The Dairy Cafe

Эпизоды

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  Sep. 10, 2026 - Milk and milk powders - how tight is Q4 really? 11.09.2026 30мин

  In New Zealand, whole milk powder is now cheaper than skim milk powder, for the first time in almost four and a half years. Buy the protein and the fat comes free.Vesper's dairy analyst Jasper Endlich is joined by Feiko Keilholz and Sebastiaan Laurenceau to work through milk and milk powders, the product group that has caught people out this year. Skim milk powder was near EUR 2,000 per metric ton in January and is above EUR 3,000 now, up between 35% and 60% on the year, and the supply side does not obviously justify it. US non-fat dry milk production was up 26.56% year on year in July, but against two poor years, and milk powder output is in structural decline over a longer period.Demand is doing most of the work. China holds relatively low skim stocks for this time of year and has been buying significantly more than usual, which also showed up at the recent GDT events. Europe and New Zealand have picked up the export volume the US no longer has. And buyers who only need protein have switched out of feed-quality whey concentrate into skim, because WPC80 at EUR 27,000 per metric ton and MPC closing on EUR 15,000 per metric ton are too expensive by comparison. The group also reads the backwardated futures curve, which says the market does not expect this to stay as tight as it is today.This episode is part of our biweekly webinar series. Want timely market intelligence and the opportunity to ask questions live?Register for free and watch more webinars at vespertool.com/webinars.
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  Aug. 27, 2026 - What’s next for dairy proteins? WPC, MPC, and SMP/NFDM 31.08.2026 30мин

  Western Europe's WPC80 benchmark barely moved this week, but underneath it lower priced offers out of the US and Eastern Europe are working into Western Europe and Asia.Vesper's dairy analyst Jasper Endlich is joined by Feiko Keilholz and Sebastiaan Laurenceau to work through the whole board. Butter stays weak on global oversupply and record US production. European SMP has passed 3,000 EUR per metric ton, pulled by a shortage in the US, tighter skim milk concentrate in Europe, and demand returning from China and Southeast Asia.On proteins, reformulation has moved from theory to the label. MPC85 has a very similar protein structure at close to half the WPC80 price, and blends that used to read "whey protein" increasingly read "whey and milk protein". The group also asks whether GLP-1 adoption beyond the US keeps protein demand structurally higher, and what the new Canada and US tariffs mean for protein and butterfat.This episode is part of our biweekly webinar series. Want timely market intelligence and the opportunity to ask questions live?Register for free and watch more webinars at vespertool.com/webinars.
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  Aug. 13, 2026 – The milk fundamentals: What the EU, US & New Zealand are telling us 13.08.2026 31мин

  In this Vesper Dairy Cafe episode, the hosts review dairy market moves and then focus on fundamentals shaping milk supply across Europe, the US, and New Zealand. They note midsummer volatility driven by weather, with tight liquid markets pushing skim milk powder (SMP) higher amid strong Asian demand and strong absorption of New Zealand GDT volumes, while butter continues trending down due to heavy stocks and only moderate demand; cheese is mostly sideways. Whey prices have stabilized but with a wide range, and the team expects September Q4 negotiations to clarify direction; sweet whey is supported by limited liquid whey/concentrate availability and cost floors. In Europe, milk prices remain above break-even and cow numbers are broadly stable, suggesting H2 output may land near 2025 levels once heat effects fade. In the US, healthy margins, rapidly rising herd size, and increasing milkfat underpin continued production growth. New Zealand’s outlook is supported by healthy Fonterra pricing and currently average pasture conditions, with limited expected El Niño impact so far.
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  Jul. 30, 2026 - Reading the cheese market: Weather, whey and the tools to track it 30.07.2026 32мин

  The hosts explain doing two Dairy Cafe sessions in a row due to holiday scheduling and introduce a revamped “home feed” that consolidates key market prices (e.g., Gouda), reports, forecasts, and bull/bear drivers with links to sources. They note global skim milk powder prices across Oceania, Europe, and the US have converged, increasing competition. The discussion focuses on cheese: after mid-June softness, European heat waves reduced milk output, made sellers hesitant to sell forward, and helped lift mozzarella, Gouda, and cheddar prices. They argue cheese has become the preferred milk outlet because cheese-plus-whey (even sweet whey powder, potentially more with WPC) materially improves milk valorization versus SMP/butter, driving capacity expansions in Europe and the US. However, production growth outpaces consumption, intensifying export competition (especially cheddar and mozzarella) and making FX (EUR/USD) more influential. They expect fewer US dairy products flowing into Europe due to tighter US supply, discuss UK milk surplus pressuring cheddar premiums, and flag unexplained exchange whey powder index weakness; they plan to add WPC80 and MPC streams to their valorization model.
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  Jul 23, 2026 - Heat, holidays and H2: reading the dairy market 23.07.2026 30мин

  In this Dairy Cafe webinar, the hosts discuss how European heat waves reduced milk output temporarily, pushing spot milk above FrieslandCampina’s payout price and driving higher prices and volatility in butter, cream, skim milk concentrate, and cheese, with large spreads between fresh and frozen butter and low futures liquidity. French weekly milk output data is cited as showing rapid recovery after weather events, though several weeks of lost milk adds upward risk versus earlier expectations. Cheese, including mozzarella, rose sharply as sellers became reluctant to offer forward volumes. Whey protein prices have surged but recently flattened as buyers reformulate toward alternatives like milk protein concentrate/caseins; MPC itself is tightening. They also note possible 50% US tariffs on Canadian goods and examine US-Canada dairy trade flows, highlighting potential risk to protein imports if dairy is included, and they mention dashboard customization updates.
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  Jul 2, 2026 - WPC80/WPI Pricing, Demand Shifts, MPC Substitution & Supply Outlook 02.07.2026 34мин

  Dairy Cafe: Protein Markets Update — WPC80/WPI Pricing, Demand Shifts, MPC Substitution & Supply Outlook (with Joshua White)In this episode of Vesper’s Dairy Cafe, the hosts are joined by Josh White to discuss dairy protein markets, focusing on WPC80 and WPI pricing, recent signs of more offers, and whether buyer activity is slowing due to seasonality, inventory coverage, or price resistance. They cover the US heat wave’s likely temporary impact on milk production, the unusually wide price ranges across suppliers, and the compressed spread between WPI and WPC80. The conversation addresses whether rising commodity costs are being passed to consumers, continued demand growth across grocery aisles beyond sports nutrition, and how GLP-1 acts as a catalyst within a broader global health trend. They also discuss increased interest in MPCs as substitutes, hedging advantages in milk proteins, limited near-term supply expansion tied to cheese capacity, and potential drivers of any price correction.
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  Jun 17, 2026 - A two-week dairy market heading into summer 17.06.2026 29мин

  The dairy market is moving at two speeds right now, and the next Dairy Cafe is a chance to step back and read the whole board.On one side, butter, milk powders and most cheese have drifted lower through late spring. On the other side, the whey protein complex keeps setting record highs.So which way does the second half of the year break? Sebastiaan Laurenceau and Feiko Keilholz will walk through where butter, cheese, SMP, WMP and the protein complex actually stand, what is driving the split, and the questions worth watching as the market heads into its summer lull.In one session you will get:• A clear read on each dairy category, from milkfat to whey proteins• What sits behind the softer commodity tone and the still-tight protein market• The signals to watch for where prices go from here
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  Jun 4, 2026 - dairy market outlook: plenty moving beneath a quiet surface 04.06.2026 30мин

  In this market update, the hosts discuss a more bearish tone emerging from the Eucolait conference, with noted weakness in European butter and milk powder. They review skim milk powder/nonfat dynamics, highlighting that US prices fell from just under $5,000/ton to about $4,600/ton but remain over $1,000/ton above other origins; a CME nonfat bounce is attributed to short-covering and ongoing supply concerns including product recalls and screw worm findings in Texas. European butter is described as heavy with ample production and rising stocks, forward curves weakening (e.g., October futures falling from about €4.56 to €4.30), and warehouses reported full; spot trades around €3.75–€3.78 are mentioned, with €3,500/ton possible longer term. Whey remains extremely tight with very high prices, while mozzarella in both EU and US is increasingly export-dependent and price-sensitive. MPC demand rises via reformulation amid higher protein prices.
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  May 21, 2026 - Why butter & cheese are bending while proteins hold the line 21.05.2026 30мин

  In this episode, Jasper and hosts discuss recent dairy market movements, focusing on butter, cheese, skim/non-fat, whey, and milk proteins. They highlight a major “protein boom” expanding from whey proteins into milk proteins (MPC 85), with April prices up about 25–30% month over month and Q2 MPC supply essentially sold out, driven by limited market size, substitution from higher-priced whey proteins, and US pricing multipliers tied to non-fat dry milk. US non-fat dry milk peaked near $2.30/lb in early May before easing, with imports expected to reduce tightness. They address how high US skim values can push more milk into Class IV, increasing butter output and pressuring butter prices. Production updates show mixed European milk intake (France down vs. 2025 but above 2024; Germany strong) and New Zealand milk solids up ~6.9% in April, signaling continued surplus. They explain butter/cheese are less export-dependent than SMP/non-fat, but rising US exports help manage surplus and support prices.
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  April 16, 2026 - Reading the dairy market as flush season takes hold 16.04.2026 31мин

  In this biweekly dairy update, hosts review global dairy fundamentals and market behavior. They note abundant milk supply worldwide, with January 2026 showing a 4.29% global milk surplus year over year, keeping fundamentals weak even as proteins are volatile. In Europe, France’s surplus is shrinking but still positive, Germany remains about 6.5% higher, and high milk prices (~40 cents, higher in the Netherlands) support continued production; Dutch butter appears weaker due to full storage and spot selling pressure, while Germany/France can store more. A wide Dutch spot-versus-farmgate milk price spread is driven by excess spot milk and limited processing capacity. In the US, record milk output contrasts with record-high non-fat dry milk prices (about $5,000/ton), improving butter/powder valorization and creating arbitrage incentives versus EU SMP. New Zealand also remains in surplus, with milk price and pasture growth/weather as key watchpoints. The team attributes “on edge” sentiment to extreme price volatility and thin supply-demand balance, and notes limited but growing forward activity in European WPC 80.
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  Mar. 19, 2026 - What’s really driving the US dairy squeeze? 19.03.2026 32мин

  In this Dairy Cafè Vesper biweekly update, the hosts review global dairy markets and a U.S. deep dive, focusing on butter, skim/nonfat powder, cheese, and whey. European butter prices fell sharply from around 4.7 to as low as 4.3, driven by fewer buyers, ample stock perception, and volatility dominated by trader volume as many buyers are covered for Q2–Q3 and looking to Q4–Q1. U.S. butter softened after a CME specification switch to fresher product, while Oceania butter was supported by GDT strength and a “safe haven” premium. Skim/nonfat powder is rising globally, led by a U.S. shortage and New Zealand demand, while Europe benefits from being cheapest and from supportive exchange rates. European whey prices jumped on strong demand for high-protein WPC80, limited whey availability tied to cheese output, and risk-driven forward buying, with limited substitution to MPC due to functionality.
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  Feb. 20, 2026 - An update on the global dairy market 20.02.2026 31мин

  In a biweekly dairy markets update, speakers discuss unusually high volatility early in January, led by a sharp rally in skim/nonfat dry milk prices (above $3,000/ton; futures rising from about 118 to 158 cents/lb), which also lifted other products like European butter largely through sentiment rather than fundamentals. They attribute the move mainly to a late-2025 slowdown in US milk powder production (down nearly 30% in Q4) as milk shifted to fresh packaging, milk proteins, and more profitable streams like cheese, plus some factory downtime, low liquidity, and short-covering alongside physical buying with thin procurement pipelines. They note overall US milk production is up (about 19.5 billion lbs, +3.6%), expecting some nonfat/butter production recovery, and suggest nonfat prices may ease toward just under $3,000/ton. They also highlight whey protein prices hitting extreme levels (Europe ~€16,000–17,000/ton; US ~$8.75/lb) amid persistent shortages, limited near-term capacity additions, some demand switching to milk proteins, and discussion of plant-based alternatives and future investments.
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  Jan. 22, 2026 - Global dairy market update and new platform release 22.01.2026 30мин

  In the first 2026 episode after a four-week break, the hosts review dairy markets: milk remains abundant in Europe and the US, keeping milk fats weak as European butter prices fall below 4,000 and cream becomes extremely cheap, encouraging butter production and cold storage buildup that could cap price rebounds. Milk output has been exceptionally strong (including notable H2 2025 growth), likely staying positive early 2026 before potential contraction later as milk prices drop. Whey proteins (WPC 80 and WPI) reach very high levels due to severe tightness and limited near-term availability, with US pricing pulling Europe higher amid strong protein demand. Cheese markets are comparatively soft and slow seasonally, while skim milk powder rises from below 2,000 to about 2,130 in Europe, driven by global factors (including Oceania/GDT strength and tenders) rather than European fundamentals. They also introduce Vesper’s new data-sourced “Copilot” AI feature and tease an upcoming “bring your own data” tool.
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  Dec .9, 2025 - 1-hour dairy market recap 2025 & Q1 2026 outlook 09.12.2025 58мин

  The final recap of major dairy market movements and looks ahead to 2026, led by analyst Jasper and marketplace head Seb. Butter/milk fat is described as the weakest complex, falling from about €7,500/ton early in the year to near €4,000 with potential to trade around €3,5–3,9k in Q1, driven by strong milk output, seasonal stock building into May, and buyers stepping back after covering needs; oversupply also makes EU/US butter prices move more in line via export competition. In contrast, whey proteins (WPC80/WPI) hit record or near-record highs on demand growth from mainstream food uses, limited substitutability, and slow capacity expansion. Cheese (mozzarella) and milk powders face oversupply and global competition, while SMP exports strengthen in Southeast Asia despite muted prices. A key 2026 uncertainty is when milk margins fall enough to curb production; the team previews an upcoming AI “commodity copilot” based on their data.
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  Nov. 13, 2025 - Is the U.S. Dairy Export Strategy Working? 13.11.2025 30мин

  In this episode, Jasper review busy dairy markets after the U.S. government shutdown ends and data resumes, noting Seb is traveling in France. European butter prices drop further amid heavy cream and ample milkfat, while European powders jump mainly due to exchange-rate shifts that reopen export opportunities despite oversupply. European cheese prices recover on stronger exports, with cheddar pressured by U.S. competition; buttermilk powder remains historically low. They highlight a sharp late-season milk intake surge across Europe (e.g., +6.5% YoY overall, +4.9% Germany, +4% France) and strong U.S. milk production growth (~4% YoY in September) alongside rising herd size and low slaughter. U.S. butter’s large discount drives strong exports to both typical and atypical destinations; tariff calculations show Europe’s import window has recently closed. Cheese price parity has helped Europe win exports (even to Mexico), potentially shifting pressure back to the U.S. Finally, they introduce a platform upgrade from monthly to weekly 52-week forecasts, which suggests markets stay weighed down until around next year’s Q2 flush before improving.
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  Oct. 2, 2025 - Where is the dairy market heading in Q4? 02.10.2025 31мин

  Join dairy experts Jasper Endlich and Feiko Keilholz as they return from the Oakley Conference to unpack key dairy market trends. From record US butter exports and European price slumps to a surging global milk supply and the cheese market's pivotal role, this episode dives deep into the numbers, shifts, and signals shaping the industry. Includes updates on SMP, Oceania milk flow, retail dynamics, and China's surprising stock movements.*This video is part of our bi-weekly webinar series. Want the full picture with live charts and data? Sign up free at ⁠vespertool.com/webinars⁠.
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  Sept. 18, 2025 - Dairy markets in free fall: Strategic insights for volatile times 18.09.2025 30мин

  European butter have slipped below the €6,000/mt mark, while SMP prices are falling worldwide, and this may only be the beginning...In this Dairy Café we dive into these rapid price declines with our hosts Jasper Endlich, Sebastiaan Laurenceau and Feiko Keilholz. They'll break down the forces behind this shift and what procurement teams should expect next.Perhaps the timing for budget planning and contract negotiations?*This podcast is part of our bi-weekly webinar series. Want the full picture with live charts and data? Sign up free at ⁠vespertool.com/webinars⁠
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  Sept. 4, 2025 - Decoding the fundamentals behind the butter price dip 04.09.2025 28мин

  Butter prices are sliding, down €1,000/mt in less than a month.What’s fueling the drop? In this Dairy Café, our analysts will explain the drivers behind the market shift, including:↳ Fundamentals behind the sharp decline↳ Futures vs. spot market dynamics↳ Real-time trading patterns from our marketplace↳ Technical signals to watch↳ Forward outlook *This podcast is part of our bi-weekly webinar series. Want the full picture with live charts and data? Sign up free at ⁠vespertool.com/webinars⁠
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  Aug. 21, 2025 - Mid-summer dairy update: all categories explained 22.08.2025 29мин

  In this week’s episode of the Dairy Café, market experts Jasper Endlich, Feiko Keilholz, and Sebastiaan Laurenceau unpack the mid-summer shifts shaping your Q4 procurement strategy and which side of the market is likely to move first.New Zealand’s milk season is gaining pace, boosting global supply. In Europe, sellers are holding off until buyers return from holiday, while buyers wait for sellers to cut prices.It’s a familiar summer standoff that’s already influencing dairy markets:- Butter futures are sliding, with physical markets still catching up.- Cheese is hitting its seasonal summer lull, even as milk production stays strong.- Whey proteins are quietly tightening ahead of the expected Q4 squeeze.*This podcast is part of our bi-weekly webinar series. Want the full picture with live charts and data? Sign up free at ⁠vespertool.com/webinars⁠
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  Aug. 6, 2025 - Global dairy price update & NZ’s upcoming milk season 06.08.2025 29мин

  Our latest dairy analysis shows dairy buyers struggling with:𝗘𝘅𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝘃𝗼𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆: EUR/USD shifts moved European SMP prices €35/mt overnight𝗥𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗴𝗮𝗽𝘀: WPC80 at €12,100/mt in Europe vs €9,341/mt in the US𝗤𝟰 𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘁𝘆: Balancing current conditions with seasonal tightness expectations𝗠𝗶𝘅𝗲𝗱 𝗳𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗮𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗹𝘀: Higher milk production but lower butter stocksIn this episode of The Dairy Café, Vesper’s dairy experts Jasper Endlich, Sebastiaan Laurenceau, and Feiko Keilholz provide the market insights you need to navigate these challenges, covering global pricing trends and the upcoming NZ milk season.*This podcast is part of our bi-weekly webinar series. Want the full picture with live charts and data? Sign up free at ⁠vespertool.com/webinars⁠