Pivotal States

Epizode

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  Can America Avoid a Forever War with Iran? 03.08.2026 59min

  Trump entered office promising a historic breakthrough with Iran. Instead, the United States finds itself in a costly war with no clear path to peace. Why has Washington repeatedly failed to move from confrontation to diplomacy? And what does the current conflict mean for America's strategy in the Middle East? Christopher Chivvis is joined by Robert Malley of Yale University's Jackson School and Carnegie's Stephen Wertheim to examine why diplomacy has repeatedly broken down, what is driving the war today, and what a more sustainable U.S. approach to Iran might look like.
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  Is America Ready to Reset Ties with Israel? 08.07.2026 1h 3min

  The growing gap between American and Israeli interests is becoming harder than ever to ignore. Is this a turning point in the U.S.-Israel relationship? If so, what changes are actually possible? What leverage does Washington have over Israel, and why has it been so reluctant to use it? Christopher Chivvis is joined by Matt Duss of the Center for International Policy and Aaron David Miller of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace to discuss whether America is ready to reset its relationship with Israel, and what that reset might look like.
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  Is America's North Korea Policy Out of Touch with Reality? 30.06.2026 58min

  Christopher Chivvis speaks to Dr. Victor Cha, one of the world's leading experts on North Korea, to examine how America became trapped in a failing strategy and what a more realistic U.S. policy might look like.
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  Do U.S.-German Relations Have a Future? 13.05.2026 51min

  Christopher Chivvis speaks with Sophia Besch, Senior Fellow in the Europe Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
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  Should Americans Fear China's Dominance? 09.04.2026 54min

  In Washington, policymakers frame competition with China as a zero-sum contest for power. But does slowing China’s progress actually benefit Americans—or is it a fool’s errand? In this episode of Pivotal States, Christopher S. Chivvis speaks with Jessica Chen Weiss, the David M. Lampton Professor of China Studies at Johns Hopkins SAIS and author of the forthcoming book, What China Wants: And What it Means for the World. They discuss what might a more stable future for U.S.-China relations look like, and what would it take to achieve it.
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  What Does the United States Want From Cuba? 20.03.2026 1h 2min

  For more than sixty years, Cuba’s revolutionary government has survived economic crises and sustained pressure from the United States. But today, the island may be facing its most severe test yet. Daily life is grinding to a halt, under intense economic pressure from the Trump administration. But what does the United States actually want from Cuba? What do past U.S. policies toward Cuba tell us about America's options for getting the change it seeks? To explore these questions, Christopher Chivvis speaks with Michael J. Bustamante, Associate Professor of History and the Emilio Bacardí Moreau Chair in Cuban and Cuban-American Studies at the University of Miami.
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  Spheres of Influence or American Primacy? The World Trump is Making 13.02.2026 1h 13min

  Analysts of foreign affairs are offering competing explanations for Trump’s foreign policy whirlwind. Over the past year, he’s rattled the world with tariffs, negotiated a ceasefire in Gaza, conducted strikes in the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America, and even issued threats of conquering an ally’s territory. Whether one views this record as beneficial or damaging to American interests, one thing seems clear: Trump has unleashed American power on the world stage, creating extraordinary uncertainty for the future world order. So, how is Trump's foreign policy shaping the world? To find the signal in the noise, Chris Chivvis speaks with Stephen Wertheim, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
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  Does Trump Understand America's Real Interests in Venezuela? 13.01.2026 1h 9min

  President Trump campaigned on peace, yet he has expanded U.S. military presence in the Caribbean to its largest since the Cold War. Days into 2026, he had Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro captured, claiming the United States will “run the country”. What are U.S. interests in Venezuela? Christopher S. Chivvis sits down with Oliver Stuenkel to examine the regional and global consequences of Trump's actions, and what comes next.
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  Inside America's Stubborn Rivalry with Iran 17.12.2025 55min

  Dalia Dassa Kaye joins Christopher S. Chivvis on the latest episode of Pivotal States to discuss the United States' ongoing rivalry with Iran and the factors preventing a reset in the relationship.
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  Peril and Promise in the U.S.–China AI Race 21.11.2025 1h 19min

  The race to stay on the cutting edge of AI is becoming central to America’s strategic competition with China, raising questions about whether the U.S. has the right strategy and how real the risks truly are. In this episode of Pivotal States, Christopher S. Chivvis speaks with Colin H. Kahl to unpack both the promise and the peril of U.S.–China competition in AI.
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  Hard Limits: Testing U.S. Power in Ukraine 03.10.2025 51min

  To assess the dilemmas inherent in America’s policy toward Ukraine, Chris Chivvis speaks with Thomas Wright, a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution and former Senior Director for Strategic Planning at the National Security Council during the Biden administration.
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  Would an Asian NATO Be Good for America? 31.07.2025 1h 3min

  Should the U.S. push for a formal defense pact in the Pacific? Advocates say a new alliance would bring stability and peace, while critics argue it would escalate tensions with China. In this episode of Pivotal States, Christopher S. Chivvis speaks with Dr. Ely Ratner of the Marathon Initiative to unpack the risks and benefits. Dr. Ely Ratner, who served as Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs for the Biden administration, lays out his vision in a recent Foreign Affairs essay, “The Case for a Pacific Defense Pact.”
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  Trump 2 at 6 Months: Fury and Furor, But What’s Changed? 22.07.2025 43min

  Six months into his second term, is Trump altering the trajectory of American global power or ultimately delivering more of the same? Join Christopher S. Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim, from the Carnegie Endowment’s American Statecraft Program, as they unpack Trump’s second-term record thus far and discuss Stephen’s new essay in the New York Times, “Trump Wants to Put America First. He Has No Idea How.”
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  America and Iran: Is a New Chapter Possible? 10.06.2025 58min

  Few relationships are as fraught, and as consequential, as America and Iran’s. With the Trump now in nuclear talks with Iran, the question looms: Could this be a Nixon-to-China moment? What would a deal mean for the region? What benefits could it bring, and what’s at stake? Join Christopher S. Chivvis and Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director at the International Crisis Group, as they break down the strategic choices in U.S.-Iran relations.
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  How Pivotal is the United Kingdom? The Future of U.S.-UK Relations 05.05.2025 52min

  America’s relationship with the United Kingdom is one of the deepest in the world, but in the face of changing interests and new geopolitical pressures, how important will the UK be to the future of American statecraft? In this episode of Pivotal States, Christopher S. Chivvis explores the U.S.-UK relationship with Jeremy Shapiro, Research Director of the European Council on Foreign Relations.
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  How is Taiwan Reacting to the Trump Administration? Four Experts Visited Taiwan to Find Out 09.04.2025 58min

  As the United States overhauls its foreign policy approach, Taiwan is on high alert. In this episode of Pivotal States, Christopher S. Chivvis, Stephen Wertheim, Brett Rosenberg, and Matthew Duss share their takeaways from their recent trip to Taipei and delve into the United States' policy challenge in Taiwan.
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  Food Security Reimagined | Barbecue Earth 12.03.2024 23min

  Winners and losers—every major transition has them. For the world to meet its climate goals, it needs to undergo a partial shift away from traditional meat and toward alternative proteins. But who would be the winners and losers of a global protein transition? In Episode 6, we investigate what this transition might look like and what it could mean for national security and geopolitics.
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  Consider the Lobster | Barbecue Earth 05.03.2024 28min

  There’s a lot to learn from the lobster. Its transformation from disdained prison food to fine-dining delicacy reveals how culture shapes our palate and how people could start to get a taste for food that does less damage to the planet than a bacon cheeseburger. In Episode 5, we look to the future of alternative proteins—from bean burgers to lab-grown nuggets—and ask what it would look like to live in a world less centered on traditional meat production.
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  Uncle Sam and the Magic Beanstalk | Barbecue Earth 27.02.2024 29min

  The soybean is more than just a humble legume—it’s a major geopolitical player that feeds the international meat market, shapes trade wars, and transforms economies. In Episode 4, we tell the story of how the soybeans that feed pigs around the world have shaped the geopolitical behavior of what some call “the Meat Triangle”: the United States, Brazil, and China.
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  How to Launder a Cow | Barbecue Earth 20.02.2024 26min

  You’ve probably heard of money laundering. But while some choose to launder dirty cash, others launder cows. Episode 3 tells the story of one Brazilian company’s entanglement with the smuggling and selling of illegal cattle throughout the Amazon—and explores how big meat companies around the world use their power to undermine climate goals.