Caucus

Епизоди

• 
  How's this election different? Disgruntlement, Opportunity, & First-termitis 01.10.2026 50мин

  The campaigns are launching and it's time to lock into politics New Zealand. Caucus returns to set the scene for Election 2026, discussing why incumbency sucks, strategic voting is controversial, and the minor parties are major players.Election 2026By Tim WatkinPolls leading into the campaign proper, which kicked off this week with Parliament rising and the two major parties holding their campaign launches, have been filled with headlines about “kingmakers”. Initially, New Zealand First was given the title, as it has been so many times before. But more recently polls have showed the new kid, Opportunity, holding the balance of power.But if we take the parties at face value, “kingmaker” is a word that no longer makes sense in 2026. The fluidity of previous election campaigns, when parties would often refuse to say who they might work with until the people had spoken, has been replaced with coalition calcification.New Zealand First has ruled out a coalition with Labour and Labour has ruled out a coalition with New Zealand First. And they’ve done it with vehemence. Winston Peters has posted his party “won’t do a deal with Labour” because “the left are full of woke self-confessed communists”, while Chris Hipkins has said Labour won’t work with New Zealand First because of its “overt racism”. Clearly, there’s no way back into government for Peters and co without National. The question is whether that changes the way they campaign.As for Opportunity, they are pitching themselves as “kingmakers” and say they’re happy to work with National or Labour. They’ll talk to the biggest party first, if they make it into parliament after November 7. But the current ‘king’ – Prime Minister Christopher Luxon – isn’t having a bar of it. In July he called them a party with an extreme tax policy. “We don’t want to work with them… they’re as centrist as I am an All Black”. And in case that left any doubt, he has said since “A vote for the Opportunity Party is a vote to put Chris Hipkins, Te Pati Māori, and the Greens into government… we were right to rule them out”.So, at face value, we don’t have any kingmakers in 2026. The lines have been drawn. Everyone has chosen a side. For the first time under MMP we have two blocs – the current coalition or some combination of Labour, the Greens, Opportunity, and Te Pati Māori. Is this then the most transparent election in MMP history in terms of knowing the shape of the next government?Except… In the Caucus podcast, which began its run through the 2026 election campaign today, RNZ Political Editor Jo Moir says Luxon’s line is “just nonsense”…Go to this episode on rnz.co.nz for more details
• 
  The four Cs that cost Labour and how National nicked Auckland 20.10.2023 46мин

  A mood for change swept National & friends into power, so this season's final Caucus breaks down the numbers, unpacks the swing in Auckland, & looks at the coalition niceties. And the team opens their envelopes to check their predictions.Election 2023By Tim WatkinWatch the video version of the episode hereAnalysis - Election 2023 is done but certainly not dusted. Our 54th parliament has been chosen and National will lead a coalition government into the new term. But what has the result told us about the state of New Zealand's politics and the strengths and weaknesses of our political parties? The Caucus team meets for one last time for this election to make sense of last weekend's results. What really happened in Auckland as it swung blue? Why is Labour on the verge of losing some bastion seats? And just who is Dan Rosewarne anyway? Julian Wilcox, Tim Watkin, Guyon Espiner and Lisa Owen talk through the big trends of the 2023 elections and what they teach us. They discuss the impact of Covid and where Labour went wrong. How much responsibility lies at Jacinda Ardern's feet and can Chris Hipkins survive this shellacking? They also look at National's rise and how it pales in comparison to Labour's fall. How will Christopher Luxon the Chief Executive handle the move to Christopher Luxon, Prime Minister and where does New Zealand First fit in?Go to this episode on rnz.co.nz for more details
• 
  Long pants, Lazarus Peters, missing bits, & winners & losers 12.10.2023 55мин

  Wrapping up Election 2023, there's still plenty to play for ahead of election day. We review the highs and lows of Election 2023, unpack National's 'Winston Strategy', consider the missed opportunities and pick the seats to watch.By Tim WatkinWatch the video version of the episode here Analysis - What was National thinking? In Caucus this week, Guyon Espiner, Tim Watkin, Julian Wilcox and Lisa Owen look at National's decision to warn voters of a second election, saying the quiet things out loud and its overall 'Winston strategy'. Why didn't they make a call sooner to wall off New Zealand First and what price changing its position so late in the game? Or will the 'quiet Tory' effect take over in the booth?Which seats are the ones to watch, especially as polls suggest Labour faces a tidal shift from the 2020 'red wave' that have put as many as half their electorate MPs at risk? Which MPs could be saying haere ra? And can the left bloc claw back ground in the final hours?In this bumper final episode before the election, we also suggest issues that were under-played this campaign or missing altogether. Why weren't we talking about immigration and infrastructure with record net arrivals of 96,000 in the past year? When will New Zealand have a full-on climate election? What about superannuation and how the centre-right parties line up? And where was the grown-up conversation on co-governance and our democracy? The team looks back over the campaign - the best and worst lines, the stand-out policies and performers and the winners and losers of Election 2023... so far.Go to this episode on rnz.co.nz for more details
• 
  National and Labour's broken bungy and why we all need to grow up 05.10.2023 43мин

  Grumpy voters, crimes against candidates, desperate parties, unsophisticated MMP strategies and the return of John Key. As the campaign peaks, so does the tension.By Tim WatkinWatch the video version of the episode hereIn Caucus this week, Julian Wilcox, Lisa Owen, Guyon Espiner and Tim Watkin look at the angry mood of the campaign. Candidates are suffering unacceptable threats from the public. So why are people so fractious? What impact are Covid, co-governance and the cost of living having on voters or are we being influenced by global trends? Parties and their proxies are also starting to lose their cool - name-calling, making up claims, turning mountains into molehills and trying some desperate pleas.National has turned to John Key to try to persuade voters of the risks of New Zealand First, but the Caucus crew ask which voters they think he can swing. The Opportunities Party's Raf Manji has suggested a deal with National in Ilam. National quickly rejected it, but did National miss a trick months ago when it put all its eggs in the National/ACT basket?We look back at 2020 and 2017 to gauge New Zealander's history with split-voting and how that might influence this election. And we ask whether we should be worried about threats to the independence of media, the judiciary and Pharmac.Go to this episode on rnz.co.nz for more details
• 
  What do you do with a problem like Winston? 28.09.2023 43мин

  National's decision to form a government with New Zealand First as "as a last resort" is both a plea and a warning. What might a "cocktail" with ACT and NZF taste like? Could Luxon hold it together? And is NZF a racist party?By Tim WatkinWatch the video version of the episode hereThis week's Caucus looks at Christopher Luxon's landmark call to open the door to forming a government with New Zealand First and ACT. Predecessors John Key and Simon Bridges had ruled out governing with Winston Peters, saying they didn't trust him.Former Prime Minister and coalition partner Jenny Shipley said working with Peters could be "a trainwreck". Yet Luxon has chosen another path, based on the "principle" that New Zealand needs a change of government above all else.Lisa Owen, Guyon Espiner, Julian Wilcox and Tim Watkin discuss the enigma that is Winston Peters, National's options in negotiations, New Zealand First's policies, and what's different this time with New Zealand First. Plus, they examine the week of debates - the Young Leaders, Kaupapa Maori, and Newshub Leaders events.  Go to this episode on rnz.co.nz for more details
• 
  The electorate swing, Labour limbo and Luxon-Hipkins two-step 21.09.2023 45мин

  Chris Hipkins needs a new song and dance routine and fast, or he could be doing the limbo and losing the next generation of Labour's leaders.By Tim WatkinWatch the video version of the episode hereAnalysis - Another poll, another 27 for Labour. It was July the last time one of the reputable TV company polls had Labour's poll percentage starting with a three, so the limbo question is now being asked: how low can you go?It seems such an unlikely question because this doesn't feel like the kind of election that delivers a 27 percent major party. Usually parties crumble because of internal dissent, a tanking economy or radical reform.Labour has been cautious in its reforms; many of its supporters say too cautious. The economy's sub-par, but take away the partisan politics and it's pretty clear that's the result of war in Europe, global inflation, China's woes and paying off the costs of a pandemic either major party in government would have accrued. (Before you argue, look at how a National government responded to the global financial crisis and Christchurch earthquakes). Inflation is falling, we were never in a recession, the credit agencies are giving us AAAs, and unemployment has stayed low. What's more, Labour has united behind Chris Hipkins and backed him to run this campaign as he wants. There's none of the back-biting and dysfunction of the Shearer/Cunliffe/Little years.Yet as we discuss on this week's Caucus podcast, voters this far into the campaign are proving unwilling to take another look at Labour. They've done their Covid time; seen the failings of KiwiBuild, light rail and the rest; tsked at Cabinet ministers behaving badly; wept at the price of kumara and so far been unwilling to reconsider this government.The right bloc of National and ACT is holding around 47-49 percent. It's tight when it comes to whether they will need New Zealand First to have a majority - a nightmare scenario for any major party trying to govern with less than 40 percent support, as Guyon Espiner says - but it mirrors the results John Key and various ACT leaders delivered through three elections. Things are looking good for the right.What's perhaps yet under-appreciated is the disaster a 27 percent result would be for Labour and its future. If we assume Labour will hold 30 seats (the assumption being it loses it red wave wins of 2020 and maybe one or two more), then 27 percent and New Zealand First in Parliament would give Labour just four list MPs. …Go to this episode on rnz.co.nz for more details
• 
  National, ACT & NZ First: Delivering the sun or just beach cricket? 14.09.2023 42мин

  Multiple polls point to a change of government. Is National passing the sniff test? Do voters really want ACT's 'real change' or a handbrake? We ask what a centre-right government might look like.By Tim WatkinWatch the video version of the episode hereAnalysis - David Seymour is usually more a talker than a fighter, an ideas man; but he's been flexing his political muscles during this election campaign. Running as high 13 percent in major media polls this year (and even 18 percent in one Roy Morgan), ACT has been threatening to become the most successful minor party ever under MMP. (New Zealand First got 13.3 percent in 1996, in the first MMP election). But with two polls showing ACT slipping to 10 percent, has the mouse roared too much and is Seymour misreading the mood for change?In this week's Caucus podcast, we look at what the polls are suggesting a change of government may look like. Labour and the Greens are painting the picture of a National-ACT coalition as the most free-market, right-wing government New Zealand has ever seen. If New Zealand First is needed, they predict chaos. And as Guyon Espiner says in the podcast, Luxon's inexperience alongside Peters' and Seymour's belligerence could mean we are back at the polls in no time if the votes require that three-way coalition arrangement. At this stage, voters don't seem to be concerned. National leader Christopher Luxon has caught up with Labour's Chris Hipkins in the preferred prime minister stakes as National has reached 39 or 40 percent in this week's polls. that suggests that, while New Zealanders may not be taking Luxon to their collective breast, he's passed a certain sniff test. He's not the liability Labour was hoping he'd be. Sure, he repeats lines like a parrot and his tax plan doesn't add up, but he's good enough. And he's working hard not to appear mean and scary. Just this week Luxon said, "I consider myself very much a centrist and I'm very much a pragmatist." So voters don't seem to be afraid of a hard swing to the right as in 1984 or 1990. And most of all, he's not the incumbent government. Just as the British public voted out Winston Churchill within weeks of VE Day at the end of the Second World War and chose a new government to 'win the peace', so the New Zealand public seem to want to wash their hands of the pandemic government. So long and thanks for all the vax.That puts the pressure on National to, as Lisa Own puts it, deliver the sunlight. Voters are wanting better times and any new government will be on the clock to deliver, which could be hard in this global economic (and literal) climate…Go to this episode on rnz.co.nz for more details
• 
  A campaign of fear and loathing? Nah, the facts matter more 07.09.2023 42мин

  Should we be worried about the election campaign going negative? Or is the greater worry party leaders who can't get their facts straight?By Tim WatkinWatch the video version of the episode hereAnalysis - It's been all about the fear and loathing in campaign land this week, with every party accusing another of negativity, lies and the inability to run even the Venezuelan economy.The oft-forgotten subtitle of Hunter S Thompson's famous book, Fear and Loathing in Law Vegas, is "a savage journey to the heart of the American dream", and if you were to believe National's campaign chair Chris Bishop this week, New Zealand had embarked on its own savage journey into democratic chaos."The most negative election campaign in New Zealand history," he declared on day three of the official campaign period, after a Council of Trade Union (CTU) ad that claimed National's Christopher Luxon was "out of touch" and "too much risk".The Caucus team calls hyperbole on that in this week's podcast. Most campaigns - if not all - go negative at times, and others have been more negative. Lisa Owen points to the 'Dirty Politics' campaign of 2014, Guyon Espiner and Julian Wilcox plump for 2005 when Helen Clark and Don Brash had a clear dislike of each other, while I throw back to 1975 and National's famous 'dancing Cossacks' ad, claiming that Labour's national superannuation scheme was the start on a slippery slope to communism. Espiner and Wilcox did warn that the negativity Labour, in particular, is engaging in reeks of desperation, and looks like the tactic of a party that knows it's running a distant second. And does it even work to win over voters? They think not. The risk of all this talk of fear and negativity is that we convince ourselves that our campaign is toxic, turning off voters, undermining public engagement and debate, and talking ourselves into a political funk. That's bad for democracy on every level. Let's take a breath and remember our political debate is a long way from the violence and polarisation we see in so many countries. If the worst we have to endure is a guy hanging over a fence to interrupt a press conference and some mean photos of a party leader, we're not in too bad a shape. Let's not catastrophise…Go to this episode on rnz.co.nz for more details
• 
  Money or the bag: Major parties crashing into the centre 31.08.2023 36мин

  National's tax plan is a clever political document but raises questions about "heroic" numbers. We look at how much government spending doesn't change and what's up for grabs in coalition deals. Plus a quick visit to Ilam and Epsom.By Tim WatkinWatch the video version of the episode hereAnalysis - National's tax plan released this week was one of the big set pieces left in the Election 2023 campaign, even though the campaign hasn't officially started yet. In the past tax plans have spurred and stalled political momentum, sparked debates about fiscal holes, lost voters and maybe even elections. So though we still have six weeks to go to the election, there was a lot riding on Christopher Luxon and Nicola Willis when they talked tax this week. It's the focus of this week's Caucus podcast.National produced a clever and careful political document. As Julian Wilcox says, they made sure they didn't know the ball on five metres from the try line. That was their first job and they got it done. The narrative crafted was about support for "the squeezed middle", seeking to underline both the caring face of National and its steady hand at the fiscal tiller.It was a tax plan very much in the modern style of economic managers. This was the National Party of Keith Holyoake and Harry Lake, not the party of Ruth Richardson and Don Brash. National is underlining its softer, centrist credentials, with hardly a hint of reforming zeal. In a week where National leader Christopher Luxon told Morning Report he believes in "better government" rather than smaller government, it was a largely ideological-free document. No trickle-down, no market solutions.Instead, it was a tax plan for swing voters. As Lisa Owen puts it, National and Labour are crashing into the centre. National won't touch Labour's winter energy payments or fees-free tertiary policy, for example. It will boost the Working For Families in-work tax credit by exactly the same amount as Labour. It carefully designed tax relief so that those on $80,000 a year would get the same dollar amount in their "back pocket: as someone earning 10 times that or more". You could see the delight on Luxon's face when he was able to point that out, nixing Prime Minister Chris Hipkins' favourite line of the past few weeks, that National was a party giving tax cuts to millionaires. That attack line has been silenced…Go to this episode on rnz.co.nz for more details
• 
  Don't stop believing: ACT hits fawke in the road as Labour falls & National stalls 24.08.2023 47мин

  ACT endures scrutiny, Shane Jones impersonates Julie Andrews and we recall 1999, while Lacklustre Luxon and Ho Hum Hipkins fail to inspire.Election 2023By Tim WatkinWatch the video version of the episode hereAnalysis - A new 1News Verian poll shows it is an uphill battle for the centre-left bloc, while ACT starts to feel the pressure of wanting to be treated like a big party. Does it risk blowing up like a Guy Fawkes night firework? Chris Hipkins' falling popularity narrows Labour's potential path to victory, while National steps on Pharmac's independence in its rush to make Christopher Luxon appear more caring.This week's episode of Caucus looks back to parallels between this campaign and the 1999 election, while Shane Jones takes to the hills to sing for Northland. The 1News Verian Poll put National at 37 percent, Labour at 29 percent, ACT at 13 percent, the Greens at 12 percent, NZ First at 3.7 percent, Te Pāti Māori at 2.6 percent and TOP 0.6 percent.Guyon Espiner said in order for National to be a credible leader of the next government, it needs to be up in the late 30s and they seemed to be going in that direction."It's interesting to me that ACT's vote had held up so well with National clearly on the rise and having some momentum and at that level of 13 percent, they would be the biggest, you know supporting partner in a government we've ever seen other than New Zealand First in '96."The fact ACT could be a significant player in the next government would encourage people to delve into the party's background to find out more about it, he said.Lisa Owen said ACT leader David Seymour had been laying the groundwork knowing his party's figures "have been building and holding".ACT leader David Seymour"Just looking back at David Seymour's comments over the last few months and he has said ACT should no longer be seen as a small party, and of the partnership with National he said they're going to have to be prepared to share power and be prepared to reverse policies that the Labour Party has put in place."Owen said the trend in the polls was not Labour's friend, but National's, as a slide to the right had become evident.Seymour this week created controversy after this comment on scrapping the Ministry of Pacific Peoples: "We'd probably send a guy called Guy Fawkes in there and it would be all over, but we'd probably have to have a more formal approach than that" - Seymour later said it was a joke.Espiner said it made him wince when he heard the comment…Go to this episode on rnz.co.nz for more details
• 
  National's yin and yang v Labour's frugal fear factor 17.08.2023 36мин

  With little money in the government's coffers heading into Election 2023, the Caucus podcast looks at how the two main parties plan to use fear, frugality and friendliness to win your vote.By Tim WatkinAnalysis: Labour's campaign strategy of stinginess has started to take shape, as it rolled out tax and welfare policies this week.Labour's big reveals - taking the GST off fruit and vegetables and increasing in-work tax credits by $25/week in 2024 - also pulled back the curtain on how it hopes to steal the election from National and ACT. While a big fuss was made of the details of the GST policy in particular - and its rejection by tax and health experts - this week's Caucus podcast discussed the politics behind the policy.The design flaws have been well traversed and Finance Minister Grant Robertson's discomfort with the policy couldn't be clearer, as was Jacinda Ardern's, David Cunliffe's and David Shearer's in previous iterations of Labour. It's a tortured political manoeuvre for Robertson, who clearly is no fan of the policy. He told the Auckland Business Chamber last March that it would make no sense take the GST off fresh beetroot and leave it on tinned beetroot if you wanted to help low income New Zealanders, yet that's exactly what he's just promised to do.He has to argue the new Grocery Commissioner will ensure that GST-savings will be passed to the consumer, when reports in Britain have shown the removal of the 5% VAT from period products led to just a 1% cut in prices. You know who also has a Grocery Commissioner (or a Grocery Code Adjudicator)? Britain. As Guyon Espiner mentions in the podcast, it's also a tough sell for Labour as a party that likes to pride itself on backing evidence-based policy, as seen during its pandemic response.But this is a different Labour Party with a different leader. And Chris Hipkins' Labour is pitching itself as a careful economic manager, a safe pair of hands during a cost of living crisis, a party led by a working-class lad who knows times are tough and is reining in those big-spending lefties in his ranks. It's determined to give National no scope to use its usual 'typical tax and spend Labour' charge. Indeed, this week it looks like Labour is trying to turn the tables on National. It has been proudly stingy with these big announcements that, frankly, weren't that big. …Go to this episode on rnz.co.nz for more details
• 
  Campaigns rev into gear over climate, dentalcare and cellphones 10.08.2023 37мин

  Get your teeth into the big announcements on climate change, cellphones and teeth. Caucus debates the BlackRock deal, China, free dentalcare affordability and teachers as the "phone police"Election 2023By Tim WatkinDrivers, start your engines. The campaign seemed to get into gear this week with the government making a number of announcements that looked to have at least one eye on the October election. Is this finally going to be a climate election?Chris Hipkins has now had a week or two in which his Cabinet is the same at the start as at the finish, so he was able to stand in front of a lot microphones talking about the things that he reckons matter to New Zealanders. Front and centre was the $2 billon BlackRock investment fund, to help New Zealand reach the goal of 100 percent renewable energy. He called it a "watershed" in New Zealand's transition away from fossil fuels. But then his predecessor, Jacinda Ardern, said climate change was New Zealand's was having her generation's "nuclear-free moment" back in 2017 and our greenhouse gas emissions are much the same now as they were then. So will it make a difference? This week's Caucus drills into the deal and what it means. From a climate point of view, it puts the transition away from fossil fuels at the head of the policy pack. The government stressed it was a "world first" and grabbed global attention. Its hope is that it's the sort of thing that makes you proud to be a New Zealander, in contrast to your justice minister being arrested, which most certainly does not.For NZ Inc it's a PR win for the country's clean, green image, as it is for BlackRock - a big investor in fossil fuels which is looking to build its greentech investments as well. Getting global headlines for a "world first" (eg Bloomberg: "New Zealand Works With BlackRock in Pursuit of 100% Green Power") and having serious people spending serious money here is always a win for the government of the day. But it's only a drop in the bucket of the estimated $42b the we'll need to spend to get to 100 percent or our $210b infrastructure deficit. It exposed some gaps between the major parties in other areas as well. Labour's partnership with American financiers to build green infrastructure stands out in a week when National's leader Christopher Luxon said he would "absolutely" take money from China's massive Belt and Road Initiative for more roads…Go to this episode on rnz.co.nz for more details
• 
  Missing in Action: Kingmakers, popular leaders, tax policy & something to believe in 03.08.2023 42мин

  The election is just two months away. 10 weeks. 72 days. Caucus returns looking at what's distinct about this campaign - no kingmaker, missed opportunities, weaker majors and stronger minor parties, Election 2023By Tim WatkinThe campaign proper is still weeks away, but the campaign in real terms is already in full swing. So Caucus is back.What marks out Election 2023 as different so far? The Caucus team - Julian Wilcox, Lisa Owen, Tim Watkin and Guyon Espiner - looks at the lack of a potential kingmaker and the rise of set left and right blocs. Locked blocs, you might say. The minor parties are looking strong, while the latest polls show both major parties struggling in the 30s. It looks something like the first MMP election back in 1996, when the minors had more strength and both major parties lacked dominant charismatic leaders.They discuss missed opportunities, flank parties and their tactics, plus the resignation of Revenue Minister David Parker, amidst Chris Hipkins' call to reject a wealth or capital gains tax. New Caucus member Julian Wilcox even quotes Shakespeare, asking if Hipkins chose to tarry when he should have hazarded some policy. While Lisa Owen wonder if us voters are the problem, rather than the leaders. So rather than Shakespeare, she's quoting Seinfeld: 'It's not you, it's me'.We discuss how the minor parties can cross both Chrises, look at Luxon's lack of appeal and ask if Hipkins is a Rowling or a Fraser.Go to this episode on rnz.co.nz for more details
• 
  Explaining The Red Tide: Kiwis hug Jacinda back as Labour breaks records 22.10.2020 51мин

  The crew open their envelopes and reveal their picks, as they make sense of Labour's govern-alone victory, National's much-needed rebuild, the return of te Pati Maori and the Greens' delight in the face of powerlessnessElection 2020By Tim WatkinWatch the video version of the episode hereThrough the past three years, as grief and crises have hit New Zealand, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has reached out and hugged those who were struggling. In Election 2020, New Zealand hugged her right back, delivering a victory on such a scale it puts her in the box seat for the 2023 election before all the 2020 special votes have even been counted.In this week's final Caucus podcast, the team agrees the red tide has flowed, in large part as a nationwide thank you to Ardern and the Labour-led government's handling of Covid-19. Labour and the Greens won 57 percent of the vote, the biggest vote for the Left in New Zealand since Norman Kirk's 1972 Labour win, and arguably the highest ever, trumping the first Labour government's 55.8 percent support in 1938.It's the first time a government gets to govern alone under MMP and gives Labour its most new MPs since 1935. National won the party vote in only four out 64 seats.Yet tides that flow can also ebb, and Lisa Owen and Scott Campbell warned of the potential for hard choices ahead trying to balance the beliefs of Labour voters, old and new.On election night Ardern spoke to the cheering party faithful, but directed her comments at swing voters who had switched over to Labour, telling them she would not take their support for granted and her second term administration would govern for all New Zealanders. "Why were they cheering for that," asks Espiner. While it's a great Obama-esque line, there's "something darker" in that for party stalwarts. As Owen says, "Hang on a minute, don't you realise what this means for you? This means she's going to be hugging the centre line arguably. She's not going to want to annoy those people she says she's bringing into the nest. What does this mean for the policies that are dear to the heart of the Labour movement and some of those policies that are going to send shivers down the spine of some of those people who voted for them?"The reason I said at the top that the vote for the Left was only "arguably" the highest ever is because it depends on your definition of Left. Is Ardern's Labour government really very left-wing, or is it mostly a continuation of the centrist governments run by John Key and Helen Clark…Go to this episode on rnz.co.nz for more details
• 
  Wealth, weight, winners and the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard 15.10.2020 39мин

  Two days out, we hear surprise calls on wealth taxes and obesity and the Caucus crew debate the seats to watch, highs and lows, winners and losers. And we put our picks in an envelope.By Tim WatkinWatch the video version of the episode hereWhenever Sir Edmund Hillary was asked about whether he thought George Mallory might have beat him to the top of Mt Everest in the 1920s, he would point out that part of being a successful mountaineer was making it back down. Sports people are quick to tell you it doesn't matter if you lead for 79 minutes if you're behind when the final whistle blows. The National Party seems to have missed that memo, however. After the first half of the campaign went better than they expected, the wheels have started to fall off. In the past two weeks, Judith Collins has turned into something of a snowball, crashing down the mountain of this campaign.That's commentary on National's unravelling campaign strategy, not on the National leader's weight. Because who would be mad enough to make weight an issue in the final week of an election campaign, right? Who would insult people for not staying on top of their obesity, when they are trying to win an election? As it turns out, that'd be Judith Collins.National tried for a big shake-up last week, opting to go negative, go hard and go late, you might say. Collins called Labour's Jacinda Ardern a liar on border testing and attacked the Green Party's proposed 1 percent wealth tax on freehold assets over a million dollars. But as the Caucus crew unpack in this week's podcast, it's backfired.It felt like a desperate play, as most voters care more about keeping their job through Covid-19 and whether Nana will stay safe than some complex new tax for the 6 percent of richest New Zealanders proposed by a party that may or may not make it back to Parliament. But at first it got the desired result, as Labour said 'heck no' and the Greens said 'hell yes'. Doubt was raised and those middle class voters enamoured of Ardern and New Zealand's Covid response had reason to pause for thought…Go to this episode on rnz.co.nz for more details
• 
  Collins & Peters on thin ice as Ardern finds her feet 08.10.2020 41мин

  The New Zealand First Foundation in court, Judith Collins pays a price on Ponsonby Rd, Jacinda Ardern finds some form & a chance for Te Pati Maori.Election 2020By Tim WatkinWatch the video version of the episode hereNational's not having the week Judith Collins would have prayed for.After a couple of strong debate performances and some solid policy releases, some National MPs were starting to dare to hope that there might be a hint of a shadow of an outside chance for some kind of upset this election. Labour leader Jacinda Ardern was looking flat and two polls shifted things just a smidge to the centre-right. Then Denise Lee sent an email and Collins went for a walk.As voters have started advance voting in large numbers, they have been reminded that National has been a party divided this past term and a couple of debates don't heal all wounds. In Caucus this week, the consensus was that National at the worst possible time has reminded voters there are real questions about its readiness to govern. And the damage was entirely self-inflicted.Someone in National leaked an angry email from Maungakiekie MP and the party's Auckland spokeswoman, Denise Lee, criticising Judith Collins' announcement of a review of Auckland Council, 10 years after the super city was created. It was a pretty tepid policy - a review, something much like another 'working party' that National has been loudly critical of this past term - but it was a chance for Collins to kick into Auckland Council. A pretty safe target. Lee, however, hadn't been consulted on the policy and thought that "a shockingly bad example of poor culture". The review plan, she wrote, was "problematic".She should have felt safe to vent amongst trusted colleagues, but instead one of them forwarded the email to media. As discussed in the podcast, it's not unusual for leaders to make policy on the hoof during a campaign. Collins and Ardern both promised a review of Pharmac off the cuff on the Newshub leaders' debate, for example.It's especially predictable given Collins took on the job at the last minute, tasked with "saving the furniture", as Mike Moore once put it. Collins took the risk to save her party and deserves the licence to wing it now and then. But the leak is a clear reminder that some in her own caucus don't want her to get too comfortable in the job or boost the party's vote too much. Save the furniture, but don't get too comfortable in the big chair, you might say…Go to this episode on rnz.co.nz for more details
• 
  Collins goes vote plucking, while Peters makes 'last stand' 01.10.2020 46мин

  Caucus rates a fired-up leaders' debate as Collins looks to bring voters 'home', while Winston Peters rages as he's 'exonerated'.By Tim WatkinWatch the video version of the episode hereYou could almost see the basket in Judith Collins' arm during last night's Newshub Leaders' Debate, as she went merrily about her business picking fruit from the voter tree.Praise farmers and reassure them she won't "beggar" them for a photo op? One apple plucked from the National tree. Tough on law and order? One plucked from the New Zealand First tree. Mention her Christianity and belief in miracles? Pluck from the New Conservatives. Promise to get rid of the gun register? Pluck from ACT.Pluck, pluck, pluck.Amidst the hurly-burley of an energetic and fast-paced debate Collins was - to use a phrase popular under the previous National government - very targeted in her approach. The debate for her was a vote harvesting exercise and she managed it with aplomb. She also continued her efforts to introduce herself to voters, talking about her brother-in-law's cancer and her faith. Though there were some clunky moments - calling Ardern "dear" and praising Donald Trump - she looked more Prime Ministerial than ever before.As Guyon Espiner says on today's Caucus podcast, debates seldom significantly move voters, but Collins' performance in the second televised leaders' debate is likely to have some, on the centre-right at least, pondering a return home to National."Judith Collins, with that kind of performance and building on the TV One debate, may have stopped the rot for National and may even have gained a little bit," he says.It was a performance, Scott Campbell adds, that Simon Bridges or Todd Muller would have struggled to deliver.Those minor parties - ACT, New Zealand First and the New Conservatives - are probably the biggest losers from last night's debate - apart from "communist" David Attenborough and poor old Feilding, named New Zealand's 'Most Beautiful Town' 16 times, but last night used as an example of the ravages of methamphetamine on small town New Zealand.Not that Labour leader Jacinda Ardern had a bad night. It was a world apart from her flat, policy wonk performance in the first leaders' debate. Sometimes it seems she's so determined to play nice and be kind that she misses opportunities to point out the differences between her party and her opponent's. But she used her Covid experience effectively and looked more like a woman in charge…Go to this episode on rnz.co.nz for more details
• 
  Sending out the political assassins as National shoots itself in the foot 24.09.2020 48мин

  With eight days, 18 hours, two minutes and 10 seconds until voting starts, party leaders are calling up hit-jobs as they scrap for their political lives. Plus, the debate debacles, ACT's rise and National's steady run of own goals.By Tim WatkinWatch the video version of the episode hereAs the clock ticks down on this year's election campaign, the guns are coming out. I know, the usual politics cliche is that the gloves are coming off, but in this otherwise subdued campaign we're talking about more than mere body blows. Parties and their leaders are fighting for their political lives. Election 2020 has felt like a phony war, a bout of shadow boxing as politicians go through the motions, always with half an eye on Covid-19 and the virus sweeping the world. But the election at the end of it all is entirely real and deadly serious, especially for New Zealand First, the Greens and most other minor parties. The language is escalating.In a typical MMP election, parties are conscious of potential coalition negotiations after election day. For the past couple of elections - as Guyon Espiner reminds us in today's Caucus podcast - National has been hoping to finish off New Zealand First. But it was always an unspoken goal, lest Winston Peters & Co end up as monarch-makers after the election. This year it's all more explicit.This week Judith Collins said on Newstalk ZB that ACT leader David Seymour has two jobs - to retain Epsom and "get rid of Winston Peters". It was an unusually transparent request for a political hit-job. New Zealand First's Northland candidate Shane Jones was equally direct on Newshub Nation last weekend, saying "I think there are a host of people in Labour who find the Greens more agreeable than myself. Which is why I'm going to do everything I can to ensure the Greens don't survive".Both parties are in real jeopardy because neither has an electorate seat to keep them in parliament if they don't reach the five percent MMP threshold. While there had been talk about Jones competing in Northland and Chloe Swarbrick having a go in Auckland Central, the only public polls have them both sitting in third place. It's almost certainly five or bust for both parties and there's no love lost as they scrap it out.In a similar vein, The Opportunities Party and Māori Party must wonder if they can survive another election cycle outside of parliament if they don't somehow reach five percent. That's unlikely for either, but at least the Māori Party have a shot at political survival via Te Tai Hauāuru…Go to this episode on rnz.co.nz for more details
• 
  Gulliver's Election... and is Labour angling to govern alone? 17.09.2020 40мин

  Welcome to the recession, with giant debt, spending and unemployment that make previous campaigns look like Lilliput. How are New Zealand First are trying to recover & does Labour really want to govern alone?Election 2020By Tim WatkinWatch the video version of the episode hereAfter a week of heavy policy releases where the major parties have clung to the political centre like a limpet to a life raft, we've been reminded - as if we needed it - why we have a life raft in the first place. It's official: Welcome to Recession Day. New Zealand's economy shrunk by 12.2 percent in the June quarter, the second quarter of negative growth in a row. Yesterday, Treasury laid out its pre-election fiscal update (PREFU), offering its non-partisan predictions for the next four years. As Kiwibank Chief Economist Jarrod Kerr says, "We've never seen anything like this. It was traumatic." Or as Guyon Espiner says on today's Caucus podcast, "Pakaru mai te hāunga te āhuatanga o te ōhanga". The economy is stuffed.An estimated 280,000 New Zealanders will be unemployed in 2022, government debt will reach 55.3 percent of GDP by 2024 (up from 19 percent last year), when we'll owe a whopping $201 billion. As we discuss on this week's Caucus podcast, these are massively, enormously, giant figures. But in the midst of a global pandemic it can be hard to absorb just how big they are. So let's put it this way; this was a PREFU straight out of Gulliver's Travel, where Lemuel Gulliver is shipwrecked on the shores of Lilliput, a land inhabited by people who are 15cm tall. The numbers are on a Gulliver-esque scale; so much bigger than everything you've seen before. Previous election numbers look Lilliputian by comparison.Most years this result would be the government's death warrant, but in a sign of the bizarre times, Finance Minister Grant Robertson was able to announce the numbers with a tone of optimism. Treasury and the banks had in May been predicting unemployment at least double the 7.8 percent peak now predicted and economic contraction of 17-18 percent. So Robertson is able to say we're better off than many had feared. He took credit for that while blaming the worsening medium-term predictions on global uncertainty.It's almost like it's an election campaign…Go to this episode on rnz.co.nz for more details
• 
  Timid tax, debating debates and say hello to Kinder Collins 10.09.2020 43мин

  Labour's tax policy is tentative, but is it also 'right for right now'? And is it negotiable? Judith Collins' policy releases point to less Crusher, more Kinder. Plus, how to mess up TV debates and the Matariki mood.By Tim WatkinIt was one of the big unanswered questions every political junkie was waiting for. No, not National's Infrastructure Bank. Definitely not a new public holiday. Though we'll come to those. It was Labour's tax policy. How brave would it be? Would Labour dare to promise transformation or would it play it safer?We got the answer yesterday - a new top tax rate of 39 percent for those earning over $180,000. A promise to try a bit harder on taxing multi-nationals. And that was it. As Guyon Espiner says in today's Caucus podcast, if 'tax is love' then this was a peck on the cheek. An elbow bump at best.Is this the tax policy Jacinda Ardern and Grant Robertson dreamed of unveiling through their long years in Opposition? By no means. They believe in a Capital Gains Tax. They would certainly tax harder if they could. But Robertson's argument is that what has largely been described as a timid approach to tax policy is the "right thing to do right now".And have no doubt, it is timid. In 2014 David Cunliffe's policy was 36 percent on income over $150,000 and in 2011 Phil Goff's 'tax switch' involved an interest free zone and 39 cents over $150,000. Back when Labour last introduced a new top tax rate - under Helen Clark in 1999 - it was 39 cents on incomes over $60,000 (which is around $90,000 in today's money). Even with the move to a 39 percent top tax rate New Zealand will still have the 12th lowest top tax rate of the 36 countries in the OECD; so staying in the bottom third. Australia's is 47 percent, Canada's 53.5 and Britain's 45. And given it cuts in only at $180,000 - as Robertson endlessly repeats, it only taxes the top two percent of earners - it's at the conservative end of the developed world.In sum: timid…Go to this episode on rnz.co.nz for more details