State of Play

Odcinki

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  Is the U.S.-Philippines Alliance Really at a Historic High? 11.09.2026 24min

  A recent opinion poll found that Filipinos have the most positive view of President Trump of any of the 36 countries surveyed. On the sidelines of the Manila Strategy Forum, Amb. John Negroponte and Greg Poling join Will to assess the strength of the U.S.-Philippines alliance, the drivers of Filipinos' positive attitudes towards the U.S., and what might threaten bilateral ties going forward. "Manila Strategy Forum" CSIS, September 9 to 10, 2026.
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  Will Trump’s Pressure on Canada Break the USMCA? 27.08.2026 35min

  When faced with President Trump’s economic pressure, most U.S. allies have fallen into line. Canada bucked the trend and stood firm. This week, Will talks with Chris Hernandez-Roy and Diego Marroquin Bitar to discuss if Canada can withstand U.S. pressure, what lies ahead, and what U.S.-Canada tensions mean for the future of free trade in North America. Christopher Gundermann, Hugh Grant-Chapman, and Diego Marroquín Bitar, "Understanding President Trump’s New Tariffs on Canadian Imports," CSIS, July 21, 2026. Diego Marroquín Bitar and Juan Carlos Baker Pineda, "Inside the Mechanics of the 2026 USMCA Review," CSIS, October 27, 2025. Diego Marroquin Bitar, Christopher Hernandez-Roy, and Earl Anthony Wayne, "USMCA Review 2026," CSIS, August 18, 2025. 
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  Did Iran Attack U.S. Water Systems? 17.08.2026 41min

  Cyberattacks targeting water and wastewater utilities have been reported in at least a dozen states across the United States since late July. Although there has been no widespread contamination or immediate threat to public drinking water, it is a serious and apparently coordinated attack. Nikita Shah, Caitlin Welsh, and Lauryn Williams join Will Todman to discuss why U.S. critical infrastructure is vulnerable, what can be done to respond, and if there is enough evidence to blame Iran. State of Play audience survey Nikita Shah, "The Cyberattacks on the U.S Water Sector and the Iran Question: Escalation or Opportunism?" CSIS, August 14, 2026. Franck Gbaguidi and Caitlin Welsh, "Rethinking Water as a Frontline Security Risk," CSIS, August 5, 2026. Lauryn Williams, "Cyberattacks on U.S. Water Systems" CSIS, August 4, 2026.
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  Is Cuba Nearing an Inflection Point? 13.08.2026 31min

  President Trump is ramping up economic pressure on Cuba and has instructed U.S. intelligence agencies to find a new leader who could work with the United States – like Delcy Rodriguez in Venezuela. Christopher Hernandez Roy and William LeoGrande join Will to discuss how the Trump administration’s strategy on Cuba is evolving, how Cuban leaders are responding, and if we are nearing an inflection point. State of Play audience survey Christopher Hernandez-Roy, Mark Cancian, and Henry Ziemer, "The Next Caribbean Crisis? Assessing U.S. Military Options Toward Cuba," CSIS, June 3, 2026. William M. LeoGrande and Peter Kornbluh, "Is the United States on the Verge of Military Intervention in Cuba?" Foreign Policy, May 22, 2026. Christopher Hernandez-Roy et al, "Preparing for the Consequences of Collapse in Cuba," CSIS, April 9, 2026. William M. LeoGrande and Peter Kornbluh, Back Channel to Cuba: The Hidden History of Negotiations between Washington and Havana, University of North Carolina Press, 2014.
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  How Should the U.S. Counter China in the Pacific?  30.07.2026 35min

  A Chinese submarine recently launched an intercontinental ballistic missile into the Pacific, and China has been on the hunt for a security foothold in the region. Meanwhile, the United States has cut assistance and reduced its diplomatic presence in the Pacific. This week, Charles Edel and Kathryn Paik join Will to discuss China’s ambitions in the Pacific, how U.S. interests in the region are evolving, and how Pacific countries are navigating geopolitical competition. State of Play audience survey Kathryn Paik, "Bolstering Pacific Resilience: A New Paradigm for Engagement by U.S. Allies and Partners," CSIS, July 21, 2026. Joseph Rodgers, Bonny Lin, and Charles Edel, "Unpacking China’s Recent SLBM Test into the Pacific," CSIS, July 17, 2026. Charles Edel and Kathryn Paik, "The Peril of American Neglect in the Pacific," Foreign Affairs, October 10, 2024.
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  Was This World Cup More Political?   17.07.2026 57min

  The 2026 FIFA World Cup unfolded against a backdrop of geopolitical tension, trade disputes, and competing national ambitions. But did these politics shape the tournament more than in previous years? Max Bergmann, Victor Cha, and Enoh Ebong join Will to assess the geopolitical dimensions of this year's World Cup in a live episode of State of Play. They examine how host nation diplomacy, soft power competition, and economic interests played out on and off the pitch, and what the tournament revealed about the emerging world order. Gretchen Scott and Andrew Friedman, "Protecting Human Rights at the World Cup: Progress on Paper, Gaps on the Ground," CSIS, July 15, 2026. Victor Cha and Andy Lim, "The 2026 World Cup: Sports and Conflict," CSIS, June 10, 2026.
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  Have Politics Jeopardized the Ebola Response?  02.07.2026 32min

  The current Ebola outbreak comes after major cuts in humanitarian and health aid and is spreading in a deeply insecure environment. This week, Steve Morrison and Michaela Simoneau of the CSIS Global Health Policy Center join Will to discuss the degree to which politics have hampered the response. They assess the global response to date, the impact of the Trump administration’s policies, and the challenges of the local context. J. Stephen Morrison and Michaela Simoneau, "Managing DRC’s Ebola Crisis," CSIS, June 18, 2026. J. Stephen Morrison, "Dr. Salim Abdool Karim, Chair, Africa CDC Emergency Consultative Group: "Congolese doctors know how to treat Ebola patients," CSIS, June 22, 2026. Elizabeth Cameron and J. Stephen Morrison, "America knows how to defeat Ebola" UVA Miller Center, June 29, 2026. "Ebola in America: Epidemic of Fear" CSIS, May 19, 2016
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  Was the G7 Summit in France a Success? 17.06.2026 41min

  The G7 Summit may have defied expectations. President Trump stayed until the end, there were no big bust-ups, and lots of joint policy statements. Victor Cha, Kristi Govella, Phil Luck, and Caitlin Welsh join Will to assess how meaningful the outcomes were, what the summit tells us about the United States’ relationship with its allies, and what the value of the G7 is in the evolving international order. Victor Cha, "Who Are G7’s Top Performers?" CSIS, June 12, 2026. CSIS scholars, "Press Briefing: Previewing the G7 Summit," CSIS, June 9, 2026.
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  Trump's Iran Deal: What Comes Next? 15.06.2026 43min

  The United States and Iran announced a framework deal that includes a 60-day ceasefire and reopens the Strait of Hormuz. CSIS Middle East Program experts Mona Yacoubian, Michael Ratney, Paul Salem, and Susan Ziadeh assess the winners and losers of the deal, what challenges lie ahead, and what it means for the emerging order in the Middle East.
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  How Should the United States Counter the CRINK Axis? 12.06.2026 46min

  The recent Xi–Kim summit has further strengthened ties between China and North Korea, with potential implications for the broader dynamics among the CRINK countries and regional security. Dr. Victor Cha, Igor Khrestin, Joseph Kim, and Dr. Maria Snegovaya will join host Will Todman to discuss CRINK’s key vulnerabilities and examine U.S. policy recommendations for addressing the challenges the grouping poses to democracy, human rights, economic security, and national security. The discussion will draw on the GWBI’s recent report on CRINK and explore the implications of growing alignment among these authoritarian actors.
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  Is Ukraine Turning the Tide? 04.06.2026 34min

  Four years into the war, Ukraine may finally have the upper hand. Will speaks with Max Bergmann and Maria Snegovaya about their recent trip to Kyiv, Ukraine's key advantages, Russia's challenges, and if the shifting balance of power means the war may finally end soon. Max Bergmann and Maria Snegovaya, "War, Inflation, and Putin's Paranoia: has Russian Public Opinion Begun to Shift?" CSIS, May 14, 2026. Max Bergmann and Donatienne Ruy, "Reflections from Ukraine, Crisis in the UK, and the EU's Corruption-Fighting Toolkit ft. Kövesi," CSIS, May 22, 2026.
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  Is Something Big About to Happen with North Korea? 29.05.2026 34min

  A flurry of diplomatic activity and a reported visit of Xi Jinping to North Korea has heightened speculation that something is afoot. Victor Cha, Tom Christensen, and Edgard Kagan join Will to discuss what these signals indicate, how relations between North Korea and China are shifting, and what a Trump-Kim meeting could achieve. Victor Cha and Andy Lim, “Can Sports Diplomacy Open a Door on the Korean Peninsula?” CSIS, May 4, 2026. Edgard Kagan, “Trump-Xi Summit in Beijing: Managing the World’s Most Important Relationship,” CSIS, May 8, 2026.
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  What Can Negotiations Between Lebanon and Israel Achieve? 26.05.2026 33min

  Under U.S. pressure, Lebanon and Israel recently entered into direct negotiations for the first time in 30 years. This week, Mona Yacoubian and Paul Salem join Will to discuss what each side is hoping to get out of the negotiations, how the talks fit into the broader regional context, and what the prospects for success are. Paul Salem, “Lebanon and Israel Talks: Empowering Diplomacy Over Open-Ended Conflict,” CSIS, May 14, 2026. Mona Yacoubian, “Lebanon’s Moment of Reckoning,” Foreign Policy, April 21, 2026.
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  What did the Trump-Xi Summit Achieve? 15.05.2026 59min

  The U.S.-China summit covered trade, investment, the war with Iran, and Taiwan. Edgard Kagan, Scott Kennedy, and Bonny Lin joined Will to discuss how successful the summit was, what it means for the future of U.S.-China relations, and what we should be watching going forward. Edgard Kagan and Bonny Lin, “Unpacking President Trump’s Visit to China | State of Play,” CSIS, May 15, 2026. Scott Kennedy, “A Confident Beijing Welcomes President Trump,” CSIS, May 11, 2026.
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  Is a Cold Peace with North Korea Possible? 07.05.2026 41min

  North Korea has resisted decades of international denuclearization efforts, including the world’s most crippling sanctions regime. Victor Cha and Sydney Seiler join Will to discuss why U.S. strategy has failed, how the strategic landscape has shifted and increased North Korea's leverage, and what a better strategy would look like. Victor Cha, “North Korea as It Is: The Case for a Cold Peace,” Foreign Affairs, May/June 2026. Sydney Seiler, “North Korea in 2026: Intentions, Realities, and Response,” CSIS, February 2, 2026.
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  Has the Iran War Transformed the Middle East's Future? 22.04.2026 52min

  The war with Iran has roiled the economies of the Middle East, shattered trust between Iran and Arab Gulf states, challenged security arrangements, and highlighted the region's geopolitical importance. But looking ahead, how much has the war really changed the region's future, and what is likely to remain more constant? Vali Nasr, Michael Ratney, Mona Yacoubian, and Susan Ziadeh joined Will to discuss how the war has reshaped the Middle East. Maria Fantappie and Vali Nasr, "Can Saudi Arabia Keep Hedging?" Foreign Affairs, May/June 2026. Mona Yacoubian, "Why “Mowing the Grass” Won’t Work in Iran," CSIS, April 17, 2026.
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  Will Orban’s Defeat Transform Europe? 13.04.2026 19min

  Prime minister Victor Orban lost the Hungarian elections after 16 years in power. Péter Magyar’s landslide victory gave him a broad mandate for change and the ability to do so. Donatienne Ruy joins Will to discuss what changes he will make, what it means for Hungary’s relationship with the EU, and if this will be a game changer for Europe. Donatienne Ruy, “What Happens After Hungary’s Election? Four Scenarios to Watch,” CSIS, April 3, 2026. Donatienne Ruy and Maria Snegovaya, “What Is at Stake in Hungary’s Election?” CSIS, March 11, 2026.
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  Has the Iran war upended U.S.-China negotiations? 09.04.2026 28min

  President Trump delayed his planned summit with Xi Jinping from March to May due to the war with Iran. Scott Kennedy and Brian Hart join Will to assess the war's impact on the talks, if the war has changed China's negotiating strategy, and if we should expect a different outcome from the May summit as a result of the delay. Scott Kennedy, "The United States Needs a Coherent China Policy," CSIS, October 6, 2025. Bonny Lin, "Why a Venezuela-Style Operation Would Backfire for Beijing," CSIS, January 9, 2026.
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  What Are the Hidden Costs of the War with Iran? 25.03.2026 49min

  Beyond increasing gas prices, the war with Iran has had significant ripple effects for food security, economic security, and humanitarian crises in the Middle East and beyond. Emily Harding, Caitlin Welsh, and Mona Yacoubian joined Will to discuss the short- and long-term implications of the war that are getting less attention, and what can be done to mitigate their worst effects. Emily Harding, "Data Is Now the Front Line of Warfare," CSIS, March 19, 2026 David Michel, "Could Iran Disrupt the Gulf Countries’ Desalinated Water Supplies?" CSIS, March 19, 2026. Mona Yacoubian, "Iran’s War Strategy: Don’t Calibrate—Escalate," CSIS, March 16, 2026. Emma Curtis, Joely Virzi, and Caitlin Welsh, "Chokepoint: How the War with Iran Threatens Global Food Security," CSIS, March 11, 2026.
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  How did Japan Navigate Trump's Pressure on Iran? 20.03.2026 18min

  Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi was the first U.S. ally to visit President Trump in the White House after he called on allies to help with the war on Iran. Nick Szechenyi joins Will to discuss what Takaichi had hoped to achieve in her visit, how she handled Trump's pressure, and the playbook she's developing for U.S. allies. Kristi Govella and Jane Nakano, "What Are the Implications of the Iran Conflict for Japan?" CSIS, March 20, 2026. "Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Strengthens U.S.-Japan Alliance for the Benefit of All Americans," The White House, March 19, 2026.