The Pod of Gold

Episodet

• The Premium on Bearishness: Gold’s Delta on the Downside 03.07.2026 10min

  In this sharp, fast-paced edition of The Pod of Gold, ABC Refinery’s Global Head Institutional Markets, Nicholas Frappell, breaks down the "concerted slide lower" defining the precious metals landscape. Recorded on 2 July 2026, Nick bypasses retail noise to examine why gold has dipped into its key macro weekly cloud support area, trading at $4,068 US.Nick unpacks the "premium on bearishness" currently visible in the 25 Delta risk reversals—detailing exactly why options dealers are valuing downside protection heavily over upside calls—the optical in September rate hike expectations, continued global ETF outflows, and the subtle "basing indicators" pointing to an impending counter-trend rally.Key Discussion PointsPrecious metals spot check at recording: US dollar gold trading at $4,068/oz with silver consolidating near $59/oz.Dissecting gold’s slide into the weekly cloud support zone ($3,666 to $4,090) and the emergence of the "premium on bearishness”.Why options positioning reveals deep skepticism over the US-Iran peace talks, combined with a flattening yield curve.Analysing the latest data from the CME and tracking a 661,000-ounce (21-tonne) outflow from global gold ETFs.Reviewing short-term point and figure targets, identifying subtle "basing wicks" on the daily candles, and previewing the upcoming US non-farm payrolls data.Timestamps(00:00) – Introduction and Current Gold Market Overview(01:13) – Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment(02:41) – The Ceasefire Skepticism & The Fed(03:48) – Market Positioning and ETF Flows(05:40) – Future Outlook and Key Economic IndicatorsTechnical Reports: Access Nick Frappell’s institutional chartbooks and monthly analysis at abcrefinery.com/podcast.Follow Shae Russell on X: @shaearussellFollow Nick Frappell on X: @nick_frappell
• The Asymmetric Shock: How Global Energy Stress is Suppressing Gold 12.06.2026 17min

  In this mid-June edition of The Pod of Gold, Nicholas Frappell, Global Head Institutional Markets at ABC Refinery, delivers high-level resource intelligence on the shifting precious metals sector. Recorded on 10 June 2026, this strategic session bypasses retail speculation to break down the exact technical thresholds, macro drivers, and energy cross-currents defining modern commodity valuations.The discussion provides institutional-grade insight into the gold market's recent decline, driven by climbing real yields and sticky policy rate expectations. Frappell explains how a massive compute spend by AI hyperscalers is providing structural insulation to the US economy, while also analysing the persistent geopolitical blockade in the Middle East and the emerging structural shift in the options market.Key Discussion PointThe Macro Headwind: Analysing gold's downward pressure as two-year Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) yields climb by nearly half a percentage point, alongside surging market expectations for Fed funds to land between 4% and 4.5% by April 2027.AI Hyperscaler Economic Moat: How the relentless infrastructure spend on compute—now accounting for a staggering 1.4% of US GDP growth—is drowning out traditional economic data warning signs.The Strait of Hormuz Blockade: Assessing the prolonged conflict and why world crude and product liquid fuel inventories hitting 15-year lows will inevitably trigger a "month of reckoning" for global supply chains.Official Sector Demand Resilience: Reviewing the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) adding an alleged 10 tonnes of gold to official reserves in May, reinforcing the long-term sovereign floor for the asset classThe SpaceX Factor: A look at upcoming downstream market sentiment indicators, exploring how the liquidity and success of memeified mega-IPOs may infect adjacent asset classes.Timestamps(00:00) – Market Overview and Pricing Structure(01:07) – Technical Analysis: Bearish Cloud Rejection(02:09) – US Dollar and Sovereign Real Yields Influence(02:39) – Market Expectations for Fed Policy Rates(03:36) – US Economy and AI Hyperscalers' Spending(04:25) – Market Sentiment: ETFs and Managed Money(06:01) – Geopolitical Tensions: Iran War and Oil Inventories(07:51) – Energy Markets and Energy Security(10:03) – Gold's Technical Support and Resistance Levels(11:34) – Medium and Long-Term Gold Price Targets(12:57) – Options Pricing and Market Probabilities(15:21) – Key Takeaways: Headline Risk Management(16:30) – OutroResource Intelligence Technical InterceptsGold Realised Support Floor: Major Weekly Cloud Top support remains durable at $4,058/oz. Market analysts suggest a drop to this level would still keep gold within a macro upward trend.Gold Immediate Resistance Ceiling: Daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance begins rigidly at $4,650/oz. A daily close above this band is required to regain a true bullish tilt.Point & Figure Mid-Term Targets: If gold fails to hold the crucial $4,100/oz daily support marker, subsequent long-term targets drop significantly to $3,900/oz, $3,675/oz, and $3,400/oz.Options Market Deltas: Current volatility curves price the probability of gold achieving $4,130/oz over three-to-six months at 40% (a functional coin toss), while pricing a broader structural correction to $3,900/oz at a 25% probability. Puts remain relatively well-bid.More ResourcesTechnical Reports: Access Nick Frappell’s institutional chartbooks and monthly analysis at abcrefinery.com/podcast.Follow Shae Russell on X: @shaearussellFollow Nick Frappell on X: @nick_frappell
• Silver’s Surprise Leap: Meme Punters, Peru’s Emergency, and the 18% Surge 15.05.2026 19min

  In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nicholas Frappell returns from the RIU Sydney Resources Roundup to discuss a market caught between "fatigue" and "crunch time." While the closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains a critical threat, Frappell explains how record US shale exports and a strategic reduction in Chinese imports have bought the global economy a temporary reprieve — though perhaps a deceptive one.The episode explores the "enormous tech spend" currently rivaling the economies of Singapore and Argentina, and how this infrastructure race competes with an already strained electrical grid. Plus, a deep dive into silver’s unexpected 18% rally and the technical hurdles gold must clear to regain its bullish tilt.Recorded: 13 May 2026Market status: Gold is consolidating at $4,711/oz, while silver has made a "surprising leap" to $86/oz.The recap: Key insights from the RIU Sydney conference, focusing on the downstream effects of hyperscaler compute spend.The geopolitical buffer: How the Permian basin and Chinese reserve reliance are muting the impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure.Silver mania: Analysis of the $86/oz silver price — is it Peru’s fuel emergency or the return of the "meme punter"?The $650B compute spend: Why tech giants are competing with aging electrical infrastructure, a dynamic Nick notes rivals the total economic output of Singapore.Hormuz & inflation: The 80-basis-point rise in Fed rate expectations since February and why central banks are desperate to keep inflation expectations "anchored."India’s strategic pivot: The Modi government’s decision to tax gold and silver imports to preserve hard currency for critical energy resources.The "Hammer" re-test: Assessing gold’s position within the Daily Ichimoku Cloud and the $4,850 "line in the sand" for bulls.Timestamps(00:00) – Market Overview: Gold at $4,711; Silver at $86.(02:31) – RIU Sydney Recap: The massive tech spend and electrical infrastructure constraints.(05:07) – Strait of Hormuz Update: Why the closure effects still look underpriced.(07:23) – Fed Expectations: The 80-bps tightening since February and gold’s bullish narrative.(08:32) – US CPI Analysis: April’s 3.8% reading and the "balance of payments" advantage.(10:22) – Technical Analysis: Exploring the Daily Ichimoku Cloud and the $4,850 ceiling.(12:55) – Silver Deep Dive: Peru’s fuel emergency and COMEX inventory flows.(16:13) – Managed Money & ETFs: Positioning updates and the "Fast Money" fatigue.(18:37) – Point & Figure: Medium-term targets and the $4,000 support level.(21:20) – Final Thoughts: US-Iran conflict fatigue and the looming "crunch time."Gold Resistance: $4,850 (Daily Ichimoku Cloud Top). A close above this is required to regain a bullish tilt.Gold Support: $4,000 (Major Weekly Cloud Top support level).Silver Momentum: Up 18% since May 6th; watch for physical premiums on COMEX.Macro Marker: January 2027 Fed rate expectations (up 80 bps since late February).Technical Reports: Access Nick Frappell’s institutional analysis at abcrefinery.comFollow Shae Russell: @shaearussellFollow Nick Frappell: @nick_frappell
• The Hammer & The Ceasefire: Gold’s Resilience Amidst Gulf Volatility 13.04.2026 11min

  In this high-stakes update, Nicholas Frappell examines the "U-turn" in the gold market following a period of extreme volatility. After gold hit a significant low of US$4,100 on March 23rd, it staged a US$300 rally, creating a powerful "Hammer" candlestick that has redefined the short-term technical floor.The discussion focuses heavily on the fragile two-week ceasefire in the Gulf and its immediate impact on the energy-gold nexus. Key Discussion PointsThe Hammer Reversal: Analysing the March 23rd price action where gold recovered from US$4,100 to close at US$4,407, providing a definitive technical signal.The Ceasefire Catalyst: How the cessation of hostilities led to a US$15/bbl drop in Dated Brent and a US$90 surge in gold over the week.Asymmetric Shocks: Why the US Dollar outperformed Eurozone and Asian currencies during the Hormuz blockade due to America's status as a net petroleum exporter.The Fragile Peace: Differing interpretations of the ceasefire between the US and Iran, specifically regarding the complete opening of the Strait of Hormuz.Economic Scars: Why the shocks to refinery runs in Singapore and Southeast Asia are already "baked into the cake," regardless of the ceasefire’s duration.Timestamps(00:00) – Introduction: Recording on 10 April 2026.00:44) – Technical U-Turn: The US$4,100 low and the "Hammer" candle.(02:15) – Currency Dynamics: The dollar as a safe haven and the balance of trade shock.(04:25) – The Ceasefire Stress Test: US, Iran, and the Strait of Hormuz negotiations.(06:06) – Rate Expectations: Why Fed pricing remains largely unchanged despite the conflict.(07:32) – Positioning Update: Steady managed money longs and global ETF holdings (98.55m oz).(08:21) – Price Targets: Short-term upside to US$4,830; medium-term resistance at US$5,075.(11:25) – Global Investors Summit: Nick previews his upcoming trip to Hong Kong.Current Trend: Gold remains technically bearish in the daily timeframe despite the rally; a close above US$5,100 is required to challenge the Daily Ichimoku Cloud top.Resistance Levels: US$4,935 (Cloud Base) and US$5,075 (Cloud Top).Support Levels: US$4,100 (Hammer Low) and US$4,450 (Short-term downside target).More ResourcesTechnical Reports: Access Nick Frappell’s institutional analysis at abcrefinery.com/podcast.Follow Shae Russell: @shaearussellFollow Nick Frappell: @nick_frappell
• The Energy Shock Mirage: Decoding Gold’s Pivot 20.03.2026 18min

  In this mid-March edition of The Pod of Gold, ABC Refinery’s Nicholas Frappell distills the escalating US-Iran conflict. This discussion moves beyond the initial market shock to explore why gold is currently behaving more like a risk asset than a safe haven.Nick provides a high-level tactical analysis of the Middle Eastern theatre, from the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz to the potential for American "boots on the ground" at Kharg Island. The episode breaks down the energy supply shock—impacting everything from global chip production to fertilizer supplies—and why the markets may be dangerously "fading" these geopolitical risks.Technical analysts will also find deep value in Nick’s breakdown of gold’s breach of the Daily Ichimoku Cloud and a Point & Figure target for Brent Crude that suggests the energy crisis is far from over.📆 Recorded on Thursday 19th March 2026, this episode explores:🕒 Timestamps:(00:00) – Introduction: Precious metals prices as of 19 March 2026.(01:09) – Geopolitical Realities: Analysing the widening downstream impacts of the Iran conflict.(03:22) – The Safe Haven Paradox: Why the US dollar is winning while gold retreats.(05:53) – Energy Mitigants: Pipelines, emergency reserves, and the "Tank Top" countdown.(08:00) – Military Dimensions: The USS Tripoli and the risk of American boots on Iranian soil.(09:32) – Positioning: Managed Money’s surprising caution in the face of high volatility.(10:46) – Brent Oil Forecasts: Technical targets as the energy shock intensifies.(11:51) – Technical Analysis: Gold’s first breach of the Daily Ichimoku Cloud since mid-2025.(14:40) – The End of the Carry Trade? Second-order effects of yen weakness and energy imports.(16:24) – Key Takeaways: Headline risk, the Macbeth quote, and the legacy of war.🔗 More Resources:Visit: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcastFollow Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappellFollow Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell—---------------
• The De-Dollarisation Myth: Why Global Capital Still Floods to the Greenback 24.02.2026 30min

  In this special location episode of The Pod of Gold, Nicholas Frappell, Global Head of Institutional Markets from ABC Refinery, records on the final day of the RIU Explorers Conference in Fremantle. Following his keynote address, Nick unpacks the "uncertainty bingo card," explaining why traditional indicators like gold and the US dollar are defying historical correlations.This episode dives deep into the technical and macroeconomic cross-currents defining 2026, including the shift from "de-dollarisation" to "de-fiatisation", the unprecedented retail silver frenzy in China, and why Kevin Warsh’s arrival at the Fed might actually mean more expensive money. Nick also provides exclusive technical updates using Ichimoku Cloud analysis and provides the probabilities for gold and silver’s next major moves.📆 Recorded on Thursday 19th February 2026 at the RIU Explorers conference, this episode explores:Market dynamics, price targets, and the role of managed money in these movementsThe implications of Fed policy and inflation on precious metals. 🕒 Timestamps:(00:00) – Introduction: From the floor of the RIU Explorers Conference in Fremantle.(01:17) – The Uncertainty Proxy: Why measles outbreaks and the Fed narrative track with gold.(03:00) – The Warsh Factor: Quantitative tightening and the "belly of the curve."(05:51) – Breaking Correlations: Analysing gold’s rally alongside high real rates and a strong dollar.(08:16) – De-fiatisation vs. De-dollarisation: Why China is still accumulating greenbacks.(12:38) – Silver’s Forgotten Story: Comex inventory shifts and Chinese retail premiums.(16:55) – Managed Money Data: Identifying "Fast Money" trends in gold and silver.(21:17) – Technical Analysis: Ichimoku Cloud support levels and Point & Figure upside targets.(24:00) – Option Market Probabilities: Is a $140 silver price actually on the cards?(28:09) – The "Big Macro" Indicator: Monitoring the US Net International Investment Position.🔗 More Resources:Visit: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcastFollow Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappellFollow Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell
• Gold’s $5,000 Milestone: The Anatomy of a Rally and a $400 Plunge 06.02.2026 18min

  In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nicholas Frappell, Global Head of Institutional Markets at ABC Refinery, discusses gold recently shattering the USD$5,000 barrier before experiencing an "eye-watering" $400 correction in mere minutes, the team explores the technical and macroeconomic forces behind the chaos.The discussion provides deep technical insight into negative gamma on dealer option books, the impact of President Trump’s new Fed chair nominee, Kevin Warsh, and why silver recently behaved like an "enraged rattlesnake".📆 Recorded on Monday 2nd February 2026, this episode explores:Market dynamics, price targets, and the role of managed money in these movementsThe implications of Fed policy and inflation on precious metals. 🕒 Timestamps:(00:00) – Introduction and Market Overview(00:34) – Gold Market Dynamics(03:44) – Managed Money Positioning(06:31) – Price Targets and Predictions(09:03) – Silver Market Insights(11:31) – Final Thoughts and Future Outlook🔗 More Resources:Visit: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcastFollow Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappellFollow Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell—---------------
• Gold and Silver on Fire: Historic Gains, Central Banks and the Macro Forces Shaping 2026 23.12.2025 19min

  In this final episode of The Pod of Gold for 2025, Nicholas Frappell, Global Head of Institutional Markets at ABC Refinery, unpacks one of the most extraordinary years in precious metals history.Gold has delivered its second-best annual performance since free trading began in 1979, with silver close behind. This podcast explores what drove this year’s rally and whether the bull market still has room to run into 2026. Frappell outlines his medium- and long-term price targets for both metals, breaks down positioning data across futures, ETFs and managed money, and explains why neither market appears overstretched despite the sharp gains.The discussion then turns to the global macro backdrop shaping precious metals markets: the Federal Reserve’s pivot toward lower rates, ongoing divergence in central bank policy, rising bond yields, and the implications for the US dollar. Nicholas also examines developments in Japan, China’s prolonged property downturn, and the growing geopolitical risks tied to the Russia–Ukraine war and energy markets.With politics, geopolitics and monetary policy increasingly intertwined, this episode provides a comprehensive wrap-up of 2025 and a clear framework for understanding the forces likely to influence gold and silver in the year ahead.Listen now to close out the year and prepare for what lies ahead in 2026.📈 Frappell also examines:Gold and silver’s historic performance in 2025Price targets and technical outlook for 2026Futures, ETF and managed money positioningFed rate cuts, US dollar weakness and bond market risksJapan, China and global demand dynamicsGeopolitical tensions and their impact on precious metals🕒 Timestamps:(00:37) – Gold’s Best Year Since 1979(01:46) – Gold Price Targets for 2026(02:39) – Can Gold Hit $5,000? Technical Analysis(03:08) – Gold Futures Positioning: Is the Market Overcrowded?(04:10) – Gold ETFs, Open Interest and Investor Flows(04:58) – Silver’s Breakout Year: The Forgotten Outperformer(07:40) – Silver Price Targets: How High Can It Go?(08:14) – Why Central Banks Still Matter for Gold(10:03) – Bank of Japan Rate Hikes and the Yen(11:44) – China’s Property Crisis and Economic Slowdown(15:06) – Geopolitics, Global Tensions and Gold(18:21) – Gold and Silver Outlook for 2026(18:51) – Final Thoughts and Year-End Wrap🔗 More Resources:Visit: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcastFollow Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappellFollow Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell
• Silver squeeze, gold’s next move & China’s slowdown 20.11.2025 15min

  In this week’s episode of The Pod of Gold, ABC Refinery’s Global Head of Institutional Markets, Nicholas Frappell, dives deep into October’s extraordinary volatility across the precious metals space.Recorded on Tuesday, 18 November 2025, Frappell unpacks the extreme tightness in the silver market, the drivers behind gold’s sharp drop and powerful rebound, and why China’s deteriorating economic indicators matter enormously for Australia. From negative gamma flows to fixed asset investment, this episode is loaded with actionable insights for traders, investors, and precious-metals followers.📈 Frappell also examines:Why silver lease rates briefly exploded to ~200%How metal flows to COMEX, New York ETFs, and India helped drain London's lending poolThe return of metal to London vaults—53 million oz, the biggest inflow since 2016Whether December Fed rate cuts are still likelyGold’s medium- and short-term upside and downside price targetsETF flows and what limited data we have on positioningChina’s rare –12.2% drop in fixed-asset investment, persistent deflation risks, and slow-motion property crisisWhy China’s troubles matter directly for Australia’s economy🕒 Timestamps:(00:00) – Introduction(00:32) – Recap of a busy conference schedule(01:14) – Gold goes parabolic… then drops ~US$420: what happened?(02:24) – Listener question: What caused October’s extreme tightness in silver?(04:56) – Turning back to gold: analysing the late-October rally(05:53) – Key support levels: Ichimoku, Fibonacci & volatility drivers(06:24) – Gold & silver targets: medium- and short-term outlook(07:54) – Positioning: what we can infer without COT data(09:15) – ETF flows in gold & silver(09:48) – China update: investment collapse, deflation & property sector slump(12:34) – Why China’s malaise matters for Australia(13:08) – Final thoughts: volatility, US dollar direction & Fed uncertainty(14:00) – When Frappell will (hopefully!) return to the mic🔗 More Resources:Visit: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcastFollow Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappellFollow Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell
• Gold Breaks $4,000: What’s Driving the Rally and What Comes Next 08.10.2025 10min

  In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nicholas Frappell, Global Head of Institutional Markets at ABC Refinery, unpacks gold’s explosive surge through US $4,000/oz — a milestone that’s reshaping market sentiment and investor positioning around the world.Recorded on Wednesday, 8 October 2025, this special short-form episode explores the macro and technical forces behind gold’s breakout and what traders should watch for next.📈 Frappell also examines:Why the US$4,000 mark is a psychological and technical milestone for gold investorsThe macro drivers behind the rally — from fiscal dominance and rising debt pressures to shifting Fed policyThe impact of the US government shutdown on positioning data and market sentimentWhat to expect when Chinese markets reopen after the holidaysPoint & Figure targets pointing toward near-term resistance at US$4,073–4,172Ichimoku Cloud analysis and distant support levels near US$3,671 and US$3,576How round-number psychology and short-term volatility could shape the next phase of gold’s run🕒 Timestamps:(00:00) – Introduction(00:33) – Gold marches through US$4,000(01:22) – The macro backdrop (03:38) – Positioning & ETF inflows amid the US government shutdown(05:38) – Technical outlook: Short-term risks and what to watch as China reopens(06:42) – Point & Figure analysis(07:32) – Ichimoku Cloud weekly big picture(08:27) – Summary and what’s ahead at IMARC 2025🔗 More Resources:Visit: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcastFollow Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappellFollow Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell
• “Don’t Fight This Rally” – Gold Hits New Highs as the US Dollar Falters 25.09.2025 17min

  In this episode, Nicholas Frappell, Global Head of Institutional Markets at ABC Refinery explains why Gold has surged to a historic US $3,759, and the momentum shows no sign of slowing.📆 Recorded on Tuesday 23rd September 2025, this episode explores:Why weakness in the US dollar and shifting Federal Reserve policy are fuelling the rallyKey price targets—including short-term resistance around US $3,800 and medium-term potential near US $4,000The surge in ETF inflows and investor rotation out of equitiesGeopolitical flashpoints and economic signals from China that could keep gold in demand📈 Frappell also examines:Dollar Index (DXY) weakness and what past declines suggest for a possible rebound.September’s 25-bp cut and why the market’s hopes for deeper, faster easing may be misplaced.Inflation break-even rates and why the Fed’s own projections challenge the “rapid cuts” narrative.Rotation out of US equities and into gold as a hedge.Technical targets: short-term and medium-termKey support zonesEscalating tensions—Russian jets, uncertain US leadership—and their impact on safe-haven demand.China’s slowing fixed-asset investment and soft consumption shaping global trade flows.🕒 Timestamps:(00:00) – Introduction(00:55) – Moves behind the gold rally(04:55) – Managed money positioning(08:38) – Gold price targets(11:20) – Is the US dollar losing its grip?(13:07) – Geopolitics & macro drivers(14:08) – Key takeaways🔗 More Resources:Visit: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcastFollow Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappellFollow Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell—---------------
• Gold’s Relentless Run: Targets, ETFs, and the Fed 10.09.2025 17min

  In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nicholas Frappell, Global Head of Institutional Markets at ABC Refinery, unpacks gold’s historic rally and what could lie ahead.📆 Recorded on Tuesday 9th September 2025, this episode explores:The drivers pushing gold to fresh record highs.The role of weak US labour data and Fed policy expectations.Why ETF and Managed Money positioning matter right now.The potential scenarios that could actually stop this rally.Price targets including the much-discussed 3860 level.How the US dollar is influencing precious metals markets.Whether you’re a trader, investor, or simply fascinated by gold, this episode provides deep insights into positioning, sentiment, and what the next 14 days may bring.📈 Frappell also examines:US labour market weakness and Fed rate cut expectations.ETF inflows vs Managed Money longs.Central bank gold buying and its impact on demand.Scenarios that could trigger a gold pullback.Near- and medium-term price targets.The broader macro backdrop: dollar, tariffs, and risk assets.🕒 Timestamps:(00:00) – Introduction(00:44) – What’s driving gold higher right now(04:12) – Question from listener: “Could anything stop this rally?”(08:19) – ETF flows vs Managed Money positioning(10:16) – Price targets: short-term, medium-term, and $3860(11:34) – Medium-term price target explained(12:22) – The role of the US dollar and Fed policy(15:15) – Key takeaways and closing thoughts(17:00) – Outro🔗 More Resources:Visit: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcastFollow Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappellFollow Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell—---------------
• How Challenges to Fed Independence and a Slow-Mo Trade War are Supporting Gold 27.08.2025 25min

  In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nicholas Frappell, Global Head of Institutional Markets at ABC Refinery, discusses the key drivers for gold prices over the past few weeks, including geopolitical uncertainty and the impact of tariffs on the US economy.📆 Recorded on Tuesday 26th August 2025, this episode explores:Insights into current managed money and ETF positioning in the gold market.Frappell's technical analysis of gold, including short-term and longer-term price targets using the Ichimoku cloud indicator.A deep dive into the current state of the US Dollar and how recent events regarding the Federal Reserve's independence are impacting it and gold.A look at the Chinese market, including the struggling property sector and the disconnect between economic performance and stock market rallies.📈 Frappell also examines:How Chinese property prices continue their downward glide.What the Taylor rule suggests about interest rates.How the Fed's independence is being challenged and why that's potentially positive for gold.🕒 Timestamps:(00:00) – Introduction(02:29) – Driving factors for gold prices(04:40) – Tariffs and gold(5:26) – How Powell’s Jackson Hole speech impacts gold(10:00) – Managed money and ETF positioning(11:04) – Gold price targets(14:13) – What's happening with the US Dollar?(16:19) – Where the Fed fund's rate 'should' be(18:28) – A look at the Chinese market(21:33) – Where should you be watching when it comes to gold?🔗 More Resources:Visit: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcastFollow Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappellFollow Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell—---------------
• Tariffs, Debt, & Gold's Safe Haven Appeal 16.07.2025 21min

  In the 70th episode of The Pod of Gold, Nicholas Frappell, Global Head of Institutional Markets at ABC Refinery, analyses the factors driving gold's performance, including the impact of the "Big Beautiful Bill" on US debt and inflationary pressures. Frappell also examines how re-emergent tariffs are affecting the physical gold market, and what current managed money and ETF positioning reveals about investor sentiment.📆 Recorded on Tuesday 15th July 2025, this episode explores:The effect of US debt and news flow on gold prices.The impact of tariffs on global trade, growth, and the physical gold market.An in-depth look at gold inventory holdings in London and COMEX depositories.Analysis of current managed money and ETF positioning in the gold market.🕒 Timestamps:(0:00) – Introduction(0:56) – Driving factors for gold prices(3:58) – The physical gold market and re-emergent tariffs(9:27) – Managed money and ETF positioning(11:34) – Gold price targets(14:58) – Is the US Dollar weak or strong?(16:55) – How weak Chinese demand will impact us(19:28) – Key takeaways🎧Special Offer for Pod of Gold ListenersABC Bullion Precious Metals Forum 2025 presents, Gold and The New World Order.Bringing together global leaders in the precious metals industry to share insights on the current landscape and future opportunities.With ABC Bullion's General Manager, Jordan Eliseo, as the Master of Ceremonies for the evening, there's also a great line-up of speakers set to include:Jim Rickards: Investment banker, lawyer, economist, New York Times best-selling author and globally renowned precious metal expertNicholas Frappell: Global Head of Institutional Markets at ABC RefineryWayne Bramwell: CEO at Westgold Resources (ASX:WGC)Pod of Gold listeners can get a 20% discount on tickets by using the code PODOFGOLD at checkout. Click here for details.🔗 More Resources:Visit: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcastFollow Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappellFollow Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell
• Geopolitical Tensions, Gold, and the US Debt Outlook 30.06.2025 14min

  In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nicholas Frappell, Global Head of Institutional Markets at ABC Refinery, analyses the recent geopolitical events in the Middle East, their impact on gold and crude oil markets, and the current state of physical gold demand in Asia-Pacific.Frappell also examines current gold positioning, short and medium-term price targets, and key factors influencing the US dollar and debt landscape. 📆 Recorded on Monday 30th June 2025, this episode explores:Global dynamics shaping the gold marketGold and oil price rally after Iran strikeCurrent managed money gold positioningShort and medium-term gold price targetsKey factors influencing the US dollar and debt landscape. 🕒 Timestamps:(00:00) – Introduction(00:33) – Special offer for Pod of Gold listeners(01:16) – Recent market activity(02:05) – Discussion on Iran-centric events and gold/crude rally(05:04) – Impact on physical gold demand in Asia-Pacific(06:02) – Managed money positioning in gold(07:58) – Short and medium-term gold price targets(10:12) – Analysis of the US Dollar and debt landscape(11:44) – Gold and The New World Order(12:02) – Summary and key takeaways🎧Special Offer for Pod of Gold ListenersABC Bullion Precious Metals Forum 2025 presents, Gold and The New World Order.Bringing together global leaders in the precious metals industry to share insights on the current landscape and future opportunities.With ABC Bullion's General Manager, Jordan Eliseo, as the Master of Ceremonies for the evening, there's also a great line-up of speakers set to include:Jim Rickards: Investment banker, lawyer, economist, New York Times best-selling author and globally renowned precious metal expertNicholas Frappell: Global Head of Institutional Markets at ABC RefineryWayne Bramwell: CEO at Westgold Resources (ASX:WGC)Pod of Gold listeners can get a 20% discount on tickets by using the code PODOFGOLD at checkout. Click here for details.🔗 More Resources:Visit:⁠ https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast⁠Follow Nick Frappell:⁠ https://twitter.com/nick_frappell⁠Follow Shae Russell:⁠ https://twitter.com/shaearussell⁠
• Tariffs, Debt & Dollar Pressures: What’s Supporting Gold in 2025 04.06.2025 18min

  In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nicholas Frappell, Global Head of Institutional Markets at ABC Refinery, analyses the persistent strength in gold despite recent volatility and what market signals are saying about the months ahead.📆 Recorded on Tuesday 3rd June 2025, this episode explores:Why the gold price trend remains intact despite recent pullbacksGlobal political risks and shifting perceptions of trade negotiationsHow gold ETFs are benefiting from futures market inefficienciesEvolving market sentiment around US tariffs and inflation risksKey technical levels in gold using Ichimoku Cloud analysis📈 Frappell also examines:Gold and silver managed money positioningThe impact of trade policy on short-term inflation expectationsU.S. debt issuance risks and the signal from rising Japanese bond yieldsThe outlook for the US dollar into the second half of 2025What current Fed commentary is (and isn’t) pricing in🕒 Timestamps:(0:00) – Welcome and what’s driving the gold rally?(3:55) – Physical gold flows and Asian market dynamics(5:41) – Managed money positioning & gold ETFs(7:32) – Technical analysis: Key Ichimoku support/resistance levels(9:04) – Fed policy, inflation risk & bond yields(12:53) – US dollar outlook for the rest of 2025(15:27) – Summary: Key takeaways from today’s market📥 Key Takeaway:Gold's bullish structure remains intact. With inflation fears, tariff risk, and a softer USD on the horizon, gold may have more room to run — especially if market complacency is disrupted.🎧 Don’t forget to subscribe for the next episode, where Nick will break down China’s property market and its implications for gold and global trade.🔗 More Resources:Visit: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcastFollow Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappellFollow Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell—---------------
• Gold Above $3,000: What’s Driving the Rally & Where to Next? 15.04.2025 19min

  In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nicholas Frappell, Global Head of Institutional Markets at ABC Refinery, unpacks the powerful forces pushing gold above USD $3,000 per ounce — and whether it has further to go.Recorded on Monday, April 14, this episode dives deep into the drivers of the current gold rallyPlus, don’t miss Nick’s sharp commentary on America’s evolving economic policy and its ripple effects across precious metals markets.PODCAST INFO: ABC Refinery website: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Nick Frappell: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/nick_frappell⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Shae Russell: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/shaearussell⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to Nick’s monthly report for deep technical & macro insights.OUTLINE: Here are the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players, you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.Timestamps:(0:00) – Introduction(1:30) – The role of tariffs, inflation expectations, and market volatility(3:21) – The fall of the USD and rising bond yields(6:35) – Managed money positioning(11:13) – Short-term price targets for gold, including resistance levels(13:47) – Fed Chair Powell’s comments downplaying inflation concerns(16:47) – Key takeaways
• Analysing the Fed's Meeting, Gold's Rally Above $3,000, and Managed Money Moves 21.03.2025 11min

  In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nicholas Frappell, Global Head of Institutional Markets at ABC Refinery, analyses the Fed's statements after their March meeting and the factors driving the recent surge in gold prices. Recorded on Thursday 20th March, Frappell examines how far above $3,000 per ounce gold can go.Frappell’s analysis delves into what managed money positioning reveals about the current gold rally, exploring the role of short covering and gold ETF flows. He also touches upon the silver market and the significant buying activity observed. The episode further covers technical analysis using the Ichimoku Cloud, highlighting the positive trend for gold. Frappell also discusses short-term gold price targets based on point and figure analysis. The conversation also touches on Fed Chair Powell's recent comments regarding inflation expectations and tariffs . Finally, the episode briefly addresses market pricing of the Fed's future interest rate expectations.PODCAST INFO: ABC Refinery website: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Nick Frappell: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/nick_frappell⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Shae Russell: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/shaearussell⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠OUTLINE: Here are the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players, you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.Timestamps:(0:00) – Introduction(0:38) – What's driving the current gold rally?(1:11) – Inflation expectations and Powell's comments(3:38) – Managed money positioning in gold(4:50) – Managed money positioning and ETF activity in silver(6:03) – Technical analysis: The Ichimoku Cloud for gold(7:42) – Gold price targets (short-term)(9:26) – The Fed's stance and market expectations for rate cutsTune in to hear expert perspectives on the outlook for gold, the significance of managed money positioning, and the implications of the Fed's recent communication....
• Gold's Defensive Actions: Managed Money, and the Yellow Metal's Rally. 02.03.2025 25min

  In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nicholas Frappell, Global Head of Institutional Markets at ABC Refinery, analyses the factors influencing gold markets, recorded on Friday 28th February.Frappell’s analysis examines what managed money reveals about gold; looks at how much longer gold's rally might last; and discusses the international markets, covering the US Gold Reserve Revaluation and China’s property sector.This episode also covers: gold’s technical targets and managed money positioning to the RBA's recent rate cut; the Fed's potential slower pace of rate cutting through 2025; and how these policies may affect gold markets.PODCAST INFO: ABC Refinery website: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Nick Frappell: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/nick_frappell⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Shae Russell: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/shaearussell⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠OUTLINE: Here are the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players, you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.Timestamps: (0:00) – Introduction (0:35) – Gold's wild ride through uncertainty (3:05) – Chinese regulators allowing Chinese insurance companies to purchase gold (4:55) – United States and their gold reserves (9:05) – What managed money tells us on gold positioning (11:17) – Gold trends through the Ichimoku Cloud (13:53) – Gold price targets (17:18) – RBA's interest rate cuts and their impact (18:24) – The Fed's potential slower pace of rate cutting through 2025 (20:18) – The Japanese Yen (21:39) – China's approach to stabilising its property sectorTune in to hear expert perspectives on the short-term and long-term outlook for gold....
• Gold’s Record Highs, Trump’s Tariffs, and the Global Market Fallout 05.02.2025 13min

  In the first episode of The Pod of Gold for 2025, Nicholas Frappell, Global Head of Institutional Markets at ABC Refinery, breaks down a whirlwind start to the year for gold. Just one month into 2025, gold has already hit two record highs, with the latest peak at $2,830 USD. But what’s driving the price action? The big headline is Trump’s new tariffs, imposed on Canada, Mexico, and China over the weekend. Nicholas explains how these tariffs are impacting gold and silver markets, short-term borrowing rates, and the US dollar. They also explore what this means for inflation, trade, and economic growth as the global economy braces for uncertainty. From gold’s technical targets and managed money positioning to the broader geopolitical and currency implications of a new trade war, this episode unpacks all the critical market movements shaping 2025. PODCAST INFO: ABC Refinery website: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Nick Frappell: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/nick_frappell⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Shae Russell: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/shaearussell⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ OUTLINE: Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time. Timestamps: (0:00) – Introduction: Gold’s wild start to 2025 (1:33) – Market Reaction: Short-term borrowing rates and spot market shifts (2:30) – Trump’s Tariffs: The impact on gold, silver, and global trade (5:17) – Gold Spot: All time high. (6:20) – Managed Money Positioning: How traders are adjusting to volatility (7:45) – Gold prices ‘Stronger for longer’ and ‘Fixation on gold reaching US $3,000’. (9:30) – Currency conversation: What are the impacts on gold and currencies during a trade war? Don’t miss this must-listen episode as markets brace for a volatile year ahead!