Gulf states and China. They close out with hot takes on the Knicks' title run and the World Cup.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome to Taos IRL(01:30) - House History and Taos Lore(02:25) - War Returns and Pivot Myth(03:15) - Anthropic vs US Crackdown(06:57) - AI as New Means of Production(10:44) - Kids Screens and Ideology(13:39) - Can States Control AI(16:35) - Dystopias State vs Corp(23:20) - Western Messiness vs Rule of Law(30:51) - Tech Barons and Backlash Politics(33:45) - Data Centers and Populist Response(35:37) - Bull Moose Antitrust Populism(37:10) - China Infrastructure Social Fabric(38:29) - Boom Bust Capex Cycles(41:23) - Universities Under Pressure(43:12) - How Campuses Handle AI(46:32) - Elitism Versus Access(50:19) - Iran Endgame Framework(51:27) - Hormuz Kinetic Equilibrium(56:34) - US Resolve And Deterrence(59:13) - Who Wins Middle East(01:07:54) - China As Stabilizer(01:09:59) - China Bonds And Stagnation(01:10:58) - No Rival No Resolve(01:12:40) - Oil Reserves And Populism(01:15:32) - China The Adult Debate(01:16:36) - Empire Model And Global South(01:21:11) -Will Power Corrupt China(01:23:36) - NBA Finals And Ticket Madness(01:27:09) - AI Makes Live Sports Pricier(01:29:53) - Basketball As Geopolitics(01:34:01) - World Cup Cohesion Forecast--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
• 
  The Most Important Of All Unimportant Forecasts 10.06.2026 1h 13min

  World Cup Time!!!!!!! Robert Tipper and Juan Correa are our guests. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Secret Forecast Origins(01:23) - Meet The Authors(03:02) - Juan Football Roots(07:41) - Marco World Cup Memories(10:07) - Robert Germany Stories(14:47) - Jacob 2014 Awakening(19:06) - Why Soccer Is Hard(21:50) - Inside The Model(28:28) - What Doesnt Predict(30:22) - Group Stage Surprises(31:40) - Home Edge And Curse(35:16) - Why Champions Collapse(36:08) - Argentina Winner Curse(37:37) - Group F Chaos Picks(39:36) - Bracket Quarterfinals(41:30) - Portugal Dark Horse(43:30) - France Wins It All(45:42) - France Identity Debate(47:11) - Football And Immigration(50:22) - Geopolitical Matches(56:27) - USA 2010 Donovan Goal(01:01:01) - Can Soccer Unite America(01:03:37) - Building US Infrastructure(01:09:30) - Closing Thoughts Farewell--Referenced in the Show:2026 BCA World Cup Forecast - https://www.bcaresearch.com/reports/most-important-all-unimportant-forecasts-3rd-edition-2026-world-cup-04-06-2026/219501?token=99a83421876851853383a4eb1118ddb9 --Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
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  The Second Derivative 01.06.2026 1h 33min

  The Strait of Hormuz is running out of runway - and so is the Trump administration's room to maneuver... The cousins unpack why oil inventories are the real ammunition in the Iran standoff, why markets keep hitting all-time highs despite closed shipping lanes, and what the AI economy's dominance says about the K-shaped world underneath. We close with NBA playoff predictions (duh) ahead of a Thunder-Spurs Game 7.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome (00:28) - Weekend Hoops and Aging(02:09) - Travel Grind and Vivid Dream(04:23) - Tales From the Road Idea(05:18) - Iran Deal or No Deal(08:47) - Strait Tolls and Mixed Signals(11:20) - Gas Prices and $250 Bill Bit(13:59) - Communist Relics and Inflation Fears(18:16) - Why Markets Hit Highs(19:21) - Politics Versus Material Reality(27:54) - AI Boom Meets K Economy(32:15) - Fading Geopolitical Risk(40:34) - Second Derivative Thinking(47:02) - Savings Rate Double Click(48:46) - Savings Rate Psychology(51:09) - YOLO Trading Era(53:57) - Savings Floor Risks(55:46) - Summer Oil Squeeze(56:57) - Sticky Inflation Drivers(58:30) - Politics And The Fed(01:00:15) - Markets And War Signals(01:02:13) - Reflexivity In Geopolitics(01:06:17) - Nihilism And Truth(01:07:17) - Quick Hits USMCA Update(01:12:12) - Moon Race Concerns(01:15:35) - AI Data Centers In Space(01:17:43) - World Cup Preview(01:20:09) - Why World Cup Is Hard(01:25:31) - Game Seven Predictions(01:28:43) - LeBron Comparison Debate(01:32:28) - Final Spurs Call--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
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  Forty Meters Under Fordow 27.05.2026 1h 32min

  Jacob and Marko dive straight into the Iran-US ceasefire negotiations (airstrikes are hitting Iranian ships and missile sites as I type) - dissecting domestic political constraints on both sides, the Strait of Hormuz's diminishing leverage window, and why the emerging deal is arguably a worse JCPOA. They pivot to Gen Z's eroding relationship with nationalism, Erdoğan's assault on Turkey's main opposition party, protests in Serbia AND OF COURSE close on the NBA playoffs.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome(01:03) - Cousins Reunite!!(01:58) - Iran Ceasefire Strikes Update(05:20) - Deal Dynamics And Domestic Politics(09:07) - Military Posture And Hormuz Leverage(31:52) - Israel Spoiler And Regional Fallout(34:08) - Ebola Outbreak Background(37:13) - Why Ebola Gets Ignored(38:21) - Deglobalization And Pandemic Risk(41:23) - Vaccines Versus Political Will(43:40) - Marco Responds And MAGA Critique(48:17) - Global Health Reality Check(49:07) - Ebola Lessons and Limits(51:06) - Why US Must Engage(55:22) - Serbia Trip and Protests(57:43) - Gen Z Standards Revolution(01:03:30) - No Plan After Protest(01:06:54) - Censorship and Shared Culture(01:08:39) - Metaverse Versus Nationhood(01:20:33) - Turkey Opposition Crackdown(01:23:59) - AOC Mailbag and AI Politics(01:25:23) - NBA Takes Meet Geopolitics(01:30:00) - Victor Wembanyama Era--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
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  TVI26: C***** Goes #1 22.05.2026 1h 16min

  Trade Value Index 2026 Part 3!Okay, okay... Here's the FULL list -> https://tinyurl.com/gctvi26 --Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome Back and Housekeeping(01:37) - Netanyahu Reconsidered(03:07) - Trump Iran War and Tariffs(05:37) - Ejecting Netanyahu TBD(06:09) - Cyprus Surprise Pick(08:37) - Finland NATO and Stubb(10:21) - Zelensky Case for Top Tier(20:34) - Pope Leo XIV Rising Influence(27:15) - Mitsotakis and Greece Comeback(32:53) - Modi and Sheinbaum Rankings(35:28) - Bukele Drops to Four(37:58) - Mark Carney Goes Number One(40:14) - Carney Goes Number One(40:50) - Steph Curry Comparison(41:46) - Bulking Up Canada(43:38) - Devils Advocate Pushback(45:21) - Trade Value Logic(46:54) - Full Rankings Recap(52:28) - Why Trump Missed Cut(57:41) - Biggest Movers Data(01:00:20) - Ideology Bias Breakdown(01:02:46) - Regional Bias Breakdown(01:05:32) - Starting Five Metaphors(01:06:46) - Xi and Jokic Deep Dive(01:13:34) - Wrap Up and Corrections--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
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  TVI26: Jinping Rising 22.05.2026 48min

  2026 Trade Values P2 :)--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome(00:42) - Part Two Setup(02:31) - Lula at Fifteen(05:17) - Macron Debate(09:57) - Noboa and Ecuador Crime(11:47) - Uzbekistan Rising(13:28) - Uzbek Reforms Deep Dive(17:28) - Japan New Prime Pick(21:46) - Denmark and Greenland Standoff(24:03) - List Mixup and Denmark(25:17) - Xi Jinping Rising(26:53) - Xi Strengths and Risks(31:28) - Javier Milei Debate(34:08) - Rapid Fire Picks(37:42) - Top 10 Countdown(38:01) - Guatemala and Singapore(39:25) - Meloni and Sheinbaum(44:11) - Modi in Top Five(47:59) - Wrap and Next Part--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
• 
  TVI26: Benchwarmers 22.05.2026 1h 42min

  The Trade Value Index is back!!!!!!! Part 1.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Housekeeping(00:47) - Why We Love Rankings(02:15) - Trade Value Rules Explained(06:59) - How We Score Leaders(08:29) - What Trade Value Means(11:03) - Last Year Rankings Recap(13:01) - Wins Misses and Dropoffs(19:43) - Starting the Countdown(20:00) - Jacob Cuts and Bottom Five(26:12) - Vietnam Surprise Pick(27:44) - Marco Honorable Mentions(30:58) - Dishonorable Mentions and Merz(32:34) - Merz Under Fire(33:41) - Hopeful Turnaround Talk(34:52) - Greenland Surprise Pick(36:23) - Nepal Gen Z Rookie(41:04) - Lula Back on Board(46:56) - Sri Lanka and Hungary Upside(49:44) - Meloni Slips Down(52:10) - Erdogan and Turkey’s Long Game(55:05) - Middle East and Africa Rankings(57:55) - Pakistan’s Geopolitical Comeback(01:00:53) - Syria’s New Strongman(01:02:35) - Sweden and Spain Reassessment(01:06:55) - Singapore’s Efficiency Model(01:08:58) - System Made Singapore(01:10:02) - Trade Value Debate(01:11:01) - Lee Jae Myung Profile(01:12:59) - Israel Tweet Controversy(01:16:55) - Prabowo Indonesia Wrap(01:19:49) - Iran Council Ranked(01:20:56) - Netanyahu Tradeoff Case(01:22:19) - Morocco Quiet Success(01:28:20) - Israel Umbilical Cord(01:37:34) - Gulf Royals Picks(01:40:34) - UAE Critique And Close--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
• 
  A Soybean faux-détente 15.05.2026 1h 28min

  Trump and Xi shook hands in Beijing, and yes, the soccer mom in all of us should appreciate that two nuclear superpowers are behaving like adults. But let's not kid ourselves :) soybeans and Boeing orders don't a détente make. JShap thinks Trump can't carry the baton; Marko says he's the only one who can land the plane he launched. Meanwhile, the CIA's running around Mexico, Cuba's running out of diesel, and AOC is sharpening her ideological fangs. After Dark, as advertised.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Show rundown and updates(00:45) - After Dark banter(01:47) - Trump meets Xi(02:47) - Why the summit matters(05:42) - Messaging and skepticism(08:04) - Military intelligence complex(09:46) - Tech split and hardware lobby(14:05) - Globalization lessons and leverage(20:29) - COVID and Nixon to China(25:00) - Who carries the baton(34:46) - China economics and engineering state(37:54) - Consumers inflation and pain tolerance(46:12) - Pentagon report dime framework(46:57) - DIME Framework Roast(47:53) - China and Hormuz Deal(52:11) - Chinese Shipping Boom(53:02) - Gulf Commodities Pivot(55:11) - US China Mixed Signals(59:12) - Mexico Relationship Flashpoints(01:01:23) - Cuba Protests and Indictments(01:03:27) - Do Mexicans Want Help(01:06:02) - CIA vs Delta Force Debate(01:12:47) - AOC Billionaire Clip(01:19:21) - Populism and Corruption(01:26:56) - California Race Wrap Up--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
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  China Just Doesn't Care 05.05.2026 1h 17min

  The lads turn an unscripted session into a sharp diagnosis of the US-China relationship amid the Strait of Hormuz crisis. They debate whether China is strategically patient or simply indifferent - and what its silence means for the Global South. The Xi-Trump summit looms as both the dealmaker's prize and the ultimate test of a G2 world.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introooo(01:20) - China Defies Iran Sanctions(03:33) - Oil Markets and Sanctions Backfire(07:52) - Summit Hype and Trade Deal Goals(10:05) - G2 vs Multipolar Debate(12:17) - Should China Pressure Iran(15:57) - Global South Stakes and Bagels(18:34) - China Strategic Patience Rebuttal(32:03) - What China Offers the World(34:40) - Yuan Push and Middle Kingdom(36:54 China Whiffing the Moment(38:50) - China Constraints First(39:34) - Disciplining Iran Debate(41:29) - Multipolarity Versus Bipolar(43:08) - Iran Strikes UAE Update(45:33) - Ceasefire And Escalation(49:12) - Oil Inventories Supply Hole(51:15) - Markets Ignore War Risk(53:15) - AI Capex Takes Over(56:09) - Energy Inequality And Supply Chains(58:37) - Trump Priorities And Timeline(01:02:08) - Rebuilding After US Backstop(01:05:42) - Pandemic Shifted China Views(01:09:47) - Propaganda And Cultural Hegemony(01:14:55) - NBA Riffs And Wrap--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
• 
  Cousins After Dark 30.04.2026 1h 17min

  Recorded late at night from New Orleans and Montreal, Jacob and Marko dig into the Iran-Hormuz standoff as oil prices climb and the ceasefire holds... for now. They debate who bears the blame, whether China's patience has limits, and what a US-China deal might mean for the strait. Plus: Canada's sovereign wealth fund and the Cousins Trade Value Index preview.--Timestamps:(00:00) - After Dark(00:44) - Jazz Hour Banter(03:01) - From Sports to Iran(03:36) - Oil Shock Signals(05:46) - Ceasefire and Storage(10:06) - Demand Destruction Debate(13:48) - Trump Narrative and Blame(18:04) - Cold War Framing(19:27) - China Pressure and Pakistan(33:11) - UAE Leaves OPEC(36:30) - Cartels and Oil Math(40:00) - Saudi Price Warfare(41:06) - OPEC Share Debate(41:53) - UAE Saudi Rift Risks(42:49) - Why OPEC Can Undercut(46:12) - Putin Polls Warning(48:56) - Russia Pivot Playbook(55:06) - KD Leadership Analogy(01:01:06) - Panama Canal Signaling(01:07:12) - Canada Wealth Fund Plan(01:15:00) - Wrap Up and Playoffs--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
• 
  The Supply Hole 24.04.2026 1h 30min

  Oil analyst Rory Johnston joins Jacob and Marko to break down why energy experts are alarmed by the Strait of Hormuz closure while markets remain at an all time high. Like wtf. Rory explains the 13 million barrel-per-day supply hole, the math on strategic reserves, and what timeline triggers a real price spike. The hosts probe whether Trump's leverage is shrinking faster than Iran's.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome(00:35) - Meet Rory Johnston(01:30) - Canada and 51st State Banter(04:12) - The Light on Fire Game(07:52) - Where to Follow Rory(09:09) - Why Hormuz Matters(10:31) - Reroutes and Pipeline Capacity(13:26) - Stocks SPR and Market Calm(19:18) - When Do Shortages Hit(27:59) - Red Sea and Houthi Risks(31:34) - Iran Leverage and Taco Paradox(35:25) - Hot Takes Round One America(40:49) - China Buyer Strike Debate(45:35) - Can We Just Build Pipelines(47:05) - Time Horizon Leverage(49:04) - Workarounds And Pipelines(50:53) - Regime Change Off Table(52:50) - Cash In Before Escalation(59:46) - Work From Home Oil Demand(01:02:46) - Russia And Cascade Risks(01:09:24) - Price Scenarios Brent(01:13:37) - Market Math Vs Jawboning(01:22:48) - Mutual Assured Energy(01:29:11) - Wrap Up And Thanks--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
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  Strategic Vibe Reserves 21.04.2026 1h 21min

  China isn't losing the energy war with America, it's not even flinching. Jacob and Marko break down why the "choke China's oil" thesis is economically illiterate, why the US and China actually want the same thing (cheap oil), and why Trump is more vulnerable to gasoline prices than Xi ever will be. Also: Billy Bob Thornton, hairy forearms, and bananas.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Housekeeping(01:00) - Weekend Sports Banter(01:53) - Iran Headlines to Real Stakes(03:31) - China Oil Imports Reality Check(05:16) - Fungible Oil and Discount Myth(11:02) - US Economy Needs Low Oil(18:17) - China Reserves and EV Strategy(22:46) - SPR Politics and Election Risk(25:57) - China Energy Stats and Seaborne Risk(31:26) - Trade Dependence and Supply Chains(34:06) - Five D Chess and US as Supplier(40:16) - Industrial Policy and Borg Metaphor(45:36) - Tariffs Versus Competition(47:41) - China EVs Copying Tesla(49:57) - Education And Immigration Edge(50:48) - Oil Sanctions Are Futile(52:23) - UAE Dollar Swap Line(54:52) - Japan China Tensions Rising(59:31) - DC Trip Policy Chaos(01:04:51) - Trump Court Politics(01:09:44) - Military Adults Missing(01:16:45) - Memes And Trade Value Tease(01:20:04) - Closing Banter And Wrap--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
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  Bombing for Peace 18.04.2026 1h 26min

  Marko and Jacob dig into the Iran ceasefire - is it real, or theater? Marko argues Trump's bombing campaign materially set back Iran's nuclear program, making even a JCPOA-style deal a net win. They also cover the erosion of the petrodollar system, bid farewell to Viktor Orbán, and debate whether TMZ opening a DC bureau is civilization's final chapter.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Show Notes and Shoutouts(00:56) - Hero Principal Story(02:07) - Bingo Card Banter(04:39) - Ceasefire and Strait Signals(07:27) - Iranian Infighting and Markets(12:30) - Nuclear Material Dilemma(15:09) - Deescalation and Market Complacency(22:28) - Is the Deal Superficial(28:31) - Will Iran Change Behavior(37:25) - Is Iran Really the Villain(41:45) - Iran vs Saudi Hypocrisy Debate(44:18) - Trump Is The Swamp(44:43) - Pump The Brakes On Iran(46:50) - Exit Middle East Vision(48:32) - Terrorism And Threat Math(50:23) - Opportunity Cost At Home(52:05) - Petrodollar Explained(55:51) - Inertia And Diversification(58:04) - Reputation Versus Savings(58:45) - Football Trade Metaphors(01:02:20) - Falcons Pain And Fandom(01:04:09) - Listener Coffee Shoutout(01:06:27) - Orban Era Ends(01:08:13) - Europe Rightward Shift(01:10:51) - Millennial Politics Rising(01:14:37) - TMZ Comes To DC(01:19:45) - Democracy Versus Elites(01:22:11) - Making Geopolitics Fun(01:25:39) - Sponsors And Signoff--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
• 
  Taco Tuesday 09.04.2026 1h 15min

  Marko is unbothered by ceasefire hand-wringing. He argues the Strait of Hormuz traffic was already recovering before any deal — because Iran is rationally cashing in through a tolling mechanism, not risking its leverage. Jacob frets the deal's fragile and spoilers lurk. Elsewhere: KMT's Beijing trip signals Taiwan's shifting mood, eight Senate seats are suddenly in play, Trump's economy approval is a catastrophic 31%, and both cousins have quietly become Claude fanboys.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Welcome (00:38) - Listener Requests and Ethiopia Pivot(02:13) - Coffee Gifts and Khat Banter(04:06) - Ceasefire Headlines and Strait Tensions(05:03) - Why Ceasefires Rarely Hold(07:43) - Shipping Data and Iran Toll Booth(14:14) - Oil Flow Math and Alternatives(16:12) - Gulf States and Toll Compliance(18:32) - Markets React and Leverage Limits(22:41) - CapEx vs Flotilla and Spoilers(28:10) - US vs Israel Strike Capacity(31:15) - China Stakes and Supply Chains(38:03) - Zooming Out What Changed Long Term(39:05) - Energy Transit Logic(40:26) - Ceasefire Skepticism(41:40) - Missiles Not Blockades(42:40) - Beirut Strikes Fallout(43:22) - Ignoring Trump Noise(44:49) - US Forces Reality Check(47:58) - Oil Price Probabilities(49:39) - Taiwan Opposition Goes China(56:50) - Germany Negative Power Prices(59:38) - Trump Cabinet Shakeups(01:01:29) - Midterms Map In Play(01:08:24) - Sports Jokes And AI Shift(01:11:56) - Claude Changes Workflow(01:14:54) - Sally And Signoff--Referenced in the Show:--Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com--Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapJacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe --Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papicMarko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro