The Chuck ToddCast

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  Chuck’s Commentary - Trump’s “To The Victor Goes The Spoils” Diplomacy + Republicans Know How Bad The Midterms Will Be 24.09.2026 1ч 25мин

  Chuck Todd argues you don't need a poll to read the midterms — Republican behavior tells you everything. JD Vance is conceding things aren't going well, nobody's buying that it's Biden's economy anymore, and Tim Scott told the NRSC they're in "the fight for their lives," though his 2022 comparison misses that Democrats had Dobbs and Republicans have no equivalent in 2026. Todd's larger argument runs through Trump's UN speech, where the president justified seizing Venezuelan oil with "to the victor go the spoils" — a permission slip Todd says the rest of the world will happily accept. Between unilaterally inviting Putin to the G20, rolling out the red carpet for Xi, and a military stretched thin by Iran, America is now seen as an unreliable partner: one Trump presidency was an aberration, two changes the equation, and it'll take multiple presidents from both parties to win that trust back. Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football.  Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 06:15 You don't need a poll — Republican behavior tells the story 11:00 Tim Scott's "fight for our lives" and the missing Dobbs equivalent 17:45 The diesel export ban and Trump's scramble for an Iran deal 23:15 Where Democrats are short on money — and which races are slipping 29:00 "To the victor go the spoils": Trump's UN speech on Venezuela 32:45 A stretched military and allies who no longer trust us 38:30 Xi's red carpet, Putin at the G20, and unilateralism's costs 44:00 Dismantling the system that made America richer and safer  50:30 Ask Chuck 50:45 Any parallels from Nixon’s career that Harris could take in future run? 54:15 What are the five issues a Dem majority should tackle in 2027? 59:15 Why should fans believe this version of college football is sustainable? 1:05:15 Could congress turn AI concerns into meaningful legislation? 1:08:30 If Dems retake congress, can they force WH to change course? 1:13:15 College football previewSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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  Full Episode - Trump’s “To The Victor Goes The Spoils” Diplomacy + How Independents Can Break The Logjam In D.C. 24.09.2026 2ч 37мин

  Chuck Todd argues you don't need a poll to read the midterms — Republican behavior tells you everything. JD Vance is conceding things aren't going well, nobody's buying that it's Biden's economy anymore, and Tim Scott told the NRSC they're in "the fight for their lives," though his 2022 comparison misses that Democrats had Dobbs and Republicans have no equivalent in 2026. Todd's larger argument runs through Trump's UN speech, where the president justified seizing Venezuelan oil with "to the victor go the spoils" — a permission slip Todd says the rest of the world will happily accept. Between unilaterally inviting Putin to the G20, rolling out the red carpet for Xi, and a military stretched thin by Iran, America is now seen as an unreliable partner: one Trump presidency was an aberration, two changes the equation, and it'll take multiple presidents from both parties to win that trust back.  Then, Adam Brandon — who ran FreedomWorks for over a decade and now co-founded the Independent Leadership Council alongside Joe Manchin — joins the Chuck ToddCast to make the case that a handful of independents could break Washington's logjam. His argument: the parties have shrunk their tents, the blue dogs and moderate Republicans of the 1990s are gone, and in an era of slim majorities, ten independents in Congress could rewrite the rules when a new Congress is seated, install an apolitical speaker, and change every incentive overnight. He points to Montana — where the ILC-affiliated Independent PAC is now airing ads for Seth Bodnar, who needs roughly 210,000 votes to win — as proof the value of money in politics is starting to collapse. Plus: why Libertarians never break through, what younger voters actually want, and why burning the system down just leaves you living in ash. Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football.  Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 06:15 You don't need a poll — Republican behavior tells the story 11:00 Tim Scott's "fight for our lives" and the missing Dobbs equivalent 17:45 The diesel export ban and Trump's scramble for an Iran deal 23:15 Where Democrats are short on money — and which races are slipping 29:00 "To the victor go the spoils": Trump's UN speech on Venezuela 32:45 A stretched military and allies who no longer trust us 38:30 Xi's red carpet, Putin at the G20, and unilateralism's costs 44:00 Dismantling the system that made America richer and safer  53:00 Adam Brandon joins the Chuck ToddCast 54:00 Debt, deficits, and why independents lost faith in both parties 59:30 The vanishing middle: blue dogs, shrunken tents, and the 1990s 1:08:00 How ten independents could break the logjam in Congress 1:16:30 The collapsing value of money in politics — and the Montana test 1:23:00 Why Libertarians can't break through, and politics as entertainment 1:32:15 AI, job displacement, and where independents have the best shot 1:39:00 Rethinking the Partisan Voter Index and where to focus 1:43:45 What younger voters actually want from the system 1:50:15 The candidates ILC is backing — and why 2026 could change everything 1:56:00 Washington's warning, Lincoln's unity ticket, and a fragile democracy 2:02:00 Ask Chuck 2:02:15 Any parallels from Nixon’s career that Harris could take in future run? 2:05:45 What are the five issues a Dem majority should tackle in 2027? 2:10:45 Why should fans believe this version of college football is sustainable? 2:16:45 Could congress turn AI concerns into meaningful legislation? 2:20:00 If Dems retake congress, can they force WH to change course? 2:24:45 College football previewSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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  Interview Only w/ Adam Brandon - How Independents Can Break The Logjam In D.C. 24.09.2026 1ч 15мин

  Adam Brandon — who ran FreedomWorks for over a decade and now co-founded the Independent Leadership Council alongside Joe Manchin — joins the Chuck ToddCast to make the case that a handful of independents could break Washington's logjam. His argument: the parties have shrunk their tents, the blue dogs and moderate Republicans of the 1990s are gone, and in an era of slim majorities, ten independents in Congress could rewrite the rules when a new Congress is seated, install an apolitical speaker, and change every incentive overnight. He points to Montana — where the ILC-affiliated Independent PAC is now airing ads for Seth Bodnar, who needs roughly 210,000 votes to win — as proof the value of money in politics is starting to collapse. Plus: why Libertarians never break through, what younger voters actually want, and why burning the system down just leaves you living in ash.    Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 01:00 Debt, deficits, and why independents lost faith in both parties 06:30 The vanishing middle: blue dogs, shrunken tents, and the 1990s 15:00 How ten independents could break the logjam in Congress 23:30 The collapsing value of money in politics — and the Montana test 30:00 Why Libertarians can't break through, and politics as entertainment 39:15 AI, job displacement, and where independents have the best shot 46:00 Rethinking the Partisan Voter Index and where to focus 50:45 What younger voters actually want from the system 57:15 The candidates ILC is backing — and why 2026 could change everything 1:03:00 Washington's warning, Lincoln's unity ticket, and a fragile democracySee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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  Chuck’s Commentary - The Susan Collins Story Is An Indictment Of The System + Top 5 WORST Issues To Support 23.09.2026 1ч 22мин

  Chuck Todd digs into ProPublica's bombshell on Susan Collins, which details how her office steered millions in federal contracts to defense firm Navatek while her campaign operation pumped CEO Martin Kao's network for donations — sometimes cut within 24 hours of the defense spending bill clearing a Senate hurdle — and how the FBI's pay-to-play investigation died after Trump's purge of the bureau. Chuck’s argument is that the legality is precisely the point: Washington in 2026 is a legalized influence marketplace, Collins is no outlier, and what's needed is a post-Watergate-style transparency revolution — if money is speech, it shouldn't be allowed to hide.  Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of the worst issues a candidate can campaign on for the midterms and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.   Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 02:30 The ProPublica story and what it says about Susan Collins 07:00 The FBI investigation Trump's bureau shut down 08:15 The bigger story: how normal this kind of corruption has become 18:00 Crypto's $30 million play in Ohio and the threat of outside money 21:30 The transparency revolution we actually need 34:45 Iran waiting out the midterms, Mamdani, and Xi's visit 38:45 New Pew data on data centers — and where the money is going 44:30 AOC hints at 2028, and the GOP's Senate spending advantage 51:30 The Paramount settlement with California  58:00 ToddCast Top 5 most unpopular campaign issues 58:45 #5 A candidate endorsed by Donald Trump 59:00 #4 Wanting to abolish ICE 59:30 #3 Supporting weapons and funding for Israel 59:45 #2 Supporting the war in Iran 1:00:15 #1 Supporting for building data centers 1:02:00 Ask Chuck 1:02:15 What prevents a journalist from pivoting during a TV interview? 1:06:15 Advice for helping with kidney stones 1:07:30 What factors are behind Kansas suddenly becoming competitive? 1:14:15 If you could ask Trump one question, what would it be? 1:16:30 Could a future congress pursue financial penalties for pardoned officials? 1:19:00 Shout out to the NatsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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  Full Episode - The Susan Collins Story Is An Indictment Of The System + All The Wrong Moves That Led To Trump 23.09.2026 1ч 41мин

  Chuck Todd digs into ProPublica's bombshell on Susan Collins, which details how her office steered millions in federal contracts to defense firm Navatek while her campaign operation pumped CEO Martin Kao's network for donations — sometimes cut within 24 hours of the defense spending bill clearing a Senate hurdle — and how the FBI's pay-to-play investigation died after Trump's purge of the bureau. Chuck’s argument is that the legality is precisely the point: Washington in 2026 is a legalized influence marketplace, Collins is no outlier, and what's needed is a post-Watergate-style transparency revolution — if money is speech, it shouldn't be allowed to hide.  Then, Anthony Scaramucci returns to the Chuck ToddCast with All the Wrong Moves, out September 22nd, which argues Trump is a symptom rather than the disease — the product of three decades of bipartisan mistakes: Clinton's China trade deal, Bush waging war while cutting taxes, and Obama's bailout that rescued Wall Street while leaving ordinary families behind. He and Chuck also revisit the private credit questions raised in the ToddCast's Lakers special report, with Scaramucci arguing risky lending simply migrated from banks to private markets and that Mark Walter is likely not an outlier. His predictions are blunt: Trump is effectively conviction-proof, and in Scaramucci's view will try to make tens of billions before pardoning himself and his family — which is why, he warns, if the country doesn't take care of its people, the pitchforks will come out.  Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of the worst issues a candidate can campaign on for the midterms and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. You can order All The Wrong Moves here: https://www.amazon.com/dp/1250437563 Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 02:30 The ProPublica story and what it says about Susan Collins 07:00 The FBI investigation Trump's bureau shut down 08:15 The bigger story: how normal this kind of corruption has become 18:00 Crypto's $30 million play in Ohio and the threat of outside money 21:30 The transparency revolution we actually need 34:45 Iran waiting out the midterms, Mamdani, and Xi's visit 38:45 New Pew data on data centers — and where the money is going 44:30 AOC hints at 2028, and the GOP's Senate spending advantage 51:30 The Paramount settlement with California  59:45 "All the Wrong Moves" and the three decades that produced Trump 1:01:45 China, the wars, and a bailout that skipped the citizens 1:05:30 Is Mark Walter an outlier? Private credit and where the risk went 1:09:45 A looming financial crisis — and Trump facing a Democratic Congress 1:12:30 Conviction-proof: corruption, pardons, and the GOP's breaking point 1:14:30 No rule of law, desperate workers, and the pitchforks 1:16:00 How we made the wrong moves — and how he came back after January 6th 1:17:00 ToddCast Top 5 most unpopular campaign issues 1:17:45 #5 A candidate endorsed by Donald Trump 1:18:00 #4 Wanting to abolish ICE 1:18:30 #3 Supporting weapons and funding for Israel 1:18:45 #2 Supporting the war in Iran 1:19:15 #1 Supporting for building data centers 1:21:00 Ask Chuck 1:21:15 What prevents a journalist from pivoting during a TV interview? 1:25:15 Advice for helping with kidney stones 1:26:30 What factors are behind Kansas suddenly becoming competitive? 1:33:15 If you could ask Trump one question, what would it be? 1:35:30 Could a future congress pursue financial penalties for pardoned officials? 1:38:00 Shout out to the NatsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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  Interview Only w/ Anthony Scaramucci - All The Wrong Moves That Led To Trump 23.09.2026 19мин

  Anthony Scaramucci returns to the Chuck ToddCast with All the Wrong Moves, out September 22nd, which argues Trump is a symptom rather than the disease — the product of three decades of bipartisan mistakes: Clinton's China trade deal, Bush waging war while cutting taxes, and Obama's bailout that rescued Wall Street while leaving ordinary families behind. He and Chuck also revisit the private credit questions raised in the ToddCast's Lakers special report, with Scaramucci arguing risky lending simply migrated from banks to private markets and that Mark Walter is likely not an outlier. His predictions are blunt: Trump is effectively conviction-proof, and in Scaramucci's view will try to make tens of billions before pardoning himself and his family — which is why, he warns, if the country doesn't take care of its people, the pitchforks will come out. Timeline: 00:00 "All the Wrong Moves" and the three decades that produced Trump 02:00 China, the wars, and a bailout that skipped the citizens 05:45 Is Mark Walter an outlier? Private credit and where the risk went 10:00 A looming financial crisis — and Trump facing a Democratic Congress 12:45 Conviction-proof: corruption, pardons, and the GOP's breaking point 14:45 No rule of law, desperate workers, and the pitchforks 16:15 How we made the wrong moves — and how he came back after January 6thSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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  Super Tuesdays - Trump Lashes Out As Midterms Loom & He Loses Control 22.09.2026 1ч 16мин

  Six weeks out, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza open on Trump's ban of CNN, MS NOW and Politico from the White House — escalated Monday when the rest of the TV pool refused to cover him without CNN. Chuck, who fought the Obama White House's attempt to cut Fox out of a pool, explains why the real story is why now: a president lashing out as he loses control everywhere else. NBC has Trump at 41%, his second-term low; the Fed just raised rates for the first time since 2023; and the three most toxic positions in NBC's message testing are the three things Trump spent the last ten days amplifying. Chuck argues everyone is probably underestimating Democrats, then turns to the party's own problems: a DNC in debt, a brand that polls worse than the GOP's, and Axios reporting that most former Harris aides don't expect her to run in 2028. Plus JB Pritzker's 80-pound GLP-1 disclosure and Jayden Daniels' devastating elbow injury.    Timeline: 00:00 Trump bans CNN, MS NOW & Politico — and how the TV pool works 06:00 Why now? A president grabbing what he can control 16:00 Toxic message tests, Iowa defections & a party running from Trump 24:00 Are we underestimating Democrats? Wave, tsunami or mirage 34:00 The Democrats' money problem — the DNC, donors & turnout groups 40:00 Is Kamala Harris running? The Malibu tell and a cycle off 48:00 Pritzker's weight loss, the Democratic brand & the rise of independents 1:00:00 Jayden Daniels, injuries & the college sports bill 1:08:00 NFL chaos, NBA predictability & the case for relegationSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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  Chuck’s Commentary - We’ve Entered End-Stage Trump + Voters Are Aligning With Democratic Policies 21.09.2026 1ч 52мин

  Chuck Todd argues we've entered end-stage Trump — the most dangerous phase — as the president lashes out at a reality that keeps refusing to cooperate: raiding the Pentagon to fund his vanity arch, banning news outlets from the White House over coverage he dislikes. The new NBC poll gives him nothing to work with. Trump's approval sits at a second-term low of 41%, 55% say his policies have hurt the economy, and 43% say their congressional vote is meant to signal opposition to him — the highest such share NBC has recorded in three decades of pre-midterm polling. The war is a millstone (62% say it wasn't worth it), data centers are the worst-performing issue of the cycle, and the most popular positions in the survey are taxing billionaires and Medicare for All. Chuck’s read: the midterms are now entirely a referendum on Trump and the wave is showing up in Republican behavior as much as the polling. Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the story of Soviet soldier Stanislav Petrov correctly identifying a false alarm and preventing a potential nuclear war & the importance of human decision making in an automated system. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and recaps the week in college football. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 06:15 Vanity projects, Pentagon money, and a president lashing out 11:00 Banning the press and the danger of end-stage Trump 15:45 Inside the new NBC poll: a second-term low 18:45 Immigration, healthcare, and where the public actually is 24:00 The Iran war and data centers as the cycle's worst issues 29:30 The wave showing up in GOP behavior — and why Kansas may beat Iowa 35:00 Religious tests, the Hungary parallel, and the limits of the system 39:30 Codifying norms and repairing the damage  48:00 Chris Simms had excellent rant on the Protect College Sports Act 49:15 The conferences & networks don’t want a fair market for college sports 50:45 ToddCast Time Machine - September 26th, 1983 51:30 Soviet soldier, Petrov,  was trying to determine if the US had launched a nuke 55:15 Petrov concluded the warning was a false alarm, the machine was wrong 57:45 We were fortunate a human was involved in the chain of events 1:01:00 Spoke with Ashley Judd about AI on Noosphere 1:04:30 Humans can’t just be a rubber stamp in the machine’s chain 1:06:45 As we race into AI era, we need to make sure humans are still in the chain 1:07:30 Ask Chuck 1:07:45 Is there a method to John Fetterman’s madness, or is it just madness? 1:14:30 Why can’t Trump’s opponents also “flood the zone”? 1:18:30 Could the speaker refuse to swear in Democrats? 1:21:00 Would incorporating visuals in debate moderation be helpful for context? 1:22:45 Thoughts on Nate Silver joining Crooked Media? 1:31:30 Thoughts on the personal feud between Trump & Mark Carney? 1:35:00 College football recapSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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  Full Episode - We’ve Entered End-Stage Trump + What Should Democrats Do With The Majority? 21.09.2026 2ч 53мин

  Chuck Todd argues we've entered end-stage Trump — the most dangerous phase — as the president lashes out at a reality that keeps refusing to cooperate: raiding the Pentagon to fund his vanity arch, banning news outlets from the White House over coverage he dislikes. The new NBC poll gives him nothing to work with. Trump's approval sits at a second-term low of 41%, 55% say his policies have hurt the economy, and 43% say their congressional vote is meant to signal opposition to him — the highest such share NBC has recorded in three decades of pre-midterm polling. The war is a millstone (62% say it wasn't worth it), data centers are the worst-performing issue of the cycle, and the most popular positions in the survey are taxing billionaires and Medicare for All. Chuck’s read: the midterms are now entirely a referendum on Trump and the wave is showing up in Republican behavior as much as the polling. Then, Louisiana Congressman Troy Carter joins the Chuck ToddCast to talk about a state whose bipartisan political culture — he worked productively with Mike Johnson in the statehouse — has been steamrolled by a president who's made clear he doesn't want to work with Democrats at all. Carter notes the irony that a majority of Johnson's own district is Medicaid-dependent in a state that never expanded Medicaid, and that the One Big Beautiful Bill cut it anyway. He argues Democrats lose working-class voters by refusing to speak plain American, that Bill Cassidy would have been tough to beat had he run as an independent rather than losing his primary, and that impeachment without the votes is a fool's errand even as rampant corruption demands answers. Plus: why progressives struggle with Black voters, the flawed SCORE Act, Jeff Landry's LSU mess, and Carter's bill requiring watermarks on AI video. Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the story of Soviet soldier Stanislav Petrov correctly identifying a false alarm and preventing a potential nuclear war & the importance of human decision making in an automated system. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and recaps the week in college football. Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 06:15 Vanity projects, Pentagon money, and a president lashing out 11:00 Banning the press and the danger of end-stage Trump 15:45 Inside the new NBC poll: a second-term low 18:45 Immigration, healthcare, and where the public actually is 24:00 The Iran war and data centers as the cycle's worst issues 29:30 The wave showing up in GOP behavior — and why Kansas may beat Iowa 35:00 Religious tests, the Hungary parallel, and the limits of the system 39:30 Codifying norms and repairing the damage  51:00 Congressman Troy Carter joins the Chuck ToddCast 52:00 Louisiana's bipartisan culture and a president who won't play along 57:00 Medicaid, the OBBB cuts, and government that fails to deliver 1:03:45 How Trump wins working-class voters — and how Democrats lose them 1:09:00 The House map, surprise flips, and the Cassidy what-if 1:13:45 What Democrats should do with a governing majority 1:17:45 Oversight, impeachment, and the limits of both 1:26:15 Progressives, Black voters, and building a broader coalition 1:30:30 Procedural rules and Carter's reform wish list 1:36:45 College sports, the SCORE Act, and the LSU fight 1:45:00 AI, watermarks, and what Congress has to figure out 1:48:45 Chris Simms had excellent rant on the Protect College Sports Act 1:50:00 The conferences & networks don’t want a fair market for college sports 1:51:30 ToddCast Time Machine - September 26th, 1983 1:52:15 Soviet soldier, Petrov,  was trying to determine if the US had launched a nuke 1:56:00 Petrov concluded the warning was a false alarm, the machine was wrong 1:58:30 We were fortunate a human was involved in the chain of events 2:01:45 Spoke with Ashley Judd about AI on Noosphere 2:05:15 Humans can’t just be a rubber stamp in the machine’s chain 2:07:30 As we race into AI era, we need to make sure humans are still in the chain 2:08:15 Ask Chuck 2:08:30 Is there a method to John Fetterman’s madness, or is it just madness? 2:15:15 Why can’t Trump’s opponents also “flood the zone”? 2:19:15 Could the speaker refuse to swear in Democrats? 2:21:45 Would incorporating visuals in debate moderation be helpful for context? 2:23:30 Thoughts on Nate Silver joining Crooked Media? 2:32:15 Thoughts on the personal feud between Trump & Mark Carney? 2:35:45 College football recapSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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  Interview Only w/ Congressman Troy Carter - What Should Democrats Do With The Majority? 21.09.2026 1ч 2мин

  Louisiana Congressman Troy Carter joins the Chuck ToddCast to talk about a state whose bipartisan political culture — he worked productively with Mike Johnson in the statehouse — has been steamrolled by a president who's made clear he doesn't want to work with Democrats at all. Carter notes the irony that a majority of Johnson's own district is Medicaid-dependent in a state that never expanded Medicaid, and that the One Big Beautiful Bill cut it anyway. He argues Democrats lose working-class voters by refusing to speak plain American, that Bill Cassidy would have been tough to beat had he run as an independent rather than losing his primary, and that impeachment without the votes is a fool's errand even as rampant corruption demands answers. Plus: why progressives struggle with Black voters, the flawed SCORE Act, Jeff Landry's LSU mess, and Carter's bill requiring watermarks on AI video.   Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Congressman Troy Carter joins the Chuck ToddCast 01:00 Louisiana's bipartisan culture and a president who won't play along 06:00 Medicaid, the OBBB cuts, and government that fails to deliver 12:45 How Trump wins working-class voters — and how Democrats lose them 18:00 The House map, surprise flips, and the Cassidy what-if 22:45 What Democrats should do with a governing majority 26:45 Oversight, impeachment, and the limits of both 35:15 Progressives, Black voters, and building a broader coalition 39:30 Procedural rules and Carter's reform wish list 45:45 College sports, the SCORE Act, and the LSU fight 54:00 AI, watermarks, and what Congress has to figure out See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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  Chuck’s Commentary - Republicans Are Officially Out Of Ideas + How Industry Captures Government 17.09.2026 1ч 30мин

  Chuck Todd charts a Republican Party running out of road: the Fed hiking rates into Trump-driven inflation, JD Vance reduced to a "give us another chance" midterm pitch while Trump insists the economy is great, troops anonymously leaking photos of damaged bases, and seven Republicans now breaking with the president on War Powers. A closed-door House meeting over suspending the federal gas tax turned into what was described as one of the craziest on Capitol Hill — after which Speaker Johnson simply adjourned until after the midterms. Chuck closes with a sharp explainer on how an industry captures a government: crypto pioneered it by spending in primaries rather than on Congress, AI is now running the same operation with more money, and the CLARITY Act's collapse proves the one rule that governs it all — capture only works when it's invisible.  Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football. Sign up link: nextpredict.io/summits/the-worlds-prediction-markets-summit Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 07:00 Rate hikes, Vance's midterm pitch, and Trump's delusion 09:45 Damaged bases and the growing Iran war backlash 12:45 Republicans breaking ranks on War Powers 20:45 The gas tax meltdown that shut down the House 28:00 Trump's arch and a Congress that won't stop him 33:00 How an industry captures a government 39:00 The CLARITY Act, crypto's undoing, and AI's turn  49:00 Ask Chuck 49:15 Thoughts on Georgia Tech and Tennessee? 54:30 Thoughts on the Tennessee senate race? 1:02:45 Was avoiding a debate the right move for Mike Rogers? 1:08:45 How effective can Dems be investigating Trump with one or both chambers? 1:13:00 What can Dems realistically do with control of congress? 1:19:30 College football previewSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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  Full Episode - Republicans Are Officially Out Of Ideas + Has Texas Finally Turned Purple? 17.09.2026 2ч 36мин

  Chuck Todd charts a Republican Party running out of road: the Fed hiking rates into Trump-driven inflation, JD Vance reduced to a "give us another chance" midterm pitch while Trump insists the economy is great, troops anonymously leaking photos of damaged bases, and seven Republicans now breaking with the president on War Powers. A closed-door House meeting over suspending the federal gas tax turned into what was described as one of the craziest on Capitol Hill — after which Speaker Johnson simply adjourned until after the midterms. Chuck closes with a sharp explainer on how an industry captures a government: crypto pioneered it by spending in primaries rather than on Congress, AI is now running the same operation with more money, and the CLARITY Act's collapse proves the one rule that governs it all — capture only works when it's invisible.    Then, longtime Texas political reporter Abby Livingston joins the Chuck ToddCast to explain why Texas is finally behaving like a purple state — not because the electorate fundamentally changed, but because conditions did. She walks through the state's political geography, 12 years of accumulated Abbott grievances (the school takeover, the unpopular THC ban), and a Republican ticket voters increasingly find embarrassing. Evangelicals are souring on Ken Paxton's character, Talarico yard signs are everywhere while Paxton's are nowhere, and Livingston argues a Talarico win would be a Democratic beachhead — though the winning number is likely under 50%, with a real chance Texas emerges as a three-party state.  Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football. Sign up link: nextpredict.io/summits/the-worlds-prediction-markets-summit Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 07:00 Rate hikes, Vance's midterm pitch, and Trump's delusion 09:45 Damaged bases and the growing Iran war backlash 12:45 Republicans breaking ranks on War Powers 20:45 The gas tax meltdown that shut down the House 28:00 Trump's arch and a Congress that won't stop him 33:00 How an industry captures a government 39:00 The CLARITY Act, crypto's undoing, and AI's turn  52:30 Abby Livingston joins the Chuck ToddCast 54:00 Why Texas is finally turning purple 1:02:00 Abbott fatigue, school takeovers, and the THC ban 1:05:45 The Texas GOP's character problem 1:10:15 What a Talarico win would actually mean 1:14:30 Trump, Latino voters, and the shifting coalition 1:24:00 A three-party Texas and the GOP's civil war 1:30:15 The congressional map in a wave scenario 1:40:15 Camp Mystic, college sports politics, and the UT backlash 1:55:00 Ask Chuck 1:55:15 Thoughts on Georgia Tech and Tennessee? 2:00:30 Thoughts on the Tennessee senate race? 2:08:45 Was avoiding a debate the right move for Mike Rogers? 2:14:45 How effective can Dems be investigating Trump with one or both chambers? 2:19:00 What can Dems realistically do with control of congress? 2:25:30 College football previewSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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  Interview Only w/ Abby Livingston - Has Texas Finally Turned Purple? 17.09.2026 1ч 7мин

  Longtime Texas political reporter Abby Livingston joins the Chuck ToddCast to explain why Texas is finally behaving like a purple state — not because the electorate fundamentally changed, but because conditions did. She walks through the state's political geography, 12 years of accumulated Abbott grievances (the school takeover, the unpopular THC ban), and a Republican ticket voters increasingly find embarrassing. Evangelicals are souring on Ken Paxton's character, Talarico yard signs are everywhere while Paxton's are nowhere, and Livingston argues a Talarico win would be a Democratic beachhead — though the winning number is likely under 50%, with a real chance Texas emerges as a three-party state.  Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Why Texas is finally turning purple 08:00 Abbott fatigue, school takeovers, and the THC ban 11:45 The Texas GOP's character problem 16:15 What a Talarico win would actually mean 20:30 Trump, Latino voters, and the shifting coalition 30:00 A three-party Texas and the GOP's civil war 36:15 The congressional map in a wave scenario 46:15 Camp Mystic, college sports politics, and the UT backlash See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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  Chuck’s Commentary - New Polling Portends A Midterm Wipeout + Trump Is Focused On ALL The Wrong Things 16.09.2026 1ч 35мин

  Chuck Todd breaks down a NYT/Siena poll showing Democrats up 8 on the generic ballot and leading independents by 23 — numbers that would mean 25-30 House seats and 4-6 Senate seats, with Trump polling worse than he did before the 2018 wave. He argues the Justice Department, FBI, and Pentagon damage will take a generation to repair, that Thomas Massie's impeachment articles against Hegseth usefully drag the Iran war back to center stage, and that Republicans in swing areas should cut bait on Trump entirely. He's also furious about JD Vance attacking Kansas Senate candidate Adam Hamilton over how he practices his faith — religious bigotry, Todd argues, and proof Kansas is in play. Plus Trump's claim that the only AI guardrail needed is a "high IQ president," from a man who spent a decade destroying the very trust he's now demanding.  Finally, Chuck updates his ToddCast Top 5 list of 2028 Democratic candidates for president and answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 04:00 The politicization of DOJ and the damage to federal institutions 12:30 The Kennedy Center tantrum and Trump's messaging problem 15:45 Massie's impeachment articles put the Iran war front and center 22:00 Inside the NYT/Siena poll: +8 generic, +23 with independents 32:30 Why voters under 45 decide wave vs. tsunami 36:30 JD Vance's religious attack on Adam Hamilton 42:45 Trump's AI "high IQ president" guardrail — and why trust is the whole problem 52:45 What social media taught us that we ignored  1:04:30 Gavin Newsom says he won’t run if Kamala Harris does 1:07:30 Newsom is a savvy politician 1:09:15 Newsom will struggle to overcome California image 1:09:30 ToddCast Top 5 Democratic candidates for president in 2028 1:16:00 Ask Chuck 1:16:15 Could Democrats make solidly red states competitive in this environment? 1:18:30 Thoughts onJames Franklin’s first two outings at Virginia Tech? 1:24:30 Is there a way to make a political donation without ending up on email lists? 1:26:15 Should Dems pursue impeachment if they don’t have votes to convict? 1:29:45 Is it possible the Iran war served Russia’s interests & could it be intentional?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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  Full Episode - New Polling Portends A Midterm Wipeout + How To Navigate The Medicare Maze 16.09.2026 2ч 16мин

  Chuck Todd breaks down a NYT/Siena poll showing Democrats up 8 on the generic ballot and leading independents by 23 — numbers that would mean 25-30 House seats and 4-6 Senate seats, with Trump polling worse than he did before the 2018 wave. He argues the Justice Department, FBI, and Pentagon damage will take a generation to repair, that Thomas Massie's impeachment articles against Hegseth usefully drag the Iran war back to center stage, and that Republicans in swing areas should cut bait on Trump entirely. He's also furious about JD Vance attacking Kansas Senate candidate Adam Hamilton over how he practices his faith — religious bigotry, Todd argues, and proof Kansas is in play. Plus Trump's claim that the only AI guardrail needed is a "high IQ president," from a man who spent a decade destroying the very trust he's now demanding.  Disclosure: Chapter is an advertiser on The Chuck ToddCast. Then, Chapter co-founder and CEO Cobi Blumenfeld-Gantz joins the Chuck Toddcast to explain why Medicare enrollment is so punishing — he started the company after watching his own parents struggle, and notes even a Stanford health economics professor found it overwhelming. He walks through what people in their sixties should actually be doing to prepare, why Parts A and B only cover about 80% of costs, how Medicare Advantage works and where its incentives cut against patients, and why the federal government's antiquated technology can't solve this itself. He and Chuck also get into why insurers have no real incentive to keep anyone healthy, and why good produce costing more than a hamburger is the root of so much of it. Finally, Chuck updates his ToddCast Top 5 list of 2028 Democratic candidates for president and answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment. Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 04:00 The politicization of DOJ and the damage to federal institutions 12:30 The Kennedy Center tantrum and Trump's messaging problem 15:45 Massie's impeachment articles put the Iran war front and center 22:00 Inside the NYT/Siena poll: +8 generic, +23 with independents 32:30 Why voters under 45 decide wave vs. tsunami 36:30 JD Vance's religious attack on Adam Hamilton 42:45 Trump's AI "high IQ president" guardrail — and why trust is the whole problem 52:45 What social media taught us that we ignored  1:06:00 Cobi Blumenfeld-Gantz joins the Chuck Toddcast 1:07:00 Why Chapter exists and why Medicare is so hard to navigate 1:12:30 What Medicare actually covers — and what it doesn't 1:15:00 Medicare Advantage, denials, and misaligned incentives 1:17:45 Why the government can't build this itself 1:22:15 How Chapter works, and how it makes money 1:30:15 Bipartisan backing and the road ahead 1:39:15 Rebuilding American healthcare from scratch 1:46:00 Gavin Newsom says he won’t run if Kamala Harris does 1:49:00 Newsom is a savvy politician 1:50:45 Newsom will struggle to overcome California image 1:51:00 ToddCast Top 5 Democratic candidates for president in 2028 1:57:30 Ask Chuck 1:57:45 Could Democrats make solidly red states competitive in this environment? 2:00:00 Thoughts onJames Franklin’s first two outings at Virginia Tech? 2:06:00 Is there a way to make a political donation without ending up on email lists? 2:07:45 Should Dems pursue impeachment if they don’t have votes to convict? 2:11:15 Is it possible the Iran war served Russia’s interests & could it be intentional?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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  Interview Only w/ Cobi Blumenfeld-Gantz - How To Navigate The Medicare Maze 16.09.2026 42мин

  Disclosure: Chapter is an advertiser on The Chuck ToddCast. Chapter co-founder and CEO Cobi Blumenfeld-Gantz joins the Chuck Toddcast to explain why Medicare enrollment is so punishing — he started the company after watching his own parents struggle, and notes even a Stanford health economics professor found it overwhelming. He walks through what people in their sixties should actually be doing to prepare, why Parts A and B only cover about 80% of costs, how Medicare Advantage works and where its incentives cut against patients, and why the federal government's antiquated technology can't solve this itself. He and Chuck also get into why insurers have no real incentive to keep anyone healthy, and why good produce costing more than a hamburger is the root of so much of it. Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 01:00 Why Chapter exists and why Medicare is so hard to navigate 06:30 What Medicare actually covers — and what it doesn't 09:00 Medicare Advantage, denials, and misaligned incentives 11:45 Why the government can't build this itself 16:15 How Chapter works, and how it makes money 24:15 Bipartisan backing and the road ahead 33:15 Rebuilding American healthcare from scratch    For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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  Super Tuesdays - The Iran War Is This Election Cycle's IRAQ For Republicans… But WORSE 15.09.2026 1ч 13мин

  Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza open with a thesis worth marking on a calendar: the next two weeks may be the most consequential stretch of the campaign. Axios data shows Republicans outspending Democrats in every competitive state — $64 million in Texas, $45 million in Ohio — and Chuck's test is specific: if the ads work, Democratic numbers tick down and undecideds tick up by October 1st. His counterweight looks stronger by the day, with diesel at a record, Brent above $109, and the 10-year Treasury touching 5% for the first time since 2023. No amount of super PAC money outruns a gas pump, and he now believes the Iran war will hit these midterms the way Iraq hit 2006 — except as pure economic catastrophe with no upside. Plus: why Texas is an environment problem and not just a Paxton problem, a deep dive into Kansas and the reporting on Roger Marshall's medical-debt lawsuits, why Trump's $5,000 dividend pitch in Dallas was an accidental confession, JD Vance's rise as Rubio vanishes, a genuinely alarmed conversation about AI and the knowledge gap in Congress, and Ted Cruz getting drowned out on College GameDay.  Timeline: 00:00 The late-money avalanche & why these two weeks decide everything 10:00 $6 diesel, a bond market on fire & the Iran war as this cycle's Iraq 18:00 Texas, Florida & the rescue mission for Ken Paxton 24:00 Kansas: the debate, the medical-debt story & why Marshall is vulnerable 34:00 Forced pairs — who flips first across Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa and Alaska 40:00 The Dallas convention: Vance rising, Rubio missing, Trump promising checks 46:00 AI, the knowledge gap in Congress & a leadership vacuum 56:00 Ted Cruz gets booed, and the case against the college sports bill 66:00 Week one signal vs. noise, monkey picks & the top fiveSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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  Chuck’s Commentary - Maybe…Don’t Build The Doomsday Machine? + Can The GOP’s Cash Advantage Save Them? 14.09.2026 1ч 51мин

  Chuck Todd connects two crises with the same root: nobody in charge is willing to stop. AI CEOs now openly concede their technology could end humanity — Dario Amodei published an essay arguing development needs to slow down — while the companies pour money into the midterms lobbying to let Washington overrule state regulators, and OpenAI's own models escape a sandbox to hack Hugging Face and cheat on a test. From there Todd maps the GOP's financial advantage state by state, argues Trump's convention cash promises are an admission the working-class economy is a disaster, and warns the Iran war has become a full-blown kitchen table issue with millions of barrels of oil a day offline and diesel at an all-time high.  Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the 1920 Wall Street bombing, one of the deadliest terrorist attacks in American history, answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment and reacts to the weekend in college football. Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 06:15 The AI industry admits the danger and builds it anyway 17:30 Can Republican money mitigate a terrible climate? 27:45 Trump's convention, cash promises, and a working-class economy in freefall 32:00 Inflation, the Fed, and the Iran oil shock 39:00 Vance's 2028 advantage and the Trump albatross 42:30 Joe diGenova resigns, and the pile of discarded Trump allies 46:15 Why the Protect College Sports bill is fatally flawed  56:30 ToddCast Time Machine - September 16th, 1920 58:00 The Wall Street Bombing 1:03:15 A. Palmer Mitchell warns of anarchists 1:10:00 Over 30 are killed by the bomb and hundreds are injured 1:16:00 Attacks on lower Manhattan became a symbol for attacks on American power 1:20:30 Ask Chuck 1:20:45 Should politicians avoid using foul language? 1:24:00 If Dems capture both chambers, what could they realistically accomplish? 1:30:00 Rebuilding local public access media via streaming? 1:33:45 Thoughts on the culture of NFL ownership? 1:38:00 College football reaction Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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  Full Episode - Maybe…Don’t Build The Doomsday Machine? + How Campaigns Became An Industry & What Is Cost Us 14.09.2026 2ч 56мин

  Chuck Todd connects two crises with the same root: nobody in charge is willing to stop. AI CEOs now openly concede their technology could end humanity — Dario Amodei published an essay arguing development needs to slow down — while the companies pour money into the midterms lobbying to let Washington overrule state regulators, and OpenAI's own models escape a sandbox to hack Hugging Face and cheat on a test. From there Todd maps the GOP's financial advantage state by state, argues Trump's convention cash promises are an admission the working-class economy is a disaster, and warns the Iran war has become a full-blown kitchen table issue with millions of barrels of oil a day offline and diesel at an all-time high.  Then, veteran political strategist Maria Comella — who has worked for Chris Christie, Rudy Giuliani, and Democrats alike — joins the Chuck Toddcast to argue that political consulting has become an industry with no character test left in it. Using the Graham Platner saga as a case study, she and Todd examine what consultants owe voters when they know a candidate's flaws, why the staffer who went public took real guts, and why authenticity isn't a value but merely a descriptor. Comella maps the persuadable Republican electorate heading into 2026, argues Texas is the perfect storm for a statewide Democratic win, and explains why a non-MAGA Republican may be structurally unable to break through in 2028.  Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the 1920 Wall Street bombing, one of the deadliest terrorist attacks in American history, answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment and reacts to the weekend in college football.   Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 06:15 The AI industry admits the danger and builds it anyway 17:30 Can Republican money mitigate a terrible climate? 27:45 Trump's convention, cash promises, and a working-class economy in freefall 32:00 Inflation, the Fed, and the Iran oil shock 39:00 Vance's 2028 advantage and the Trump albatross 42:30 Joe diGenova resigns, and the pile of discarded Trump allies 46:15 Why the Protect College Sports bill is fatally flawed  58:00 Maria Comella joins the Chuck ToddCast 1:00:00 The Platner saga and the ethics of political consulting 1:08:00 Authenticity, character tests, and what voters will overlook 1:15:00 Going public, the Natalie Harp leaks, and protecting a candidate from himself 1:28:00 Persuadable Republicans and the 2026 battlegrounds 1:39:00 Outside money, data centers, and the AI problem 1:44:30 The 2028 GOP field and the fight for the party's future 1:53:45 Mamdani's first year, Cuomo, and the establishment's failures 2:01:15 ToddCast Time Machine - September 16th, 1920 2:02:45 The Wall Street Bombing 2:08:00 A. Palmer Mitchell warns of anarchists 2:14:45 Over 30 are killed by the bomb and hundreds are injured 2:20:45 Attacks on lower Manhattan became a symbol for attacks on American power 2:25:15 Ask Chuck 2:25:30 Should politicians avoid using foul language? 2:28:45 If Dems capture both chambers, what could they realistically accomplish? 2:34:45 Rebuilding local public access media via streaming? 2:38:30 Thoughts on the culture of NFL ownership? 2:42:45 College football reaction   Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.  Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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  Interview Only w/ Maria Comella - How Campaigns Became An Industry & What Is Cost Us 14.09.2026 1ч 8мин

  Veteran political strategist Maria Comella — who has worked for Chris Christie, Rudy Giuliani, and Democrats alike — joins the Chuck Toddcast to argue that political consulting has become an industry with no character test left in it. Using the Graham Platner saga as a case study, she and Todd examine what consultants owe voters when they know a candidate's flaws, why the staffer who went public took real guts, and why authenticity isn't a value but merely a descriptor. Comella maps the persuadable Republican electorate heading into 2026, argues Texas is the perfect storm for a statewide Democratic win, and explains why a non-MAGA Republican may be structurally unable to break through in 2028.    Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.    Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact  Timeline: 00:00 The Platner saga and the ethics of political consulting 10:00 Authenticity, character tests, and what voters will overlook 17:00 Going public, the Natalie Harp leaks, and protecting a candidate from himself 30:00 Persuadable Republicans and the 2026 battlegrounds 41:00 Outside money, data centers, and the AI problem 46:30 The 2028 GOP field and the fight for the party's future 55:45 Mamdani's first year, Cuomo, and the establishment's failuresSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.