Yet Another Value Podcast

Afleveringen

• $VEON: a busted EM telecom hiding a 4x? | Samit Umatiya, UIG Funds 01.07.2026 1u 2min

  $VEON trades like a busted emerging-markets telecom, but it owns 84% of Ukraine's Kyivstar and a Pakistani fintech, JazzCash, that already moves 15% of the country's GDP. Samit Umatiya of UIG Funds lays out the sum-of-the-parts case for why the holdco could be worth roughly 4x today's price, and Andrew pushes back hard the whole way: a not-so-storied history of value destruction, a sanctioned 45% shareholder, capital controls, and a long graveyard of telecoms that bungled every growth opportunity they ever had. The result is one long push and pull on whether the upside is real this time.This episode is sponsored by Fiscal.ai. Fiscal.ai is a modern financial data provider for global equities, with a web terminal plus a self-serve API that plugs real-time fundamentals straight into Claude and ChatGPT. Andrew uses it himself. Get 15% off at https://fiscal.ai/yavChapters:00:00 The setup: a sum-of-the-parts EM telecom nobody talks about01:31 Sponsor: Fiscal.ai02:35 Who is Samit Umatiya and what is VEON04:19 Vimpelcom to VEON: the history and the Russia exit08:14 Why is the market asleep on this name?11:31 The sum of the parts: Kyivstar plus four frontier markets13:59 Bridging the EV gap: Andrew's $8B vs the bull's $3B holdco16:36 Valuing a telecom on revenue: the "it's a tech company" case17:54 JazzCash: 15% of Pakistan's GDP, never independently valued21:00 The bridge to ~$1B of free cash flow and a 4x23:40 Organic vs. bolt-on digital growth24:34 Capital controls and getting cash out of the op-cos27:11 What the market is missing: demographics and under-penetration31:09 Starlink: competitor or partner in Ukraine's rebuild?35:31 Digital stickiness and retention37:42 The Kaspi problem: a dominant super app that never re-rated39:25 The AI 1440 strategy and a sovereign-AI moat42:31 Is telecom just structurally bad at capturing growth?45:11 Capital allocation and the next catalyst: a JazzCash spin49:38 The elephant in the room: LetterOne's sanctioned 45% stake54:05 Geopolitical turmoil as a feature, not a flaw55:24 Is that 45% block actually an opportunity?57:09 Founder DNA, CEO Kaan Terzioglu, and the spin-off playbook1:01:56 WrapUIG Funds (Samit Umatiya) - https://uigfunds.comLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
• Pershing Square Challenge 2026 finalists on MSA Safety: a hidden quality compounder? $MSA 30.06.2026 45min

  MSA Safety ($MSA) is the "OG pick and shovel" of worker safety: a century-old, pure-play maker of gas detection and firefighter equipment that the Pershing Square Challenge 2026 finalist team argues is a quality compounder the market is underrating. The bull case has three legs. Portable gas detection is shifting to a recurring, higher-margin subscription model, the "canary" that now sings to the whole worksite instead of just the worker wearing it. A legally mandated SCBA replacement cycle is coming that consensus barely credits. And a 2023 divestiture of product liabilities freed up the roughly 17% of EBIT that used to leave the building every year at a zero return. Base case: a double to about $350 by 2030 from roughly $160 today.EJ Karobath, Craig Larkin and Bob McGrane walk through why MSA's owned-sensor hardware is hard to copy (Blackline got taken private, and its devices break if you drop them), how winning a tier-one fire department like LA or Memphis pulls the surrounding towns along on interoperability, and why 50-plus years of dividend growth and a record $500 million buyback point to real capital-allocation discipline. I push back on the obvious tension: this is a roughly 20x compounder that does not scream alpha, the CFO is guiding mid-single-digit growth, and most of the thesis only pays off in 2028 to 2030. Is the market that inefficient, or is this just a very good business priced about right?Team MSA's pitch deck is linked here: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/gv1oj18pawqrmeq7lai4j/MSA-Pershing-Square-Challenge-vYAVP.pdf?rlkey=8l5vkpkr7r26oi0k7wx5fcf0h&st=g4ow2fxo&dl=0This episode is sponsored by Trata: trata.com. Trata is recorded, anonymized conversations between two buysiders who actually follow the same company, about an hour each, with a full transcript. When you are getting up to speed on a name, there is nothing like hearing two people who research it talk it through. Check them out at trata.com.Chapters:00:00 A quality compounder hiding at a market multiple01:24 Sponsor: Trata02:47 Meet Team MSA: EJ, Craig and Bob05:50 Why they picked MSA: an underfollowed, simple business07:50 What MSA is: the "OG pick and shovel" of worker safety10:24 The three segments, and why detection leads11:51 Fixed vs portable gas detection13:15 The subscription shift: the canary that sings to the whole worksite16:40 The moat: durability, owned sensors and a long replacement runway17:21 Market share, and why Blackline got taken private21:32 Fire safety: the G1 and the mandated SCBA replacement cycle23:38 Valuation: a double to ~$350 by 2030, and the reverse DCF25:43 My pushback: a 20x compounder that doesn't scream alpha27:00 Why management sandbags the connected and SCBA upside28:46 A stock for the patient: the J-curve and the long horizon31:47 Primary research: site visits, IR access and r/firefighting36:18 Becoming a tech company: 40% of engineers now in software38:10 The tier-one halo: win LA or Memphis, win the region42:08 Capital allocation: the liability divestiture, dividends and a $500M buyback44:13 Wrap: where to find the team and the deckTeam MSA (Columbia Business School): pitch deck linked aboveLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
• $FOX dropped 25% buying $ROKU. Is the market wrong? | Accrued Interest 28.06.2026 1u

  Fox's stock is down about 25% since it agreed to buy Roku for $22 billion, and the market has decided the deal is a blunder. Simeon McMillan of Accrued Interest thinks the market is wrong. His case: Roku controls roughly 44% of how Americans reach streaming on the big screen, about 3x the next platform, so Fox just bought the "front door" to streaming and around 100 million connected TVs in North America. Look under the surface and the deal is closer to 16-17x free cash flow once you account for Roku's barely-tapped ad levers and synergies.We get into the homepage that became the new "Netflix homepage," why Fox keeps making the smartest M&A bets in media, the Tubi sleeper Simeon is most bullish on, why he loves Roku but is bearish on Spotify, and why Google and Meta look like "true value stocks" to him. I push back hard on whether Fox plus Roku is really better than Roku staying neutral Switzerland for every bidder.See Simeon's post on Fox / Roku here: https://www.accruedint.com/p/the-strait-of-roku-how-fox-seizedThis episode is sponsored by my upcoming AI webinar with AlphaSense.The AI landscape has never been more crowded or more confusing. Everyone's telling you to adopt AI, but almost nobody's telling you which tools actually give you an edge. I'm sitting down with Dave Wang of Wall Street Prompt and Ben Collins of AlphaSense to break down the modern AI stack for investors, from horizontal platforms like OpenAI and Claude to agentic workflows and finance-specific intelligence tools, and where each one actually fits in a real research process.Register here: https://www.alpha-sense.com/resources/webinars/choosing-your-ai-stack-a-framework-for-institutional-investors/?utm_source=pt_YAVP&utm_medium=sponsored&utm_campaign=SWB_DG_06-25-26_IMP-GENAI_CORPFS_YAVP-AI-SolutionsChapters:00:00 What's coming: Fox-Roku, plus Spotify, Google and Meta01:08 Sponsor: my AI webinar with AlphaSense02:24 Guest intro: Simeon McMillan, Accrued Interest03:05 The Fox-Roku deal and why Simeon thinks it makes sense05:30 Roku as the "Strait of Hormuz" of streaming (44% of viewing)06:25 Why Fox has the smartest M&A team in media07:55 Buying the "front door": ~100M connected TVs10:03 The Roku homepage as the new "Netflix homepage"13:44 The ad-sales levers hiding under the multiple16:31 Valuation: 22x EBITDA, ~16-17x free cash flow with synergies18:01 My pushback: Fox down 25%, winner's curse, thin synergies19:35 The real risk of staying pure-play (Viacom, Paramount)24:51 Rebundling and why everyone's partnered up by 202826:08 Is Fox+Roku actually better, or could anyone have bought this?28:01 Cord-cutting, YouTube TV, and the Disney bloody nose32:07 The Fox bet Simeon likes most: Tubi38:30 Why now? The 50% streaming inflection and a shrinking buyer pool42:21 Does AI slop break or boost the distribution thesis?48:06 The gotcha: bullish Roku, bearish Spotify (the Pokemon theory of media)52:22 Google and Meta as "true value stocks"56:55 The complexity discount, Meta's enterprise tools, and founder control59:13 Wrap and where to find Accrued InterestSimeon McMillan / Accrued Interest: https://accruedinterest.substack.comLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
• June 2026 Random Ramblings 25.06.2026 38min

  SpaceX is buying Cursor for ~$60B, and one of the early backers was SBF. So was a convicted fraudster also the greatest VC of all time? That's where June's random ramblings start. From there: why I've flipped from AI doom toward AI as a force multiplier, whether deep subject-matter expertise gets MORE valuable as the world fills with AI slop, why legacy brands (KPMG, CBS, People) might actually gain power in an AI world, why "my edge is a long time horizon" is usually a tell for underperformance, and the cracks showing up in Polymarket and prediction markets.This episode is sponsored by my upcoming AI webinar with AlphaSense. The AI landscape has never been more crowded or more confusing. Everyone's telling you to adopt AI, but almost nobody's asking the harder question: which tools actually give you an edge?I'm sitting down with Dave Wang of Wall Street Prompt and Ben Collins of AlphaSense to break down the modern AI stack for investors, from horizontal platforms like OpenAI and Claude to agentic workflows and finance-specific intelligence tools, and where each one actually fits in a real research process. If you're trying to build an AI-enabled workflow that sharpens your judgment rather than replacing it, you won't want to miss this.Join us on June 25th - register now: https://www.alpha-sense.com/resources/webinars/choosing-your-ai-stack-a-framework-for-institutional-investors/?utm_source=pt_YAVP&utm_medium=sponsored&utm_campaign=SWB_DG_06-25-26_IMP-GENAI_CORPFS_YAVP-AI-SolutionsChapters:00:00 What's on the menu this month02:05 Sponsor: my AI webinar with AlphaSense03:22 Was SBF the greatest VC of all time? (Cursor, SpaceX, Anthropic)09:48 Do any frauds or blowups hide assets this valuable? (GGP, Enron, EOG)11:42 Why I flipped from AI doom toward AI as a force multiplier13:41 Why AI rewards the creative, and the top 0.1% problem16:18 AI slop and the rising return on deep expertise (Knicks, ABVX)20:12 KPMG's hallucinated AI report and secondhand hallucinations21:57 Does brand get MORE valuable in an AI world? (CBS, People, TMZ, ChatGPT licensing)25:14 Why "my edge is a long time horizon" is usually a lie28:50 Forced selling, diamond hands, and the seven-years-of-underperformance letter32:02 My three-year rule32:53 Polymarket, MicroStrategy, and the limits of the rulebook35:00 Prediction markets are reflexive: why nobody's waging "Polymarket wars" yet37:36 WrapLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
• $YOU.L: is YouGov really an AI loser? | Jonathan Cohen, Zipperline Capital 21.06.2026 1u 6min

  The market has decided YouGov ($YOU.L) is an AI loser and cut it ~50% in a year. Jonathan Cohen of Zipperline Capital thinks it's an AI winner trading at 6-7x EBITDA, with a 20-year proprietary dataset AI makes more valuable, not less. We spend the first half on the UK as an "emerging market" (corporate governance discounts, why buybacks are finally happening, and why you can never compare UK and US multiples), then go deep on YouGov: the panel, the moat, synthetic data, and why the company is cancelling its dividend to buy back stock.This episode is sponsored by my upcoming AI webinar with AlphaSense.The AI landscape has never been more crowded — or more confusing. Everyone's telling you to adopt AI, but almost nobody's asking the harder question: which tools actually give you an edge?I'm sitting down with Dave Wang of Wall Street Prompt and Ben Collins of AlphaSense to break down the modern AI stack for investors — from horizontal platforms like OpenAI and Claude to agentic workflows and finance-specific intelligence tools — and where each one actually fits in a real research process. If you're trying to build an AI-enabled workflow that sharpens your judgment rather than replacing it, you won't want to miss this.Join us on June 25th - register now: https://www.alpha-sense.com/resources/webinars/choosing-your-ai-stack-a-framework-for-institutional-investors/?utm_source=pt_YAVP&utm_medium=sponsored&utm_campaign=SWB_DG_06-25-26_IMP-GENAI_CORPFS_YAVP-AI-SolutionsChapters:00:00 Why YouGov could be the AI winner the market is misreading02:56 Why Jonathan Cohen runs a UK and Europe small/mid-cap book08:01 Why you can never compare UK and US multiples13:08 What UK analyst coverage actually tells you17:37 The shift toward UK buybacks and capital allocation22:00 The "buybacks kill liquidity" myth25:11 What YouGov really is: a proprietary data business31:19 Inside the panel: why people answer, and why retention is the moat36:52 Why the market thinks YouGov is an AI loser38:19 The bull case: why AI makes YouGov more valuable40:55 Synthetic data, and why it breaks46:28 Trust as a moat in a world of AI slop52:27 Pushback: Chegg, Wix, and the real AI losers56:51 Content businesses vs distribution businesses01:00:14 Music, media, and what compounds through disruption01:05:38 ClosingLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
• Alex Roepers on two deep-value special situations: $DCH and $NOMD 15.06.2026 53min

  Alex Roepers of Atlantic Investment Management lays out two deeply cheap special situations: Dauch (DCH) and Nomad Foods (NOMD). In both, management is sending "dark arts" signals (an aggressive CEO payout struck well above the current price, heavy insider buying) that point to an inflection the market hasn't paid for yet. We dig into the $300M merger synergies at Dauch, the auto-cycle and leverage risk, the governance red flags, the private-label threat to Nomad's frozen-food brands, and whether the European discount on both is real or just doldrums.This episode is sponsored by AlphaSense. Join Andrew, Dave Wang of Wall Street Prompts, and Ben Collins of AlphaSense for a webinar breaking down the modern AI stack for investors: where horizontal platforms, agentic workflows, and finance-specific tools each actually fit in a real research process. Recording June 16, live June 25. Register here: https://www.alpha-sense.com/resources/webinars/choosing-your-ai-stack-a-framework-for-institutional-investors/?utm_source=pt_YAVP&utm_medium=sponsored&utm_campaign=SWB_DG_06-25-26_IMP-GENAI_CORPFS_YAVP-AI-SolutionsDisclosure: long DCH and NOMDChapters:0:00 Two cheap special situations and the "dark arts" setup1:10 Sponsor: AlphaSense and the AI-stack-for-investors webinar2:29 Alex Roepers, Atlantic Investment Management3:04 Dauch ($DCH): the GKN, Melrose and Dowlais backstory7:05 Why Atlantic made $DCH a core position at ~$69:03 The governance knock: a company named after a sub-1% CEO13:42 Dark arts: the PSU grant that only pays above $1215:11 Underwriting the $300M merger synergies18:13 Leverage, capital allocation and the path to buybacks24:42 The auto cycle and why 5x free cash flow caps the downside29:12 Nomad Foods ($NOMD): the frozen-food bull case33:14 Nomad by the numbers: 5.5x earnings, 7% yield35:39 The bear case: private label, Aldi and a new CEO39:21 Would Martin Franklin ever sell?41:22 Dividend or buyback at these levels?43:00 Is Franklin distracted by APi Group?45:27 The kitchen-sink reset and a fall investor day47:37 "Addback city": cleaning up the earnings number50:02 The European discount: real or imagined?Links:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
• Adam May on $ABVX's blowout data and subsequent stock crash 10.06.2026 1u 13min

  Abivax posted maybe the best ulcerative colitis data anyone's seen, then crashed 60% on a cancer signal Adam May argues is statistical noise. We dig into whether $ABVX is now a mispriced takeout: the maintenance efficacy that beat Rinvoq, how the scary "seven cancer cases" collapse to two, the blackbox question, the Crohn's skew, and the part two safety data due within weeks. Then a quick look at Nectar (NKTR), its alopecia areata data, and the Eli Lilly lawsuit.This episode is sponsored by AlphaSense, and specifically Andrew's upcoming AI webinar with them: breaking down the modern AI stack for investors with Dave Wang (Wall Street Prompts) and Ben Collins (AlphaSense). Goes live June 25. Register here. Chapters:00:00 Intro and disclosure (long ABVX and NKTR)01:03 Sponsor: AlphaSense AI webinar for investors02:33 The biotech "GOAT" returns03:33 Abivax setup: induction vs maintenance, the stakes06:38 The bar: clinical remission and Rinvoq10:14 Blowout maintenance data, and endoscopic remission that doubles Rinvoq14:23 The data drops, then a 60% crash16:31 The cancer scare, taken apart case by case24:45 Why it's statistical noise: mechanism, clustering, base rates28:50 Adverse-event capture and the phase 2 safety database33:57 Bear case: hasn't the market had time to digest this?38:00 Blackbox or no blackbox, and does it matter at $10040:32 The Crohn's readout and the skew45:36 M&A: timing, the new CCO, what Adam wants them to do47:38 Part two safety data due within weeks54:46 The cash question: secondary vs sale57:49 Nectar: strong data, then an unexplained selloff59:54 The Eli Lilly lawsuit and the jury-trial angle01:03:26 Ox40 read-through and the Q32 Bio overhang01:06:07 Most mispriced pick, targets, and the CEO's Cincor parallel01:12:10 WrapLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/Disclosure: Long ABVX and NKTR
• Pershing Square Challenge 2026 finalists pitch Amadeus $AMS | the toll booth on global travel 04.06.2026 52min

  Amadeus $AMS is down roughly 25% because the market lumped it in with the SaaS names AI is supposed to gut. Team Amadeus, Pershing Square Challenge finalists, argue it's the opposite: a deterministic, mission-critical monopoly that AI makes more valuable, not less. We dig into the 50-year-old systems that planes literally can't take off without, why the GDS is the wrong job for an LLM, the Sabre and Constellation Software angle, and what the stock is actually worth.Full pitch deck (~75 pages): https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/5bwef8mz2kplx2sub598w/PSC_AMS_LONG_vSent.pdf?rlkey=x5g0v7t1qk8hpg00ewix95hn3&st=rq9nzl4h&dl=0This episode is brought to you by Trata. Trata is two investors who get on an anonymized call and talk through the real issues in a stock, bull-to-bull, bear-to-bear, or just getting up to speed. If you like this podcast, you'll like Trata. Check it out at trata.comChapters:00:00 Why Amadeus landed on my radar01:00 Sponsor: Trata02:39 Meet Team Amadeus (Pershing Square Challenge finalists)05:20 What Amadeus actually does: the toll booth on global travel09:07 The AI fear that broke the stock11:13 Is it actually cheap? Valuation and stock comp15:26 Why Amadeus tops the AI-risk matrix16:32 Air IT Solutions: the SAP of airlines22:59 The Microsoft AI director who bet against AI eating this24:15 Tech-debt pushback and the JFK field trip29:09 Sabre, Constellation Software, and the monopoly complaint33:16 How Amadeus won share during COVID34:21 The air-distribution network effect35:22 Why LLMs are the wrong tool for the GDS39:50 The $1B biometrics acquisition43:03 Google, Gemini, and the uptime math45:47 Fair value and the bull case nobody's pricing49:01 Amadeus as an AI beneficiary51:02 Closing thoughtsLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
• May 2026 Random Ramblings 31.05.2026 27min

  A market that refuses to go down, AI coming for the investor's job, and MicroStrategy quietly becoming the entire preferred-equity market. Andrew's monthly ramble across five things he can't stop thinking about: stretched memory valuations, a hyper-concentrated tape, mental flexibility, and the cycle nobody believes can break.This episode is sponsored by Fiscal.ai. Modern financial data for global equities, with a self-serve API that plugs fundamentals and prices straight into your LLM and updates within minutes of earnings, not days. Get 15% off at https://fiscal.ai/yavChapters:00:00 Five things I'm rambling on this month01:58 Sponsor: Fiscal.ai03:16 "We'll never have problems again": a market that won't quit04:56 Energy and oil: the worries the market keeps shrugging off06:00 AI, space plays, and stretched memory valuations09:54 Five stocks, half the S&P's gains10:51 Is AI coming for the investor's job?13:08 The counterpoint: 200-IQ machines and more fragile markets16:10 Mental flexibility: why your old letters predicted your AI take20:04 Why "the cycle is dead" always worries me21:42 MicroStrategy is the preferred-equity market now24:45 The CFO signal: leaving a big company for a small oneLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
• Pershing Square Challenge 2026 third place: Celsius $CELH 28.05.2026 44min

  Celsius trades at ~20x earnings while growing ~18% a year, cheaper than Monster (~34x) and even Coke (~25x) despite faster growth. The Pershing Square Challenge third-place team makes the long case for $CELH: the market is sleeping on the Alani Nu acquisition, and their 500-person proprietary survey says the brand loyalty is real. Andrew pushes back hard on the Costco/Kirkland private-label threat, the heavy reliance on Pepsi distribution, and whether energy drinks are just the next "protein" fad waiting to be disrupted.CELH pitch deck: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/rsyotzf7g2efkj9rfmg23/AHHk4_h_6CU12R-dTrAOtH4?rlkey=664lkpggv77rwkzh3rh78826q&e=2&st=0s4tiwjy&dl=0This episode is sponsored by Trata. Trata is buy-siders interviewing each other; it is the fastest way I know to ramp up on a name. See a sample here: https://www.trata.com/celhChapters:0:00 Why energy drinks (and Celsius) are a passion1:13 Sponsor: Trata2:46 Meet team Celsius, third place at the Pershing Square Challenge4:23 Why they picked Celsius for the pitch7:19 The setup: ~20x earnings, ~18% growth, an underpriced Alani8:47 Why the market is discounting Celsius10:09 The Costco/Kirkland private-label crash, and the rebuttal12:26 Andrew's pushback: don't loyal buyers just order in bulk?16:14 The proprietary 500-person survey18:48 Distribution vs. brand: is the survey actually a bear case?22:31 The Pepsi relationship: Rockstar, the 11% stake, and the risk26:08 The Alani acquisition: sugar high or smart capital allocation?31:24 Are energy drinks the next protein? The fad debate38:40 Valuation: the Coke and Monster arbitrage43:38 Wrap-upLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
• Pershing Square Challenge 2026 runner-ups on Baker Hughes $BKR 25.05.2026 46min

  Team Baker Hughes, the second-place finishers in the 2026 Pershing Square Challenge, discuss their Baker Hughes thesis and why they believe the market hasn't fully appreciated the company's evolution from a cyclical oil field services business. They discuss how the long runway for the IET business, and they back their thesis up with 30+ expert calls, a trip to the Western Turbine Users conference, and a sum-of-the-parts case that leans on growth, not multiple expansion.See the team's full pitch deck hereThis episode is sponsored by Trata. Check them out at https://www.trata.comChapters0:00 Intro and sponsor2:21 Meet Team Baker Hughes4:39 Why they backed into Baker Hughes6:56 Watching the stock run from $45 to $65 mid-pitch7:21 The differentiated work: 30+ expert calls and the turbine conference8:27 The two businesses: oil field services vs. industrial energy technology10:10 What the market is missing on the IET transformation12:56 Is this just another cycle? The chart hit $65 three times13:59 Why this gas turbine cycle is structurally different17:01 AI as a distraction: onshoring and electrification17:51 The installed base flywheel and recurring service revenue21:13 The three turbine segments and the supply chain squeeze23:34 Honoring 70-year customers vs. mercenary pricing27:44 Valuation: a sum-of-the-parts story, not a multiple story29:36 The Chart acquisition: can they really double their money?34:56 The GE merger history and the GE Aero Alliance today38:27 Management, alignment, and insider ownership42:41 The C3 AI anecdote and wrap-upLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
• Pershing Square Challenge 2026 winners on DoorDash $DASH 22.05.2026 57min

  The winners of the Pershing Square Challenge 2026 discuss their Doordash pitch, including why the growth story still has room to run (and the 90 primary research calls they made to back up that call). We get into durable US restaurant growth, why new verticals and international could inflect to profitability earlier than the street models, the underappreciated opex leverage, their proprietary Wolt case study, the Tony Xu bet, and why they think the Citrini AI-agent thesis on DoorDash is overblown.This episode is sponsored by Trata. Check out their DASH transcript at https://www.trata.com/dashTeam DASH presentation: ZK's LinkedInAaron's LinkedInElliot's LinkedInChapters00:00 The Pershing Square Challenge and team DoorDash01:14 Sponsor: Trata02:50 Meet the team: ZK, Elliot, and Aaron05:40 Why they picked DoorDash out of the screen10:10 The bull case in three parts11:20 US restaurant growth: still the middle innings?13:20 Demographics as a tailwind17:50 Order frequency and the China comp21:00 Valuation: $70B cap, adjusted EBITDA, and the path to $32025:35 The real downside: competition, Amazon, bundled memberships29:50 The ~90 primary research calls33:35 New verticals and the grocery economics38:10 A DoorDash bet or a Tony Xu bet?41:40 Management comp and alignment43:45 International: the Wolt case study and Deliveroo47:00 The tech-stack reinvestment cycle51:00 Sylvie makes her podcast debut51:20 Citrini and the AI-agent threat56:20 WrapLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
• Why $PSUS deserves a premium to NAV and $PS deserves a premium multiple | Marlton's James Elbaor 19.05.2026 1u 5min

  James Elbaor of Marlton makes the case that $PSUS will trade at a premium to NAV instead of the typical closed-end fund discount and that $PS will ultimately trade at a premium multiple to peers like Blackstone, KKR, Apollo and Carlyle given its lean team and advantaged fee structure. We push on every part of that, including whether Ackman's portfolio is just an expensive S&P hug, why London still doesn't fully credit him, and whether Spark gives Pershing a real path into Universal Music Group.Sponsor: Fiscal.ai. Real-time fundamental data for global equities, plus one of the leading data connectors for Claude and ChatGPT. Get 15% off at fiscal.ai/yavChapters:0:00 Intro and the divergent thesis1:05 Sponsor: Fiscal.ai2:20 Marlton's lens on closed-end funds and UK trusts5:00 $PSUS: scale, structure, why it's already the largest US equity CEF7:30 The case for a premium to NAV instead of a 15 to 20% discount12:30 $PSUS vs $PSH London: who can own what, and why it matters15:20 The 40-Act book and Ackman's macro hedging history17:50 Track record with and without the COVID hedge22:00 Why London still does not fully credit Bill23:50 "But isn't it just Google, Amazon, Meta?" — the index-hug pushback26:00 Can Pershing get private assets (Spark, HHH-style deals) into $PSUS29:00 $PSCM valuation: 30x FRE and the bridge from $300M to $550 to $590M36:00 Why $PSCM should deserve a premium multiple to KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Blue Owl42:30 Preferred performance fees and why the income statement is cleaner45:30 Alignment: insiders own 85%+48:00 Permanent capital vs six-year "permanent" capital at the alts49:40 50 employees at $PSCM vs 2,200 at Carlyle52:00 Keyman risk on Bill and Ryan Israel's role58:30 What's next: $UMG, Vincent Bolloré, and Spark as the vehicle1:02:00 WrapLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
• $DRVN Cruising through the Driven Brands thesis | Kyle Mowery GrizzlyRock Capital 14.05.2026 1u 4min

  Driven Brands ($DRVN) puked on a February accounting restatement. Kyle Mowery (GrizzlyRock Capital) walks through why Take 5 remains a crown jewel and could be worth the entire EV of the company (making the franchise and autoglass businesses a free option). We also dig into how the April and May 8-Ks took the scary left-tail risks off the table, why Roark Capital (65% owner) might run a sale process later this year, and the bear case (corporate cost bloat, weakness in the non-Take-5 brands).disclaimer: Andrew is long DRVNKyle's late 2024 DRVN podcast: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/grizzlyrock-capitals-kyle-mowery?utm_source=publication-search[00:00:00] Intro and disclosures[00:03:23] What is Driven Brands today[00:05:14] Why the car wash divestiture sold so cheap[00:09:19] Why Take 5 is the crown jewel[00:11:15] EV risk and the US ICE car park[00:13:21] Franchisee demand and unit growth[00:15:31] Take 5 vs. Valvoline[00:18:13] The addbacks problem[00:20:57] Inside the accounting restatement[00:23:22] The cash adjustment[00:28:50] The ATI revenue recognition issue[00:30:12] Reading the April and May 8-Ks[00:32:40] Debating adjusted EBITDA[00:34:55] Corporate cost bloat[00:37:54] Is this fraud? No[00:39:49] Weakness in the non-Take-5 brands[00:43:45] Sum-of-the-parts: Take 5 covers the debt[00:46:30] Why public markets misprice the franchise brands[00:48:04] Durability of franchise cash flows[00:50:14] Timing the resolution[00:53:26] Roark Capital's strategic options[00:57:40] Labor Day or Halloween?[01:00:00] Capital cycle stories Kyle's watching[01:03:02] Chinese supply pressure on industrialsLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
• $LBTYK: can Liberty Global finally spin to win? | Stock Spin-Off Investing's Rich Howe 10.05.2026 53min

  Rich Howe of Stock Spin-Off Investing makes the bull case for Liberty Global ($LBTYK): cheap on a sum-of-the-parts, an upcoming Ziggo spin to crystallize value, and a hidden ventures portfolio. Andrew pushes back hard on Malone, Fries, and Liberty's long history of value that never quite shows up.Chapters:00:00 Introduction and Liberty Global thesis01:44 Sponsor: AlphaSense earnings season04:49 Rich's bull case for $LBTYK07:46 Andrew on management credibility09:05 Why a spin can unlock value11:57 Buybacks: are they actually working?15:19 Debt structure and the deleveraging path17:14 Operational deterioration risk19:52 Ziggo's subscriber losses24:09 Malone and Fries: the track record27:46 The Liberty Global board problem31:22 The growth investment portfolio32:59 Why Rich haircuts the portfolio36:43 Formula E and venture exposure38:35 The empire-building risk40:55 Virgin Media O2 restructuring42:11 Other spin-off setups worth a look43:40 Ziff Davis sum-of-the-parts46:52 Andrew on distressed SaaS ideas48:22 Lionsgate and media consolidation51:53 Lionsgate as an acquisition targetLinks:Yet Another Value Blog: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comStock Spin-Off Investing (Rich Howe): https://www.stockspinoffinvesting.comLegal disclaimer: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant: https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
• $STVN: are oral GLP-1s really a death blow? | Aurelian Research's Leo Trudel 05.05.2026 39min

  Stevanato (STVN) makes the glass vials and pre-filled syringes that GLP-1 drugs ship in. The stock has sold off on fears that oral GLP-1s replace injectables, but Aurelian Research's Leo Trudel argues that's a misread: biologics demand keeps growing, the mix is shifting toward higher-margin "high-value solutions," and switching costs in regulated drug delivery are real. We dig into the bull case, the oral-vs-injectable debate, capacity and oversupply risk, capital allocation, regulatory lock-in, and what would change Leo's view.[00:00:00] Podcast intro and guest welcome[00:03:08] Stevanato's business model: vials, syringes, high-value solutions[00:03:51] COVID boom and the destocking cycle[00:06:39] Why the stock sold off and what it implies[00:07:34] Market expectations vs. reality[00:11:55] Margin expansion from mix shift[00:14:40] Oral vs. injectable GLP-1s: the real debate[00:17:30] Why oral and injectable aren't interchangeable[00:19:44] Capacity additions and oversupply risk[00:21:00] Biologics demand beyond GLP-1[00:23:04] Management trust and capital allocation[00:26:52] Regulatory lock-in: the real moat[00:29:42] What could break the bull case[00:30:53] Future capex and where it goes[00:32:41] Industry structure and M&A outlook[00:34:37] AI tools in investment research[00:38:09] Closing thoughts and Leo's stanceLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p...Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
• Can Sprout Social Survive the SaaSpocalypse with Pernas Research's Deiya Pernas $SPT 30.04.2026 50min

  In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker speaks with Deiya Pernas of Pernas Research about Sprout Social (SPT) and the broader SaaS selloff. They examine the company’s platform, competitive positioning, and whether the market is mispricing its long-term potential. The discussion covers API complexity, integrations, AI risks, and shifting perceptions across SaaS. They also address valuation, stock-based compensation concerns, and possible catalysts including governance changes or acquisition interest. The conversation closes with a wider look at the so-called SaaS apocalypse and where opportunities may exist.____________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Introduction and guest overview[00:03:59] Sprout Social business model explained[00:05:38] Market mispricing and SaaS selloff[00:09:53] Fundamentals versus market perception debate[00:12:05] SaaS valuation reset discussion[00:13:45] Platform capabilities and customer usage[00:15:16] API complexity and competitive advantage[00:18:58] Compliance risks and AI concerns[00:21:48] Platform competition from social networks[00:23:50] AI disruption and company adaptation[00:27:07] Systems of record skepticism discussed[00:30:00] Integrations and switching costs impact[00:31:01] Stock-based compensation concerns raised[00:32:01] Dilution risks and sustainability issues[00:33:48] Governance changes as potential catalyst[00:35:49] Management turnover and uncertainty[00:36:46] Acquisition potential discussed[00:38:59] Broader SaaS opportunities and risks[00:42:11] SaaS durability versus AI disruption[00:45:36] Lack of insider buying observations[00:46:55] Criticism of board incentivesLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
• Chadd Garcia drills into LandBridge's value 26.04.2026 1u 1min

  In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker is joined by returning guest Chad Garcia to discuss LandBridge and the broader Permian Basin ecosystem. Chad outlines how land-based royalty models differ from traditional energy investments, highlighting surface rights, produced water, and infrastructure as key drivers. The conversation covers LandBridge’s growth through pore space expansion, strategic land acquisitions, and its relationship with WaterBridge. They also examine valuation differences versus peers like TPL, the role of data centers in West Texas, and why the market may be underestimating future cash flow. The episode concludes with an update on Secure Energy’s acquisition and its implications for the waste infrastructure thesis.____________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Introduction and Chad Garcia returns[00:04:07] LandBridge overview and investment thesis[00:05:26] History of land royalty businesses[00:08:57] TPL business model breakdown[00:13:21] LandBridge business and revenue streams[00:16:11] Valuation comparison versus TPL[00:17:21] Market skepticism and short thesis[00:20:59] Incremental pore space growth potential[00:24:27] Sponsor ownership and insider alignment[00:26:50] Structure and related party concerns[00:29:12] Acquisition strategy and value creation[00:31:30] Strategic land positioning explained[00:36:01] Competitive advantages in pore space[00:39:37] Data center opportunity in Permian[00:43:38] Challenges to data center deployment[00:46:42] Valuation framework and growth outlook[00:48:36] LandBridge versus WaterBridge comparison[00:49:31] Secure Energy acquisition overview[00:51:06] Waste thesis validation discussion[00:55:35] Reaction to acquisition valuation[00:58:16] Market education still ongoing[01:01:12] Closing thoughts and disclaimerLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
• Investing in the SaaSpocalypse with Heller House's Marcelo Lima 23.04.2026 1u 6min

  In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker speaks with Marcelo Lima of Heller House Capital about the "SaaSpocalypse". Marcelo shares his perspective from years of following software companies, arguing that fears around AI disrupting SaaS are overblown. They examine whether AI tools threaten incumbents like Salesforce or instead strengthen them through faster product development. The discussion covers valuation compression, enterprise software moats, customer behavior shifts, and the role of AI as infrastructure. Andrew also raises concerns about disruption risks, insider signals, and workforce changes, leading to a debate on whether this moment represents risk or opportunity.Marcelo's memos on softwareMemo 1: https://mailchi.mp/hellerhs/opportunities-in-softwareMemo 2: https://mailchi.mp/hellerhs/opportunities-in-software-part-ii_________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Introduction and SaaS apocalypse topic[00:02:24] Disclaimer and setup discussion[00:03:26] SaaS selloff and market reaction[00:07:58] AI disruption concerns raised[00:10:09] Valuation compression and risk pricing[00:14:24] Salesforce adoption timing shifts[00:16:09] Incumbents’ advantage and feedback loops[00:20:57] Headless software and interface changes[00:22:29] Backend value versus frontend control[00:27:02] Historical analogy with Slack usage[00:29:22] Insider buying skepticism discussion[00:34:36] Power law dynamics in SaaS[00:35:53] Company earnings and AI impact[00:36:36] Adobe Lightroom AI example[00:40:11] Bloomberg replacement with AI tools[00:42:25] AI tooling limitations and costs[00:46:02] Bugs and reliability challenges[00:47:24] Preferred SaaS companies discussed[00:51:28] Stock compensation and dilution concerns[00:55:59] AI productivity and hiring dynamics[00:56:27] Opposing view on engineer demand[00:59:16] AI increasing work intensity[01:00:23] Enterprise software reliability moat[01:04:49] AI as infrastructure layerLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
• Why DraftKings might not be a big gamble with Aganju's Tolu Bukola $DKNG 19.04.2026 57min

  In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker speaks with Tolu Bukola from Aganju Capital about DraftKings and the growing threat from prediction markets. Tolu explains DraftKings’ business model, highlighting both sports betting and the expanding iGaming segment. The discussion focuses heavily on regulatory risks, including how prediction markets operate and why they may face legal challenges. They examine potential outcomes if regulation changes, how market share could shift, and what that means for DraftKings’ long-term economics. The episode also covers valuation perspectives and the role of government intervention in shaping the industry’s future.You can see Tolu's DKNG write up here___________________________________________________[00:00:00] Podcast introduction and guest overview[00:00:33] DraftKings and prediction markets focus[00:03:21] DraftKings business and history explained[00:05:26] Prediction markets model and mechanics[00:07:33] Market reaction and investor behavior[00:09:14] iGaming growth and profitability discussion[00:11:09] iGaming competition and market structure[00:14:55] DraftKings execution and product strengths[00:16:02] Prediction markets as key risk[00:17:34] Product appeal and investor bias[00:18:57] Betfair comparison and market share[00:20:20] Cultural shifts and trading behavior[00:22:12] Early impact on sportsbook data[00:23:12] Market share uncertainty discussion[00:24:38] Government incentives and regulation[00:26:25] Why Betfair remained small[00:29:31] Pricing differences and fee structure[00:31:32] Complexity of sportsbook operations[00:32:38] Regulatory advantages of prediction markets[00:34:43] Insider trading and integrity concerns[00:37:04] Legal paths and regulatory outcomes[00:39:17] CFTC role and enforcement issues[00:41:37] Timing risks and market share shift[00:42:56] Long-term investment thesis[00:44:23] Valuation framework and upside case[00:48:40] DraftKings competing in prediction markets[00:49:55] Parlay economics and profitability[00:51:24] Regulatory risks beyond prediction markets[00:53:30] Government incentives and taxation[00:54:24] Supreme Court outlook and legal stance[00:55:56] Native American tribes involvementLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/