Two Quants and a Financial Planner

Episod

• Expensive Market. AI Backlash. Are Investors Pricing the Wrong Risk? | 6 Things We Learned This Week 05.07.2026 39min

  Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down the biggest investing ideas from the week, including the AI bull market, data center backlash, semiconductor cyclicality, US stock market dominance and long-term market history. The episode features clips from Warren Pies, Meb Faber, Kai Wu and Ritavan on how investors should think about model progress, valuation, bear markets, moats, strategy and global diversification.Main topics coveredWhy political backlash against AI data centers may become a bigger risk than open source competitionHow Sam Altman, Dario Amodei and AI lab leaders are shaping the public narrative around artificial intelligenceWhy model progress, enterprise AI adoption and compute demand remain central to the AI bull marketMeb Faber on 250 years of US market history and the power of long-term compoundingWhy expensive US stock valuations can coexist with long-term optimism about AmericaHow bear markets reset speculative excess and why younger investors may benefit from future declinesWarren Pies on whether semiconductors are being priced like a less cyclical industryWhy peak margins and low valuation multiples can be misleading in cyclical businessesKai Wu and Ritavan on how AI changes moats, code, proprietary data and corporate strategyThe System Gambit framework and why old checklists can fail when the game changesHow investors should think about US versus international markets across decades and centuriesWhy future diversification may depend on where the next great innovation sandbox emergesTimestamps00:00 Intro and weekly lineup04:00 AI data centers, politics and the PR problem09:18 Meb Faber on US market history and bear markets14:44 Are semiconductors still cyclical?20:56 Kai Wu on code, AI and changing moats25:57 Ritavan on the System Gambit and the Ottoman Empire30:28 Meb Faber on US versus international stocks36:00 America as an innovation sandbox38:06 Closing thoughts and where to follow Excess Returns
• Easy Bubbles. Hard 100 Baggers. Useless AI | 6 Things We Learned This Week 28.06.2026 35min

  This week’s Weekly Wrap breaks down the biggest investing lessons from our conversations with GMO’s Ben Inker and 100 Baggers author Chris Mayer. We discuss how to think about market bubbles, AI capital spending, earnings risk, IPO supply, SpaceX, long-term compounders, and the founder traits that matter for investors.Main topics coveredBen Inker’s framework for easy bubbles versus hard bubblesWhy the 2000 tech bubble was easier to navigate than the 2008 financial crisisHow expected returns can help investors think about risk and rewardChris Mayer on why labels like AI, software or SpaceX can mislead investorsWhy investors need to understand what companies actually mean when they say AIThe case that today’s market risk may be hiding in earnings rather than valuationsHow AI data center spending can boost current corporate profits before depreciation hitsWhy great 100-bagger stocks usually give investors many chances to buyHow IPO supply from companies like SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic could affect market returnsChris Mayer’s approach to evaluating founders, compensation, incentives and cultureTimestamps00:00 Intro to the Weekly Wrap and the new episode format02:22 Ben Inker on easy bubbles, hard bubbles and 2000 versus 200808:12 Chris Mayer on SpaceX, AI and the danger of letting labels do the thinking14:13 Ben Inker on earnings bubbles, AI spending and why valuations may look reasonable19:38 Chris Mayer on 100-baggers and why investors do not need to buy immediately22:53 Ben Inker on IPO supply, lockups and what new equity issuance can do to returns28:03 Chris Mayer on evaluating founders, incentives, compensation and trust34:38 Closing thoughts and the new Excess Returns Clips channel
• Expensive Market. Record Issuance. Can the Story Still Hold It Up? | 6 Things We Learned This Week 22.06.2026 34min

  This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap breaks down the biggest investing lessons from Aswath Damodaran, Andy Constan and Tobias Carlisle. We discuss SpaceX valuation, AI capital spending, IPO mechanics, market overvaluation, the shift from buybacks to issuance, and whether value, small caps and equal weight stocks are starting to reverse years of mega-cap dominance.Topics covered:Why Aswath Damodaran says valuation requires both stories and numbersHow investors can evaluate SpaceX without relying only on total addressable marketWhy IPOs are designed to trade well after issuanceHow a small public float can influence the perceived value of an entire companyWhy expensive market valuations do not automatically mean investors should sell everythingWhat history suggests about forward returns when market valuations are extremeWhy AI is changing the capital intensity of the Magnificent 7The underrated role of restraint in business strategy and AI spendingHow the market is shifting from buybacks to stock issuanceWhy value, small caps and equal weight stocks may be showing early signs of a reversalTimestamps:00:00 Intro and this week’s episodes with Aswath Damodaran, Andy Constan and Tobias Carlisle04:17 What the SpaceX story needs to justify the valuation08:56 Why IPO issuers may want the stock to trade up13:20 Why mean reversion looks harder to trust in today’s market17:28 How AI CapEx changes the Mag 7 valuation equation22:21 Why buybacks and issuance matter for stock market supply27:28 Are value, small caps and equal weight stocks starting to reverse?31:53 Why market broadening can continue if recession is avoided
• When the Fire Hose Meets the Megatrend | The Weekly Wrap 15.06.2026 35min

  In this episode of the Excess Returns Weekly Wrap, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down two major conversations with Mike Green and Vanguard's Joe Davis. The discussion connects passive investing flows, mega-cap concentration, AI-driven productivity, fiscal deficits, demographics, and the possibility that markets are being reshaped by forces most investors do not fully understand.Topics covered:* Why passive investing can act like a fire hose into the largest stocks* How market-cap weighting can amplify flows into mega-cap, high-volatility companies* The connection between passive flows, factor investing, size, beta, and volatility* Why Mike Green sees passive flow dynamics changing market behavior* How buy-the-dip behavior, ETF flows, CTAs, and volatility control funds can reinforce rallies* Vanguard's megatrends framework for technology, demographics, deficits, and globalization* Why long-term structural trends can affect short-term growth, inflation, and markets* Joe Davis's case that AI could be more transformative than the personal computer* The risk that AI only automates work rather than augmenting workers and creating new industries* Why disappointing AI adoption could bring fiscal deficits, inflation pressure, and higher Treasury yields back into focusTimestamps:00:00 Passive flows, AI, and the biggest forces shaping markets03:38 Mike Green on passive investing as a market liquidity fire hose08:26 The passive flow premium and why large-cap stocks keep winning12:00 Joe Davis on technology, demographics, deficits, and globalization16:20 Mike Green on whether passive flows can reverse20:46 Buy-the-dip behavior, ETF inflows, and market volatility21:25 Joe Davis on AI, deficits, and the future of U.S. growth25:04 The 20% probability of a 9% 10-year Treasury yield29:00 Why AI could be more powerful than the personal computer34:10 Final thoughts on Mike Green, Joe Davis, and the Excess Returns network
• The $1.75T IPO No One Can Price | 6 Things That Surprised Us This Week 08.06.2026 35min

  This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap looks at the market stories that surprised us most, including the potential SpaceX IPO, extreme valuations, market structure, AI disruption, value investing, tech leadership and oil prices. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down clips from Cameron Dawson, Kai Wu, Jim Paulsen and Dave Nadig on what investors should understand about valuation, index flows, disruption and market leadership.Topics Covered:Why the SpaceX IPO could test how investors think about growth, valuation and market structureCameron Dawson on what 80 to 100 times sales implies for a company as large as SpaceXThe Palantir comparison and why great growth can still get priced in too earlyKai Wu on why traditional value investing struggles in industries exposed to technological disruptionHow value investing has performed differently in exposed versus insulated sectorsJim Paulsen on the shift from Magnificent Seven leadership to small cap tech and unprofitable tech stocksDave Nadig on why SpaceX’s small free float and index inclusion mechanics could distort price discoveryWhy forced index buying, options trading and pre-positioning could make the first 30 days of SpaceX trading chaoticKai Wu on AI disruption, software stocks and why dispersion creates both opportunity and riskJim Paulsen on why the biggest stock market pressure from oil spikes may come after oil prices peakTimestamps:00:54 What surprised us most this week05:27 What 100x sales means for SpaceX investors10:52 Why value investing still works outside disrupted industries15:45 Why risky market leadership can continue longer than investors expect20:53 Why SpaceX’s low free float matters for index funds25:23 AI disruption and the opportunity in software dispersion29:23 How dispersion creates winners and destroys funds33:46 Why oil peaks can pressure the economy with a lag
• They Lose on Purpose — And Still Come Out Ahead | The Weekly Wrap - 5/31/2026 31.05.2026 1j 2min

  This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap breaks down the best investing insights from Adam Parker, Robert Hagstrom, and Eric Crittenden. We discuss why the market may still be trading on fundamentals, why valuation alone can fail as a stock-picking tool, how modern portfolio theory changed investing, what business-driven investors can learn from Warren Buffett, and why trend following may work by providing liquidity to hedgers.Topics covered:Why the stock market may be looking through today’s headlines to future earnings and AI-driven fundamentalsAdam Parker’s argument that valuation does not work well as a standalone stock-picking signalWhy estimate revisions, earnings beats, and gross margin changes may matter more than cheap P/E ratiosRobert Hagstrom on Harry Markowitz, Benjamin Graham, and the debate over whether volatility is the same thing as riskHow modern portfolio theory shaped active management, index funds, and the way investors think about diversificationWarren Buffett’s casino and cathedral metaphor for separating stock prices from business ownershipEric Crittenden on why hedgers may willingly lose money on trades to reduce business risk and lower cost of capitalWhy trend following may earn a risk premium by providing liquidity to hedgers in their moment of needHow systematic investors should think about tinkering with models during drawdownsRobert Hagstrom’s story about Bill Ruane and the importance of finding the right clients and investorsTimestamps:00:00 Risk, valuation, and hedging in this week’s best clips04:06 Adam Parker on why the market may still be trading on fundamentals08:49 Why cheap stocks are often cheap for a reason14:37 Robert Hagstrom on Harry Markowitz and the birth of modern portfolio theory18:50 How portfolio theory became the institutional language of investing22:27 Eric Crittenden on hedgers, cost of capital, and who is on the other side of the trade27:51 Adam Parker on why firm-wide market outlooks are so hard to get right33:53 Robert Hagstrom on Buffett’s casino and cathedral metaphor39:16 Why gross margin change may be one of the most important stock-picking signals44:56 Eric Crittenden and Jason Buck on tinkering with systematic strategies49:00 Why trend following may work over the long term53:09 Robert Hagstrom on meeting Bill Ruane and learning which clients to avoid58:38 Why firing the wrong clients can strengthen an investment business
• He Studied 100 Years of Bubbles. He Exposed Private Equity's Volatility Illusion | The Weekly Wrap 25.05.2026 1j 6min

  This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap breaks down the biggest investing lessons from our conversations with Cliff Asness, Andy Constan, Gene Munster, Doug Clinton, and Ben Carlson. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler discuss volatility, bubble regimes, AI infrastructure, private equity risk, investor behavior, and why doing nothing is often harder than it looks.Main topics covered:Cliff Asness on why volatility is not a perfect risk measure, but still matters for real investorsThe limits of defining risk only as permanent loss of capitalAndy Constan on why bubbles can feel low risk because they trend with low volatilityHow leverage, confidence, and investor behavior can inflate bubble regimesGene Munster and Doug Clinton on AI, electricity, data centers, hyperscaler CapEx, and energy demandWhy AI infrastructure constraints may affect whether the AI boom becomes a classic bubbleBen Carlson on Shark Week, vivid risks, and why investors often fear the wrong thingsCliff Asness on private equity, volatility laundering, and the illusion of smooth returnsAndy Constan on what active investors should do in bubble regimes and why mean reversion can failDoug Clinton and Gene Munster on AI job disruption, knowledge workers, and how to adaptBen Carlson on action bias, penalty kicks, and why doing nothing can be the hardest investing decisionTimestamps:00:00 Intro and the week’s biggest investing clips03:37 Cliff Asness on volatility, risk, and permanent loss of capital10:16 Andy Constan on why low volatility can make bubbles more dangerous20:41 Gene Munster and Doug Clinton on turning electricity into intelligence25:11 Why AI power constraints may change the bubble debate30:39 Ben Carlson on Shark Week, vivid risks, and investor attention35:44 Cliff Asness on private equity and volatility laundering43:42 Andy Constan on alpha, sizing down, and trading in bubbles50:06 Doug Clinton and Gene Munster on AI, jobs, and knowledge workers57:55 AI blind spots, token subsidies, and old tech investing frameworks59:58 Ben Carlson on penalty kicks, action bias, and doing nothing01:04:45 Quant lessons in sports, the Knicks, and closing thoughts
• He Invested Through Five Bubbles. He Wrote the Book on Them | The Weekly Wrap - 5/17/2026 17.05.2026 1j 8min

  This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap brings together highlights from our interviews with Jeremy Grantham, Andy Constan, Edward Chancellor and Marc Rubinstein to examine AI, bubbles, private credit, market structure and the lessons of past capital cycles.We look at whether AI is creating a new investment bubble, why technological revolutions often disappoint investors even when the technology succeeds, and how private credit, financials, monopolies and market leadership fit into today’s confusing market environment.Main topics covered:• Jeremy Grantham on mean reversion, monopoly power and why the Mag 7 may have avoided normal competitive pressure• Andy Constan’s framework for bubbles, including the “something new,” escalation event and peaking phase• Edward Chancellor on AI capex, overstated demand and why boom-time profits can reverse when investment is misallocated• Marc Rubinstein on private credit, redemption gates, retail investors and why the risks may be real without being systemic• Grantham’s argument that AI may become a cost of doing business rather than a permanent boost to aggregate profits• Lessons from Long-Term Capital Management and how policy responses can add fuel to a bubble• What railway mania, canals and past technology booms can teach investors about winners, losers and overbuilding• Rubinstein’s case for European financials and why growth can be dangerous in financial services• Grantham’s bubble detector and the signal that has appeared near the tops of 1929, the Nifty Fifty, 2000 and 2021• Why investors need humility when navigating bubble regimes, AI enthusiasm, private credit and market concentrationTimestamps:00:00 Jeremy Grantham, Andy Constan and Edward Chancellor on AI, bubbles and capex01:14 Why this week’s conversations connect across AI, bubbles and market structure04:31 Jeremy Grantham on monopoly power, mean reversion and the Mag 711:24 Andy Constan’s three-stage framework for market bubbles20:12 Edward Chancellor on AI capex, overstated demand and reported profits30:28 Marc Rubinstein on private credit gates and the limits of systemic risk37:50 Jeremy Grantham on why AI may become a cost of doing business42:55 How Long-Term Capital Management helped fuel the late 1990s bubble50:02 What railways, canals and overbuilding teach us about technology booms55:58 Marc Rubinstein on European financials, innovation and US market confusion1:00:38 Jeremy Grantham’s bubble detector and the warning from market leaders1:05:59 Closing thoughts on bubble signals, investor humility and Excess Returns resources
• The S&P 500 is Just 46 Stocks. 89% of the Economy is Flatlining | What We Learned This Week 11.05.2026 1j 6min

  This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap looks at what Ian Cassel, Chris Mayer, Jim Paulsen and Elena Khoziaeva can teach investors about stock picking skill, inflation risk, AI, software moats, small caps and market concentration. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down clips on why elite investors can be wrong almost half the time, why today may not be the 1970s or the 1990s, how AI is affecting software businesses, and why the S&P 500 may be far less diversified than investors think.Topics CoveredWhy great stock pickers can be right only 49% of the time and still generate exceptional returnsThe role of outliers, magnitude and position sizing in long-term investing successJim Paulsen’s argument that today’s inflation backdrop is very different from the 1970sHow supply shocks, tariffs, commodities and labor force growth shape the inflation outlookBridgeway’s research on redefining the small-cap premium by excluding IPOs and fallen large capsWhy vertical market software may be more resilient to AI disruption than horizontal softwareHow the AI boom and new era economy are masking weakness in the rest of the economyWhy the S&P 500 may effectively be driven by fewer than 50 stocks despite having 500 namesWhat management meetings can and cannot add to a stock picker’s processWhy patience, conviction and independent business verification may be enduring investing edgesTimestamps00:00 Intro and episode preview05:30 Why outliers drive stock picking returns09:58 Why today’s inflation may not be the 1970s17:27 Rethinking the small-cap premium24:11 AI disruption and vertical market software32:04 The AI boom versus the rest of the economy37:04 Why the S&P 500 acts like 46 stocks46:09 What investors can learn from management teams53:32 Why today’s tech boom is not the 1990s58:34 Patience, conviction and the last investing edge01:05:32 Closing thoughts and Excess Returns Substack
• Outperformed by Mom | The Weekly Wrap – 5/2/2026 03.05.2026 1j 9min

  This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap examines what Chris Davis and Rich Bernstein can teach investors about letting winners run, inflation risk, market concentration, dividends, AI, and the difference between economic stories and investment returns. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down clips on portfolio concentration, the 1960s vs. the 1970s, investor complacency, the Fed’s inflation target, durable businesses, and where the next market opportunity may be hiding.Topics CoveredWhy letting winners run can be so powerful, but so hard for professional investorsChris Davis on how his mother outperformed by never selling great companiesThe tradeoff between concentration, diversification and real-world portfolio riskWhy Rich Bernstein thinks today may look more like the 1960s than the 1970sHow oil prices affect consumer behavior when measured against wagesChris Davis on why perceived risk can be very different from actual riskWhat cars, insurance and investor behavior reveal about market complacencyWhy the Fed’s 2% inflation target may not reflect the world investors are living inThe relationship between valuation, durability and software stocksWhy higher inflation could increase demand for dividends and near-term cash flowChris Davis on why exceptional people and management teams matter in investingWhy AI may be a great economic story but not necessarily a great investment storyTimestamps00:00 Letting winners run, 1960s inflation and investor risk perception02:18 Chris Davis on how his mother outperformed by never selling08:32 Reinvestment risk and the limits of active management12:45 Why oil shocks may matter less when gasoline is low relative to wages20:25 Chris Davis on why feeling safe can make investors take more risk29:20 Rich Bernstein on whether the Fed’s 2% inflation target is outdated34:08 Chris Davis on durability, valuation and software stocks39:39 Why cash flow gives durable companies room to adapt43:16 Rich Bernstein on dividends, inflation and the need for cash today51:55 Chris Davis on why people matter more than investors think56:07 The risk and value of investing with exceptional leaders1:01:30 Rich Bernstein on AI as an economic story vs. an investment story1:05:13 Why AI productivity may not translate into obvious stock market winners
• We Asked David Rosenberg, Chris Bloomstran and Cameron Dawson What This Market Is Getting Wrong 26.04.2026 1j 12min

  This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap explores one of the most important questions in markets today: what’s really driving this rally, and how fragile is it beneath the surface.We break down the growing concentration in earnings, the role of passive flows, and why multiple top investors see structural risks building even as markets continue to rise.We highlight key insights from David Rosenberg, Chris Bloomstran, Cameron Dawson, Dave Nadig, and Travis Prentice on market concentration, the macro link between asset prices and the economy, and how investors should think about risk, valuations, and positioning in an environment increasingly driven by flows rather than fundamentals.Topics CoveredWhy two companies are driving a disproportionate share of earnings growth and what that means for the broader marketThe growing link between stock prices, consumer spending, and the overall economyHow passive investing is changing market structure and risk measurementThe difference between tracking error risk and real risk for long-term investorsWhy valuations matter for long-term returns but not short-term timingLessons from past technology booms and whether AI is repeating historyThe role of capital intensity and margin pressure in today’s largest companiesWhy disruption eventually impacts even the best businessesHow professional investors adjust portfolios in expensive marketsWhy understanding probabilities and multiple scenarios is critical for investingTimestamps00:00 Intro04:45 David Rosenberg on the “perma bear” label and managing tail risk09:18 Chris Bloomstran on disruption and why no company compounds forever15:40 Why the economy is increasingly tied to the stock market20:28 The savings rate, consumer spending, and hidden economic risks26:00 Passive investing, flows, and how market structure has changed31:32 Tracking error vs real risk and investor behavior37:28 David Rosenberg on probabilities and having a plan B42:26 How investors manage portfolios in expensive markets43:38 Two companies driving 50% of earnings growth49:00 Concentration vs broadening in the market55:25 Valuations, bubbles, and expected returns01:01:00 Why valuations are not a short-term timing tool01:07:00 AI investment, overcapacity, and lessons from past tech cycles01:12:30 Bull vs bear case for AI-driven growth01:18:00 Final thoughts on market structure, flows, and long-term risks
• We Asked Liz Ann Sonders, Jim Grant, and Brent Donnelly What Investors Miss About This Market 19.04.2026 1j 5min

  This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap brings together insights from Jim Grant, Liz Ann Sonders, and Brent Donnelly to break down the biggest forces driving markets right now, including war-driven inflation, oil shocks, market resilience, and the evolving role of sentiment and policy reactions. The conversation connects macro history with real-time market behavior to help investors understand what actually matters beneath the headlines.Topics Covered:Why war has historically been one of the most consistent drivers of inflationHow oil shocks impact both inflation and economic growth simultaneouslyThe nuance behind the “US as a net energy exporter” narrativeWhy markets require a steady stream of bad news to sustain a declineHow policy reaction functions (Fed, government) shape market outcomesThe difference between structural trends and short-term shocks in tradingWhy “buy the dip” has worked—and the risks if it stops workingThe role of retail traders and short-term flows in modern market dynamicsContribution vs. price performance in the Mag 7 and S&P 500How sentiment has evolved across different investor cohorts and timeframesTimestamps:00:00 Intro and overview of this week’s guests01:03 Jim Grant on why war is inherently inflationary05:16 Historical context for inflation and wartime dynamics10:40 Liz Ann Sonders on oil shocks and stock market reactions13:11 Demand destruction and the “cure for high prices”15:57 Brent Donnelly on shocks, positioning, and mean reversion18:33 Policy reaction functions and market reflexivity21:44 Jim Grant on bubbles, technology, and the air conditioning analogy27:04 Liz Ann Sonders on buy-the-dip behavior and retail traders32:37 Why markets need sustained bad news to decline38:24 Jim Grant on trust as the foundation of credit markets41:47 Liz Ann on Mag 7 growth vs. the rest of the market46:02 Contribution vs. performance in index construction48:01 Jim Grant on inflation, oil shocks, and policy mistakes52:38 Inflation as a continuous process and purchasing power loss57:09 Liz Ann on Marty Zweig, sentiment, and modern market structure01:02:35 Final thoughts on sentiment, behavior, and market complexity
• The Recession Signal Hidden in Walmart | The Weekly Wrap - 4/12/2026 12.04.2026 1j 10min

  This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap brings together insights from Jim Paulsen, Brent Kochuba, Anthony Wang, and Tom Hancock to break down what’s really driving markets right now—from recession signals and oil shocks to AI economics and options flows. We explore whether current conditions look more like the start of a new bull market or something more fragile beneath the surface.We dive into unique indicators like the “Walmart signal,” shifting oil/VIX correlations, the real economics behind the AI boom, and what options markets are telling us about positioning and risk.Topics Covered:The Walmart vs. luxury retail indicator and what it signals about recession riskWhy oil is no longer driving volatility the way it did earlier in the crisisHow geopolitical shocks are (and aren’t) translating into equity market stressThe role of options flows and the JP Morgan collar in shaping market movesWhy all market signals should be viewed as probabilities, not certaintiesAI and the “cost of intelligence going to zero” and what that means for productivityThe layering of AI economics and how cash flows through the systemWhy this AI cycle differs from the dot-com bubble (utilization, funding, cost curves)The importance of cash-funded capex vs. debt-driven speculationWhy low consumer confidence may actually be bullish for stocksIndicators that look more like the start of a bull market than the endThe role of sentiment, positioning, and underreaction in driving returnsTimestamps:00:00 Intro01:00 Weekly Wrap overview and guest lineup03:05 The Walmart indicator and recession signals06:20 Private credit stress vs traditional credit signals09:05 Interpreting economic indicators in context10:25 Oil and VIX correlation breakdown13:05 Why oil stopped driving volatility15:00 “Certainty about uncertainty” and market behavior16:10 AI and the collapsing cost of intelligence18:40 Agents, productivity, and the future of software21:05 AI skepticism vs long-term adoption curve22:30 AI capex, cash flow, and economic layering25:00 Why this AI cycle is more stable than dot-com27:00 Cash-funded investment vs debt-driven bubbles29:25 Bull market vs bear market signals today31:00 Consumer confidence as a contrarian indicator33:30 The role of sentiment and upside surprises34:25 The JP Morgan collar and market structure37:00 Trading probabilities vs certainty39:00 How options flows act as market “magnets”41:05 Comparing AI infrastructure to fiber buildout44:30 Utilization and demand in AI vs dot-com47:00 Network effects and scaling AI adoption01:09:30 Final thoughts and wrap-up
• The 1 in 18,900 Bet | Practical Lessons from Michael Maboussin, Katie Stockton, Ben Hunt, Kuppy and Aahan Menon 05.04.2026 1j 6min

  This episode of Excess Returns Weekly Wrap brings together the most important ideas from a packed week of interviews, covering AI and base rates, the Magnificent Seven, commodities, macro risks, and practical investing frameworks. Jack Forehand and Kai Wu break down key clips from Michael Mauboussin, Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman, Ben Hunt, Katie Stockton, and Aahan Menon to extract timeless lessons investors can apply across different market environments.The conversation moves from AI expectations and economic profit to geopolitical “common knowledge” moments, commodity dynamics, trend following, and the importance of thinking in probabilities and time horizons.Topics Covered:Why OpenAI’s growth expectations are historically unprecedented and what base rates actually tell usHow base rates should guide expectations without limiting outlier outcomes like AmazonWhy large companies are growing faster today and the role of intangible assets and softwareThe concentration of economic profit in the Magnificent Seven and what it implies for valuationsWhy long-term time horizons create a structural edge in investingThe concept of “common knowledge” and how it reshapes markets during geopolitical eventsWhere AI value will accrue: companies vs consumers vs suppliersWhy commodities behave differently from stocks and bonds during supply shocksHow trend following works and why commodities are uniquely suited to itWhy investing is a probabilities game and how to manage uncertainty and position sizingHow technical indicators like the 200-day moving average should actually be usedTimestamps:00:00 Intro and overview of Weekly Wrap format00:02:05 Michael Mauboussin on OpenAI growth and base rates00:06:18 Why base rates matter but don’t define outcomes00:09:50 Why large companies are growing faster than history suggests00:14:58 Kuppy on time horizons and avoiding short-term noise00:19:15 Ben Hunt on “common knowledge” and the Strait of Hormuz00:24:13 AI value accrual and consumer surplus vs company profits00:28:10 Commodities, backwardation, and why price trends differ from equities00:32:45 Trend following and why commodities exhibit stronger trends00:34:41 Investing as a game of probabilities and decision-making under uncertainty00:41:58 Katie Stockton on the 200-day moving average and technical signals00:46:20 Breadth, trend signals, and how technicals inform risk management00:50:30 Position sizing, uncertainty, and diversification frameworks00:55:40 Revisiting the Magnificent Seven and intangible assets00:59:00 Trend following frameworks and portfolio constructionCheck out the full episode and all of our interviews from this week on the Excess Returns YouTube channel and podcast platforms.
• The Shock No One Can Price | The Weekly Wrap - 3/29/2026 29.03.2026 1j 7min

  This episode of Excess Returns Weekly Recap breaks down one of the most complex market environments in recent memory, from the global oil shock and its economic ripple effects to base rates, AI-driven productivity, and private credit risks. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler synthesize insights from Bob Elliott, Chris Mayer, Robert, and Larry Swedroe to help investors understand what matters, what’s being mispriced, and where conviction should (and shouldn’t) exist.Topics covered:How oil supply shocks translate into inflation and reduced consumer spendingWhy oil demand is inelastic and creates mechanical economic slowdownsThe difference between consumer surplus and true productivity gains from AIWhy better tools don’t necessarily translate into higher earningsUnderstanding base rates and when it makes sense to bet against themHow extreme outliers drive market returns and portfolio constructionSurvivorship bias vs studying exceptional businesses the right wayPrivate credit risks, liquidity mechanisms, and media-driven narrativesWhy redemption fears in private credit may be overstatedThe importance of intellectual humility in macro investingWhy investors often have no edge in geopolitical forecastingIdentifying cross-asset mispricings instead of predicting outcomesHow AI may increase competition but not necessarily create more winnersThe persistence of winner-take-all dynamics across technological shiftsHow to think about conviction, uncertainty, and portfolio positioning in volatile environmentsTimestamps:00:00 Oil shock impact on consumer spending and inflation mechanics00:01:06 Why this market environment is unusually confusing for investors00:02:22 How oil supply shocks translate into price spikes and inflation00:05:20 The real-world impact of higher energy costs on household spending00:10:00 Base rates vs extreme outcomes in investing00:11:39 Survivorship bias and what investors misunderstand about outliers00:18:03 Private credit redemption risks and liquidity dynamics explained00:23:00 Media narratives vs actual cash flows in private credit funds00:27:11 AI productivity vs consumer surplus and why it matters00:30:26 Why better tools don’t always lead to higher earnings00:33:37 How to use base rates alongside conviction in investing decisions00:38:58 Why investors have no edge in predicting geopolitical outcomes00:41:00 Cross-asset signals and what markets may be mispricing00:45:12 How AI could reshape competition but not change winner dynamics00:47:57 When base rates break and how technological shifts reset expectations
• The War No One Can Price | The Weekly Wrap – 3/22/2026 22.03.2026 1j 10min

  This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap breaks down the biggest market drivers right now, including how markets price (or fail to price) war risk, why volatility signals are flashing unusual warnings, and what options market positioning is telling us about potential downside. Featuring Jared Dillian, Brent Kochuba and D.A. Wallach, the episode also explores how macro regime shifts are changing diversification, how the Fed is reacting to rising oil prices, and why biotech investing is essentially a portfolio of options.Topics Covered• Why markets struggle to price geopolitical risk and war probabilities• The concept of “willful ignorance” in market pricing of obvious risks• Implied vs realized volatility and what the VIX is signaling right now• Why volatility premium is near historic highs despite a relatively low VIX• How options flows and hedging activity influence stock market movements• The risk of a sudden volatility spike and what could trigger a VIX move to 40• The Fed’s dilemma with rising oil prices and inflation vs demand destruction• Why oil shocks can be both inflationary and deflationary at the same time• The idea of “path of least embarrassment” in Fed policy decisions• Biotech investing explained as a “bag of options” with probabilistic outcomes• How drug development stages impact valuation and expected returns• Regime change in markets and why stock-bond correlations have flipped• The concept of non-stationary markets and constantly changing investing rules• Why most investors fail to adapt during regime shifts• The “Awesome Portfolio” and diversification across economic regimes• How options dealer positioning and gamma exposure can amplify market moves• Why OPEX (options expiration) can act as a turning point for markets• The shift from short-term to longer-term hedging in uncertain environmentsTimestamps00:00 Why markets fail to price obvious risks like war03:30 The Ukraine example and delayed market reactions09:50 Volatility premium vs VIX and why the spread is unusual12:00 How hedging activity drives implied volatility higher16:30 Oil shock and the Fed’s policy dilemma18:40 Inflation vs demand destruction from higher energy prices23:00 Biotech investing as a portfolio of probabilistic outcomes27:00 Valuing drug pipelines using expected value and probabilities32:00 Regime change and the breakdown of stock-bond diversification35:00 Non-stationary markets and adapting to new investing rules47:00 The Awesome Portfolio and diversification across asset classes54:50 Options gamma and how dealer positioning impacts volatility57:00 Why a 2 to 3 percent drop could trigger a VIX spike to 40
• 14% for Tech. 1% for Everyone Else | The Weekly Wrap – 3/14/2026 14.03.2026 1j 4min

  In this episode, we break down the most important insights from the week on Excess Returns,, with insights from Vitaliy Katsenelson, Jim Paulsen, and Joseph Shaposhnik. Markets today are being shaped by powerful crosscurrents including AI disruption, defense spending, macro policy shifts, and historically high valuations. In this episode, we highlight the biggest ideas from our conversations and explore what they mean for investors trying to navigate an uncertain world. Topics include the importance of humility in investing, the potential disruption of software by AI, the growing divergence within the economy, and why long-term structural trends like defense spending may create new opportunities.Topics Covered• Why humility may be the most important trait for investors in a rapidly changing world• How uncertainty around AI, geopolitics, and macro policy is widening the range of possible market outcomes• Why some investors are reducing exposure to software businesses amid AI disruption• The importance of management teams that can adapt and evolve in periods of technological change• Jim Paulsen’s framework for understanding the “new era” economy versus the rest of the economy• Why a small portion of the economy may now be driving overall GDP growth• The idea that successful investing may be about being “least wrong” rather than perfectly right• How long-term structural trends like defense spending could create a multi-year investment tailwind• Why experienced investors focus on analyzing businesses rather than reacting to headlines• The potential deflationary impact of AI and how lower prices could shift spending across the economy• Why high market valuations may act as a headwind for future returns• The importance of deep research and preparation when unexpected events hit markets• Jim Paulsen’s concept of “policy juice” and how fiscal and monetary policy drive bull markets• Whether a new wave of policy support could broaden the current market rally beyond mega-cap techTimestamps00:00 Introduction02:00 Why humility matters more than ever in investing08:50 AI disruption and the future of software businesses18:07 The growing gap between the “new era” economy and the rest of the economy25:00 Surviving first and being the least wrong as an investor31:43 The potential defense spending supercycle37:44 AI’s deflationary impact and how innovation reshapes economies44:42 Why valuations act as a long-term headwind for stocks50:56 How investors should respond to geopolitical events56:49 Jim Paulsen on policy juice and the future of the bull market
• From AI Hype to Hard Money | The Weekly Market Insight – March 8, 2026 08.03.2026 1j 1min

  In this episode of Two Quants and a Financial Planner, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler highlight the most important investing insights from recent conversations across the Excess Returns podcast network. Drawing on discussions with Andy Constan, Rob Arnott, Kai Wu, Ben Hunt, Rupert Mitchell, Meb Faber and others, the episode connects ideas across macro, markets, AI, credit cycles and valuation. The conversation focuses on timeless investing principles investors can apply today, including how to evaluate expert opinions, how AI may reshape markets and jobs, what defines a true market bubble, why international stocks may be benefiting from global fiscal spending, and why the best opportunities in markets often come after long periods of underperformance.Topics covered in this episodeHow to evaluate expert opinions during major market events and filter signal from noiseAndy Constan’s framework for judging credibility based on experience and confidenceWhy charts showing markets rising after wars are often misleading data miningThe difference between believing in AI technology and believing AI stocks are good investmentsHow AI could both replace and augment human work through the task based structure of jobsRob Arnott’s definition of a market bubble using implausible growth assumptionsWhy many technology leaders ultimately fail to justify the expectations priced into their stocksThe difference between software companies whose moat is code and those with durable intangible advantagesHow brand, switching costs, distribution and network effects protect enterprise software companiesWhy AI may be one of the most disruptive technologies in history and what that means for marketsMeb Faber on the myth that the easy money has already been made in international and value stocksThe behavioral challenge of holding unpopular strategies through long periods of underperformanceRob Arnott on why small cap value could outperform large cap growth over the next decadeBen Hunt on the point in every credit cycle when lenders say no moreHow rising costs of capital can trigger boom bust credit cyclesRupert Mitchell on why global equity markets often follow government fiscal spendingThe growing role of international fiscal policy and capital flows in global market leadershipTimestamps00:00 Introduction and the idea behind the weekly Excess Returns recap show03:00 Andy Constan on how to evaluate experts and filter market commentary11:40 Why charts showing markets rising after wars can be misleading17:00 Kai Wu on AI technology versus AI investments and the future of work25:37 Rob Arnott on how to define a market bubble using valuation assumptions29:35 Kai Wu on software moats, intangible assets and enterprise software durability35:31 Rob Arnott on how disruptive AI could be for the global economy39:54 Meb Faber on why the easy money has never been made in markets43:57 Rob Arnott on small cap value versus large cap growth opportunities48:39 Ben Hunt on credit cycles and the moment lenders pull back55:56 Rupert Mitchell on fiscal spending and global equity market performance
• The Question No One Asks | What Great Investors Taught Us About Portfolio and Purpose 23.02.2026 1j 8min

  In this episode, we explore one of the most important but overlooked questions in investing: what is the purpose of your portfolio? Through a series of powerful clips and reflections from Aswath Damodaran, Meb Faber, Ben Hunt, Cullen Roche, Corey Hoffstein, Daniel Crosby, Larry Swedroe, and Wes Gray, we examine how goals like financial freedom, funded contentment, liability driven investing, retirement planning, and multi generational wealth shape the way we invest. This conversation goes beyond beating the market and focuses on preserving and growing wealth, reducing financial stress, aligning money with meaning, and defining what a life well lived truly looks like.Topics covered include:Why the end game of investing matters more than beating the marketPreserving and growing wealth vs trying to get richFreedom as the ultimate goal of financial independenceFunded contentment and what it means to live a life well livedLiability driven investing and matching assets to future needsThe difference between getting rich and staying richNeeds vs desires and understanding marginal utility of wealthRetirement planning and redefining success beyond a numberMulti generational wealth and thinking beyond your own lifetimeThe psychological impact of growing up with or without moneyFinancial freedom, stress reduction, and peace of mindTactical financial goals vs long term purpose driven investingEducation, legacy, and investing in the next generationWhy once you win the game you may not need to keep playingTimestamps:00:00 Aswath Damodaran on preserving and growing wealth10:04 Meb Faber on freedom, contentment, and the hedonic treadmill22:36 Ben Hunt on funded contentment and finding your pack28:23 Cullen Roche on risk as uncertainty of consumption33:25 Corey Hoffstein on liability driven investing and not worrying about money41:50 Daniel Crosby on financial freedom and living life on your own terms47:33 Larry Swedroe on needs vs desires and staying rich55:54 Wes Gray on big blue arrows, tactical goals, and peace of mind
• The Retirement Rule No One Gets Right | Practical Lessons from Bill Bengen 04.01.2026 1j 2min

  In this episode, we discuss our biggest lessons from our interview with Bill Bengen, the creator of the 4 percent rule, and are joined by special guest Ben Tuscai.We explore how one of the most widely cited ideas in retirement planning was developed, how it is often misunderstood, and how it should actually be used in real-world financial planning. The conversation bridges academic research and practical application, digging into safe withdrawal rates, sequence of returns risk, inflation, portfolio construction, and what retirement planning really looks like across decades of uncertainty.• How and why Bill Bengen originally developed the 4 percent rule• What the 4 percent rule actually means and the most common ways it is misapplied• Why inflation and sequence of returns risk are the biggest threats to retirees• The role of diversification and asset allocation in safe withdrawal strategies• How market valuations and bond yields affect sustainable withdrawal rates• Why higher equity exposure can sometimes increase retirement safety• The evolution from the original 4 percent rule to higher safe max withdrawal rates• The psychology of retirement spending and sleeping well during market stress• Planning for longer retirements, early retirement, and rising healthcare costs• U-shaped and rising equity glide paths and why they can improve outcomes• Bucket strategies, cash reserves, and managing withdrawals through bear markets• When spending more or taking less risk makes sense after you have already “won the game”00:00 – Introduction and why the 4 percent rule still matters03:00 – Bill Bengen explains how the 4 percent rule was created06:00 – Worst historical retirement periods and inflation risk10:30 – How advisors actually use the 4 percent rule in practice15:30 – Inflation, bear markets, and sequence of returns risk18:30 – Market valuations, CAPE ratios, and withdrawal rate adjustments23:00 – Financial planning software versus simple rules of thumb27:00 – Sequence risk explained and why retirees can get hurt early31:00 – How diversification increased safe withdrawal rates over time37:00 – Safe max withdrawal rates and optimal equity allocation42:30 – Longer retirements, FIRE, and planning beyond 30 years45:30 – U-shaped and rising equity glide paths explained50:30 – Healthcare costs, longevity risk, and retirement stress testing56:30 – Bucket strategies, cash reserves, and dynamic withdrawalsMain Topics CoveredTimestamps