Current Account with Clay Lowery

Afleveringen

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  Episode 154 – The Long and Winding Road — EU Competitiveness and Basel III  03.08.2026 29min

  Can regulators promote growth and competitiveness while preserving financial stability? In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by IIF's Kyle Grieser, Director, Regulatory Affairs, and Miguel Lobo, Policy Advisor, to examine two major developments shaping the future of banking regulation: the ongoing implementation of Basel III and the European Commission’s new banking competitiveness agenda. They discuss how post-crisis reforms have strengthened the banking sector, why policymakers are increasingly focused on regulatory simplification and modernization, and what the latest proposals could mean for banks in the United States, Europe, and the United Kingdom. The conversation also explores whether global regulators are finally approaching the end of the Basel III process and what comes next for cross-border regulatory alignment and growth. Programming note — Current Account will return in September after a summer break. This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.
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  Episode 153 – The Show Must Go On — Recapping the 2026 NATO Summit 27.07.2026 30min

  As geopolitical tensions reshape security priorities across the Atlantic, defense has become an increasingly important economic and financial issue. In this episode of Current Account, Clay Lowery is joined by Dr. Torrey Taussig, Director of and a Senior Fellow at the Transatlantic Security Initiative in the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, to unpack the outcomes of the recent NATO Summit in Ankara and what they reveal about the future of the alliance. They discuss growing pressure on European allies to increase defense spending, questions surrounding U.S. leadership and commitment to NATO, and how governments are translating new funding pledges into real military capabilities. The conversation also explores the role of private capital in supporting defense investment, the lessons from conflicts in Ukraine and Iran, and the challenges facing NATO as it navigates an increasingly uncertain security environment. This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.
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  Episode 152 – Jaw-Jaw or War-War? — An Update on Iran 20.07.2026 32min

  The conflict involving Iran has entered another period of uncertainty, with diplomatic efforts faltering and regional tensions rising once again. In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by Hal Brands, professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and columnist for Bloomberg Opinion, to assess the latest developments and what they could mean for the Middle East and beyond. They discuss the collapse of recent diplomatic agreements, the strategic objectives of the key parties involved, and how Gulf states are balancing security concerns with efforts to prevent further escalation. The conversation also explores the implications for NATO, global energy markets, and the range of scenarios policymakers and investors should be watching in the weeks ahead. This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.
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  Episode 151 – The Fast and the Furious 5.1 — Fueling Up for Frontier AI 13.07.2026 26min

  As frontier AI models become more powerful, concerns about cybersecurity risks are moving to the forefront of policy and business discussions. In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by Martin Boer, General Manager and Chief Representative for Europe at the IIF, to examine how advances in AI could reshape the cyber threat landscape. They discuss why security experts are paying close attention to the latest generation of AI systems, how financial institutions are preparing for emerging risks, and whether regulators and standard setters can keep pace with the speed of innovation. The conversation also explores the growing debate over AI governance and what future legislation could mean for innovation, competition, and financial stability. This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate, and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.
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  Episode 150 – Putting the Band Back Together - U.S. Trade Policy 06.07.2026 20min

  Trade policy is back at the center of the economic conversation. In this episode of Current Account, Clay examines a series of major developments that could reshape the U.S. trade landscape in the months ahead. He breaks down the administration’s efforts to rebuild broad tariff authority following February's Supreme Court ruling, the growing role of Section 301, Section 122, and Section 232 trade authorities, and what upcoming deadlines could mean for businesses and global markets. Clay also explores the latest uncertainty surrounding the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) after the United States declined to renew the pact for another 16-year term. The discussion offers a practical look at where trade negotiations stand and why tariffs are likely to remain a defining feature of U.S. economic policy. This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.
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  Episode 149 – Beyond the Dot Plot — The Future of the Fed 15.06.2026 26min

  A new era at the Federal Reserve is underway. In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by Dr. Alexis Crow, Partner and Chief Economist at PwC, to examine what leadership under Chair Kevin Warsh could mean for U.S. monetary policy and global markets. As the Fed prepares for its first meeting under new leadership, they explore competing pressures around interest rates, inflation, and political influence, as well as Warsh’s potential push to reshape the Fed’s framework. The conversation also looks at how investors should interpret a more uncertain policy outlook and what shifts in the Fed’s approach could mean for capital flows, the dollar, and financial stability worldwide. This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.
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  Episode 148 – Latin America’s Political Pendulum — Left, Right, Repeat 08.06.2026 34min

  Latin America is entering a pivotal election cycle with major implications for policy, markets, and geopolitics. In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by the IIF's Martín Castellano, Head of Latin America Research, and Paola Figueroa, Head of Frontier Latin America Research, to break down key races in Peru, Colombia, and Brazil. They explore what recent results reveal about political fragmentation, governability, and investor confidence, and assess how domestic pressures are shaping outcomes. The conversation also looks beyond individual elections to examine how the region’s shifting political landscape could influence relationships with the United States and broader global markets in the months ahead. This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.
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  Episode 147 – The Future Is Now — Discussing Leadership in Banking 01.06.2026 24min

  How has banking fundamentally changed over the past decade? In this episode of Current Account, Clay sits down with Christiana Riley, CEO and President of Santander U.S., to reflect on the forces reshaping financial services over the past decade. They explore how banks have adapted to a more volatile environment shaped by higher interest rates, geopolitical tension, and rapid technological change. The conversation examines growing competition from fintech and private capital, shifting expectations around growth and risk, and how global banks are positioning themselves across both established and emerging markets. Looking ahead, they discuss what will define success for financial institutions over the next decade and how leadership priorities are evolving in a more complex landscape. This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.
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  Episode 146 – The Tail End of a Chimera — A Midyear Macroeconomic Update 26.05.2026 38min

  As 2026 reaches its midpoint, the global economic outlook is growing more uncertain. In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by the IIF's Marcello Estevão, Chief Economist and Managing Director, and Jonathan Fortun, Senior Economist, to unpack the latest Capital Flows Report and what it reveals about shifting growth, capital movements, and policy pressures. They examine how geopolitical shocks are compounding existing weaknesses, why the U.S. continues to outperform other economies, and what is driving mixed signals across emerging markets. The conversation also explores how supply chain disruptions are spreading beyond energy and what central banks and policymakers should be watching as risks build heading into the second half of the year. This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.
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  Episode 145 – U.S.-China Summit: Status, Stability, and Guardrails 18.05.2026 30min

  As U.S. and Chinese leaders meet in Beijing, the future of the world’s most important economic relationship hangs in the balance. In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by Evan Medeiros, a professor in the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University and former director at the White House National Security Council, to assess what is at stake in the latest round of talks and what each side hopes to achieve.  They explore the evolving sources of leverage on both sides, from trade and investment to critical minerals and advanced technologies, and examine the gap between leader level diplomacy and a deeper structural rivalry. The conversation also looks at how domestic politics may constrain any deal and what a more stable U.S.-China relationship could realistically look like in the years ahead. This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.
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  Episode 144 – And They're Off! - Previewing the 2026 U.S. Midterm Elections 04.05.2026 30min

  In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by Stephen Myrow, Managing Partner of Beacon Policy Advisors, to take stock of where the U.S. midterm elections stand six months out - and why they matter far beyond Washington. They discuss why the House has emerged as the central battleground, how the Senate map has quietly become more competitive, and what a potential shift in control could mean for policy, regulation, and executive authority. The political landscape looks very different than it did just six months ago. Clay and Stephen discuss how slipping presidential approval ratings, aggressive redistricting battles, and the fallout from an unpopular war are reshaping the midterm map in real time. They explore why outcomes once considered unlikely are now firmly in play, and what the evolving election dynamics could mean for investors, financial institutions, and international partners. The question is no longer just who wins in November, but how Washington governs the day after. This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.
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  Episode 143 – Enduring the Pain - Strategy, Leverage, and the Cost of Waiting in the U.S.-Iran Conflict 27.04.2026 30min

  In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by Mona Yacoubian, Director of the Middle East Program at CSIS, to unpack what the current phase of negotiations to deescalate the conflict in Iran is really telling us. They discuss how Iran is viewing its leverage, why energy disruption remains central to Tehran’s strategy, and how regional dynamics, particularly involving Lebanon and regional proxy networks, are complicating efforts to contain the conflict. The conversation looks beyond formal negotiations to the roles being played by Hezbollah and other aligned groups, and what their involvement means for escalation risks across the region. Clay and Mona also examine shifting signals from Gulf states, internal debates within Iran’s leadership, and how Washington’s strategy has evolved from direct military action toward blockades and diplomacy. This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.
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  Episode 142 – A Sit and Kick Approach? - Takeaways From the 2026 Spring Meetings 20.04.2026 24min

  In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by Isabelle Mateos y Lago, Chief Economist at BNP Paribas, who shares her perspective from conversations across Spring Meetings and brings years of experience at the intersection of economics, geopolitics, and markets. Together, they assess if discussions around growth, inflation, and monetary policy are being overshadowed by events in the Middle East, and whether the apparent calm in financial markets masks deeper risks tied to energy prices and supply disruptions. The conversation then turns squarely to Europe’s economic trajectory - Clay and Isabelle discuss whether recent momentum on competitiveness and growth has been interrupted by higher energy costs and geopolitical uncertainty, and how Europe is balancing mounting funding needs, from defense spending and energy security to sustainability and technological investment, against already tight fiscal conditions. They also explore whether artificial intelligence can play a meaningful role in supporting productivity and growth, or whether political and labor‑market constraints may limit its macro impact. The episode concludes with a discussion of monetary policy, focusing on how central banks, especially the European Central Bank, are navigating a “wait‑and‑see” environment shaped by geopolitical risk, inflation uncertainty, and market expectations. This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.
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  Episode 141 – It Takes a Village - Risk Management in a Time of Crisis 13.04.2026 27min

  In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by Jayee Koffey, Chief Global Affairs Officer at BNY, to discuss how firms are balancing global efficiency with mounting pressure to localize, de‑risk, and align more closely with national priorities, particularly in strategic sectors such as energy, technology, and finance. The conversation focuses on how companies are embedding geopolitical awareness into everyday decision‑making, rather than treating it as a one‑off crisis response. Clay and Jayee also examine the growing importance - and vulnerability - of financial plumbing, including payments, settlement systems, and market infrastructure, which are increasingly entangled with sanctions policy, national security concerns, and cross‑border fragmentation. Finally, they turn to the rapid buildout of digital and physical infrastructure, from payments modernization and tokenization to AI‑driven data centers. Jayee offers her perspective on what governments can do to remain attractive destinations for long‑term private capital, and whether firms should be concerned that today’s infrastructure boom could create new financial, political, or social fault lines down the road. This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.
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  Episode 140 – Let’s Get This Strait: Iran, Oil, and Global Markets 30.03.2026 28min

  In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by Helima Croft, Managing Director and Head of Global Commodity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, to discuss the conflict in Iran and the resulting market implications as the conflict enters its fourth week. With continued attacks on oil and gas infrastructure across the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz still nearly shut, global markets are confronting the consequences of an energy shock unlike anything seen in decades. Oil remains above $100 a barrel, supply routes are strained, and consumers around the world are feeling the pressure at the pump. To help make sense of the rapidly changing energy picture, they explore why this shock is proving so disruptive, how markets have responded so far, and which regions are most exposed if elevated prices persist. The conversation examines the broader macroeconomic risks: when a tight oil market stops being a short‑term nuisance and begins to bleed into inflation expectations, how long supply disruptions can be sustained before strategic reserves or alternative routes come into play, and what a delayed reopening of the Strait might mean for energy‑importing economies. Clay and Helima also discuss the political dimension, including President Trump’s self‑imposed deadline for a negotiated end to the conflict, and the uncertainty surrounding whether flows through the Strait can ever return to pre‑war levels. This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.
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  Episode 139 – The Plot Thickens: Broader Implications of the War in Iran 23.03.2026 28min

  In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by Richard Fontaine, CEO of the Center for a New American Security, to return to the rapidly evolving conflict in Iran as the fighting enters its third week. What began as a regional confrontation has now produced far‑reaching political and economic consequences, both within Iran and across global markets. Oil remains near $100 per barrel, energy infrastructure in the Gulf has been repeatedly struck, and the killing of another senior Iranian figure has escalated uncertainty around the trajectory of the conflict. Richard provides insight into how Iran’s battlefield setbacks, leadership losses, and retaliatory strikes on Gulf cities are shaping the country’s strategic posture, and how these dynamics are influencing regional partners who once viewed themselves as insulated from direct conflict. The conversation also explores why European countries have declined to join U.S. efforts near the Strait of Hormuz despite their heavy reliance on energy flows through the corridor, and how President Trump’s assertion that the U.S. “doesn’t need help” from NATO is shaping transatlantic tensions. Clay and Richard examine the roles of China and Russia, both of which have publicly expressed support for Iran, and discuss what this alignment reveals about the broader geopolitical relationship among the three countries. The episode concludes with a look at possible scenarios going forward, from prolonged fighting to broader regional spillover, what policymakers should watch as the conflict evolves, and the sentiment within the United States of entering into this conflict. This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.
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  Episode 138 – The War in Iran - Two Weeks In 17.03.2026 33min

  In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by Negar Mortazavi, a Journalist, Political Analyst and Senior Fellow at the Center for International Policy (CIP), for a clear, timely breakdown of the rapidly unfolding conflict in Iran. Less than two weeks after U.S. and Israeli strikes targeted key Iranian government and military sites, retaliatory actions have rippled across the region, impacting energy infrastructure, shipping lanes, and global markets. Negar explains what has transpired since the initial strikes, including the dramatic succession of Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran’s new leader. She discusses the internal political dynamics in Tehran, the likelihood of domestic unrest, and how the Iranian government is framing this moment both internally and regionally. Clay and Negar also examine Iran’s attempts to broaden the conflict geographically and the strategic calculations behind attacks on neighboring countries. The conversation closes with a look ahead: what escalation or de‑escalation could realistically look like, what all of this means for energy markets and geopolitical stability, and what next steps may be in store. This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.
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  Episode 137 – Can Europe Move From Diagnosis to Delivery? 09.03.2026 30min

  In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by Meghan Milloy, the IIF’s Managing Director and Head of Corporate Communications, and Martin Boer, General Manager of the IIF’s Brussels Office and Chief Representative, Europe, to revisit Europe at a moment of mounting complexity - fresh off the IIF’s European Summit in Brussels on March 4-5. Clay reflects on the policy conversations shaping Europe’s agenda; conversations that were already wide‑ranging before a sudden escalation of conflict in the Middle East reshaped the economic backdrop. With crude prices sharply higher and natural gas prices surging, Europe finds itself confronting an immediate energy shock just as it enters the spring with unusually low inventories and reduced access to energy resources. To begin to unpack these developments and the priorities emerging across the continent, Meghan shares insights from her conversations with policymakers and industry leaders at the Summit, highlighting what is top of mind for European stakeholders, from immediate concerns about energy security to the broader challenge of sustaining growth. Martin brings a view from the ground on regulatory simplification efforts, noting that while the topic is gaining attention, meaningful progress remains uneven. He also discusses the rapid rise of defense financing as a central policy priority and how governments, banks, and investors are weighing ways to support defense needs without crowding out other long‑standing commitments. Together, Meghan and Martin reflect on the evolving transatlantic relationship and what recent shifts mean for financial cooperation, especially as Europe and the United States grapple with geopolitical uncertainty, supply chain adjustments, and diverging regulatory pathways. This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.
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  Episode 136 – When Regulatory Simplification Gets Complicated 02.03.2026 37min

  In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by Doug Elliott, Partner at Oliver Wyman, and Andrés Portilla, Managing Director of Regulatory Affairs at the IIF, to take a closer look at the growing global debate over regulatory modernization. Fifteen years after the Global Financial Crisis led policymakers to introduce an expansive set of rules designed to reinforce financial stability, many jurisdictions are now questioning whether the existing framework has become overly complex, duplicative, or limiting to growth. Together, Clay, Doug, and Andrés unpack what modernization really means today, whether it is simplification, de‑layering, right‑sizing, or true deregulation, and why the conversation is gaining urgency across markets. Doug lays out the philosophical and practical forces behind modernization efforts globally, while Andrés discusses the findings of the recent IIF Report, "Modernization and Simplification — Revamping the Global Banking Regulatory Framework" - underscoring how overlapping constraints and diverging national interpretations create unnecessary friction for banks operating across borders. The discussion also turns to the ongoing debate over central bank independence, an issue increasingly intertwined with the regulatory modernization agenda. They examine how these debates differ across jurisdictions, how they may influence regulatory decision‑making, and why a credible, independent regulatory framework remains essential for market confidence. In addition, the conversation assesses the role of global standard setters, including the Financial Stability Board and the Basel Committee, in helping ensure consistency as countries revise their approaches at different paces. Clay and his guests discuss why maintaining coherence across borders is critical, even as national politics, growth priorities, and competitive pressures pull policymakers in different directions. This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.
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  Emergency Episode - Supreme Court Overturns IEEPA Tariff Authority 25.02.2026 57min

  In this emergency episode of Current Account, Clay continues the discussion on tariffs with Chris Padilla from the Brunswick Group after the U.S. Supreme Court on Friday, February 20, ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not provide authority for the president to unilaterally impose tariffs. While much is unknown, the Court made one thing clear: major trade actions require clear legal grounding and a durable policy framework. The episode contains a special web session recorded on Monday, February 23, where Clay is joined by Chris to analyze why the decision is a meaningful marker for markets, trading partners, and corporations and follows up on on Episode 134, where they discuss a variety of United States trade and policy topics including the possible ruling against the use of IEEPA.  The full video session can be found for IIF members here. This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.