Oil Ground Up

Why Oil Tankers Still Are Not Returning to the Strait of Hormuz 23.06.2026 48мин

Rory Johnston welcomes maritime historian and shipping expert Dr. Sal Mercogliano to Oil Ground Up for a deep dive into the evolving Strait of Hormuz crisis and what it means for global oil markets. Together, they examine why commercial shipping ground to a halt, how tanker operators are weighing risk versus reward, and why reopening one of the world's most important energy chokepoints is far more complicated than simply declaring it open. The conversation also explores Iran's newly established Persian Gulf Strait Authority, the challenges of clearing sea mines, crew shortages, and the logistical hurdles that could keep oil flows below pre-conflict levels for months. Sal explains why shipping—not just oil prices—holds the key to understanding the next phase of this geopolitical crisis, and why supply chains may never return to the way they were before the conflict began.

Bob McNally on Hormuz, Oil Prices, and the End of Energy Security Assumptions 29.05.2026 1ч 4мин

Rory Johnston welcomes legendary energy analyst Bob McNally to Oil Ground Up for a sweeping conversation on the Strait of Hormuz crisis, global oil supply disruptions, and the fragile state of today’s energy markets. Bob reflects on decades of experience spanning the White House, hedge funds, and energy consulting while explaining why the closure of Hormuz represents a historic shift in how the world must think about oil security and geopolitical risk. The discussion dives deep into Iran’s leverage over global energy flows, the growing disconnect between physical oil fundamentals and financial markets, and why many traders may still be underestimating the long-term consequences of this disruption. Rory and Bob also explore what reopening Hormuz could realistically look like, why inventories and shipping flows remain critical, and how this crisis may permanently reshape investment in global hydrocarbons. From oil demand destruction and rising geopolitical premiums to the future of North American energy dominance, this episode offers one of the most comprehensive macro discussions yet on the evolving global energy landscape.

How Iran Weaponized the World’s Most Important Oil Chokepoint 22.05.2026 1ч 7мин

Edward Fishman joins Rory for a sweeping conversation on the evolution of modern economic warfare, the origins of U.S. sanctions strategy against Iran, and how today’s Strait of Hormuz crisis is reshaping global energy markets in real time. Drawing from his book Choke Points, Fishman explains how sanctions, secondary sanctions, and financial pressure campaigns evolved from quiet Treasury Department diplomacy into one of America’s most powerful geopolitical tools. The discussion also explores why oil prices have remained surprisingly subdued despite major supply disruptions, including the role of Trump’s public interventions, market psychology, and the growing belief that geopolitical risk no longer guarantees an oil price spike. Rory and Eddie debate whether Iran has permanently changed the balance of power in the Persian Gulf by effectively institutionalizing control over the Strait of Hormuz and what that means for global trade, shipping, and future sanctions policy. The conversation revisits the Obama-era sanctions campaign, the collapse of the JCPOA, the rise of shadow fleets and sanctions evasion, and how both China and Iran have adapted to years of American economic pressure. From nuclear negotiations and frozen Iranian assets to tanker tolls, oil inventories, and the limits of American power, this episode connects decades of economic statecraft to the rapidly changing geopolitical landscape investors face today.

Energy Stocks Are Still Cheap? Eric Nuttall Explains the Opportunity 07.05.2026 1ч 1мин

Eric Nuttall joins the Oil Ground Up podcast to discuss what he believes is the largest energy supply shock in modern history following the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. He explains why markets remain dangerously complacent despite massive global inventory drawdowns, rising geopolitical risks, and the potential for structurally higher oil prices well into the future. The conversation dives into why energy equities still appear deeply undervalued, how Canadian oil producers could benefit from a long-term supply crunch, and why Nuttall sees a generational opportunity emerging in the sector. Nuttall also outlines the risks investors should be watching closely, including possible U.S. export restrictions, weakening demand from higher fuel prices, and continued volatility tied to Middle East tensions. The discussion further explores the future of U.S. shale growth, Canada’s pipeline constraints, and the strategic importance of energy infrastructure in an increasingly unstable global market. From inventory math to capital flows, this episode offers a deep dive into the macro forces reshaping global oil markets and the investment landscape around them.

Tracking Tankers Through Chaos: Shadow Fleets, Blockades, and the New Oil War 29.04.2026 54мин

Maritime intelligence expert Michelle Bockmann joins the Oil Ground Up podcast to unpack the unprecedented disruption in global oil flows following the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. She explains how Iran’s shadow fleet has continued operating under the radar while broader tanker traffic has collapsed, with U.S. enforcement sharply curtailing exports and reshaping global supply routes. The conversation dives into the complexities of tracking “dark” vessels, the role of satellite intelligence, and the growing challenges posed by GPS jamming, drone warfare, and misinformation in maritime data. Bockmann also highlights the human and commercial realities behind the crisis, from stranded crews and insurance breakdowns to the difficult risk calculations facing shipowners. As oil markets grapple with dislocated supply chains, she outlines why reopening the Strait could take weeks to clear and months to normalize. The discussion further explores geopolitical ripple effects, including OPEC tensions and shifting trade flows through alternative routes like the Red Sea. Ultimately, Bockmann offers a grounded view on what to watch next, emphasizing that while the blockade is effective, uncertainty and disruption remain the defining features of today’s global oil market.

Amena Bakr on the Market Blindness to the 13 Million Barrel Shock 24.04.2026 1ч 5мин

Amena Bakr, the Head of Middle East Research at Kpler, joins Rory to provide an inside look at the functional closure of the Strait of Hormuz, where daily traffic has collapsed from 170 vessels to just 5% of its pre-war levels. The sources indicate that even with an optimistic base case for normalization in August, clearing the backlog of 800+ trapped ships will likely take at least two additional months. Amena warns that the threat of maritime mines remains a strategic "wild card" that could extend the recovery timeline by up to six months. The discussion breaks down the "Iran Lane" management system and the controversial $2 million cryptocurrency tolls being reported by vessel owners seeking to bypass the blockade. With roughly 13 million barrels per day of production shut in, the discussion explores the physical damage to downstream assets and a potential five-year recovery timeline for Qatari LNG trains. Johnston and Amena address the market's underreaction to the crisis, citing the distorting effects of presidential social media posts and alleged price manipulation that has kept Brent near $100. Beyond the energy sector, the blockade is triggering a "reality check" for global supply chains, specifically impacting the helium supply necessary for semiconductors and medical imaging. Finally, the conversation highlights how OPEC is attempting to provide a "steady hand" and structural predictability while the region prepares for a post-war status quo where regional pipelines may permanently replace the Strait

Paper vs Physical: Inside Oil’s $30 Backwardation Shock with Veteran Trader Adi Imsirovic 17.04.2026 46мин

Adi Imsirovic, a veteran oil trader and former academic, returns to the podcast to break down the mechanics of the Brent market at a moment of historic disruption. With more than 13 million barrels per day of supply offline and extreme volatility across the curve, Imsirovic explains how oil pricing actually works beneath the surface—distinguishing between physical “dated” Brent and financial futures, and why the recent divergence between the two is not a market failure, but a reflection of timing, scarcity, and panic-driven demand for immediate barrels.The conversation dives into the structure of the Brent complex, including forward markets, CFDs, and the role of exchange-for-physical mechanisms that link paper and physical trading. Imsirovic argues that the record backwardation—at times reaching nearly thirty dollars between prompt and forward barrels—signals not just tightness, but outright panic in physical markets as refiners scramble to secure supply. These dynamics are further amplified by surging premiums for specific crude grades and growing dislocations between refinery margins and input costs.Finally, the discussion turns to what the futures curve is really signaling. While front-end prices reflect immediate scarcity, longer-dated contracts suggest expectations for eventual resolution, with OPEC spare capacity and potential demand destruction looming in the background. Imsirovic emphasizes that price structure—not just flat price—holds the key to understanding oil markets, particularly in an environment shaped as much by geopolitical shocks and policy volatility as by traditional supply-demand fundamentals.

Record Backwardation: Understanding the Economic Return of USO in the Midst of a Global Supply Loss 09.04.2026 56мин

John Love, the CEO of USCF Investments, joins the podcast to celebrate the 20th anniversary of the United States Oil Fund (USO), which was the third commodity ETF ever launched. He explains that unlike physical gold funds, USO provides investors with access to the oil market by holding futures contracts, effectively "equitizing" a complex asset class that would otherwise require managing margin calls and rolling positions. A key distinction Love makes is that USO is designed to track the daily economic return of its underlying contracts, not the long-term spot price of oil, meaning its performance is heavily influenced by the "roll yield".The conversation addresses the current record backwardation in WTI, which recently saw prompt spreads hit $15 a barrel, a historic level of physical scarcity driven by the ongoing Hormuz energy crisis. This volatility is compared to the "uncharted territory" of April 2020, when futures prices plummeted to negative $37, forcing the fund to temporarily shift from a front-month strategy to a multi-contract basket to ensure stability. Finally, while there is political pressure for "drill, baby, drill" in the U.S., Love observes that many producers remain cautious due to capital discipline and the inability to lock in high spot prices on the back end of the futures curve.

Brutal Barrel Math: The Destruction of 10+ Million Barrels a Day Demand 02.04.2026 58мин

Karim Fawaz joins the Oil Ground Up podcast to analyze the relentless four-week closure of the Strait of Hormuz and its impact on global energy balances. The conversation explores why futures markets are "grievously underpricing" the current physical loss of 12 to 13 million barrels per day, a shock Fawaz describes as orders of magnitude more severe than any recent crisis. Unlike the managed demand destruction of the pandemic, this unmanaged supply loss forces a chaotic rebalancing that threatens to trigger a "global depressionary contraction" across the global South. The guests delve into the "Unilateral Taco" scenario, analyzing the potential collapse of the Carter Doctrine if President Trump chooses to withdraw U.S. security guarantees from the region. The discussion highlights the emergence of "Fortress North America," noting that the U.S. and Canada are uniquely positioned to weather the crisis through domestic production and flexible refining capacity. Ultimately, Fawaz warns that this is no longer just an intellectual exercise in balancing spreadsheets, but a human catastrophe with life-or-death consequences for millions.

An End to the Carter Doctrine? - What it would Mean if US Left the War While the Strait is Still Shut? 31.03.2026 52мин

Gregory Brew of Eurasia Group joins Rory to discuss the potential collapse of the Carter Doctrine following a provocative social media post by President Trump regarding the security of the Persian Gulf. The discussion centers on the 1980 policy that committed the U.S. to using military force to protect the flow of oil, a guarantee that now appears to be evaporating as Trump signals an end to U.S. protection for global energy routes. With the Strait of Hormuz closed for over a month and oil prices soaring toward $200, the episode explores the "Unilateral Taco" scenario where Trump might abruptly end hostilities regardless of whether the waterway is reopened. Brew analyzes Iran's shift from a struggle for survival to a strategic effort to maximize gains and impose tolls, leveraging their functional control over the world's most critical maritime chokepoint. The conversation also breaks down the "hydraulic relationship" between energy prices and political pressure, specifically how Iran uses allies like the Houthis as a lever to keep prices high and force a U.S. de-escalation. Brew examines the precarious position of GCC nations and Israel, who face the risk of their territories becoming permanent "live fire zones" if the U.S. abandons its traditional security role. Finally, the episode questions what a post-war status quo looks like and whether the credibility of U.S. energy guarantees can ever be restored after such a fundamental shift in geopolitical priorities

Why There is No Off-Ramp for Trump’s Gulf War 19.03.2026 57мин

Matt Reed, Vice President at Foreign Reports, joins the Oil Ground Up Podcast to analyze the unprecedented and total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a crisis that has now entered its third week with no clear off-ramp in sight. The conversation explores how a prolonged blockage represents more than a recessionary risk, threatening a "global depressionary event" that could fundamentally break energy markets and trigger double-digit contractions in regional economies. Reed breaks down the strategic impasse, noting that while the Trump administration seeks to degrade Iranian military capacity, Tehran is focused on regime survival by raising the global cost of intervention. The episode details a significant escalation in violence, highlighting recent Iranian strikes that targeted critical refineries in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, as well as the destruction of Qatari LNG facilities. A major point of concern is the vulnerability of the East-West pipeline at Yanbu, demonstrating that even infrastructure designed to bypass the Strait is now within the reach of Iranian drones and missiles. The speakers address the "mystifying" price disconnect between Brent paper markets and the extreme physical scarcity reflected in $170 cash prices for Dubai crude and $200 jet fuel in Asia. In a surprising turn, the discussion touches on potential White House desperation, including rumors of seizing Iranian territory or offering sanctions relief to restore global supply. Finally, Reed concludes that the Strait remains a "shooting gallery" where commercial ships are ineligible for insurance, creating a crisis of lost time that could take years to repair.

View from the Gulf: Nader Itayim on Iran’s "Existential War" and the 8 Million Barrel Shutdown 13.03.2026 1ч 4мин

Nader Itayim of Argus Media joins the Oil Ground Up podcast to analyze the unprecedented escalation of the direct conflict between Iran, Israel, and the United States and its devastating impact on global energy markets. The discussion explores how Iran has transitioned from decades of "proxy warfare" to what leadership now describes as an "existential war," abandoning its traditional "strategic patience" in favor of lashing out to create maximum economic chaos. Itayim details the severe physical disruptions to the market, revealing that nearly 8 million barrels per day have been shut in across Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq. A major focus is placed on the strategic maneuvers of Saudi Aramco, which is "sweating its assets" by utilizing the East-West pipeline to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and export crude through the port of Yanbu. Host Rory Johnston and Nader critique the Trump administration's lack of a clear endgame, highlighting the tension between military goals like "sinking the Navy" and the urgent need to prevent a full-scale global economic depression. The conversation delves provides insight into the fragmented leadership within Tehran, where various power centers like the IRGC may be operating independently to target regional refineries and critical infrastructure. But what does an end game to this conflict look like? Rory and Nader question whether the Gulf can ever return to being a "safe neighborhood" after such a profound display of regional instability.

From Economic to Kinetic Statecraft: Enforcing US Oil Sanctions 27.02.2026 1ч 8мин

In this episode of the Oil Ground Up Podcast, guest Rachel Ziemba joins host Rory Johnston to provide an update on the rapidly shifting landscape of U.S. economic statecraft and its impact on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia. The discussion explores the unprecedented transition in Venezuela, where the U.S. has moved from an aggressive naval blockade to a tightly managed stabilization effort following the extraction of Nicolás Maduro. Regarding Iran, Ziemba examines the massive military buildup in the Middle East and evaluates the possibility of a pragmatic "deal" designed to lower global oil prices. The conversation also breaks down the convoluted sanctions regime against Russia, detailing how recent blocking measures on major firms like Rosneft and Lukoil have significantly curtailed Indian imports. Finally, the episode highlights the challenges of the "shadow fleet" and the geopolitical dance between the U.S. administration and international oil majors to secure global supply chains.

The Outlook for Canadian Oil Production with Josef Schachter 20.02.2026 58мин

In this conversation, Josef Schachter discusses the current state of the oil market, emphasizing the ongoing energy super cycle and the challenges faced by both US and Canadian oil production. He highlights the limitations of OPEC in increasing production and the implications for global oil prices. Schachter also addresses the infrastructure challenges in Canada, the importance of refining margins, and the potential for investment in the sector as foreign companies return. The discussion concludes with an overview of the risks to the bullish outlook for oil prices and the future of the energy sector.

The Ruble Fortress: Why Russia’s Oil Sector Thrives While the West Predicts Collapse 29.01.2026 1ч 7мин

In this episode of the Oil Groundup Podcast, host Rory Johnston welcomes Ronald Smith, a consultant with 25 years of experience analyzing the Russian oil and gas sector. The discussion delves into why Russia’s industry is far more complex than other OPEC+ members due to its vast refining sector and extensive pipeline networks that crisscross continental Asia. Smith explains the geographic evolution of production, highlighting West Siberia as the current "anchor" while exploring the future potential of Arctic and East Siberian greenfields. Listeners will learn about the immense logistical hurdles of operating in the world's largest swamp and the technological shift toward horizontal drilling and multi-stage fracking in deeper, tighter horizons. The conversation also uncovers how Russia’s tax regime and ruble devaluation serve as unique economic buffers, allowing production to remain resilient despite international sanctions and price caps. Finally, Smith provides a forward-looking assessment of Russia’s commitment to OPEC+ and the strategic importance of the massive Vostok Oil project in maintaining future global supply.Ronald's Substack can be found HERE

Venezuela Under Remote Control: The Capture of Maduro and the Future of Global Oil 22.01.2026 1ч 1мин

This episode explores the extraordinary start to 2026 following the capture of Nicolás Maduro by US forces and his subsequent transport to stand trial in New York. Host Rory Johnston is joined, once again, by Francisco Monaldi of Rice University’s Baker Institute to analyze the new "remote control" era of Venezuelan governance. The discussion details the installation of Delcy Rodríguez as interim president and her complex role as a pragmatist navigating the revolution’s survival under intense US pressure. Listeners will gain insights into the immediate market impact of 30 to 50 million barrels of stored oil being rerouted from the Chinese black market to the U.S. Gulf Coast. The conversation also examines the long-term challenges of rebuilding an industry that requires up to $100 billion and a decade of stability to reach its former peak production. Monaldi breaks down the legal and operational shifts necessary for American "wildcatters" and majors like Chevron to safely ramp up activity within the country’s dilapidated infrastructure. Finally, the episode reflects on a "new market order" where geopolitical vibes and discretionary policy decisions increasingly dictate global crude flows.

Inside the High-Stakes World of Wireline and Modern Fracking 19.12.2025 58мин

This episode of the Oil Ground Up podcast features host Rory Johnston in conversation with Andy De La Rosa, a senior field engineer with 15 years of experience in the wireline industry. De La Rosa describes wireline as the "tip of the spear" for the fracking process, utilizing specialized trucks with miles of steel conductive cable to send perforating guns downhole to fracture rock with shaped charges. Beyond the technicalities, the guests examine the wave of industry consolidation and how independent firms like Underdog Wireline survive market downturns.

From Super Major to Super Surplus: Parsing Chaos in the Oil Market with Doug Terreson 12.12.2025 1ч 6мин

The Oil Ground Up podcast welcomes Doug Terreson to parse the dynamics of the chaotic and confusing current oil market. Terreson details his illustrious career path, which included drilling oil wells for Schlumberger, managing one of the world’s largest energy funds on the buy side at Putnam, and managing the global energy group at Morgan Stanley and Evercore for 30 years. He explains how his research note, "The Era of the Super Major" (1998), spurred the industry's most significant consolidation phase since 1911 by forcing companies to pivot from growing production to a value-based model. This focus on value was reinforced by "The Pledge" in 2017, which mandated greater capital discipline, flat spending, and tying intrinsic value metrics to CEO pay. Discussing the present, Terreson analyzes the complex situation where fundamental analysis points to potentially massive inventory builds that have never been seen before. However, he suggests the market must also account for aggressive geopolitical currents, including a potential strategic push from the U.S. and allies that may be defunding three different global conflicts. Finally, Terreson shares his long-term view on the refining sector, recalling his profitable "Golden Age of Refining" call and asserting that utilization rates and margins are poised to rise again due to zero net growth in global refining capacity.

What's at Stake with Venezuela's Oil Industry as US Military Activities Escalate 13.11.2025 1ч 5мин

The Trump Administration has gotten increasingly aggressive in its relations with Nicholas Maduro's government in Venezuela, accumulating a historic volume of US military capability in the Caribbean and cancelling a raft of oil sector operating licenses. Whether or not this leads to outright regime change, it seems like we are on the precipice of something major occurring on Venezuela.What could all of this mean for Venezuela's chronically challenged but stupendously high potential oil industry? To help me explore this question, I'm joined today by Dr Francisco Monaldi, the director of the Latin America Energy Program and the Wallace S Wilson Fellow in Latin American Energy Policy at the Center for Energy Studies at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy. Fransisco has spent decades chronicling and analyzing Venezuela's oil sector and brings a very welcome and encyclopedia body of knowledge to bear in our conversation.

The Future of Canada's Oil Sands: Production, Pipelines and Policy 07.11.2025 1ч 14мин

The Western Canadian oil industry pumps more crude than most OPEC members but its production is located far from consuming markets and depends on a dizzying array of pipelines to connect that supply to end demand. At the same time, Canada's oil producers have had to navigate a quagmire of ever-shifting politics, policy, and regulations—especially concerning greenhouse gas emissions—that were widely seen to be restraining the sectors growth.To help me dig into the meat of this discussion, frame the current position of the massive oil sands industry today and where we're headed, as well as how to parse the ongoing negotiations between Canada's West and Ottawa, Rory is joined this week by Kevin Birn, Global Head, Center of Emissions Excellence and Chief Analyst, Canadian Oil Markets, at S&P Global.