Excess Returns

Episoder

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  Not a Time for Big Bets | Aahan Menon on What 60 Years of Regime Data Says About Today’s Market 23.07.2026 57min

  Aahan Menon, founder of Prometheus Research, joins Jack Forehand to explain what systematic macro data says about economic growth, inflation, Federal Reserve policy, oil prices, AI investment and the outlook for stocks and bonds. They examine why nominal GDP remains stable, why traditional recession indicators have failed, how consumer dissaving is boosting corporate profits, and why today's unusually balanced regime probabilities make this a difficult time for large macro bets.Aahan Menon on Xhttps://x.com/AahanPrometheusPrometheus Researchhttps://www.prometheus-macro.comTopics coveredWhy geopolitical volatility and disrupted market trends make concentrated macro bets unusually difficultWhat Prometheus Research's daily GDP nowcast says about stable nominal growthWhy AI capital spending matters but consumer spending still drives the US economyHow household dissaving and the wealth effect are supporting corporate profitsWhy the economy and Federal Reserve policy may be increasingly sensitive to stock pricesHow oil prices are driving inflation volatility and changing expectations for interest ratesWhy demand-driven inflation is more persistent than supply-driven inflationHow technology investment has weakened traditional recession and business-cycle indicatorsThe value and limitations of timing Federal Reserve policy with systematic macro dataWhat macro regime probabilities, valuations and expected returns suggest for stocks, bonds and diversificationTimestamps00:02 Why this is a difficult time for big macro bets05:02 A daily GDP nowcast shows stable nominal growth09:21 Consumer dissaving and the future economic risk13:23 The wealth effect linking stocks, spending and profits17:52 Oil prices and extreme inflation volatility22:23 Separating persistent demand inflation from supply shocks27:27 Why traditional recession indicators stopped working32:55 How technology is changing the business cycle37:42 Why timing Federal Reserve cycles matters for bond returns42:28 The limitations of alternative data and short histories47:33 Macro regime forecasts and expected returns51:54 Why the macro backdrop still supports equities56:19 Why investors can finally get paid to diversifyLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
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  We Asked the Man Who Mapped the AI Economy If the Boom Is Real — And Who Keeps the Money 21.07.2026 1t 15min

  Azeem Azhar joins Kai Wu to break down the real economics of the AI boom, including the $110 billion demand base, where profits may accrue across chips, hosting, foundation models and applications, and whether spending can translate into enterprise productivity. They discuss AI infrastructure bottlenecks, open-source competition, vertical integration, organizational redesign, software moats, human judgment and the signals investors can use to identify companies turning AI adoption into durable competitive advantage.The State of the AI Economyhttps://intelligence.exponentialview.co/assets/ev-state-of-ai-economy-2026.pdfWhy AI Isn't Showing Up on Your Bottom Linehttps://www.exponentialview.co/p/why-ai-isnt-showing-up-on-your-bottom-lineAzeem Azhar on Xhttps://x.com/azeemExponential Viewhttps://www.exponentialview.co/Topics CoveredThe size and growth rate of real generative AI demandHow the AI stack divides between chips, hosting, foundation models and applicationsWhy memory and energized data centers may be the key AI infrastructure bottlenecksOpen-source models, proprietary pricing and enterprise assuranceVertical integration and foundation model labs moving into applicationsHow AI value could flow to consumers rather than infrastructure providersWhy AI productivity requires workflow and organizational redesignWhat investors can learn from earnings calls, hiring and enterprise spendingForward-deployed engineers, consulting firms and vendor lock-inWhich intangible business moats strengthen or weaken as intelligence becomes abundantTimestamps00:00 The economics and sustainability of the AI boom06:34 Mapping the four layers of the AI stack10:43 Vertical integration and cross-stack competition15:31 Why memory is becoming an AI infrastructure bottleneck20:01 Open-source models versus proprietary AI24:36 Why foundation model labs are moving up and down the stack28:51 Could AI profits become consumer surplus?33:00 Why more copilots cannot create an AI-native company37:17 Job postings and the intangible investments behind AI adoption44:16 Can forward-deployed engineers transform legacy companies?49:15 Which business moats strengthen or weaken in the AI economy?54:20 Do foundation models really have network effects?59:00 Why judgment, verification and human provenance become more valuable01:04:56 The exponential gap in data centers and education01:10:06 How Azeem uses AI to deepen research and generate ideasLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
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  It Only Happens at Bottoms | Andy Constan on the Options Extreme That Showed Up at the Highs 18.07.2026 57min

  On the Latest First Principles, Andy Constan explains what the options market is signaling about the AI and semiconductor boom, why he believes earnings expectations have outrun the size of the economy, and where the next risks may emerge. We discuss speculative call buying, single-stock volatility, AI capital spending, consumer dissaving, the Fed put, Kevin Warsh's monetary policy framework, and the looming reset of US tariffs.Topics covered:* Why parabolic moves in AI infrastructure and semiconductor stocks may reflect a speculative bubble* What rising single-stock volatility and unusually low market correlations reveal beneath a calm index* Why out-of-the-money calls became more expensive than puts and what that says about investor positioning* How investors can hedge concentrated stock gains by selling calls and buying protective puts* Why the AI bubble may be hiding in earnings expectations rather than traditional valuation multiples* Andy's economic pie framework and why projected corporate profits may exceed the GDP available to support them* How AI competition, open-source models, job displacement and subsidized token usage affect the return on AI investment* Why capital spending and consumer dissaving are supporting economic growth, and where those drivers could weaken* Whether the Federal Reserve could eventually buy equity ETFs and the inflationary consequences of a permanent Fed put* How lower short-term rates and a smaller Fed balance sheet could rebalance Main Street and Wall Street* Why expiring Section 122 tariffs could create a near-term shift in inflation, growth and the federal deficitTimestamps:00:02 Why the options market is flashing a warning on AI stocks04:02 Extreme stock dispersion beneath a calm market08:49 The signals of a speculative call-buying frenzy13:00 How to hedge a stock position without calling the top18:36 Why earnings expectations may be the real AI bubble23:00 The economic pie cannot support every company's forecasts27:00 AI job displacement and the widening gap between winners and losers31:59 How capital spending and consumer dissaving are sustaining growth36:00 When the return on AI investment starts to matter40:26 Could the Fed buy stocks in the next financial crisis?44:53 How Kevin Warsh might respond when markets and employment collapse48:58 Lower rates, a smaller balance sheet and wealth inequality52:59 The tariff deadline investors may be overlookingLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
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  Jack Schwager on Timeless Lessons from Elite Traders 16.07.2026 1t 1min

  Jack Schwager joins Excess Returns to discuss Market Wizards: The Next Generation and the extraordinary young traders profiled in the newest installment of the Market Wizards series.He explains how traders turned small accounts into fortunes, survived devastating losses, built exceptional risk-adjusted records and adapted from day trading to longer-term strategies, while revealing the psychology, risk management and commitment behind elite trading performance.Jack Schwager on Xhttps://x.com/jackschwagerMarket Wizards: The Next Generationhttps://amzn.to/4psEOmHTopics coveredHow video games, prop trading firms and modern technology shaped a new generation of tradersHow Jack Schwager finds candidates and verifies extraordinary trading track recordsWhy return-to-risk measures can reveal more than the Sharpe ratioLukas Froelich's astonishing 2020 performance and the limits of compounding and scalabilitySimon Rousseau's journey from a $40,000 borrowed account to nearly $500 millionHow breaking risk rules led to massive losses even after extraordinary successKristjan Kullamägi's path from security guard to more than $100 million after repeated account blowupsPhil Goedeker's success with short selling, option selling and unusually strong risk controlRick Bandazian Jr.'s merger arbitrage edge and more than a decade without a losing monthWhy financial markets may remain uniquely difficult for artificial intelligence to solveLance Breitstein's apprenticeship, deliberate practice and shift from day trading to longer-term positionsWhat traders and long-term investors can learn about talent, discipline, persistence and human natureTimestamps00:00 Intro to Market Wizards: The Next Generation04:33 How Jack finds exceptional traders and how the trading ecosystem changed09:15 Auditing Lukas Froelich's extraordinary 2020 returns14:03 Simon Rousseau: turning $40,000 into nearly $500 million18:42 The $50 million Carvana loss and the danger of breaking trading rules22:54 Kristjan Kullamägi: from security guard to more than $100 million28:36 Phil Goedeker and the risk of negative asymmetry strategies32:41 Hedging option risk during the Liberation Day market selloff37:34 Trading personality and Rick Bandazian Jr.'s no-loss record41:36 Can artificial intelligence ever become a Market Wizard?45:42 Lance Breitstein: choosing mentorship over a higher salary49:42 What long-term investors can learn from elite traders53:52 Innate talent, human nature and all-consuming commitment57:58 What the next generation of trading may look likeLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
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  The Recession the Unemployment Rate Can't See | Eric Pachman on the Data Beneath the Jobs Report 14.07.2026 1t 6min

  Eric Pachman of Data 4 The People joins Matt Zeigler to explain why headline employment and inflation data may be giving investors an incomplete picture of the U.S. economy. They examine falling labor force participation, Medicaid-funded healthcare jobs, wage quality, oil and diesel shortages, consumer financial stress and how AI can make public data more useful.Eric Pachman on Xhttps://x.com/EricPachmanData 4 The Peoplehttps://www.data4thepeople.com/Main topics coveredWhy the establishment survey and household survey can tell very different labor market storiesWhy unemployment may miss weakening labor force participation and disappearing working-age AmericansThe decline in participation among older workers and menHow healthcare and Medicaid-funded care have become the engine of U.S. job growthWhy Medicaid cuts could create a major employment and consumer spending riskWhat occupational wage data reveals about the quality of new jobs and home healthcare payThe differences between CPI, PCE and core inflation and why the standard measures can be misleadingHow crude oil grades, refinery design and 3-2-1 crack spreads shape energy pricesWhy falling diesel inventories could spread inflation through transportation, food and retailWhat the single-income stress test reveals about household fragility, poverty and multiple-job holdersHow Data 4 The People is using AI to build public-interest data research toolsTimestamps00:00 Intro04:41 Why the unemployment rate can miss a labor crisis11:24 Healthcare jobs, aging America and the Medicaid care economy18:44 The Wage Ledger and the hidden quality of U.S. job growth24:18 Why inflation is moving higher30:48 Why every equity investor needs to understand oil36:00 Crack spreads and the refinery mismatch problem44:05 Why diesel is the inflation risk that matters most48:34 The single-income stress test and consumer fragility54:42 Data 4 The People's nonprofit mission59:00 Building an AI research assistant for public data01:03:37 Where to follow Eric and Data 4 The PeopleLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
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  Jim Paulsen Sees a Correction Coming | The 33 Charts That Turned Him Cautious 11.07.2026 58min

  Jim Paulsen joins us to explain why weakening economic momentum, tightening financial conditions and extreme AI enthusiasm could set the stage for a 10% to 20% stock market correction. We discuss labor market weakness, the growing divide between technology and the broader economy, fading tech leadership, market complacency, bond yields and the demographic forces that could keep US growth and inflation lower for years.Jim also explains why he does not expect a recession or the end of the long-term bull market, but believes investors may need to reduce their concentration in AI and technology stocks as leadership quietly shifts toward the broader market.Jim Paulsen on Xhttps://x.com/jimwpaulsenPaulsen Perspectiveshttps://paulsenperspectives.substack.com/Main topics covered• Why Jim expects a 10% to 20% market correction without a recession• What zero job creation, declining full-time employment and rising unemployment reveal about the labor market• Why housing starts, real disposable income and GDP forecasts point to weaker economic growth• How higher Treasury yields, oil prices, a stronger dollar and slower money growth have tightened financial conditions• Why the economic damage from an oil shock often appears after oil prices peak• The widening earnings and economic divide between AI investment and the rest of the economy• What investor positioning, shrinking liquidity and low defensive exposure reveal about market complacency• Why strong earnings momentum does not eliminate the risk of a market decline• Evidence that technology, communication services and the Magnificent Seven are losing market leadership• Why old economy sectors may outperform technology during the next stage of the bull market• How weak labor force growth could push economic growth, inflation and Treasury yields lower• Why demographics, immigration and productivity will shape the long-term US economic outlookTimestamps00:00 Why Jim Paulsen expects a 10% to 20% market correction04:32 The labor market weakness investors may be overlooking08:42 Housing, disposable income and GDP growth are deteriorating13:03 How tighter financial conditions could slow the economy17:09 Why oil shocks and the yield curve threaten earnings growth21:41 Investor complacency and the disconnect between markets and Main Street25:54 How today’s AI boom differs from the dot-com bubble30:20 Defensive stocks reach an extreme last seen near major market tops34:36 Record earnings expectations, momentum and extreme valuations39:00 Technology, communication services and the Magnificent Seven lose momentum43:00 The hidden market rotation from new era to old era stocks47:01 Why Jim expects Treasury yields to fall below 3%51:43 The demographic forces suppressing growth and inflation55:45 America’s long-term growth challenge and what could change it
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  Big Uptrend. Tech Momentum Fading | Katie Stockton on the Rotation Investors Are Missing 09.07.2026 53min

  Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies joins Excess Returns to break down the current technical setup for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, mega-cap tech, market breadth, sector rotation, international stocks and gold. We discuss why short-term momentum has weakened, what would confirm a more serious breakdown, how investors can use technical analysis for risk management, and where breakouts are appearing outside the AI and semiconductor trade.Katie Stockton on Xhttps://x.com/StocktonKatieFairlead Strategieshttps://www.fairleadstrategies.com/Fairlead Fundshttps://www.fairleadfunds.com/Main topics coveredWhy the S&P 500 is still in a long-term uptrend but showing short-term momentum lossHow Katie defines overbought and oversold using the stochastic oscillatorWhy the March monthly MACD sell signal became an unusual whipsawWhat the QQQs and Nasdaq 100 are saying about technology leadershipHow investors can use stop losses, hedges and moving averages to manage riskWhy the market has held up despite underperformance in the Magnificent SevenThe difference between market breadth and market leadershipWhy sector rotation is improving in healthcare, industrials, utilities, insurers and biotechHow sentiment indicators like the VIX and Fear and Greed Index fit into market timingHow the Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF uses trend following, sector rotation, Treasuries and goldWhat the charts are saying about emerging markets, developed international stocks and the U.S.Why gold has moved from a strong bull market into a more tactical trading environmentTimestamps00:00 Intro00:58 Why the S&P 500 is losing short-term momentum05:04 How overbought conditions can reset without a major decline08:39 Why whipsaws make confirmation so important12:02 What the QQQs are saying about technology leadership16:51 How to manage risk with stop losses and hedges20:07 Why the market held up despite Mag Seven weakness23:49 How market breadth differs from market leadership28:14 What sentiment indicators are saying about investor positioning32:58 Why the market is in a technical void36:00 Sector rotation beyond technology and semiconductors40:54 How the Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF manages drawdowns46:05 What international stock charts are saying versus the U.S.50:13 Why markets have been resilient despite geopolitical risk52:05 What the chart of gold is telling investors now
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  We Asked a $1 Billion Quant Manager Why Concentration Isn't a Warning — and Small Caps Aren't Dead 07.07.2026 57min

  Matt Zenz of Longview Research Partners joins Excess Returns to explain how evidence-based investing can help investors navigate AI excitement, market concentration, high valuations, IPO hype, factor investing and fixed income tax drag. We discuss why bubbles are hard to identify in real time, why diversification still matters, how valuation spreads shape expected returns, what AI capex does and does not tell us, and how investors can think about taxable bonds more efficiently.Longview Research Partnershttps://longviewresearchpartners.com/Main topics coveredWhy evidence-based investing matters during bubble-like marketsThe emotional reality of holding risk assets through painful periodsHow to think about market concentration without jumping straight to bubble callsWhy global diversification changes the mega-cap dominance storyWhat high market valuations mean for financial planning and expected returnsWhy wide valuation spreads may create a better setup for value stocksWhat factor research says about AI capex and corporate investmentHow Longview builds a diversified factor strategy around discount ratesWhy implementation, trading flexibility and scale matter in factor investingThe small cap premium debate, IPOs, fallen angels and survivorship biasWhy AI may increase data mining risk in quantitative investingHow fixed income tax drag can quietly reduce after-tax returnsTimestamps00:00 Why painful markets create future return premiums04:00 Market concentration, AI winners and the value of diversification09:40 How high valuations should influence financial planning13:12 Why wide valuation spreads matter for value investors14:01 What factor research says about AI capex16:20 How Longview's EBI strategy looks for higher discount rates18:58 Why Longview starts with the market and then tilts21:45 Comparing 1999, 2008 and today through expected returns24:33 Intangible assets, price-to-book and the limits of accounting adjustments28:32 SpaceX, IPOs and how indexes handle new mega-cap companies33:21 Why implementation and trading flexibility can affect returns36:17 Passive flows, price elasticity and market price discovery39:35 The small cap premium, IPOs and fallen angels42:21 Are today's small caps lower quality than history?46:01 Why AI may not uncover the next great factor premium48:04 Why fixed income may be the most inefficient part of taxable portfolios51:29 How LVIG tries to convert bond income into deferred capital appreciation52:50 The after-tax return opportunity from tax deferral54:58 Which investors may benefit most from tax-efficient fixed income56:26 Where to learn more about Matt Zenz and Longview
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  The $600 Billion Loop | Jeff Klingelhofer on AI, the Return of Bonds and the Fed's Third Mandate 06.07.2026 56min

  Jeff Klingelhofer of Aristotle Pacific joins Excess Returns to break down the fragile circular relationship between AI capital spending, the stock market, the high-end consumer and the broader economy. We discuss fixed income markets, Fed policy, inflation, private credit, the national debt, business cycle risk and how investors should think about bonds after the end of the zero-rate era.Aristotle Pacifichttps://www.aristotlepacific.com/Main topics coveredWhy AI CapEx has become one of the biggest drivers of the US economy and stock marketHow the high-end consumer, asset prices and AI spending have created a circular market setupWhy today’s fixed income market is very different from the zero-rate eraHow bonds can serve as income, ballast and portfolio protection in the current environmentWhy the Fed may care more about inflation expectations than markets expectThe Fed’s overlooked third mandate and what moderate long-term interest rates meanHow Kevin Warsh could change the Fed’s approach to forward guidance, inflation and the balance sheetWhy the business cycle is not dead, even if Fed intervention has lengthened itWhat investors should understand about the national debt, higher rates and inflationWhy private credit is useful but not automatically better than public creditHow flexible fixed income investing can find opportunities across credit, securitized markets and capital structuresWhy sentiment, not just fundamentals, drives market pricesTimestamps00:00 AI CapEx, the stock market and the fragile economic loop04:03 Why fixed income markets look different after zero rates08:45 Does the Fed still have investors’ backs?13:43 Are AI companies using dangerous forms of financing?18:54 Why starting yields change the stock bond hedge23:42 The Fed’s overlooked third mandate29:03 Why inflation expectation stability may drive Fed policy33:11 How Kevin Warsh may change the Fed regime38:46 What a smaller Fed balance sheet could mean for asset prices43:24 The national debt, higher rates and inflation50:25 Why fixed income should be managed across silos55:08 The one lesson for the average investor
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  We Asked Meb Faber Why US Stocks Won for 250 Years — And If It Can Continue 05.07.2026 1t 1min

  Meb Faber, co-founder and CIO of Cambria Investment Management, joins Excess Returns to discuss his new book, Investing in America: The Rise of a 250 Year Bull Market.We explore why the United States became one of the greatest long-term compounding stories in market history, what investors can learn from 250 years of booms and busts, and why Meb can be optimistic about America while still cautious on today’s expensive market-cap-weighted S&P 500.Investing in America: The Rise of a 250 Year Bull Markethttps://amzn.to/4f1H5AwMeb Faber on Xhttps://x.com/MebFaberMain topics coveredWhy America can be viewed as the ultimate venture capital success storyHow joint stock companies, risk-taking and ownership helped shape the U.S. economyWhy studying 250 years of market history changes how investors think about volatilityThe long-term case for stocks and why the time horizon matters so muchWhy bear markets are a natural part of capitalism and long-term compoundingHow U.S. market dominance happened and why it was not preordainedWhy expensive valuations, low dividend yields and new supply may matter todayThe role of dividends, buybacks, shareholder yield and reinvestment in long-term returnsWhy diversification across global stocks, bonds and real assets can help investors stay investedWhat gold, REITs and foreign stocks teach us about starting points and narrativesWhy early investing, child investment accounts and compounding can change investor behaviorHow creative destruction reshapes sectors, companies and the market leaders of each eraWhy Meb remains optimistic about America while still cautious on parts of the U.S. marketTimestamps00:00 Why America was not guaranteed to become the market winner01:15 Meb Faber on writing Investing in America02:25 America as the ultimate venture capital success story06:22 How a culture of ownership helped the U.S. stock market compound09:19 Why studying 250 years of market history matters12:00 Why ownership is the core investing lesson15:14 Bear markets, recessions and the danger of recent history18:16 Why U.S. stocks beat the rest of the world by so much22:20 Lessons from financial history that surprised Meb27:05 Why stocks can lose for long periods and bonds can win30:00 Why investors need to get used to being in a drawdown33:24 Dividends, buybacks and the importance of reinvestment37:27 Why gold and REITs beat the S&P 500 after 200040:55 How balanced portfolios survive different market regimes43:03 The power of starting early and letting compounding work48:16 Why global diversification matters outside the U.S.50:40 Creative destruction, sector change and market leadership55:20 Why Meb is still optimistic about investing in America59:33 Where to find the book, Cambria and Meb online
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  Semis Gone Parabolic. Fed Credibility Reversal. Can the Rally Survive the Flows? 03.07.2026 1t 4min

  In this episode of Last Call, we look back at June 2026 and break down the biggest market stories shaping investors’ outlook for the second half of the year. Matt Zeigler and Jack Forehand are joined by Andy Constan, Ben Hunt, Brent Kochuba and Eric Pachman to discuss the SpaceX IPO, AI and semiconductor cyclicality, Fed credibility, options flows, labor market quality, crack spreads and inflation risk.Follow Last Call on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow Last Call on Apple Podcasts⁠Main topics coveredWhy the SpaceX IPO became the biggest market story of the monthHow index flows, ETF buying and hedge fund positioning shaped SpaceX tradingAndy Constan on why future earnings growth may be oversubscribed across AI stocksWhy AI spending is benefiting semiconductors, memory and chip equipment companiesThe Fab Five companies behind semiconductor capacity and why they matterBen Hunt on Fed credibility, market narratives, gold, the dollar and trustBrent Kochuba on options flows, correlation risk and volatility spasms in tech stocksWhy short-term options volume may signal excess speculation in QQQ and AI stocksHow SpaceX options trading changed after the first wave of retail excitementEric Pachman on why headline job growth may hide weakness in wages and job qualityWhy crack spreads, refining constraints and oil logistics may matter more for inflation than crude prices aloneWhat investors should watch next in AI, semiconductors, memory, innovation and market cyclesTimestamps00:00 Intro01:02 Matt and Jack introduce Last Call and the June market review03:05 Why SpaceX dominated the month and how the IPO traded after opening07:33 Andy Constan on Fab Five Freddy eating the semis10:35 Why future earnings growth may be oversubscribed across the stock market13:35 How AI compute spending flows through chips, fabs and semiconductor equipment17:45 Are parts of the semiconductor market showing signs of an earnings bubble?20:12 Ben Hunt on the Fed credibility chart that surprised him23:50 Why Fed credibility, Sell America, gold and the dollar are connected29:48 Brent Kochuba on options flows behind AI stocks, semis and SpaceX33:36 Why semiconductor volatility may be warning of a short-term reset38:46 What SpaceX options trading says after the initial surge42:12 Eric Pachman on jobs, wages and what the Fed may be missing48:24 Why crack spreads matter for oil, refining, gas prices and inflation55:28 What to watch next in AI, semiconductors, memory demand and market cycles59:01 Why efficiency, competition and cyclical thinking matter for AI investors01:03:02 Matt and Jack close the episodeNo information on this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed in the podcast may be holdings of the firms of the hosts or their clients.
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  The AI Trade, the Fed and the Next Phase of the Bull Market | Warren Pies 02.07.2026 55min

  Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research joins Excess Returns to break down the AI bull market, the macro risks investors should watch, and why the data still supports continued strength in semiconductors and equities. We discuss GPU demand, token usage, open source AI, Fed policy, housing weakness, oil, earnings growth, market valuations and the biggest risks to the current cycle.Warren Pies on Xhttps://x.com/WarrenPies3Fourteen Researchhttps://www.3fourteenresearch.com/Calibanhttps://www.3fourteenresearch.com/calibanMain topics coveredWhich bearish AI arguments actually matter for investorsWhy regulatory risk may be the biggest long-term AI concernHow data center spending is crowding out housing investmentWhy the Fed may struggle to cool AI-driven investment without hurting the labor marketWhat GPU availability says about real-time AI compute demandWhy open source AI is not yet replacing frontier modelsHow token pricing and OpenRouter data help measure AI usageWhy semiconductor stocks may still be in the middle of a major cycleHow semis are being valued differently than traditional cyclicalsWhy Fed policy, earnings growth and market multiples are key to the second half of 2026What oil positioning and refined product inventories say about macro riskWhy 3Fourteen remains constructive on equities despite rising overheating riskTimestamps00:00 Intro01:04 Which bearish AI arguments have teeth?04:00 Why AI regulation is the biggest long-term risk07:03 Technology spending versus housing investment11:03 How AI CapEx is showing up in inflation data13:04 Why the labor market is more fragile than headline jobs data suggests16:24 Why GPU availability is a cleaner signal than CapEx announcements21:00 What token pricing and OpenRouter data reveal about AI demand27:36 How 3Fourteen benchmarks frontier models against open source AI30:00 Why the semiconductor selloff looked like a buyable dip34:02 Are semiconductors still cyclical businesses?38:08 Why Fed tightening could be the thing that ends the bull market42:15 What the oil shock means now45:47 Refined product inventories, crack spreads and energy stocks47:18 Are earnings estimates becoming too optimistic?50:49 Why the debasement regime still supports equities54:05 Where to find Warren Pies and 3Fourteen Research
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  He Wrote the Book on Why Moats Fail | Ritavan on What Actually Compounds Instead 01.07.2026 1t 11min

  Ritavan joins Excess Returns to explain The System Gambit, a new framework for understanding competitive advantage, business strategy, AI disruption and long-term compounding. We discuss why traditional moat checklists can miss the real source of value, how companies can build systems competitors cannot copy, and what investors should look for when AI changes the game.The System Gambithttps://amzn.to/4b0J32IMain topics coveredWhy the traditional moat checklist can fail investorsThe three requirements for a true System GambitHow investors can evaluate business strategy from the outsideWhy code is not always the moat in the age of AIWhat history can teach investors about asymmetry and leverageWhy AI adoption is not the same as AI value creationThe difference between moving fast and understanding the gameLessons from Nokia, ASML, Amazon and WalmartHow intangible investment and J curves can hide long-term valueWhy the best companies build compounding systems competitors cannot copyHow investors can identify companies changing the game rather than optimizing the old oneTimestamps00:00 Opening preview and introduction04:00 The three ingredients of a System Gambit08:49 Why code is not the moat in AI software13:00 Skanderbeg and changing the rules of the game17:00 Good moats, good narratives and asymmetric advantage22:31 Microscope vs telescope as a lesson for AI28:35 AI winners, losers and high dispersion markets32:08 Signal quality, bottlenecks and why AI adoption is not enough36:00 Nokia, agility and the failure to build a causal model40:15 Why understanding the game beats speed44:00 Intangible investment, the J curve and ASML's hidden edge49:54 The contrarian AI thesis behind The System Gambit54:00 How to recognize a real System Gambit58:27 Amazon, Walmart and multi-paradigm compounding1:03:00 Prime, FBA and platform leverage1:07:00 Walmart's answer to Amazon1:11:06 Closing thoughts and where to find Ritavan
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  The 100 Year Thinkers: Chris Mayer on SpaceX, AI Reckoning, and Why Early Is Overrated 27.06.2026 58min

  On this episode of the 100 Year Thinkers, Chris Mayer and Matt Zeigler discuss long-term investing, 100-baggers, AI stocks, SpaceX valuation, founder-led companies, and why the best investments often come with brutal drawdowns. We also cover his new book The Investor's Odyssey, the danger of letting labels like AI do too much work, how to think about TAM and capital allocation, and why patience may be the biggest edge for investors trying to own great businesses for decades.⁠Subscribe to the 100 Year Thinkers on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to the 100 Year Thinkers on Apple⁠The Investor's Odyssey: Resisting the Sirens and Playing the Long Game⁠https://amzn.to/44BMXeJ⁠Main topics coveredWhy SpaceX, AI and trillion-dollar IPOs are testing investor disciplineHow Chris Mayer thinks about valuation after watching Google become a huge winnerWhy great businesses can still be terrible investments at the wrong priceThe danger of letting labels like AI, quality and TAM replace real analysisWhy many AI features may not create real customer valueWhat the dot-com bubble can teach investors about AI adoption and shakeoutsWhy investors do not need to be early if a company is truly exceptionalHow to separate AI anecdotes from real financial impactWhy capital allocation and return on invested capital matter more as companies scaleHow to evaluate founder control, governance, incentives and trustWhy the best long-term stocks can still fall 50 percent or more along the wayWhat rational exuberance might look like for long-term investorsTimestamps00:00 Intro: Chris Mayer on AI, SpaceX and long-term investing04:00 SpaceX valuation vs Google and the risk of paying too much08:01 Why labels like AI and quality can do too much work12:05 The AI pause, the dot-com analogy and where real value may emerge16:06 Why investors do not need to be early when a business is real21:00 Becoming a great company versus already being mature25:10 Thinking about TAM, market share and realistic growth expectations29:43 Corporate governance, free float and shareholder rights34:27 How to judge founder trust, incentives and compensation38:57 Employee ownership, culture and building enduring companies43:02 Investor frustration in a lopsided AI-driven market47:02 Why even a perfect stock picker would face brutal drawdowns52:17 The rise of trillion-dollar IPOs and the question of rational exuberance56:29 The Investor's Odyssey and playing the long game
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  We Asked GMO’s Head of Asset Allocation Why This Bubble is Easy — But Investors Will Get it Wrong 24.06.2026 1t 9min

  Ben Inker of GMO joins Excess Returns to break down whether the AI boom is an investment bubble, how it compares to 2000, 2007 and 2021, and why today’s risk may be more about earnings than valuations. We also discuss AI capital spending, market supply from IPOs, GMO’s seven-year asset class forecasts, international stocks, benchmark-free allocation and what private equity investors may be missing.7 YEAR ASSET CLASS FORECASThttps://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/gmo-7-year-asset-class-forecast-may-2026_gmo7yearassetclassforecast/WHAT BARBARIANS LIKE TO TAKE PRIVATEhttps://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/part-1-what-barbarians-like-to-take-private_gmoquarterlyletter/THE CASE FOR LIQUID ALTERNATIVEShttps://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/the-case-for-liquid-alternatives-in-todays-environment_insights/Main topics coveredWhy GMO sees the AI boom as a bubble investors may be able to navigateThe difference between easy bubbles and hard bubbles in portfolio constructionLessons from the internet bubble, the global financial crisis and the 2021 duration bubbleWhy today’s market may be an earnings bubble, not just a valuation bubbleHow AI data center spending affects corporate profits before depreciation shows upWhy transformational technologies do not always reward the companies building themThe risk of circular financing, debt-funded AI spending and increasingly creative deal structuresHow IPOs, share issuance and market supply can pressure stock returnsGMO’s seven-year asset class forecasts and why international stocks look more attractive than U.S. stocksWhy private equity portfolios may contain large hidden bets on small, lower-quality companiesTimestamps00:00 AI, earnings bubbles and market supply00:58 Why Ben Inker thinks the AI bubble may be easier to navigate02:43 What makes a bubble easy or hard for investors08:12 Comparing risk and return in 2000, 2007, 2021 and today14:42 Why optimizers and real clients see risk differently17:02 What GMO learned from managing through past bubbles19:08 How today compares to the 2000 internet bubble20:00 Why this may be an earnings bubble23:34 Semiconductors, memory makers and the capital cycle25:00 How AI CapEx compares to railroads, electricity and fiber optics29:33 Debt, circular financing and strange AI deals34:32 Why massive stock issuance could challenge the market40:00 How GMO builds seven-year asset class return forecasts41:40 Why interest rates change fair value for stocks and bonds45:32 Why international, value and small-cap stocks look more attractive49:06 The case for a benchmark-free portfolio55:21 What 700 leveraged buyouts reveal about private equity01:02:00 How public portfolios can offset private equity risks01:03:37 Why investors need to understand what they are paid for01:08:27 Closing thoughts
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  Finding Quality Growth in Emerging Markets with Ian Smith 22.06.2026 57min

  Ian Smith, portfolio manager at William Blair, joins Excess Returns to break down emerging markets, global diversification, and why EM may offer a very different opportunity set than US stocks. We discuss AI capex, the role of Korea, Taiwan, China and India, the impact of the dollar, quality investing, valuation, and how active investors can think about opportunity in a world shaped by AI disruption and geopolitical change.William Blair Investment Managementhttps://im.williamblair.com/The Problem With Qualityhttps://im.williamblair.com/insights/articles/the-problem-with-qualityTopics covered:Why emerging markets are not one single tradeHow AI capex is reshaping EM indexes and performanceWhy Korea, Taiwan and China are central to the AI supply chainThe role of the US dollar in emerging market returnsWhy EM index concentration is higher than many investors realizeWhat past innovation cycles can teach us about the AI buildoutHow AI is changing the definition of quality investingWhy China’s manufacturing strength creates both opportunity and riskThe long-term case for India despite high valuationsHow William Blair evaluates quality, trajectory and underappreciationWhy valuation in emerging markets requires more than simple multiplesThe one investing lesson Ian Smith would teach the average investorTimestamps:00:00 Intro04:10 Why emerging markets are not one market08:37 Why EM is underrepresented in global indexes13:16 How the dollar impacts emerging market returns18:37 AI capex, picks and shovels, and EM supply chains24:17 How William Blair is using AI in the investment process28:30 Why quality and growth have decoupled in emerging markets33:19 Why AI disruption creates opportunity for active managers37:30 China’s overcapacity, competition and global manufacturing edge42:00 India’s long-term growth drivers and valuation challenge47:00 Finding underappreciated quality in EM stocks52:01 Deglobalization, China and the future of global trade56:09 The one lesson Ian Smith would teach investors
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  The $2 Trillion Question | Tobias Carlisle on SpaceX, the AI Buildout, and the Rotation No One Sees 20.06.2026 58min

  Tobias Carlisle joins Excess Returns to discuss why today’s market may be setting up a major opportunity in value stocks, small caps and micro caps. We cover stretched market valuations, AI capex, SpaceX and other massive IPOs, the risk of speculative growth assumptions, and how Tobias builds systematic deep value portfolios in ZIG and DEEP.Tobias Carlisle on Xhttps://x.com/GreenbackdAcquirers Fundshttps://acquirersfunds.com/Topics covered:Why elevated market valuations point to lower forward returns, not necessarily an immediate exit from stocksThe case for small value, micro-cap value and mid-cap value after a long large-cap growth cycleWhy equal-weight indexes and small caps may be signaling a market leadership shiftWhether AI capex will create lasting profits or mostly benefit consumersThe parallels and differences between AI, the dot-com boom, railroads and fiber optic buildoutsHow AI spending is being financed and why the stock market may be demanding more compute investmentWhat the SpaceX IPO, OpenAI and Anthropic could mean for market supply and investor psychologyWhy base rates are being challenged by the growth of major technology platformsHow disruption can create value traps and why traditional valuation metrics can struggle in disrupted industriesThe energy demand implications of AI data centers and why nuclear and natural gas could matterHow Tobias combines valuation, quality, financial statements and portfolio construction in ZIG and DEEPWhy quarterly rebalancing may be a practical balance between timing luck, momentum and trading costsTimestamps:00:00 Why AI value may accrue to consumers04:00 What extreme market valuations say about future returns08:22 Small caps, equal weight and the Mag Seven reversal14:15 AI capex and lessons from past technology booms19:47 Who gets the profits from AI?23:00 Cash flow, debt and the AI spending race28:06 SpaceX, giant IPOs and market supply31:00 OpenAI, Anthropic and Mauboussin’s base rates35:17 Is buying the S&P 500 more speculative than investors realize?36:57 Value investing during disruptive technology cycles41:07 War, energy prices and the broadening trade45:32 Semiconductor valuations and aggressive growth assumptions47:30 How Tobias builds the ZIG and DEEP portfolios54:17 ETF rebalancing, timing luck and systematic value investing
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  The Trillion Dollar Gap | Aswath Damodaran on SpaceX, AI and the Big Market Delusion 19.06.2026 1t 8min

  Professor Aswath Damodaran joins Kai Wu on The Intangible Economy to break down how to value SpaceX, AI companies, intangible assets, and the future of value investing.We discuss why big markets do not automatically create big value, how AI CapEx is changing the character of major technology companies, and why the best investment stories still have to connect to the numbers.Subscribe on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe on AppleTopics covered:Valuing SpaceX after its IPO and why price matters even for great companiesHow Starlink, space launch, and xAI fit into SpaceX’s valuation storyWhy total addressable market can mislead investors in AI and other disruptive industriesThe problem with AI unit economics, data centers, power, water, and reinvestment needsWhy growth can destroy value when margins and returns on capital are weakHow intangible assets, R&D, future growth, and narratives should show up in valuationThe Big Market Delusion and how overconfidence drives boom and bust cyclesWhy AI CapEx is different from the dot-com boom and could create broader risksHow AI is changing the character of the Magnificent Seven and semiconductor companiesWhy value investing became rigid, ritualistic, and righteous, and how it can evolveTimestamps:00:00 Why great companies can still be bad investments01:03 Introducing Aswath Damodaran and The Intangible Economy01:49 SpaceX IPO, Starlink, xAI, and the challenge of valuing uncertainty05:31 Why Starlink became the core of SpaceX’s current revenue10:31 How Damodaran valued SpaceX across launch, connectivity, and AI14:07 Why AI’s huge market may still have difficult unit economics17:10 The tension between SpaceX competing in AI and renting data centers to competitors20:00 Why valuation should use distributions instead of false precision22:39 How stories and numbers work together in valuation26:45 Why investors confuse promises, potential, and businesses30:49 The Big Market Delusion and overconfidence in AI investing33:02 Why the AI CapEx boom is different from the dot-com bubble35:17 How AI infrastructure is changing the Magnificent Seven38:36 Nvidia, Micron, semiconductors, and the risk of peak cycle earnings41:00 Why the biggest AI market stories could be scary for society43:37 AI disruption, labor markets, and the speed of technological change46:30 Measuring which jobs and companies are most exposed to AI automation49:00 Why AI cost structure may look more like Spotify than software51:13 The unresolved business model questions for LLMs and AI agents52:29 Why traditional value investing lost its edge56:03 Passive investing, book value, and the blame game in value investing58:13 Why rigid value investing is vulnerable to AI disruption01:00:58 How value investing can adapt to intangible assets and uncertainty01:02:21 Why any company can be a good investment at the right price01:04:57 Why investing mistakes and track records are harder to judge than they look
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  Andy Constan on the SpaceX IPO, AI CapEx, and the End of the Buyback Tailwind 16.06.2026 59min

  In the third episode of First Principles with Andy Constan, Andy breaks down the changing structure of markets as the IPO window reopens, AI CapEx accelerates, and corporate buybacks shift toward new equity supply. We discuss what the SpaceX IPO says about capital markets, whether AI spending can create disinflationary growth, why the consumer is still holding up, and what could challenge the current market bubble.Follow First Principles on SpotifyFollow First Principles of Apple PodcastsTopics covered:Why IPOs are central to the purpose of public marketsHow Andy evaluates whether the SpaceX IPO workedWhy issuers may want IPOs to trade higher after pricingThe shift from stock buybacks to new equity issuanceWhy AI CapEx is changing the supply and demand for sharesHow hyperscaler spending is being funded through cash, bonds, and stockThe economic test for whether AI investment pays offDisinflationary productivity growth versus labor displacementWhy the current economy is still supported by consumptionThe role of wealth effects and consumer dissavingWhy falling oil prices may not eliminate inflation pressureWhat Andy is watching in Fed policy, tariffs, AI CapEx, and equity issuanceHow Kevin Warsh could approach rates, QT, and the Fed balance sheetTimestamps:00:00 Intro and key themes04:18 How Andy reads the SpaceX IPO08:27 Why underwriters and regulators want IPOs to work13:00 Why issuers may want IPOs to trade higher17:05 From stock buybacks to new equity supply21:06 The 600 to 700 billion dollar shift in share supply26:42 The economic test for AI tokens32:09 Can AI create disinflationary productivity growth?38:10 Is AI CapEx holding up the economy?41:00 Wealth effects, dissaving, and the consumer45:52 Oil prices, war, and inflation49:07 Jalen Brunson, incentives, and long-term value52:00 Fed policy, tariffs, and what matters this summer55:36 Kevin Warsh, QT, and the Fed balance sheet58:42 Closing thoughtsNo information on this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed in the podcast may be holdings of the firms of the hosts or their clients.
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  The SpaceX IPO Meets a Huge Options Expiration | Brent Kochuba on What Comes Next 13.06.2026 1t 8min

  In this episode of The OPEX Effect, Jack Forehand and Brent Kochuba break down the market structure impact of the SpaceX IPO, options expiration, dealer gamma, volatility, and the next major setup for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. They discuss why SpaceX may trade more on flows than fundamentals, how call buying could create a gamma squeeze, and why June OPEX, VIX expiration, FOMC, oil, Iran headlines, and index inclusion could all collide at once.Subscribe to the OPEX Effect on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to the OPEX Effect on Apple PodcastsTopics covered:Why SpaceX is a flows game at the start of tradingHow the SpaceX IPO could affect liquidity across mega cap tech stocksWhy fundamentals may not matter when index flows and forced buying dominateThe role of Nasdaq, Russell, and S&P 500 index decisions in SpaceX tradingHow options could create a gamma squeeze in SpaceXWhy dealer hedging flows can push stocks higher or lowerWhat June options expiration could mean for the S&P 500Why VIX expiration and FOMC create a key market windowHow Core1M signaled the recent volatility spasmWhy expensive calls, not put buying, drove the recent market stressThe key S&P 500 levels Brent is watching into OPEXHow oil, rates, inflation, and Fed policy could affect market volatilityWhy Nasdaq options pricing is diverging from the S&P 500How SpaceX index inclusion could widen the gap between Nasdaq and the S&PWhat would make Brent add protection or look for another short-term market correctionTimestamps:00:00 Opening clips and the SpaceX flow setup05:27 Elon Musk net worth after the SpaceX IPO07:13 SpaceX, liquidity, Mag Seven selling, and index demand12:48 Why SpaceX may trade on flows before fundamentals17:59 What options trading could change for SpaceX22:05 How call buying can create a gamma squeeze28:24 Why June OPEX matters more than a normal expiration33:55 VIX expiration, FOMC, and market path dependency37:20 The Core1M signal and the recent volatility spasm41:22 The S&P 500 gamma map and key risk levels46:25 Why expensive calls drove the market stress50:14 Oil, rates, inflation, and the Fed setup57:03 The JPMorgan collar and the 6900 to 7000 support zone58:32 Nasdaq versus S&P 500 after the SpaceX IPO01:03:14 Brent’s summary, SpaceX gamma squeeze risk, and the next market setup