Prediction Market Movers

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• Gaeten Dugas Exposes Spotify Streaming Fraud That Broke Kalshi Markets | Prediction Market Movers 06.07.2026 42мин

  On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with top 100 Kalshi trader Gaeten Dugas to break down how suspicious Spotify streaming activity allegedly manipulated prediction markets, and what the data reveals about coordinated botting campaigns. The conversation explores how fraudulent Spotify streams affected Kalshi Culture Markets, why Ella Langley appeared destined to win before unexpected market shifts, and how traders identified unusual U.S.-only streaming spikes tied to specific artists. They also discuss the broader implications for prediction markets, market integrity, regulation, and the CFTC, including the growing challenge of third-party manipulation, flawed resolution sources, and what exchanges like Kalshi may need to change moving forward. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the Prediction Edge and the 2026 midterms visit www.predictionedge.com 0:00 - Intro 1:30 - Spotify stream market 3:15 - Timeline of issues 24:00 - Kalshi’s resolution 28:05 - Kalshi’s response 30:00 - Spotify’s updated figures 33:30 - How should Kalshi adjust? 36:30 - Cleaning up market resolution 38:45 - 3rd party manipulation #PredictionMarketMovers #PredictionMarkets #Kalshi #Spotify #SpotifyStreams #MarketManipulation #Polymarket #Crypto #StreamingFraud #PredictionNews #Trading #CFTC #MarketIntegrity #MusicIndustry #ElectionMarkets
• SafeBets Wants to Reward Skill, Not Losses | Prediction Market Movers 01.07.2026 38мин

  Welcome back to Prediction Market Movers! In this episode, Chris Gerlacher sits down with Gina Antoniello of SafeBets to discuss a new approach to prediction markets that rewards users for accurate forecasting without requiring them to risk their own money. Gina explains how SafeBets uses Unicoin, an "accuracy economy," and institutional market intelligence to create a different model from traditional sports betting and prediction platforms. The conversation explores how SafeBets identifies top forecasters, monetizes aggregated prediction data instead of user losses, and approaches consumer protection through product design. Chris and Gina also discuss the role of crypto, regulatory challenges, prediction market innovation, sports betting psychology, academic research at NYU, and the future expansion of prediction markets into politics and other categories. Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the Prediction Edge and the 2026 midterms visit www.predictionedge.com 00:00 - Intro 1:15 - How does SafeBets work? 6:30 - Company growth tied to a coin 8:00 - Operating without much regulation 11:00 - Markets insiders and available markets 13:10 - Navigating through an unknown crypto space 19:30 - SafeBets research strategy 22:00 - Utilizing user psychology 24:20 - Response after launching SafeBets 27:45 - Bets outside of sports 30:20 - Are political bets in the future? 31:30 - Sports and politics intersecting   #PredictionMarkets #SafeBets #Crypto #SportsBetting #Web3 #Forecasting #PredictionNews #PredictionMarketMovers #SportsPrediction #Blockchain #CryptoNews #BehavioralEconomics #Unicoin #SportsAnalytics #Fintech
• Inside Professional Prediction Market Trading with Domer | Prediction Market Movers 26.06.2026 51мин

  Prediction market trader Domer joins host Chris Gerlacher on Prediction Market Movers for an in-depth discussion about the evolution of prediction markets, professional trading strategies, political forecasting, and the future of market resolution. Domer shares his experience trading across hundreds of prediction markets, explains how his approach has evolved since the early PredictIt days, and discusses finding an edge as prediction markets become increasingly efficient. The conversation explores political forecasting, reacting to breaking news, information asymmetry, insider activity, and why understanding market rules is just as important as understanding the underlying event. The episode also takes a deep dive into one of the industry's most debated topics: market resolution. Chris and Domer discuss Polymarket's UMA resolution controversies, Kalshi's centralized resolution process, contract interpretation, prediction market governance, and what improvements could help prediction markets continue to mature. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the Prediction Edge and the 2026 midterms visit www.predictionedge.com 00:00 - Intro 1:30 - When the bets get bigger 2:15 - Which markets are for Domer  3:45 - PredictIts model 4:50 - Political trading changes 6:30 Finding an edge 7:30 - Dabbling with new topics and markets 10:00 - Details of a market 11:45 - hasn’t improved 14:00 - Adjusting to the political environment 15:40 - Reading into political movements 20:00 - Signs you’re trading against a pro 22:00 - Pulling back from a market 26:00 - History in unique markets 29:30 - Market resolution 38:00 - non-binary payouts 40:20 - Improving market resolution 43:45 - On Conspectus 47:15 - Future investments #PredictionMarkets #PredictionMarketMovers #PredictionNews #Kalshi #Polymarket #Forecasting #ElectionMarkets #PoliticalForecasting #Trading #SportsPrediction #Crypto #AI #Investing #MarketAnalysis #EventContracts
• Will AI Replace Jobs? Metaculus' Christian Williams Breaks It Down | Prediction Market Movers 17.06.2026 34мин

  In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with Christian Williams of Metaculus to discuss AI forecasting, labor automation, and the future of work. Christian explains how Metaculus differs from traditional prediction market platforms, why reputation-based forecasting can produce valuable insights, and how forecasters approach complex questions involving AI, geopolitics, biosecurity, technological change, and long-term societal trends. The conversation also explores what separates top forecasters from the crowd and how forecasting competitions identify forecasting talent. Chris and Christian take a deep dive into Metaculus' Labor Automation Forecasting Hub, discussing projections for job growth and decline, AI’s impact on occupations, workforce development, unemployment trends, and how policymakers and state governments are beginning to use forecasting tools to prepare for AI-driven economic shifts. The episode also covers AI forecasting competitions, forecasting bots, state-level AI planning, long-term forecasting, and the growing role forecasting platforms may play in helping society navigate the next decade of technological change. 🔔 Subscribe to Prediction News for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.prediction news.com 👍 Like this video and leave a comment: Which profession do you think will be most impacted by AI over the next 10 years?Metaculus features and research: https://www.metaculus.com/midterms-2026/ — live midterms tracker https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/midterms-2026/ — $10k prize pool https://www.metaculus.com/labor-hub/ — AI-and-jobs dashboard https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/labor-hub/ — $35k prize pool https://www.metaculus.com/futureeval/ — AI forecasting benchmark https://www.metaculus.com/futureeval/participate/ — Participate — build-a-bot resources + explainer video: $175k prize pool / yr https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/43357/bot-advice-fall-2025/ (Fall 2025) — what winners did https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/metaculus-cup-summer-2026/ — generalist forecasting, short turnaround, pegged to the news $5k -- Dylan Matthews as current challenger https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/33016/ — $3k+ Save Our Bacon Act and more on animal welfare https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/ — (yearly, now closed) $30k prize pool + recruiting Metaculus Pro Forecasters - https://www.metaculus.com/services/pro-forecasters/ https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/epoch-ai-robotics/ — robotics timelines https://www.metaculus.com/news/ — latest updates https://x.com/metaculus — launches and announcements 00:00 - Intro 1:40 - Why Metaculus? 4:30 - Forecast slider accuracy 6:45 - AI additions 8:40 - AI’s relationship with the next generation 20:45 - What’s next for Metaculus? 24:45 - Lawmakers implementation 25:40 - The future of Robotics and AI 27:00 - Most important questions for Metaculus 30:00 - Credibility of forecasting 31:15 - Limits on AI bots 37:00 - What is scaffolding? #PredictionMarketMovers #ChristianWilliams #Metaculous #AIForecasting #ArtificialIntelligence #FutureOfWork #PredictionMarkets #Forecasting #AIJobs #Automation #Superforecasters #PredictionNews #LaborAutomation #MachineLearning #Economy
• Jan Czarnocki Explains How AI Could Transform Prediction Markets | Prediction Market Movers 10.06.2026 31мин

  In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher sits down with Jan Czarnocki of Elastics AI to explore how artificial intelligence could reshape the future of prediction market trading. Jan explains how Elastics AI is building tools that allow traders to turn market convictions into automated strategies. The conversation dives into the growing intersection of AI, forecasting, and financial markets. Jan discusses the challenges of using large language models in prediction markets, the importance of deterministic execution, and how AI agents can help traders process information, manage positions, and identify opportunities more efficiently. They also discuss prediction market infrastructure, market resolution systems, and the evolving role of automation in trading. Chris and Jan examine where the industry is headed as prediction markets continue to mature. They discuss institutional adoption, the growing demand for market intelligence tools, the role of data in forecasting, and how AI-powered systems may become an essential layer of the prediction market ecosystem. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.predictionnews.com 00:00 - Intro edit read 1:30 - Quants at Goldman Sachs 3:30 - How did this become Elastics Ai 4:45 - Inside Elastics Ai 8:20 - Ai bots hallucinating 12:00 - Why hasn’t Ai caught up to it’s maximum possibility 14:00 - On more specialty markets 16:00 - LLMs becoming the next stage of UI 19:00 - Hardcoding LLMs 20:45 - How will markets evolve? 25:00 - Market Resolution evolution 29:30 - Next steps for Elastic Ai #PredictionMarkets #PredictionMarketMovers #AIAgents #Kalshi #Polymarket #ElasticsAI #Forecasting #QuantTrading #ArtificialIntelligence #Fintech #PredictionNews
• Ed Silva on DraftKings, Political Trading & Prediction Market Data | Prediction Market Movers 09.06.2026 27мин

  Ed Silva joins Prediction Market Movers to discuss his decade at DraftKings, the evolution of sports betting, and how those lessons apply to the rapidly growing prediction market industry. Ed explains the similarities and differences between sports bettors and political traders, liquidity challenges, and why prediction markets still feel like an early-stage industry. The conversation explores prediction market data, election forecasting, user behavior, prediction market infrastructure, and how traders can identify signal in increasingly complex markets. Ed also discusses the challenges of building data products for politics compared to sports, where decades of data already exist. Chris Gerlacher and Ed Silva also break down the future of Prediction Edge, how polling, fundraising, endorsements, and prediction market odds can be combined into actionable insights, and why data-driven election analysis could become one of the most important use cases for prediction markets ahead of the 2026 midterms and beyond. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the Prediction Edge visit www.predictionedge.com 00:00 - Intro 1:30 - Time at DraftKings 2:30 - Being on the founder side 3:30 - Going sports to politics 5:30 - Difference between sports and political trading 7:00 - Square trading in politics 10:50 - Price sensitive sports betters 12:30 - Response to Kalish’s tweets 16:45 - How has data been underutilized in the PM industry? 19:00 - What’s missing in prediction markets? 20:30 - Prediction Edge 22:30 - Features on Prediction Edge 25:50 - Screening out bad data   #PredictionMarkets #PredictionMarketMovers #Kalshi #Polymarket #DraftKings #ElectionForecasting #PoliticalBetting #PredictionEdge #SportsBetting #Trading
• Avi Arora on Oddpool, Institutional Traders & Prediction Market Data | Prediction Market Movers 26.05.2026 29мин

  On this edition of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher sits down with Avi Arora, co-founder of Oddpool, to discuss how institutional traders are approaching prediction markets and what infrastructure is still missing for large-scale adoption. The conversation covers Kalshi, Polymarket, historical tick-level data, market-making, liquidity, institutional flow, prediction market analytics, and how Oddpool is building data tools for traders and hedge funds. Avi explains how he became interested in prediction markets through mention markets, statistical trading strategies, low-latency broadcast signals, and speech-to-text analysis. The episode also dives into how prediction market data can be used for backtesting, quantitative trading, AI forecasting models, and market pricing across platforms. The discussion also explores Y Combinator, startup founder dynamics, fundraising, prediction market regulation, and how companies like Kalshi helped push the industry forward. Avi shares insights into building Oddpool, collecting normalized market data across venues, and why the prediction market data layer could become one of the most valuable segments of the industry over the next several years. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.prediction news.com 00:00 - Intro 1:30 - His start in Prediction Markets 5:15 - Starting Oddpool 6:15 - What is missing in prediction markets? 9:15 - Which contracts should be targeted? 11:20 - Getting into Y Combinator and founder dynamics 14:20 - The benefit of Y Combinator 16:30 - On industry interruptions 20:30 - What does a mature industry look like? 22:30 - Hedging on political events 24:00 - Under appreciated data in prediction markets 27:20 - Next steps for Oddpool #PredictionMarkets #Kalshi #Polymarket #Oddpool #PredictionMarketMovers #QuantTrading #AI #Forecasting #ElectionMarkets #Trading #YCombinator #Finance #InstitutionalTrading #MacroTrading #PredictionNews
• John Phillips on PredictIt’s Future, Political Trading & Forecasting | Prediction Market Movers 21.05.2026 33мин

  Prediction Market Movers welcomes John Phillips, co-founder and CEO of PredictIt, for a deep discussion on the evolution of prediction markets, CFTC regulation, and the future of the industry. Chris Gerlacher and John Phillips break down PredictIt’s legal battles with the CFTC, the DCM/DCO licensing process, and how political forecasting markets differ from traditional polling and sports betting platforms. The episode also highlights why politics has become one of the strongest use cases for prediction markets and why prediction market odds may provide valuable forecasting insights beyond polling data. Phillips also discusses PredictIt’s history operating under a no-action letter, the company’s courtroom victory against the CFTC, the risks of overregulation, and why he believes prediction markets will continue expanding across politics, economics, weather, entertainment, and news media. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.predictionnews.com 00:00 - Intro 3:00 - Utilizing Prediction Markets 4:30 - PredicitIt getting involved in sports 6:30 - “There will be a thousand prediction markets.” 9:15 - Is there a Prediction Market bubble? 11:00 - CFTC value 14:00 - How PMs handle emotionally charged events 17:00 - PredictIt during the pandemic 19:00 - DCM application and path 22:30 - CFTC post-Trump administration 24:40 - “Some regulation is valuable” 26:00 - What needs to adjusted on the industry side 29:30 - Using PM data in the future   #PredictionMarkets #PredictIt #CFTC #Kalshi #Polymarket #ElectionForecasting #PredictionMarketMovers #Politics #Forecasting #ElectionOdds #Trading #Crypto #SportsBetting #PredictionNews #PoliticalForecasting
• Flip Pidot on Political Markets, Bias & Smart Money | Prediction Market Movers 18.05.2026 1ч 7мин

  Prediction Market Movers welcomes the Co-founder and CEO of American Civics Exchange Flip Pidot for a deep dive into prediction market efficiency, emotional trading, political forecasting, and the future of derivatives built on top of prediction markets. Chris Gerlacher and Flip discuss how markets process information, why emotional bias creates persistent mispricing, and what separates accurate forecasting from simple market calibration. Chris and Flip break down insider trading concerns in prediction markets, institutional adoption, settlement controversies, and how regulators may approach the rapidly growing prediction market industry over the next several years. The conversation also covers how smart traders identify irrational pricing in highly emotional political markets. The interview finishes with Flip discussing American Civics Exchange, the first US-based commercial market for political futures.   👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.prediction news.com 00:00 - Intro 1:30 - What makes a market efficient 4:30 - Eliminating friction in the market 7:30 - Emotional bias in the market 12:50 - PredictIt in 2025 17:25 - Duplicate markets and trader limits 20:50 - No action relief/insider trading 34:00 - timeline of investigating insider trading 42:55 - Derivatives layers on prediction markets 53:00 - Market resolution process 59:00 What is American Civics Exchange?
• FutureSearch CEO Dan Schwarz on AI Forecasting & Prediction Markets | Prediction Market Movers 12.05.2026 34мин

  Prediction Market Movers is back with Dan Schwarz, CEO and co-founder of FutureSearch, to break down the future of AI forecasting, prediction markets, and the science behind writing high-quality prediction market questions. Chris Gerlacher and Dan Schwarz discuss how platforms like PolyMarket and Kalshi handle market resolution, why poorly written prediction market questions create controversy, and how traders, policymakers, and institutions all use prediction markets differently. They also explore geopolitical forecasting, AI prediction systems, market liquidity, forecasting probabilities, and the role of prediction markets in understanding events like Iran, Venezuela, Taiwan, pandemics, and AI development. Dan explains how FutureSearch uses AI agents to research forecasting questions, compare probabilities against prediction market odds, and identify potential pricing inefficiencies across markets. The conversation also covers AGI forecasting, forecasting accuracy, and how AI forecasting tools could rival human prediction markets. 00:00 - Intro 1:30 - Curating Prediction Market questions 5:00 - Who to trust with the questions 6:15 - Making a market 8:00 - Specificity of prediction markets and AI 9:30 - What makes an interesting question? 11:00 - Prediction Markets falling short 12:00 - Circulating new questions 14:15 - The importance of market resolving 19:00 - Percentages in markets are dependent on the audience 21:20 - What is Future Search? 23:50 - Future Search features 26:00 - How would a sports bettor look at Future Search? 28:15 - What does a mature PM industry look like in the future? 34:00 - Goodbye #PredictionMarkets #PolyMarket #Kalshi #AI #Forecasting #FutureSearch #ArtificialIntelligence #Crypto #PredictionNews #AGI #Metaculous #ElectionForecasting #Geopolitics #MachineLearning #Trading 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.prediction news.com
• Inside Crypto Prediction Markets with Henry Lau | Prediction Market Movers 22.04.2026 38мин

  Welcome back to Prediction Market Movers. Chris Gerlacher sits down with Skywalk Founder Henry Lau to break down the current state of crypto prediction markets, including what’s changed over the past six months, what’s working, and what hasn’t materialized. This episode dives into the rapid growth and saturation of the prediction market space, where over 150 platforms exist but only a fraction generate meaningful volume. Henry explains why distribution, liquidity, and go-to-market strategy are critical for survival in an increasingly competitive landscape. They also explore the role of KYC requirements in crypto, how friction impacts user onboarding, and the divide between institutional adoption and crypto-native users. The conversation covers how prediction markets are evolving beyond their original vision, including the shift toward sports trading and emerging use cases like MetaDAO and futarchy-driven decision-making. #PredictionMarkets #Crypto #Web3 #PolyMarket #Calshi #Blockchain #DeFi #CryptoTrading #Finance #MarketAnalysis #Investing #Trading #Web3News #CryptoNews #PredictionMarketMovers 00:00 - Intro 1:00 - Saturation in prediction markets? 3:00 - KYC requirements 8:30 - Polymarket token launch 11:15 - On chain liquidity 15:00 - User generated markets 19:45 - Newcomers in the crypto sectors 27:50 - Building avoiding traps 31:45 - Skywalk update 35:45 - Final thoughts   👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.prediction news.com
• Sports Betting vs Prediction Markets w/ Isaac Rose-Berman | Prediction Market Movers 08.04.2026 35мин

  In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher sits down with Isaac Rose-Berman of the American Institute for Boys and Men to break down the real-world impact of sports betting and prediction markets. From beating sportsbooks to market making on exchanges like Kalshi, Isaac shares what actually separates profitable bettors from the rest—and why prediction markets are a completely different game. The conversation dives deep into: The transition from sports betting to market making How prediction market structure impacts profitability The rise of gambling among younger audiences Policy concerns around advertising, iGaming, and regulation The blurred line between investing and gambling Why most traders lose—and what people misunderstand about the industry  👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.prediction news.com   00:00 - Intro 1:00 - Pivoting from sports betting to market making 4:20 - Moving into policy 5:50 - What was missing in sports? 7:15 - Why AIBM? 8:35 - Misconceptions of AIBM 9:35 - Policy priorities at AIBM 11:35 - Confronting Kalshi ads 13:30 - Educating the youth on Prediction Markets 16:30 - The impact of Kalshi losing sports contracts 19:45 - Reception from the youth on PMs and market making 25:00 - What is Finance Land missing? 30:20 - Navigating cannibalism rates 32:00 - Difference in customer base with PMs 34:00 - The importance of keeping sports #PredictionMarkets #SportsBetting #Kalshi #GamblingPolicy #TradingStrategy #Fintech #BettingTips #MarketMaking #PredictionMarketMovers
• Inside Prediction Market Data Engineering & Market Matching w/ Shay Patel | Prediction Market Movers 01.04.2026 22мин

  In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher sits down with Shay Patel to break down how Delphi Markets is building the data infrastructure layer for prediction markets. While most of the industry focuses on exchanges, this conversation dives into what happens behind the scenes — how fragmented APIs, messy data, and cross-exchange inefficiencies are creating opportunities for traders, funds, and institutions. Shay explains how Delphi Markets aggregates and standardizes data across multiple platforms, enabling smarter trading, better forecasting, and entirely new use cases for prediction market data. What You’ll Learn: • How Delphi Markets built a unified API across multiple exchanges • Cross-exchange market matching and resolution risk • Smart order routing to get the best price across platforms • Wallet analytics and detecting suspicious/insider activity • The role of RFQ data and parlay pricing insights • Why AI trading bots are overhyped in prediction markets • The long-term outlook for prediction markets heading into 2028 00:00 - Intro 1:00 - How Shay got involved in Delphi Markets 2:50 - Picking prediction markets 4:15 - On the lack of infrastructure 5:25 - What is Delphi Markets? 6:30- Creating a unified API 7:30 - Resolution risks 8:00 - Explaining market matching and RFQ systems 9:20 - The impact of wallet analytics 10:30 - Detecting suspicious trades 13:30 - Smart order routing 17:00 - Is AI trading good? 18:15 - Prediction Markets depend on 2028 election #PredictionMarkets #DelphiMarkets #DataInfrastructure #EventContracts #PredictionMarketMovers #Polymarket #Kalshi #QuantTrading #MarketData #SportsTrading #AITrading #forecasting 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.prediction news.com
• From Manifold to MNX: Stephen Grugett’s Big Bet on AI Markets | Prediction Market Movers 11.03.2026 25мин

  On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher speaks with Stephen Grugett, founder of MNX and co-founder of Manifold Markets, about the evolution from play-money forecasting platforms to real-money AI-focused derivatives markets. MNX is building infrastructure for trading AI-native markets — including company valuation contracts, benchmark performance markets, and perpetual futures tied to the artificial intelligence economy. In this conversation, Stephen Grugett explains: • Why Manifold originally chose play-money markets over crypto • The limitations of traditional yes/no prediction markets • How AI company valuation markets could function • What perpetual futures (“perps”) are and why they matter • The mechanics behind synthetic derivatives and open interest • Infrastructure decisions, including Ethereum Layer 2 deployment • Regulatory considerations for offshore vs U.S. launch • How MNX differs from platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket   👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.prediction news.com #PredictionMarkets #AI #Crypto #MNX #Manifold #PerpetualFutures #OpenAI #Anthropic #Fintech #Web3 #Derivatives #ArtificialIntelligence #MarketInnovation
• Trading Trump's words, with Tyrael, a mention market trader | Prediction Market Movers 26.02.2026 29мин

  In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher sits down with full-time mention market trader Tyrael, who has found much success in mention market trading — including a very profitable night during the State of the Union address. Tyrael breaks down exactly how he approaches volatile mention markets tied to figures like Donald Trump, JD Vance, Gavin Newsom, and Zohran Mamdani — and why speech-based contracts can be some of the most mispriced markets in the prediction space. Tyrael explains how he combines historical transcript frequency data with real-time geopolitical developments to price words before they’re spoken. He walks through the difference between scripted language and “weave” improvisation, how that affects probabilities, and why certain words like “Sleepy Joe” were clear fades during a formal address. The conversation also dives into: • How he handicaps State of the Union mention markets • The ethics of insider trading in prediction markets • Pre-recorded interview leak risk and adverse selection • “Rule cucks” and controversial resolutions on Kalshi and Polymarket • Why some mention markets (late night shows, TV tapings) may not belong on exchanges at all   Tyrael also shares how he transitioned into trading full-time, lessons from early losses (including a conviction bet on Josh Shapiro as VP), and how he balances high-intensity live event trading with family life. 00:00 - Intro 1:00 - Winning big during the State of the Union 3:00 - Trading on politics 4:30- On mentions markets 7:00 - Why mention markets? 9:30 - How long did it take to become a job? 12:00 - Balancing being a dad and a trader 14:50 - Managing information leaks 17:00 - Insider trading vs. sharp trading 19:50 - Navigating “pump schemes” 24:00 - improvements in market resolutions 27:00 - Which mention markets have value? For more for info on Tyrael, check him out on X - @ØxTyrael #PredictionMarkets #Kalshi #Polymarket #PoliticalTrading #EventContracts #ElectionMarkets #StateOfTheUnion #DonaldTrump #Midterms #CFTC #CryptoPredictionMarkets #PredictionMarketMovers   👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.prediction news.com
• Alex Kane on CFTC Approval, Market Makers, Handle Taxes & Market Needs | Prediction Market Movers 19.02.2026 47мин

  In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Sporttrade CEO Alex Kane explains why the company has officially applied for federal approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to become both a Designated Contract Market (DCM) and a Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO). Instead of operating under 38 different state sports betting laws, Sporttrade wants to move to a single federal framework. Alex explains why the exchange model struggles under state tax structures, and why federal regulation may allow more innovation, better pricing, and stronger liquidity. We also discuss: • The difference between sportsbooks and exchanges • Why algorithmic and corporate trading are restricted in many states • How broker partnerships could expand access • What “high-quality liquidity” really means • How Sporttrade plans to compete with platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket #PredictionMarkets #Sporttrade #CFTC #Kalshi #Polymarket #SportsBetting #DCM #DCO 00:00 - Intro 1:00 - Challenges with regulators 7:00 - On handle taxes 12:00 - What makes Sporttrade different? 15:00 - CFTC and DCM applications vs State license 25:45 - Potential new customers if granted DMC license 28:40 - How are you improving the status quo? 32:00 - Quality of liquidity 37:40 - Benefits of broker partnerships 40:45 - Market needs for traders in the PM industry
• Kalshi Trader Gaeten Dugas on Culture Markets, Politics & Insider Trading | Prediction Market Movers 11.02.2026 26мин

  On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlach is joined by Gaeten Dugas, a top-100 Kalshi trader, for a deep dive into how experienced traders approach culture markets, political prediction markets, and insider trading risk. Gaeten explains why his trading starts with genuine interest, from politics and government shutdowns to music, movies, and pop culture markets like Spotify charts, Rotten Tomatoes, Taylor Swift, and Super Bowl halftime props. He breaks down how prediction markets help remove emotion from political analysis and why “skin in the game” produces better forecasts than traditional punditry. The conversation also tackles one of the biggest issues facing prediction markets today: insider trading and data leaks. Gaeten shares firsthand experiences with suspicious Spotify market movements, explains how traders protect themselves from leaked data, and reacts to Kalshi’s newly announced insider trading safeguards and integrity tools. 00:00 - Intro 1:00 - Getting into culture markets 3:00- Approach to trading 4:00 - Will PM traders get mainstream coverage 6:20 - What markets he is monitoring 9:40 - Requesting markets 10:30 Guarding insider trading 12:40 - Deciphering insider trading 14:00 - Markets he avoids 15:30 - When the price is right 17:00 Feeling secure with markets 20:30 How should Kalshi handle insider trading 21:20 - Using polymarket 22:10 - on Crypto 23:15 - Balancing the markets   #PredictionMarkets #Kalshi #Polymarket #InsiderTrading #CultureMarkets #PoliticalPrediction #ElectionMarkets #PredictionNews #EventContracts #MarketIntegrity #SpotifyCharts #TaylorSwiftMarkets #CFTC #TradingPsychology
• Richard Hanania on Prediction Markets, White Nationalism & the Midterms | Prediction Market Movers 28.01.2026 45мин

  On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher is joined by political commentator and writer Richard Hanania for an in-depth conversation on prediction markets, Republican Party realignment, and the road to the 2026 midterms and 2028 presidential election. Richard shares his personal history with prediction markets, from trading on PredictIt to being a named plaintiff in PredictIt’s lawsuit against the CFTC. The discussion explores why prediction markets remain one of the most powerful tools for forecasting political outcomes, holding commentators accountable, and cutting through media narratives. The conversation then turns to politics, where Richard explains his break from both white nationalist movements and the MAGA coalition, offering a candid analysis of how fringe ideologies have moved closer to the Republican mainstream. Chris and Richard examine the influence of figures like Nick Fuentes, the online far-right, and how these groups could impact Republican turnout and candidate selection in the 2026 midterms.
• Building the Next Generation of Prediction Markets with Gigi Alcaraz | Prediction Market Movers 17.12.2025 28мин

  On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher is joined by Gigi Alcaraz, Founder of Mira, to explore how social-first trading platforms could reshape the future of prediction markets. Gigi breaks down Mira’s vision, why social markets and community-driven trading are becoming essential, and the biggest challenges facing prediction markets today. She also shares her personal journey — from finding her place in the prediction market ecosystem to participating in Kalshi’s builder program. The conversation wraps with a forward-looking discussion on how prediction markets can evolve, the role of consumer brands, and what builders need to get right to unlock mainstream adoption. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.prediction news.com #PredictionMarkets #SocialTrading #Fintech #Kalshi #TradingPlatforms
• Henry Lau on Skywalk's Growth, Market Integrity & Polymarket's Comeback | Prediction Market Movers 03.12.2025 38мин

  On this week’s edition of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with Henry Lau, Founder of Skywalk, for an in-depth discussion on the rapidly evolving prediction market industry. Chris and Henry break down Skywalk’s mission, their strategy for scaling the platform, and how builders can thrive amid shifting regulations and increasing competition. The conversation then shifts to Polymarket’s U.S. comeback, what the relaunch means for the market, and if Polymarket can compete against Kalshi. To close out the episode, the two explore market integrity, emerging challenges for entrepreneurs in the space, and the broader future of prediction markets as crypto-native and regulated platforms converge. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.prediction news.com