The Julia La Roche Show

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  #409 Danielle DiMartino Booth: Fed Is Hiking Into Recession, Consumers Tapped Out, & Credit Tightening 17.09.2026 34мин

  Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of QI Research and author of Fed Up, joins Julia La Roche to break down the Fed's 25 basis point rate hike under Chair Kevin Warsh. The statement first looked dovish, but markets reversed after Warsh's record-short 29-minute press conference hinted at more hikes. That sent the 10-year Treasury to 5.01%, its highest level since 2007. Danielle argues Warsh has broken his own "zero forward guidance" pledge and is "enamored with his narrative" of a Goldilocks economy. She points to a labor market already in recessionary territory, with long-term unemployed now outnumbering job leavers. She says core PCE inflation is on a steady path lower, while households face mounting strain from gas prices, utility bills, bankruptcies, and tightening credit. The two also discuss the K-shaped economy and why Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent may not be done acting on the bond market. Danielle explains why peak AI investment, propped up by hyperscaler accounting gains, is the biggest risk she sees. She closes on an optimistic note about the work ethic of today's college-age generation.Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links:    Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth  Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQIFed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655Timestamps: 0:00 Intro0:40 Fed hikes 25 bps: the big-picture takeaway1:22 Markets price in three more hikes after the press conference4:21 Assessing Warsh so far: forward guidance despite his pledge5:37 Fed projections: 2.5% core PCE, 4.1% unemployment7:02 Sponsor: Augusta Precious Metals8:26 Labor market already in recessionary territory10:12 Warsh is "enamored with his narrative"10:53 The household squeeze: gas, utilities, beef to chicken11:47 Even the top of the K is losing confidence12:19 AI was 100% of GDP growth, and real AI investment has turned13:20 Payroll data quirks: the World Cup hiring surge14:06 Sponsor: Monetary Metals15:33 Trump's reaction: 10-year at 5.01%, stocks down16:05 Scott Bessent isn't finished17:04 Warsh gives Bessent the Heisman17:41 10-year at a 19-year high, and the Fed was easing last time18:14 What the Fed is getting wrong: August's one-off inflation blips20:03 Core PCE is coming down, plus BEA methodology changes20:56 Bankruptcy lawyers are making bank: record filings22:23 Do rate hikes even work? Cash-out refis and credit tightening23:29 The stock market isn't the economy: airlines and the top of the K25:16 Is Warsh chasing the wrong monkey on his back?25:47 Other worries: PE bankruptcies, rogue AI agents, socialism27:22 Bernanke's 2% target and post-COVID stimulus28:31 The risk keeping her up at night: peak AI investment29:49 Hyperscaler accounting games and the "E" in P/E31:40 What's making her optimistic33:25 Wrap-up
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  #408 Jeffrey Gundlach: We've Crossed to the Hard Side of the Street 16.09.2026 1ч 2мин

  Legendary bond investor Jeffrey Gundlach, founder and CEO of DoubleLine Capital, returns to The Julia La Roche Show. He warns that the market has "crossed over to the hard side of the street." With the Shiller CAPE above 42, he says history points to negative real returns for the next decade. Cracks are already showing in AI-related credit, where junk bonds and bank loans have widened sharply while the rest of high yield holds up. Gundlach says he now wants out of the AI "epicenter" entirely. He walks through his current portfolio: equal-weight equities, a barbell of high-quality bonds and local-currency emerging market debt, gold, commodities, and short-duration "dry powder." He expects CPI to print above 4% as oil tops $100 and diesel hits $8 a gallon, and he predicts a 25 basis point hike from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. He also explains why 30-year TIPS won't protect investors from rising rates and why he's skeptical of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's Operation Twist. He sees a dangerous web of private credit, arbitraged credit ratings, and offshore reinsurance, calling private credit the fuse and insurance companies the bomb. He urges annuity buyers to stick with mutual insurers and warns that bailout pressure will be intense when the AI and private markets reckoning arrives.Thank you to our partnersAugusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links: YouTube https://www.youtube.com/@DoubleLineCapitalWebsite: https://doubleline.com/Webcasts: https://doubleline.com/doubleline-webcasts/0:00 Intro1:16 Shiller CAPE, a decade of negative real returns? 3:33 The mood turns: AI credit starts to crack8:10 Gundlach Unlocked: his new portfolio with zero AI exposure12:12 Gold, plus commodities and dry powder17:25 Rising rates and the $40 trillion debt milestone17:55 Operation Twist and the endgame for the debt22:19 Oil above $100 and a near-empty Strategic Petroleum Reserve25:12 Why CPI is headed above 4% and Warsh's 2% promise28:54 The German Bund and GDP model for the 10-year31:54 When he'd buy long bonds35:27 Will Warsh hike? 38:31 Advice for Scott Bessent? 40:14 The Fed follows the 2-year41:20 Dollar debasement and the 30-year TIPS myth43:29 Why you can't trust credit ratings46:27 Private credit is the fuse, insurers are the bomb53:25 Peak optimism: this feels like 1999 and 20061:01:18 Final warning: the hard side of the street
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  #407 Chris Whalen: $100 Oil, 5% Rates, and a Home Price Correction Coming for the Whole Country 12.09.2026 36мин

  The Wrap with Chris Whalen is back after a summer vacation with a blunt read on the fall ahead: affordability — fuel, housing, food — has already decided the midterms, and the Iran conflict plus the Russia-Ukraine war have created a shortage not just of crude but of refined products, with refinery maintenance season and the shift to heating oil set to push prices higher still. He calls $100 oil and a 5% 10-year Treasury the new normal, argues Scott Bessent's buyback strategy has failed, and expects a quarter-point hike next week while raising the more unsettling question: what happens if the Fed raises short rates and the long end goes up anyway? On gold, Whalen is still accumulating, sees $6,000–$7,000 only after a fiscal catalyst like a bad Treasury auction, and points to Shanghai's gold-linked clearing system and Russia's 100-ton sale to China as evidence of where physical demand really lives. He also answers viewer questions on the exodus at Fannie Mae, the flawed data behind credit scores, how to actually save in gold, why he owns only Flagstar and Schwab, and warns that Florida's home price correction is coming for the rest of the country next year.Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcoverUse the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 – Welcome back: summer's over, a lot to catch up on0:50 – Energy prices and the midterms: decided at the pump?1:13 – Affordability is the story: diesel, heating oil, Europe's supply crisis2:51 – The $5,000 "Trump dividend" and buying votes4:13 – What nobody in Washington will say about insolvency5:00 – FDICIA, continuing resolutions, and a Congress that can't say no6:34 – Oil near $100: does it get worse from here?7:33 – Rates "going back to normal" after 15 years of Fed subsidy9:24 – Calling 5% on the 10-year — and Bessent's failed buyback strategy10:29 – Warsh rules out QE, spreads tighten anyway11:57 – Why banks are suddenly buying multifamily12:58 – Is 5% a stop along the way or the destination?14:31 – What Chris expects from the Fed next week15:06 – The big question: what if the Fed has lost the long end?16:11 – What losing control of long rates would actually signal17:24 – Gold with David Kotok, and why it's not a trading vehicle18:28 – Tom McClellan on the oil–gold relationship (with a 16-month lag)20:09 – A quiet year: banks, AI trade, and boring winners21:17 – What takes gold from $4–5K to $6–7K22:00 – Russia sells 100 tons of gold to China22:53 – Is the dollar really in decline? CIPS, Shanghai, and sanctions24:12 – How high can diesel and Brent go this winter?25:30 – Iran, the Houthis, and the Red Sea26:59 – Viewer Q: What's happening inside Fannie Mae?28:30 – Pulte, VantageScore, and the bad-data problem in credit scoring29:39 – Viewer Q: How do you actually save in gold?30:45 – Florida home prices are falling — "Misery on the Eights"31:31 – Viewer Q: The big money center banks32:47 – Viewer Q: Book recommendations and the gold book33:23 – Closing thoughts: an age of instability
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  #407 Larry McDonald: The Bond Market's Biggest Contrarian Trade 08.09.2026 41мин

  New York Times’ bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to break down what he's hearing from the veteran investors in his network — and the shift he's watching in real time. Portfolio managers who spent two years as raging bulls have turned bearish on the financials and are quietly spending a slice of their gains on downside protection while volatility is cheap. McDonald walks through the mechanics of the data center financing boom: hundreds of billions in off-balance-sheet debt from the hyperscalers, the banks now holding that exposure, and the credit default swaps those same banks are buying on the Mag 7. He explains why he sees a late-2006 rhyme in private credit and the CCC market, why diesel prices could re-spark inflation over the next few CPI prints, and why the most crowded trade on Wall Street right now may be the bearish one on bonds. Plus: the "supernova" dynamic that turns a hot economy into a fast recession, why he's still long hard assets, and the one risk he thinks almost nobody is talking about.Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links: How To Listen When Markets Speak: https://www.amazon.com/Listen-When-Markets-Speak-Opportunities-ebook/dp/B0C4DFVFNR Colossal Failure of Common Sense: https://www.amazon.com/Colossal-Failure-Common-Sense-Collapse/dp/B002IFLWMKTwitter/X: https://twitter.com/Convertbond Bear Traps Report: https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/0:00 — Intro1:18 — A million books sold, and what the ideas dinners reveal3:07 — Where the smart money is shifting right now4:39 — How investors are buying protection: CDS, puts, VIX ETFs5:35 — Late cycle: data center financing and the Mag 7's cash burn7:00 — Meta's $30B off-balance-sheet financing and what banks did next8:22 — Why banks are buying CDS on the companies they lend to9:42 — Lehman Systemic Risk Indicators: CCCs, LQD, private credit11:00 — "You're manufacturing Bernie Madoffs": no business cycle, no cleansing12:21 — Midterms, the Treasury, and the DSA risk to the long end17:00 — Why inflation isn't as tame as it looks — diesel is the tell18:56 — Scott Bessent vs. the "faculty lounge" Treasury21:44 — The Google bond at 88, the Apple bond at 4923:39 — Are there hidden SVBs out there?25:55 — The contrarian trade: buying duration when everyone's bearish27:42 — What the bond market is signaling29:40 — Why the bad news is 80-90% priced in31:49 — The supernova effect and how recessions actually start33:06 — Hedging equities: puts on the financials at record price-to-book34:30 — Biggest under-the-radar risk36:00 — What he's still long: energy, coal, copper, gold miners37:22 — Where to find the Bear Traps Report
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  #406 Chris Whalen Answers Your Questions on Gold, the Fed, and Retirement Risk 29.08.2026 31мин

  In part two of the all-viewer-question edition of The Wrap, Chris Whalen and Julia tackle everything from gold confiscation to credit union safety. Chris argues that a 1933-style seizure is possible in a debt crisis, since heavy government borrowing effectively encumbers every asset in the country, and that offshore physical gold is the only real protection. He explains why rising gold prices pressure the Treasury and gradually erode the dollar's role as the world's medium of exchange, drawing parallels to the monetary fragmentation of post-Roman Europe that he's been researching for his upcoming book. Along the way he critiques Jerome Powell for extending QE long after credit spreads normalized in 2020, pushes back on fears of a boomer-driven market selloff, breaks down how Annaly Capital actually makes money, flags private-credit takeovers of insurance companies as a genuine risk to annuity holders, and shares his own portfolio split. He closes with thoughts on land value taxes, the likelihood of a US VAT, and life in Florida versus New York.Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcoverUse the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 - Cold open: "No democracy can have sound money"0:25 - Welcome back — viewer questions only1:31 - Could the government confiscate gold again like 1933?4:50 - Inside Chris's new book on gold6:37 - Gold price outlook: 2026, 2027, 20288:30 - Best ways to own metals without holding physical9:27 - Why we ran surpluses from 1998-200110:30 - What Jerome Powell should have done differently13:44 - Will retiring boomers crash the market?15:42 - Equal-weight S&P funds at current valuations16:04 - Nvidia financing its own customers: circular financing?18:06 - Annaly (NLY) explained: leverage, servicing, and lending20:51 - Common shares or preferred?21:41 - Is the 60/40 portfolio dead? Chris's actual allocation23:47 - Are credit unions safer than banks?25:22 - Annuity owners: how to protect yourself from insolvency27:07 - Land value taxes, wealth taxes, and the case for a VAT28:37 - Florida vs. New York: an honest review30:00 - Wrap-up and housekeeping
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  #405 Ted Oakley: Gold Still Cheap at $4,600, The Energy Move Could Be Bigger, & 3 Signs of a Stock Market Top 25.08.2026 45мин

  Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors, returns to explain why he sold all his silver and much of his gold exposure in late 2025 and early 2026 — then bought it all back, and more, in mid-July. With gold near $4,600 he argues it's still roughly 18–20% below its January high and nowhere near expensive if you're thinking in terms of a one-and-a-half to two-year horizon and a $7,000–$8,000 objective. The driver, in his view, is a loss of faith in the dollar backed by a fiscal picture with no exit: within five years, entitlements plus a slice of defense will exceed total federal revenue. Oakley explains why he'll only own Treasuries inside twenty-four months, why investors stuck in 20- and 30-year bond funds have lost millions with no way out, and why energy may be the bigger opportunity than gold — underowned after years of fossil-fuel divestment, profitable at $70–80 oil, and paying dividends from 6% to 11%. He also lays out the three classic ingredients of a market top, all of which he says are now in place, and previews his forthcoming book Asleep at the Wheel, aimed at boomers who've stopped rebalancing.Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links:Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisorsX: https://x.com/Oxbow_AdvisorsBook: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168Timestamps: 00:00 – Intro01:04 – Gold/silver discussion 02:44 – "Is it too late?" Gold at $4,60003:55 – The real case for hard assets: losing faith in the dollar05:09 – $40 trillion in debt and Bessent's long-bond buybacks07:38 – Why Oakley won't own anything past 24 months10:16 – What gold is signaling — and why energy could move next12:20 – The energy thesis: underowned, cheap, 6–11% dividends15:17 – The psychology of buying and selling19:04 – Why energy isn't a buy-and-hold — and the copper trade22:08 – Commodities as the AI trade, and cracks in the semis23:37 – The three ingredients of a market top are all here26:00 – "Aren't you missing out?" Oakley's answer29:03 – How the Fed ruined fifteen years of price discovery31:56 – Half the industry has never seen a real bear market35:11 – The boomers who won't rebalance37:00 – Asleep at the Wheel40:32 – Parting thoughts: learn to go against the grain
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  #404 Chris Whalen Answers Your Questions on the Fed, Rates & the Next Bailout 22.08.2026 24мин

  In part one of The Wrap's viewer question special, Chris Whalen takes on a full slate of audience questions about the Fed, the Treasury, and where rates go from here. He explains why Kevin Warsh and Scott Bessent have largely written off war-driven inflation as something monetary policy can't fix, and what it would actually take to change that posture. From there he walks through the plumbing most commentary skips: why shrinking bank reserves would push short-term yields down rather than up, how the Treasury can run its own version of quantitative easing through repurchase agreements, and why the Fed's mortgage-backed securities book — much of it now carrying an average life measured in decades — represents what he calls a study in hubris. He also fields the practical questions: whether long Treasuries are worth owning (his answer is no), where he'd park cash instead, what a 5% 10-year does to the deficit math, and how big the next crisis-era bailout would have to be. The episode closes on the yen carry trade, the limits of what Washington can do about it, and Whalen's expectation that nothing difficult gets attempted before the midterms.Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcoverUse the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 — Cold open: shrinking reserves and the Treasury's repo plan0:33 — Welcome + what this episode is (part one of viewer Q&A)1:10 — How long will the Fed stay indifferent to inflation?4:08 — Could we cut the Fed out of rate decisions and just use SOFR?5:02 — Would you buy a 30-year bond at these rates?6:35 — If the Fed shrinks its balance sheet, don't rates go up?9:43 — What does "Treasury doing QE on the short end" actually mean?12:30 — A word from Monetary Metals13:56 — Can the Treasury handle 5% on the 10-year?15:26 — T-bills — pros, cons, and better alternatives16:25 — How big does the next bailout have to be?18:48 — The yen, intervention, and the carry-trade squeeze21:16 — The biggest macro story of the back half of the year23:37 — Parting thoughts: Florida, earnings season, and UWM next week
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  #403 Harry Dent on the Everything Bubble — And the Only Safe Haven Left 18.08.2026 51мин

  Economic forecaster and bestselling author Harry Dent makes his debut on the show with one of the most aggressive bearish calls we've hosted. Dent — who built his reputation forecasting the 1980s–2000s boom and Dow 10,000 when almost nobody believed it — walks through the three long-term cycles he uses to map the economy decades ahead: the 39-year generational spending wave, the 45- and 90-year technology innovation cycles, and a geopolitical cycle. His conclusion is that the downturn that should have arrived in 2008 was smothered by roughly $31 trillion in stimulus, creating a bubble that now spans stocks, real estate, and even gold. He lays out what a full reversion looks like — a first-wave crash he thinks could be visible by October, housing down 60% in the middle of the country and more at the high end, and a path back toward the 2009 lows for equities — and explains why he believes long-dated Treasuries, not gold, are the only real safe haven. Dent also makes the case that the bust is not the enemy: it's where innovation and affordability come from, and where the millennial generation finally gets its shot. Looking past the washout, he sees India and Southeast Asia as the growth engines of the next four decades, China as structurally finished, and US tech as the thing to buy when it's on sale.Thank you to our partnersAugusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links: https://hsdent.com/hs-dent-forecast/00:00 – Intro: Harry Dent makes his debut00:59 – How demographics became his life's work03:23 – The 45- and 90-year cycles that create bubbles04:15 – Calling the 2007 top back in the 1980s08:07 – AI is in its infancy — and that's when the biggest crashes happen09:00 – India is the next China10:28 – 2008 was 1930 all over again — and $31 trillion papered over it13:08 – Anatomy of the everything bubble14:30 – The average Ohio house down 60%. High-end down 70–80%16:47 – The millennials who got priced out are the ones who win19:12 – How far stocks fall: 90% on the S&P, 96% on the Nasdaq22:20 – The first wave: 42% in 2.6 months24:38 – "I was the most bullish forecaster on earth"25:40 – Positioning for the first crash: SQQQ and sizing27:06 – Why TLT and the 30-year Treasury are the trade after that31:08 – The case against gold: it joined the everything bubble34:21 – Which house should you sell? Not the one you think39:15 – China's 22% empty real estate and the coming reckoning45:00 – Nobody in a bubble sees the bubble because they're high on it48:55 – Watch October
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  #402 Chris Whalen: Private Credit's First Big Unwind — and Why Insurance Is Next 15.08.2026 32мин

  In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris breaks down the 777 Partners bankruptcy — a sprawling collapse touching insurance, reinsurance, soccer clubs, and airlines that he says is a preview of how private credit ultimately unwinds: slowly, messily, and with fraud along the way. He explains why the contagion risk to insurance matters most for ordinary people, since firms like Apollo, Brookfield, and Blue Owl use insurance balance sheets to fund private credit strategies, leaving annuity and life policyholders exposed. Chris also digs into United Wholesale Mortgage, arguing the real problem wasn't the Two Harbors hedge but years of cash extraction and overvalued servicing assets — and what Oaktree's $1.5 billion rescue means now that "the grim reaper of Wall Street" is in the building. On markets, he describes a manic tape where cycles no longer exist, questions whether AI valuations survive Chinese competitors offering the same functionality at a tenth of the cost, and wonders whether Kevin Warsh will finally let the market take a hit. He then makes the case that the cooler CPI print is masking a genuine inflation problem: diesel is up roughly 35% since February, key industrial chemicals and LNG capacity was destroyed in the Iran conflict, and those input costs are rippling into food, housing, construction, and packaging. Finally, Chris explains why he thinks the gold and silver bull markets remain fully intact, and what the Byzantine Empire taught him about what happens when gold runs short.Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 777 Partners blog post: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira879 Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcoverUse the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 - Intro1:37 - 777 Partners bankruptcy: what the demise of private credit looks like3:56 - Does this accelerate the slow-motion train wreck?5:45 - Contagion risk to insurance: annuities, life policies, and private credit balance sheets7:36 - United Wholesale Mortgage, Mat Ishbia, and the Oaktree rescue10:44 - Oaktree, the "grim reaper of Wall Street," and stress in mortgage lending11:00 - DSCR loans and the rental-property workaround12:13 - Monetary Metals: earn a yield on your gold13:22 - Markets at records: "the numbers are too big"15:20 - The Warsh Fed: will bailouts end?16:05 - AI valuations, the price war, and Chinese competition17:36 - Inflation beneath the surface: input costs are exploding18:08 - Diesel up 35%, heating oil, chemicals, and the fall squeeze20:02 - Food prices, farmers, and the Iran war fallout22:39 - Spillover into housing, construction materials, and packaging24:19 - Gold's run higher and Chinese buying25:13 - Silver: a commercial trade, and the supply problem26:44 - The WGA precious metals top 25 list28:14 - Lessons from Byzantine monetary history29:38 - Parting thoughts: private credit surprises, the Middle East, and the midterms30:39 - Closing
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  #401 Jim Rickards: The Iran War, "Trump's on the Losing Side of That Bet," The Case for $10,000 Gold, and the Japanese Yen Carry Trade Unwind — The Most Important Financial Story in the World 13.08.2026 1ч

  Jim Rickards returns for a wide-ranging macro conversation on a world where geopolitics and economics have fully merged. He lays out the US–Iran standoff as a global game of chicken — Trump betting Iran's economy breaks first, Iran betting the midterm elections break Trump first — and explains why he thinks Tehran holds the stronger hand, why regime change was always a fantasy, and how a handful of drones a week is enough to keep the Strait of Hormuz bottled up. From there he turns to gold: how he used Jim Rogers' 50% drawdown rule and fractal scale invariance to call the bottom, why central bank buying puts a floor under the market, why gold works as a deflation hedge as well as an inflation hedge, and why he stands by his $10,000 target. He also dismantles the popular "debasement trade" narrative, explains what Kevin Warsh's less transparent, market-following Fed means for investors conditioned to expect a rescue, and walks through the unwinding of the Japanese yen carry trade — which he calls the most important story in the world right now, and the one most likely to make 2027 messy. The episode closes on the darker side of AI: increasingly sophisticated voice-cloned scams aimed at older Americans.Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/More about Rickards: Rickards is a New York Times bestselling author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and several other best-sellers, including The New Great Depression, Aftermath, The Road to Ruin, Death of Money, The New Case for Gold, Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation, and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy, and his newest book MoneyGPT: AI and the Threat to the Global Economy. An investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, Rickards has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. He is also the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a widely-read financial newsletter. Links:  http://www.jamesrickardsproject.com/ https://x.com/RealJimRickardsVisit CallFort.io  or download the app https://apps.apple.com/us/app/callfort/id6752949954Timestamps: 0:00 – Intro: welcome back, Jim Rickards1:04 – Geopolitics and economics have merged: chokepoints and economic warfare3:30 – The US–Iran game of chicken: what each side is betting6:13 – Regime change isn't happening — and why killing leaders backfired10:42 – Lost credibility and the Iran–Oman deal the US wasn't part of14:41 – The midterm clock, and how Iran keeps the Strait closed17:23 – [Sponsor: Augusta Precious Metals]19:04 – Gold's drawdown: the Jim Rogers 50% rule and fractal math24:04 – Why gold goes much higher — and the $10,000 call25:03 – What's driving gold: central banks, deflation, flat mine supply31:15 – Why the "debasement trade" narrative is wrong33:00 – Inside the primary dealer world and the old Fed35:00 – Kevin Warsh, killing the dot plot, and a whole new Fed38:16 – [Sponsor: Monetary Metals]40:03 – The Fed's only real job — and what Friedman got wrong44:13 – The yen carry trade: the most important story in the world48:55 – The petrodollar, Japan's Treasuries, and the Bessent bailout51:43 – Why currency defenses always fail, and why 2027 gets messy52:50 – AI, sophisticated scams, and the Callfort app59:10 – What's next: climbing Kilimanjaro
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  #400 Michael Howell: The Liquidity Cycle Has Turned, Low Quality Returns for Stocks, The Real Driver Behind Gold 11.08.2026 42мин

  Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of Capital Wars, returns to explain why the global liquidity cycle peaked in late Q3/early Q4 of last year — and what that means for the rest of 2026. His core argument: money is fungible but finite, and a booming real economy is now pulling liquidity out of financial assets, which compresses P/E multiples even as earnings look fine. That puts us in what he calls the speculation phase: rising bond yields, strong commodities, pressured crypto, and low-quality equity returns where index gains mask widespread underperformance. He also pushes back hard on the popular "debasement trade" explanation for gold, arguing the real driver is the People's Bank of China injecting liquidity to devalue the yuan internally while holding it steady externally — with Chinese retail locked out of crypto and the Shanghai Gold Exchange now setting the marginal price. On the bond side, he lays out how the Treasury is quietly monetizing through front-end issuance and buybacks — private-sector QE under Treasury direction — a strategy that works until it doesn't, with Japan's move from 50bps to nearly 3% as the cautionary tale. His bottom line: range-bound Wall Street, no bonds, gold and silver on weakness, and watch commodities for the first sign the boom is ending.Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links:  Website: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/ Twitter/X https://x.com/crossbordercapSubstack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/ Book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/30303929020:00 The call: range-bound market, own gold0:20 Welcome back, Michael Howell1:19 Two pools of money: markets vs. the real economy2:30 The liquidity cycle has peaked3:20 What this phase looks like4:48 Why a booming economy is bad for stocks5:22 The P/E multiple is where liquidity shows up6:34 Late cycle, explained7:38 Augusta Precious Metals9:29 Global liquidity vs. the world business cycle10:45 Atlanta Fed nowcast near 6%11:54 The K-shaped economy is global12:45 Monetary inflation vs. Main Street inflation14:45 Speculation now, turbulence next15:15 The cycle map17:55 Monetary Metals19:49 Gold: it isn't the debasement trade20:30 It's China: PBOC liquidity22:15 Why gold and not crypto23:14 Inside the PBOC balance sheet25:00 Yuan gold and the 27,000 line26:15 Bond yields track nominal GDP27:40 NGDP at 7-8% vs. a 4.7% ten-year28:18 Treasury QE: funding at the front end30:20 Who's actually buying the debt?30:51 The beach ball under water32:35 The two-year note leads the Fed34:30 The 2022 analogue36:00 Why MOVE matters more than VIX37:08 Treasury buybacks and the volatility cap38:30 Margin debt and the 2026 range call39:31 Parting thoughts: commodities as the warning40:30 Gold, silver, and the ratio to watch
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  #399 Chris Whalen: United Wholesale Mortgage's Disaster, Financial Repression Returns, Gold Breaks Out 08.08.2026 36мин

  In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris breaks down the week across mortgages, rates, and precious metals. He opens with United Wholesale Mortgage, explaining why he believes Matt Ishbia should resign after the company hedged the balance sheet of an acquisition target it didn't own and never won — a misstep that produced a six hundred million dollar loss and forced a rescue from Oak Tree on onerous terms that leave common shareholders at the back of the line. Chris contrasts that with Rocket's standout quarter and lays out his broader housing view: investment banks hold this market together until the IPO fees are booked, then step back, setting up a potential correction next year and a general decline in home prices of ten to twenty percent by 2028. From there the conversation turns to the return of financial repression — short-end yields pushed down while the long end reacts to deficits and inflation — and why, with debt approaching forty trillion, he considers Fed independence a fiction and the Treasury the dog to the Fed's tail. Chris also unpacks the Bank of Japan's thirty-day repo with the Fed, why it lit a fire under gold and silver, and David Kotok's idea of using euro-denominated US credit default swaps to benchmark gold. He closes on taxing wealth over income, the erosion of fiscal credibility, and his gold book research into thirteen hundred years of Byzantine monetary stability.Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcoverUse the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 — Intro1:08 — Why Matt Ishbia should resign from UWM2:30 — The Oak Tree rescue and what it means for shareholders3:31 — Mortgage earnings: PennyMac, loanDepot, Rocket4:23 — Is UWM going to be sold?5:43 — Health of the broader mortgage industry6:50 — Seven percent rates and where volume is coming from7:30 — What the Fed does next, and the long end8:20 — "Misery on the eights" — is the timeline accelerating?9:20 — Housing correction: 10–20% by 202810:40 — The return of financial repression12:00 — Why the Treasury benefits, and the shift to T-bills13:06 — "The Treasury is the dog, the Fed is the tail"13:40 — The dollar, foreign central banks, and gold reserves14:20 — The Bank of Japan repo transaction explained15:14 — What Warsh does if the FOMC wants a hike16:30 — Inflation, diesel exports, and the energy squeeze17:34 — David Kotok on benchmarking gold with credit default swaps18:40 — Why fiscal fear flows into gold19:30 — How far away is a US debt restructuring?21:04 — Taxing wealth instead of income22:42 — What cutting the deficit would actually do to rates25:15 — Back to the BOJ: why it forced gold and silver higher28:00 — What if Japan doesn't take the bonds back?28:48 — Foreign central banks are selling Treasuries29:47 — Does the US care about gold the way the rest of the world does?32:10 — Bessent and the K-shaped economy33:12 — Housekeeping: viewer question episode33:50 — Parting thoughts
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  #398 Marc Faber: The First Phase Of The Greatest Investment Mania Is Being Pierced 06.08.2026 50мин

  Dr. Marc Faber editor and publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, returns to argue that we are witnessing the first phase of the piercing of the greatest global investment mania. He explains why central bank money printing has inflated asset prices far beyond economic reality — enriching asset holders while ordinary people face a cost of living he estimates is rising 7–12% a year, not the official 3–4%. Faber walks through the cracks already visible: collapsing commercial property values, falling home prices, meme stocks and SPACs that never recovered their 2021 peaks, a narrowing market advance, the semiconductor unwind, and the speculative blow-off in Korea. He argues the 10-year Treasury should yield at least 6.5%, that the Fed should have been hiking rather than cutting, and that the US may already be in recession. With interest costs on federal debt above $1 trillion a year, he says more money printing isn't a choice but an inevitability — and warns that bubbles typically end with the revelation of a massive fraud. His advice is blunt: this is not a market for making money, it's a market for losing the least. He makes the case for broad diversification across cash, bonds, precious metals, and real estate, explains why he refuses to own index funds, shares why Thailand is his largest position, and closes on gold, hyperinflation, and why he thinks the price should already be far higher.Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links:The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report: https://www.gloomboomdoom.comTimestamps:00:00 Intro: Marc Faber returns01:06 The macro picture: money printing and record wealth inequality03:33 Why capitalism made the world rich, and who got left behind05:21 The stock market is in the sky, but ordinary life isn't06:58 First signs the investment mania is being pierced07:35 Why printed money doesn't lift everything at once09:55 Commercial and residential property prices roll over10:45 Meme stocks, SPACs, Mag 7 and the semiconductor unwind11:30 Korea: the biggest bubble nobody's talking about12:15 The missing link: a massive fraud is coming13:48 Nominal vs real: how money printing masks the damage14:45 Real inflation is 7-12%, not 3-4%15:49 Where rates should be: 6.5% on the 10-year16:27 Government debt, $1T interest, and why the deficit can't shrink17:56 The situation is hopeless18:39 Where Faber puts his own money20:20 More money printing is inevitable21:27 Assessing Kevin Warsh at the Fed22:33 The Fed should have hiked, and the US is already in recession23:23 Intervention and the death of free markets25:52 The contrarian bond call and the case for diversification28:17 The government has become the mafia28:42 Why a debt crisis is unavoidable29:55 Sell early, but where do you hide?31:34 Thin ice: why ordinary people are forced to speculate31:59 Affordability at the worst level ever32:25 The passive investing problem35:10 Index concentration vs the other 493 stocks36:13 Lessons from 1987: down 21% in a single day37:26 One year from now: a lot of people will lose a lot of money38:35 Hong Kong war stories: the traders who lost everything40:11 The contrarian buy: Thailand, the failed state41:30 Food self-sufficiency, safety, and life in Asia43:56 Where to find his work45:11 Gold, and why he says it should already be $100,00046:07 Hyperinflation, Zimbabwe, and central bank role models
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  #397 Mickey Maini: What Physics Knows That Markets Don't — And Why the Next 2 Years Are the Toughest 04.08.2026 56мин

  Mickey Maini, founder of Solstice Laboratory, makes his debut on The Julia La Roche Show. In this episode, he lays out the thesis behind his new book The Entropy Trap: financial systems, like all systems, require energy to hold their shape, and as complexity rises and trust decays, the energy needed to maintain order climbs until the system transitions into something new. He argues we're between two systems now, sitting in the third of five stages — control — one policy misstep away from fracture. Maini explains why the Fed's real job this decade is defending collateral rather than setting rates, why three stresses (geopolitics, debt, and innovation) are compounding rather than merely adding for the first time in decades, and why the honest tell on AI is the credit market rather than the equity market. Along the way: what central bank gold buying is actually signaling, his scenario range for gold, the US-China choke point war that will determine who writes the next system, and why the trader who made $100 million in 1929 lost it all while the one who ignored prices did fine.Maini began in investment banking, then scaled an emerging-markets conglomerate from $100 million to over $5 billion as its CEO, then taught at one of Asia's leading public policy schools. Today he runs his family office and Solstice Laboratory (solsticelabs.com) - an independent research lab in Dubai that applies physics to markets and geopolitics, studying the moments when systems stop moving in cycles and change state.Thank you to our sponsors: Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links: The Entropy Trap book: https://www.amazon.com/Entropy-Trap-Physics-Knows-Markets/dp/B0H1ZP7NZX/ref=sr_1_1Substack: https://solsticelaboratory.substack.com/Website: https://solsticelabs.com/Timestamps: 0:00 — Intro and welcome: Mickey Maini, The Entropy Trap1:58 — Order is rented, and the rent just went up2:40 — The five stages: print, spend, control, fracture, force4:24 — 1973 economically, 1938 militarily, 1978 for the Fed6:24 — What tips us from control into fracture9:02 — Why every Fed intervention buys less time than the last13:00 — The Fed's next decade: defending collateral, not setting rates15:42 — Indonesia 1998, and why the models stopped working17:10 — Indonesia had surgery. The US took morphine.20:44 — Three stresses that compound: geopolitics, debt, innovation25:00 — Gold as money's ground state, and what central banks are signaling27:10 — The scenarios: $8K–25K, base case $10–15K30:31 — Livermore, Baruch, Kennedy — who lost it all and who won34:30 — The tell on AI isn't equity. Watch the Oracle CDS.36:00 — 75% of US growth is one trade38:03 — Five to seven years to a new system, the next two the toughest39:04 — China settles in gold. The US builds stablecoins.41:35 — Velocity of stress: the master signal, and why it hasn't turned50:42 — What the dashboard is flashing right now53:04 — Don't own long bonds. Invest in yourself.
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  #396 Chris Whalen: Warsh Has A Credibility Problem, Gold's Real Signal, & Your Annuity May Not Be Safe 01.08.2026 39мин

  In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris joins Julia La Roche to argue that Kevin Warsh has a credibility problem: he's holding rates, avoiding confrontation with a divided board, and saying almost nothing, while the bond market does the tightening for him with the ten-year near 4.7% and mortgages headed toward seven-plus. Whalen's prescription is blunt — take back last year's cuts with two quarter-point hikes, consider a surprise August move, raise margin requirements, and keep shrinking the balance sheet, because Treasury is the dog and the Fed is barely the tail. From there the conversation ranges across a coming diesel and fertilizer shortage nobody in Washington will discuss, gold's role as real money in Asia versus a paper price in the West, and Whalen's own portfolio, from Annaly and Rhythm Capital to Flagstar and roughly a fifth in precious metals. The back half turns spicy with Tom Gober's new guest post on life insurers: private-credit-controlled annuity writers reinsuring liabilities offshore without posting enough assets behind them, hidden by state secrecy laws and rubber-stamped by ratings agencies that were never working for you. Plus PennyMac's bad quarter, George Gleason's construction-lending model at Bank OZK, and mailbag questions on SpaceX and mining stocks.Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Thomas Gober guest article: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira874Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcoverUse the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 — Intro: no, the show isn't being cancelled1:52 — Warsh's first pressers: three dissenters and a chairman who says nothing5:42 — How Warsh gets credibility: take back last year's cuts7:20 — Trump stays quiet on Warsh — plus a coming diesel and fertilizer squeeze8:46 — Is the economy finally slowing? The fading power of deficits10:22 — "Treasury is the dog, the Fed is the tail"11:30 — The case for a surprise August hike and less forward guidance12:56 — Gold, Keith Weiner, and the permanent backwardation thesis15:38 — Gold as bank capital: pledging metal as repo collateral16:37 — Whalen's book: Annaly, Rhythm, miners, energy, Schwab, Flagstar19:41 — PennyMac's ugly quarter and why it drags the whole mortgage group down21:23 — Bank OZK vs. the big banks on commercial real estate23:19 — Tom Gober's guest post: is your life insurer actually solvent?27:00 — Offshore reinsurance, secrecy states, and why ratings won't save you29:36 — Mailbag: SpaceX below IPO price — buy more or bail?31:53 — Mailbag: miners vs. metal, GLD/GDX vs. SLV/SIL35:13 — What's next: mortgage earnings, the bank 50, and the gold book
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  Danielle DiMartino Booth: Nobody's Happy, Cracks Are Showing, & the Bond Market Already Tightened 30.07.2026 35мин

  Danielle DiMartino Booth breaks down a contentious FOMC meeting where new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh held rates steady over three dissents, arguing the "good family fight" reflects a real fault line between district bank presidents and governors rather than idle disagreement. She reads Warsh as deliberately dismantling forward guidance, pushing the Fed to stop acting as the market's referee, and leaning toward a trimmed-mean view of inflation while insisting the 2% target stays non-negotiable. Beneath the policy debate, she sees an economy propped up almost entirely by the top 10% and the AI investment boom, with mounting cracks underneath: widening CCC high-yield spreads, bankruptcies at 15-year highs, record apartment concessions on luxury units, softening wage growth, and falling freight demand across trucking and ocean shipping. Her core worry is that if the top of the K "stutters" — as the AI bubble deflates or the wealth effect fades — the pain trickles down onto an already-struggling bottom half, and she's positioning around gold as credit conditions tighten.Thank you to our sponsors: Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links: Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQIFed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655Timestamps: 00:00 — Intro and welcome00:35 — Immediate take on the FOMC hold with three dissenters; Warsh's "robust discussion" and four questions02:42 — Is it a deeper split? Waller standing with Warsh; district bank presidents vs. governors03:48 — Why strategists are throwing a "hissy fit"; abandoning forward guidance, Fed stepping back as referee05:01 — The 2% inflation target described as non-negotiable05:47 — Did it make sense to hold? The five shocks, "team transitory" slip, trimmed-mean inflation07:13 — Is the door open for a September hike?08:53 — Kalshi prediction-market odds for September (53% hike / 45% hold)09:57 — Market reaction; NASDAQ's late-day fall off a cliff11:52 — Why the FOMC minutes may be the real story12:20 — Economy assessment via alternative data: waste-management volumes, GDP, Indeed wages14:38 — How inflation should really be measured; P&G, purchasing power, World Cup hiring16:09 — Cracks emerging: CCC high-yield spreads, 15-year-high bankruptcies, apartment concessions18:52 — The K-shaped economy, the wealth effect, and international travel as a bellwether21:01 — Does she agree with the hold? Her public call for a hike21:52 — The bond market has done the tightening for the Fed22:11 — The move in gold vs. Bitcoin, and what it signals about credit23:07 — More breakage coming in credit; distressed debt exchanges as "polite" Chapter 1124:29 — What investors are missing: truck stops, ocean freight, inventory restocking, Austria/BMW29:32 — What she's watching into September; tax refunds, World Cup aftermath, the top of the K32:25 — Parting thoughts
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  #394 Chris Whalen: 5% Yields, 7% Mortgages, Double-Digit Inflation & the End of the Party 25.07.2026 38мин

  In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris breaks down why the stablecoin boom may be running out of road — giving the Clarity Act less than 50/50 odds and arguing it could strip the yield out of coins, force issuers offshore, and turn the survivors into banks. He makes the case that stablecoins are little more than "prepaid gift cards," lays out why he's bullish on gold and silver as central banks and China chase physical metal, and warns that real inflation — measured by commodity inputs like energy and sulfur (up 150% since the Iran war), not the CPI — is closing in on double digits. Whalen also sees the 10-year Treasury pushing past 5% and mortgages settling into a "higher for longer" 6.5–7%, flags the mortgage sector as the earnings story to watch, takes aim at Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy, points to safer places to find yield, and keeps circling back to one unsettling parallel: today looks a lot like the 1920s, right before the party ended.Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcoverUse the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 – Intro 0:45 – The Clarity Act: will it kill stablecoins? 3:34 – Do stablecoins have any real use case? 5:17 – Why we may need fewer banks — and more insurers 8:22 – Do stablecoins actually create Treasury demand? 10:16 – Chris's next book: gold 12:20 – Gold's pullback and the bull case for silver 16:37 – Goldman's $4,900 target & John Paulson on gold 17:53 – The BLS quietly redefines inflation 19:40 – A 2% target, a 6% deficit, and 5% yields 22:07 – Why mortgage earnings are the story to watch 24:29 – Affordability, home prices & the blue-state squeeze 26:42 – Why it all rhymes with the 1920s 28:44 – Viewer Q&A: the real double-digit inflation 32:12 – MSTR yields, Saylor & where to find safe income 36:28 – Closing thoughts: the mortgage shakeout ahead
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  #393 Chris Irons: Something Will Break The Market, Sharp Deleveraging Ahead, Why The Fed Will Fold, & Gold Could Hit $7,500 23.07.2026 48мин

  Financial commentator Chris Irons, also known as Quoth the Raven on X and author of the popular QTR Fringe Finance substack, returns to the show with a sobering assessment of markets he says are at or above the highest valuations in history — propped up by a passive bid, options-driven flows, and ten mega-cap names carrying everyone's retirement. Irons explains why he's stepped back from active trading permanently, why he believes the SpaceX IPO's $2 trillion ask may have marked a top in AI euphoria, and why Kevin Warsh's inflation-fighting promises will crumble the moment equities fall 10-20%. He shares where he's finding opportunity — including his early psychedelics call that's crushed the market this year, emerging markets, and beaten-down gold miners — and warns that the most underappreciated risks lie in stablecoins, crypto leverage, private credit, and regional banks. His bottom line: a sharp deleveraging is coming, the Fed will fold at the first sign of discomfort, and gold could hit $7,500 or higher after the next round of money printing.This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: X: https://x.com/QTRResearchSubstack: Viewers/listeners of The Julia La Roche Show get 80% off an annual subscription of QTR's Fringe Finance https://quoththeraven.substack.com/subscribe?coupon=7c8478df&utm_content=207295644Timestamps:00:00 Introduction and welcome back 00:57 Big picture: Fed stuck between a rock and a hard place 03:18 Out-of-control fiscal policy and the "sovereign Ponzi scheme" 05:41 Private equity repackaged in insurance wrappers (2008 echoes) 06:30 SpaceX IPO as a possible top signal for the AI bubble 07:38 Why Chris stepped back from active trading permanently 12:01 "Being right vs. making money" 13:15 Life after trading: clarity, priorities, and more content 14:45 Diagnosing the market: passive bid, gamma squeezes, and index distortion 16:35 The case for equal-weight (RSP) over cap-weighted S&P 18:30 Michael Burry's AI build-out vs. dot-com comparison 21:10 Opportunities: the psychedelics thesis and how it played out 27:00 Gold and miners: buying the pullback, $7,500 gold scenario 30:45 What to expect from a Kevin Warsh-led Fed 34:36 Should inflation even be the Fed's mandate? 36:04 Arbitrary prices and permanently distorted markets 37:45 The vocal track analogy: too many plugins on the economy 40:10 Why active trading is impossible in a headline-driven market 41:27 Most underappreciated risks: stablecoins, Tether, and crypto contagion 43:30 Corporate fraud, private credit, regional banks, and subprime auto46:01 Closing thoughts and subscriber discount
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  #392 George Noble: The Liquidity Cycle Has Turned — Markets Face a "Wile E. Coyote Moment" 21.07.2026 47мин

  George Noble, CIO of Noble Capital Advisors and former Fidelity fund manager under Peter Lynch, returns with a stark warning: the global liquidity cycle has turned. Citing "liquidity king" Michael Howell, Noble argues that surging deficits, sticky inflation, and a worldwide capex boom have stripped away the policy safety net markets have relied on since 2009 — setting up a potential "Wile E. Coyote moment" where stocks take a dirt nap and the Fed can't respond. He says the Fed isn't in control, Mr. Market is, and bond yields at 4.5% are "much too low" — fair value may be closer to 5.5-6%. Noble calls the AI trade "far worse than dot-com," with malinvestment 17 times larger, hyperscalers destroying free cash flow, and semis a "huge short." His playbook: ditch the 60/40 portfolio, own the reflation trade — gold, silver, energy, copper, uranium — and he names specific stocks including SSRM, Coeur, Valaris, and CRGY. Plus: why the yen carry trade could break, the TLT-in-Turkish-lira lesson on real money, and his most emphatic call of all — "run, don't walk" from SpaceX before the float unlock. And details on his Best Stock Ideas Summit, July 22nd.Thank you to our sponsors: Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links: George Noble's Best Stock Ideas Online Summit: https://noble-capevents.com/X: https://x.com/gnoble79Substack: https://substack.com/@georgenobleTimestamps: 0:00 — Intro; George's Best Stock Ideas Summit July 22nd1:10 — The global liquidity cycle has turned: Michael Howell's warning4:31 — "Risk assets are extremely challenged" — rotation and dispersion is the real story5:30 — Energy vs. Mag 7: free cash flow tells the story7:03 — Tech is really 50% of the market — why the indices will struggle8:20 — "Warsh is not in control, Mr. Market is"10:04 — Why Warsh will blink: the market will force the Fed's hand10:28 — America's Liz Truss moment? Lending to "the Bank of Julia" at 4.5%13:34 — Policy options are gone: why this time the Fed can't rescue markets14:55 — The "Wile E. Coyote moment" ahead for markets16:17 — Japan: 30-year high JGB yields, the yen, and the carry trade risk19:01 — Path vs. prediction: why bond yields are "much too low" — 5.5-6% fair value23:27 — Why the economy shrugs off higher rates (and why that's bearish)25:17 — All fiat is devaluing against real assets: the dollar fell 60% against gold27:17 — Buying the gold correction; why miners could double or triple28:05 — The TLT in Turkish lira: a lesson in your unit of account30:10 — Why 60/40 is the worst allocation right now — "certificates of confiscation"34:07 — "Far worse than dot-com": the margin bubble and 17x the malinvestment36:29 — The internet grew 25 million percent — and the stocks still crashed 90%39:21 — George names names: SSRM, Coeur, Valaris, CRGY, uranium, junior copper40:42 — Parting thoughts: the golden age of stock picking41:45 — SpaceX: "run, don't walk" — why the float unlock means a crash is coming43:00 — The Best Stock Ideas Summit: 15 investors, one pick each, July 22nd
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  #391 Chris Whalen: $4 Trillion Private Credit Risk, Double-Digit Inflation & Housing's 2005 Warning 18.07.2026 33мин

  In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris breaks down a blockbuster week of bank earnings — and why the record numbers mask a growing problem. Wall Street trading and investment banking revenues are exploding, but banks aren't making money on money, as asset yields fall for a sixth straight quarter and private credit giants like Apollo poach deals. Whalen flags roughly $4 trillion in bank exposure to non-depository financial institutions, warns "there are no regulators in Washington" watching the risks, and says the housing market's business-purpose loan boom "feels like 2005." He sticks with his double-digit inflation call, arguing diesel — not oil — is the real story, and predicts fuel shortages, maybe even rationing, before the midterm elections. Plus: Kevin Warsh's Greenspan-style Fed debut, gold's selloff as a buying opportunity, viewer questions on Annaly, and a World Cup prediction.Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira869Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcoverUse the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 — Intro and welcome 00:55 Bank earnings and oil prices soar as Middle East war reignites2:36 — Bank earnings disconnect: Wall Street booms, lending shrinks3:55 — Why big deals keep going to private credit (Apollo, Blackstone)5:59 — The hidden risk: banks lending directly to private credit funds9:06 — The $4 trillion exposure — "no regulators watching the hen house"10:07 — The "Everything Bubble": rising rates, falling yields, record home prices12:06 — Kevin Warsh's Greenspan-style Fed: "inflation is a choice"14:40 — Rate hike odds cool — will the Fed wait until after midterms?15:42 — Energy shortages building: why the Trump administration stays quiet16:45 — Double-digit inflation call stands; possible rationing by Election Day17:53 — Iran destroyed Gulf refining capacity — years to rebuild21:52 — Housing: sales fall 2.4%, median price hits record high23:14 — "It feels like 2005" — DSCR and non-QM loans flash warning signs27:19 — Gold selloff: why Chris is buying more (especially silver)29:37 — Viewer Q: How rates affect Annaly (NLY) — it's all about the spread31:03 — Viewer Q: Warsh's 2% target vs. $80 oil — a double whammy?32:27 — Chris's World Cup prediction: Argentina