Super-Macro Management

Afleveringen

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  Buybacks Fail to Slow Bond Bloodbath | ft. Andy Constan of Damped Spring Advisors 15.09.2026 45min
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  Bonds are a Trap 08.09.2026 28min
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  Warsh just backed himself into a corner 01.09.2026 31min
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  Bessent’s Intervention Arsenal Lacks Firepower 25.08.2026 30min

  The US national debt passed $40 trillion last week. Scott Bessent's response was to double the Treasury's bond buybacks, from $2 billion a time to $4 billion. Against $5.6 trillion of debt maturing in the 10 to 30 year bucket alone, that is roughly $100 billion a year, a fraction of what is actually coming due. Elsewhere, Bessent has sold euros to buy yen to stop Japan selling Treasuries, tapped the TGA to help fund the buybacks, and signalled in the August refunding statement that future issuance will lean towards bills rather than long bonds. Each move buys time. None of them fixes the underlying arithmetic. Elvis sits down with veteran macro trader Jonny Matthews, 25 years of institutional experience at Brevan Howard and Citigroup, to unpack why Bessent's interventions are too small to move the market, what shifting issuance to the short end actually risks, and why he still expects yields to go higher. In this episode: The $40 trillion debt milestone, and why Bessent's "publicly traded" caveat is disingenuous Treasury buybacks doubling to $4 billion a time, still a drop in the ocean against $5.6 trillion maturing in the 10 to 30 year bucket The TGA explained: the Treasury's checking account at the Fed, currently around $1 trillion Why the yen intervention and swap facility increase is not QE, whatever it looks like The August refunding statement's hint that long bond issuance is capped, with funding shifting to the short end Fiscal dominance, and how short dated debt makes the Treasury hostage to the Fed's rate decisions Mandatory spending rising from 14.2% to 15.5% of GDP by 2036, with interest expense following from 3.3% to 4.6% The 30 year Treasury yield at 5.24%, and why the Volcker disinflation shows yields can stay high long after inflation falls Jonny has spent 25 years trading macro at the highest institutional level. This is not retail speculation or headline chasing. It is rigorous, independent analysis from someone who has sat at the table. New to SuperMacro? Get 30 days of our Daily Note entirely free at www.super-macro.com 0:00 Intro: last week's Treasury sell-off and the $40 trillion debt milestone 1:23 Bessent's response, and why it's more smoke and mirrors 2:36 Clip: Bessent on the $40 trillion mark, and why "publicly traded" debt is misleading 5:11 US debt to GDP against Italy and Japan 6:27 Mandatory spending and interest costs rising to 2036 7:42 The yen intervention and the swap facility 8:13 Treasury buybacks: $4 billion a time against $5.6 trillion maturing 10:12 The TGA explained 12:31 Shifting issuance to the short end, and the refunding statement's hidden signal 14:17 Where this goes wrong: debt monetisation and fiscal dominance 16:16 Yield curve control despite a strong economy 18:32 Other levers: bank regulation, the GSEs, and shrinking foreign demand 20:20 Is the dollar's reserve status in question 21:36 A crowded field: global sovereign yields at multi-year highs 23:14 Midterms, entitlement reform, and the UK's Liz Truss playbook 24:50 30 year yields against CPI since Volcker 26:49 Can the US afford to stay in Iran, or walk away 29:02 Wrap up and where to find the Daily Note
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  Sovereign Bonds Can't Catch a Break 18.08.2026 28min
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  The Yen Intervention Is Smoke and Mirrors 12.08.2026 30min

  In this episode: Why Treasury yields rose despite a negative payrolls print — and what a shrinking labour supply means for wages and inflation The unemployment rate at a 13-month low of 4.1% even as jobs are lost — the retiring boomers and net-zero migration story the headlines miss Bessent's "whatever it takes" moment: the leaked to-do list, the Exchange Stabilization Fund, and why this intervention is more theatre than firepower
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  Navigating the Financial Storm: Insights on the S&P and Economic Data 11.04.2025 28min

  In this episode of the Super Macro podcast, hosts Elvis and Jonny Matthews delve into the current turmoil in the financial markets, characterised by crashing stocks, soaring implied volatility, and rampant investor panic. Jonny highlights the ongoing forced unwinds and the diminishing confidence in the financial system, despite strong economic data. They discuss the impact of recent tariff announcements by the Trump administration, noting that higher-than-expected tariffs and shifting goalposts have left businesses uncertain about their next steps. The hosts explore the unintended consequences of these actions and the potential market repercussions that could unfold. Tune in for insights on navigating these turbulent times in the economic landscape.
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  Tariffs and Their Impact: A Deep Dive into Economic Uncertainty 14.03.2025 41min

  In this episode of the Super Macro podcast, hosts Elvis and Jonny Matthews delve into the pressing topic of tariffs and their impact on the economy. Jonny, who has been skeptical about the likelihood of a recession, discusses how current tariff policies are slowing growth, increasing prices, and disrupting global supply chains. The episode highlights the significant decline in business and consumer confidence, with companies putting hiring and capital expenditure plans on hold due to uncertainty. Jonny also emphasises the potential negative effects on household wealth and consumer spending if the stock market continues to decline. The conversation reveals that the real concern for CEOs may not just be the tariffs themselves but the unpredictability and abrupt changes in policy that could disrupt long-term business strategies. Tune in for an insightful analysis of the current economic climate and what it means for the future.
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  Navigating 2025: Economic Insights and Market Predictions | Episode 11 22.01.2025 38min

  In this episode of the Super Macro podcast, hosts Elvis and Jonny Matthews return after a brief hiatus to discuss economic projections for 2025. Johnny emphasises his confidence in the economy for the first half of the year, highlighting strong household and corporate balance sheets, alongside a robust job market. The conversation also touches on Johnny's successful year managing a portfolio for Fortum Capital, crediting his research and content creation for the impressive returns. Listeners are invited to subscribe to the Super Macro newsletter for insights and analysis, with a special offer for a free one-month trial. The episode sets the stage for future discussions, including the potential impact of political changes on the economy.
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  The Resilient US Economy: Consumer Spending and Corporate Profits | Episode 10 10.10.2024 32min

  In this episode of the Super Macro podcast, hosts Elvis and Jonny Matthews dive into the recent economic performance of Ireland, discussing the optimistic outlook for the third quarter. Jonny highlights strong consumer spending trends, projecting a 3% growth rate and an overall GDP growth of around 2.5% for the quarter. They address previous concerns about consumers depleting their savings, revealing new revisions to national accounts that indicate higher household income than previously estimated. Jonny emphasizes the importance of these insights for understanding the current economic landscape and future expectations. Tune in for an in-depth analysis of these trends and their implications for the economy.
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  Defending the No-Recession Stance - Episode 9 26.09.2024 30min

  In this episode of the Super Macro podcast, hosts Elvis and Jonny Matthews delve into the current market dynamics and the prevailing economic outlook. Jonny stands firm in his belief that a recession is unlikely, despite increasing skepticism in the market. He emphasizes the importance of maintaining a non-consensus view to capitalize on investment opportunities. The discussion shifts to the Federal Reserve's recent actions, particularly focusing on the dovish stance reflected in the changes in the two-year yield around FOMC meetings since March 2022. Jonny presents a detailed analysis of the trends in interest rates, illustrating how the Fed's projections and actions have influenced market reactions. Tune in for valuable insights on navigating the complexities of today's economic landscape.
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  What Recession?!! - Episode 8 16.09.2024 25min

  In this episode of the Super Macro Podcast, hosts Jonny Matthews and Elvis delve into the current market dynamics and the looming recession narrative. Jonny shares insights on the disparity between market pricing and economic realities, particularly focusing on the rates market. He highlights that the market is pricing in approximately 275 basis points of cuts over the next 15 months, which he argues signals a deep recession—a scenario he believes is unlikely based on current economic conditions. The discussion emphasizes the differences between today's corporate sector and that of the past, noting that companies are now less leveraged than during the 2007-2008 financial crisis. Jonny maintains his conviction that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates as drastically as the market anticipates, presenting a contrarian viewpoint that challenges prevailing market sentiments. Tune in for an engaging analysis that questions the market's recession pricing and explores the broader economic context.
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  Financial Conditions and Market Reactions: A Conversation with Andy Constan - Episode 7 11.07.2024 38min

  In this episode, Jonny Matthews and Elvis discuss the recent weak CPI print and its implications on the economy. They analyze the job market, highlighting the contrast between cyclical and non-cyclical sectors. Johnny emphasizes the significance of real disposable income growth and strong private sector wages. Stay tuned for a special guest, Andy Constand, joining the conversation later in the episode. Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction and Welcome00:00:11 - Discussion on the Economy and CPI Print00:00:57 - Analysis of Payroll and Job Sectors00:01:30 - Real Disposable Income and Consumer Spending00:02:37 - Household Wealth and Economic Outlook00:03:37 - Market Reactions: Bonds Up, Equities Down00:04:13 - Johnny's Year-to-Date Performance00:04:42 - Subscription Information for SuperMacro00:05:09 - Introduction of Special Guest Andy Constan00:06:10 - Andy's Market Call in October/November00:07:04 - Treasury Issuance and Market Reactions00:08:08 - Fed's Dovish Stance and Market Impact00:09:51 - Financial Conditions and Equity Market00:11:07 - Recent Economic Data and CPI Print00:12:18 - Sector Performance and Market Rotation00:13:14 - Economic Slowdown and Rate Cuts00:15:02 - Potential Economic Bounce and Treasury Market Outlook00:16:03 - Financial Conditions and Fed's Influence00:18:01 - Household Wealth and Consumer Behavior00:19:04 - Labor Market and Fed's Potential Rate Cuts00:20:00 - Impact of Financial Conditions on the Economy00:22:47 - Bonds vs. Equities Valuation00:23:19 - Fiscal Deficit and Treasury Issuance00:26:03 - Fed's Policy and Inflation Control00:28:06 - Treasury's Issuance Strategy00:30:34 - Long-term Debt Issuance Strategy00:35:21 - Term Premium Expansion and Asset Impact00:35:40 - Political Aspects of Treasury Issuance00:36:07 - Andy's Favorite Rock Bands00:37:20 - Andy's Updated Top 5 Rock Bands00:37:50 - Where to Find Andy's Work and Subscribe
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  The S&P's Resilience Amid Softening US Economic Data - Episode 6 09.06.2024 29min

  On this episode of Super Macro, Elvis and Jonny discuss the recent subpar economic data in the United States and its implications for Fed policy. They analyze charts showing the softening data against Treasury yields and the S&P, noting the disconnect between the S&P's strong performance and weakening economic indicators. Tune in to gain insights into the economic surprise index and what this shift in data trends could mean for the future.
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  Joseph Wang's Take on Central Banking and Market Predictions - Episode 5 16.04.2024 45min

  In this episode of the Super Macro Podcast, hosts Elvis and Jonny Matthews are joined by special guest Joseph Wang, also known as the Fed guy. Joseph, a former senior trader on the New York Open Markets Desk, shares his insights on the evolution of the Fed, the impact of quantitative easing, and predictions for the future of the economy. The discussion covers topics such as the Fed's role in the financial system, the potential for rate cuts, and the implications of fiscal deficits on asset prices. Tune in to gain valuable insights from Joseph's expertise and stay informed about the latest trends in the financial sector. 00:16 - Introduction and Guest Introduction 00:27 - Joseph Wang's Background 01:28 - Evolution of the Federal Reserve's Role 03:29 - Central Banks and Climate Change 04:35 - Bank of England's Performance Review 05:27 - Skepticism on QE Benefits 08:04 - Impact of QE on Asset Prices 09:11 - Fed's Approach to Balance Sheet Reduction 13:43 - Treasury Buyback Operations 15:25 - Fed's Understanding of Neutral Rate 19:02 - Market Expectations for Fed Rate Cuts 23:20 - Predictions for the Year: Economy and Markets 27:07 - Gold Price Prediction and TIPS as Inflation Hedge 30:14 - Joseph's Predictions Revisited 32:43 - Performance of Johnny's Portfolio 35:17 - How to Subscribe to the Super Macro Podcast Note 36:09 - Wage Growth and Services Inflation 40:49 - SOFR Futures as a Trading Opportunity 44:14 - Closing Remarks and Future Podcast Announcements
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  Analyzing the US Labor Market and Fed's Rate Cut Dilemma - Episode 4 08.04.2024 26min

  In this episode of The Super Macro Management podcast, Elvis and Jonny Matthews dive into the US labor market and the potential for rate cuts. They analyze the recent payroll data, highlighting healthy gains in both cyclical and non-cyclical sectors. With a decrease in unemployment, an increase in average hourly earnings, and a rise in the working week, the labor market report appears strong. Jonny emphasizes the upward trend in payroll growth over the past four months, noting a recent resurgence after a brief soft patch. Tune in for an insightful discussion on the current state of the US labor market and its implications for the future. 00:00 - Introduction and US Labor Market Discussion 00:39 - Analysis of Recent Payroll Data 02:00 - Part-Time vs Full-Time Job Creation Concerns 02:36 - Dissecting Part-Time Employment Reasons 04:20 - Labor Market Tightness and Part-Time Work 07:39 - Fed's Potential Rate Cuts and Economic Data 08:58 - Diverging Opinions Among Fed Members 09:42 - Upcoming CPI Data and Inflation Trends 10:43 - Super Core CPI and Housing Market Impact 12:12 - Political Implications of Fed Decisions 13:44 - Treasury Yields and S&P Outlook 15:10 - Gold as an Investment Option 17:42 - US Dollar and Currency Debasement 18:37 - S&P Vulnerability and Rate Hikes 19:16 - Equities and Treasury Yields Correlation 22:20 - Strategies for Equity Market Protection 25:06 - Upcoming Podcast Guest Announcement 25:56 - Closing Remarks and Subscription Information
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  Has the Fed Lost the Plot on Inflation? - Episode 3 25.03.2024 23min

  In this episode of Super Macro Podcast 3, Elvis and Jonny dive into the topic of whether the Fed has lost the plot on inflation. They discuss the Fed's recent decisions, including leaving interest rates unchanged, raising inflation and growth forecasts, and the potential impact on the bond market. Jonny believes the Fed has been too soft on inflation, expressing concerns about the end of goods disinflation and the rise in services and energy costs. While he doesn't think the Fed has completely lost the plot, he questions the effectiveness of their current policy moves. 02:17 Fed's inflation target dilemma. 04:47 Powell's handling of inflation. 10:58 Wage growth predictions and indicators. 13:06 The Fed's ability to influence yields. 19:32 One or two good trades. 21:09 Industrial recovery and metal prices.
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  Navigating the US Market: CPI Data, Payroll Reports, and Fed Policy - Episode 2 14.03.2024 36min

  On this episode of Supermacro, Jonny and Elvis discuss the recent developments in the US market, including the CPI data and the non-farm payroll report. Despite the unexpected CPI print and mixed payroll data, Jonny maintains his view that the easing of financial conditions is stimulating the economy in ways the Fed may not have anticipated. The episode delves into the implications of Fed policy and the overall economic outlook. To access the SuperMacro newsletter and stay updated on economic analysis and trade recommendations, visit SuperMacro. Subscribe for a free trial and gain access to Johnny's expert insights and portfolio performance updates. Listen to the full podcast episode for in-depth analysis and valuable market insights. Don't forget to like, share, and subscribe for more financial discussions and investment strategies.
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  Unpacking the Health of the US Economy: No Recession in Sight - Episode 1 01.03.2024 36min

  In this episode of the SuperMacro podcast, Jonny discusses the health of the US consumer and the absence of a looming recession. He delves into charts showcasing the strength of the US economy, the impact of job gains, wage growth, and household finances. Elvis and Jonny also touch on the Federal Reserve's policies, inflation, and the future of interest rates. Join them as they analyze market trends, investment strategies, and more. Don't miss out on valuable insights and trade ideas shared in this engaging discussion. To access the SuperMacro newsletter and stay updated on economic analysis and trade recommendations, visit SuperMacro. Subscribe for a free trial and gain access to Johnny's expert insights and portfolio performance updates. Listen to the full podcast episode for in-depth analysis and valuable market insights. Don't forget to like, share, and subscribe for more financial discussions and investment strategies.