Brussels Sprouts

Episodet

• Prospects for Ukraine and a Look Ahead to Ankara 26.06.2026 50min

  The past month has featured a series of major transatlantic gatherings that together tell an important story about where the alliance is headed. At the NATO Foreign Ministers meeting in Sweden, allies focused on strengthening Europe's role within NATO through higher defense spending, expanded defense industrial production, and continued support for Ukraine. But the meeting also underscored growing uncertainty about America’s long-term role in European security following the announcement of a U.S. review of its military posture in Europe, a move that reinforced allies’ concerns that the future of the U.S. military presence on the continent will shrink.  The G7 summit in France offered a more optimistic note. Leaders pledged additional military support for Ukraine, including air defense and long-range capabilities. And many came away encouraged that President Trump appeared to be taking a tougher line toward Vladimir Putin. But we've seen this movie before. Trump has repeatedly shifted between promises of greater pressure on Russia and renewed optimism about engaging Putin, making it far too early to conclude that a lasting change in U.S. policy is underway.  That brings us to the NATO summit in Ankara on July 7th and 8th, where those competing trends will be put to the test. Expectations are pretty modest. Allies will be looking for reassurances about America’s long-term commitment to Europe, greater clarity on the U.S. posture review, and evidence that recent optimism on Ukraine is warranted. At the same time, leaders will be trying to maintain alliance unity while advancing Europe’s growing role in its own defense.   To connect all these dots and look forward, we're very happy to have Benedetta Berti and Kurt Volker back on Brussels Sprouts.  Benedetta Berti is the Secretary General of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly.  Ambassador Kurt Volker is the Advisory Board Co-Chair for BGR Group and former U.S. Ambassador to NATO and U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations. 
• Getting the Brits Ready to Fight 22.06.2026 56min

  On June 22, United Kingdom (UK) prime minister Keir Starmer announced that he would resign as leader of the Labour Party and leave the premiership. Starmer had faced mounting pressure to hand the position over to a new leader after local elections in May that were disastrous for the party, but the decision came after Labour’s Andy Burnham, popular mayor of Greater Manchester, won a special election for a seat in parliament and signaled on June 19 that he would use it to challenge Starmer for leadership of the country.All of this comes after both the UK’s defence minister, John Healey, and armed forces minister, Al Carns, announced on June 11 that they had resigned from their positions. Both former ministers cited funding for the military as the reason for their departures. Healey issued a letter warning that the level of military spending proposed by Starmer “falls well short” of what is needed. Carns stated that the government’s defense investment plan was “neither transformative enough nor sufficiently funded.” The plan, which lays out the funding for military equipment and services, has faced months of delays amid budget disputes within the government. Earlier this month, Chief of the Defence Staff Richard Knighton also said that the UK is running out of time to boost defenses in response to Russian threats, and that risks to the country are greater than at any time since the Cold War.The UK’s struggles highlight two questions that Europe has yet to answer:  Can governments generate the political support needed for significantly higher defense spending? And with the United States playing a smaller role, who will provide the leadership needed to organize and drive Europe’s security efforts?To discuss all of this and more, we are excited to welcome back to Brussels Sprouts Shashank Joshi and Tom Wright. Please note that this episode was recorded on Friday, June 19, before Starmer’s official resignation but when it was clear that he would be challenged. Shashank Joshi is the incoming Washington bureau chief at The Economist and was previously the publication’s defense editor. Tom Wright is a senior fellow with the Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy and Technology at the Brookings Institution. 
• Brussels Sprouts Live: Four Ambassadors Reimagine the Transatlantic Relationship 17.06.2026 25min

  Today's episode comes from the CNAS Annual Conference held last week in Washington, D.C. The theme of this year's conference was “New Rules,” and nowhere is that more evident than in the transatlantic relationship. As Europe takes on greater responsibility for its own security and Washington reassesses its role on the continent, both sides are grappling with fundamental questions. What should the next chapter of the transatlantic partnership look like? What principles, expectations, and responsibilities will define the relationship going forward? Those questions were at the heart of a conversation Andrea Kendall-Taylor moderated on reimagining the transatlantic relationship. Joining her were four distinguished ambassadors: Ambassador Laurent Bili of France, the European Union’s Ambassador Jovita Neliupšienė, Denmark's Ambassador Jesper Møller Sørensen, and Swedish Ambassador Urban Ahlin. We hope you enjoy the discussion. This episode was recorded on June 11th, 2026.
• U.S. Posture Changes and the Future of European Defense Planning 05.06.2026 50min

  Over the last several weeks, European allies have been trying to interpret a steady stream of signals from Washington about the future of the U.S. military role in Europe, discussions we've covered on the last two episodes of Brussels Sprouts. Beyond the headlines about troop levels, the broader concern is that the United States may be preparing to scale back some of the critical capabilities that have long formed the backbone of NATO’s deterrence posture, including the forces and enablers needed to rapidly reinforce Europe in a crisis. The uncertainty has exposed deeper questions about how decisions on U.S. force posture are made, how allies should prepare for a potentially smaller American role, and whether Europe is moving fast enough to adapt to a more demanding security environment. These debates are particularly acute in Germany, where questions about deterrence, defense spending, and Europe’s long-term security architecture are increasingly central to the political conversation.To help us dig into these issues and what they all mean for the future of transatlantic security, we’re very happy to welcome Mara Karlin and Liana Fix to this week’s edition of Brussels Sprouts.Liana Fix is a senior fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations.Mara Karlin is a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution and a professor of practice at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies. 
• Window of Opportunity? Deterrence and Moscow’s Calculus 29.05.2026 54min

  In the last episode of Brussels Sprouts, we looked at the dizzying series of U.S. announcements about America’s military posture in Europe. Since then, new reporting has emerged. The Wall Street Journal reports that the Pentagon is preparing allies for a much larger reduction in the U.S. forces earmarked to reinforce Europe in a crisis—including reductions in bombers, naval assets, and refueling tinkers. In other words, this is not just about troop numbers on the continent today. It’s about whether the United States will still provide the critical enablers that have long underpinned NATO’s ability to deter and, if necessary, fight a major war in Europe. Moscow is watching all of this closely, and the timing matters. As Washington signals that it intends to do less, Russia is increasing pressure on NATO’s eastern flank.   In recent weeks, Moscow has threatened Latvia over false claims that it is allowing Ukraine to use its territory or airspace to launch drone attacks against Russia. Baltic officials have rejected those claims, but the pattern is familiar: Manufacture a grievance, amplify it, and use it to build the foundation to justify future aggression. At the same time, Russia is facing growing domestic strain, which we’ve talked about here on Brussels Sprouts as well, raising questions about whether Putin needs a permanent state of confrontation with the West to sustain his hold on power. So, with all of this, today we are asking a central question: Does Russia see opportunity in this moment, one in which the United States may be pulling back faster than Europe can fill the gap?  To help us understand the view from Moscow, we’re very pleased to welcome back to Brussels Sprouts a series of former intelligence officials: Nate Reynolds, Pete Schroeder, and Jeff Edmonds.  Peter Schroeder is an expert on Russian foreign and security policy with nearly two decades of experience working on Russia and Eurasia in various roles in the intelligence community. He is an adjunct fellow with the Center for a New American Security (CNAS).  Nate Reynolds is a senior fellow with the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and also a longtime intelligence official. Jeff Edmonds is the president of True North Policy, an adjunct fellow with CNAS, and also a very longtime intelligence veteran. 
• U.S. Military Posture and Implications for European Security 27.05.2026 45min

  Over the last several weeks, U.S. allies have been trying to make sense of a dizzying series of announcements about America’s military posture and broader role in Europe. First came reports that the Trump administration planned to withdraw roughly 5,000 troops from Germany following a public dispute with Chancellor Friedrich Merz over the war with Iran. Shortly thereafter, the Pentagon paused the deployment of thousands of U.S. troops to Poland—a move that blindsided officials in Warsaw, particularly because Poland has consistently positioned itself as a model ally. Then, in another abrupt reversal, President Donald Trump announced that the United States would instead send an additional 5,000 troops to Poland, though it remains unclear whether these are new forces, previously paused deployments, or units being shifted from elsewhere in Europe.These announcements hung heavy over last week’s NATO Foreign Ministers meeting in Sweden, where Secretary of State Marco Rubio signaled that Washington would step back from playing the leading role in negotiations between Russia and Ukraine after months of stalled diplomacy. Rubio also emphasized that European allies would need to shoulder more of the burden for their own defense, reinforcing the sense that the United States is narrowing the scope of its role in European security.At a moment when Russia continues to pressure NATO’s eastern flank, the debate is no longer whether the United States will reduce its role in Europe but how fast, how coherently, and with what consequences for deterrence and alliance cohesion.To help us unpack all of this, Douglas Lute and Justyna Gotkowska join Brussels Sprouts this week to discuss. Justyna Gotkowska is deputy director and head of the Security and Defence Department at the Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) in Warsaw. Ambassador Douglas Lute is chair of BGR Group’s International and Trade Practice and its Defense and Critical Technologies Practice. He is a retired U.S. Army lieutenant general and formerly served as the U.S. permanent representative to NATO. 
• A State of “Unorder?” 08.05.2026 1h

  As conversations about the status of the liberal world order swirl in capitals on both sides of the Atlantic, many are realizing that old ways of thinking about the rules-based order, power, and international cooperation may no longer hold. Mark Leonard’s new book, Surviving Chaos: Geopolitics When the Rules Fail, argues that we need a fundamentally different way of thinking about the future. The current moment may not be a world between orders, but a new state of durable “unorder,” defined by four big structural forces—climate, chips, capital, and civilizations—along with the biggest source of the chaos behind them: China. Chaos has become the system, Leonard argues, and rather than looking for order, Europeans should figure out how to have agency. Surviving Chaos is especially relevant given the U.S. war with Iran, demonstrating how today’s crises overlap and reinforce one another. Energy shortfalls, food insecurity, nuclear proliferation, and global economic shocks all occur simultaneously. Do today’s crises signal a deeper shift toward unorder? Are shared rules and assumptions still relevant? And what does this mean for Europe and how can it adapt?To discuss these questions and much more, Brussels Sprouts is excited to welcome Mark Leonard to this week’s edition of the podcast.Mark Leonard is cofounder and director of the European Council on Foreign Relations. 
• Rising Domestic Pressure in Russia? 01.05.2026 55min

  Over the last several weeks, strain within Russia's domestic political system has become increasingly apparent. The Kremlin has intensified digital controls, intermittently disrupting mobile internet access and placing growing pressure on foreign platforms, including the widely used Telegram messaging service. Authorities have also expanded efforts to restrict VPN use. While the government frames these measures as necessary to guard against Ukrainian drone attacks, public frustration appears to be mounting. Russians have attempted to hold protests and are voicing complaints on social media, with one video expressing grievances by an influencer and former reality TV star going viral.Discontent is also surfacing among segments of the elite. Politicians in the “systemic opposition,” along with some members of United Russia, have publicly questioned aspects of the tightening restrictions. Business leaders and economic officials concerned about mounting costs and disruptions have signaled unease. At the same time, structural pressures in the economy are becoming more pronounced. Despite benefiting from elevated energy revenues, Russia faces persistent inflation, fiscal strain, and an acute labor shortage. Putin’s central banker was just out declaring an unprecedented labor shortage driven by an exodus of 1.5 million people and about 1.3 million casualties in the war. Individually, neither tightening information controls nor economic strain is likely to drive political change. But taken together, do these pressures point to something more consequential? And what do they mean for Russia's future?To answer these questions and more, Brussels Sprouts welcomes Alexander Gabuev and Joshua Yaffa to the show.Alexander Gabuev is the director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.Joshua Yaffa is a contributing writer at The New Yorker and the author of Between Two Fires: Truth, Ambition, and Compromise in Putin’s Russia, which won the Orwell Prize in 2021. 
• Transatlantic Adaptation: A More European NATO? 24.04.2026 51min

  Doubts about U.S. reliability and the future of NATO are top of mind for most in the transatlantic community. The concerns that spiked after President Donald Trump’s threats to seize Greenland have gained new urgency amid the standoff over Europe’s position on America’s war in Iran. The tensions in U.S. relations with Europe were on full display earlier this month during President Trump’s meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in Washington and afterward when Trump berated NATO allies online, calling the alliance a paper tiger.   In the context of these criticisms and threats, European officials are reportedly working on fallback plans to ensure Europe can maintain deterrence against Russia, preserve command and control, and replace military assets if the United States departs the alliance. All of this raises fundamental questions about the future of the NATO alliance. How can Europe maintain credible deterrence with less U.S. involvement? And what is the latest thinking on how the alliance needs to adapt?  To tackle these questions and more, Brussels Sprouts is excited to welcome back Ivo Daalder and Camille Grand to this week’s edition of the podcast.  Ivo Daalder is a former U.S. ambassador to NATO and previously served as president and chief executive officer of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. Camille Grand is secretary general of the Aerospace, Security, and Defence Industries Association of Europe and previously served as assistant secretary general for defense investment at NATO.
• Orban Out: The Impact on European Politics, Ukraine, and Democracy 17.04.2026 56min

  On April 12, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban conceded defeat in the country’s general elections, which ousted his party Fidesz and ended his rule of 16 years. The election was widely seen as a referendum on Orban’s self-described “illiberal democracy,” and his loss is a blow to the global nationalist movement promoted by U.S. President Donald Trump. Peter Magyar, a former ally of Orban and the founder of Tisza, the main opposition party, will take over as prime minister once the new parliament convenes.The defeat is striking not just because Orban held power for so long but because of just how rigged the Hungarian system was in his favor. Over 16 years, Orban’s party tilted the electoral system to its advantage, stacked the judicial system and independent agencies, and took control of most news media. Magyar and his party’s message focused on economic dissatisfaction and anticorruption, which resonated with voters and prompted record turnout. And Magyar’s Tisza party win has broader implications for Europe. In the short term, without Orban advocating for the Kremlin’s interests, blocking European assistance to Ukraine, and watering down sanctions against Russia, change in Hungary will likely yield positive results for Ukraine.To discuss all of this and more, Brussels Sprouts is excited to welcome Rosa Balfour and Dan Kelemen to this week’s edition. Rosa Balfour is the director of Carnegie Europe.R. Daniel Kelemen is the McCourt Chair at Georgetown University’s McCourt School of Public Policy. 
• European Perspectives on the U.S.-Iran Conflict 10.04.2026 54min

  On April 7, after more than five weeks of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 14-day ceasefire, provided Iran allows passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The following day, the leaders of seven European states—plus Canada, the European Commission, and the European Council—released a joint statement welcoming the ceasefire, encouraging a negotiated settlement, and announcing that their governments “will contribute to ensuring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.”The group included the United Kingdom (UK), France, Germany, and Spain, which has especially angered President Trump for its opposition to the war. Leaders from each of these countries and the European Union have also called for the ceasefire to include Lebanon, which the United States and Israel say was not part of the agreement. On a planned visit to the Gulf, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer emphasized the importance of opening the Strait of Hormuz, saying it is the “job” of leaders to do so. France’s top military commander said that the French government was considering “strictly defensive” military options to assist.That same day, Trump met with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in Washington as part of a long-scheduled visit. Trump reportedly used the meeting to vent his frustration with NATO allies over their refusal to back the U.S. war with Iran, signaling that he was considering reprisal. Trump, who has repeatedly threatened to pull the United States out of the alliance, berated NATO allies online following the meeting and alluded to his previous threats to annex Greenland—which precipitated the last major crisis in the transatlantic relationship before the war with Iran.  To make sense of these developments, Brussels Sprouts is happy to welcome back Constanze Stelzenmüller and Sophia Besch to this week’s edition of the podcast.  Sophia Besch is a senior fellow with the Europe Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.  Constanze Stelzenmüller is the director of the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution. The episode was recorded on April 10, 2026. 
• The War in Iran, a Benefit to Putin 31.03.2026 52min

  While the world's attention has turned to the war with Iran, the war in Ukraine continues. Russia has seemingly kicked off its spring offensive, but a meaningful breakthrough remains unlikely. Moscow has increased the tempo of its operations, relying more heavily on mechanized and motorized assaults, an approach that is typical for this time of year. Yet last year's experience suggests limited prospects for success. Despite a similar surge last year, Russian forces achieved only marginal gains while incurring significant equipment losses, ultimately forcing Russian forces to relatively quickly return to smaller scale infiltration tactics.Meanwhile, the war in Iran will affect dynamics in Ukraine. The most pressing concern for Ukraine is its air and missile defense. Russia is expanding production of ballistic missiles and improving their effectiveness. Kyiv remains heavily dependent on U.S.-provided systems to intercept these threats, with no real viable alternative currently available. The United States is rapidly expending these resources in the Middle East. And the longer that conflict continues, the more it is likely to exacerbate Ukraine's vulnerability. Financially, Russia is also benefiting from the war with Iran. Higher oil prices and the easing of US sanctions are pumping higher revenue into Russia's coffers. Although Ukraine is taking bold steps to disrupt Russia's energy exports, a prolonged period of higher energy prices will, at a minimum, alleviate the economic strain that Moscow was feeling earlier this year.To discuss these dynamics and much more, Brussels Sprouts is very happy to welcome Elina Ribakova and Ambassador Bill Taylor to the show this week. Ambassador Bill Taylor is a distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center and former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine.Elina Ribakova is vice president for foreign policy at the Kyiv School of Economics and a non-resident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
• The United States, Iran, and the Risk to NATO 27.03.2026 57min

  On March 14, in the wake of a global energy shock triggered by the United States military campaign against Iran, President Donald Trump called on allies to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, where Iranian attacks on commercial shipping have disrupted oil flows. European leaders responded cautiously, and in many cases negatively, as they tried to balance concerns about the conflict with the need to preserve relations with Washington. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius was blunt, saying, “This is not our war.” United Kingdom (UK) Prime Minister Keir Starmer struck a more measured tone, pledging to work with allies to restore freedom of navigation, but emphasizing that the UK would “not be drawn into the wider war.” The following day, Trump raised the stakes, warning that NATO faces a “very bad” future if allies fail to act. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte expressed confidence that members would ultimately come together to secure the strait. But the incident has already exposed deep unease in Europe, both about the trajectory of the conflict and on the future of the transatlantic alliance.To discuss all of this and more, Brussels Sprouts is excited to welcome Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook and Jeremy Shapiro to this week’s show. Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook is executive vice president at the Bertelsmann FoundationJeremy Shapiro is the research director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, where he focuses on U.S. foreign policy and transatlantic relations 
• Europe’s New Nuclear Deterrence Debate and France's Answer 13.03.2026 49min

  On March 2, 2026, in a speech at France’s Île Longue base, French President Emmanuel Macron unveiled major changes to France’s nuclear deterrence doctrine. First, Macron announced an increase, the first since 1992, in France’s nuclear stockpile. France currently maintains 290 warheads and will increase that number to a now-undisclosed count. He also announced a new doctrine, what he called “forward deterrence.” This is a partnership with seven European countries—Germany, Poland, Belgium, Denmark, Greece, the Netherlands, and Sweden—on strategic issues. That cooperation will include partner participation in nuclear exercises and the potential for France to temporarily deploy nuclear armed fighter jets to other European countries. While France will maintain the independence of its nuclear command and control and remain outside of NATO’s nuclear mission, this extension of the French nuclear umbrella represents a significant shift in French policy in response to the new realities of the European security environment, which includes a less reliable commitment from the United States.  To help us understand these changes and to talk through broader implications of a declining U.S. presence in Europe for European strategic deterrence, Brussels Sprouts is excited to welcome Claudia Major and Bruno Tertrais to this week’s show.  Claudia Major is the senior vice president of Transatlantic Security at the German Marshall Fund.  Bruno Tertrais is the deputy director of the Foundation for Strategic Research and a non-resident fellow at the Institut Montaigne. 
• Europe’s View on Operation Epic Fury 05.03.2026 52min

  On February 28, the United States launched Operation Epic Fury, a major military campaign against Iran carried out alongside Israeli strikes. The opening wave targeted Iranian command and control nodes, missile forces, and military infrastructure across multiple cities and included a decapitation strike that killed the supreme leader. The conflict quickly spread beyond Iran itself. Tehran has retaliated with missile and drone strikes across the Gulf, hitting U.S. and allied targets in countries including Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, and even striking the British military base in Cyprus.From Europe, the response has been sharply divided. Spain’s government has rejected what it called the “unilateral military action” by the United States and Israel and denied U.S. forces the use of Spanish bases for the operations. Sitting with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in the White House, President Donald Trump slammed Spain’s position and threatened to cut off trade with Madrid. And Spain hasn’t been Trump's only target—Trump has been highly critical of UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer. After Starmer said the UK did not support regime change from the sky and initially blocked the use of UK bases for strikes, Trump said of his counterpart, “this is not Winston Churchill we are dealing with,” and that the special relationship between the United States and the UK is “not what it was.” Across European capitals, officials are also bracing for the consequences: fears of a new refugee crisis, evacuations of citizens from countries across the Gulf, higher energy prices, cyber and terrorism threats, and concerns that a widening Middle East conflict could further strain already tight munitions supplies needed to support Ukraine. To discuss all this and much more, Brussels Sprouts welcomes Steven Erlanger and Julian Barnes-Dacey. Steven Erlanger is the chief diplomatic correspondent in Europe for The New York Times and is based in Berlin. Julien Barnes-Dacey is the director of the Middle East & North Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations. 
• Reflecting on Four Years of War in Ukraine 27.02.2026 50min

  This week marks the four-year anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Brussels Sprouts wanted to mark this somber milestone with a look at the conflict and the ongoing efforts to secure a durable end to the war. Even as the war in Ukraine shows no signs of an imminent end, the international community, and the allies in Europe in particular, have been working on the foundations of a credible security guarantee for Ukraine once the fighting ends. Part of this line of effort has been the proposed creation of a multinational force, which could be deployed to Ukraine once the hostilities cease to serve as a visible reassurance force. Perhaps more critically, the multinational force could help Ukraine regenerate its military forces and strengthen its own ability to deter further Russian aggression.Led by the United Kingdom and France, the multinational force has the potential to be a key pillar of Ukraine's future security, yet there are lingering questions about what the force aims to do and how it will function.The UK Minister for the Armed Forces Al Carns joins Brussels Sprouts to share insights on the multinational force, the state of the war at this four-year mark, and UK views on the changing dynamics in the European security landscape.Alistair Carns has served as the UK minister for the armed forces since September 2025 and as a member of Parliament since 2024. Before holding elected office, he served as an active-duty Royal Marine officer for 25 years. 
• Can China Capitalize on Changing Transatlantic Currents? 20.02.2026 45min

  This week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts picks up in the aftermath of the Munich Security Conference. The U.S. tone at Munich was notably more conciliatory than last year, as U.S. officials sought to calm anxieties. Secretary of State Marco Rubio received a standing ovation as he called European allies America’s oldest friends and cited the history of mutual defense from Korea to Afghanistan. But for many Europeans, the rhetoric did little to dispel deeper doubts about the trajectory of the transatlantic relationship. Meanwhile, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi was also at Munich, stepping onto the main stage against the backdrop of transatlantic strain. Wang used his presence to position China as a responsible global actor and a stabilizing force in a fragmented world. Notably, the sharp European rhetoric toward Beijing that defined previous conferences was more muted. As tensions with Washington have mounted, several European leaders, including Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and United Kingdom Prime Minister Keir Starmer, have also traveled to Beijing. Geopolitical currents in both Europe and the Indo-Pacific are rapidly changing, and there is no one better to talk about these developments than a former ambassador to both China and NATO: Ambassador Nick Burns.  Nick Burns is a professor of diplomacy and international relations at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government. Previously, he was a career foreign service officer and served as U.S. ambassador to China from 2021–2025 and as ambassador to NATO from 2001–2005. 
• Can Europe (Ever) Defend Itself? 10.02.2026 57min

  Today’s Brussels Sprouts discussion follows on from our conversation last week on whether middle powers have the ability to chart a course more independent of the United States. Today, we delve into this question as it pertains to whether Europe can defend itself with significantly less U.S. presence in Europe—or none at all. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte recently addressed that question, saying that if anyone believes Europe or the European Union can defend itself without the United States, they are "dreaming.” In December, German newspaper Die Welt conducted a wargame simulating a Russian invasion of NATO, in partnership with military researchers at Helmut Schmidt University. During the exercise, Russian troops moved unchallenged through NATO territory for three days, capturing a Lithuanian city in the Suwałki Gap. The resulting analysis has cast serious doubt on whether European NATO states can defend their Baltic allies.   We are joined today by one of the wargame participants, Franz-Stefan Gady, as well as Russian military analyst Mike Kofman, to help us delve into these critical questions on how “Europe with less U.S." would fare in a fight against Russia, and how long it might take Europe to get to a place where it can take on greater responsibility for its own defense.  Mike Kofman is a senior fellow with the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Franz-Stefan Gady is a defense analyst, the founder of Gady Consulting, and an adjunct senior fellow with the Center for a New American Security. 
• Carney's Challenge: Can Europe Take the Reins of NATO? 06.02.2026 1h

  Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney made headlines at this year's World Economic Forum in Davos with his speech in which he declared that the international system is in the midst of a rupture—not a transition—and that middle powers must reduce their dependence on great powers such as the United States. Carney called for middle powers to diversify their partnerships and cooperate among themselves to hedge against rising uncertainty, and great powers' weaponization of interdependence. Carney asserted that the middle powers must act together because “if we're not at the table, we're on the menu.”  Carney's speech was praised far and wide, with many crediting him for calling out what many have been feeling, especially in the last year under the Trump administration. What remains to be seen, however, is whether middle powers like Canada and its transatlantic partners will truly be able to form the new partnerships needed to reduce their dependence on the United States and navigate changing geopolitical realities.    To help us find the answers to these questions and more, we're excited to welcome Barry Posen and Ivo Daalder to Brussels Sprouts.  Barry Posen is professor of international relations at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the former director of the MIT Security Studies Program. Ivo Daalder is a senior fellow at Harvard’s Belfer Center. He was previously the president of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and the U.S. ambassador to NATO from 2009 to 2013. 
• Transatlantic Tumult at Davos 23.01.2026 51min

  It has been a tumultuous month in the transatlantic alliance. This week, President Donald Trump’s demands to take control of Greenland reached a fever pitch. On Sunday, President Trump threatened major tariffs on Denmark, France, the United Kingdom, Germany, and a host of other American allies in Europe to coerce them to accept his demands for U.S. control over Greenland. For many European allies, Trump crossed a line, and allies raised the prospect of using their anticoercion instrument against the United States. Though Trump posted on Wednesday afternoon that he had negotiated a “framework deal” to avert the crisis with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, much damage was already done. Meanwhile, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney gave a speech at the World Economic Forum annual meeting at Davos declaring the end of the era of decisive U.S. global leadership, Trump launched the Board of Peace for Gaza—to which he invited Russian President Vladimir Putin—and Putin ordered more missile and drone strikes on Ukraine’s capital and critical infrastructure, in what has been one of the harshest winters in Ukraine in recent memory. Less than a month into the new year, it’s hard to avoid the feeling that we are in the worst period the Transatlantic Alliance has seen since World War II.  To help us make sense of recent events and to put this crisis into historical context, we're very happy to welcome Jim Goldgeier and Charles Kupchan to Brussels Sprouts.  Jim Goldgeier is a research affiliate at Stanford University and a professor of international relations at American University, and he worked on the National Security Council under the Clinton administration.  Charles Kupchan is a senior fellow with the Council on Foreign Relations and a professor of international relations at Georgetown University. He also served on the National Security Council under Presidents Clinton and Obama.