Rational Dissent

Epizodes

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  Episode 008. One Commodity Cycle or Many? 11.09.2026 35min

  Commodities as an asset class are rarely homogenous. Today, prices are moving together, which either reflects a structural relationship or a set of unrelated drivers arriving at once.Rate Cut Cycle Returns Table: https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/podcast/2026/09/rate_cut_cycle_returns.pngChapters00:00 - Introduction & The Commodity Rally02:25 - How Commodity Total Return is Calculated06:02 - The Structural Case for "Easy Money"13:03 - Supply Disruption Drivers in Energy Markets16:46 - The "Sovereignty Premium" & Central Bank Gold Buying23:28 - Debating the Multi-Factor Reality Behind Commodities31:46 - Closing Question: How Should the Fed Respond to Structural Commodity Shocks?Learn more about Bianco Research: https://www.biancoresearch.com/Sign up for a free trial of Bianco Research here: https://www.biancoresearch.com/free-trial/?source=YT091126
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  Episode 007. Are Yields Good Enough To Compete? 04.09.2026 32min

  A yield is only as good as what you compare it to, right now, rates aren't promising enough for investors to want in.Chapters00:00 - Introduction01:46 - Determining the "Right" Level for Interest Rates05:46 - Price-Sensitive vs. Price-Insensitive Treasury Buyers12:00 - Comparing Treasuries to Alternatives16:43 - Term Premium and the Market's Demand for Higher Yields20:57 - The 4-5-6 Rule and Unrealistic Investor Expectations24:28 - Will Foreign Central Banks and Price-Insensitive Buyers Return?28:25 - Lightning Round: Will Bonds Win, or Will Everything Else Lose32:24 - Outro and Conclusion
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  Episode 006. Can the Treasury Bully the Bond Market? 28.08.2026 32min

  In a regime where financial conditions never tightened and liquidity never left, the Treasury could open its wallet the same week the Fed decides whether to hike. Is it a fool’s errand?Chapters00:00 - Introduction and Topic Overview02:23 - Defining Financial Conditions vs. Liquidity05:54 - Liquidity and the Fed's Balance Sheet08:26 - The Role of the Treasury General Account (TGA)12:48 - Market Liquidity and Inflation Fears21:51 - Term Premium and Market Risk24:41 - The "Liz Truss Moment" and Bond Vigilantes32:26 - OutroLearn more about Bianco Research: https://www.biancoresearch.com/Sign up for a free trial of Bianco Research here: https://www.biancoresearch.com/free-trial/?source=SPOT082826
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  Episode 005. Is Bessent Helping? 21.08.2026 31min

  The Treasury secretary is hoping to lower yields by increasing buybacks but the effectiveness of such tools has diminished in a high inflation era.Chapters00:00 - Teaser & Introduction01:09 - The Treasury's Rough Week03:13 - Opening the Toolbox: Fed vs. Treasury08:00 - The TBAC and the Optimal Issuance Mix11:39 - The Core Issue: Unchecked Inflation20:43 - Washington's Reluctance to Fix the Deficit29:12 - Closing Question: Warsh vs. BessentLearn more about Bianco Research: https://www.biancoresearch.com/Sign up for a free trial of Bianco Research here: https://www.biancoresearch.com/free-trial/?source=SPOT082126
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  Episode 004. The State of the Labor Market 14.08.2026 38min

  Shifting dynamics in the U.S. Labor Market have everyone from the Fed to recent graduates playing on their heels.Chapters00:00 - Introduction & Labor Market Equilibrium03:30 - Demographics, Immigration, and Breakeven Rates13:00 - Data Quality & Measuring Labor Market Speed Limits17:55 - Youth Unemployment, Demographics, and Degree Selection28:37 - AI's Real Impact on White-Collar Jobs & Education33:34 - How the Definition of Work is EvolvingLearn more about Bianco Research: https://www.biancoresearch.com/Sign up for a free trial of Bianco Research here: https://www.biancoresearch.com/free-trial/?source=YT081426
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  Episode 003. Valuations in An Earnings Explosion 07.08.2026 39min

  Is the juice worth the squeeze? Earnings keep rising, valuations are questionable, and investors are uncertain. What should you make of earnings these days?Chapters00:00 - Hot Open & Intro00:51 - Why Earnings Confuse03:54 - The Anthropic Effect07:10 - Include Other Income09:36 - OpenAI Next Wave12:32 - Valuations vs Earnings18:05 - Data Sources Diverge22:42 - Quant Models in Trouble26:05 - Vendor Financing History29:15 - CapEx & Bubble Risks37:10 - Lightning Round Fed or Earnings38:53 - Wrap Up & SubscribeLearn more about Bianco Research: https://www.biancoresearch.com/Sign up for a free trial of Bianco Research here: https://www.biancoresearch.com/free-trial/?source=YT080726
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  Episode 002. This Is Not Your Father's Fed 31.07.2026 34min

  Two meetings have passed under Warsh and the pattern emerging is more reserved communication, some family infighting, and an uncertain market.Chapters00:00 - The Fed Put & Market Expectation00:51 - Introduction & "Rational Dissent" Overview01:22 - FOMC Meeting Recap & Warsh's Agenda02:30 - Removing Forward Guidance: History & Impact06:18 - The Risks and Moral Hazard of Forward Guidance11:15 - Warsh's Vision: Independent Markets Check the Fed13:36 - The Unintended Consequences of the Fed Put15:38 - The "Good Family Fight": Dissents & Board Dynamics18:18 - Historical Perspective on Fed Dissents (Volcker to Present)25:34 - Reaction Function vs. Forward Guidance30:30 - Lightning Round: Biggest Risks of Warsh’s Approach33:41 - Closing Remarks & Wrap-UpCharts Used:https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/podcast/2026/07/WarshNewsHeader.pnghttps://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/podcast/2026/07/10YrCuts.pnghttps://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/podcast/2026/07/30yryield.pngLearn more about Bianco Research: https://www.biancoresearch.com/Sign up for a free trial of Bianco Research here: https://www.biancoresearch.com/free-trial/?source=YT073126
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  Episode 001. Why Do Investors Expect So Much? 24.07.2026 33min

  Investors have become accustomed to stocks returning double digits year after year. Is that the new normal? What should investors expect?Chapters00:00 - Introduction to Rational Dissent00:32 - Welcome & Market Returns Overview02:22 - CapEx vs. Cash Flow: The 3-in-1 Tech Supercycle06:43 - S&P Concentration: A Two-Asset Class Market09:16 - Valuation Breakdown: The Shiller CAPE Ratio11:38 - Explaining the 4-5-6 Market Model17:51 - Retail Sentiment, Bubble Behavior & Software Spending26:09 - TIPS & Long-Term Real Return Opportunities28:13 - Lightning Round: AI's Long-Run Sector Comparable32:42 - Closing RemarksCharts Used:https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/podcast/2026/07/AIvsNonAICorrelation072426.pnghttps://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/podcast/2026/07/CAPERatiovsReturns072426.pnghttps://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/podcast/2026/07/456Markets072426.pngLearn more about Bianco Research: https://www.biancoresearch.com/Sign up for a free trial of Bianco Research here: https://www.biancoresearch.com/free-trial/?source=YT072426
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  Rational Dissent Introduction 24.07.2026

  Hello everyone welcome to the Rational Dissent Podcast where we discuss everything from markets and the economy to the Fed and AI, and we stress test conventional wisdom and consensus views.