Spark Club Podcast

Episódios

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  China is Electrifying Everything - Tim Buckley - Ep75 05.09.2026 47min

  Spark Club Podcast - Ep75 - 3rd September 2026 Highlights – CEF's field trip to China CATL, XCMG and China Hongqiao Group  Tim Buckley and Matt Pollard's three highlights from their China trip in August: CATL: RD&D: CATL invested an annualised RMB22.7bn (A$2.3bn) in R&D in 1HCY2026, up 13% y-o-y, with 22,000 staff deployed in RD&D, including 700 professors, with >60,000 patent applications and 17 new patents being borne daily! Extensive use of data, robots & analysis means CATL targets an error rate of 1 part per billion! China Hongqiao Group is China's #2 integrated aluminium producer, and they toured the largest single-site aluminium smelter in the world, 4x the capacity of Tomago in Newcastle. This smelter has reduced its annual emissions by 32Mtpa since 2020, with a lot more reductions underway. XCMG: CEF joined Fortescue & XCMG at the largest commercial deployment of autonomous EV mining vehicles at China Huaneng Group's 35Mtpa open cut opencut coal mine in Inner Mongolia. The highlight was the confirmation that having successfully deployed 100 autonomous EV mining trucks in May 2025, by Sept'2026 this will double to 200 and then treble to 300 trucks by Nov'2026, 18 months ahead of the original 3 year rollout. Follow the money – one of the largest coal mining utilities in the world sees this technology as commercial, even as BHP and Rio Tinto continue with their climate walk back. Highlights – Asian Carbon markets progress Matt and Tim attended a full day session in Beijing with 30 people from the greater Asian region to discuss China's carbon market expansion, and the progress on carbon market developments from India to Thailand, Korea and Philippines. A key point was made by China's Assistant Director General of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment that climate markets are an integral part of China's sustainable economic development. The focus is on building momentum towards greater Asian regional cooperation in carbon market development, particularly in regional trade so as to extend and leverage the EU ETS and CBAM. It was great to hear Minister Bowen last month talk about his push for a path to an Australian CBAM, particularly as it was followed by his Australian meeting late August 2026 with China's Minister of Ecology and Environment, Huang Runqiu, for the 10th Australia-China Ministerial Dialogue on Climate Change. Lowlights – The WA by-election last week Not only did ONP win a strong 57% two-party share of the total vote and take the seat of Secret Harbour, but the WA ALP fielded Woodside's ex lobbyist as their candidate, and Woodside was one of the largest donors to her election campaign. Yet more evidence of the state capture of the WA government by the fossil gas industry. Main Story – My keynote presentation this week to the RE Construction Summit This week Tim is presenting in Sydney at the Renewable Energy Construction Summit, see presentation is available via CEF's website. Main themes are: #1 We are making strong progress on the journey to 82% RE and beyond, even if we are tracking 1-2 years behind Minister Chris Bowen's ambitious 2030 target. The 12 month moving average for RE share hit a record high of 46.9% in August 2026. Rooftop solar installs are on track for an all time record high of 4GW in CY2026, up a third on the last 5 years' average.  This is supported by the 2,000 home battery installs per day being delivered thanks to Minister Bowen's massively successful program. And rooftop C&I is finally set to surge with Bowen's latest incentive program, all leveraging the existing grid and thereby lowering average retail electricity prices for all. And while AEMO's new ESOO flags a record 9.1GW of net new generation and storage capacity (utility and CER) was added in FYU2026, almost 3x that of the last five years, the reality is we need to see progress rise another 50% and then sustain that for the next decade.  The CER's August 2026 report highlights that another cumulative 7.5GW of utility scale renewables capacity has reached FID but yet to be commissioned, with a record 32.2GW in the CER's probable category. Progress is being made, but we must see this accelerate, and for this to happen, we must see project proposals that have won CIS leverage this and get to FID and into construction. The only way we get coal plant closures is by building replacement renewable generation capacity beyond what is needed to cover the ongoing growth in electrification, including EVs and data centres.   What's coming up?  Later this week Tim is off to Adelaide for a German-Australia green iron and steel roundtable, followed by attending the Asia Hydrogen Summit, where Tim is moderating a panel on path to commercialisation and deployments Next week TIm is off to Canberra with Prof. Liz Thurbon and Oliver Yates to meet with the Chinese Embassy to suggest ways for greater bilateral China-Australia collaboration, and meeting with Treasury again re the FTC reform Then Tim will be going to the Gold Coast to see a potential battery assembly factory with eLumina, then talking at a community event on China's energy transition hosted by Mara Bun with Annastacia Palaszczuk, Chair of the Advanced Materials & Battery Council, and like me, a massive fan of seeing first hand China's energy system transformation and the opportunities for greater Australia-China collaboration. The following week Tim will join a Canberra Parliament delegation (including Mick Liubinskas' VC event on the 16th), then he's speaking at an Ethinvest event in Melbourne on the evening of the 16th, then a Sydney Freight Electrification event on the 17th then talking at the Everything Electric Sydney event on 18th Sept. End
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  Governments step up for Tomago with $2.5B - Tim Buckley Ep74 20.08.2026 55min

  Spark Club Podcast 14 August 2026 Highlights – The new SRES support for the missing middle C&I rooftop solar Businesses, farmers to save on solar installations under renewable energy scheme expansion Minister for Climate Change and Energy Chris Bowen today addresses the National Press Club of Australia to announce that the Australian Anthony Albanese government is expanding the solar discount to include installations up to 1MW in size. This will slash the installation costs for commercial & industrial (C&I) + agricultural buildings by ~20%. Estimates vary, but the technical rooftop potential for solar on C&I and agricultural rooftops could exceed 80GW. The Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme (SRES) limit will be lifted from 100kW to 1,000kW. Minister Bowen is also requesting the Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC) to consider a rule change to require the network providers to approve C&I solar much more expeditiously and efficiently than they have been doing. Another strong step forward for Australia's energy system transformation to embrace electrification, decarbonisation and energy independence. The Smart Energy Council's Robert Potter earlier this month released a major report on the unrealised potential of the commercial and industrial solar market, and how it could be fulfilled, says the expanded SRES will be "a permanent bill slasher" for farms, factories and warehouses - refer below. Well done SEC   Highlights – Oriign Energy FY2026 results highlight electricity price deflation ahead Simply amazing to see electricity and gas price deflation in the middle of the latest fossil fuel war in the Middle East. Surging global LNG and oil prices, and yet Australia's wholesale electricity prices are coming down in 2026! Congrats Climate & Energy Minister Chris Bowen - deflation in a world of hyper fossil fuel price inflation. Such a contrast to 2022 when Australian energy prices - oil, gas and electricity - went through the roof. The Default Market Offer (DMO) is down from 1 July 2026. Such a contrast to energy bills under the previous mob when Putin invaded Ukraine and we all suffered hyper fossil fuel price inflation, and the resulting cost of living crisis and higher mortgage costs! More #Renewable Energy generation firmed by a massive buildout of batteries- utility scale BESS and behind the meter batteries - is putting some downward pressure on energy prices. The record 2,000 home battery installs per day is helping drive permanently lower electricity prices, and preventing electricity prices going up as per what happened in 2022. 500k BTM battery installs now achieved. Time to embrace electrification of our transport sector, EVs, freight and mining. Time for the $11bn annual imported diesel fuel subsidy to be pivoted into a tailwind for decarbonisation. Lets remove the obstacle to BHP and Rio Tinto embracing electrification and decarbonisation in the Pilbara. Australia is the largest importer of diesel in the world - and our mining sector is the biggest user of imported diesel. We have the solutions, time to cut our $50bn annual imported diesel and oil bill, permanently!   Highlights – GANE and carbon / nature market pricing Great to spend some time at the Growing Australia's Nature Economy (GANE) Yass gathering GANE's mission is to be a positive and active advocate for market-based opportunities that benefit nature, the economy and people. Strengthening Australia's nature-based economy by advocating for environmental markets that deliver real outcomes. A very informative deep dive into the intersection of the need for climate markets, the price on carbon pollution and the integrity of the system to be enhanced to concurrently protect our natural environment while incentivising the repair of our land sector - with the massive opportunities to better serve our nature, farming and indigenous mobs. Climate & Energy Minister Chris Bowen joined us for a lengthy discussion on the Safeguard Mechanism as well as the opportunities for stronger systems for valuing and protecting biodiversity, endangered species, nature and enhancing First Nations self-determination. Australia's land, water and wildlife are under immense strain. Forests are being cleared faster than they can regrow, soils are eroding, and native species are vanishing. At the same time, our climate is changing, with hotter, drier seasons hitting farmers, First Nations communities and regional towns the hardest. Repairing nature at this scale will require investments in the hundreds of billions of dollars, far beyond what governments or charities can afford alone. ACCUs bring in a long term revenue stream to support communities: Savanna burning by our First Nations provides self-determination for our mobs, on-country employment for rangers, with a career path and connection to country that is empowering their communities. for farmers to rebuild farm resilience by restoring soil carbon and water retention, boosting farm productivity whilst providing a second income stream. for conservation groups from reforestation to protect endangered species.   Lowlights Plutocracy Rising Sunrise Energy Metals The rise and rise of the war-profiteering US led plutocracy Near Dubbo, six hours west of Sydney, former Rio Tinto executive Sam Riggall and his team at Sunrise Energy Metals have grabbed control of one of the world's largest and highest quality scandium deposits, in a rich mineral ring around a nickel and cobalt resource. But the global scandium market was tiny and the team could not make the economics work. Now in cahoots with Trump and his administration, plus a couple of billionaires Robert Friedland, Chinese real estate, agriculture and property billionaire Jiang Zhaobai and some other insiders in the US, plus Sam Riggall add a few more billion $$$$$$ to their personal wealth by securing a US Department of Defence $US400m loan. In a related announcement ExxonMobil last week announced record high 2QCY2026 earnings of US$14.5 billion, double that reported last year thanks to Trump's ongoing open-ended war against Iran. The war profits continue to roll-in to the business 'elites' as the rest of the world pays the massive open-ended cost. https://lnkd.in/gaHEbn4g    Main Story – Highlights – The $2.5bn NSW and Fed funding for Tomago The NSW & federal governments have agreed to invest $2.5bn over 10 years to secure the future of Australia's largest aluminium smelter, Tomago Aluminium. Smelter owner Rio Tinto has long threatened closure amid with the end of its long term subsidised coal-fired power supply contract. Now Rio Tinto and partners have agreed to invest another $1.1bn in modernisation & decarbonisation on top of the $2.5bn state and Federal investment package to secure 3GW of new Renewable Energy. Rio Tinto has long threatened Tomago closure when the subsidised coal power contract expired end 2028. The world is embracing decarbonisation and Tomago is >95% export focussed, so Rio has long made it clear green aluminium exports was the only international path forward. Renewable Energy firmed by BESS + DRM (demand response management, flexing down production when the grid is stressed and power prices are too high) supported by gas peakers is the internationally cost competitive solution. Gas will play an important, but small & declining role in grid resilience. Gas is
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  The Grid Network Story - Ep73 - Stephanie Bashir 17.08.2026 1h 8min

  Announcing the Spark Club podcast series on the grid networks.   High time for this important conversation about our Poles and Wires in Australia. And nobody better to discuss this topic than Stephanie Bashir.   In this first episode in the series, the saga begins with laying out the landscape and asking the obvious question. In a regulated monopoly, where is the regulator?    Thank you Stephanie Bashir for shining a light on another 'missing middle', or 'missing regulator' in the energy transition, Poles and Wires.    The grid is a sleepy hollow that used to cost electricity consumers just 25% of the kWh stack in Australia. Its around 55% of the stack today. Which is why this is such an important conversation.    We welcome input from our Spark Club community on topics we should be convering in this series on Poles & Wires. Send us an email.    Looking forward to our next conversation.     
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  Green Steel - Now's the time for Australia - Tim Buckley Ep72 30.07.2026 43min

  Spark Club Podcast Ep72 24th July 2026 Highlights – 'Message to the haters' AFR Headline Beyond Tim's inspirational trip to China last month to be reminded about 'China Speed, China Scale' + 'China Going Global', his favourite thing this year was seeing the AFFR headline: "'Message to the haters': Chalmers gets cover to cut diesel tax rebate" Following a campaign in the lead-up to Labor's 50th national conference by the highly influential Labor Environment Action Network (LEAN), convenor Louise Crawford moved an amendment that paved the way for future action: "Labor will ensure that all policies, including taxation, work together to provide appropriate incentives and remove disincentives for orderly decarbonisation," the amendment, passed unopposed by delegates.  Recently elected ALP MP for Bennelong, Jerome Laxale said the amendment sent "a message to the haters that Labor can and will double down on decarbonisation. Our new platform should scream that Labor is serious about climate action and no one who reads it should be surprised when we use our time in government to deliver it." And the AFR acknowledged a key plank of Climate Capital Forum's strategy: "Farmers and tourism operators would not be affected by the proposal." A long way to go yet, but such a big team effort, with LEAN working with the ACTU, Fortescue, CANA, ACOSS and IGCC plus a range of additional groups leaning in to build collective social, union, cleantech and eNGO power – the power of a coalition. Highlights – China CleanTech exports record high in June China's cleantech exports are truly booming. EMBER reports June 2026 was a record high US$26.7bn   Lowlights - China solar capacity installs in 1HCY2026 down 1HCY2026 capacity adds data is pretty bleak relative to the massive outperformance by China in previous years. They have added 38GW of thermal in 6 months, up vs 26GW add pcp. They have added 72GW of solar in 6 months, down vs 212GW add pcp. -2/3 They have added 39GW of wind in 6 months, down vs 51GW add pcp. -22% BESS installs are booming – but clearly they are holding firepower on the domestic economic stimulus to have firepower vs Trump, but after GDP growth of +4.3% yoy in 2QCY2026, they are likely to do something stimulus wise near term, I would think Main Story – Our new CEF Report: Arc of Ambition: Decarbonising and Safeguarding Australia's Steel Industry An effective Green Energy Statecraft policy architecture starting domestically can create government initiatives and channels of strategic public capital deployment that de-risk key aspects of project development through coordinated planning; enabling infrastructure; and efficient allocation and alleviation of project development risks, addressing structural challenges to the economic viability of decarbonised value-add. Link to the full report here:  https://climateenergyfinance.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/CEF_Arc-of-Ambition_-Decarbonising-and-Safeguarding-Australian-Steel_FINAL.pdf What's coming up? Boao Forum Perth This week Tim had the privilege of joining Oliver Yates of @Green Energy Statecraft, Rachel Howard @MPP & Tom Parker @ACBC Beathan @TSP, Tom Quinn @Springmout and others to attend a full day conference – the Boao Forum in Perth The Boao Forum for Asia (BFA), hosted by Fortescue, brings together senior leaders from government, industry and academia from across Australia & China, and a smattering of representatives from ASEAN and Gabon.The Perth Forum explored the theme The Next Phase of Green Industry Cooperation. The Forum examines how governments and industry can strengthen regional cooperation, improve energy security and accelerate the deployment pathways for large scale green technologies and industries. CEF is honoured to be speaking in Session 4: Future green energy enabled industries and market creation It is a who's who from China – both cleantech, government, steel, construction and finance – so a lot broader than just the narrow definition of the steel supply chain of old – it is all about the massive infrastructure buildout needs of the bilateral integrated green iron and steel profile from mining, railways, grid, renewable generation and bess firming to green iron and then green steel, with the massive associated cooperation required at the political arena, plus the financing needs – interesting to see ANZ and Macquarie Group speaking alongside CDB, Bank of China, China Construction Bank and China EXIM Bank. Given the seniority and number of Chinese executives attending – It is embarrassing the Australian delegation that pales by comparison. At least the WA Premier and Energy Ministers attended in part. End.
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  Australian Delegation Witnesses China Speed, China Scale - Tim Buckley - Ep71 01.07.2026 58min

  Tim Buckley joined the Australian Trade and Investment Commission (Austrade) and Renewable Energy Council Asia-Pacific (RECAP) delegation to China. Before joining the delegation, Tim travelled across China by train — a very fast trip with a friend from Hong Kong, via Chongqing. Nothing beats travelling 12 hours at 300kph across the length of this amazing country to orient himself and see some of the landscape. Chongqing is the largest city in China (and the world), with a population of some 34 million people. Simply incredible and beautiful. Walking the streets of Beijing, Tim played spot-the-ICE-vehicle — green EV number plates abound! Tim joined the delegation for the Fourth China International Supply Chain Expo (CISCE) in Beijing. Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng spoke at the opening ceremony, addressing the importance for China of global supply chain stability and security for mutual benefit and win-win cooperation, even as other nations create geopolitical challenges. Australia was featured as the country guest of honour. Great to have John Grimes (Renewable Energy Council Asia-Pacific, RECAP) and Dominic Trindade (Australia Consul-General, Australian Trade and Investment Commission, Austrade) co-hosting, with Don Farrell, Trade Minister. Tim and the delegation were there to see "China Speed, China Scale" first hand — and even sat in an autonomous flying EV taxi! Brilliant to meet with State Grid Corporation of China's CEPRI (China Electric Power Research Institute) RERC team to discuss energy system transformation trends in China, and how they match and differ from Australia. Brilliant to hear China plans to expand variable renewable energy (VRE) capacity from 1.84TW as of December 2025 to ~3.0TW installed capacity by 2030. CEPRI estimates China's solar potential at 45.6TW, while onshore wind is estimated at a more modest 3.4TW (plus 0.5TW of lower-speed wind), offshore wind at 0.4TW in deep sea (out to 50km offshore), and another 0.36TW of near-shore wind (at 100 metre height). By 2030, China's 3.0TW VRE capacity will be just 6% of this 50TW maximum. CEPRI acknowledges this theoretical maximum is being progressively raised — the higher the tower, the faster the average wind speed, and generation expands somewhat exponentially. By end of 2025, China had 46 HVDC grid transmission lines operational — that's 46 of the world's roughly 50 largest lines. Total world leadership, clearly evident, and very impressive. The Austrade RECAP delegation visited XCMG Group's factory in Xuzhou, China. XCMG is the number one OEM in mining equipment in China (with a 2025 share of 33% in domestic mining excavators) and third globally. XCMG's 2025 revenue reached Rmb90bn, up 897% since 2019, with 2025 net profit of Rmb4.9bn. XCMG's R&D investment in 2025 was Rmb10.2bn (A$2bn), and the company holds 12,715 patents, including 4,798 domestic and 366 international invention patents. XCMG's 15th Five-Year Plan for its mining equipment strategy targets trebling mining machinery sales to US$6bn a year by 2030, lifting international sales share to 60% (from 40% in 2025), with new energy vehicles rising to a 50% share. China going global: XCMG targets being number one globally in new energy mining equipment as soon as 2030. Tim has no doubt they will achieve this. XCMG started as a construction equipment OEM, expanding to create a separate mining sector vertical with a focus on new energy vehicles and autonomous operation. Adjacent to the mining OEM facility is the XCMG and BYD battery joint venture factory, which targets 100GWh a year capacity. Phase 1 (30GWh) is already in operation, built in just 12 months and commissioned in December 2023; phase 2 (70GWh) is in preparation. This factory produces the Blade battery pack, with a long life of 7,000 cycles. XCMG manufactures the biggest truck in the world, with a 363-tonne payload at a cost of US$15m per unit. XCMG will deliver its first 240-tonne payload EV to Fortescue in early 2027, with the full US$1bn order due for commercial delivery commencing 2028. Tim believes it is time for Treasurer Jim Chalmers and Finance Minister Katy Gallagher to reform the $4.5bn annual Australian mining sector imported diesel fuel subsidy to BHP, Rio Tinto and others, turning this headwind to energy security into a tailwind for decarbonisation. In his view, PM Anthony Albanese and Industry Minister Tim Ayres should ignore MCA lobbyist threats — Australia's Future Made in Australia agenda needs to be powered by domestic clean energy, not expensive, high-emissions imported diesel. Brilliant to see XCMG Australia has doubled to 70 staff across two offices, with a third in Queensland planned. XCMG has already deployed 500 autonomous trucks globally, mostly hybrid or EV. June 2025 saw XCMG deploy 100 autonomous EV trucks at an Inner Mongolia open-cut coal mine, with a 90-tonne payload and a six-minute recharge time. (https://lnkd.in/gRKbaAJY) XCMG has a MoU for cooperation with Rio Tinto, and is already delivering mining EV equipment to Rio Tinto's partner in Simandou, Guinea. XCMG is working closely with Vale and has a new Brazilian factory with 1,600 workers. Tim shares a few details on the delegation's visit to the BYD truck factory and EV zero to 60 in less than two seconds in a Xiaomi. China delivers on "China Speed, China Scale" for this Australian delegation. Enjoy the podcast. 
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  Diesel Fuel Rebate Underpins BHP's Inaction - Tim Buckley - Ep70 29.05.2026 50min

  Grant McDowell & Tim Buckley– Spark Club Podcast 27 May 2026 Highlights – ACCELERATING RENEWABLES DRIVES NEM ELECTRICITY PRICE DEFLATION Amazing to see electricity price DEFLATION being delivered in Australia in the middle of the latest fossil fuel war, with its resulting hyperinflation of global fossil fuel prices. The Australian Energy Regulator has released its final Default Market Offer (DMO) starting 1 July 2026. Residential flat rate standing offer prices will fall by between 3-5% in NSW and by 7.2% in South East Queensland compared to last year, while South Australian households will have a modest increase of 1.4%. Small businesses will see reductions across all three regions, with prices decreasing by 7-12% in South Australia, 10-14% in South East Queensland, and 9.0-21% in NSW. Earlier this week the Essential Services Commission delivered a further reduction in the Victorian Default Offer; FY2026–27 will be on average 5% lower than last year for households. For small businesses the price is down on average 6%. A major contributing factor is the record high investments into clean energy by Australia's public – with over 400k home battery installs totalling >11GWh achieved in just 11 months, supporting the 3GW pa of rooftop solar installs. Lowlights – China installed just 75GW of RE in 4MCY2026, -41%$ yoy Solar installs of 51GW in 4M 2026 -51% yoy. Still more than the RoW combined, but disappointingly down in the middle of year. China added a depressing 28GW of fossil powered capacity YTD 2026, +26% yoy. Why? China is consolidating after knocking the lights out last year. But also GDP growth is still on track at +5% yoy, and Industrial value-add +5.6% yoy. Keeping their govt. firepower in-case Trump attacks China again, and this time has an impact, unlike the last few times! In the electricity sector, total electricity generation was +5.4% yoy YTD 2026, unfortunately with nuclear down yoy, coal power was +3.8% yoy. Not what we want to see continue over the rest of 2026. Main Story – The ABC / Guardian Australia Epic reveal  A major exposé on ABC Four Corners on Monday, in collaboration with the Guardian, revealed irrefutable evidence of BHP reversing its commitments to meaningfully cut emissions in a credible timeframe. The egregious walkback, as the climate crisis escalates, was laid out in hundreds of pages of leaked internal company records.  What BHP does matters. It is the world's largest mining company by market capitalisation, generating revenues of US$51bn in the last financial year with underlying earnings of US$26bn and a US$18bn pre-tax profit to its shareholders. Andrew Mackenzie, BHP's CEO until 2019, said publicly that decarbonisation was a strategic imperative, with failure to act posing an existential risk. Its Pilbara decarbonisation plans were urgent and comprehensive, and involved rapid electrification of locomotives and haulage trucks, and a massive buildout of solar to reduce diesel and gas dependence. It had plans to deploy US$3bn in decarbonisation investment by 2030 to underpin its climate targets and secure its licence to operate. Then it all went to the proverbial.  In 2024, CEO Mike Henry introduced BHP's Climate Transition Action Plan (CTAP, aka CRAP), which sounds great except for it being entirely hollow. BHP massively delayed its entire decarbonisation trajectory until after 2030 – trashing its stated intention to address climate risk and abrogating its corporate responsibility to act in this critical decade. Astonishingly, the "plan" forecasts BHP's global emissions will rise from FY2025-FY2030. Up is not down. There is currently categorically zero chance of BHP's plans meeting its net zero by 2050 commitment. In the knowledge that this story was coming, BHP vigorously cranked up the spin machine. A curiously timed pamphlet, released last week by economics consultancy Mandala, which has close ties to the PMO, broke down top ASX listed industrial corporates' global scope 1 and 2 emissions profiles in FY2025 vs FY2020, conveniently pitching BHP as a corporate leader. BHP then mounted an ad campaign trumpeting the trumped-up claims. To call Mandala's brochure misleading is generous. BHP primarily relies on the electrification of BHP's huge Chilean copper mining operations and the closure of the high emissions NickelWest business to boost BHP's decarbonisation credentials and obscures BHP's dereliction of its responsibilities in the Pilbara.  Production-based emissions intensity would tell a different story on BHP's progress, and that of other giants like Rio featured by Mandala – despite the coordinated reporting in The Australian engineered to promulgate the Mandala talking points while bashing genuine decarbonisation leader Fortescue. Why the heel dragging by BHP? Follow the money – the billions paid to the big miners each year by the federal government to maintain their imported diesel addiction.  In Australia, BHP extracts from the taxpayer a $620m annual imported diesel refund covering the staggering 1.2 billion litres of this climate-destroying fuel it uses each year in its mining operations. Diesel powers >60% of BHP's total energy needs. This dependency undermines our national energy independence, which requires an accelerated transition to homegrown renewables, and continues to put Australia's energy security at risk. It persists in an increasingly fraught global geopolitical landscape riven by energy wars – see PM Anthony Albanese begging our trade partners for supply as the global oil supply shock rolls on. And BHP is the #1 beneficiary of this insane structural barrier to mining industry decarbonisation and the massive opportunities for onshoring and reskilling of our workforce.  Meanwhile Fortescue is investing US$6-7bn this decade in electrification, decarbonisation and energy security in the Pilbara – a world leading effort to position Australian iron ore mining at the forefront of emissions reduction. It is partnering with the best cleantech firms in the world, who happen to mostly be domiciled in China – Australia's #1 trade partner and biggest iron ore customer. In so doing it is building important geopolitical bridges for Australia even as world trade is undermined by the US.  Despite being a leading beneficiary of the diesel subsidy, Fortescue is a vocal advocate of urgent reform, as demonstrated by CEO Dino Otranto on Four Corners. Fortescue supports CEF's position that the subsidy should be capped at $50m per firm pa, with recipients required to invest any refund above that threshold in decarbonisation, or forgo that amount. This reform would convert a massive headwind to energy transition in mining to a Transition Tax Incentive, instantly accelerating decarbonisation and enabling Australia to grasp the immense green industrial opportunities of the emerging net zero global economy. A tightening of the Safeguard Mechanism is also key to incentivising decarbonisation, with a progressive ratcheting up of minimum Australian Carbon Credit Unit prices, to make polluters like BHP meaningfully cut emissions or pay. The facts are that BHP, like Rio Tinto, Hancock Prospecting and Fortescue for the past 6 years have tapped into literal rivers of gold from their iron ore exports, booking return on capital ranging from 30% pa up to 70% pa. BHP's FY2025 results for WA iron ore cite an "5 year average return of ~65%", which any company would kill for. They have the capital firepower to massively invest, accelerate electrification and decarbonisation of the Pilbara now as Fortescue is doing, and lead the world. Yet they sit on their hands. The region has a pathetic renewable energy penetration of just 2% versus 44% for Australia's national grid. We need an end to the Big Australian's gutless reversals on climate, cheap talk and abysmal underinvestment in Australian decarbonisation. Equally, we need an urgent show of political courage from the government to decouple BHP and its counterparts from the firehose of diesel cash they have clamped themselves to at the expense of the people and the planet. What's coming up?  27/28 May 2026 CEF Tim will be attending the Hunter New Energy Symposium in Newcastle to talk about the progress in the Hunter Valley on practical advances in the energy transition as it is occurring there. 18-27th June Tim is in China with Austrade and SEC seeing my favourite companies e.g. XCMG, Sigenergy, China State Grid, Windrose & Xiami.
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  Silicon to Solar, Australia's Risk, Return, Reward - Oliver Hartley - Ep69 19.05.2026 35min

  The Silicon to Solar study allowed Oliver Hartley and his colleagues assess the opportunity for Australia to play a role in the global solar PV value chain. In this Spark Club podcast Oliver shares how Australia can indeed play a meaningful role in the global solar value chain. All the right elements are there for the taking. A deep global market, big project experience and expertise, willing partners, and a key pillar in our low-cost clean energy intensive industries of the future. A fascinating conversation. Enjoy the podcast.  Link to: ARENA AusSi Study-Knowledge Sharing Report
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  Pre-budget LNG and diesel rebate tax reform & The Green Metal Statecraft report 10.05.2026 42min

  Highlights – The SEC Sydney conference Brilliant to see a full house standing room only for Minister Bowen's talk. Great to have >8000 attendees to the wider trade hall and >100 speakers over two days in up to 8 theatres concurrently. So many people pulling in the right direction, reinvigorating. Highlights – Fuel Tax Credit reform Whilst the Albanese government has ruled out FTC reform in next TUES budget, it is still a campaign CEF and our allies are working extensively on, maybe for MYEFO Dec'2026. Brilliant to see Twiggy, Chair of FMG, give a SEC keynote speech, and more than half of it was on the need for FTC reform starting in the mining sector. FMG is busy funding an ad campaign to elevate the topic and inform voters. Twiggy's slide deck was mostly leveraging my CEF colleague Matt Pollard's number crunching and work. Highlights – The Cheaper Home Batteries Program and Accelerating capital deployments Almost every presenter at the SEC conference talked about the brilliant milestone of >10GWh combined across 380,000 new home battery installs in just 10 months. April 2026 was a record high, showing how much capital and skills can be deployed at speed and scale when the policy / economics are aligned. Treasurer Chalmers has allocated $7.2bn for the home battery scheme, and to-date $3.3bn has been deployed, including a $1bn in the month of April. Nothing like a single program in a single month deploying $1bn to kick up the momentum. CEF & Greenhouse are tracking budget and capital deployments in cleantech, decarbonisation, electrification and green metal value-add exports and since the start of 2023, an additional $90bn has been put on the table - $82bn federally and $8bn collectively from the states. This $8bn was bumped up nicely last week with the WA Government putting a $1.4bn Clean Energy Fund into the WA State Budget. We have tracked in CY2025 deployments of some $15bn, and in the first 4 months of 2026, we have tracked another $6bn (an $18bn run-rate). CCF and ARIA had been running campaigns to push the governments to accelerate the speed and scale of capital deployments, and we are seeing progress. From 1 July 2026 the new $5bn Net Zero Fund opens its doors, so there is capacity building. But good to see momentum improving. Highlights – More RE share => lower energy prices AEMO QED report highlighted RE share in 1QCY2026 was 46%, after the record high 50% share seen in 4QCY2025. So we are making progress. We also saw reports the installed utility scale BESS capacity will treble in the next 1-2 years, making grid reliability better, and now batteries are the #1 price setting technology in the NEM, diluting the power of gas peakers in setting high prices at times of high demand. BESS => deflation And also worth thinking about the contrast of 2026 vs 2022: in 2026, petrol prices are up 50% vs the start of this year, but domestic gas prices are down 20% vs the start of this year, and electricity prices are down 12% as well. Last time we had a fossil fuel industry war back in 2022 when Putin invaded Ukraine, petrol prices doubled, gas prices doubled and electricity prices trebled. Chalk and Cheese. The gas cartel is in check in 2026, and RE shares are much higher, giving proof to the fossil fuel vested interests lie that RE => higher energy prices. The opposite, we now understand fossil fuel prices are hyper inflationary. And energy independence is a new key theme to add in support of electrification and decarbonisation. We will win this fight, we just need to go twice as fast. Lowlights The Albanese government has ruled out a 25% LNG export levy, very disappointing. The government has made "now is not the time" their mantra to show a lack of political will, using the excuse their #1 priority is to secure oil imports for Australia and they don't have the capacity to do two things at once. Very poor form, but we can never under-estimate the power of the incumbent fossil fuel industry, their lobbyists and their corrupting donations. We did secure an East Coast Gas reservation of 20% of production from 1 July 2027. Good and bad, it helps reduce energy cost inflation for sure, but it also means the hurdle for electrification and decarbonisation is harder, given methane is cheaper. Main Story – Our Clean Energy Finance Report: Green Metal Statecraft: Policy, Investment and Technology Trends in the Green Iron Evolution https://climateenergyfinance.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/CEF_Green-Metal-Statecraft_-Policy-Investment-and-Technology-Trends-in-the-Green-Iron-Evolution.pdf The decarbonisation and electrification of the global iron and steel industry is undergoing a structural recalibration, shifting from a period of speculative optimism on the now deflated hype regarding the rapid deployment of GH2, and into a slower decarbonisation trajectory. This report provides qualitative update of the investment, technology and enabling policy trends that will underpin the transformation of the iron and steel value chain. In aggregate the global sector is advancing unevenly, haltingly, sporadically and at a pace that remains deeply misaligned with the speed and breadth of decarbonisation of the sector – which contributes 7-9% of global emissions – demanded by the climate science. For every step forward on an individual project or market-level, the broader investment pipeline showcases an equivalent case study of project delay, cancellation, and restructure in the face of unresolved structural headwinds. Despite tens of billions in state aid, a strengthening carbon pricing mechanism, and supply-side and demand-side market forming mechanisms in the EU, the European investment pipeline has undergone a significant contraction in recent years. The investment trends, or lack thereof, of proposals progressing towards FID in Europe are indicative of structural headwinds. European electricity prices, even prior to the last two energy crises, remain 2-3x that of the US and domestic methane gas costs are 5x that of the US, and a similar order of magnitude higher than the rapidly emerging competing iron reduction region of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). There remains a clear bankability gap for near-zero carbon routes for iron and steel production. Across both the EU and China, deep decarbonisation means a structural shift away from coal-based production pathways in blast furnaces (BF) and basic oxygen furnaces (BOF). High upfront capital cost intensities, exposure to higher operating costs in electricity and renewable hydrogen – notwithstanding strong public capital support, decarbonising mature lower-emission pathways in hydrogen-based direct reduced iron (DRI) and EAF smelting face major bankability gaps. Despite the US war on Iran, the MENA region is emerging as a strategically important DRI production corridor, with significant methane-based DRI capacity operational, and the largest development pipeline of new gas-based capacity. MENA's competitive advantages in lower-emissions iron and steel production extend further into near-zero emissions manufacturing with some of the world's best renewable energy resources, low costs of capital and less stringent regulations and approvals processes than the EU. MENA's geographic proximity to Europe, existing DRI infrastructure, and access to competitive renewable energy position the region as the most credible near-term supplier of lower-emission primary iron to Europe's growing need for decarbonised iron and steel. At the current pace of decarbonisation, demand for DRI is expected to grow by 50% over the coming decade to reach 224Mtpa by 2035. The day we released our report, the US saw a FOAK 1.9Mtpa hot DRI plant reach FID at US Steel, co-located with 4 EAFs. This US$1.9bn investment is despite Trump's anti-decarbonisation agenda, the economics simply work. A big step forward, even in the US Globally, we have a long way to go. It is a race, and Australia needs to get into the race. Australia is half the worlds iron ore exports, whilst China is half the world's steel production. So there is a massive opportunity for the two biggest countries globally in the steel supply chain to work constructively together. But if we don't want to work with China, they will take their capital and capacities elsewhere. What's coming up? 12 May 2026 we have the Federal 2026 budget 27/28 May 2026 CEF will be attending the Hunter New Energy Symposium in Newcastle to talk about the progress in the Hunter Valley on practical advances in the energy transition as it is occurring there.
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  Australia's energy crisis silver linings - Tim Buckley - Ep67 12.04.2026 47min

  Highlights – The Business Leaders Forum at Boao, China Tim attended the Boao Forum in Hainan Island, China, joining an Australian delegation that included Oliver Yates, Frank Jotzo, Justin Punch, Jenny Selway, Geoff Brooks, Andrew Forrest and six members of the FMG green team, and Australian Ambassador to China Scott Dewar. China's stated position remains one of full commitment to electrification and decarbonisation. Highlights – PRRT Reform The ACTU continues to call for a flat 25% tax on Australian LNG to replace the The Petroleum Resource Rent Tax, with the objective of capturing windfall profits and generating tax revenues of up to $10bn to fund energy poverty relief across Australia. The Albanese government is reported to be considering options to impose a new levy on gas multinationals, as well as further changes to the Petroleum Resources Rent Tax (PRRT). CEF's Matt Pollard has published a detailed analysis (featured in Pearls & Wisdom) examining how the Queensland State Government's 2022 move to a progressive tiered royalty system saw the state receive 40 cents in the dollar for coal export sales above $300/t, with five lower tiers starting at 7% when coal prices are depressed. This generated $18bn in FY2023, compared to NSW receiving $4.5bn under its existing framework. The coal industry recorded $50bn in gross profit in a single year during a period of elevated energy prices affecting consumers. Highlights – Accelerating Capital Deployments Treasurer Chalmers' Single Front Door pilot is now operational. The Treasurer noted: "The supply chain disruptions we are seeing as a consequence of the conflict in the Middle East demonstrate just how important it is to build up our sovereign capability in these essential areas." Four project proposals are under consideration: HAMR — converting biomass into low-carbon liquid fuels, leveraging the Federal Government's $1.1bn low-carbon liquid fuels funding via the CEFC Ardea Resources' Kalgoorlie Nickel & Cobalt Project (WA) — one of Australia's largest nickel and cobalt resources New Energy Transport's Wilton Project (south-west of Sydney) — a large-scale zero-emission heavy road freight depot Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners' Murchison Green Hydrogen Project (mid-west WA) — a green hydrogen plant proposing large-scale green ammonia production using wind, solar, and desalination. This proposal received an $814m Hydrogen Headstart grant from ARENA in March 2025. The project's path to FID appears contingent on securing a long-term offtake agreement and an Asian CBAM mechanism. Government capital deployments total $4.5bn year-to-date as of April 2026, representing an annualised run-rate of $16bn, up from CY2025's $15bn — and excluding a potential Tomago deployment of up to $10bn. Lowlights Canavan and Co's coal-to-oil proposal is a thought bubble. (stronger language in the podcast) Main Story – CEF Op-Ed in The Energy: Lessons for Australia from the Global Energy Crisis As global oil markets face significant uncertainty and price volatility, China has spent two decades building energy independence as a strategic hedge against exactly the kind of energy disruption now affecting global markets. At the recent Boao Forum in Hainan, energy security framed every panel across the week. China's position was clearly stated: it will maintain its electrification and decarbonisation targets and engage with any nation that wishes to participate. This stands in contrast to Washington's current posture. Building a new oil refinery would take approximately a decade, and no private investors are currently proposing to do so in Australia. Australia's two remaining refineries are sub-scale, ageing, and have received ongoing government subsidies. Coal-to-liquid technology has not attracted significant investment in comparable economies. Australia does not need to replicate China's political model to draw lessons from its long-term energy planning approach. A 15-year transition horizon for the trucking sector — shifting away from imported diesel — is achievable if investment begins now. Rooftop solar can be installed within hours. An EV purchased today eliminates imported fuel dependency for approximately 20 years, directly contributing to domestic energy security. One observable consequence of the current geopolitical environment is that electrification timelines are likely to accelerate globally. What's Coming Up Tim is travelling to Perth to speak at a Critical Battery Minerals conference, presenting CEF's recent report on China's expansion into critical minerals, strategic metals mining, and upstream value-adding, and the implications for Australia. 6–7 May 2026 — SEC Sydney Conference 12 May 2026 — Federal Budget 2026
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  Australia missing out on China's $120b global investment blitz - Tim Buckley Ep66 23.03.2026 45min

  Grant McDowell is in London and Tim Buckley is in Sydney recording the Spark Club Podcast on the 23rd March 2026 Highlights – Draft AER Default Market Offer Brilliant to see the Australian Energy Regulator has today flagged draft default market offer (DMO) electricity pricing down ⬇️ 1% to ⏬ 10% for residential consumers, and between ⬇️ 8% to ⏬ 21% for small business consumers The DMO sets an efficiently priced safety-net for households and small businesses on standing offer electricity plans and acts as a reference price to help consumers compare market offers. This is the draft ruling, with the final ruling released May 2026 for effect for the 12 months starting 1 July 2026. This is consistent with Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO)'s quarterly energy dynamics highlighting Australia hit a record high 51% RenewableEnergy share in the 4QCY2025, and wholesale electricity prices fell by >40% yoy as a result. Highlights – PRRT reform - Petroleum Resource Rent Tax - Dodge The ACTU this week is calling for a flat 25% tax on Australian LNG to replace the entirely failing PRRT, to capture the wind fall war-profits being generated, and to then use the massive tax revenues of up to $40bn to fund energy poverty relief across Australia. Highlights – CATL CY2025 results highlight their global leadership and scale Nothing short of staggering to watch the rise and rise of China's CATL to supremacy in battery manufacturing. Their speed & scale of technology innovation is amazing to see. 🔋 a ⏫ 42% yoy jump in net profit to Rmb72.2bn (US$10.4bn) before one-off items, on sales ⏫ 17% yoy to Rmb424bn. 🔋 a ⏫ 39% yoy lift in sales volume of lithium-ion batteries to 661GWh 🔋 CATL has a massive home market advantage. China is the world's largest EV & BESS market. China's EV industry continued to grow sales nearly 30% yoy to >16 million units. 🔋 CATL sold 541GWh of power batteries, ⏫ 41.9% yoy, propelling the company to a new all-time high in global market share. 🔋 CATL employs >23,000 R&D personnel, investing Rmb22bn in CY2025, +19% yoy (5.2% of sales). CATL stands as the sole battery industry firm selected for the "Top 100 Global Innovators." Total number of domestic & foreign patents owned and applied for by CATL reached 54,538. Lowlights The AFR is running a Minerals Council of Australia line that the Albanese government will ignore their super majority and leave the $11bn annual subsidy for high emissions super expensive imported diesel fuels in place. Claiming now is not the time. Tim disagrees. We need to learn from the current crisis and put in place Main Story – NEW CEF REPORT: CHINA'S $120bn INVESTMENT BLITZ INTO GLOBAL CRITICAL MINERALS LEAVES AUSTRALIA EXPOSED Climate Energy Finance report warns Australia's dig-and-ship economy faces a clear and present threat as China systematically diversifies away from Australian supply across lithium, iron ore and critical minerals New report released 19th March – Raw Power: China locks-in global dominance of critical minerals and metals with $120bn outbound investment surge – finds that China's accelerating outbound resource investment program is reducing China's supply chain risks and locking-in its global dominance of key materials as it diversifies away from its dependence on Australian exports. This presents a clear and present economic risk to Australia, particularly as we have yet to find a structure to allow our world leading mining sector to move meaningfully beyond "dig-and-ship". CEF's report finds that: Australia holds world-significant reserves of the critical minerals and strategic metals that underpin the zero-emissions economy – bauxite, copper, nickel, rare earths – and is the world's #1 exporter of both lithium and iron ore, with China the overwhelmingly dominant destination for both. Yet Australia fails to process onshore, as a result ranking 105th of 145 countries on Harvard's Atlas of Economic Complexity, behind Botswana and Côte d'Ivoire, with manufacturing accounting for just 6% of GDP. CEF has tracked China investing more than US$120bn around the globe into mining and upstream processing since 2023 – building lithium supply chains across Africa and South America, anchoring the US$23 billion Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, and increasingly developing in-country processing capacity across partner nations. This is starkly illustrated by Simandou, which delivered its first shipment to China in January. Once fully ramped up by 2029, it will make Guinea the world's third largest iron ore exporter, producing high grade ore suitable for green steel. It is the centrepiece of China's explicit strategy to reduce its 80% reliance on Australian and Brazilian iron ore supply, directly threatening Australia's long dominance. In lithium mining, China's own domestic production now outstrips Australia's, where as recently as 2023 Australia had a 50% global market share. The absence of new Chinese investment into Australian lithium is a direct reflection of China's strategic diversification, and the February 2026 closure of Albemarle's lithium hydroxide plant in WA after just four years is a stark consequence of China's capacity expansions,both on- and offshore, and the critical need for a public interest response by Australia's governments to protect our base industrial capacities on national interest grounds. A string of threatened closures across alumina, aluminium, nickel, copper, lead, zinc and steel signals our mining value-add sector is under existential pressure. KPMG tracks that Chinese outbound foreign direct investment (OFDI) into Australia has collapsed by 85% since 2018, in 2024 making up just 1.5% of total inbound OFDI, and at just US$882m, a fraction of the peak of US$16bn in 2008 – even as two-way Australia-China trade reached an all-time record of A$300bn in 2025. CEF notes the geopolitical move by Japan's JOGMEC in March 2026 to collaborate with Australia's Lynas Rare Earths to secure rare earth supply long term at an agreed and mutually beneficial price. This is the sort of strategic investment required to enhance global supply chain resilience and underwrite surety of supply. Far more effective and lasting than blunt import tariffs on everyone and threats. Australia's green industrial program – the Future Made in Australia (FMIA) initiative, backed by more than A$81bn in federal capital support since 2023, plus A$6bn from state governments – is directionally correct and strategically important, particularly in the absence of a sufficient carbon pollution price signal to mobilise private capital. However, FMIA must accelerate in both ambition and execution, and be leveraged to attract value-adding FOAK investment. We should carefully and selectively engage in partnership opportunities with China, the world's cleantech leader, before its diversification away from Australian supply becomes more pronounced. We make a number of recommendations including balancing policy support for foreign investment with targeted anti-dumping tariffs, local content mandates and onshore processing as a condition of new partnerships; accelerating public capital deployment to crowd-in private investment to value-adding industries; prioritising carbon pricing to value renewables-powered commodity value-adding; developing Green Energy Statecraft for national security, including an Australia-China Green Transition Cooperation Framework; and reforming Australia's foreign investment review regime to create a fast-track pathway for strategically aligned green projects. What's coming up? Tim is off to Hainan province in China next week for the Boao Forum business forum between Australia and China.
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  Local Content Push - 20% for wind towers in Australia - Tim Buckley - Ep65 22.02.2026 32min

  Grant McDowell & Tim Buckley– Spark Club Podcast 19 Feb 2026 - Hi and welcome to Spark Club podcast. I'm your host Grant McDowell. We are recording this podcast on the Garigal lands of the Eora nation and pay our respects to elders past and present. Welcome.  And welcome Tim Buckley. Highlights Domestic firmed RE deployment The Clean Energy Council's 4Q2025 Investment Report demonstrates a rebound in large-scale renewable energy and storage investment across Australia. The quarter delivered record commissioning outcomes across generation and batteries, strong financial close activity. Five renewable generation projects (1.2 GW) and 5 storage projects (1.1 GW) reached FID during 4Q2025, with total capex >$4 billion across generation, storage and hybrid assets. newly commissioned renewable and storage projects. Nine generation projects were completed totalling 2.1GW of new. 4 storage projects (1.9 GW / 4.9 GWh) became operational, beating records broken in Q3 2025, reinforcing Australia's accelerating energy transition. The forward pipeline remains robust. There are currently 81 generation projects (13GW) and 75 storage projects (13 GW / 35GWh) either financially committed or under construction. This month started with NSW awarding contracts to six huge 8-hour battery projects, including one of the biggest in Australia – the 300MW and 3,500 megawatt hour Great Western BESS, All are due to be completed by 2030, and some are supersized above eight hours of storage. 1.2 GW and 12 GWh of long duration storage, massively further undermining the role of methane and PHS. This week also saw NSW announce an extra tender for more firmed renewables capacity to fill looming coal gap under Long-Term Energy Service Agreements (LTESAs) to leverage the fast to deploy BESS and solar leveraging infill opportunities across NSW and importantly, leverage the Battery boom to get more zero emissions generation into the mix. CBAM KEY TO GREEN COMMODITY OPPORTUNITY: JOTZO REVIEW Professor Frank Jotzo's Carbon Leakage Review Report to Climate and Energy Minister Chris Bowen is finally public. https://www.dcceew.gov.au/about/news/carbon-leakage-review-final-report We agree with the review's finding that measures additional to the Safeguard Mechanism "may be required and desirable over time, for specific commodities at high exposure to carbon leakage risk in domestic markets…. A border carbon adjustment would be the most suitable option in these cases… [to] support the emergence of green commodity production in Australia, harnessing this country's opportunities to be a major contributor to global industrial decarbonisation through exports." It is clear that we need a price signal to drive decarbonisation of trade-exposed Australian industries through the extensive buildout of renewables infrastructure at speed and scale. Critical to all of the above is a price on carbon, leveraging and enhancing our domestic actions so as to provide a stronger signal for development of carbon pricing in international trade, and building on the price signal of the EU CBAM with an Asian CBAM, as we argued in our 2025 report. This would help catalyse investment into industrial decarbonisation at a speed and scale commensurate with the climate emergency and the green economy opportunity. GM - I'd like to pick up on minor issue relating to the design of the REGO in Australia replacing the LGC. The calculation mechanism for the Australian REGO is out of sync with the global standard. The REGO certificate is limited to the 1MWh per certificate rather than down to the watt hour per trading period. Sounds trivial but the REGO has a fundamental flaw as it requires the excess to be rolled over into the next trading period. This volume won't be accepted in the EU, meaning there will be small amounts of energy volume which can't be counted for every half hour trading period for the year. This flaw creates numerous problems as a global energy matching standard emerges in a number of forms; CBAMs in EU and Asia Green product standards - green hyrdogen green steel. and likely changes to GHGP Scope 2 in 2027. This minor flaw is annoying and with a minor change to the REGO now we can save Australian exporters a world of pain for years to come. Middle Powers Highlight As the Middle Powers are a big topic for us this year, was there anything that jumped out to you since our last conversation? EV Buses in India Tim - KKR investment in electric buses in India. EV busses in India are now 30% lower total cost of ownership relative to diesel alternatives. The 30% cost advantage was enough to get KR over the line to put capital into rolling out EV buses in India. Australia risks being wedged. Australia must be open to international trade with all nations and avoid being wedged between China and the US. Lowlights Whyalla The SA Government has shelved their green hydrogen plans last year, and now the SA Treasurer has overtly flagged their intention to double down on the false dreams of a gas led recovery for the Whyalla Steelworks. Meanwhile this week saw the SA Premier provide a joint Federal-State $20m support for the magnetite mining sector is SA to boost 2Mtpa magnetite mining, a move we endorse. As per CEF's report last year, we think the government should support a multiphase redevelopment of the iron ore to green steel sector of SA by expanding magnetite mining and supporting a new greenfield RE-powered EAF to replace the beyond end of life blast furnace, and to ensure steel supply for downstream fabrication. Secondly our governments should use a chunk of the $500m Green iron investment fund to support semi-commercial scale deployments of Australian technologies to produce decarbonised iron and steel, namely a pilot Element Zero electrolyte green iron plant, a second 30ktpa Calix ZESTY magnetite to green iron plant and a 8ktpa BioCarbon plant, plus incentivising scrap steel recycling within state to feed the new EAF, with the majority of the input material imported for the first 5 years of operation. A phase 2 in the early 2030s would be to build a GH2 and RE powered green iron plant once the economics are stronger, and a path towards an Asian CBAM is better established. Main Story – Local content mandate – Ministers Ayres and Bowen are holding a rapid industry consultation about a new Future Made in Australia (FMIA) policy to incentivise local wind tower and transmission tower manufacturing. CEF has worked over the last year with an industry consortium and we pitched this exact policy initiative to the minister in December. Our recommendation was a policy with four pronged policy A 20% national mandate for wind tower local content, leveraging and collaborating with low cost Chinese suppliers A Production Credit to ensure the policy doesn't increase the cost of wind power to consumers A clear long term volume target of 4GW of new wind annually to underpin factory utilisation Capex assistance for the new factories required. Interesting to see the EU this week do boosting local content mandates, The EU's upcoming Industrial Accelerator Act could signal a pivotal moment for green steel producers in northern Sweden. New "Made in Europe" rules are thought to require at least 25% low-carbon steel in public procurement and subsidy-backed projects. Green hydrogen-based production, electric arc furnaces, and scrap-based methods are, according to Bloomberg, explicitly highlighted as priority technologies. What's coming up? Tim is attending the community engagement in the Hunter Valley this week, to help build social licence, and then over the next couple of weeks attending and speaking at a number of conferences e.g. Cambridge Institute of Sustainability Leaders (CISL) Group in Melbourne and Sydney and the Clean Energy Investor Group conference (CEIG) annual investor conference in Melbourne, Climate Action Week in Sydney the following week, then the Sydney Storage conference.
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  Setting the Stage for 2026 - Tim Buckley Ep64 03.02.2026 45min

  Quick 2025 retrospective We see the Climate Energy Finance's role as to provide a narrative difference to the mainstream media, and to try to leverage global / non-US developments to better inform Australia's understanding of the energy system transformation, the threats and opportunities for Australia. Our three main pillars of conversation in 2025 were; China BESS - Batteries were likely to surprise, and they certainly did, even CEF's most bullish expectations. Australia's opportunity to go faster with some wins and many frustrations. And Carbon peaked emissions in 2024, flat to down in 2025 – despite 5% GDP growth. Big themes 2026 – From Grant McDowell In 2025 we discussed the rise and rise of China. In 2026 I think we'll see the rise and rise of the middle powers. New world disorder is opening up opportunities for China to collaborate with the middle powers, and beyond. China has learned from the mistakes of the Belt Road Initiative and seeking to collaborate. China's EVs are displacing over one million barrels of oil demand a day. The middle powers are moving from molecules to electrons for clean electricity and transport. Middle powers are tired of being lumbered with decades long expensive fossil generators are now leaning into many small and cheap. See Ethiopia's ban on petrol and diesel vehicle imports. Carbon trajectory – EU CBAM helps set a new market for world trade and carbon polluting countries. So once again we'll be following the work of Ember and Lauri Myllyirta. And our conversations will naturally include Australia. I'll be watching our energy transformation closely as we face a chicken and egg problem. As coal generation is extended investors are reluctant to back utility scale wind and solar projects. Which then allows the coal generation to extend. Utility scale batteries will play a role, however wind generation is key and every effort should be made to deploy, deploy, deploy. Lets review each of those in turn. - Tim Buckley China's "Small and beautiful", a positive reframing of the BRI to a more win-win-win approach. Mark Carney's middle powers speech, the India-UK FTA, and countries across Africa et al embracing electrification and energy independence, Small and beautiful, a reframing of the BRI to a more win-win-win approach. CEF has tracked >US%210bn of OFDI in cleantech since 2023. CEF has another major report pending on this, looking at China going global in resources and resource-value-adding over the last 3 years. Carbon trajectory - 100% agree. China will spend the next 2 years expanding their national ETS by 50% to cover major industrial sectors, and then when ready, they'll starting talking about international alignment with the EU CBAM. Meanwhile, they will get ready. Japan's GX-ETS strategy includes carbon pricing being launched from April 2026, covering 60% of national emissions, a floor and ceiling price out to 2035, by 2030 A$18=46/t, then doubling again by 2035. Australia electricity generation problems - True The CIS has to move from a lot of large scale announcements through to delivering projects into FID and construction, at speed and scale. Jury still out. AEMO 4QCY2025 Scorecard confirms this – strong growth in the pipeline across Australia, but not enough generation getting through FID. We are making progress. Great to see this week AEMO QED 4QCY2025 talk about RE being >50% for 4QCY2025 and the result was a near halving of electricity prices. And a lot of the media framing of the heatwaves of the last few weeks in South East Australia was how CER and solar is increasing grid resilience and providing power when most needed. A very positive reframing. Other CEF priorities in 2026: Fuel Tax Credits Re FTC - In December 2025, Battery-electric heavy duty trucks crossed 50% of new sales in China. That is profound for accelerating the electrification of everything story (think passenger EV adoption, energy independence, a $50bn pa onshoring on energy supply into Australia) and for CEF's work in diesel fuel rebate reform, give we need to embrace this, rather than keep providing an $11bn imported diesel fuel subsidy headwind to decarbonisation of mining and trucking. Safeguard mechanism review Green metal exports Government capital deployment still too slow And it wouldn't be a talk with CEF without talking about China, again and again! The new installs out for December 2025 this week are mind-blowing, again.
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  Can Australia lead the way in Green Steel? - Tim Buckley Ep63 23.11.2025 43min

  Spark Club Podcast Ep 63 -21st Nov 2025 Hosted by Grant McDowell and guest this week, Tim Buckley Highlights BESS deployments booming Batteries are the biggest disruptive force in global energy markets in 2025. Australia becomes world's third-largest utility battery market. Rho Motion reports Grid-scale BESS market saw 12.7GWh of new capacity enter operations globally in October 2025, +29% y-o-y. Meanwhile, global YTD deployments have reached 156GWh, +38% yoy. China led new operational capacity with 8.8GWh of utility scale BESS added in the Oct 2025 month – double what Australia will do this year – including one giga-scale vanadium flow battery. Powering Past Coal Alliance South Korea announces Powering Past Coal Alliance at COP30 in Brazil. Has consequences for Australia's future coal exports. Lowlights China RE capacity installs slow significantly China ended a major VRE incentive program in May 2025, which saw a massive pull forward of solar and wind installs, with a world record month of >90GW installed just in the month of May 2025, meaning ytd installs were double in 5MCY2025. Fast forward the following 5 months, and new RE installs have been running at just 12GW per month (still a monthly run rate double what Australia will do this year). The silver lining is that national emissions in China are still 10 months into 2025 down yoy, having possibly peaked back in March 2024. Steel and cement production in the month of Oct'2025 was down 5-10% yoy, so despite strong electricity demand driving thermal power generation +5% yoy, emissions overall for the month of Oct 2025 were down yoy. Tomago Closure Threats Rio Tinto is threatening to close Tomago aluminium smelter due to their inability to access cheap coal power beyond 2028. It is great to hear that the Federal Govt. is closely evaluating a financial intervention that provides a permanent decarbonisation solution that is globally cost competitive – but will, if delivered, represent a major shift away from the "free markets" doctrine of Australia over the last few decades that has guttered our manufacturing and value-add sectors. COP31 goes to Türkiye. What does it mean for Bowen and Adelaide. Main Story – Whyalla steel works CEF released our new report A Strategy for Whyalla: Enabling the Transformation and Decarbonisation of the Steelworks Leveraging targeted industry and climate policy to support a first-of-a-kind Australian capital deployment into firmed RE to produce GH2 & then green iron. Our report discusses the challenges facing SA in terms of energy supply pathways – there is a fork in the road ahead, methane lock-in or going the higher cost, higher risk GH2 route that aligns with the global need to drive decarbonisation and hence in building a commercial deployment to show how this can be done. This comes with all the risks of very slow GH2 deployments globally to-date and the still very high capital costs, and FOAK risks. So we would suggest a cautious evaluation of this, whilst pursuing policies of no regrets now. We recommend the SA Govt: Build magnetite mining capacities – high quality, low impurity Build the enabling RE firming and grid infrastructure ahead of demand Build a green steel EAF Build downstream steel fabrication capacities for domestic market needs Underwrite FOAF semi-commercial technology deployments in the Australian context – Calix ZESTY was one of our picks, but they are going to Kwinana WA thanks to a major new deal this week with Rio Tinto, Element Zero and DryFlow? Prepare the ground work for a GH2 powered DRI value-add plant as phase 2 to say reach FID in 5 years time Meanwhile, keep putting bandaids on the end of life steel works to elk out another few years. All of this gives clarity to the workforce and communities that they wont be left behind, but avoids locking in unproven GH2 till smaller FOAK deployments are proven up e.g. Also, news on Orica's 50MW at Newcastle here in NSW. What's coming up? Next WED Tim is in Canberra joining ATSE for a diesel fuel rebate conference in Canberra. In early December Tim is joining the NSW Government delegation for a battery forum in Guangdong China – this is a sister state arrangement going for 46 years now. End
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  Al Gore says stop Australia's diesel fuel subsidy - Tim Buckley Ep62 02.11.2025 44min

  Spark Club Podcast recorded on 31 October 2025 Highlights BESS deployments booming in Australia Batteries are the biggest disruptive force in global energy markets in 2025. Australia becomes world's third-largest utility battery market. Australia has overtaken the UK to rank behind China and the US in utility-scale battery capacity, with 14GW/37GWh of projects at or nearing financial close. Rystad Energy estimates the Australian pipeline of battery projects jumped 45GW in one year from 109GW in August 2024 to 154GW now. Meanwhile Minister Bowen is rightly crowing about the >100,000 home battery installs so far. Worth noting the world's largest hybrid BESS by MASDAR in the UAE, a 5GW solar and 19GWh BESS designed to provide 1GW of 24/7 power supply commenced construction this week. And AEMO's new 3Q2025 Quarterly Energy Dynamics report reveals that average wholesale electricity prices across the National Electricity Market, fell to $87/MWh, down 27% on the same quarter last year. AEMO says the surge in battery storage – up an average 461MW in the evening peaks – clearly had an impact on other peaking generation sources, with gas fired generation down 11%. All of these factors also helped the renewable share hit a new 3Q high of 42.7%, nearly 10% higher than the Q3 average of 39.3% last year. You'd never know this reading the mainstream climate science denialist media! AEMO's Quarterly Energy dynamics report had great news for Minister Bowen.  China The September 2025 electricity generation statistics for China show a ⬇️ 5.4% yoy decline in coal and gas generation for the September month, and a ⬇️ 1.2% yoy decline in the first nine months. And with cement production volumes -5.2% yoy YTD 2025, and crude steel volumes -2.9% yoy YTD 2025, that is consistent with Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA)'s suggestion that China's national emissions peaked back in March 2024. Rho Motion reports China's EV sales in the first nine months of 2025 are 9.0m, +24% yoy, largely in line with the global rate of +26% yoy (given China is 61% of global EV sales in 2025 YTD), while China's EV exports are booming. Lowlights Sanjeev Gupta strikes Australia again, and again, this time InfraBuild InfraBuild reported a net loss of $250m in FY2025 and is likely trading while insolvent, thanks to Gupta have borrowed $1.07bn of really expensive debt against it. Beyond time ASIC acted against directors. Tomago Closure Threats Rio Tinto is threatening to close Tomago aluminium smelter due to their inability to access cheap coal power beyond 2028. Oliver Yates has proposed a simple government intervention to ensure low cost zero emissions firmed #RE to permanently solve this problem. We cant afford to have every multinational corporate lining up for $100-1000m subsidies, blackmailing the Federal Government trying valiantly to implement their FMIA, 82% RE by 2030 and Green Metal Exports policies. The Methane Gas lobby is out in force The NSW and SA governments are out lobbying on behalf of SANTOS, trying to force Narrabri gas development through again, and again. Meanwhile the SA government announced another $17m taxpayer subsidy for new methane gas developments in SA. BlueScope is leading a manufacturing lobby group calling for more gas development. The obvious solution is to accelerate electrification of everything so we permanently remove our addiction to fossil fuels. Main Story – Fossil fuel subsidies It was Tim's pleasure to met former US Vice President Al Gore at the IGCC annual investor conference, and then for a follow up private session hosted by Wollemi and SEC with Australia's largest Asset Owners. Al Gore had Tim when he demanded governments should stop giving fossil fuel companies subsidies! Al Gore stamina and determination is seriously impressive, he spoke for over an hour at IGCC then gave a lunch presentation and then another afternoon presentation. CEF continues to advocate for the Federal Government to reform the diesel fuel rebate, a $12bn annual subsidy for expensive high emissions imported diesel. It was brilliant to have Matt Kean, Chair of the CCA repeatedly call out this massive $12bn annual subsidy by Treasurer Jim Chalmers, the 15th largest budget expense item, and promote CEF's Transition Tax Incentive idea to instead incentivise the mining majors to invest in electrification and decarbonisation. CEF will be working with a growing coalition of aligned voices from CANA, LEAN, ACTU and Fortescue et al to push for this long overdue reform, particularly given it would be perfect announceable for Minister Bowen if and when Australia gets the COP31 presidency! What's coming up? Next week Tim is joining the ACBC for a full day discussion on Australia-China Energy Transition Dialogue then 2 days with the Climate Capital Forum in its third Parliament House delegation this year to discuss key issues in cleantech – YFYS, diesel fuel rebate and getting public capital deployments accelerated. Then in December Tim is joining the NSW Government for a battery forum in Guangdong China.
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  Time to Act on Greenhouse Gas Protocol Scope 2 - Killian Daly Ep61 12.10.2025 28min

  We invited Killian Daly, CEO of Energy Tag, on to the Spark Club podcast on the 10th October. We recorded the podcast in London at an industry event.  The reason for having Killian on is it's an important time for ensuring the policy settings are right for updating the Greenhouse Gas Protocol Scope 2 Guidance. The discussion paper will be released next week, with a two month public consultation period.  It's a great conversation about a common sense approach, grounded in the physics of energy, and how we need to make it accessible to everyone, even my Mum and Killian's Dad.  Everyone in the cleantech industry in Australia, and around the globe, is advised to follow this important update to GHG Protocal Scope 2. The changes will deterime how future large corporate emissions will be reported. The accounting standards need to be updated to meet the needs of ongoing deployment of wind, solar and batteries into the 2030's and beyond.   You can follow Killian Daly on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/killianpdaly/ EnergyTag link - https://energytag.org/ GHG Protocol Scope 2 link - https://ghgprotocol.org/scope-2-guidance Please share this episode with your network. Thanks The team at Spark Club.  
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  Emissions targets are a thing. Tim Buckley Ep60 05.10.2025 40min

  Spark Club Podcast recorded on the 3rd October 2025 Highlights China's Envision announces a green passport for wind turbines Envision Energy, announced this week that its main wind turbine has been internationally certified via the Environmental Product Declarations (EPD) platform. 🔹 85–90% recyclability, maximizing circular economy potential 🔹 Supply chains on track for 100% green electricity by 2028 🔹 Transparent, internationally recognized carbon accounting China's cleantech leaders are embracing an international alignment to build collaboration and a race to the top on climate, even as the US abrogates their global leadership daily. Fortescue keeps powering towards Real Zero FMG this week announced significant new MoUs for international collaboration with global cleantech leaders to deploy world leading zero emissions technologies in Australia, and in the Pilbara. Dressed up as a global announcement mentioning a Spainish wind technology and repeating details on FMG's alliance with Germany's Leibherr BEV mining equipment, the names in these MoUs that stand out to me were CATL, BYD, LONGi, Envision Energy and XCMG. If you haven't guessed, the common aspect of these firms is that they are all Chinese cleantech leaders. Battery announcements in Australia are coming thick and fast Australia's operating BESS capacity hit 6.5GWh this week, and we have had new BESS developments literally ever day across Australia in recent months. Minister Bowen's Home Battery subsidy program has continued at 1000 new installs per day, with >72k since 1 July 2025 – widely successful and really building momentum – speed and scale to boost confidence that DER and CER are going to play a much larger role than any models showed even a few years ago, and reminding everyone that batteries on wheels means V2G is only to going to accelerate the grids ability to absorb ever higher VRE penetrations. Lowlights BHP keeps walking back its decarbonisation ambitions Reflective of the climate luddite board and CEO, and lowering of climate ambitions from key US investors thanks to Trump, BHP has walked back its decarbonisation investments. And even as Chinese mining EV and truck technologies are taking off in 2025 like passenger vehicle EVs did in the last 2 years, BHP's allegiance to the climate luddites at Caterpillar US means they are pretending to be blind to the opportunities emerging in their #1 export destination i.e. China. But China has given BHP a rather large kick this past week -putting an open ended ban on BHP sourced iron ore imports to China. A timely reminder that we ignore our #1 trade partner at our own peril! Main Story – Australia's 62-70% Emissions target for 2035 & Lifting Capital deployments Minister Bowen announced a 62-70% emissions reduction by 2035 target, supported by the CCA 's Matt Kean as requiring a halving of emissions in just one decade, a more than doubling of the current run-rate of reductions achieved over the last decade. This requires a whole of economy approach to emissions reduction, a far wider approach than we have seen to-date, which has relied primarily on electricity sector decarbonisation. The Government's DCCEEW has released 6 key sector plans to guide the approach covering electricity and energy, ag and land use, the built environment, industry, resources and transport. The government has also stepped up public capital allocations to support FOAK deployments of new technologies and de-risk supply chains and crowd in private capital. A new $1.1bn low emissions liquid fuels funding was announced, plus an additional $2bn equity top-up to CEFC, and a re-assignment of $5bn of NRF's $15bn allocation (95% un-used to-date) into a Net Zero Fund. CEF has been tracking government funding – both on-budget and capital allocations e.g. to CEFC, NRF, EFA and NAIF, and we have tracked $76bn of Federal allocations since the start of 2023, and another $6bn of state allocations. But positively, we have tracked some $16bn of deployments since December 2024, and there is a noticeable lift in activity and efforts to get the money Chalmers has put on the table out the door and working. ARENA has 4 major tenders under way, Bowen has 4 CIS tenders underway (2 WA and 2 NEM), and EFA / DFAT have 3 allocations totalling $400m in the last 3 months from the $2bn Southeast Asia Investment Financing Facility PM Albanese established last year. Certainly CEF's engagement via the ARIA with various Federal Government ministries and departments over recent weeks confirms a strong elevation of efforts to get decarbonisation, electrification, green exports and FMIA actions underway. We also saw In an address to the UN General Assembly Chinese President Xi Jinping announce China's target to reduce carbon emissions by 7-10% from their peak by 2035. Australia's move was supported by a Progress report on China's national carbon market (2025) by China's Ministry of Ecology and Environment that stressed the strong progress towards carbon markets applying to all industry in China by 2027, and stressing that China aims to "accelerate the building of a more effective, dynamic & internationally influential carbon market." This is critically important for Australia. If Australia is to build green value-added commodity exports at the speed and scale required to offset the expected decline in our fossil fuel exports, we have to move beyond government funding of FOAK projects to private financing, which will require a price on embedded decarbonisation in Asian trade i.e. we need a path to an Asian CBAM to extend and leverage the EU ETS. What's coming up? Lots more conferences and forums coming up – Industry Minister Tim Aryes is hosting a Sydney NRF NZF forum, Mission Possible is hosting a Build Clean Now – Australia workshop (both those are invite only events), then we have the IGCC conference in Sydney 16-17th Oct then later this month I'm off to Singapore to give a keynote address to an Asian Cleantech investor forum, then in December I'm joining the NSW Government for a battery forum in Guangdong China. EnergyLab Announcement Join the 2025 EnergyLab Scaleup Showcase, an exclusive online event celebrating the groundbreaking startups shaping the future of clean energy. 📅 Date & Time Wednesday, 15 October 2025 10:00 – 11:00 AEDT 📍 Location Zoom Webinar – Register here
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  Is Australia a Petro State or an Electro State? Tim Buckley Ep59 14.09.2025 41min

  Highlights China Cleantech Exports Boom Lauri Myllyvirta @CREA notes value of China's exports of clean energy technologies hit a new all-time record in July, passing the previous high from March 2023. China exported $18.4bn worth of solar and wind power equipment, EVs and batteries during the month. Australia Brazil Chamber of Commence Forum ABCC business forum in the lead up to COP30, Organised by the wonderful Mara Bun. We also head about Brazil looking to develop world leading green iron projects. Lowlights Qld LNP State Government Capture by the Fossil fuel Industry looks complete Climate science deniers in the State LNP have stopped Queensland's powerful progress towards energy transition and decarbonisation, taking heart at the stupidity of Trump in the US to replicate his corruption of democracy Last week's decision to pull legislation enabling the development of Westwind's 1.2GW Forest Wind project in a state pine forest – a monoculture with low biodiversity – creates massive investor uncertainty. Meanwhile, building on Adani's success in winning a 7 year royalty holiday for their Galilee coal mine from the LNP. Rumours that the development of the Galilee Coal Basin is back on the agenda, most likely led by climate science denying Gina and her sidekick billionaire mate, Clive. Bowden Lead Mine progressing in NSW Environmental Solicitor Elaine Jonston is working with the local community of Mudgee to protect them against a proposed lead-zinc-silver mine development 2km from a school. BHP defers decarbonisation Really disappointing to hear BHP has walked back their decarbonisation investments, cancelling solar and BESS in the Pilbara even as they say mining EV technologies are not commercially viable as yet. Main Story EU Delegation to WA re Green Hydrogen and Iron Tim attended and spoke at a Green Hydrogen and Iron forum in Perth organised by the Danish and German Governments to develop EU-Australia strategic agreements in decarbonisation of industry. The 30 strong delegation from the EU spent 3 days touring the Pilbara and Midwest WA, the two major areas of iron ore mining, and the locations for potential DRI and green iron refineries. A follow-on private meeting with the WA Premier was set for this week to try to seal inter-government cooperation for this geopolitically important FOA deal in green iron for Australia to proceed toward FEED and FID and then into construction. Tim's hope is Minister Bowen gets to announce 3 lighthouse green iron deals as president of COP31, leveraging public-private bilateral / trilateral deals with Germany, China and Korea/Japan Coming up Hopefully this month we will see if Adelaide is to host COP30 next November 2026, in partnership with the Pacific. The process remains opaque and tortuous, and bizarrely if Australia cant convince Turkey to pull out, we both lose and Germany gets to host it. We also have the National Risk Assessment for Climate report pending, its sitting on Minister Bowen's desk, alongside Dr Frank Jotzo's final carbon leakage review report, and the 2035 NDC for Australia. Lets hope Bowen listens to the climate science and sets our target at 75% rather than the BCA's total lack of ambition going for more like 60%.  
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  Australia's diesel addiction problem - Tim Buckley Ep58 23.08.2025 37min

  Highlights Adelaide Green iron conference Tim attends and presents at the WEF / Greenhouse green iron event, with almost 200 people from government, industry, think tanks and finance talking about the opportunities for green iron projects. A key need is for Australia to get a couple of proposals to FID and into construction, and this is a key opportunity should Australia win #COP31 – to announce bilateral agreements and public-private support for a German-Australia, a China-Australia and a Japan-Korea-Australia trilateral deal into FID. China's emissions down - Clean-energy growth helped China's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions fall by 1% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, extending a declining trend that started in March 2024. Lowlights Canberra - Not getting allocated funds off the table and out the door Energy Renaissance goes into receivership BHP  BHP Results this past week shows a distinct lack of pressure for BHP to show any serious climate effort, claiming EV technologies aren't ready, and BHP has deferred any material investment till next decade! Main Story - Diesel Fuel Rebate subsidy reform CEF's new report on Diesel Fuel Rebate subsidy reform "Transition Tax Incentive: Reforming Fuel Tax Credits into a Decarbonisation Tailwind" A policy proposal to phase-out the fuel tax credit scheme for its largest beneficiaries with a transition tax incentive scheme to accelerate electrification and decarbonisation. Since the Fuel Tax Act 2006 (starting FY07), the FTC Scheme has provided $123bn in diesel subsidies to FY25. Beyond this, by FY30, it will have provided $184bn in subsidies. What's coming up? A Green Hydrogen and Iron conference in Perth 4-5 Sept 2025, building momentum towards a German-Austral ia bilateral green iron agreement.
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  Will Europe Deploy, Deploy, Deploy? - Linda Romanovska Ep57 20.08.2025 44min

  Spark Club - Linda Romanovska Introduction to Linda to provide context for the conversation Highlights Recent trip to Canberra with Climate Capital Forum International Court of Justice Opinion and the visit of Simon Stiell to Australia Lowlights The confusion and unproductive distraction cause by the "Omnibus" process – formally aimed at "simplification", but realistically is "deregulation" of corporate sustainability. Main Story Europe Repeated, and unrelenting commitment to the EU Green Deal Objectives re-enforced on key recent policy documents, such as the "Competitiveness Compass". It sets the new direction of the EU organised under 3 pillars: Pillar I: Closing the innovation gap Pillar II: A joint roadmap for decarbonisation and competitiveness – Clean Industrial Act Pillar II: Reducing excessive dependencies and increasing security. What's coming up? Finalisation of the 2040 target - amending the Climate Law to include a legally binding target of net 90% GHG emissions reduction by 2040 (in time for COP 30) Probably joint climate ambition announcements with China
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  Australia's Energy Transformation Progress - Tim Buckley Ep56 03.08.2025 45min

  Highlights Australia's Federal Senate Disinformation inquiry ARENA award to Calix $45m Allegra Spender Productivity and Tax Roundtable Lowlights Lithium Hydroxide Refinery Write-off by IGO Main Story The Race to 82% Renewables  AEMO's Quarterly Energy Dynamics 2QCY2025 Methane gas generation plays an important but small and progressively declining role 25% upscaling of the CIS Big BESS News What's coming up? CEF hoping Minister Bowen will go the top end of the CCA's 65-75% reduction target. Australia is yet to win the presidency of #COP31, if we do, that will be a key priority for CEF's Caroline Wang over the coming 15 months. End