Top Traders Unplugged

Episódios

• 
  IL53: How Bonds Quietly Built the Modern World ft. Robin Wigglesworth 16.09.2026 1h 3min

  Today we talk with the editor of the Financial Times’ Alphaville blog, Robin Wigglesworth. Robin is the author of A Fabulous Debt - the Epic Story of How Bonds Built the Modern World. He tells the story of the bond market’s beginnings in Venice and how the ability to issue and trade bonds was an essential aspect of its rise to power. Robin explains why historically bond markets and democracy have gone hand-in-hand. Innovations in how bonds are structured and traded also have the ability alter market fundamentals and he explains how this happened with the US junk bond market pioneered by Michael Milken. We talk about likely future innovations and finish with a discussion of current bond market turmoil and the implications for both the Fed and Treasury.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Robin on X and Read his Book.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - How junk bonds changed the market00:56 - Introducing Robin Wigglesworth and A Fabulous Debt03:39 - Why ignorance can actually help you understand history07:50 - How Venice accidentally invented the bond market12:55 - How bonds helped strengthen democracy and accountability17:31 - How Britain turned bonds into a global reserve asset24:43 - Why strong bond markets often create stronger countries28:56 - Could Europe ever create a true Eurobond market?32:19 - How the modern international bond market was born39:39 - Michael Milken and the rise of junk bonds44:21 - How Milken changed the market he was studying48:51 - Tokenization and the next evolution of fixed income49:28 - Why bond ETFs may have actually improved liquidity55:24 - What Treasury buybacks are really trying to achieve57:33 - Why Robin thinks the buybacks won’t solve the problemCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
• 
  SI417: What Happens When AI Starts Trading the Markets ft. Rob Carver 12.09.2026 1h 8min

  Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Rob Carver discuss a market that feels unusually calm despite growing pressure beneath the surface. They look at rising concerns around government debt and bond yields, recent changes to a major managed futures ETF, and why style drift matters for systematic investors. Rob explains why simplicity and robustness remain essential when building trading systems, and where discretion can and cannot fit into a systematic process. They also explore the risks of using AI in quantitative investing, whether AI-driven traders could change market behavior, and why adapting trend speed to volatility may be more complicated than it first appears.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Introduction and Rob’s return from the summer break02:03 - Why everyone is suddenly talking about bonds05:07 - Treasury buybacks and the potential for new bond trends07:40 - What happened to the Simplify managed futures ETF?14:34 - Style drift, investor expectations and changing strategies17:15 - Why it feels like something is about to happen in markets20:23 - Trend following performance and the year so far23:32 - How much should systematic investors actually optimize?31:38 - Can discretion and systematic trading really work together?36:37 - Where human judgment belongs in a trading strategy40:55 - Why traders may be better at buying than selling44:21 - AI, quant research and the risks of automated trading52:42 - Revisiting volatility and trend following55:47 - Why not all high-volatility markets are the same01:00:23 - The quant winter and why manager diversification mattersCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
• 
  GM107: What If AI Actually Pushes Interest Rates Higher? ft. Matt Klein 09.09.2026 1h 2min

  Alan Dunne is joined by Matt Klein to discuss whether the excitement around AI is getting ahead of the economic reality. Matt explains why the parallels with the 1990s productivity boom may be misleading and why stronger productivity could actually push interest rates higher rather than lower. They explore the surge in AI investment, what rising bond yields really tell us about the economy, and whether US debt levels are as worrying as they appear. The conversation also turns to China’s enormous trade surplus, growing global imbalances, the prospect of European tariffs, currency intervention and what Kevin Warsh’s new Fed task forces could mean for monetary policy.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on LinkedIn.Follow Matt on X.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and Matt Klein’s return to Top Traders Unplugged01:57 - Kevin Warsh, Jackson Hole and the outlook for the Fed05:15 - Why the AI boom may not look like the 1990s11:39 - How quickly could AI actually boost productivity?15:47 - Are we seeing an AI productivity boom in the data?18:56 - Does AI change how we should think about the economy?21:41 - AI spending, data centers and the risk of a capex bust26:18 - Why bond yields could have further to rise31:13 - When higher interest rates might actually be good news33:17 - US debt sustainability and the risk of a bad equilibrium37:04 - China and the return of global economic imbalances42:11 - How China’s massive trade surplus is affecting the world48:50 - Tariffs, Europe and how countries might respond to China52:01 - Why the US intervened in the Japanese yen58:33 - Kevin Warsh’s Fed task forces and what could change nextCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
• 
  SI416: 137 Years of Trend: What the Evidence Really Shows ft. Yoav Git 05.09.2026 1h 14min

  Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Yoav Git examine why trend following continues to endure despite decades of changing markets and persistent skepticism. They revisit AQR’s 137-year study of trend following, exploring diversification, volatility scaling and the behavioral and economic forces behind persistent trends. The conversation also turns to the mechanics of commodity markets, using the 2020 oil collapse to show how inventories, storage capacity and forced futures rolls can produce extreme price moves. Along the way, they discuss investor trust, systematic risk intervention, CTA implementation and why understanding market structure matters just as much as building the signal.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Introduction and what’s on Yoav's radar01:54 - Why investor relationships are ultimately built on trust06:36 - CTA ETFs, strategy changes and investor transparency10:55 - Multi-strategy funds and the cost of complexity12:36 - TTU competition winners and the August trend update16:14 - Global rates, Japan and opportunities beyond U.S. bonds19:07 - August performance and the Trend Barometer21:09 - Correlation, volatility and how CTAs manage portfolio risk25:09 - Human intervention inside a systematic investment process29:40 - Where different commodity market participants operate31:44 - Revisiting 137 years of evidence for trend following38:30 - Has trend following performance actually deteriorated?43:58 - Why diversification is fundamental to trend following51:16 - Oil squeezes, storage and the mechanics of commodity markets58:00 - Carry, inventories and oil price elasticity01:04:36 - What really caused oil prices to turn negative in 202001:09:40 - What commodity market structure teaches trend followersCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
• 
  GM106: What Happens When the Debt Finally Matters ft. Marvin Barth 02.09.2026 1h 24min

  Marvin Barth joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Cem Karsan for a wide-ranging debate about the Fed, inflation and the growing pressures on the US economy. Barth argues that central bankers have become too confident in models that cannot fully capture reality, while the conversation quickly turns to Kevin Warsh, Scott Bessent and the power of signaling in financial markets. From there, Cem and Marvin "clash" over austerity, debt monetization, populism and inequality before examining why inflation expectations may matter more than individual shocks. We round this super energetic conversation by exploring the coming historic El Niño, commodity disruptions and what Warsh’s recent dovish turn could reveal about the future of Fed policy.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Marvin on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why inflation expectations matter more than anything else01:05 - Introducing Marvin Barth04:46 - From salmon fishing to the Federal Reserve09:09 - Has central banking become too confident in its own models?16:25 - Bessent, Warsh and what Treasury buybacks really mean18:15 - Why signaling may matter more than the actual policy25:56 - Can the US actually solve its debt problem through austerity?31:25 - Debt, inflation, China and the pressures building in the system35:31 - Is there another way out for the US economy?40:29 - The big debate over populism and inequality47:39 - Free markets, fairness and who actually benefits57:59 - Why inflation ultimately comes down to expectations59:46 - Austerity versus monetizing the debt01:02:06 - How El Niño could reshape inflation and emerging markets01:11:26 - Has Kevin Warsh already changed course at the Fed?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
• 
  SI415: Maybe This Is Just What Normal Markets Look Like ft. Alan Dunne 29.08.2026 1h 6min

  Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Alan Dunne examine how a changing macro regime is reshaping markets and the role of trend following. They discuss unusual U.S. intervention in the yen, mounting sensitivity around Treasury yields, and questions surrounding Kevin Warsh’s communication and the Fed’s credibility. Alan identifies three fractures defining the new regime: persistent inflation, growing debt sustainability concerns, and the erosion of institutional norms. They also explore why trend following has performed differently this decade, particularly during periods of bond market stress, before comparing AQR and GMO’s strikingly different long-term return assumptions and what they imply for portfolio construction.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Introduction and what’s been on Alan’s radar01:55 - Why U.S. intervention in the yen matters07:04 - Zuckerberg, Meta and the $16.68 billion question08:31 - August trend following performance and market intervention12:16 - Why CTA performance is increasingly dispersed16:08 - Kevin Warsh, the Fed balance sheet and Treasury supply18:56 - Has short-term trend following structurally degraded?22:17 - Macro narratives versus systematic positioning24:37 - Fed communication, credibility and the Warsh reaction function30:16 - Bessent, Warsh, Druckenmiller and the battle over bond yields34:23 - The three fractures reshaping the macro regime41:42 - How trend following has changed in the new regime49:54 - Commodities, deglobalization and diversification52:29 - AQR versus GMO: radically different forecasts for future returns01:02:08 - Debt sustainability and what investors should watch nextCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
• 
  IL52: Why Staying Calm Is the Ultimate Investing Edge ft. David Booth 26.08.2026 47min

  In today’s episode we talk with a pioneer of modern asset management, Dimensional Fund Advisors founder David Booth. David founded Dimensional in 1981 and it has since grown to over $1 trillion in assets, making it one of the most successful quantitative investment firms in history. We talk with him about his new book, Stay Calm: Learn to Embrace Uncertainty in Investing and Life. We discuss his early career working on both the world’s first index fund and the first active quant strategy developed by finance legends Fischer Black and Myron Scholes. David explains why successful investing involves embracing uncertainty - because it is that uncertainty that generates long-run returns. He explains why we should abandon predicting markets and focus instead on planning. We end by discussing why he is both a realist and optimist and how each of us can cultivate the same mindset.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow David on LinkedIn and Read his Book.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why uncertainty creates opportunity for long term investors01:01 - David Booth's journey from Kansas to pioneering modern investing06:13 - The birth of index investing and the origins of Dimensional10:21 - Why investing is about managing uncertainty not predicting markets13:00 - Why everyone should own part of the market14:00 - Human ingenuity, market resilience and the lessons of history18:02 - Updating research without abandoning first principles23:38 - Has the rise of index investing changed the market?28:45 - Diversification beyond the Magnificent Seven29:52 - Tuning out market noise and focusing on what matters32:23 - Why life events should shape your portfolio more than headlines34:53 - Plan don't predict and learning to stay calm39:02 - Optimism, realism and why markets continue to work42:33 - Why investors have never had it betterCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
• 
  SI414: The Hidden Risks Beneath the Treasury Market ft. Mark Rzepczynski 22.08.2026 1h 14min

  Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Mark Rzepczynski examine the warning signs emerging beneath seemingly calm markets, from extreme single-stock moves and commodity shortages to growing strains in the U.S. Treasury market. They explore how leveraged hedge funds and basis trades have become increasingly important to Treasury liquidity, and why market plumbing can matter as much as price signals. The conversation then turns to the evolution of trend following, comparing different approaches to signals and position sizing, the benefits of combining methodologies, and why short-term trend strategies face structural challenges. Finally, Mark reflects on the legacy of quantitative trading pioneer Victor Niederhoffer.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Introduction and summer reflections01:42 - Warning signs and rumblings beneath the markets07:06 - Extreme single-stock moves and hidden risk10:09 - Copper, inventories and commodity squeezes13:08 - Oil markets and the danger of disappearing buffer stocks14:51 - August trend following performance16:01 - Why market uncertainty could create new trends20:37 - The Treasury buyback program and bond market liquidity27:10 - Is the Treasury quietly stabilizing long-term yields?31:56 - The plumbing problem inside the U.S. Treasury market36:28 - Hedge funds, basis trades and leverage41:40 - Can Treasuries still be considered a safe asset?47:17 - Three different approaches to trend following52:25 - How investors should diversify across trend managers56:49 - The “podification” of trend following59:29 - Why short-term trend following struggles01:03:19 - Victor Niederhoffer and the foundations of quantitative tradingCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
• 
  ALO38: Why the Old Rules of Diversification Are Changing ft. Mike Pyle 19.08.2026 1h 4min

  Alan Dunne is joined by Mike Pyle, Deputy Head of BlackRock’s Portfolio Management Group, to explore how a supply-driven world is reshaping markets and portfolio construction. They discuss the transition from the demand-constrained 2010s to an era defined by scarcity, fiscal activism, geopolitical shocks and the immense capital demands of AI. Pyle explains why bonds may no longer provide the diversification they once did, why hedge funds and market-neutral strategies are becoming increasingly important, and how portable alpha can separate beta from return generation. They also examine AI productivity, equity valuations and what should replace the traditional 60/40 portfolio.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Mike on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 Mike Pyle’s journey from policymaking to investing04:30 The shift from a demand-driven to a supply-driven world07:29 Why the stock-bond relationship has changed12:09 The return of fiscal activism15:52 AI, scarcity and the growing demands on capital19:57 When will AI productivity begin to transform the economy?22:53 AI, inflation and the future of interest rates25:23 AI valuations, earnings and whether markets are in a bubble29:48 Building portfolios for the new macro regime33:35 Private markets, income and hedge fund diversification37:06 Why multi-strategy investing matters42:19 Leverage, factor exposure and lessons from the quant crisis46:08 Why the environment for hedge funds has improved48:39 Portable alpha and separating alpha from beta52:51 What comes after the traditional 60/40 portfolio56:47 How AI could transform investment management01:00:19 Mike Pyle’s advice for the next generation of investorsCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
• 
  SI413: Why Trend Following Is More Than Crisis Alpha ft. Andrew Beer & Tom Wrobel 15.08.2026 1h 21min

  Niels Kaastrup-Larsen is joined by Andrew Beer and Tom Wrobel to examine a remarkable period for systematic investing. They discuss how CTAs have navigated volatile moves across equities, commodities, currencies and rates while preserving strong gains, and why diversification has been central to that resilience. The conversation explores leverage, the renewed interest in managed accounts and portable alpha, alongside the growing distinction between trend and non-trend strategies. They also challenge the traditional framing of CTAs as crisis alpha, debate whether greater complexity actually improves returns, and examine the difficulties investors face when selecting managers and benchmarking an industry where yesterday’s winners may not remain tomorrow’s leaders.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Andrew on Twitter.Follow Tom on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and eclipse mania02:57 - Volatility, valuations and a changing market environment06:22 - Trend Barometer falls as opportunities narrow08:21 - How CTAs have navigated 202610:10 - An extraordinary year for systematic investing14:07 - Yen intervention and CTA resilience17:11 - Trend versus non-trend performance22:20 - August performance and the systematic landscape24:48 - Active commodity strategies versus traditional CTAs29:39 - Situational Awareness and the risks of leverage32:14 - Managed accounts, capital efficiency and risk control37:49 - Are systematic strategies becoming over-engineered?42:45 - The growing divide between trend and non-trend CTAs50:34 - Reframing trend following as all-weather alpha55:07 - Why the crisis alpha narrative can be misleading01:04:06 - The hidden challenges of CTA benchmarks01:12:12 - Manager selection and diversification across CTAs01:14:15 - Does non-trend really improve a CTA portfolio?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
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  ALO37: Investing in the New World Order ft. Charles-Henry Monchau 12.08.2026 1h 2min

  Charles-Henry Monchau joins Alan Dunne to discuss how geopolitics, artificial intelligence and structural economic shifts are reshaping global investing. They explore the AI supercycle, the changing balance between the US, China and Europe, sovereign debt, inflation, commodities and the future of asset allocation. Charles explains why investors should focus on long-term structural themes rather than short-term market noise and why the biggest opportunities may lie beyond the current AI infrastructure boom. The conversation also examines Europe’s competitiveness, China’s innovation strategy and the risks that could define the next phase of the investment cycle.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Charles on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Charles-Henry Monchau's path into investing03:49 - The new geopolitical order and global investing09:02 - Is artificial intelligence inflationary or deflationary?12:49 - The AI CapEx supercycle and future market winners18:41 - Are markets in an earnings bubble?21:27 - Capital spending, debt issuance and market liquidity25:22 - Sovereign debt and the future of asset allocation28:13 - Gold, fiscal dominance and reserve currencies32:27 - Kevin Warsh and the future of the Federal Reserve40:36 - China's innovation strategy and investment outlook43:49 - Building portfolios around AI winners and losers48:12 - Commodities, biotech and defense opportunities51:10 - Can Europe remain competitive?57:23 - The biggest risks facing investors today58:45 - Career advice for the next generation of investorsCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
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  SI412: Portable Alpha: Asking the Questions That Matter ft. Harry Moore 08.08.2026 1h 19min

  Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Harry Moore explore the latest developments in trend following, the AI investment boom and why diversification matters most when markets come under pressure. They discuss CTA performance, market dispersion, portable alpha, cash efficient portfolio construction and the role of trend following during major market drawdowns. The conversation also examines how artificial intelligence is transforming quantitative research, the practical challenges of portfolio implementation and new research linking classic Turtle Trading principles to modern portfolio theory.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Harry on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Market headlines, AI investing and recent macro developments09:32 - Trend following performance and July market review18:42 - How market selection drives CTA performance22:21 - The AI trade and why trend following provides portfolio resilience30:36 - How AI is transforming quantitative research36:07 - Portable alpha and why cash efficiency matters46:14 - Cash buffers, margin management and implementation risks56:33 - Correlation, diversification and building resilient portfolios58:15 - The mathematics behind the Turtle Trading rules01:08:54 - Why risk management has always been the core of trend following01:11:28 - Understanding leverage in portable alpha strategies01:18:32 - Listener questions and final thoughtsCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
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  ALO36: The Endowment Playbook for Long-Term Investing ft. Paul Chai 05.08.2026 1h 1min

  Paul Chai joins Alan Dunne to discuss what it takes to manage a perpetual investment portfolio designed to support future generations. As CIO of the Kansas State University Foundation, Paul explains how disciplined asset allocation, thoughtful manager selection and strong governance create resilient long-term results. The conversation explores endowment investing, private markets, hedge funds, portfolio construction and the importance of building a decision-making culture where diverse perspectives are encouraged. It is a wide-ranging discussion about investing with humility, managing uncertainty and creating an investment process that can endure through changing market environments.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Paul on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why better investment decisions start with diverse thinking01:02 - Paul Chai's journey from engineering to institutional investing04:50 - Managing a perpetual endowment for future generations08:48 - Building resilient strategic asset allocations11:54 - The advantages of managing a $1.2 billion endowment15:29 - Portfolio construction beyond the traditional 60/40 model20:57 - Strategic asset allocation versus total portfolio investing24:05 - Lessons from the Yale Endowment model26:26 - Finding unconventional investment opportunities31:21 - Building a diversifying hedge fund portfolio38:02 - Why CTA strategies no longer fit the portfolio43:01 - Manager selection, due diligence and finding alpha45:39 - The importance of grit when selecting investment managers51:25 - Building better investment teams and decision-making cultures57:20 - Advice for the next generation of long-term investorsCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
• 
  SI411: Why the Best Portfolios Are Built to Be Wrong ft. David Dredge & Richard Brennan 01.08.2026 1h 59min

  The future isn’t hidden. It hasn’t been written yet. That idea anchors this foundational conversation between Dave Dredge, Richard Brennan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen, on what risk really means in markets. They challenge the mathematics behind modern portfolio construction, exposing how calm conditions can conceal leverage, how diversification can fail when it matters most, and why familiar measures such as volatility and Sharpe ratios often miss the forces that lead to permanent loss. From path dependency and complex adaptive systems to trend following, convexity and the geometry of wealth, this episode offers a different framework for investing under uncertainty. For anyone responsible for preserving and compounding capital, this is essential listening. Because the strongest portfolio is not the one built around being right, but the one prepared to survive being wrong.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Follow David on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Market review, July performance and introducing Dave Dredge08:01 - Why markets are complex adaptive systems18:49 - Price insensitive investors and the hidden drivers of markets26:03 - How market participants create fat tails and volatility31:38 - Where major market moves really come from39:05 - Ergodicity and why sequence matters in investing46:37 - The forest fire analogy for understanding financial risk51:15 - Why calm markets often hide the greatest dangers56:13 - Leverage, convexity and the source of market fragility01:00:53 - Why optimal portfolio construction can increase risk01:05:38 - Football, convexity and building resilient portfolios01:13:03 - Why the Sharpe ratio fails to measure real risk01:21:40 - Lessons for trend followers navigating complex marketsCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
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  IL51: Why Most Recessions Are Completely Misunderstood ft. Tyler Goodspeed 29.07.2026 1h 1min

  Why do recessions happen? Tyler Goodspeed joins Kevin Coldiron to challenge some of the most deeply held beliefs in economics. Drawing on more than three centuries of data from the United States and the United Kingdom, he argues that recessions are rarely the inevitable consequence of excess or financial imbalances. Instead, they are often triggered by unexpected external shocks that are difficult to predict. The conversation explores why expansions do not simply die of old age, why recessions fail to cleanse the economy, and what policymakers and investors should focus on instead when preparing for an uncertain future.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Tyler on LinkedIn and Read his Book.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why recessions are often caused by unexpected shocks00:54 - Tyler Goodspeed's research into four centuries of economic history06:05 - Why economic expansions do not die of old age13:48 - Debunking the boom and bust theory of recessions18:13 - Does monetary policy matter as much as we think21:57 - Financial crises, credit growth and what the data really shows27:11 - Why energy supply shocks have shaped economic history30:58 - Why the UK and US have experienced different recessions35:31 - Government intervention and whether it reduces recessions39:09 - Do recessions actually make economies stronger44:16 - Why the UK never returned to its pre 2008 growth trend47:51 - Financial repression, government debt and the lessons of 200851:32 - Randomness, resilience and preparing for economic shocks56:20 - Rare earths, energy security and the next potential recession triggerCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
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  SI410: The Next Evolution of Trend Following ft. Nick Baltas 25.07.2026 1h 10min

  Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Nick Baltas explore how artificial intelligence, thematic investing and narrative momentum are beginning to reshape systematic investing. Alongside a review of recent CTA performance, they discuss new research on expanding trend following universes, defensive portfolio construction and portable alpha before taking a deep dive into the growing role of AI and thematic risk models. The conversation examines whether future investment signals may come from more than price alone and how systematic investors can combine traditional trend following with new sources of information without losing the discipline that has defined the strategy for decades.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Nick on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - AI, memories and the changing pace of innovation06:32 - How investment firms are integrating artificial intelligence13:01 - CTA performance and the trend following environment20:34 - Expanding the market universe for trend followers28:17 - Building the perfect hedge with trend following34:25 - Portable alpha and leveraging trend strategies37:44 - Introducing thematic investing and missing factors44:59 - How narratives create momentum in financial markets50:43 - Measuring thematic strength versus price momentum58:41 - Can thematic investing be backtested?01:04:14 - Are narratives really different from traditional sectors?01:07:06 - Final thoughts on AI, research and the future of systematic investingCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
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  OI23: Why Capital Efficiency Is the Next Edge in Investing ft. Charlie McGarraugh 22.07.2026 46min

  Charlie McGarraugh joins Moritz Seibert to discuss how systematic investing is evolving beyond traditional trend following. Drawing on experience from Goldman Sachs, crypto and machine learning, Charlie explains why adaptive portfolios, capital efficiency and smarter position sizing may become the defining advantages for the next generation of macro investors. They explore the rise of managed futures ETFs, China's growing futures markets, the trade off between diversification and simplicity, and why portfolio construction often matters more than finding the next predictive signal. It is a thoughtful conversation about where systematic investing may be heading next.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Why position sizing may matter more than return prediction01:03 - Charlie McGarra's journey from Goldman Sachs to Altis Partners09:03 - The history of Altis Partners and its evolution beyond trend following11:19 - Building a multi factor macro strategy around trend16:02 - Why adaptive investing is becoming increasingly important21:49 - The growth of managed futures ETFs and reaching new investors25:27 - Designing ETFs for diversification and capital efficiency30:30 - Why Chinese commodity futures offer unique opportunities40:41 - New ideas around leverage and capital efficiency42:37 - Kelly sizing, drawdowns and maximizing long term returnsCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
• 
  SI409: Why Trend Following Is Changing Faster Than Ever ft. Yoav Git 18.07.2026 1h 8min

  Markets are evolving in ways that few investors fully appreciate. Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Yoav Git explore how changing market structure, the rise of retail options trading and new financial products are reshaping trend following. They discuss why short term strategies have become more challenging, whether single stock futures could open new opportunities, and what recent research reveals about narratives, thematic investing and diversification. Along the way they examine commodities, equity markets and the practical realities of systematic investing, offering a thoughtful perspective on how trend followers continue to adapt as markets become increasingly complex.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - England, the World Cup final and new futures market innovations06:30 - Bruno Mars, hedge fund blow up risk and AI investment concerns12:40 - July trend following performance and market positioning18:31 - Front month futures, commodity curves and trend following signals25:03 - CFM's Seven Degrees of Market Structure36:49 - Why single stock futures and options are changing equity markets39:56 - The decline of short term trend following explained47:50 - Thematic investing and where equity risk really comes from55:06 - Narrative momentum and how news drives market behaviour01:02:45 - Building a diversified equity trend strategy01:05:04 - Final thoughts on the future of systematic investingCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
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  GM105: The Billion-Barrel Shock Has Not Arrived Yet ft. Adam Rozencwajg 15.07.2026 1h 15min

  More than a billion barrels of expected oil supply have been removed from the market. Yet prices suggest the danger has passed. Adam Rozencwajg joins Cem Karsan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to explain why that conclusion may be dangerously premature. The missing barrels have not disappeared from the equation. Their impact is still moving through tankers, refineries and inventories, hidden by reporting delays and China’s strategic response. From the limits of petroleum reserves to falling stockpiles, gold’s correction and the energy required to power AI, this episode examines a market caught between what prices are saying and what the physical system may soon reveal.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why commodity super cycles are driven by capital investment, not geopolitics09:30 - The impact of Middle East supply disruptions on global oil markets15:38 - Oil inventories, strategic reserves and why the data may be misleading21:57 - China's energy strategy and its growing influence on global markets31:23 - Why energy markets have not reacted as many investors expected37:13 - China's long term energy transition and global demand implications43:59 - Why oil prices have fallen despite tightening fundamentals48:12 - The outlook for oil markets over the coming months58:25 - Gold, investor positioning and what could trigger the next rally01:02:59 - Strategic government investment and the future of critical commodities01:09:22 - Why energy remains the biggest opportunity in the AI boom01:11:53 - Final thoughts on where commodity markets go from hereCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
• 
  SI408: Has Trend Following Changed Forever? ft. Alan Dunne 11.07.2026 1h 3min

  Markets continue to evolve, and so do the strategies designed to navigate them. Alan Dunne joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to explore why changes in market structure may have permanently altered short term trend following, and what that means for systematic investors. They discuss a fascinating new research paper on market microstructure, the changing role of liquidity, the rise of high frequency trading and why faster no longer necessarily means better. Along the way they examine the Federal Reserve's evolving communication strategy, the outlook for commodities, and why regime change continues to create both risks and opportunities for trend followers.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Summer reading, Jeremy Grantham and lessons from early quantitative investing 05:22 - Shrinking retail products, smaller futures contracts and the rise of retail trading12:18 - First half performance review for CTAs and trend followers15:36 - Commodity markets, Middle East tensions and the AI driven demand story20:09 - Kevin Warsh, Fed communication and a new era for monetary policy30:34 - Why regime change strengthens the case for trend following38:34 - The research behind the decline of short term trend following46:44 - Tick size, liquidity and what changed in market microstructure49:43 - Alternative explanations for why fast trend has struggled55:35 - Execution, market participants and the future of systematic trading01:00:45 - Final thoughts on the next evolution of trend followingCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer