The Coal Trader

Епизоди

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  Episode 22 - Met Coal Market Recovery and Thermal Coal Dynamics 03.08.2026 1ч 7мин

  Hosts: Matt Warder & Joe Aldina | Brought to you by the Clear Commodity NetworkAs the market transitions into the late summer shoulder season, hosts Matt Warder and Joe Aldina return to discuss the evolving dynamics of the coal and commodity markets. Matt shares updates after returning from vacation with a slight raspy voice, while Joe joins on his way to New Jersey. The discussion centers on the current macro themes affecting coal markets, including the delayed shoulder season, China's inventory levels, and how global geopolitical factors are impacting steel and power markets.The hosts dive deep into regional macroeconomic shifts, noting high stock piles in China and India, tight European gas markets, and rising power demand in Asia-Pacific countries. While thermal coal prices remain steady around the $120–$135 range, metallurgical coal has faced a short-term pullback. Matt and Joe explain why these market conditions present compelling long-term accumulation opportunities for equity investors, specifically highlighting under-valued equities across U.S. and international markets. Stocks Mentioned:U.S. Equities: AMR, ARLP, BTU, CEIX, HCC, HPK, NRP, METCInternational Equities: SMR, YAL, WHC, UNGConnect With Us:👉 Subscribe to the Newsletter: TheCoalTrader.com or on Substack at thecoaltrader.substack.com👉 Follow Matt on X: @MFWarder👉 More Commodity Market Commentary: clearcommodity.netDisclaimer: For information and discussion only - not investment advice. Do your own research.
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  Episode 21 - The Disconnect Between Robust Commodity Fundamentals and Equity Volatility 13.07.2026 54мин

  Hosts: Matt Warder and Joe Aldina | Brought to you by the Clear Commodity Network In this episode, hosts Matt Warder and Joe Aldina outline the current coal market cycles as we navigates an atypical second shoulder season, diving deep into the core overarching theme of the widening disconnect between strong physical market realities and lagging equity valuations. The discussion highlights major global macroeconomic and geographic shifts, including intense summer heat waves driving US power demand and European gas storage tracking the absolute bottom of its five-year average. They also discuss major trade flow adjustments to unexpected destinations like Egypt and Israel following operational disruptions. All tied back into the equities and which ones the guys like best. Stocks Mentioned:U.S. Equities: BTU, ARLP, NRP, AMRInternational Equities: WHC, YAL, NHCConnect With Us:👉 Subscribe to the Newsletter: TheCoalTrader.com or on Substack at thecoaltrader.substack.com👉 Follow Matt on X: @MFWarder👉 More Commodity Market Commentary: clearcommodity.netDisclaimer: For information and discussion only - not investment advice. Do your own research.
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  Episode 20 - Global Supply Realignment and Support Floors in Global Coal Markets 29.06.2026 50мин

  Hosts: Matt Warder, Joe Aldina | Brought to you by the Clear Commodity Network In this episode, hosts Matt Warder and Joe Aldina explore the complex seasonal shifting of the modern energy market landscape. The conversation addresses how recent volatility has begun to stabilize, providing deep fundamental insight into structural supply realities and pricing trends across global trade flows. The guys provide an intensive look into geographical macro shifts, tracking the return of production in China's Shanxi province, changing shipping dynamics through the Strait of Hormuz, and seasonal inventory adjustments in India. They also dissect the ongoing structural deficit in European natural gas markets and explain how these overarching trends create strategic accumulation points for global commodity equity investors looking to capitalize on a market bottom.Stocks mentioned: U.S. Equities: AMR, CEIX, HCC, METC, BTU, ARCHInternational Equities: YAL, WHCConnect With Us:👉 Subscribe to the Newsletter: TheCoalTrader.com or on Substack at thecoaltrader.substack.com👉 Follow Matt on X: @MFWarder👉 More Commodity Market Commentary: clearcommodity.netDisclaimer: For information and discussion only - not investment advice. Do your own research.
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  Episode 19 - Macro Meltdown or Commodity Boom? What’s Driving the Next Coal Cycle 12.06.2026 57мин

  Hosts: Matt Warder & Joe Aldina | Brought to you by the Clear Commodity NetworkAs we officially cross out of the shoulder season and look toward the upcoming demand season, the global coal complex is flashing massive green lights. Matt and Joe run the board on a wild month in the markets.The guys take a deep dive into the macroeconomic "feedback loop" of energy shortages, tackle the skyrocketing electricity demand from the U.S. data-center and AI boom, and break down exactly which equities are poised to generate massive free cash flow as the cycle hardens.Stocks Mentioned:U.S. Equities: BTU, ARLP, AMR, HCC, METC, HNRG, NRPInternational Equities: GLEN.L, WHC.AX, YAL.AX, SMR.AX, BHPConnect With Us:👉 Subscribe to the Newsletter: TheCoalTrader.com or on Substack at thecoaltrader.substack.com👉 Follow Matt on X: @MFWarder👉 More Commodity Market Commentary: clearcommodity.netDisclaimer: For information and discussion only - not investment advice. Do your own research.
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  Episode 18 - The Coal Trader Podcast: Global Supply Squeezes & The Structural Setup 25.05.2026 39мин

  Hosts: Matt Warder & Joe Aldina | Brought to you by: The Clear Commodity NetworkA massive news week across the global energy and coal complex. In this episode, Matt and Joe run the entire board: thermal coal is carving out a massive physical base, met coal is showing signs of structural support, and macro tailwinds are completely shifting the setup heading into the summer cooling peak The guys also dive deep into global energy dynamics, the massive freight rate moves, a broken domestic met coal pricing index, and a landmark regulatory shift out of China that changes the game for steel capacity.👉 Subscribe at TheCoalTrader.com or on Substack: thecoaltrader.substack.com 👉 Follow Matt on X: @MFWarder 👉 More commodity market commentary: clearcommodity.netStocks & Tickers Mentioned: AMR | ARLP | CRN.AX | WHC.AX | YAL.AX | SMR.AX Disclaimer: For information and discussion only—not investment advice. Do your own research.
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  Episode 17 - Market Inflation & Buying Opportunities: Earnings Recap 12.05.2026 39мин

   Hosts: Matt Warder & Joe Aldina | Brought to you by the Clear Commodity NetworkThe expected "shoulder season" lull has vanished as global energy security concerns and inflationary pressures push coal prices higher. Matt and Joe break down the massive moves in Richards Bay and Newcastle thermal pricing, the steady resilience of the Met coal curve, and why recent sell-offs in U.S. and Australian equities look like prime buying opportunities. Plus, a deep dive into Q1 earnings for CNR, BTU, AMR, and more.Stocks Mentioned: CNR, BTU, ARLP, AMR, HCC, METC, NRP, WHC.AX, YAL.AX, SMR.AX, NHC.AX, CRN.AX👉 Subscribe at TheCoalTrader.com or on Substack: thecoaltrader.substack.com 👉 Follow Matt on X: @MFWarder 👉 More commodity market commentary: clearcommodity.netDisclaimer: For information and discussion only—not investment advice. Do your own research.
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  Episode 16 - The Coal Trader: Buybacks vs. Benchmarks: Navigating the U.S. Coal Pricing Gap 28.04.2026 47мин

  Hosts: Matt Warder & Joe Aldina | Brought to you by the Clear Commodity NetworkAs energy markets stare down the "shoulder season," Matt and Joe break down the massive volatility coming out of the Strait of Hormuz and what it means for coal stocks. With prices pulling back across the board, the duo explains why this isn't a reversal of the bull thesis, but rather a "Great Accumulation" phase for those eyeing 2026–2027. From the potential for Australian miners to move underground to escape soaring diesel costs to the "option value" of rare earth discoveries at the Brook Mine, this episode provides a definitive playbook for navigating the current dip before the next major energy cycle begins.  definitive playbook for accumulating quality assets before the next major energy cycle begins. Stocks Mentioned: BTU, ARLP, AMR, HCC, METC, HNRG, WHC.AX, YAL.AX, SMR.AX, NRP, BHP, CRN.AX👉 Subscribe at TheCoalTrader.com or on Substack: thecoaltrader.substack.com 👉 Follow Matt on X: @MFWarder👉 More commodity market commentary: clearcommodity.netDisclaimer: For information and discussion only - not investment advice. Do your own research.
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  Episode 15 - Volatility, Ceasefires, and the Shoulder Season Setup 10.04.2026 51мин

  As energy markets stare down the "shoulder season," Matt and Joe break down the massive volatility coming out of the Strait of Hormuz and what it means for coal stocks. With prices pulling back across the board, the duo explains why this isn't a reversal of the bull thesis, but rather a "Great Accumulation" phase for those eyeing 2026–2027.Stocks Mentioned: BTU, ARLP, AMR, HCC, METC, GLEN.L, HNRG, WHC.AX, YAL.AX, NHC.AX, NRP, CEIX👉 Subscribe at TheCoalTrader.com or on Substack: thecoaltrader.substack.com 👉 Follow Matt on X: @MFWarder👉 More commodity market commentary: clearcommodity.netDisclaimer: For information and discussion only - not investment advice. Do your own research.
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  Episode 14: Hormuz, Gas Spikes & The "Ayatollah Toll" 01.04.2026 31мин

  Hosts: Matt Warder & Joe Aldina | Brought to you by the Clear Commodity NetworkA massive week for energy markets as geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz send shockwaves through the coal and gas sectors. Matt and Joe break down the sudden price spikes, the "Ayatollah Toll," and why thermal coal is riding the coattails of a tightening LNG market.Stocks mentioned: CEIX, ARLP, AMR, HCC, METC, GLEN.L, WHC.AX, YAL.AX, SMR.AX, NRP, CRN.AX, TER.AX👉 Subscribe at TheCoalTrader.com or on Substack: thecoaltrader.substack.com 👉 Follow Matt on X: @MFWarder👉 More commodity market commentary: clearcommodity.netDisclaimer: For information and discussion only - not investment advice. Do your own research.
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  Episode 13: The Hormuz Hedge - Geopolitics Jolt the Coal Markets 16.03.2026 42мин

  Hosts: Matt Warder & Joe Aldina | Brought to you by the Clear Commodity NetworkThe Strait of Hormuz is the story of the week. Geopolitical tension in the Middle East has sent gas and oil prices soaring, creating a massive knock-on effect for global coal markets. Matt and Joe break down the price spikes, the shift from LNG to coal in Asia, and the "frothy" state of coal equities.Stocks mentioned: AMR, HCC, YAL.AX, WHC.AX, BTU, C&R, TER, THL, SMR.AX👉 Subscribe at TheCoalTrader.com or on Substack: thecoaltrader.substack.com 👉 Follow Matt on X: @MFWarder👉 More commodity market commentary: clearcommodity.netDisclaimer: For information and discussion only - not investment advice. Do your own research.
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  Episode 12 - Coal Country Transmission: Market Troughs and M&A Rumors 02.03.2026 44мин

  Hosts: Matt Warder & Joe Aldina | Brought to you by the Clear Commodity NetworkIn this landmark episode, Matt Warder broadcasts "boots on the ground" from an active coal mine. The guys break down the current "shoulder season" market dynamics, dissect recent earnings from Yancoal and NRP, and discuss why the U.S. East Coast price index is currently "proposterous".Stocks mentioned: YAL.AX, NRP, METC, AMR, BTU, ARLP, HNRG, BHP, WHC.AX.👉 Subscribe at TheCoalTrader.com or on Substack: thecoaltrader.substack.com 👉 Follow Matt on X: @MFWarder👉 More commodity market commentary: clearcommodity.netDisclaimer: For information and discussion only - not investment advice. Do your own research.
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  Episode 11 - Shoulder Season Strategies: Met Coal Pullbacks and South African Surges 16.02.2026 50мин

  Hosts: Matt Warder & Joe Aldina | Brought to you by the Clear Commodity NetworkAs the market enters "shoulder season" (the period where weather-driven demand typically sags) Matt and Joe break down the divergence between thermal and met coal. While thermal markets in South Africa and Australia are seeing surprising strength, met coal is beginning to show "red on the screen" as Chinese New Year approaches. The duo also dives into recent earnings from Warrior Met Coal and Core Natural Resources, plus a look at the rare-earth potential hiding in the Powder River Basin.Stocks Mentioned: $BTU, $ARLP, $AMR, $HCC, $METC, $CNR, $NRP, $WHC.AX, $YAL.AX, $SMR.AX, $MTM.AX👉 Subscribe at TheCoalTrader.com or on Substack: thecoaltrader.substack.com 👉 Follow Matt on X: @MFWarder 👉 More commodity market commentary: clearcommodity.netDisclaimer: For information and discussion only - not investment advice. Do your own research.
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  Episode 10 - Freezing Grids & Firming Prices: Why Coal is Outperforming Gas in the Deep Freeze 03.02.2026 55мин

  Hosts: Matt Warder & Joe Aldina | Brought to you by the Clear Commodity NetworkMatt Warder and Joe Aldina dive into Episode 10 with a focus on the impact of "Winter Storm Fern" on global energy grids and the subsequent rally in coal pricing. While thermal coal remains reliable during the Northeast deep freeze, the real excitement lies in the met coal market, where Indian demand has pushed spot prices to $250 for the first time in over a year. The hosts break down the supply-side shifts, including Indonesia’s pledge to cut production and the ongoing skepticism surrounding Japan's nuclear restarts. Finally, the duo analyzes a volatile week for equities, discussing the "shellacking" in the critical materials space and why U.S. and Australian producers are bracing for a strategic shoulder-season pullback.Featured Equities Discussed: Peabody Energy ($BTU), Alliance Resource Partners ($ARLP), Core Natural Resources ($CNR), Alpha Metallurgical ($AMR), Warrior Met Coal ($HCC), Ramaco Resources ($METC), Natural Resource Partners ($NRP), Whitehaven Coal ($WHC.AX), Yancoal Australia ($YAL.AX), New Hope ($NHC.AX), Stanmore Resources ($SMR.AX), Coronado Global Resources ($CRN.AX)👉 Subscribe at TheCoalTrader.com or on Substack: thecoaltrader.substack.com 👉 Follow Matt on X: @MFWarder👉 More commodity market commentary: clearcommodity.net Disclaimer For information and discussion only - not investment advice. Do your own research.
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  Episode 9 - Met Coal Rips, Europe Gas Spikes, and Coal Stocks Catch Fire 18.01.2026 52мин

  Hosts: Matt Warder & Joe Aldina | Brought to you by the Clear Commodity NetworkMatt Warder and Joe Aldina kick off 2026 with a sharp rally in focus across coal markets. Thermal prices are firming modestly with Newcastle holding near ~$109 and API2 just under $100, while Europe’s gas shock - TTF spiking into the high-$30s/MWh - keeps coal economics relevant. The real story is met coal: Indian restocking into tight premium supply lifts spot prices to the low-$230s with the forward curve pointing higher, spilling strength into lower-quality products. Coal equities respond aggressively, driven by improving fundamentals, buyback narratives, and a powerful rotation into small caps and high short-interest names, with U.S. and Australian producers both posting strong year-to-date gains.Featured Equities Discussed - Peabody Energy ($BTU), Alliance Resource Partners ($ARLP), Core Natural Resources ($CNR), Alpha Metallurgical ($AMR), Warrior Met Coal ($HCC), Ramaco Resources ($METC), Natural Resource Partners ($NRP), Glencore ($GLEN.L), Whitehaven Coal ($WHC.AX), Yancoal Australia ($YAL.AX), New Hope ($NHC.AX), Stanmore Resources ($SMR.AX), Coronado Global Resources ($CRN.AX)👉 Subscribe at TheCoalTrader.com or on Substack: thecoaltrader.substack.com 👉 Follow Matt on X: @MFWarder👉 More commodity market commentary: clearcommodity.net Disclaimer For information and discussion only - not investment advice. Do your own research.
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  Episode 8 – Met Coal Takes the Lead: Prices Surge, Stocks Lag 21.12.2025 54мин

  Hosts: Matt Warder & Joe Aldina | Brought to you by the Clear Commodity NetworkIn Episode 8 of the Coal Trader Podcast, Matt Warder and Joe Aldina break down a bifurcated coal market as met coal strength contrasts with sideways thermal pricing. The hosts dive into futures, physical pricing, equity performance, and a deep slate of listener questions covering U.S. vs. Australian coal, cycle timing, buybacks, and long-term investment strategyFeatured Equities Discussed - Alpha Metallurgical ($AMR), Warrior Met Coal ($HCC), Peabody Energy ($BTU), Core Natural Resources ($CNR), Alliance Resource Partners ($ARLP), Ramaco Resources ($METC), Natural Resource Partners ($NRP), Whitehaven Coal ($WHC.AX), Yancoal Australia ($YAL.AX).👉 Subscribe at TheCoalTrader.com or on Substack: thecoaltrader.substack.com 👉 Follow Matt on X: @MFWarder👉 More commodity market commentary: clearcommodity.net Disclaimer For information and discussion only - not investment advice. Do your own research.
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  Episode 7 - Met Coal Pops, Gas Surges: Coal Stocks Wake Up 08.12.2025 24мин

  Hosts: Matt Warder & Joe Aldina | Brought to you by the Clear Commodity NetworkIn Episode 7 Matt and Joe break down the surprise “two-handle” in premium met coal, the forward curve holding a bullish $220–250/t range, and the sharp rebound in coal equities driven more by factor flows than commodity moves. They also cover tightening U.S. gas markets, rising coal burn, and why Henry Hub in the $5–7 range could put U.S. thermal names back in the money, before touching on LNG oversupply, Asian demand, and a potential reset in Russian exports next year.Featured equities discussed: Core Natural Resources ($CNR), Peabody Energy ($BTU), Alliance Resource Partners ($ARLP), Alpha Metallurgical ($AMR), Warrior Met Coal ($HCC), Ramaco ($METC), Whitehaven Coal ($WHC.AX), New Hope ($NHC.AX), Yancoal ($YAL.AX), Stanmore ($SMR.AX).👉 Subscribe at TheCoalTrader.com or on Substack: thecoaltrader.substack.com 👉 Follow Matt on X: @MFWarder👉 More commodity market commentary: clearcommodity.net Disclaimer For information and discussion only - not investment advice. Do your own research.
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  Episode 6 - Rare Earths Jolt Coal: What’s Really Driving Coal Stocks? 24.11.2025 25мин

  Hosts: Matt Warder & Joe Aldina | Brought to you by the Clear Commodity NetworkThermal tightens, met holds firm near $200, and Goldman’s zero-value call on Ramaco’s rare earths sends coal equities sliding into tax-loss season. Matt and Joe dig into China’s demand bump, why high-quality met isn’t actually in surplus, and how the emerging 2026–27 U.S. natural-gas bull case could quietly lift domestic coal. They also break down the week’s equity moves and where the pullback may be creating real opportunities.Featured equities discussed:Alpha Metallurgical Resources ($AMR), Warrior Met Coal ($HCC), Ramaco Resources ($METC), Peabody Energy ($BTU), Alliance Resource Partners ($ARLP), Hallador Energy ($HNRG), Natural Resource Partners ($NRP), Whitehaven Coal ($WHC.AX), Yancoal ($YAL.AX), New Hope ($NHC.AX), Stanmore Resources ($SMR.AX), Coronado Global ($CRN.AX)👉 Subscribe at TheCoalTrader.com or on Substack: thecoaltrader.substack.com 👉 Follow Matt on X: @MFWarder👉 More commodity market commentary: clearcommodity.net Disclaimer For information and discussion only - not investment advice. Do your own research.
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  Episode 5 - Thermal Rerate, Warrior’s Beat, and Coal Cycle Math 12.11.2025 35мин

  Hosts: Matt Warder & Joe Aldina | Brought to you by the Clear Commodity NetworkMatt and Joe sit down in person in to rip through a month’s worth of action: thermal coal’s rerate off sub-$90, a steadier met tape, Warrior’s standout quarter on Blue Creek volumes, why spreads inside the met stack are normalizing, and how to think about cycles, contracts, and capital returns. We wrap with a hefty listener Q&A on valuations, rare earth hype, PRB vs East basin setups, and whether coal’s longer cycles really give you an investing edge.Featured equities discussed: Core Natural Resources ($CNR), Peabody Energy ($BTU), Alliance Resource Partners ($ARLP), Alpha Metallurgical ($AMR), Warrior Met Coal ($HCC), Ramaco ($METC), Glencore ($GLEN.L), Whitehaven Coal ($WHX.AX)👉 Subscribe at TheCoalTrader.com or on Substack: thecoaltrader.substack.com 👉 Follow Matt on X: @MFWarder👉 More commodity market commentary: clearcommodity.net Disclaimer For information and discussion only - not investment advice. Do your own research.
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  Episode 4 - Rare Earths Jolt Coal: What’s Really Driving Coal Stocks? 12.10.2025 35мин

  Hosts: Matt Warder & Joe Aldina | Brought to you by the Clear Commodity NetworkA big news week in coal. Matt and Joe run the board: thermal is basing, met has bounced, and U.S. power/LNG tailwinds support the setup. They also field listener questions on Coronado and why China’s steel-capacity moves could be coal-price bullish.Thermal CoalEurope: API2 drifting in the mid-$90s; Newcastle steady near ~$100–110 during shoulder season.Asia: China/India imports firm; China output down M/M, burns up, stockpiles lower. Indonesian 4,200 kcal ~$40 → ~$43; China-destined 5,500 kcal ~$65 → ~$70.Met CoalPricing: Recovered off ~$160/t lows; recent prints high-$180s to ~$197/t.Supply: BHP to close the Saraji South pit (Queensland) amid royalty headwinds; chatter of additional Aussie curtailments. Base case: higher lows/highs into 2026–27 as quality supply tightens.Policy & Cost CurvesNew floors: Inflation + royalties push global cost curves up—levels that were prior peaks now look like today’s support.U.S. Power & GasDemand tailwinds: Data-center load and new LNG capacity point to firmer gas and improved coal dispatch versus recent summers.Equities & PositioningPlaybook: Watch M&A overhangs and prioritize buyback/clean-balance-sheet names. Trim strength tactically; accumulate quality on weakness.Listener Q&A HighlightsChina steel capacity: Cutting export-driven capacity can lift steel prices, tighten seaborne met coal, and redirect demand toward India.Stocks mentioned: BTU, ARLP, AMR, HCC, METC, GLEN.L, HNRG, WHC.AX, YAL.AX, SMR.AX, NRP, BHP👉 Subscribe at TheCoalTrader.com or on Substack: thecoaltrader.substack.com 👉 Follow Matt on X: @MFWarder👉 More commodity market commentary: clearcommodity.net Disclaimer For information and discussion only - not investment advice. Do your own research.
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  Episode 3 - Met Cuts, Thermal Signals & Royalty Shock 22.09.2025 24мин

  A big news week in coal. Matt and Joe run the board: thermal is basing, met has bounced, and U.S. power/LNG tailwinds support the setup. They also field listener questions on Coronado and why China’s steel-capacity moves could be coal-price bullish.Thermal CoalEurope: API2 drifting near the mid-$90s; Newcastle steady around the ~$100-110 range in shoulder season.Asia: China/India imports look strong; China output down M/M, burns up, stockpiles lower. Indonesian 4,200 kcal rose ~$40 → ~$43; CN-destined 5,500 kcal ~ ~$65 → ~$70.Met CoalPricing: Off the ~$160/t lows; recent prints high-$180s to ~$197/t.Supply: BHP to shut the Saraji South pit (Queensland) amid royalty headwinds; chatter of other Aussie curtailments. Base case: higher lows/highs into 2026–27 as quality supply tightens.Policy & Cost CurvesInflation + royalties have lifted global cost floors - what used to be peaks now looks like today’s support.U.S. Power & GasData-center load + new LNG capacity point to firmer gas and better coal dispatch vs prior summers.Equities & PositioningWatch for M&A overhangs and buyback/clean balance sheet names. Trim strength tactically; accumulate quality on weakness.Listener Q&A HighlightsCoronado (CRN.AX): U.S. assets solid, but Australia remains royalty/price sensitive; path forward hinges on cost work and price relief.China steel capacity: Cutting export-driven capacity can lift steel prices, tighten seaborne met coal, and redirect demand to India.Stocks mentioned: BTU, ARLP, AMR, HCC, METC, GLEN.L, CNR, HNRG, WHC.AX, YAL.AX, SMR.AX, NRP, BHP👉 Subscribe at TheCoalTrader.com or on Substack: thecoaltrader.substack.com 👉 Follow Matt on X: @MFWarder 👉 More commodity market commentary: clearcommodity.net Disclaimer For information and discussion only - not investment advice. Do your own research.